Bloomberg Surveillance 10/23/2023
>> THIS IS A TIME FOR HUMILITY AND MULTI-ASSET INVESTING. >> FOR LIKELY SEE LAG EFFECTS AND POLICY TIGHTENING. >> RESET TO A HIGHER RETURN.
>> A HUGE MOSAIC OF THE FACTORS THAT ARE INPUTS TO WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE OVERALL MARKET. >> CHALLENGE IN THE BOND MARKET, SUCCESS IN THE EQUITY MARKET. >> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE."
TOM: GOOD MORNING. AN HISTORIC MONDAY FOR THE BOND MARKET. JOINING US TODAY IS JONATHAN FERRO WORKING FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MANUS CRANNY WILL BE WITH US. MANUS: GOOD MORNING. YOU SEE IT ON TELEVISION AND HEAR IT ON RADIO, 5.01% OF THE 10 YEAR YIELD. HIS STREET THIS MORNING.
AS HISTORY MADE THIS MORNING. THE FIRST LISA: FIRST TIME YOU SEEN IT -- LISA: THE FIRST TIME YOU HAVE SEEN TREASURIES GO ABOVE 5%. ON: WE HAVE A LOT OF GOOD THOUGHTS -- TOM: WE HAVE A LOT OF GOOD THOUGHTS ON THAT. A SHARP NOTE IN THE FINANCIAL TIMES. HOBBIT L ARIAN LOOKING -- MOHAMED EL-ERIAN LOOKING AT IT
SAYING IT IS GLOBAL. MANUS: THERE IS THE OVERALL MOMENTUM. WITH OUR SAYING WHY ARE ASSET MANAGERS AND INSURERS NOT STEPPING IN YOUR THEY SIMPLY DON'T HAVE THE COMPLEXITY. THEY ARE NOT FORCED INTO IT AND SO THE APPETITE IS NOT THERE.
YOU HAVE SOME OF THE HEDGES. TOM: SHOULD WE ASK HIM BANKING QUESTIONS SO HE FEELS COMFORTABLE? LET'S TAKE YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH UBS. HOW SCARED WOULD YOU SUGGEST THE BIG BANKS ARE WITH THE PRICE DOWN, YIELD UP UNRAVELING? MANUS: THIS WILL PUSH MAJOR BANKS TO REVIEW.
YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE MAJOR REVIEW OF RISK THIS MORNING. WE ARE SHIFTING INTO A DIFFERENT PARADIGM. TOM: ONE MORE QUESTION AND THEN SOME GEOPOLITICS. HOW DOES A 5% YIELD READ DOWN THROUGH CREDIT? LISA: IT IS A GOOD QUESTION. IT HASN'T BEEN THAT TRAUMATIC SO FAR. JIM REED AT DEUTSCHE BANK WRITING THAT HE DOESN'T I. MANY PEOPLE ASK HOW CAN IT BE
THAT FOR 20 YEARS WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE EXISTENTIAL RISK OF YIELDS RISING. AT WHAT POINT DOES THAT CHANGE? TOM: THE FANCY DISCUSSION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN. AN HORRIFIC WEEKEND OF WAITING FOR WAR AND HUMANITARIAN AID.
LISA: IF YOU LISTEN TO THE SUNDAY TALK SHOWS, YOU HEARD ANTONY BLINKEN SAYING WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT OUR TROOPS IN THE REGION. IT DIDN'T SOUND LIKE WE WERE GETTING CLOSER TO RESOLUTION BUT SEEMS LIKE THEY ARE HOLDING OFF ON A GROUND INVASION, POSSIBLY FOR HOSTAGES. TOM: TOTAL ENTERPRISE VALUE, IT IS REAL SIMPLE. CHEVRON, BUYS NEW YORK JETS PETROLEUM IS REALLY WHAT IS GOING ON. THIS IS A HERITAGE STOCK FOR THOSE OF US IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS A HUGE TRANSACTION CHEVRON TO BYPASS -- TO BUY HESS.
LISA: I WASN'T CONNECTING IT. TOM: THIS IS THE NEW YORK JETS PETROLEUM CONVERSATION. MANUS: I THOUGHT HE WAS GOING GREEN JERSEY. NOTHING TO DO WITH THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF OIL THEY GOT. TOM: THE BEGINNING OF MY DATA CHECK IS WHAT I DON'T KNOW IS THE 10 YEAR REAL YIELD IS AT. LISA: ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT THE HIGHEST REAL YIELDS WE HAVE SEEN SINCE 2009.
DO WE SEE THAT CONTINUE AS NOMINAL RISES? A RISK OF FEEL IN THE MARKET AS WE GET EARNINGS FROM 30% OF THE S&P SO FAR THIS WEEK. EARNINGS FROM MICROSOFT, AMAZON THURSDAY. THIS HAS BEEN THE BOONDOGGLE BEHIND THE GAINS THIS YEAR. GOOGLE, ALPHABET, 54%. SUN, 49%. HOW HIGH IS THE BAR FOR THESE
BEHEMOTHS? MANUS: AND THEY CONTINUE TO RUN? THIS WILL POINT OUT TO FIVE AND A QUARTER AND FIVE AND HALF. MORE IMPORTANTLY, IT HAS TO KICK IN. TOM: MANUS IS THE PHONE TO HIS BROKER. CONTINUE WITH THE BRIEF. LISA:
TALKING ABOUT HIGHER RATES, WE GET CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS, BANK OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY, ECB THURSDAY. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR NOTHING AND NO ADDITIONAL RATE HIKES BUT THAT WILL BE INTERESTING BECAUSE THEY HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT SITUATION. TOM: LAGARDE IN MARA CASH IN -- IN MARRAKECH. LISA: WE GET THE THIRD QUARTER GDP PRINTS FROM THE U.S. ON THURSDAY INCLUDING CORE PCE. PERSONAL SPENDING.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE ATLANTA FED GDP, 5.4% EXPANSION RATES IN THE UNITED STATES. TOM: FRIDAY AND I WERE WASTING AWAY IN MARGARITAVILLE IT WAS SUCH A SUCCESSFUL -- STRESSFUL WEEK. JOINING US NOW ON THE MARKETS, LARRY ADAM, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT RAYMOND JAMES. AS YOU WRITE THIS MORNING TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WITH THE YEAR END NOTE WILL BE IN A BATH OF UNCERTAINTY, WHAT IS YOUR LEVEL OF CONVICTION? LARRY: WE HAVE A LOT OF CONVICTION ON WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE MARKETS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT IT IS OLD DATA.
THE GDP REPORT WILL TALK ABOUT THE SPENDING WE WERE DOING AT THE FOURTH OF JULY. THAT IS A LONG TIME AGO. IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN REAL TIME, THIS ECONOMY IS STARTING TO SLOW. BY THE FIRST QUARTER OF NEXT YEAR WE DO HAVE A MILD RECESSION UNFOLDING.
LISA: YOU TALKED ABOUT THIS AND IT IS SHOCKING WHEN IT CLIMBED ABOVE 5%. DO YOU HAVE MORE CONVICTION OR LESS CONVICTION AS YOU SEE HOW MUCH YIELDS ARE RISING? LARRY: I WOULD HAVE TO SAY MORE. I THINK THE HIGHER INTEREST RATES ARE STARTING TO BITE ON THIS ECONOMY. SMALL BUSINESS 10%, CREDIT CARDS 21%. IT WILL TAKE EFFECT SOON. WHY HAS IT HAPPENED, BECAUSE WE HAD CASH IN SAVINGS ACCOUNTS. COMPANIES WERE FLUSH. A LOT OF THAT HAS EVAPORATED
AND I THINK THIS WILL SLOW THE ECONOMY DOWN QUICKLY. MANUS: WHAT IMPACT DOES THIS HAVE ON CREDIT? WILL YOU SEE CREDITS MOVING HIGHER? LARRY: DON'T THINK CREDIT IS PRICING IN THE RISK WE SEE GOING FORWARD. AS INTEREST RATES GO LOWER, I THINK YOU WILL START TO SEE THE SPREADS WIDE NOW.
PARTICULARLY IN HIGH-YIELD, I DON'T THINK THEY ARE PRICING IN ANY RECESSION. TOM: WHAT ARE PEOPLE DOING? RAYMOND JAMES HAS A REACH OF INVESTED RETIREMENT MONEY. I AM ASSUMING THAT PEOPLE IN BONDS ARE LOOKING AT OCTOBER STATEMENTS WITH BLOOD IN THE STREETS. WHAT IS RETAIL DOING? LARRY: I THINK ONE OF THE REASONS WHY IS WHEN WE TALK TO RETAIL INVESTORS, KNOWN AS ANNA TO GO OUT ON THE CURB. THE LONG YIELD AT 4%.
YOU START TO SEE THE YIELDS START TO BE SIMILAR AT 5% THIS MORNING, YOU WILL SEE THAT APPETITE INCREASE. WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT BEING MORE BALANCED RECENTLY. AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE FED BEING DONE WITH THE TIGHTENING CYCLE, THAT IS WHEN YOU WANT TO EXTEND OUT AND WE ARE IN THAT WINDOW WHEN YOU CAN TRANSITION AND TAKE MORE WITH YOUR BOND PORTFOLIOS. LISA: YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT DATA
SHOWING STRENGTH THAT IS A BACKWARD LOOKING. IF YOU LOOK AT EARNINGS WE ARE GETTING, IT IS A MIXED PICTURE AND CONFIRMS SOME OF THE STRENGTH AND ONGOING BASIS AND HOW MUCH ARE YOU WILLING TO CHANGE HER VIEW ON INCREASING CAUTION IF THE EARNINGS WE GET IS A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF THE S&P SHOWS THAT STRENGTH IN BIG FORCE? LARRY: THIS IS AN IMPORTANT WEEK FROM EARNINGS PERSPECTIVE. 40% OF THE MARKET CAP. THE ECONOMY IS NOT NECESSARILY THE EQUITY MARKET. A LOT OF COMPANIES COMING OUT
HAVE BEEN IMMUNE. YOU GO TO THE TECHNOLOGY SPACE AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY WHEN IT COMES TO RETAIL AND BANKING THINK THAT IS WHERE YOU WILL SEE MORE WEAKNESS GOING FORWARD. THIS IS A BIG WEEK BECAUSE STARKLY THIS IS THE THIRD WEEK OF EARNINGS SEASON AND IF TENDS TO BE WHERE YOU SEE THE EXPECTATIONS MOVE HIGHER. IF THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN, WE WILL BE CHALLENGED AT THE RALLY GOING FORWARD. MANUS: APPS ESTIMATES FOR PROFITS WERE A LITTLE HIGH. WHAT SCENARIO WILL BE MOST
IMPORTANT FOR YOU AS YOU LOOK AT BIG TECH EARNINGS AND OTHERS DOWN THE PIKE? IS IT GUIDANCE FOR 2024 MORE SPECIFIC? LARRY: IT IS ABOUT THE GUIDANCE. EARNINGS ARE INFLATED FOR NEXT YEAR. WE ARE LOOKING FOR EARNINGS TO TREAD WATER. WE WILL BE SUMMER BETWEEN 220 FOUR TO 30 NEXT YEAR. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DIGESTING OF THE EVENTUAL WEAKNESS IN THIS ECONOMY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE FACTORED IN.
GUIDANCE WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT. TOM: THANK YOU SO MUCH. NOVEMBER 2 WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH APPLE EARNINGS. JONATHAN FERRO MILLS INCOME I AM IN THE POOL WITH AN UMBRELLA AND COCKTAIL COME HELP ME WITH DATA. 2-10 SPREAD GOING FROM -100 BASIS POINTS, SLAMMING UP TO -11 BASIS POINTS. WE COULD SEE TWOS AND TENSE. LISA: WE COULD SEE DISSEN VERSION IN A DRAMATIC WAY.
EVERYONE -- WE COULD SEE DISSEN VERSION -- DIS-VERSION. TOM: TO BOTH OF YOU HERE, EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED BUT HOW DOES JAPAN RESPOND TO A 5% 10 YEAR YIELD? MANUS: THE BIGGEST REST FOR JAPAN IS THEY HAVE A SLOWING GDP. IF THEY WERE TO TWEAK THE RATES YOU HAVE A TRILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TREASURIES THAT THEY OWN. WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FLOW OF TREASURIES IF THEY TWEAK?
TOM: RENT CRUDE NOT -- BRENT CRUDE HASN'T MOVED. >> WE EXPECT THAT THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF ESCALATION BY IRANIAN PROXIES AGAINST OUR FORCES AND OUR PERSONNEL. WE ARE TAKING STEPS TO MAKE SURE WE CAN EFFECTIVELY DEFEND OUR PEOPLE AND RESPOND DECISIVELY IF WE NEED TO. THIS IS NOT WHAT WE WANT IN OUR LOOKING FOR.
DON'T WANT ESCALATION. TOM: SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. JULIE NORMAN WILL JOIN US SHE IS ABSOLUTELY DEFINITIVE AND ALL OF HER ACADEMIC WORK CONSIDERING TERRORISM AND THE IAGO FEE OF THE EASTERN -- AND MIDDLE EAST. WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE WEEKEND? OLIVER: THE RELEASE OF TWO HOSTAGES RECORD BY THE QATARI'S. THEY SAID THEY RELEASE THEM ON HUMANITARIAN GROUNDS.
NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THAT MEANS AND WHY THEY CHOSE THESE HOSTAGES. THE SECOND IS ABOUT AID. FIRST TRUCKS WE SAW A ROLL INTO GAZA, A FRACTION OF WHAT IS NEEDED ACCORDING TO EVERY ORGANIZATION OR THE U.N. SAID IT NEEDS TO GET CLOSER TO 100 TRUCKS A DAY TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE. YOU HAVE CONTINUED HAMMERING OF GAZA. THAT IS THE MAIN THEATER OF WAR
GOING ON. MORE AND MORE ON THE NORTHERN BORDER IN LEBANON. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE NOTIONS OF ESCALATION. THERE HAVE BEEN PINPOINT INCURSIONS I THE ISRAELIS INTO GAZA. -- INCURSIONS BY THE ISRAELIS INTO GAZA LI. LISA: WE KNOW WHY THE HASN'T MET A GROUND INVASION YET? OLIVER: THERE IS A CONCERN OF HOSTAGES. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE
EQUATION FOR THE ISRAELIS. THEY WANT TO FULLY DISMANTLE HAMAS THAT THERE ARE ALL OF THESE INPUTS, WHETHER THE HOSTAGES BUT ALSO THE MORAL IMPERATIVE OF REDUCING CIVILIAN CASUALTIES TO VERY PRACTICAL CONSIDERATION WHICH IS GETTING THE POLITICAL SUPPORT OF THE REST OF THE WORLD. WE HAD THE ARAB SUMMIT OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE KING OF JORDAN SAID THE MESSAGE TO THE AIRPORT IS LOUD AND CLEAR FROM THE WEST IS THAT PALESTINIAN LIVES MATTER LESS THAN IS REALLY ONCE AND THAT IS A VERY DANGEROUS MESSAGE TO BE PUTTING OUT THERE. TOM: THANK YOU VERY MUCH, OLIVER CROOK, IN TEL AVIV. THIS IS AN IMMENSE PLEASURE. DR. JULIE NORMAN, AUTHOR OF THE PALESTINIAN PRISONERS MOVEMENT, RESISTANCE AND DISOBEDIENCE. BUT BASICALLY IS THE DEFINITIVE EXPERT ON THE SHADES OF PALESTINE OVER THE LAST 20 AND INDEED THE YEARS BACK TO 1948. I WANT TO GO BACK 13 YEARS TO YOUR EFFORT ON THE SECOND PALESTINE AND THE PALESTINE OF NOW SEEMS TO BE DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TERRORISTS OF HAMAS AND OTHER SHADES OF PALESTINE.
CAN YOU DELINEATE THE OTHER SHADES OR IS IT A MYSTERY? DR. NORMAN: IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO DIFFERENTIATE HAMAS AND OTHER ARMED ACTORS FROM THE MAJORITY OF THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE AND FROM OTHER ASPECTS OF PALESTINIAN POLITICS. IT IS THE MAIN BODY IN THE WEST BANK AND I WOULD POINT OUT THAT THE MAIN PARTNER FOR THE WEST, ISRAEL, THERE ARE SOME THAT ARE OPEN -- HOPING FOR THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY CAN HAVE FUTURE LEADERSHIP IN GAZA AFTER THE WAR. IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.
TOM: TOM: THEY TOM: ARE WRAPPED BY THEIR OWN CORRUPTION. A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THEIR VIABILITY. TOM: IF I LINK ISRAELI THREATS NORTH TO HEZBOLLAH AND I KNOW YOU HAVE WRITTEN ON TWITTER, IS THERE A LINKAGE OF COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE THREE GEOGRAPHIES OR EVEN IS THERE A LINK OF COMMUNICATION WITH THEM BACK TO IRAN? JULIE: DEFINITELY COMMUNICATION BETWEEN GAZA AND THE WEST BANK.
HAMAS HAS NUMBER SHIP IN BOTH PLACES AND BOTH ARE FOCUSED ON THE PALESTINIAN CAUSE. HEZBOLLAH IS DIFFERENCE. THEY COORDINATE TO SOME DEGREE WITH HAMAS BUT ARE A SEPARATE ENTITY BASED IN IRAN AND MOST OPERATIONS HAVE BEEN IN REGARDS TO ISRAELI OPERATIONS IN LEBANON OR AT THE BORDER. OF HAMAS AND HAS FULL OF RECEIVE BACKING FROM IRAN BUT OVER HAS FULL A IS STRONGER -- AND OVER HEZBOLLAH IS STRONGER. MANUS: IN CAIRO THERE WAS A PEACE CONFERENCE, STRONG WORDS FROM KING ABDULLAH, CHASTENING THE WEST. BUT ISRAEL, HAMAS, THE U.S. AND IRAN WERE NOT AT THIS CONFERENCE. DO YOU SEE THIS AS A STEP ONE
FOUR PROGRESS FOR THE AERO -- ARAB RESPOND -- RESPONSE? JULIE: WE OFTEN SEE THE SUMMIT IN REGULAR TIMES AND ESPECIALLY DURING WARTIME WITH DIFFERENT RHETORIC COMING OUT. I WOULD ECHO WHAT OLIVER SAID A FEW MINUTES AGO, AND THAT IS A REAL CONCERN FROM THE U.S. AND INCREASINGLY IN ISRAEL ABOUT THE OPERATION. ISRAEL WANTS TO DEPLETE HAMAS AND HAVE THIS OPERATION THAT DOES THAT BUT AT THE SAME TIME YOU'RE TRYING TO THREAD THE NEEDLE OF HAVING SUCH WIDESPREAD CIVILIAN CASUALTIES THAT YOU ARE INCREASING SUPPORT FOR HAMAS AND RESISTANCE TO ISRAEL. THERE ARE BOTH STRATEGIC AND MORAL CONVICTIONS THERE THAT THEY ARE AWARE OF. LISA: I WAS READING REPORTS THAT THE O SAY WE ARE BEEFING UP SECURITY FOR OUR OWN TROOPS IN THE AREA.
IT SEEMED LIKE THINGS WERE ESCALATING AND THE PRICE OF OIL IS GOING DOWN. PEOPLE ARE SAYING IT IS DE-ESCALATING. WHICH IS IT? JULIE: I CAN COMMENT ON THE POLITICAL. IF DE-ESCALATION HAPPENS IN REAL TERMS YOU WOULD SEE THE INFLUENCE ON OIL PRICES. ONE OF THE VERY STRONG CONCERNS OF THE U.S.
AND ONE REASON THEY ARE HOPING ISRAEL WILL BE MORE CAUTIOUS IS THE CONCERN OF ESCALATION, NOT ONLY TO PUT DETERRENCE MEASURES IN PLACE BUT TO MAKE SURE U.S. IS READY AND PREPARED FOR ANY IMPOSSIBLE ACTIONS FROM IRAN'S PROXIES. TOM: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US ON HER WORK ON PALESTINE OVER THE DECADES WITH THE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE AT LONDON. MANUS CRANNY, YOU MENTIONED ONE OF MY FAVORITE PEOPLE, MR. GOETSCH. YOU HAD HIM ON. WHAT DID HE SAY THIS MORNING? MANUS: IT IS VERY INTERESTING HOW ALL OF THE MEDIA, VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OF THE MEETING IN CAIRO. HIS POINT WAS UNLESS YOU HAVE THE U.S. AND IRAN WHICH IS WHAT WE ARE
WORRIED ABOUT, THE PROXIES AND ESCALATIONS, THAT IN MANY WAYS YOU NEED MORE POWER BEHIND THAT GATHERING FOR YOU SEE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT. KING ABDULLAH SPOKE AND I WOULD ENCOURAGE IF YOU WANT TO UNDERSTAND OTHER ASPECTS OF THIS , LISTEN TO HIS SPEECH. TOM: ABDULLAH AND JORDAN WITH HIS AMERICAN LINKS ARE EXTRAORDINARY. YOU LIVED IN DUBAI, WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP OF THEM IN THE COUNTRY? MANUS: THE UAE WANTS THIS TO DE-ESCALATE. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THEY WANT TO ESCALATE. TOM: MANUS CRANNY WITH YEARS OF REPORTING ON DUBAI.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR COVERAGE OF THE WAR WITH IRAN AND HAMAS. TOM: GOOD MORNING. JONATHAN FERRO ON ASSIGNMENT. LISA:
HIS ASSIGNMENT IS VERY NICE. I WOULD LIKE TO GO ON A SIMILAR ONE. TOM: IT IS NOT A CRUISE SHIP. HE WOULD BE UP WITH THE CAPTAIN. LISA: HE WOULD BE HIDING IN HIS ROOM. TOM: ENJOY YOUR WEEK.
MANUS CRANNY JOINS US. IT IS A QUIET MONDAY BUT AN HISTORIC MONDAY, THE 10 YEAR YIELD WITHIN THE LAST HOUR PRINTS OF 5%. THE 10 YEAR YIELD, FIVE .16% ON THE 30 YEAR BOND.
THE 30 YEAR MORTGAGE AT 8.01%. S&P NEGATIVE 26. THE VIX WELL OUT OVER 20. 22.84. MAYBE THAT IS INDICATIVE OF THE TENSION. DOLLAR FRACTIONALLY STRONGER. OIL, 92 ON BRENT CRUDE. LISA: JUST TO FOLLOW ON WITH THE
YIELD DISCUSSION, UP ONE FULL PERCENTAGE POINT ON THE 10 YEARS SINCE AUGUST. UP 40 BASIS POINTS IN THE PAST WEEK. ON GEOPOLITICS, ISRAEL HOLDING OFF ON A GROUND INVASION OF GAZA AS DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS CONTINUE TO RELEASED HOSTAGES. PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS BEEN REACHING WITH ALL THE COUNTERPARTS TRYING TO PREVENT THE CONFLICT. HE IS ASKING FOR CONTINUED FLOW OF AID INTO GAZA. TOM: THEY SAID YOU HAVE TO GO TO BEIRUT AND UNDERSTAND THE ODDITIES OF BEIRUT. MANUS CRANNY ON THE NORTHERN BORDER. IT IS SURREAL, ISN'T IT? VISHWANATH:
-- MANUS: IT IS SURREAL. THE RISK TO THE WORLD AS A PROXY OF HEZBOLLAH COMES UP MORE AGGRESSIVELY IN THIS TURNS INTO SOMETHING ISRAEL DOESN'T WANT. TOM: IN CAIRO, ARE THEY IN SUPPORT? ARE THERE SHADES OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HAMAS AND HEZBOLLAH? MANUS: THEY ARE ALL OF CONCERN TO ISRAEL, THE U.S.
AND THE WEST. TO THAT END IT IS ABOUT ESCALATION. LISA: ONE OF THE HARDEST PARTS IS EXTRICATING GOVERNMENTS THAT ARE NOT HAMAS OR HEZBOLLAH FROM THE GOVERNMENTS THAT ARE. HEZBOLLAH HAS A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE LEADERSHIP IN LEBANON. MANUS: NONE OF THESE PROXIES WOULD BE RAISING THE VEXATION WITH TACIT APPROVAL FROM IRAN. THAT IS THE BACK STORY TO ANY
OF THESE PROXIES. LISA: WE WILL CATCH UP WITH ANNMARIE HORDERN TO GET ON THAT. WE DON'T HAVE A HOUSE SPEAKER. WE HAVE NINE POTENTIAL CANDIDATES ON THE SHORT THE STTE FOR THE VACANT POSITION AMONG REPUBLICANS AFTER JIM JORDAN'S COLLAPSE FOR HOUSE SPEAKER SHIP LAST WEEK. THERE WILL BE A FORUM HERE AND PEOPLE ARE SICK OF THIS. WRITE NOW A SURVEY COMES OUT, PEOPLE ARE LIKE, JUST GET ON WITH IT.
MANUS: I THOUGHT BRITISH POLITICS WAS TOUGH GOING DURING BREXIT. YOU JUST TAKE ME TO A WHOLE NEW LEVEL. TOM: IT LOOKS LIKE HOLLYWOOD SQUARES AND I WILL SAY THAT I REMEMBER STEPPING ON THE ICE YEARS AGO WITH A BUNCH OF THUGS IN MINNESOTA.
THEY REALLY PLAY HOCKEY. ONE SAID WE NEED AN ALL-AMERICAN WORLD CLASS HOCKEY PLAYER RUNNING THE HOUSE. LISA: THERE YOU GO. YOU CAN PUT YOUR HAT IN THE
RING, TOM. THIS I FIND INTERESTING, CHEVRON AGREEING TO BYPASS FOR 60 BILLION DOUBT -- BUY HES S FOR $60 BILLION. THIS IS THE SECOND MAJOR DEAL IN JUST TWO WEEKS. WE HAD THE EXXON ONE A FEW WEEKS AGO AND WHAT THIS HIGHLIGHTS IS THE NEED FOR EFFICIENCY, OF ECONOMIES OF SCALE AND THE FEELING THAT MAYBE IT WILL GET DONE THIS TIME AROUND AND THERE WON'T BE ANYONE TO INTERCEDE.
TOM: PUBLISHING AND GOING TO THE GEOGRAPHY, SOUTH OF AMERICA. THERE WILL BE A DEFINITIVE MOMENT IN THE 10:00 HOUR, ALIX STEEL IN CONVERSATION WITH THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER OF CHEVRON AND MIKE WORTH. HE IS THE SON OF LEON HESS. LISA: THE MESSAGES HAVE YOU GOTTEN ABOUT TRUCKS? PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE HESS TRUCKS FROM CHILDHOOD. TOM: I DIDN'T HAVE THEM IN MY CHILDHOOD APPEARED IN THE 1960'S AND 1970'S, JOE NAMATH FOOTBALL AND THE IDEA WAS YOU WERE COOL IF YOU HAD THAT TRUCK. MY FATHER WANTED TO SAVE A
PENNY AND A HALF ON GAS. HE WOULD DRIVE BY AND WE WOULD SAY, THE TRUCK IS OVER HERE. MANUS: IS THAT WE YOU SAID TO YOUR SON, YOU HAVE TO SAVE A BUCK? TOM: I LOST MY DRIVERS LICENSE. CARL WEINBERG JOINS US NOW AND HE HAD AN OIL TRUCK. I WANT TO GET A SUMMATION OF EVERYTHING ON THIS POLITICAL ECONOMY AND LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. WHAT IS THE CHARACTER OF OUR
HIGHER INTEREST RATES, YOUR HIGH-FREQUENCY ECONOMICS IS INTEREST RATE ANALYSIS FORWARD. WHAT DOES THIS 5% YIELD MEAN? CARL: TO THE ECONOMY I DON'T THINK IT MEANS MUCH. LISA, YOU ARE EXCITED IN THE RISE OF BOND YIELDS IN THE PAST YOU WEEKS. I WONDER WHERE YOU WERE BACK IN 1980 AND 1981 WHEN RATES WERE RISING BY 1% OR TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS AND BOND YIELDS WERE RAISING AT A PERCENTAGE POINT A WEEK AT ONE PERIOD IN TIME. THAT WAS REAL TIGHTENING AND THE KIND THAT PUNISHES AN ECONOMY.
AT 5%, WE ARE ONLY THREE PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE THE INFLATION TARGET AND ONLY A PERCENTAGE POINT ABOVE CURRENT INFLATION. THIS IS NOT PUTATIVELY RESTRICTIVE. WE DON'T HAVE TO BE AFRAID OF REAL INTEREST RATES. WE HAVE TO ADAPT TO THEM IN FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE REAL ECONOMY.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, WE WILL SEE LESS HOUSING ACTIVITY AS PEOPLE GET OVER STICKER SHOP ON ASH STICKER SHOCK ON MORTGAGES -- STICKER SHOCK ON MORTGAGES. LISA: WE COULD END UP SEEING THE U.S. AVOID RECESSION AND GDP COME IN STRONGLY AT MORE THAN 4% IN THE THIRD ORDER AND IS STILL MAINTAIN THESE INTEREST RATES AND GET DOWN TO 2% INFLATION. CARL: I'M NOT SAYING THERE WILL BE A RECESSION. INEVITABLY, THERE WILL BE A RECESSION. THE CURRENT RISE WE SEE IN THE STREETS AND YIELDS IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE WHAT CAUSES IT.
I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO CAUSE IT BUT WHERE WE ARE NOW WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST PRIOR TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, REAL INTEREST RATES HIGHER THAN THEY ARE NOW THE ECONOMY WORKED BEAUTIFULLY. INTEREST RATES ARE HIGHER BUT NOT HIGH. I WOULD SAY WE ARE GETTING BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS OF REAL INTEREST RATES. LOOK AT THE PERIOD FROM 1987 TO 2007, 20 YEARS PRIOR TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. 10 YEAR BOND YIELDS AVERAGED BE .2 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE CURRENT INFLATION DURING THAT PERIOD. WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW IS KIDS STUFF COMPARED TO WHERE WE ARE IN THE 20 YEAR PERIOD WHEN WE SAW RECESSIONS. WE ALSO DID SEE PERIODS OF
STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH. LISA: WE DO HAVE AN ASSET SYSTEM THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER AN ERA OF ZERO RATES WHICH RAISING A QUESTION OF THE VULNERABILITIES EMBEDDED IN CAPITAL STRUCTURES THAT ARE HINGED ON ZERO RATE POLICIES SUDDENLY HAVING TO FACE OFF WITH REALITY. HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT THE ANECDOTAL DATA PEOPLE ARE POINTING TO, INCLUDING FED OFFICIALS, THAT SHOW A RAPID PACE OF WEAKENING PEOPLE EXPECT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER? CARL: WE EXPECT A SLOWDOWN OF THE ECONOMY IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. A VAGARY -- A VIGOROUS THIRD-QUARTER WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND SHOULD HAVE EXPECTED AND AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO NORMAL TRENDS.
WE ARE FORECASTING CONTINUED TREND ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND 1.6% WITH THE ECONOMY AT FULL EMPLOYMENT AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THE END OF THIS YEAR AND BEGINNING OF NEXT YEAR. AND AT FULL EMPLOYMENT IS BOTH A BLESSING AND A GIFT.
WHEN I WAS A KID IN ECONOMIST, THE GOAL OF THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM WAS GET A JOB FOR EVERYONE. EVERYONE WHO WANTS A JOB HAS ONE THAT IS GOOD AND PRICES ARE RETURNING TO NORMAL RATES OF INCREASE AFTER A ONE-TIME SHOCK TO THE MONEY SUPPLY HERE THAT IS GOOD. THE PROBLEM WE HAVE IS THAT WE TRY TO PUSH PAST THE LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT AND THAT COULD HAPPEN IN A WAR SCENARIO WHERE WE ARE FIGHTING A WAR ON TWO FRONTS AT THE SAME TIME AND A WAR WHERE WE WANT TO PRODUCE MORE GUNS AND LESS BUTTER AND HOW DO YOU DO THAT WHEN YOU ARE AT FULL EMPLOYMENT? YOU HAVE TO HAVE LESS BUTTER TO MAKE MORE GUNS AND THAT MEANS A SHORTAGE OF SUPPLY OF CONSUMER GOODS AND PERHAPS THE NEXT WAVE WILL QAMAR THE WARTIME SCENARIO.
-- WILL COME FROM THE WARTIME SCENARIO. MANUS: I CAN ONLY GO BACK AS FAR AS 15% IN THE U.K. IN 1989. YOU SAID IS THE BOND WORK NOT DOING ENOUGH DIRTY WORK AND IS A MUCH MORE PAIN TO COME? CARL: THE BOND MARKET IS HELPING THE FED SLOW THE ECONOMY. IF THAT IS THE RIGHT THING TO DO THAN THE BOND MARKET IS BEING HELPFUL. I'M NOT SO SURE WE NEED TO SLOW THE ECONOMY TO REGAIN PRICE STABILITY. I THINK THE ECONOMY WILL GO BACK TO STABLE PRICES AS WE ERODE AWAY THIS MONEY THAT WAS PUT INTO THE ECONOMY DURING THE PANDEMIC, WITH GOOD REASON BUT WITH CONSEQUENCES. I DON'T THINK WE NECESSARILY
HAVE TO HAVE A RECESSION TO GET PRICE STABILITY. WE ARE HEADED CLEARLY BACK TOWARD PRICE STABILITY WITHOUT A RECESSION AND THAT IS GREAT. EVERYBODY THAT WANTS A JOB HAS A JOB AND TO ME THAT IS A PLUS FOR THE ECONOMY. TOM: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. GOING TO THE ECB, THEY ARE WAITING FOR LABOR TO CRACK AND IT HASN'T. LISA: THE STORY IS BASICALLY THEY
WILL THE RATES AND THEY WILL CRACK. YOU SEE COMPANIES TALKING ABOUT EFFICIENCIES. I THINK ABOUT THE DEAL WITH CHEVRON AND HAS -- HESS. TOM: SAID I REALLY OUGHT TO LOOK AT IRISH REAL ESTATE, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT GAS I HAVE HAD OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS. IT IS A BOOMING ECONOMY BUT TO AMERICA AND THE UNITED KINGDOM, IT IS STARKLY IN IRELAND THE HOUSE AND THE HAVE-NOTS. THERE IS A WHOLE PART OF THE ECONOMY NOT PARTICIPATING.
MANUS: THAT HAS BEEN A MEMORIAL. THE FED RELEASED A REPORT ON FRIDAY WHICH TALK ABOUT WEALTH IN THIS COUNTRY AND IT HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST ACCUMULATION OF WEALTH IN THE LAST 30 YEARS. I MISSED THE BOAT IN THE BODY AND NORTHERN IRELAND. I WON'T MISS IT NOW. TOM: IS BONO OF U2 OVER THERE? SUCH A VALUE HAVING MANUS CRANNY. LISA:
I HAVE TO APOLOGIZE. YOU LISTEN TO THE ACCENT AND THEN YOU THINK OF, REAL ESTATE. TOM: DUBLIN REAL ESTATE IS ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS.
>> WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW, RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE DRIFTING INTO THE SECOND YEAR, U.S.-CHINA ISSUES THAT CONTINUE. YOU'VE NOW GOT THE CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST WITH THE ATTACK ON ISRAEL ON OCTOBER 7 AND THE ASSOCIATED RESPONSE. THE COMMON THEME IS THE ENERGY MARKET IN TERMS OF LOOKING AT WHO IS BUYING WHAT FROM WHERE AND HOW TO MANAGE THE DOMESTIC EXPECTATIONS. TOM: WHO IS BUYING WHAT FROM WHERE. WE WANT TO INFORM YOU WITH GUEST EXPERTS IN THEIR FIELD, DANIEL TANNENBAUM AND OLIVER WYMAN, AN EXPERT ON SANCTIONS THAT WORK AND SANCTIONS THAT DO NOT. WE WELCOME ALL OF YOU. JONATHAN FERRO IS OUT. MANUS CRANNY JOINS US.
THIS IMPORTANT CONVERSATION WITH OIL, IT IS MURDER MONDAY. LISA: THE IDEA THAT YOU HAVE CHEVRON BUYING HESS. AND YOU HAD -- IS IT SCALE AND IS THE U.S. LOOKING AND SAYING WE HAVE TO COMPETE SO WE CAN CASH IN BEFORE FOSSIL FUELS ARE OBSOLETE, MAYBE. TOM:
THE DEFINITIVE BRIEF, $60 BILLION OF TOTAL ENTERPRISE AND VALUE. AMRITA SEN, EXPERT ON THE PRICE OF OIL AND THE GEOGRAPHY. I WAS UP TO SPEED ON THIS AND GETTING UP TO SPEED QUICKLY YANA -- EXXON FOUND MORE OIL THAN GOD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OF SOUTH AMERICA IN 2015. THIS IS AN ACQUISITION BY MR. BIRTH AND CHEVRON. EXPLAIN TO OUR AUDIENCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE OIL FIELDS. AMRITA: IT IS A FANTASTIC ACQUISITION GIVEN THE FACT THAT DIANA -- GUANA WILL HAVE SUPPLY GROWTH IN THE COMING YEARS.
EXXON HAS A FOOT PRINT AND SO DOES PASS -- HESS. DURING BY THE DAY WITH NEW ONES IN THE COMING YEARS PLANNED. TALKING ABOUT PRODUCTION BREACHING A MILLION BARRELS A DAY AND CONTINUING TO GROW. THE MOST PROMINENT PROSPECT.
WE HAD WERE ZILLOW TAKE THAT -- BRAZIL TAKE THAT POSITION. THAT HAS NOW SWITCHED TO GUANA. TOM: WHAT IS THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN GUANA VENEZUELA ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN? AMRITA: STABILITY, FOR ONE. THE QUALITY OF OIL THEY REDUCE IS SWEETER AND LIGHT BY IRFAN REFINERS WHO USUALLY STRUGGLE TO REFINE THE HEAVIER. IT IS HEAVY OIL.
IT IS LIKED BY REFINERS ON THE GULF COAST THAT HAVE THE CAPACITY TO PROCESS THAT. NOT EVERY REFINER HAS IT SO THERE OIL IS EASIER TO PROCESS. TODAY, BECAUSE WE HAVE A LOT OF REFINERIES AROUND THE WORLD THAT NEED THE HEAVY OIL, THE LIFTING ON SANCTIONS ON VENEZUELA WOULD BE WELCOME. TOM: GUANA TO THE EAST OF VENEZUELA. A CORRECTION. ONE OF OUR INTERNS JUST SAVED
ME ON THAT. LISA: WHY ARE WE SEEING SO MANY OF THESE ACQUISITIONS IN THE OIL PATCH? AMRITA: THIS IS SOMETHING OUR TEAM HAS BEEN POINTING OUT SINCE JULY. WE IDENTIFIED 80 COMPANIES WITHOUT WERE UP FOR GRABS. I WOULD BE HAPPY TO SHARE THAT WITH YOU. IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE LAST DECADE, WAS FUELED BY ZERO INTEREST RATES AND FOCUSING ON NOT SHAREHOLDER GROWTH OR CASH FLOW BUT ABOUT PRODUCTION GROWTH. THAT HAS CHANGED.
OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS WE HAVE SEEN SHAREHOLDER SAY YOU ACTUALLY NEED TO RETURN MONEY TO US WHICH MEANS A LOT OF ACREAGE AND COMPANIES JUST PRODUCED ANYWAYS. THEY HAVE TO GET BASICALLY INTEGRATED WITH BIGGER COMPANIES THAT HAVE ECONOMIES OF SCALE BECAUSE THAT IS THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN GENERATE CASH. THAT IS THE MAIN REASON YOU ARE SEEING THIS. AS INTEREST RATES GO UP, SERVICING A LOT OF THESE DEBTS THEY HAVE, IT IS IT FEASIBLE AND THAT IS WHITE YOU WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CONSOLIDATION WITH THINK THIS IS JUST THE START WILL SEE A LOT MORE GOING FORWARD. LISA: HOW MUCH IS THIS A RESULT OF MAYBE ANTITRUST AGENTS IN THE U.S.
CAN WORK FAVORABLY ON TIEUPS BECAUSE THERE IS A GOAL TO OFFSET SOME OF THE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST? AMRITA: I THINK THAT IS AT THE MARGIN. IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE KIND OF DEALS BEING DONE OR LOOK AT THE DEALS BEING DONE, IT STARTED WITH OCCIDENTAL PREVIOUSLY. IT IS ALWAYS ABOUT GETTING THE ACREAGE WHICH IS RIGHT NEXT TO YOURS SO THAT YOU CAN HAVE ECONOMIES OF SCALE.
THAT IS THE UNDERLYING REASON FOR THAT. EVEN WITH ACQUISITIONS IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN YOU WILL GET MORE PRODUCTION. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, GIVING US 1.2 RATES. A LOT OF IT IS POOR QUALITY SO BIGGER COMPANIES SAY THEY ARE NOT GOING TO PRODUCE FROM HERE AND OVERALL REDUCTION GOES DOWN. EXXON IS AN EXCEPTION. EVERYTHING WE ARE SEEING IS
LEADING TO LOWERING THE GUIDANCE OF THE COMPANIES. MANUS: DOES ANY OF THE DEALMAKING YOU ARE SEEING REFLECT ANTICIPATION OF A CHANGE OR MATERIAL CHANGE IN U.S. ENERGY POLICY? COMING INTO AN ELECTION YEAR, POLICY MAY CHANGE, AMERICAN OIL INDEPENDENCE IS KEY. DO ANY OF THESE ASPECTS PLAY INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR DEALMAKING? AMRITA: I DON'T THINK SO, IN THE SENSE THAT THESE ARE COMPANY SPECIFIC DEALS WE ARE TALKING ABOUT. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS THE U.S. IS PRODUCING 30 MILLION BARRELS A DAY WHICH IS RECORD HIGH AND THAT CONTINUES TO GROW. YOU DO HAVE SANCTIONS BEING
LIFTED ON VENEZUELA EVEN THOUGH ELECTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN HELD. THAT RAISES MORE QUESTIONS IN SAYING WHY ARE WE NOT BEING GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE THAN YOU DOING DEALS ELSEWHERE. MANUS: I WILL SEE YOU IN A MONTH'S TIME. THERE IS A PICTURE OF US
DANCING DURING COVID TOTO. AMRITA: DANCING? MANUS: THE THEORY IS THE U.S. GOES TO REFILL OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AND GIVES SAUDI AND RUSSIA FOR CUTS. IS THAT PIE IN THE SKY HOPEFUL THINKING? AMRITA: DO NOT BUY THAT. I DO NOT BUY THAT. SAUDI ARABIA HAS BEEN CLEAR IN SAYING THEY ARE KEEPING IT BECAUSE OF MAKER ECONOMIC CONCERNS -- MACRO ECONOMIC CONCERNS. THEY'VE ONLY MANAGED TO REFILL
FOR .8 BILLION BARRELS AND SAID WE BUY THE OIL BUT THERE IT IS 79, I DON'T THINK THEY WILL GET THERE. TOM: THANK YOU SO MUCH. TEAM SURVEILLANCE LOOKS FORWARD TO INTERVIEWING AT THE CRANNY SOIREE.
WHAT HAPPENS IN VIENNA? MANUS: IT IS NOT A JUNKER -- JUNKERT. YOU CHASE PEOPLE THROUGH THE HALLS. ANNMARIE HORDERN WREAKS HAVOC. THERE IS A LOT OF BACK CHANNELING THAT GOES ON. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE RUSSIANS COME WITH IN NOVEMBER. TOM:
THE 10 YEAR YIELD AT FIVE POINT 00%. WHAT ARE WE WAITING FOR -- 5.00% . WHAT ARE WE WAITING FOR? I AM WAITING TO GET A FIRST PRICING OF THE REAL YIELD. THERE IT IS, 2.53% ON THE INFLATION YIELD. YOU TELL ME HOW IT GETS DONE. LISA: YOU TELL ME HOW IT SETS THE VALUATIONS, THE HIGHEST GOING BACK TO NOVEMBER 2008. TOM: STAY WITH US. MICHAEL MCKEE ON THE ECONOMY.
GENERAL FRANK MCKENZIE WILL >> THIS IS A TIME FOR HUMILITY AND MULTI-ASSET INVESTING. >>. DEFINITELY HAVING A RESET TO A HIGHER ACTUAL RETURN ENVIRONMENT. >> THIS ECONOMY HAS A HUGE MOSAIC OF FACTORS TO WHAT IS HAPPENING THE OVERALL MARKET.
>> CHALLENGE IN THE BOND MARKET, SUCCESS IN THE EQUITY MARKET. TOM: GOOD MORNING. JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, TOM KEENE. MANY NARRATIVES ON THIS MONDAY. ONE OF THEM IS JON FERRO ON
ASSIGNMENT, MANUS CRANNY SITTING IN. ADDING HUGE VALUE ON CHEVRON HAS WITH HIS YEARS IN DUBAI. IN THIS HOUR ANNMARIE HORDERN WILL JOIN US ON THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. WE HAVE TO GO TO THE MARKETS. WEI LI COMING ON IN MOMENTS. A 5% 10 YEAR YIELD. LISA: WHICH PEOPLE THOUGHT WAS UNIMAGINABLE. TOM:
I WAS IN THAT CAMP. LISA: NOW YOU HAVE PEOPLE GAMING AT 6%. THAT IS THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT GIVEN IT IS NO LONGER THE HAVEN STATUS. TOM: TWO POINT 53% ON THE -- 2.50 3% ON THE 10 YEAR REAL YIELD. THERE IS CONVEXITY THERE. LISA: A LOT OF PEOPLE SAID SIX MONTHS AGO THAT IF WE GOT TO 2.5% REAL
YIELD THAT WOULD TORPEDO ALL EQUITY VALUATIONS. YET THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE AND THAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE BIGGEST SURPRISES. MANUS: THE QUESTION IS DO YOU TURN INTO A DURATION HERO, DO YOU JUMP IN AND TAKE BONDS ON AND BELIEVE THIS IS THE TOP OR DOES THIS MARKET TEST 5.25 PERCENT OR 5.5%? WHAT YOU DO IN ENGLAND -- TOM: WHAT YOU DO IN ENGLAND? JON FERRO NOTICING THE CONVEXITY OF THE 30 YEAR GILT WAS MORE ABRUPT THAN THE U.S.. THE SPEED IN THE UNITED KINGDOM GIVES PAUSE. MANUS: YOU SAW HOW THE BOND MARKET
IMPLODED IN THE UNITED KINGDOM. I AM NOT MAKING THAT DELUSIONAL CALL BUT THE ISSUE IS YOU HAVE SUPPLY IN MANY ISSUES ON THE BOND MARKET. TOM: WE WILL GET TO THE DATA CHECK SO LISA CAN GIVE YOU A CACOPHONY OF A BRIEF. HOW ABOUT THE VIX, 22.58 SHOWING SOME REAL TENSION IN
THE MARKET. FUTURES -23 AND THE BOND MARKET WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING 5.12 ON THE TWO-YEAR. THAT GETS YOU TO A SPREAD OF 12 BASIS POINTS. THIS WEEK WILL WE SEE TRUE AND COMPLETE THIS INVERSION? BRENT CRUDE $92 A BARREL, WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE $87 A BARREL.
DOLLAR FLAT. YEN DID PRINT 154 A WHILE. EUROPE BACK TO 1.06. I DON'T KNOW WHAT ANY OF THAT MEANS. THE BRAMO BRIEF. LISA: WE TALKED THIS MORNING, THE ECONOMY IS NOT THE STOCK MARKET THIS MORNING WE ARE GETTING 30% OF THE S&P REPORTING EARNINGS. MICROSOFT COME ALPHABET TOMORROW. THE GAINS OF THE SHARES HAVE DRIVEN THE GAIN ON THE S&P 500 LED BY META UP 156% THIS YEAR.
TO ME THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DID THEY HAVE A HIGH BAR TO CROSS WITH FORWARD-LOOKING GUIDANCE AND IF THEY MISS IS THAT GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RISK FACTOR FOR A MARKET THAT IS HANGING IN THERE BUT KIND OF BREAKING DOWN ON THE MARGINS. MANUS: LET'S CALL AT FIVE OR 5.25% FOR A BANDWIDTH ON BONDS. WE ARE IN A NEW ZONE.
IN THEORY GROWTH STOCKS SHOULD COME UNDER PRESSURE. THE SAVING GRACE OF THE NAMES YOU HAVE MENTIONED, THIS IS DIGGING DEEP INTO TWO WEEKS AGO, IS THE BALANCE SHEETS. I THINK GENERAL GROWTH WILL BE TESTED BUT I THINK SOME OF THOSE MAKER CAPS WILL BE RESILIENT. LISA: WE ALSO HAVE CENTRAL BANKS PRESENTING EARNINGS.
ECB ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A BIG MOVE THERE. WE SEE RATES STAYING WHERE THERE ARE ON THE TWO YEAR. THIS IS SOMETHING YOU BEEN MENTIONING A LOT, WHICH IS THE GDP AND HOW MUCH IT IS REALLY ACCELERATING. THIRD-QUARTER GDP WILL COME OUT ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH CORPORATE CONSUMPTION. WILL IT SHOW THE RE-ACCELERATION. THE ATLANTA FED SHOWS 5.4%
CURRENTLY. TOM: THIS IS A REFRAME OUT TO WHAT SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING IS 5% REAL GDP, WHICH I WILL ROUND OUT TO 8% NOMINAL GDP. IT MAY BE LIGHTER THAN THAT. THESE ARE STUNNING NUMBERS FOR THE POND AND'S LOOKING BACK SIX MONTHS -- FOR THE PUNDITS LOOKING BACK SIX MONTH. LISA: AND PEOPLE ARE WONDERING IS THIS GROWTH COMPATIBLE WITH GETTING DOWN INFLATION? TOM: WE WILL BEGIN WITHOUT DEFINITIVE CALL OF THE DAY ON GLOBAL FIXED INCOME. WEI LI'S GLOBAL CHIEF
INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT BLACK ROCK AND JOINS US ON OUR FEARS OF PRICE DOWN AND YIELD UP. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR FINDING THE TIME. WHERE IS THE BID ON BONDS? TO ME THE BID IS WALKED AWAY. IS THAT TRUE? IS THERE A DEARTH OF BID ACROSS ALL FIXED INCOME? WEI: THERE ARE LOTS OF MOVING PARTS RIGHT NOW.
GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. IN TERMS OF OUR VIEW LONG BONDS, LONG-DURATION, WE'VE BEEN UNDERWEIGHT U.S. LONG-DURATION FOR THREE YEARS, SINCE LATE 2020, 110 YEAR YIELDS WAS BELOW 1%. LAST WEEK WE HAVE CLOSE THE UNDERWEIGHT TO GET TO NEUTRAL. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MOVING
PARTS AS TO WHY RACE HAVE REPRICED MEANINGFULLY -- WHY RATES HAVE REPRICED MEANINGFULLY. THE FIRST'S POLICY AND THE SECOND PIECE IS TERM PREMIUM. WHERE WE ARE NOW IS 10 YEAR YIELDS TESTING 5%.
IN OUR ASSESSMENT, POLICY PATH IS NOT DIFFERENT FROM WHERE WE THINK IT SHOULD BE. TERM PREMIUM, DEPENDING ON WHICH MEASURE IS USED, WE ARE LOOKING AT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 20 BASIS POINTS, 40 BASIS POINTS COULD PUSH EVEN HIGHER OVER THE STRATEGIC HORIZON. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TERM PREMIUM OVER THE STRATEGIC HORIZON AT 100 BASIS POINTS BECAUSE OF ISSUANCE DYNAMICS, BECAUSE OF HIGH RATE ENVIRONMENTS, RATE VOLATILITY, AS WELL AS BECAUSE OF HIGHER INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENTS. WHEN YOU BRING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER, STRATEGICALLY WE ARE STILL UNDERWEIGHT BUT TACTICALLY WE ARE NEUTRAL BECAUSE RISKS HAVE BECOME MORE BALANCED. WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE READ ACROSS OF RATE REPRICING TO RISK ASSETS, ACTUALLY POLICY PATH REPRICING CAN BE NEGATIVE FOR EQUITIES BECAUSE IT IMPACTS THE DISCOUNT RATES DIRECTLY. TERM PREMIUM REPRICING DOES NOT HAVE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR EQUITIES BECAUSE IT IS AN ASSESSMENT OF THE APPEAL OF DURATION IN PORTFOLIOS. LISA: I KNOW YOU HAVE BEEN LEADING INTO THE AI DISCUSSION AND THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING SOME OF YOUR EQUITY BETS. YOU THINK THAT AREA IS COMPLETELY IMMUNE TO TERM PREMIUM AND THESE DISCUSSIONS OF YIELD GIVEN THE CASH COWS THEY HAVE BECOME? WEI: WHAT HAS BEEN INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THIS IS THAT ON THE ONE HAND THEY BENEFIT FROM THE GROWTH UPGRADES, EARNING UPGRADES WE ARE SEEING COMING THROUGH. NEXT YEAR 10% FORECAST FOR THE S&P 500, HALF OF THAT IS DRIVEN BY MEGA TECH NAMES.
5% IS COMING FROM THE TECH NAMES. THERE DEFINITELY BENEFITS FROM EARNINGS UPGRADES. AT THE SAME TIME THERE -- THEY ARE MORE LONG-DURATION COMPARED TO THE BROADER EQUITY MARKET. WHEN THE RATE REPRICING IT PRESSURES DOWN ON LONG-DURATION, LITTLE BIT MORE EVERYTHING ELSE BEING EQUAL. WHEN YOU BRING THE FACTORS
TOGETHER FROM THE GROWTH PROSPECTS AND THE AI THEME GATHERING MOMENTUM IN THE EARNINGS UPGRADE TRUMP DURATION SENSITIVITY AS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. AS WELL AS RECENT PERIODS. NASDAQ HOLDING UP BETTER THAN YOU WOULD'VE EXPECTED STOP MANUS: TO CARRY ON THAT FROM THAT, THIS WEEK YOU WILL SEE $16 TRILLION WORTH OF EQUITY REPORTS AND PART OF THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN INTECH WILL BE ON THAT. WHAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT WAS THE BALANCE SHEETS, THE CASH ON THE BALANCE SHEET, THE CASH ON APPLE'S BALANCE SHEET, IS THAT ANOTHER DEFENSIVE AND A REASON TO STAY LONG BIG TECH? WEI: THAT IS WHY WE ARE STILL OVERWEIGHT BIG TECH AND AI. WHEN WE THINK ABOUT QUALITY CHARACTERISTICS AS GROWTH SLOWS DOWN AND REACTS TO THE TIGHTENING ENVIRONMENT WE ARE ALL EXPERIENCING, HAVING CASH ON YOUR BALANCE SHEET AND NOT BEING AS GEARED UP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IS A DEFINITE PLUS. MORE BROADLY, THE IMPRESSION OF
THE EARNINGS SEASON, THE FEELING IS IT IS HOLDING UP BETTER, BUT NOT FORGET THE BROADER BACKDROP, WHICH IS EARNINGS HAVE BEEN STAGNATING. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT INCREMENTAL REBOUND FROM THE STAGNATION. TOM: LAWRENCE FROM NEW YORK EMAILS AND SAYS ASK HER -- IF THE RATIONALIZATION IS I CAN OWN IT FOREVER AND I WILL GET PAID BACK EVENTUALLY. HOW DO YOU DO THE MATH AT THE MIDPOINT WHERE THE STUFF YOU HOLD ON THE BALANCE SHEET GETS EVALUATION.
IF I HAVE EIGHT YEARS OF MATURITY, HOW CLOSE IS IT TO WHERE YOU GET A TIPPING POINT WHERE YOU HAVE TO CONFRONT WHAT IS ON THE BALANCE SHEET? WEI: FIRST SAY HELLO TO LAWRENCE, AND SECOND YES INDEED WE HAVE TO SEE MORE REPRICING OF RISK ASSETS REFLECTING THE HIGHER RATE ENVIRONMENT. WE LOOK AT DURATION WORK ALMOST THERE WHICH IS WHY TACTICALLY WE HAVE TURNED NEUTRAL, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT EQUITIES, IT HAS YET TO REFLECT THE HIGHER RATE ENVIRONMENT BY OUR SIMPLE BACK OF THE ENVELOPE ANALYSIS. 5% TO 10% ADJUSTMENT IS NOT UNTHINKABLE. THEN YOU THINK ABOUT MARKETS WHERE THERE IS A FURTHER REPRICED TO GO.
WE THINK ABOUT DEPLOYING RISK IN THIS ENVIRONMENT BECAUSE THERE IS A DIFFERENT RATE SENSITIVITY ACROSS RISKS WHICH IS WHY WE ARE VERY SELECTIVE . WE ARE ALSO VERY SELECTIVE IN TERMS OF THE PRIVATE MARKET. WE LIKE PRIVATE CREDIT AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT. TOM: I DON'T HEAR FULL FAITH AND CREDIT. WEI LI OF BLACK ROCK, THANK YOU SO MUCH. FUTURES -23, DOWN .5%.
LISA: AS WEI LI WAS TALKING SHE WAS FOCUSING OUTSIDE THE MEGA TECH AND THE ADDITIONAL PRICING THAT MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN RESPONSE TO YIELDS. I DO NOT THINK WE ARE TALKING ENOUGH ABOUT REGIONAL BANKS. THEY'RE ALMOST DOWN TO WHERE THEY WERE DURING THE MARCH SELLOFF. I WAS HIGHLIGHTING THIS LAST WEEK. THE KB X INDEX IS DOWN DRAMATICALLY, LESS THAN 10% AWAY FROM THE LOW WE SAW IN MARCH. TO THAT POINT, ARE WE STARTING TO SEE THE SIGNS OF SOMETHING DEEPER STARTING THAT IS MASKED BY SOME OF THE BIG TECH? I KEEP THINKING ABOUT THIS. MANUS:
WE ARE OBSESSED ABOUT BONDS, ABOUT INFLATION DATA, AND SOMETIMES THE FLOW OF MONEY IS WHEN WE TAKE OUR EYE OFF THE BALL. THE RISK IS WE DO SEE AN ADDITIONAL MOVE OF CASH OUT OF THOSE BANKS. MAYBE THAT IS WHERE THE NEXT CRACK DOES COME TO BEAR ON THE MARKET. THE CONSUMER IS FINE, THE CONSUMER'S BRAND. WHERE IS THE NEXT INFLECTION POINT? TOM: I KNEW RETAIL SALES WEAR UP STATISTIC.
WHEN SOMEONE SAYS THE AMERICAN CONSUMER IS GRAND, I AM LOOKING AT DELINQUENCIES ON LOANS. MANUS: DELINQUENCIES ON THE SUBPRIME AUTOS IS RATCHETING HIGHER. TOM: THE BENTLEY IS PAID FOR. FUTURES -21. JOHN FROM AN ISLAND WITH AN UMBRELLA IN HIS BLOODY MARY SAYS QUOTE THE DOW. >> WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL ESCALATION.
IN FACT, WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THE PROSPECT OF A SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION OF ATTACKS ON OUR TROOPS AND OUR PEOPLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. WE WILL DO WHAT IS NECESSARY TO MAKE SURE OUR TROOPS ARE IN A GOOD POSITION. TOM: HE IS THE 12TH COMMANDER OF THE CENTRAL COMMAND WITH REAL WAR EXPERIENCE. OUR SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD AUSTIN ON ABC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CAREFULLY PHRASED WORDS ABOUT AMERICANS IN HARM'S WAY IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. WE WELCOME ALL OF YOU TO NEW YORK ON RADIO AND TELEVISION. MANUS CRANNY IN FOR JON FERRO. LISA ABRAMOWICZ AND TOM KEENE,
WE ARE LOOKING AT DIFFERENT NARRATIVES UP YIELDS ON THE MOVE, FUTURES AT -21. THE VIX HAS FINALLY MOVED. WE HAVE REAL TENSION IN THE MARKET. 22.54 ON THE VICKS. WE NOW STEP INTO A DISCUSSION LINKING WASHINGTON WITH TEL AVIV. OLIVER CROOK IS IN TEL AVIV AND JOINING US FROM WASHINGTON, ANNMARIE HORDERN. WITH ALL GOOD CHEER, DID THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES SURVIVED THE WEEKEND? HOW DOES HE START THE WEEK? ANNMARIE: HE CERTAINLY DID SURVIVE THE WEEKEND. I KNOW THERE WERE CONCERNS
BECAUSE HE WAS IN DELAWARE AT HIS HOME, BUT THE PRESIDENT TOOK A NUMBER OF CALLS OVER THE WEEKEND. BENJAMIN NETANYAHU HE WAS IN CONTACT WITH ALONG WITH THE LIKES OF TRUDEAU, MACRON, ITALY, THE UNITED KINGDOM, THE WESTERN ALLIANCE MAKE THEIR THEY ARE THE SAME PAGE THAT ISRAEL HAS THE RIGHT TO DEFEND ITSELF AGAINST HAMAS, BUT ALSO THEY WANT TO MAKE SURE THIS CONFLICT IS CONTAINED AND THERE IS NOT A WIDER REGIONAL CONFLICT THAT SPREADS BECAUSE OF THIS. THE PRESIDENT EVEN CAUGHT UP WITH THE POPE OVER THE WEEKEND. HE SURVIVED THE WEEKEND AND HE GOES INTO AN INCREDIBLY CHALLENGING WEEK GIVEN THE FACT THERE ARE STILL AMERICANS HELD BY HAMAS HOSTAGE. TOM:
LISA WANTS TO GET IN, BUT I DO NOT BUY FOR A MINUTE ISRAEL IS BEHOLDEN TO "THE WESTERN ALLIANCE." HOW UNILATERAL IS THE ISRAELI MILITARY ON THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON? ANNMARIE: I WOULD SAY, AND WE HAD REPORTING INCLUDING MY OWN FROM FRIDAY THAT HAS DEVELOPED AND OTHER OUTLETS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT THERE HAS BEEN A PUSH FROM THE LIKES OF THE UNITED STATES AND OTHERS TO TRY TO SLOW DOWN ISRAEL'S GROUND INVASION, TO MAKE SURE IT IS PER SIZE, AND ALSO TO MAKE SURE THEY CAN DO ALL THE WORK THEY CAN TO GET HOSTAGES OUT BEFORE ISRAEL GOES IN. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN PRESSED UPON BENJAMIN NETANYAHU AND THE ISRAELI MILITARY IS TO MAKE SURE THAT PALESTINIAN, INNOCENT PALESTINIAN LIVES ARE NOT PUT IN HARM'S WAY. ALREADY YOU SEE THAT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT ALL TIMES. THAT IS SOMETHING THE U.S.
IS EXERTING A LOT OF PRESSURE ON. YOU CAN ALSO SEE WITH THIS FLURRY OF DIPLOMACY IN AND OUT OF TEL AVIV AND JERUSALEM, TODAY YOU HAVE -- TOMORROW YOU HAVE EMMANUEL MACRON. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SENATORS THERE. THEY ARE KEEPING UP THIS CONSTANT DIPLOMACY AND HOPEFULLY THAT HELPS PUSH A GROUND INVASION FURTHER DOWN THE TIMELINE. TOM: THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE BOMBING OF ALEPPO AIRPORTS IN THE STRIKES ON HIS BLOOD TARGETS IN TERMS OF TRYING TO PREVENT ESCALATION AT THIS POINT. OLIVER:
COMPLETELY. THE IDF WILL SAY THERE ARE CONTINUED ROCKET FIRES AND SKIRMISHES IN THE NORTH SO NOW THE ISRAELIS HAVE CONTINUED TO BOMB. WE HAVE ALERTS FROM THE IDF THAT SAY A LOT OF WHAT THEY HAVE DONE OVERNIGHT, AND MORE AND MORE YOU ARE SEEING MORE AND MORE HEZBOLLAH TARGETS IN LEBANON AND THAT FOLLOWS THE EVACUATION OF ISRAELI CIVILIANS WHO LIVE ON THE BORDER. HAVING BEEN LIVING IN THE HOTEL COME AT FIRST I MET A NUMBER OF PEOPLE EVACUATED FROM THE SOUTH.
NOW SPEAKING TO THE MANAGEMENT OF THE HOTEL, IT IS PEOPLE BEING EVACUATED FROM THE NORTH. YOU ARE SEEING THE IMPACTS HERE. LISA: HOW MUCH SUPPORT DOES IRAN HAVE FROM REGIONAL PLAYERS VERSUS THEIR ISOLATION? ANNMARIE: IRAN IS INCREDIBLY ISOLATED IN THE GOLF WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE REGIONAL PLAYERS LIKE UAE OR SAUDI ARABIA. FOR ABU DHABI, PROXY GROUPS IN THE GOLF, IRANIAN BACKED PROXY GROUPS THAT START TROUBLE IS NOT NEW. THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SKIRMISHES AND MISSILES OVER JETTA FROM THE WHO THESE AS WELL AS A FIRE IN THE AIRPORT IN THE UAE BECAUSE OF THESE MISSILES. THIS IS WHY THERE IS SO MUCH CONCERN IN THE REGION.
IT IS NOT JUST CONCERN ABOUT HAMAS. IT IS HEZBOLLAH IN THE NORTH AND LAST WEEK WE DID SEE A U.S. DESTROYERS INTERCEPT MISSILES COMING FROM YEMEN AND THE PENTAGON SAID LIKELY THAT WAS HEADED TOWARDS ISRAEL. MANUS: THE U.S. HAS UPPED THEIR DEFENSE.
THERE IS ANOTHER WAR CARRIER GOING TO THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND SOME TROOPS HAVE BEEN PUT ON ALERT. OLIVER, THE GROUND ASSAULTED NOT HAPPEN AS MANY HAD THOUGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. WHAT HAS STRUCTURALLY CHANGED ABOUT THE LANDSCAPER WAR OF ISRAEL ON GAZA? OLIVER: TWO THINGS HAVE CHANGED, WHICH ARE TWO PRESIDENTS WERE SET. HOSTAGES WERE RELEASED AND EIGHT WAS ALLOWED TO FLOW IN.
THIS IS FROM EGYPTIAN MEDIA. WE UNDERSTAND ACCORDING TO EGYPTIAN MEDIA YOU HAVE ADDITIONAL TRUCKS THAT ARE FLOWING INTO GAZA TO GET SOME OF THAT AGE THROUGH. THIS IS SEEN AS THE BEGINNING OF SOMETHING IMPORTANT. THE AMERICANS IN A, IS THE SAME THING. 100 TRUCKS A DAY IS WHAT THE YUAN IS CALLING FOR. WHEN WE ARE THINKING ABOUT THE PRESSURE POINTS AND ESCALATION, THE SUMMIT OVER THE WEEKEND, THE KING OF JORDAN SAYING THEY ARE HEARING FROM THE WEST IS THAT PALESTINIAN LIVES DO NOT MATTER AS MUCH AS ISRAELI LIVES. THESE ARE ALL OF THE THINGS
THAT WILL GO INTO THIS COMBUSTIBLE SITUATION. THE IDF IS SCREENING HUGE VOLUMES OF FOOTAGE THEY PULLED OFF OF HAMAS BODY CAMS THEY ARE SHOWING TO JOURNALISTS WHICH WILL BE RELEASED. THIS IS PART OF THE TEMPERATURE CONVERSATION AND THE REACTION CONVERSATION. TOM: OLIVER CROOK IN FRONT OF THE STORY IN TEL AVIV.
ANNMARIE HORDERN IN WASHINGTON. BALANCE OF POWER LATER WILL CONSIDER THE ISSUES OF THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. THE HISTORY OF THE FIVE YEAR YIELD BACK TO 2007 AND MAY BE BACK TO 1992. TORSTEN SLOK OF APOLLO ON THE REALITY. WE MENTIONED THE REAL YIELD,
2.52%. TORSTEN SLOK SEEING 10% SHORT-TERM LOANS. LISA: THAT IS THE KEY AND WHAT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HIS BABY THE LEGACY OF THIS MOMENT WILL BE THE DIVERSIONS BETWEEN THE BIG AND SMALL. THAT IS WHY WE ARE SEEING ALL OF THE ACQUISITIONS AND WE WILL SEE WHAT PEOPLE MIGHT CALL OMNI ROLL UP. TOM: SHE STEALS FROM ME. FERRO NEVER STEALS LIKE THAT. MANUS: HE IS A GIVER.
HE IS MUNIFICENT. YOU HAVE EQUITY THAT IS UP AND A POWERFUL BALANCE SHEET AND THAT EQUIPS YOU TO DO DEALS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVELY. TOM: YOU CANNOT EQUATE SMALL BUSINESS AMERICA WITH BIG BUSINESS LIKE CHEVRON AND H ESS. MANUS: TAKE IT DOWN TO THE BOTTOM LEVEL.
I AM ARRIVED IN A NEW COUNTRY. WHY TAKE A MORTGAGE 8%? LISA: THAT IS THE REASON PEOPLE SAY THE MORTGAGE MARKET IS BROKEN. TOM: IT IS NEW YORK. YOU HAVE TO HAVE ALL-CASH LIKE JON FERRO. MANUS: IT IS A BIT LIKE DUBAI. TOM: WE WILL GET A BANNER UP FOR RADIO WITH MANUS CRANNY SAY NEW YORK CITY IS A BIT LIKE DUBAI. STAY WITH US ON MONDAY.
TOM: BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE. JONATHAN FERRO ON ASSIGNMENT WITH AN UMBRELLA AND A COCKTAIL. HOPI IS DOING WELL. MANUS CRANNY IN FOR SIX OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
EXPANDING LARGE AND THE 5:00 SHOW. DO NOT FORGET THE MANUS CRANNY DANI BURGER REPORT, YOU'LL SEE THAT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AT 5:00 A.M. GETTING YOU STARTED. FUTURES -21. THE VIX IS A HEADLINE ITEM, 22 LEVEL, YOU CAN ALMOST ROUND THAT UP TO 23. IT IS NOT 30 OR 40 BUT FROM 18 OR 19 OUT OF 22. TOM TZITZOURIS WITH STRATEGAS WITH US.
WE HAD 5% ON THE 10 YEAR. THE DOLLAR WEAKER. YEN NO ONE WANTS TO TALK TO ME ABOUT THE YEN SO I WILL GO TO THE $92 BRENT CRUDE AS YOU ARE UNDER SURVEILLANCE. LISA: WE WILL GET TO THE YEN BECAUSE I THOUGHT WAS INTERESTING. WE ARE VERY FOCUSED ON THE MIDDLE EAST. PRESIDENT BIDEN
AND BENJAMIN NOT WHO -- RESIDENT BIDEN AND BENJAMIN NETANYAHU PROMISING TO CONTINUE AID. ON FRIDAY AN AMERICAN MOTHER AND DAUGHTER WERE RELEASED BY HAMAS AND AN ANTICIPATED GROUND INVASION HAS BEEN DELAYED. I AM STRUCK OVER THE WEEKEND COME ISRAEL SAYING 222 HOSTAGES ARE STILL STAYING WITH HAMAS. HOW MUCH DOES THAT COLOR THE CONVERSATION ABOUT HOW THIS PROCEEDS? TOM: IT NOT ONLY COLORS THE CONVERSATION BUT IF QATAR HAS HAD HER LESSON GETTING THEM RELEASED, WINTER THE NEXT RELEASES? LISA: AND WHAT TO THE NEGOTIATIONS LOOK LIKE? CHINESE AUTHORITIES LAUNCHING AN INVESTIGATION INTO FOXCONN TECHNOLOGIES, MAJOR SUPPLIER OF APPLES IPHONES.
STATE MEDIA SAYING REGULATORS ARE CONDUCTING TAX AUDITS AND REVIEWING LAND USE BY FOXCONN. AUTHORITIES ALSO RESTING IN EXECUTIVE AND TWO FORMER EMPLOYEES. ALL OF THIS MAKING INTERNATIONAL BUSINESSES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT DOING BUSINESS IN CHINA AND UNEASY. I WONDER HOW MUCH YOU START TO
SEE AND SOME OF THE EARNINGS WE GET, A PULLBACK ON THE MARGINS FROM CHINA. MANUS: IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT APPLE SAYS. THIS IS VERY MUCH A SLAP, WHICH IS TO REMIND YOU WEALTH MANAGEMENT WAS DECONSTRUCTED, THE HOUSING INDUSTRY WAS RIPPED APART, TECH WAS RIPPED APART. THIS IS TO REMIND YOU NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN CHINA. WHEN THAT MOMENT CHANGES AT THE TOP LEVEL TO SHIFT, IT SHIFTS WITH THE CLICK OF A FINGER. TOM: ARE YOU TRYING TO DO THAT AS WELL AS HE DID? HE IS GIFTED. MANUS: BUYER BEWARE.
DO YOU WANT TO ONSHORE OR STAY WHERE YOU ARE? LISA: DID YOU SEE THAT JON STEWART PULLED OUT OF THIS APPLE PRODUCTION OVER THE WEEKEND BECAUSE HE WAS SAYING HE WANTED TO COME OUT AND TALK ABOUT CHINA IN A CERTAIN WAY AND HE WAS TOLD HE SHOULD NOT DO THAT SO HE STOPPED HIS PRODUCTION ENTIRELY, WHICH GIVES YOU A SENSE OF THE CONTROVERSY. MEANWHILE, SPECULATION AROUND THE BANK OF JAPAN MAKING SOME KIND OF POLICY MOVE THIS MONTH GROWING AS THE YEN TESTS 150 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. EVERYONE SAYING INTERVENTION. A REPORT BY NIKKEI BUSINESS DAILY FUELING SUSPICION -- I TAKE YOUR POINT, THIS HAS SIGNIFICANCE NOT JUST FOR THE YEN BUT ALSO FOR YIELDS. TOM: EURO-YEN AS WELL, I HAVE THAT IT 159.05.
I HAVE NOT DONE THE TECHNICAL WORK OF WERE STRONG EURO, WEAK YEN UPSETS THE APPLE CARD. IT SHOWS ME THE TENSIONS THERE AND INFLOWS FROM JAPAN, NOT INTEREST RATE ANALYSIS. LISA: THAT IS EXACTLY IT. HOW MUCH ARE THESE FLOWS WHAT WILL DRIVE THE NEXT LEG HIGHER IN YIELDS? WHAT IS BEHIND IT? WE DO NOT KNOW AT A TIME YIELDS ARE HIGHEST IN THE U.S.. TOM: THIS IS A CONVERSATION I HAD OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS BOWTIE BABBLE. IS MANUS CRANNY GOING TO WEAR A BOWTIE? MANUS: NO. THERE IS NO CHANCE. TOM: WE KNOW FOR CERTAIN THE IMPACT
ON AMERICA. TOM TZITZOURIS IS WITH STRATEGAS. HE IS THE HEAD OF FIXED INCOME. YOU FLOORED ME WITH AN ANALYSIS THAT 70% OF AMERICA ARE VOTERS THAT ARE SMALL BUSINESS AND THEY ARE IN THE CHURN AND THEY ONLY MAKE UP 5% OF THE GDP. HAS THE FED LEFT THEM BEHIND IN THIS YIELD ENVIRONMENT? TOM: I WOULD VERY MUCH SAY SO. THE FED BY OVERLY RELYING ON THE FED FUNDS RATE TO TIGHTEN HAS PUT SO MUCH OF THAT PAIN ON MAIN STREET USA AND DECIDED THEY ARE TOO BIG TO FAIL. EARLIER THIS YEAR WE DECIDED MEDIUM WAS TOO BIG TO FAIL, MEDIUM-SIZED BUSINESSES.
SILICON VALLEY BANK, SIGNATURE BANK. OF LARGE COMPANIES ARE TOO BIG TO FAIL AND BDM SIZE COMPANIES, THE ONE PLACE YOU CAN TIGHTEN IN THE ECONOMY AS SMALL BUSINESSES AND HOUSEHOLDS IN THE FED HAS DONE THAT BY OVERLY RELYING ON THE FED FUNDS RATE. BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION IS CATCHING UP WITH THE BOND MARKET AND WE ARE SEEING TREASURY YIELDS RISE. LISA: TO STICK ON THE POINT TOM WAS TALKING ABOUT, IF YOU HAVE SUCH A SWATH OF THE VOTER BASE THAT IS FEELING THIS KIND OF PAIN AND IF YOU HAVE SMALL BUSINESSES THAT ACCOUNT FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE JOBS LOSING MOMENTUM, WINDOWS THAT START TO TRICKLE INTO A HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WHEN DOES IT START TO REINFORCE AND BRING RATES DOWN BECAUSE OF SLOWER GROWTH? TOM: WE WERE ALREADY AT THAT POINT IN MARCH OF THIS YEAR. WE HAD FINANCIAL STABILIZATION VIA LIQUIDITY INJECTIONS. WHEN DOES IT BEGIN TO BITE AGAIN? SOMETIME BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND VALENTINE'S DAY WHEN THE CONSUMER GETS THOSE LATE 2023 CREDIT CARD BILLS IN JANUARY AND YOU START TO SEE A PULLBACK.
I DO NOT SEE ANY SLOWDOWN IN CONSUMPTION. WE DO NOT SEE IT LAST WEEK. THAT SUGGESTS THE LABOR MARKET WILL REMAIN STRONG BUT AT SOME POINT THOSE HIGHER INTEREST RATES WILL BITE ALL QUARTERS OF THE ECONOMY, NOT JUST SMALL BUSINESSES AND HOUSEHOLDS. LISA: ARE YIELDS RISING BECAUSE OF THE PERCEPTION OF STRENGTH GIVEN BY SOME OF THE BIGGER BUSINESSES? TOM T.: I THINK YIELDS ARE RISING BECAUSE WE ARE SEEING SUPPLY COME IN AND SCARE THE BOND VIGILANTES. THE BOND VIGILANTES ARE BACK. MANUS: THEY HAVE BEEN UNLEASHED IN THE U.S. AND THE U.K.
WHEN YOU TRIGGER 5% AND YOU SEE THE CURVE MOVING SO AGGRESSIVELY , DO YOU THINK WE HAD SOME KIND OF A POINT WERE RISK PARITY TRADES BEGIN TO GET SMACKED OR WHERE VIRAL LIMITS AND VARIOUS TRADING HOUSES GET TRIGGERED. TO THINK WE WILL GO INTO THAT NEXT EVOLUTION? TOM T.: THAT IS A TOUGH QUESTION. THIS IS THE THIRD SUBSTANTIAL
RISE IN 10 YEAR TREASURIES. EACH TIME YOU'VE PROBABLY SEEN THOSE STRATEGIES TAKE LEVERAGE OFF ALONG THE WAY. THE SENSITIVITY TODAY TO 5% IS PROBABLY LESS THAN IT WAS TO A 3% TWO YEARS AGO BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN SOME LEVERAGE THAT HAS COME OFF. THERE IS ALWAYS ANOTHER BREAKPOINT. WE MIGHT'VE ALREADY HID. THERE IS A BREAKPOINT WHERE YOU WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LEVERAGE COME OFF. IT IS PROBABLY A MULTISTEP PROCESS, BUT THAT IS ONE OF THE REASONS WE ARE SEEING THE S&P OFF AGAIN AND CREDIT SPREADS INCHING HIGHER. WE ARE GETTING THAT CLOSE.
MANUS: WHO STEPS IN? DURATION HEROES ARE NOT TO BE SEEN. YOUR TRADING ABOVE 5%. INSURANCE COMPANIES HAVE A DIFFERENT ACCOUNTING SYSTEM. WHO STEPS INTO THIS BOND MARKET TO COUNT YIELDS? TOM T.:
THERE IS A GOOD AND A BAD TO THIS. THE GOOD IS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF PLAIN FIXED INCOME STRATEGIES THAT WILL LOVE TO KEEP BUYING AND BUYING TREASURIES. THE BAD NEWS IS THOSE ARE PRICE-SENSITIVE INVESTORS. THEY ARE NOT LIKE THE LEVERAGED INVESTORS. THEY WILL COME IN AFTER THE CONCESSION. TREASURY SUPPLY COMES IN, THEY
COME IN AND BUYING THE CHEAP. TOM: YOU ARE A GRIZZLED VETERAN. I WILL GIVE YOU TWO IDEAS. ONE THAT THE BID WALKS AWAY. THE OTHER ON THE PRICE OF BONDS. THE BID WALKS AWAY AND CHRIS WHALEN CALLS THIS THE SILENCE. YOU BUY TICKETS AND YOU SELL TICKETS. YOU'RE ON YOUR PHONE AND YOU
SAY I HAVE A LOT OF THE TRILLION DOLLARS AND THERE IS JUST SILENCE. NOBODY WANTS THAT PIECE OF PAPER. ARE WE CLOSE TO THAT? TOM T.: SOME SAY WE HAVE HIT THAT. THERE WAS A LOT OF FEAR ON THE 30 YEAR OPTION AND OPTIONS ON THE FRONT OF THE CURVE. TOM: NORWAY CALLS UP AND SAYS I HAVE TO SELL A ZILLION YEARS OF MANUS CRANNY 2042. IS THERE SOMEONE THERE TO BUY THE GARBAGE? TOM T.: THERE IS BUT YOU'LL HAVE TO BUY
THE PRICE CONCESSION. THE TREASURY IS NO LONGER IMMUNE TO THIS. TOM: PRICE CONCESSION IN THE LISA ABRAMOWICZ CAMP. LISA: TO SUMMIT ALTOGETHER, ARE YOU GETTING COMPENSATED FOR UNCERTAINTY? ARE YOU BUYING DURATION? TOM T.: WE WOULD BE. OUR OWN MEMBER -- OUR OWN
MEASURE OF THE TERM PREMIUM IS ABOVE 100 BASIS POINTS. THAT IS A VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL, NOT JUST SYMBOLICALLY, BUT IT WILL TELL YOU YOU ARE GETTING A NORMALIZED CUSHION FOR THAT UNCERTAINTY. WE DO NOT -- THIS DOES NOT MEET WE CANNOT SEE YIELDS TICK HIGHER. TOM: JASON EMAILS IN AND SAYS TALK ABOUT ME. LET'S TALK ABOUT JASON.
HOW IS YOUR FIXED INCOME ANALYSIS FOLDER INTO JASON'S CALL ON THE EQUITY MARKET? TOM T.: IT MAKES US THAT MUCH MORE BEARISH ON THE ECONOMY BECAUSE WE CONTINUE TO SEE ANOTHER SOURCE OF STRESS FOR THE CONSUMER AND NOW BUSINESS IS PICKING UP. WE HAVE DELAYED RECESSION AND WE HAVE SAID WILL AVOID RESCISSION AT ALL COSTS IN 2023, BUT THERE IS COST TO THAT. THE COST IS THAT -- THERE IS MORE RISK OF FINANCIAL CREDIT EVENTS. TOM: ARE YOU PREDICTING THAT? TOM T.: NOTHING WE CAN SEE RIGHT NOW BUT BY THE NATURE OF THOSE EVENTS YOU CANNOT SEE THEM. A 5% TO 10 YEAR TREASURY IT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT IT WAS AT 3.50%.
WE DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING AT THIS MOMENT BUT IT IS ON THE HORIZON. TOM: THE EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AS WELL. THE 2-10 SPREAD 13 BASIS POINT. I TOLD TOM HE CANNOT LEAVE THE SET UNTIL WE GET TO DISTANT VERSION. 10 YEAR REAL YIELD 2.51%.
FUTURES -17% -- FUTURES A -17, THAT IS -.4%. LISA: EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR SOMETHING TO BREAK. ARGUABLY IN MARCH IT DID, THE FED CAME IN. WHY HAVEN'T FEDS -- WHY HAVING THINGS BROKEN YET? TOM: BECAUSE OF BUYBACKS. ROBERT SHIPMAN IS A JEWEL.
HE GOES THROUGH THE BUYBACK PROCESS OF BIG TECH. MANUS CRANNY STATE -- CHANNELING ALIX STEEL. CHEVRON BUYBACK TO INCREASE $20 BILLION A YEAR AFTER BUYING THE NEW YORK JETS PETROLEUM COMPANY. MANUS:
THIS IS THE INCENTIVE TO THE SHAREHOLDERS TO GET IT ACROSS THE LINE. BUYBACKS HAVE BEEN THE REASON WHY WE JUSTIFY THERE'S NO ALTERNATIVE. LISA: BUYBACKS -- TOM: BUYBACKS ARE THERE AND WE WILL SEE A LOT OF THAT INTO THE EARNINGS SEASON. LISA: IF THAT IS THE CASE, WHY ARE CHEVRON SHARES LOWER 3%? MANUS: FREE CASH FLOW WILL DOUBLE. THEY WILL DO A MONSTER BUYBACK.
WHO KNOWS? TOM: HE GOES INTO FIDELITY AND THEY SAY THAT. MANUS: I WISH SOME ANALYSTS WOULD SAY WE ARE UNSURE OF THE REGION. TOM: ON IT TYPICALLY MERGER IT POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT UNTIL THEY COLOR OUT WHAT SYNERGIES ARE. I DO NOT KNOW HOW YOU HAVE SYNERGIES AND GROWTH PETROLEUM KILLING ITEM LIKE KIANA EAST OF VENEZUELA. TOM:
DO YOU KNOW THE WAY TO GUIANA? TOM: BOB HOPE MOVIE FROM 1946. COMING UP, ALIX STEEL ON CONVERSATION ON CHEVRON AND HAS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. GOOD MORNING. ♪ >> I THINK IT IS A FANTASTIC ACQUISITION GIVEN THE FACT THAT KIANA IS GOING TO BE THE MOST PROLIFIC SUPPLY GROWTH IN THE COMING YEARS. EXXON ALREADY HAS A FOOTPRINT AS DOES HESS. CHEVRON GETS EXPOSURE TO THAT.
GUIANA PRODUCTION HAS BEEN GROWING. TOM: AMRITA SEN, BRILLIANT AS WE GET UP TO SPEED ON WHAT CHEVRON IS DOING. CHEVRON, ONE OF OUR GIANT OIL COMPANIES HAS ACQUIRED A COMPANY FOUNDATIONAL TO NEW YORK CITY IN MANHATTAN AND ALL OF THE NORTHEAST. IT IS HESS. IN CONVERSATION THIS MORNING
WITH WORTH OF CHEVRON, A KNOWN COMMODITY, ALIX STEEL JOINS US ON LEON HESS'S SON JOHN HESS. WHY DID HE AFFECT THE $60 BILLION TRANSACTION? ALIX: I DON'T KNOW AND I WILL ASK HIM LATER ON. I SAY I DON'T KNOW BECAUSE YOU CAN USUALLY SEE AND ACQUIREE WANTING TO DO IT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. TOM: THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT. ALIX STEEL IS THE ONLY ONE WHO IS ACTUALLY BEEN TO OKLAHOMA.
THE REST OF US TALK ABOUT IT LIKELY KNOW IT. SHE KNOWS THE ZIP CODES AND THE DINERS AND THE WHOLE THING. ALIX: THE STREET WAS QUITE SURPRISED ON THIS. ALSO BECAUSE WHERE YOU SEE AND THINK WE WILL SEE CONSOLIDATION IS THE PERMIAN. NO ONE WAS LOOKING OUT FOR WHAT THE KIANA M&A WILL BRING -- FOR WHAT THE GUIANA M&A WILL BRING. LISA: THERE IS A QUESTION THAT PEOPLE WERE THINKING ABOUT THIS IN THE SHALE PATCH BUT AM RITA SAID SAID THIS WAS JUST THE BEGINNING.
HOW MUCH IS THIS THE TIP OF AN ICEBERG YOU SEE PERCOLATING MUCH MORE QUICKLY? ALIX: IT IS ACTUALLY ABOUT CAPITAL DISCIPLINE, WHICH I KNOW IT'S WEIRD TO SAY WHEN YOU HAVE A $60 BILLION DEAL, BUT IT IS CAPITAL DISCIPLINE BECAUSE THAT IS CHEAPER THAN POURING DECADES INTO A BROWNFIELD OR GREENFIELD EXPLANATION -- EXPLORATION? LISA: HOW MUCH ARE WE LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE THE BE LESS DRILLING OR EFFICIENCIES OF SCALE? ALIX: THAT IS IT BECAUSE OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION. IF YOU ARE CHEVRON WILL YOU BUILD ANOTHER GOURD GONE IN AUSTRALIA THAT COULD TAKE DECADES TO GET UP AND RUNNING. YOU WILL NOT DO THAT. YOU'LL WILL PAY FOR $60 BILLION
FOR HASH. TOM: THIS GOES BACK TO YEARS AGO WHEN THEY SAID YOU CANNOT DIG ANYMORE. YOU HAVE TO BUY THE EXISTING THING WHICH IS GUIANA.
MANUS: I THINK THE POIN
2023-10-25 12:41
