Analyzing Russia's Massive Failures in War Against Ukraine
It's been one year since Russia began its war to defeat Russia by invading Ukraine, and in that time Vladimir Putin has set himself up to become the most catastrophic Russian leader in modern history. This is the ultimate compendium of Russia's failures so far. Russia's failures begin before the war started. When planning a military campaign there are certain steps critical to the planning process. First, one must sort out the internal logistics of a military action: supply and logistics chains stretching back to the factories that produce your war fighting kit need to be evaluated for robustness in an increased tempo environment.
Food and medical supplies need to be stockpiled and pre-staged for rapid distribution. Plans for the ongoing resupply of forces, while accounting for battlefield attrition of your logistics force, need to be established. The domestic temperature needs to be taken into account, just how supportive is your population of the war to come? Intelligence assessments of your enemy's capabilities must be conducted. Predictions about the international response to your military action must be made with plans to account for different scenarios.
Instead of doing most of this, Putin just said “Yolo” and sent his tanks into Ukraine. To be fair, there was some preparation for the invasion. Putin tasked his intelligence services with infiltrating Ukraine and “taking the temperature” so to speak. In 2014
when Russia annexed Crimea, it did so with a significant amount of local support. It also completely overran a Ukrainian military that was as disorganized, inefficient, and untrained as... well, Russia's military today. Because Ukrainian forces for the most part broke and ran, Russian forces never got a chance to truly shine- and by “truly shine” we mean show the world, and Russia, that its military is a bunch of clown shoes. It's easy to be the second best army in the world when nobody is putting up a fight. The details remain unconfirmed, but what is known is that the intelligence reports returning from Ukraine were favorable- the Ukrainian military would hardly put up a fight and its people would largely welcome Russians as liberators How in the world anybody believed that last part after Ukraine erupted into violence against its Russian-backed President eight years earlier is beyond any of us here at the Infographics office. Very credible rumors have circulated around those intelligence reports, with allegations that the operatives tasked with carrying out this operation had in fact pocketed the millions of rubles given to them by Putin and simply made up favorable reports. These rumors remain unverified, but are
extremely believable for multiple reasons. First of all, corruption is the name of the game in the Russian military and government, more on that later. Second, Putin kept his intentions to invade Ukraine secret from all but his most senior staff- at the time of the invasion, the vast majority of the military was completely unaware that it would be crossing into Ukraine. More on that later as well. Thus it's completely believable that corrupt intelligence officials simply pocketed
the money figuring that Putin would never be crazy enough to invade his next door neighbor. Shortly after the invasion , Sergey Beseda was put on house arrest. By April, he was in prison. His deputy was also placed under house arrest, and rumors are several other intelligence officers had been imprisoned. Not only had Putin's intelligence services, whom were feared globally during the Cold War, misjudged Putin, but they had completely misjudged what little intelligence work they had bothered to do. Thus it came as a
surprise to all when Ukrainians greeted Russian invaders with Kalashnikovs instead of flowers. But the pre-invasion fail train doesn't stop at just this station. Because Putin had kept the invasion secret, when the Russian military was mobilized it did so without taking into account the supply and logistics chains which would be needed to push hundreds of kilometers into Ukraine. Instead, units were given enough supplies for a few days. Because the Russian military is basically fueled by corruption at every level, we have verified reports from the very eve of the invasion of Russian soldiers selling gasoline and diesel for alcohol and cigarettes to locals. In a professional, western military, you might have been able to keep a cross-border invasion secret without worrying about your soldiers literally selling their own equipment to the nearest taker, but this is Russia.
The lack of logistics planning also meant that Russian forces basically had no plan for resupply deep inside of Ukraine. Putin, whom it's important to note has no military background, apparently thinks that food, fuel, and ammo can simply be wished into existence by soldiers on the move, because while planning his top secret military invasion he never bothered to have the head of his logistics command in on the planning. Thus Russian logistics, which are already famously terrible, were caught completely unprepared to support a fully mobilized expeditionary force deep inside enemy territory. And then suddenly, the go-order was given and nearly 200,000 Russian soldiers realized that they were not on exercises. That's when things got really stupid.
In 1991, the United States military led an international coalition against one of the largest military forces in the world- the Iraqi army. In a matter of weeks, the Iraqi military was defeated in what is possibly the single most one-sided war in history. Ten years later, the US did it again- and this time with a fraction of the troops and allies. Both times it absolutely trounced any resistance put up against it through a combination of multi-domain warfare, technological superiority, and very well trained, professional troops a significant cut above their counterparts. Vladimir Putin saw both US victories and thought, yeah- I can totally do that too.
He could not. To be perfectly fair, it's not really Putin's fault he believed his forces were even remotely capable of 1/10th of what the US and NATO could do. Vladimir Putin has ensured his own political survival thanks to a breakout of freak accidents involving political rivals falling out of windows or accidentally running into bullets fired by assassins. Over the years, he has consolidated his grip on power and like any good dictator, surrounded himself by weak Yes-Men whom he perpetually pits against each other. By making sure that those around him hate each other
more than him, Putin ensures that none of them can gather the support needed to oust him from power. However, this level of extreme corruption has a direct impact on the running of a government. For starters, if you're appointing thoroughly corrupt yes-men to positions of power, you can bet that in order to secure their own power, they are doing the exact same thing under them. This repeats itself on and on down the line to the point that you have even individual unit commanders who's qualifications are not competency or ability, but loyalty. The real problem comes when it's time to do a self-evaluation, a health check-up if you will. Rather than passing along negative news about things like readiness, equipment condition, and troop training, you pass along favorable reports instead- because after all, any negative reports could be capitalized on by others wanting your position, and the last thing your boss wants is to tell his boss something they don't want to hear.
It's like a game of telephone, only the original message being passed along is already an outrageous lie. But this culture of corruption bred by Putin is even more insidious, because like an aggressive cancer, it eats the Russian military alive from the inside out. After all, if you are corrupt and stealing public funds, you can bet your syrniki that the person under you is doing the same. On and on down the chain to the point that conscript soldiers are tearing the wiring out of combat vehicles so that it can be sold for cash- under the direct orders of older conscripts who threaten them with beatings if they don't find a way to raise enough cash for them to buy vodka and cigarettes. Those older conscripts, naturally, are already busy selling grenades and ammunition from the armory. Thus, while Vladimir Putin reviewed readiness reports as he prepared for an invasion, he could hardly be blamed for not knowing that his military was an absolute shit-show, hardly prepared for basic parade drills let alone invading another country. Having drunk
his own kool-aid, Putin gave the go-ahead and even planned his invasion believing he was at the head of the world's second most powerful army. Within hours though it was clear he'd have to fight for title of most powerful army inside Ukraine. The initial plan was for a lighting strike into Kyiv, with the vaunted Russian paratroopers at the very tip of the spear. They would take key air fields around Kyiv and hold them long enough for Russia to fly in reinforcements, with an armored thrust south out of Belarus to add mass to the attack. Within three days the capital and Zelenskyy’s government would both fall. It was a bold, ambitious plan, a lighting operation to make even the United
States envy Russia's capabilities- one that would put Putin in the history books. And it did put him in the history books, just not quite how he envisioned it. Operation Fail Hard, Fail Fast began with a pre-emptive attack on Ukrainian radar and air defense sites and command and control networks. This is always a good idea before any military invasion. It's an even better idea however when you have actual up-to-date maps. In a turn of events that will surprise absolutely none of you, Russian maps were out of date, with many of them going back to the Soviet era. This meant that many modern installations were unaccounted for, or the maps were inaccurate enough that precision strikes... well, weren't. During the Gulf War,
the US famously put a bomb through a ventilation shaft of an Iraqi government buildings. In February of 2022, Russia was lucky if its missiles were hitting the right city. But to be fair, the initial Russian bombardment succeeded in disrupting the Ukrainian air defense network, though this was largely due to the effect of electromagnetic attack and the fact that Ukraine believed it was facing the second most powerful army in the world. Thus Ukrainian air defenses quickly moved from their positions in a famous tactic known as “don't be where you were when the bombs fall”. But whereas the US spent weeks prepping Iraq for invasion the first time,
and months using special forces and CIA operatives to undermine the Iraqi military and identify targets the second time, the Russian military threw a handful of missiles around Ukraine and called it “good enough”. This would soon be a disastrous decision. The disruption of Ukraine's air defense network allowed for the insertion of low-flying helicopters carrying hundreds of soon-to-be-corpses. The Russian VDV, or paratroopers, are Russia's most elite troops- so celebrated that they even have their own official holiday. No news on what 2023's festivities will look like considering many of them are now dead.
The paratroopers were dispatched to airfields outside of Kyiv, where supported by attack helicopters and a few combat jets, overwhelmed the initial defenders. The plan was going swimmingly, reinforcements were loading up into transport jets, and the VDV had its first actual military victory against a conventional foe since WW2. However, within 48 hours the VDV would go from proudly displaying the might of Russia's airborne forces on hostile soil, to being turned into road kill. We're not kidding either. According to Georgian Legion commander Mamuka Mamulashvili, when he ran out of ammo he got into a car and pursued the fleeing Russian paratroopers, running several over.
The plan to take Kyiv in 3 days had failed, and the war would turn into a catastrophe for Russia. But what went wrong? We all know that Russia underestimated Ukraine, but the level of underestimation goes past simple “our intelligence was bad, slash, we didn't do any intelligence work”, all the way to pure arrogance. Without a preparatory bombardment on the Ukrainian air defense network before the invasion, the nation's air defense units were quickly back on the job. This immediately shut down the air space around Kyiv to the Russian air forces,
preventing them from supporting the airborne forces with close air support. And they needed that air support badly, because they were up shit creek with no paddle. The initial defenders at Antonov and Hostomel airports were largely conscripts, and easily overrun. However, within hours Ukrainian special forces and regular mechanized infantry responded to the assault. This was never supposed to happen.
Prior to the invasion, Russia had slipped multiple units of Spetsnatz into Kyiv. Their mission was twofold- eliminate the Zelenskyy government and sow chaos amongst the defenders of the city. As the most elite of elite forces in the Russian military, the Spetsnatz were more than up for the task. Or so you would think if like most Russians, you've been on a steady diet of copium since the end of the Cold war. Details here are incredibly scarce, and likely will never
be fully known until long after the end of the war. What is known however is that these units failed catastrophically at their job. There are multiple reports of mob justice against Russian special forces, and the details are too grim to post on Youtube. Suffice to say, Ukraine's own special forces and even civilians had a lot to say about the Spetsnatz plan.
Over at Hostomel airport, not only did Russia suffer the loss of multiple helicopters to ground fire, but once they managed to land, Ukrainian artillery devastated the airborne troopers. In a regular, competent military, this would never happen- or would be quickly neutralized by overhead air support. However, not only did Russia not bother with a preparatory air campaign, but aside from helicopters, its ability to provide air support for ground forces is limited- at least with any form of precision. Few Russian pilots are even trained for a ground support role, and just as few Russian
planes have the required targeting pods for it. Lack of training is hardly surprising, considering that Russian pilots have been struggling to get 60 hours of flight time a year, while US pilots are getting an average of 120- and this is considered dangerously low for the Air Force. With air support shut out of the sky by Ukrainian air defenses, and the plan to fly in reinforcements untenable, the paratroopers were forced to retreat and launch a new assault with the aid of the forces pushing south out of Belarus. Unfortunately, the lack of logistics planning and a series of Ukrainian ambushes severely limited the capabilities of the ground force. Ultimately the attack would fail and Kyiv stood. Military historian Frederick Kagan of the Institute for the Study of War,
would refer to the failure as “stunning”, after citing that he knows of no parallel to a major military power invading a country at a time of its own choosing and failing so utterly. The assault on Kyiv was a complete disaster, but a lack of logistics planning and the basic terrible state of the Russian military itself would lead to one of the most embarrasing moments in modern warfare. Ukrainian defenders bravely fought of Russia’s attack on Kyiv, and Putin responded by pouring even more forces and armored vehicles into the battle. However, now the achille's heel
of the Russian military would be put on full display- and we're going to have to be way more specific because the Russian military has not one, but at least a dozen points of failure. Remember how we mentioned that Putin launched this invasion without consulting his logistics chiefs, and how Russian troops had no idea they were about to invade Ukraine? Well, left to his own devices, Private Conscriptavich sold off as much fuel and food as possible to Belarusian citizens, and without resupply worked out, the massive armored convoy heading to Kyiv just sort of... stalled out. The images were absolutely shocking, 40 miles of tanks, armored personnel carriers, mobile air defenses, and supply trucks all ground to a complete halt. It was reminiscient of the Iraqi mass exodus from Kuwait during the Gulf War, where thousands of vehicles attempted to flee the allied assault. Only this convoy hadn't been brought to a stop by overwhelming air power, instead the Russian convoy had been brought to a stand still by good old fashioned Russian incompetence- just like Uncle Stalin used to make.
A lack of fuel meant diesel-hungry armored vehicles were forced to pull over to the side of the road. But the fuel trucks couldn't reach them because other armored vehicles were waiting for their turn to go. Having set up no staging or resupply areas, a few traffic snarls soon added up to the full-body paralysis of the entire affair. For Ukrainian infantry armed with western anti-tank weapons, it was like shooting fish in a very tiny barrel- and because vehicles like tanks can't just turn their engines on and ride off to combat when the enemy shows up, they were forced to keep their engines idling for hours, resulting in even more vehicles running out of gas. If Ukraine had had a fraction of the air power of even a modestly sized NATO power, such as Spain, Russia would've faced a catastrophic loss of combat power on the highway to Kyiv, reminiscent of the 2,000 or so vehicles Iraq lost on the Highway of Death in 1991. Instead, Ukraine used Turkish made drones to exact painful losses on the stalled out vehicles, which in itself is an absolutely absurd turn of events.
Bayraktar drones are not stealthy, and while they may be low-observable they are easily detected at range by modern air defense radars. Despite this we have multiple videos of Bayraktars taking out Russian air defense vehicles, and the reason why takes the absolute cake for stupidity- and that's a very tough competition given the fact that the Russian military is basically fueled by stupid. Modern short and medium range air defense systems were getting blown to bits by simple Bayraktar drones because... their operators never turned on their air defense radars. Despite being stalled out and vulnerable to air attack, Russian air defense operators largely failed to... defend from air attacks. But even more perplexing, the Russian air force itself did not provide air cover for the
massively vulnerable convoy that was quickly becoming missile-bait for Ukrainian drones. Multiple reasons why this happened have been proposed, ranging from a lack of fuel forcing the vehicles to shut down, to simple incompetence from an overwhelmingly conscript force. However, recently it’s been revealed that the biggest reason Russian air defense operators weren’t defending the convoy from simple drone attacks is because they were jammed- by the Russian military. Its electromagnetic warfare campaign to shut down Ukrainian air defenses resulted in fratricidal jamming across many parts of both fronts, which meant that while Ukrainian air defenses were having trouble engaging Russian planes, the same was true for Russian air defenses. So Ukraine switched to using simple and cheap drones to leisurely hunt
for Russian vehicles and traded inexpensive dumb bombs for multi-million dollar assets. But the disaster was far from over, because as the convoy was forced to slowly, painfully retreat, it was forced to leave many of its vehicles behind- and the world would finally get a good, close-up look at one of the leading causes for the failure of the world's second most powerful army: tires. Tires are important. If you don't believe us, just try driving your car without them. But military tires are even more important, mostly because they are responsible for the mobility of vehicles worth up to tens of millions of dollars. To make sure that
tires are up for the task of keeping heavy and often very armored vehicles running, manufacturers put them through a variety of tests including x-ray imaging to detect defects. But these high quality tires are expensive, and if you're a corrupt logistics officer in the Russian military, that's money that could be better spent on babushkas and vodka. As the convoy retreated, dozens upon dozens of vehicles were discovered pushed to the side of the road. These vehicles were completely undamaged and had tanks full of fuel, but the tires had burst. A quick investigation revealed that the Russian military was using
cheap Chinese tires that were not rated for military vehicles, and in the muddy terrain the tires had failed. However, other vehicles showed sings of something even more shocking- they were equipped with tires over thirty years old and dating back to the USSR. But Russia wasn't just using cheap or ancient tires, they were failing at the most basic task of military vehicle maintenance. When kept in storage, vehicles are regularly started up and turned around- this prevents one side of the vehicle from being constantly exposed to the sun and thus prevents tire rot. Evidence shows that Russian vehicles were thrown into
motor pools and then just left there to bake in the sun for months, possibly even years on end. The tire controversy would have been deeply embarrassing for any professional military- but for Russia, it was just business as usual. You know you're a failed power when bad tires cause you to abandon a 10 million dollar air defense vehicle in perfect working order. That's ok though, it obviously wasn't doing the Russians much good anyways, so better to let the Ukrainians put it to good use. The absolute comedy of errors that was the Russian assault on Kyiv basically ended all credibility the Russian military had as the world's second most powerful army. At the heart of its failure
was a logistics system that has been bad since the days of the Soviet Union though. Most of you are probably familiar with the humble wooden pallet (use image blob:null/8cd51efc-474c-4a9c-b892-453d5b86b641). Pallets allow you to efficiently stack and transport goods, but the Russian military is not just at war with Ukraine, it's at war with efficiency. Thus while the entire modern world is using pallets and forklifts to quickly move goods around, Russia relies on the ancient technique of “loading a bunch of shit in your arms and moving it from place to place”. But logistics problems don't just stop there for Russia, because since the days of the Soviet Union, Russia has relied on rail transportation to move supplies from place to place. On the one hand, railroads are incredibly efficient ways to move lots of goods very quickly. On the other
hand, railroads are notoriously inefficient at going places were no railroads actually exist. Compared to their western counterparts, the Soviets- and now the Russians- have less than half the logistics personnel and trucks of a similar sized unit. Thus, when planning an offensive into NATO territory, the Soviets relied on capturing western locomotives, as their own locomotives couldn't operate on western gauge railroads. For any military geniuses in the audience, you've probably already spotted the flaw in that plan. Everyone else who's not a military genius or Soviet military planner has probably also spotted the flaw in the plan- NATO militaries being fully aware that Russian locomotives couldn't ride on western tracks would never allow their own locomotives to fall into Soviet hands.
Soviet idiocy aside, modern Russians at least enjoyed the benefit of Ukraine still using soviet-gauge railroad. However, the Ukrainians thought about that- which is why they blew up as much of their railroad as they could. The Russians, who apparently did not realize railroads weren't immune to explosions, were thus forced to use trucks to move supplies from safe bases in Belarus into Ukraine itself. Given that the Russian military lacks enough vehicles to fully resupply units, the further from safe logistics hubs Russian forces went during their travel towards Kyiv, the longer it took to deliver an already insufficient amount of supplies. The end result was a cascading state of fail that crippled any advance towards Kyiv, only made worse by the fact that Ukraine quickly changed its strategy from blowing up Russian armored vehicles to blowing up Russian trucks. Soon, the Russians were forced to press civilian vans and trucks into service- though it wouldn't be enough to save them.
But the Russian navy would soon do its best to catch up to the incredible amount of failure exhibited by the Russian army and air force. At first, things in the Black Sea were going pretty good for Russia. And then they weren't. The Moskva. Flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, a Slava class guided missile cruiser and one of the few parts of the Russian Navy considered a legitimate threat to NATO forces. Until suddenly it wasn't. On the 13th of April, the Moskva was sailing south of Odesa when it spotted a Bayraktar drone with its air defense radar. As the ship responsible for fleet air defense, this was of little surprise.
What was surprising was the two Neptune anti-ship missiles which slammed into the port side of the Moskva. 12 hours later, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet was now an artificial reef. Confusion reigns over the attack on the Moskva, with Ukraine and the United States both remaining tight lipped. What is known is that the US provided intelligence directly leading to the attack on the Moskva. What's not known is how the attack succeeded in the first place. As a fleet air defense vessel, the Moskva's primary purpose was to prevent such an attack from occuring in the first place. The ship was equipped with a tripe-layer air defense system that would have given it up to 4 minutes of warning of the incoming missiles. Claims that a Bayraktar drone had been used to distract the Moskva are invalid,
as the ship should have been easily capable of tracking multiple airborne targets. Since the sinking, a maintenance report from the Moskva has surfaced online, indicating that the ship was in dire need of repair. This report is unsubstantiated, though given what we've learned about the state of repair of Russian weapon systems, it's not impossible that the Moskva was simply in such bad shape that it couldn't even defend itself. Russian conscripts also made up a significant part of the Moskva crew, and its possible that poorly trained conscripts simply did not know how to respond to the situation. Other, wilder theories claim that NATO special forces attached limpet mines to the hull of the ship- but given how shy NATO has been about giving assistance to Ukraine, this is unlikely in the extreme.
The facts of the matter hint at a catastrophic flaw in Russian naval warships. Since the sinking of the Moskva, the entire Russian Black Sea fleet has not strayed far from safe harbor, in effect ceding the Black Sea to an enemy without a navy. As two Neptune anti-ship missiles should never have been able to cause catastrophic enough damage to sink a ship the size of the Moskva, it's strongly suspected that Russian ships suffer from a serious design flaw that makes them floating coffins. It would certainly explain why the Russian navy has been demoted to lobbing long range missiles from the safety of friendly waters.
From the Black Sea, we now go to the east of Ukraine- because if you thought Russian stupidity had reached its zenith north of Kyiv, you severely underestimate Russian stupidity. In the east of the country, Russia fared much better against Ukraine thanks to the fact that most of the east is relatively flat rolling plains. This is perfect for Russia's vast fleet of armored vehicles, which was one of its biggest advantages over Ukraine. However, Russia would very quickly do its best to level the playing field by what can only be described as industrial-grade, weaponized, concentrated stupid. Rivers are the only real natural obstacles in the east of Ukraine, and for a military force rivers are historically a difficult challenge. We're not here to trash Russia for having difficulty crossing a river, moving large amounts of armored vehicle and troops over deep water is a dicey proposition in the best of times- let alone when someone else is trying to kill you.
But Russia came up with a novel way of crossing the Dontets river- instead of using traditional pontoons, it apparently attempted to fill the river with armored vehicles so the rest of its army could just drive over them. At least that's the best explanation we have as to what occurred outside of Bilohorivka. After spotting a Russian bridging effort, Ukrainian forces allowed armored vehicles to cross before pounding it with artillery. The crossing was then repeated right next to the original crossing, which had been sighted in by Ukrainian artillery. To no one's surprise, this crossing was also pounded into oblivion. At this point, Russian forces retreated to rethink their plan to cross the Donets river. Just kidding, they tried it at least two more times in adjacent locations.
The attempt to cross the Donets river resulted in the estimated loss of two battalion tactical groups, and remains the deadliest engagement of the war for Russian forces. Even pro-Russian military bloggers would lash out at the Russian ministry of defense, with some calling it outright sabotage. Even internet tough guy and pro-Russian mil blogger Yuri Podolyaka commented that the disaster was due to the quote- stupidity of the Russian command”. However, the Russian aerospace forces will not tolerate any competition for the title of dumbest branch of the Russian military.
Russian military doctrine states that rotary aviation needs to be able to respond to requests for fire support within 15 minutes. This necessarily means that helicopters must be stationed closer to the front line than fixed wing aircraft. However, this very quickly breaks down into aggressive levels of stupidity, and nowhere was this on fuller display than in Chornobaivka. In total, Ukraine shelled the airfield at Chornobaivka an estimated thirty times, destroying and damaging dozens of Russian helicopters. After every single attack the Russian military simply... brought the helicopters back. The Russian attempt to defeat Ukrainian artillery shells with helicopters met with little success, and Ukrainian artillery won the day. It was in effect the most insane game of whack-a-mole,
only the mole absolutely refused to go down into its hole. But this war far from the Russian aerospace force’s greatest follies in the war. As Russia gradually realized that Ukraine wasn’t capitulating and, oh crap, it’s actually fighting back pretty effectively, it started throwing planes at the problem- and those planes were getting shot down. So Russia swapped to night operations and low flying. This was effective in
preventing both Ukrainian air defense batteries from engaging them and Ukrainian soldiers armed with MANPADS from spotting incoming attack jets. However, if you’re going to be running night operations, then you should probably have aircraft capable of doing so and pilots trained in them. You can already guess what’s coming next. Russia did not, in fact, have an air fleet capable of night operations. Only a small portion of its attack jets could carry out night attacks,
and significantly lacking in precision weapons, all its night campaign ended up doing is creating very large and expensive holes in Ukrainian fields. In about a week, Russia was back to day time operations- but this time from far behind friendly lines so as not to risk getting blown out of the sky by Ukrainian defenses. This has forced Russia to use up almost its entire stock of long-range attack weapons, including hypersonic weapons which in the words of one western analyst is quote- insanely disproportionate value for the cost. Especially when you consider most of these attacks were against civilian infrastructure and had no military value. The mystery of the missing Russian air force however is probably best solved by the simple fact that Russia is incompetent and can’t deconflict its own air space. Numerous very high profile incidents of friendly fire resulted
in Russian air defense units shooting down their own jets. In the initial stages of the invasion, this was especially problematic with the Russian ground forces doing more to defeat the Russian air forces than Ukraine. Since then, the situation hasn’t greatly improved, forcing Russia to use its air forces very sparingly and very carefully so as to avoid having them blown up by their own assets.
This is what happens when you don’t train your military properly, and when the exercises you do put on are highly scripted. For context, during Desert Storm allied forces had approximately 4,000 aircraft operating in Iraqi air space, and suffered only a handful of blue on blue incidents. Russia meanwhile is operating an estimated 350 aircraft across airspace twice the size of Iraq. To say Russia is utterly incompetent would be to call the ocean wet. Another one of Russia's biggest fails during its campaign in Ukraine is its inability to contend with modern weapon systems. When HIMARS arrived on the scene,
it had an outsized impact on the Russian military. Despite Ukraine having barely a dozen of the weapon system, HIMARS single-handedly changed the course of the war by destroying Russian command and control nodes and supply depots close to the front lines. Historically, Russia has waged wars against vastly inferior powers- so it can hardly be blamed for being surprised by the use of precision weapons. Except Russia has long droned on and on about how it was more than a match for NATO, which means it should've been ready for NATO weapons in Ukrainian hands. It was not. Instead,
the entire Russia military was put on its back foot by a tiny amount of NATO weapons. The precision HIMARS strikes forced Russia to retire many senior officers prematurely- by burying them in graves. It also forced them to move their supply depots even further back from the front lines. Remember earlier how we talked about terrible Russian logistics and their lack of trucks? Well, the same problem that appeared north of Kyiv once more reared its ugly head, as the pace of Russian resupply was slowed to a crawl. This effectively stopped the Russian offensive in the east of the country, and allowed Ukraine to begin to use its new NATO toys to shape the battlefield for a stunningly successful offensive to come. We're not going to talk much about the offensive, except to say this: Russia's 1st Guards Tank army, the very force which was meant to take on and defeat NATO's best defenses, got wrecked by a patchwork Ukrainian force equipped with Cold War era tanks. This was the nail in the
coffin for any pro-Russian bots claiming that Russia's setbacks were due to the fact that it was not committing its best forces, and holding them in reserve until Ukraine exhausted itself. By the culmination of the Ukrainian offensive, Russia should have been accustomed to the use of precision weapons. Apparently though, Russia learned nothing, because on New Years Eve one of the most explosive moments of the war- pun intended- rocked the entire nation of Russia.
Shortly after midnight HIMARS rockets rained down on a vocational school in Russian-controlled Makiivka in the Donetsk region. The school had been used as temporary barracks for over 500 fresh Russian conscripts. As if that wasn't bad enough, some genius Russian officer also decided to use the same building to house ammunition, because Russia really is its own worst enemy. The soldiers had been warned about using their cell phones, but naturally, ignored this order and had been sending text messages and phone calls home to wish happy new years to families and loved ones. Ukraine triangulated the electronic activity and sent its own warm wishes
to the tune of an estimated 400 dead, though to be fair this number would have been far lower if Russian leadership hadn't decided to stuff the basement full of high explosive ammunition. This would be a sign of things to come in the new year. As the temperature plummeted it soon became clear that Russia had not prepared for a winter campaign. Its feared winter offensive never materialized,
and its troops were documented begging on social media for basic supplies. The Russian mechanized forces became thinner and thinner on the ground, and eventually disappeared altogether leading to foot assaults against Ukrainian trenches in the style of World War 1- with similar results. The lack of Russian armored vehicles is best explained by disasters such as the infamous Battle of Vuhledar. In Chornobaivka the Russian military attempted to defeat Ukrainian artillery shells with parked helicopters. In Vuhledar, it was now time to defeat Ukrainian anti-tank missiles and mines with tanks. With the town heavily fortified and surrounded by mine fields,
the Russians were quick to discover several lanes clear of mines. To their credit, the Russians realized this was a trap, and attempted to use engineers to clear their own lanes through the mine fields. However, Ukrainian artillery quickly put a stop to that. Naturally, Russia simply yelled “YOLO” and poured its tanks and infantry into the very obviously trapped lanes free of mines. To the surprise of no one, not even the Russians, their advances into Vuhledar ran straight into Ukrainian ambushes. To the surprise of no one, especially the Russians, after several crushing defeats the Russians simply tried it again. And again. And again.
And again. And one more time after that and then a few more times after that one. We don't know how many losses Ukraine suffered, but we do know that Russia lost around 120 armored vehicles in what's become known as the biggest tank battle of the war. Except Russia was facing very few Ukrainian tanks, and mostly just running into mine fields, anti-tank infantry, and pre-sighted artillery. Finally, after completely exhausting their available armor, Russia retrated from Vuhledar.
The Russian commander in charge of the battle would be promoted for his glorious contribution to the motherland, because in Russia you don't fix stupid- you aggressively reinforce it. Now go check out Putin's New Major Problem For Russian Military, or click this other video instead!
2023-05-10 22:06
