Assessing the Business Impact of Quantum Technologies

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OODAcast informing your decisions with  intelligence analysis and insight brought   to you by the team at oodaloop.com hello I'm  Bob Gourley the chief technology officer of   OODA LLC and today on the udacast Lawrence  gassman the president of inside Quantum   technology Lawrence thanks for joining us today  sure thanks for inviting me Lawrence I've been a   fan of your site for a long time you guys provide  a lot of information in a very I think unique way   for Business Leaders and I definitely want to  talk about Quantum and Quantum Technologies but   first wanted to ask a bit about your background  can you tell us who Lawrence gassman is and   um how you got into the role of President of  inside Quantum technology well I'm old so I've had   plenty of time to get there um as far as education  goes I've always been a nerd uh going way back   um my first degree from University of Manchester  in England was in mathematics and philosophy uh   and then I went on it's not really clear from  the fact that my next part was the London School   of Economics uh there's a lot of things that  London School of economics and I went to scout to   study mathematical logic and philosophy of  science and had I finished my PhD which I didn't   um I would have been writing a paper  on quantum mechanics I mean a thesis   on quantum mechanics and but more from a  philosophical point of view so I've been   involved with quantum mechanics a long  time more than half a century I suppose   um and then a lot of things happened to me which  we don't need to go into but um I ended up getting   my MBA at London Business School which turned out  to be a very valuable education for what I ended   up doing I so I guess I've indicated I originally  grew up in the UK moved to the states um and got   involved with the analyst Community initially in  uh in the Telecom business and Advanced Materials   um then in 3D printing actually and finally in  quantum uh technology um and throughout that   the time I've been here I've owned or partially  earned analyst firms in that space right and so   uh today you're at inside Quantum technology  and I know that as both a site and a community   you hold events and you bring folks together and  you produce research did I get that about right   yeah pretty right uh we have a podcast um we have  a site that um it is a new site primarily um we   put out um market research reports on a fairly  regular basis on our topics of interest in the   quantum community and as you say we have uh trade  shows slash conferences in both the US and Europe   um I've missed something I'm sure of it but I  can't think about right now so all right well   through that I know you're all good communicators  and that's some of the questions I wanted to ask   you may test some of your communication skills  uh Lawrence because one thing I really think is   still lacking is more business Executives need to  understand this world of quantum effects but you   don't expect Business Leaders to have a background  in quantum mechanics and I wanted to ask how you   explain to people this world of quantum mechanics  how do you talk to a business leader about this   so to be fair um there will be some Business  Leaders who do know something about it certainly   in um Electronics or the electronics Industry  or maybe even in the farmer industry uh the   kinds of people who are leading the companies  uh often have phds or at least master's degrees   in the science so they would have started  quantum mechanics and know a lot about it   um you know they may never teach it or anything  um I think one way of explaining it on the on the   fingers of one hand as it were would be to say  look with regular Computing as everybody knows   from high school you've got ones and zeros and  that's the high level theoretical side of it but   you have to model it onto something real to make  a computer work so you model it onto Gates and   they're either on or off and it's very simple and  don't knock it for that that's one of the reasons   it's been so successful but obviously it takes  time to compute things that way it takes less   time if instead of ones and zeros you can have uh  essentially an infinite number of states all of   which can carry information problem is you've got  to have something to model it onto and what you   do there and again this is an amazingly simplistic  view of it is to model it on to Quantum phenomena   the kind of really weird Quantum phenomena one  of them's entire government but what it all   boils down to is in a Quantum machine you've  got a fantastic level of parallel processing   you're just not doing something linear you know  one plus one plus one you're doing one plus one   plus one and then somewhere else you're doing  103 plus again you know not very good examples   because you can do it in parallel your  the speed the times of computing speed up   um and to take a very well known  example you can break a code   um uh the kind of codes for we use all the time  for encryption um with a regular computer but it   might take and then here you've got to believe  what people say I've seen everything from 9   000 years to 9 billion years but it doesn't matter  because it is going you know I mean you're not   going to sit around and wait but it could be down  to nine hours if you're um if you're using your   quantum computer and then that becomes a real  threat to you know pretty standard encryption   right thanks that is a very clear and helpful  articulation of these Quantum effects and   Quantum Computing very helpful and you  also mentioned something else you said   entanglement and this is another one that's is  this is the one that Einstein called spooky Magic   seems so hard to understand the reality  of things at this super small level   yeah it really is and and that's a perfect  example um so he actually called it spooky   action at a distance spooky action at a distance  action at a distance and the the classical physics   you don't have action at the distance if you know  if I'm moving you but there has to be something   intervening and in really classical Computing you  have particles that are moving between things and   and he wanted he think Einstein wanted to reduce  all physics to that and he thought anything that   appeared to um to go against that was there  was something methodologically wrong with it   um and it turns out in entanglement you can  entangle two particles to Quantum particles   two Elementary particles in a way that if I  do something to particle a it automatically   instantaneously happens to particle B um and uh  then you get yourself into all sorts of paradoxes   which is faster than light information and you're  right people don't understand it and actually   nobody understands that particular uh thing but  it turns out ironically that you can you can work   with it and do interesting things with it even if  we don't understand it I just occurred to me it's   like hypnosis nobody knows how that works either  um right but people are hypnotized routinely every   day so um but what it all means is whether I was  going to wrap my PhD gets thesis on about 50 years   ago but uh that won't happen now so right well one  thing we know for sure is that experiments tell   us again and again and again that this is how it  works even if we don't know why it works that way   all these things I think there's quite a bit of  experimental evidence saying this is how it works   yeah so um if you take that spooky  action as a distance uh thingy   um there was a guy called oh what was he called  Bell I can't talk with his first name is Irish   physicist and essentially he came up with a way of  um showing that um under any reasonable condition   uh we really did have spooky action there's a  distance and then much more recently and French   physicists could Alan aspect who actually was part  of the quantum technology Community now he works   for a firm um he showed that experimentally  it must be right and there's still people   who take the Einstein point of view and are  trying to show that it's right but that's a   whole different story right all this stuff is  very interesting and I think every high school   today teaches these uh strange effects where  at that scale something can be both a wave   and a particle which is counterintuitive  if you're thinking at our scale but at the   quantum level is extremely important extremely  important Quantum effect to understand I think   yeah now actually uh some of those experiments  go back a Long Way to the 19th century but uh one   of the debates that used to be held is whether  it only applies a very small scale and I think   the consensus is it now it applies to everything  including you and me um it's just that the quantum   effects tends to cancel themselves out so you know  you're a Quantum entity and we could do Quantum   Computing with you um but it would be quite  difficult to do and meet exclude myself um but   uh um well the sure thing is cat experiment that  everybody thinks they know about is essentially   showing that that a Quantum event can kill a cat  which shows that it can impact uh macro level this   is all very fascinating and um I can see how um  you were talking about your earlier degree of   mathematics and philosophy it kind of all fits  um some of this because it really does yeah   but it's also oh go ahead oh I was just going  to say there's been a couple of periods in   the there's been a couple of periods in the  history of quantum mechanics when it's become   more about philosophy than about physics and you  can find some of that still around yeah and I tell   you as a as a business guy I'm very excited about  how all of this Theory and all of this experiment   is now translating into the business world and  businesses have been stood up to bring these kind   of things to Market and of course there's a big  research by Google and IBM and Microsoft on new   ways of doing Quantum Computing and of course  d-wave and others so it's a very exciting time   in the business world where all these theoretical  constructs are being turned into real capabilities   there's a probably oh somebody's going  to write in and tell you I'm an idiot but   I think that's about probably about eight to  ten companies with quantum computers right now   um of different degrees of power for different  applications uh you mentioned some of them   um the there's also probably another 20 or 30  companies who produce Quantum processors which   are the same thing as processors in any computer  they're the gats of the computer they're the   things that the Computing but whereas IBM uh  take a very good example is producing a full   stack computer which is you know it's it's  everything you plug it in and it works the   processor is simply the thing that goes at the  in the center of it like you know Intel is one   of the companies producing Quantum processes or  engineering month and work engineering research   on them and you know at the heart of a lot of a  lot of non-quantum machines as well and then of   course there's people working on Quantum security  Quantum sensors and Quantum networks all of which   have something to do with each other right and  Lawrence let me ask your view about this first   let me give you kind of a thesis I believe that  well guys like you you've been studying Quantum   for a long time and you have a background an  academic background where you studied it intensely   um and I think you're studying that intensely  for years and writing about it and running inside   Quantum technology gives you good insights a  lot of people don't have that background and   it's hard to understand this technology so  how can we know if the claims of a Quantum   Computing company are valid or not and the reason  I ask this is um in any other domain in Computing   if a company makes a claim I can test that  I can bring it into my lab and see if this   software works the way they said it would or if  their Hardware works the way they said it would   but with Quantum Computing I don't know of any  way to really know if uh claims are valid or not   well yes and no um yes in the sense that we're in  the very early days um so a lot of the I mean are   there quantum computers that's one of those things  you see on Wikipedia is a question and yeah I'm   so sure there are um you know pay enough money to  IBM and they'll ship you and they're doing it now   um but um so that's easily disposed of can it do  anything useful yeah it can it can optimize stuff   pretty well so if you're designing  drugs for instance you can   feed it through some of these machines d-wave  you mentioned specifically has designed their   machine which isn't quite a compute but they're  going to start providing proper computers but   the original one was an optimization machine  so they do do useful things and in that sense   um if you wind up with a better drug or a better  portfolio in a investment house hedge fund or   something you can prove it because it's doing  better than the one you didn't design with that   but um obviously the power of a quantum  computer is depending on the number of   qubits you can handle not bits qubits like I was  talking about at the beginning and we have we we're in a fuzzy period where it's difficult to  show that a useful problem that can't be solved   by a uh regular computer can be solved by quantum  computer but we're getting very close to that time   um I I think and maybe this is an  oversimplification that we've got to a point where   you can invent a problem mathematical problem that  can only be solved by a quantum computer and not   by a regular computer the only thing is it's not  a useful problem you set up the problem to make   the point and and that's by the way a standard  standard way of doing things within mathematics to   you know to to prove a theorem but but obviously  if you're you know you keep on mentioning business   people if you're a practical businessman that  probably sounds pretty stupid and if you're   trying to make money out of that you can't so yeah  you know we're again on the cusp of getting to a   point and it'll it'll happen gradually in this in  one sense it will happen gradually because people   will tackle more and more difficult problems in  another sense it might happen overnight because   we're at such an early stage that break you know  breakthroughs are unpredictable but inevitable   right so maybe um I think that all makes a lot  of sense maybe a close analogy might be the   Wright brothers fly first manned flight  1903 and that airplane could do nothing   um it was you know what's the use case of  that first airplane it couldn't carry the   mail it couldn't you know do anything but it  proved something it proved that man flight   was possible and maybe would you consider  that an analogy to where we are in Quantum   yeah yeah absolutely so if you take I mean the  two applications that come up all the time are   as I mentioned Material Science or lymphoma  or in the uh in the financial services and   um and people are experimenting with this every  major bank has access to quantum computers at this   time you know not your small local banks I live  in rural Virginia and we've got a few banks around   here it's going to be many years before they have  access but uh you know the Goldman Sachs of this   world they're paying a lot of money to put the  the quantum teams that paying a lot of money for   the service but at the end of the day if you were  uh uh putting together a portfolio for some huge   industrial com company would you really hand it  all over to a quantum computer and say yeah this   is it because it is a computer it has the same  error potential and um uh you know you you could   really screw things up completely if if uh if it  goes wrong even more so for making drugs oh sorry   we killed a million people but quantum computers  did it um uh so we've got ways to go before some   of these things can be trusted enough but that  that's always true um you know uh I'm it's not so   true anymore but you know it was a long way from  Wright brothers which was a dangerous thing to   do to flying in a Pan Am InterContinental flight  in the 60s right these days not that Pleasant to   fly but the analogy breaks down but you know  what I mean yeah absolutely absolutely yeah   all right and Lawrence I want to you also  mentioned uh Quantum sensing and I hear that   term a lot and to me when I think of quantum  sensing I think of the medical devices in most   hospitals today uh like the MRI for example  is using Quantum effects to understand what's   going on in your body is that kind of the state  of quantum sensing today well yes and no again   um there are sensors quite a lot of them actually  but the majority of actually magnetometers but   it's true across a whole range of sensing like  sensors and motion sensors and things that use   quantum phenomena uh specifically to measure  things and and the point there kind of sorter is   the Quantum phenomena are very sensitive um so I  suppose you could make the case that every kind of   Medical Imaging is is a Quantum thing but they're  talking when they talk about that they're talking   about new forms of Imaging with explicitly Quantum  phenomena at their core um and there's a number of   different types and they are very good at uh  identifying uh tumors and all sorts of things   um some of them are in Practical effect most  of them aren't um but every I'm sure this is   wrong but I'm going to say it anyway that every  sensor has a Quantum equivalent that's that much   um that much more effective sensitive whatever  and it's really got to do with the quantum events   always so sensitive to intervention of some kind  that you know you could make some fairly fantastic   things out of it um Quantum sensing is actually  becoming a hot topic now it had been pretty much   an academic topic and when we started this series  of conferences it was an academic topic but uh   you're now seeing real military applications or  it uh Medical Imaging applications for it and   there were people who have finding ways of turning  arrays of quantum sensors into quantum computers   uh counter quantum computers are based on in some  ways fairly conventional technology but there's a   half a dozen ways of doing it including Atomic  Computing with Quantum phenomena and it using   sensors is the it's a basic physical fabric I  mean that's over R and D stuff it's not out there   all right thanks Lawrence that's good context  and you also mentioned earlier Quantum security   and I wanted to mention a friend of mine who I  interviewed on the udacast last year uh Vic Vikram   Sharma who's the CEO of quintessence labs and uh  he like you I think is a he's a good explainer and   uh and I think he has to be in his field because  uh what quintessence Labs does is leverage Quantum   effects to generate encryption keys and do that at  you know they can do Millions a second and he has   to be able to explain that to busy Security  Professionals who are not Quantum experts   um but he's where I've learned a lot about Quantum  security from but would love your context on the   leveraging of quantum effects for the security  side of the equation so I know Vikram uh I know   what quintessence Labs does but um so part of this  is it's not physics it's coincidence most of the   security that we use at the moment and have  done for 40 years is is public key encryption   um and that means that part of the key part  of the code travels over a public network   um and because you have the code book at the other  end literally but the equivalent um it doesn't   matter that anyone can get it um what's being  looked and the funny thing is that they could   have chosen a lot of different encryption schemes  which might be very difficult to break even with   the quantum computer uh it turns out they chose  one that's very easy to break with a quantum   computer and and that's just weirdness in history  and there's several levels of weirdness to it   um so there's two ways of doing something about  that and uh one of them is called uh qkd uh   Quantum key distribution which  means that the channel That the uh   the channel that the key goes in is protected  using Quantum technology essentially it's a bit   it's a lot like a um it's a lot like uh it's  not like Quantum sensing actually uh when you   try to break in and get the key if you're a  bad person um it just disappears on you um and   um you know so that's Quantum protecting  protecting Quantum from Quantum I suppose uh the   other way of doing it and that's what contestants  labs and about 20 other companies are doing   um uh and some of them are shifting stuff some  of them aren't uh the other way of doing it is   to say look we screwed up we should have an  entirely different kinds of just regular not   Quantum way of encrypting things that just aren't  that vulnerable to quantum computers and that's   what uh it's called post Quantum encryption  that's what that is and um since today I'll   mention that uh nist and government agency  part of um part of uh Department of Commerce   um has held a competition for the best  post-quantum encryption schemes and they announced   the uh they announced the winners today actually I  just haven't had a chance to look at who they were   um and uh at least one friend of mine  is competing in that so there's nothing   Quantum about post Quantum cryptography it's  just that the consideration is that it's not   hard to it's not it's very hard to break with  the quantum computer so that's the two things   that's happening in that space all right  thanks good context and uh regarding the   nist announcement I haven't read that myself  yet either but have been anticipating it   um I'll definitely put the link in our  show notes as soon as we publish this   well I wanted to be fair to this I was going  to say there's no there's no real end to this   because people will be coming out with new forms  of software and encryption and things so you know   then this announcement is in many ways the first  stage which will keep us going for a few years   right all right so I have a feeling this may  also coalesce a lot more r d spending because   now I think businesses will feel more comfortable  that they're investing in something that has legs   um do you share that view yeah I mean some of the  big numbers you see are often from governments   um who have uh you know Quantum programs   um even little countries like well particularly  Holland have 650 million through into it a year   or so ago um and I mean that's everything so  it goes into education and you know if you   if you have to pay to ship something it's in there  too so it's not you really don't see 600 million   dollars worth of Staff um as far as businesses  go I'd say they're already investing usually uh   at the level of r d and just trying things out um  I mentioned two industries that are particularly   using it but it's right across the board um and  I'm an automotive industry and transportation   they're using it too but in very experimental  ways um uh so it's part of their r d budget   um so I think the other part of the question  that you asked was how long will it take to pay   off and and the answer maybe God knows um I don't  know that any of them are entering this thinking   you know that there's a promise that it's going to  pay off anytime soon um what they hope I suppose   is it will pay off and also that it places them  as leaders in in the field uh I mentioned the   financial services industry and um I think I  said Goldman Sachs and and it is spending a   lot of money on developing a Quantum department  but so but think of a major bank and so are they   um and you know in every country really and um  uh again my my little bank that I bank with here   it's not so little actually it's all the way down  to Florida probably isn't thinking about that but   if you're based in the if your headquarters are  in New York you kind of are because if you don't   your shareholders are going to want to know why  I I'd say we're still at the point that some of   this stuff just isn't going to work out and this  already some cases where it hasn't but um uh but   and we'll not know for a few years uh you know I  don't I've already mentioned my age I don't expect   to be around during the real area of quantum  technology but it's happening fast now well   Lawrence one thing I know will be around is inside  Quantum technology you got a great company and   it's going to endure uh for a century I just know  it so thanks for building that yes for a century   pleasure it wasn't just me of course but yeah I  know it takes a team but you're a great leader and   I appreciate you building that site and using it  to explain to all of us these Quantum Technologies   and Lawrence thank you very much for joining us  today on the udacast I really appreciate it uh   my pleasure I enjoyed every moment thanks for  listening to this ooda Loop production for the   latest analysis on cyber security technology  and Global risks please visit www.oodaloop.com

2022-09-04

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