AI Anticipation for Alexa, Nvidia Earnings Preview | Bloomberg Technology
>> FROM THE HEART OF WHERE INNOVATION, MONEY, AND POWER COLLIDE, IN SILICON VALLEY AND BEYOND, THIS IS "BLOOMBERG TECHNOLOGY," WITH CAROLINE HYDE AND ED LUDLOW. CAROLINE: LIVE FROM NEW YORK, I'M CAROLINE HYDE. JACKIE: I'M JACKIE DEVELOPS IN SAN FRANCISCO. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG TECHNOLOGY." CAROLINE: A GEN-AI-INFUSED ELECTRIC PLUS. IN THE TESLA FALLOUT CONTINUES. SHARES LOWER, ELON MUSK'S MANY DETRACTORS TAKING THEIR ANGER OUT ON THE CARMAKER. BUT FIRST, WE ARE CHECKING IN
ON THE MARKETS. THE POWER HIGHER. OH BY MORE THAN ONE PERCENTAGE POINT IN THE NASDAQ 100, AND THERE'S ONE KEY STUFF THAT DRIVES US HIGHER ON THE POINT PERSPECTIVE. IT IS NVIDIA. 4:20 P.M. NEW YORK TIME TODAY WHEN WE GET THE NUMBERS, UP 4.4% ON THE DAY, MANNING TO WIPE OUT YESTERDAY'S LOSS.
WE ANTICIPATE EARNINGS WILL MOVE UP TO A 73% INCREASE IN REVENUE, AND WHAT DO THEY NEED IN TERMS OF FORECASTS? BLOOMBERG GIVES HERE TO BREAK DOWN WHAT HAS BEEN A TORRID START OF THE YEAR FOR NVIDIA. THINK ABOUT THE SELLOFF WE GOT WHEN DEEPSEEK WAS FIRST UNVEILED, AND WE SORT OF THOUGHT, MAYBE WE DON'T NEED THESE CHIPS, BUT IT HAS MANAGED TO PUSH BACK SLIGHTLY. CARMEN: YEAH. WE ARE NOT ONLY COMING WITH THE DEEPSEEK SELECT, WE ARE DOWN WITH THE REPORT, SOMETHING IT NVIDIA HAS NOT SEEN SINCE 2022, AND WE ARE DOWN YEAR TO DATE, EVEN WITH TODAY'S GAMES CALLING BACK WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, NVIDIA IS STILL DOWN 2% ON THE YEAR. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, BUT THIS IS RARE GOING INTO AN NVIDIA EARNINGS REPORT, FOR THE MARKET OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS. THE MARKET IS ALWAYS HIGH FOR NVIDIA.
IT IS THE KEY IS STUCK ON THE S&P. IT IS THAT THE FACTOR WINNER ON THE AI TRADE. INVESTORS NEED TO SEE THE RIGHTS THAT THEY HAVE BECOME SO ACCUSTOMED TO. THE FORWARD GUIDANCE, WHAT THEY CAN SEE ABOUT THE FUTURE OF AI AND THE REVENUES THEY WILL BRING IN FROM THEIR LATEST CHIPS, FROM THE BLACKWELL, IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. JACKIE: CARMEN, ASIDE FROM THOSE FORECASTS, WHAT ELSE ARE INVESTORS REALLY EXPECTING WHEN IT RELATES TO COMMENTARY REGARDING DEEPSEEK? THE COMPANY REALLY ASSUAGED SOME OF THOSE CONCERNS RIGHT AFTER THE NEWS HIT IN JANUARY, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WHAT WE NEED TO HEAR COMING OUT OF THIS REPORT? CARMEN: I THINK THEY NEED TO HEAR MORE CONFIDENCE FROM NVIDIA THAT SALES ARE STILL GOOD, THAT PEOPLE NEED TO BE BITING THESE CHIPS, AND THAT EVERYTHING ABOUT AI, THE GROWTH STORY THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEE AND WILL CONTINUE. I WILL SAY ONE GOOD THING THAT SHOULD HOPEFULLY PLAY INTO THIS SUPPORT AND LEAD INTO THE GUIDE GOING FORWARD AS MANY OF THE BIG TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES THAT HAVE REPORTED SO FAR, INCLUDING THE HYPERSCALERS, SAID THEY WILL SPEND RECORD AMOUNT OF MONEY ON EXPENDITURES. SO BUILDING UP THE PLATFORM,
HARDWARE, SOFTWARE, ALL OF THOSE THINGS, NVIDIA IS STILL THE BIGGEST WINNER OF THAT MONEY. CAROLINE: TRADE RESTRICTIONS FOR ME, CARMEN. WE ARE QUESTIONING HOW MANY CAN GET INTO CHINA GOING FORWARD. THERE HAS BEEN A A LOT OF DEMAND FOR DEEPSEEK, BUT CANNOT CONTINUE? CARMEN: I DO THINK YOU ARE RIGHT, WHAT THEY SAY ABOUT THE FUTURE, HOW THEY ARE GOING TO GUIDE, IF THEY HAVE PLANS, YOU KNOW, TO WORK WITH THOSE RESTRICTIONS, HOW THEY WILL DEAL WITH THAT, IT WILL BE OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE TONIGHT. JACKIE: THAT IS BLOOMBERG'S CARMEN
REINICKE. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. WE WILL JOIN THIS CONVERSATION WITH KIM FORREST, CIO OF CAPITAL PARTNERS. WHEN IT COMES TO MODEL TRAINING, THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT NVIDIA HOLDS THE CROWN, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO INFERENCING, THEY HOLD LESS THAN HALF OF THAT BUSINESS, 40% OF THOSE GPU'S GO FOR THIS SPECIFIC PART OF TRAINING. HOW WOULD YOU SAY THAT RISKS STACKS UP IN COMPARED TO THE REST OF WHAT YOU ARE SEEING GOING INTO NVIDIA? KIM: WELL, IT IS ONE OF THE REALLY BIG RISKS, AND IT IS KIND OF DOWN FROM THE HEADLINE, AS YOU POINT OUT. THAT IS A GREAT POINT THAT NOT ALL CHIPS ARE USED IN THE SAME WAY, AND THEY ARE NOT USED IN THE SAME PROPORTION. SO WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
HERE IN BUILDING A MODEL VERSUS INFERENCES, THERE'S JUST DIFFERENT CHIPS MADE, YOU KNOW, YOU GET THE MODEL, AND THEN YOU ASK THE MORAL QUESTIONS. TWO DIFFERENT SETS OF THINKING CHIPS, RIGHT? SO HERE'S THE BIG PROBLEM, I THINK, IN THE PAST, OPENAI SPECIFICALLY HAS JUST BEEN THROWING MORE AND MORE HORSEPOWER AT BUILDING THIS BIG MODEL. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT IS NOT WORKING, BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT BEING ABLE TO PRODUCE THE NEW BIG MODELS ON A TIMELINE THAT THEY PUBLISH. SO THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG THERE. HERE'S THE PROBLEM THAT A LOT
OF THINKING INVESTORS HAVE WITH THIS COMPANY, IS IT REALLY GOING TO READ ALL OF THOSE CHIPS TO BUILD THESE BIG MODELS? I'M GUESSING NO. I MEAN, NOBODY REALLY WANTS TO, LIKE,, SERVER FARMS COVERING THE EARTH. NOBODY WANTS THAT EXPENSE. MAYBE THERE WILL BE NEW WAYS TO BUILD THE BIG MODEL WITHOUT USING, YOU KNOW, EVERY LAST ACRE OF FARMLAND FOR A DATA CENTER AND THUS BUYING EVERY CHIP THAT NVIDIA COULD MAKE. CAROLINE: I DO THINK JENSEN HUANG THUS FAR HAS DONE A GOOD JOB BY COMBATING THE NERVOUSNESS , INEFFICIENCY LEVELS FROM LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS. I THINK HE PUSH BACK AGAINST THE FACT THAT DEEPSEEK IS AN ISSUE, BECAUSE HE SAYS THEY ARE NEEDED FOR INFERENCE. WHAT MORE DO WE NEED TO HEAR FROM HIM? IS IT ACTUAL DATA, THAT PUTS BLACKWELL IN USERS' HANDS? ANALYSTS HAVE NOT CHANGE THEIR PERSPECTIVE ON HOW BIG OF A REVENUE WE WILL SEE FROM NVIDIA COME 2026. KIM: SURE.
2026 IS AN INTERESTING YEAR BUT NOT ALL THAT RELEVANT, RIGHT? EVERYBODY IN THE WORLD THAT USES THESE THINGS THAT ARE A PUBLIC COMPANY HAS ALREADY TOLD US THEY ARE GOING TO SPEND, YOU KNOW, ANYWHERE FROM $60 BILLION TO $80 BILLION. THAT IS MICROSOFT AND, YOU KNOW, ALL THE BIG MAGNIFICENT SEVEN USERS OF THIS. THAT'S NOT REALLY THE PROBLEM. WHAT WE ARE DOING IS WE ARE LOOKING AT 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, AND IS THE COMPANY GOING TO REALLY BE ABLE TO DOUBLE LIKE IT HAS IN THE PAST? THAT IS THE MOST AMAZING THING. IN A VERY SHORT TIME PERIOD, IT WENT FROM HAVING, LIKE, $20 BILLION IN SALES TO $60 BILLION IN SALES. THAT IS INCREDIBLE. YOU NEVER SEE THAT. AND THEY GOT REWARDED FOR THAT
IN ITS VALUATION. BUT LOOKING FORWARD, IS THAT REALLY THE CASE? AND I'M BETTING THE ANSWER IS NO, THAT IS NOT THE CASE. THEY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DOUBLE AGAIN. KIM:
TO YOUR POINT --JACKIE: TO YOUR POINT, KIM, DEMAND IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. WE'VE HEARD FROM TECH GIANTS THEY ARE BOOSTING THE SPIGOT AGAIN. CAN THE COMPANY HANDLE THAT CAPACITY? DO YOU HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER THEY CAN HANDLE THE SUPPLY, THIS DEMAND? KIM: CANNOT SUPPLY THE DEMAND? THAT IS REALLY TSMC, AND THEY ARE DOING A GOOD JOB, RIGHT? BUT, YOU KNOW, IT TAKES TIME TO BRING THESE EXTREMELY ADVANCED LINES ONLINE. AND THEY ARE JUST INCREDIBLY COMPLICATED. SECONDLY, ARE THE CHIPS WORKING? IN THE BEGINNING OF THE RELEASE, AS WE HEARD ABOUT SOME OVERSEAS PROBLEMS, AND THIS IS LEGENDARY IN THE WORLD OF CHIPS. THIS IS NOT A NEW THING.
INTEL HAD THIS PROBLEM, AMD, EVERYBODY GOES THROUGH THIS DISCOVERY WHENEVER YOU ARE CREATING THE HOT, FAST, NEW CHIP, THAT YOU GO, UH-OH, I FORGOT THIS LITTLE AREA THAT IS SEEING A PROBLEM. ALL OF THESE ARE LITTLE WORRIES THAT PEOPLE HAVE COME AND YES, JENSEN HUANG WILL -- WILL ADDRESS THESE, WITHOUT A DOUBT, BUT, YOU KNOW, THIS IS NOT SOFTWARE, THIS IS HARDWARE. THIS HAS TO WORK. IT JUST DOES. JACKIE: WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE THE COMPANY FROM A HARDWARE PERSPECTIVE? WE DO HAVE CHIPS EXPORTS, THIS TIT-FOR-TAT BETWEEN BEIJING AND WASHINGTON? KIM: WELL, HERE IS A CRAZY IDEA, AS I WAS LISTENING TO THE INTRO, WHAT IF CHINA STARTS BUILDING DATA CENTERS OVER HERE? WOULD WE SELL THE CHIPS TO THEM? WHERE WOULD BE THE PROBLEM? THERE ARE MANY WAYS YOU CAN GET AROUND THIS. LET'S SEE HOW THEY FIGHT. I THINK EVERYBODY IS THINKING OUT OF THE BOX AGAIN. CAROLINE: THE PRESIDENT CALLS HIMSELF THE DEALMAKER. WE WILL SEE IF HE WILL EVER
APPLY HIMSELF TO THAT KIND OF A DEAL WITH CHINA BUILDING HERE. CERTAINLY HAS PUSHED TIME WHEN TO BUILD MORE MANUFACTURING HERE IN THE -- TAIWANESE CHIPMAKERS TO BUILD MORE MANUFACTURING HERE IN THE UNITED STATES. IT IS IN LINE WITH NVIDIA? YOU SEEM TO LIKE OTHER CHIPMAKERS MORE, THIS VALUATION LEVEL CHIP. KIM: I DO. I THINK THEY ARE AN INCREDIBLE COMPANY, BUT THEY REALLY ONLY HAVE FOUR PRODUCT LINES, TWO WE DO NOT CARE ABOUT ANYMORE, GAME MACHINES AND, YOU KNOW, GRAPHIC TIPS FOR PC'S. WE DON'T CARE. THE THIRD ONE IS CRYPTO. WE KIND OF CARE ABOUT THIS, BUT
THE ONE THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING NVIDIA IS CERTAINLY A I, AND MY BET IS THEY ARE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO, IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, LIKE LET'S SAY 18 MONTHS, DOUBLE THE REVENUES AGAIN. THAT IS WHAT BROUGHT THEM HERE IS THE HUGE DEMAND AND THEIR ABILITY TO CREATE A PRODUCT THAT DEMAND. I'M UNSURE OF THE DEMAND PORTION GEETHA: NOT -- DEMAND PORTION, AGAIN, NOT THROUGH 2026, THE ABILITY TO MEET IT, AND WHETHER ALL OF THIS CAN'T CONTINUE TO WORK. IT IS A REALLY NARROW PATH THAT THEY ARE WALKING, AND BAD THINGS CAN HAPPEN. I LIKE TO LOOK AT OTHER AREAS, ESPECIALLY MEMORIES.
WE ARE CREATING SO MUCH DATA, IT HAS TO LIVE SOMEWHERE. AND I THINK THAT IS PRETTY MUCH AN OVERLOOKED AREA. CAROLINE: KIM FORREST, GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON, BOKEH CAPITAL PARTNERS. COMING UP, AMAZON SAYS IT IS
INVESTING MORE THAN ANY OTHER COMPANY IN AI. WE WILL FIND OUT AFTER THE BREAK. HERE WE COME. >> THIS IS THE NEXT GENERATION BY GENAI, SMARTER, CONVERSATIONAL, PERSONAL, AND GETS STUFF DONE. SHE'S EASY TO TALK TO. YOU CAN HAVE ALMOST ANY CONVERSATION, ALMOST ANY CONVERSATION. SHE'S SMARTER THAN SHE'S EVER BEEN BEFORE. CAROLINE:
THE VICE PRESIDENT OF QUANTUM SPEAKING ABOUT HIS UPDATED ALEXA ASSISTANTS. BACK IN 2023, WE FIRST HEARD ABOUT AI ALEXA, DOESN'T LIVE UP TO THE EXPECTATIONS, DO YOU THINK? -- DOES IT LIVE UP TO THE EXPECTATIONS? >> YEAH. THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION, BUT THE PROOF WILL BE IN THE PUDDING AS MORE PEOPLE TRY TO USE IT, AND IF THEY ACTUALLY BRING A DEEPER INTO THEIR LIVES, WHICH HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE FOR THE ALEXA VOICE ACTIVATED PLATFORMS TO REALLY GET BEYOND A KITCHEN TIMER, KIND OF LIKE A VOICE ACTIVATED CLOCK RADIO. JACKIE: SPENCER, WHAT IS THE UPSIDE TO THIS? THE AMBITIOUS VISION FOR WHERE ALEXA CAN GO? BECAUSE AS YOU MENTIONED, THEY HAVE TRIED TO INTEGRATE THIS INTO THINGS LIKE SHOPPING BY VOICE, WHICH KIND OF TURNED OUT TO BE A DUD. SPENCER: YEAH. I GUESS THE VISION IS TO MAKE THIS AN IRREPLACEABLE PIECE OF YOUR DAY TODAY LIFE, BUT IT IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THAT IS NECESSARY, IF A LOT OF THESE ARE SOLUTIONS LOOKING FOR PROBLEMS. THEY GAVE A PRESENTATION, AND THEY TALKED
ABOUT, LIKE, YOUR FAVORITE RESTAURANT, GETTING AN ALERT WHEN YOU NEED CONCERT TICKETS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THESE THINGS STAND OUT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS, A LOT OF TIMES, PEOPLE ARE WEARY OF TRUSTING CHATBOTS TO MAKE CRITICAL DECISIONS FOR THEM. THEY DON'T MIND GETTING PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS OR STUFF LIKE THAT, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO ACTUALLY EXECUTING A TRANSACTION, THEY PREFER TO DO THAT MANUALLY, DO THAT THEMSELVES.
SO THERE IS STILL A GAP BETWEEN WHAT THESE THINGS CAN DO AND WHAT PEOPLE WANT THEM TO DO. CAROLINE: SOMEONE REFERENCING WHY IT TOOK LONGER TO GET THIS INTO OUR HOUSE -- OUR HANDS, BUT WHEN YOU HAVE ONE SAYING IT IS INVESTING IN MORE AI THAN ANY OTHER COMPANY, THEY ARE INVESTED IN THIS PRODUCT. A SUPERMARKET FOR AI DEVICES AND ACCESS TO COMPUTE, RIGHT? SPENCER: YEAH. THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION OF DOES AMAZON ACTUALLY, THE CONSUMER FACING PRODUCT, THE BRAND PEOPLE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SERVICES, IS IT MORE OF THE BACKGROUND INFRASTRUCTURE. IT IS WELL-POSITIONED ON THE BACKGROUND INFRASTRUCTURE SIDE, THE DEVICES THAT YOU USE DAY-TO-DAY, YOU DON'T EVEN REALIZE AMAZON WEB SERVICES IS POWERING IN THE BACKGROUND.
BUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE CONSUMER FACING THAT PEOPLE USE DAY TODAY, ALEXA HAS BEEN FADING, AND NOW THEY ARE TRYING TO GET ALEXA BACK IN THE FOREFRONT. JACKIE: THAT IS BLOOMBERG'S SPENCER SOPER, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. COMING UP, INVESTORS ARE WARNING ABOUT QUANTUM COMPUTING AGAIN. WE SPEAK TO THE CEO OF QUANTUM MACHINES ABOUT HIS COMPANY'S LATEST ROUND, ONE OF THE BIGGEST IN THE SECTOR. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ CAROLINE: AI IN ACTION. WE TAKE A LOOK AT NVIDIA'S
DOMINANCE. DELL IS SEEING SHRINKING MARGINS, DESPITE A SALES SURGE. THEY SUPPLY SERVICE TO ELON MUSK'S XAI PRODUCT, HOORAY FOR PRODUCTS. YOU'VE DONE A REALLY GREAT DEEP DIVE IN ALL OF THESE NAMES THAT SEEMINGLY BENEFIT IN TERMS OF SALES, BUT MAYBE NOT IN TERMS OF PROFITABILITY. >> YEAH. THERE'S A WHOLE CATEGORY OF THESE COMPANIES THAT ARE SECOND QUARTER AI WINNERS.
YOU HAVE NVIDIA BUT ALSO DELL, HPE, THAT ARE SEEN AS A LITTLE SLEEPY, MAYBE A PREVIOUS GENERATION, BUT NOW BILLIONS IN SALES FROM AI SERVERS. WHAT WE HAVE FOUND IS THAT THESE DEALS ARE VERY DELUDED FOR MARGINS. THAT WAS KNOWN. BUT PART OF THAT IS NVIDIA EXERTS SO MUCH CONTROL OVER THE SALES PROCESS THAT IN PREVIOUS YEARS IT NEVER WOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO. JACKIE: BRODY, WHAT RECOURSE DO SOME OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE? YOU WROTE NVIDIA IS GETTING INTO SOME OF THESE SPACES WHERE THESE COMPANIES ARE TRYING TO TAP HIGHER MARGINS. WHERE CAN THEY GO IF IT IS NVIDIA WHO HOLDS ALL THE CARDS? BRODY: RIGHT NOW, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY COMPETITIVE MARKET. IF YOU ARE A SERVER MAKER, AND
A LOT OF COMPANIES CAN SELL HIGH-POWERED SERVERS, RIGHT? WE SEE DELL MAKING THIS GIANT 5 BILLION DALE -- $5 BILLION DEAL WITH ELON. A FIGURE I IMAGINE THEY WOULD NOT HAVE EXCEPTED IN A DIFFERENT, LESS COMPETITIVE MARKET. I WOULD SAY NVIDIA'S CONTROL IN THIS WAY LASTS UNTIL THE COMPANY, SAY, AMD, GETS THEIR ACT TOGETHER AND HAS A COMPETING PRODUCT, OR BEFORE CUSTOMERS BUYING AI CHIPS EXPANDS BEYOND THE KIND OF, YOU KNOW, 10 TO 20 LARGEST HYPERSCALERS OR AI-FORWARD COMPANIES. CAROLINE:
CAN WE FOCUS ON ONE CHIPMAKER, UP 20%, FINALLY THEY PUT IN FINANCIALS, SUPERMICRO, A BIG RELIEVER. BRODY: IT HAS BEEN A HUGE OVERHANG. IS IT GOING TO GET RELISTED THIS YEAR? A LOT OF INVESTORS WERE NOT SURE. LAST NIGHT, 30 MINUTES ON THE CLOCK, SUPERMICRO PUT THEM OUT. THE STOCK IS UP 20%. THERE ARE A LOT OF CAVEATS, SAYING WE ARE STILL FIXING THE PROPHECIES THAT LED US HERE, BUT FOR NOW, INVESTORS ARE SAYING THIS IS A GOOD DAY. JACKIE:
THAT IS BLOOMBERG'S BRODY FORD, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. NOW JUST ANNOUNCED, $170 MILLION FUNDING ROUND IN THE COMPANY CLOSING SOFTWARE BEST KNOWN FOR ITS TRACTION WITH PARTNERS LIKE NVIDIA. REDUCE ITS OWN ERRORS WHEN DOING QUANTUM RESEARCH. CO-FOUNDER AND CEO DR. ITAMAR SIVAN JOINS US NOW. DR. SIVAN, THIS IS A GREAT PARTNERSHIP YOU HAVE COME AND IT GOES TO SHOW THERE IS AN INTERSECTION HERE BETWEEN AI AND QUANTUM. WHAT IS THAT? DR. SIVAN: OF COURSE.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, QUANTUM COMPUTING IS THERE TO PROVIDE US WITH THE NEXT VERY BIG GROUP IN, RIGHT? COMPUTING POWER QUANTUM COMPUTERS --BIG GROUP IN COMPUTING POWER, RIGHT? QUANTUM. COMPUTERS WILL UNLEASH IN COMPUTING POWER WHAT WE HAVE HERE TODAY COMMANDED A COMPUTER THAT WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP BASED ON THE TECHNOLOGIES THAT WE HAVE TODAY. CAROLINE: LET'S JUST TALK ABOUT YOUR TECHNOLOGIES AND ULTIMATELY WHO YOU SERVE. YOU'VE GOT A MASSIVE FUNDING ROUND, AND MANY ARE SAYING IT'S BECAUSE YOU SERVE HALF OF ALL THE QUANTUM ECOSYSTEMS. HOW BIG IS THAT ECOSYSTEM, AND WHAT ARE YOU SERVING WITH? DR. SIVAN:
SO THIS ECOSYSTEM IS ACTUALLY QUITE BIG. IT INCLUDES MULTIPLE ORGANIZATIONS. SO FIRST OF ALL, THERE ARE THE HYPERSCALERS THAT YOU WERE JUST REFERRING TO IN OTHER CORPORATE ALL OVER THE WORLD THAT ARE ALREADY INVESTING BILLIONS IN CONSUMERS. FIRST OF ALL, BUILDING QUANTUM PROCESSES AND BUILDING QUANTUM COMPUTERS.
THEN YOU HAVE GOVERNMENT LABS. THEN YOU HAVE THE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGICAL RACE OF OUR GENERATION. GOVERNMENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN INVESTING IN THEM, THEREFORE THERE'S A LOT OF TRACTION, INTEREST, INVESTMENTS. CAROLINE: SORRY TO INTERRUPT HERE, BUT DR. SIVAN, IS THAT HUNDREDS OF
CLIENTS YOU HAVE OR TENS OF CLIENTS? CAN YOU GIVE US A SIZE HERE? DR. SIVAN: WE HAVE HUNDREDS OF CLIENTS, YES. JACKIE: DR. SIVAN, HOW MUCH BEFORE QUANTUM COMPUTING HAS ITS AI MOMENT? DR. SIVAN: YES, IT IS AN EXCELLENT QUESTION. BECAUSE MANY PEOPLE ASK US, WHEN WILL QUANTUM COMPUTERS BECOME USEFUL, RIGHT? BUT THE TRUE ANSWER IS QUANTUM COMPUTERS ARE ALREADY USEFUL, RIGHT? YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT NVIDIA EARLIER. YOU SEE A VERY BIG MARKET FOR
NVIDIA, IT HAS HAD SOME SECURITY AS WELL AS SCIENTIFIC. QUANTUM IS ALREADY WITHIN THESE CATEGORIES, LIKE WE ALREADY HAVE CUSTOMERS. THERE ARE ALREADY ORGANIZATIONS THAT BUY QUANTUM COMPUTERS AND USE THEM OVER THE CLOUD, RIGHT? THE THING IS THAT THE INDUSTRY WILL NEED MORE AND MORE COMPUTING POWER AS TIME GOES, RIGHT? SO THIS WILL BE GRADUAL, RIGHT? IT IS JUST UNIMAGINABLE, THE FUTURE FOR QUANTUM COMPUTERS. TO GET TO ITS FULL POTENTIAL, IT WILL TAKE MORE TIME. JACKIE: LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME OF THOSE CUSTOMERS WHERE YOU ARE SEEING THE MOST TRACTION AND PERHAPS THE SECTORS WHERE YOU EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THE DEMAND COMING IN IN THE SHORT TERM. DR. SIVAN: YES, SO I DID NOT MENTION SPECIFIC CUSTOMERS BY NAME FOR OBVIOUS REASONS, BUT QUANTUM MACHINES IS WORKING WITH ALL OF THE ORGANIZATIONS THAT ARE DEVELOPING QUANTUM COMPUTERS, INCLUDING SOME OF THE BIGGEST CORPORATE'S IN THE COMPUTING INDUSTRY. THEY ARE DEVELOPING THEIR OWN
QUANTUM COMPUTERS AND ALSO SETTING UP QUANTUM COMPUTERS ON THE CLOUD. MANY OF THEM ARE ALREADY CLIENTS OF OURS, AS WELL AS STARTUPS. STARTUPS ACTUALLY PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THIS INDUSTRY COME OF THIS EMERGING INDUSTRY. MANY OF OUR BIGGER CLIENTS ARE
STARTUPS, MOSTLY IN THE U.S. AND IN EUROPE, AND THEN AGAIN, GOVERNMENT LABS. GOVERNMENT LABS INVEST, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE BIGGEST COMPUTERS ON EARTH LIES WITHIN GOVERNMENT LABS, MOSTLY IN THE U.S. AND JAPAN, IN CHINA. AND THESE ORGANIZATIONS ARE ALREADY PURSUING QUANTUM AT SCALE. CAROLINE: WHAT DID YOU DO WITH YOUR $170
MILLION? WHERE DOES THAT GO FIRST? DR. SIVAN: FIRST AND FOREMOST, TECHNOLOGY. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE AT A VERY ADVANCED STAGE, QUANTUM HAS MADE TREMENDOUS PROGRESS. WE STILL HAVE A LOT TO DEVELOP. SO NOW WE ARE WITH QUANTUM COMPUTERS AT THE THOUSANDS OF BITS, AND QUANTUM MACHINES GEARING UP TO DEVELOP SYSTEMS FOR 20,000 BITS. THAT IS A LOT. CAROLINE: WE THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US, CO-FOUNDER AND CEO OF QUANTUM MACHINES LATEST FUND RAISE. INTO KEY NAMES ON THE BORING SIDE DRIVING IS HIGHER.
WE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AMAZON TODAY OUT WITH AN EVENT IN NEW YORK, FINALLY. $19 99 SINCE OVER WITH BRAM IN MARCH. UP 1.9 PERCENT. THE INVESTOR BASE LIKE THAT, EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE BEEN AT LEAST A YEAR DELAYED. ON NVIDIA CRESCENDOING. 4:20 P.M. NEW YORK TIME, CAN THEY PUSH BACK ON ANXIETY RELATED TO CAPACITY NEEDS, TRYING TO ACCESS, AND VALUATION? WE DIG IN WITH THE PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT JANUS HENDERSON. YOU OWNED THE STOCK.
WHAT DO YOU NEED TO HEAR FROM JENSEN TONIGHT? RICHARD: THAT IS KEY. HE WILL HAVE TO DO A LOT OF HANDHOLDING TO PLAY TO RISING DEBATES WE HAVE HAD IN THE MARKET FOR THE LAST EIGHT MONTHS. THE STOCK IS BASICALLY WHERE IT WAS JUNE OF LAST YEAR. WE WANT TO MAKE SURE SUPPLY ISSUES AROUND BLOCK WELL ARE EASING AND WE WILL GET AGGRESSIVE BACK HALF OF THIS YEAR AND A AROUND THE SCALE OF AI TODAY AND THE MONETIZATION, THE ROI THAT THE CAPEX SPENDING CAN CONTINUED NOT ONLY THIS YEAR, BUT NEXT YEAR, AND BEYOND. CAROLINE: ARE YOU MORE CONCERNED ABOUT DEMAND? MANY WERE VINDICATED HYPER-SKILL DEMAND LIVES ON IF YOU LOOK AT THEIR NUMBERS OR CAPACITY AT THE MOMENT. THE SUPPLY SIDE WITH BLACKWELL AND WHETHER THEY CONTINUE TO ACCESS CHINA WITH AH20S. RICHARD:
DEMAND SIDE WE FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE. WE KNOW IT IS A SUPPLY ISSUE. THE DEBATE IS LONG-TERM. ALL OF THE CONCERNS THAT CAME OUT OF DEEPSEEK THAT WE NEED A LOT LESS CAPITAL SPENDING ON TRAINING IN PARTICULAR. WE HAVE SEEN THE CLASSIC PARADOX.
I HOPE EVERYBODY GETS A DOLLAR FOR EVERY TIME WE TAKE WILLIAM DEVON'S NAME. WE ARE SEEING INCREMENTAL DEMAND EVEN FROM CHINA. ALIBABA WILL SPEND IN THE NEXT THREE YEARS AS MUCH AS THEY DID UNDER THE LAST 10. WILL THERE BE FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ON U.S. EXPORTS OF CHIPS, AI CHIPS, INTO CHINA? WHAT LEVELS OF GROWTH ARE REASONABLE TO THINK ABOUT FOR THE COMPANY IN YEARS TO COME? CAROLINE: THERE WAS A TD CARE ONE REPORT EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT SHOWED MICROSOFT MIGHT BE PULLING BACK ON SOME OF ITS DATA CENTER LEASES. IS THIS A SHORT-TERM BLIP OR ARE YOU MORE CONCERNED ABOUT DEEPER WARNING SIGNS THERE? RICHARD: I THINK THAT WAS MISCONSTRUED.
MICROSOFT HAS BEEN VERY SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS. WE ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE TAKING UP A HUGE AMOUNT OF LEASING AND DATA CENTER CAPACITY WHICH THEY ARE NOW OPTIMIZING. THE OTHER FACTOR WAS OBVIOUSLY, WE SAW THE NEWS AROUND WHAT WAS HAPPENING WITH PROJECT STARGATE, THE REIMAGINING OF THE TERMS BETWEEN ORACLE, OPENAI, AND MICROSOFT WERE A LOT OF THE TRAINING CAPACITY WILL BE BILLED FOR OPENAI BY ORACLE, NOT MICROSOFT. IN OUR MINDS THIS IS A REIMAGINING OF THE TRAJECTORIES OF WORK CAPITAL SPENDING NEEDS TO GO. >> LET'S TALK REASONING. ANTHROPIC RELEASED ITS
REASONING MODEL YESTERDAY. A SLEW OF OTHER COMPANIES HAVE BEEN DOING THE SAME PETER THEY RELY ON REASONING -- INFERENCING. HOW MUCH OF NVIDIA GROWTH GOING FORWARD WILL COME FROM INFERENCING VERSUS GPUS THAT TRAIN? RICHARD: MOST PEOPLE WOULD EXPECT THE MARKET TO BE LARGER THAN TRAINING. WE NEED A RETURN ON THE SPENDING OF ALL -- ON ALL THE TRAINING CAPEX WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE YEARS AND THAT WILL COME FROM US USING MORE AI PRODUCTS THE NEXT COUPLE YEARS REQUIRING A SIGNIFICANT STEP UP IN INFERENCING.
MICROSOFT IS MORE FOCUSED ON WANTING TO DO INFERENCING CAPACITY AND ORACLE IS MORE WILLING TO INVEST IN TRAINING. BUT WE NEED BOTH. AS WE LOOK AT THE NEXT FEW YEARS WE ARE MORE EXCITED ABOUT THE INFERENCING GROWTH AND CAPACITY RAMP UP IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS.
AS HOPEFULLY, WE ALL START USING THESE SERVICES. CAROLINE: WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THE FRENEMY DISCUSSION AROUND THIS INDUSTRY. AMAZON SAYING THEY ARE THE BIGGEST SPENDER ON AI. AND PART OF THAT IS THEIR OWN SHIP CAPACITY THAT THEY ARE MAKING INTERNALLY. HOW MUCH AS A COMPETITIVE THREAT IS THAT ULTIMATELY FOR THE LIKES OF NVIDIA? RICHARD: THERE ARE A COUPLE ELEMENTS THERE. ONE, IT TAKES ABOUT THREE YEARS TO DESIGN A CHIP. IF YOU ARE TWO YEARS AND A BIT
AFTER THE LOSS OF CHATGPT, TO HAVE CHIPS DESIGNED IN A POST CHATGPT WORLD WE WILL SEE THEM LATER THIS YEAR WITH THE NEW MICROSOFT CHECK LATER THIS YEAR AND CHIPS FROM META AND OPENAI COMING. WE WILL SEE THE FULL SPECTRUM OF WHAT HYPER SCALARS ARE ABLE TO DESIGN THE NEXT WHILE HAVING 24 MONTHS AND IT WILL BE MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE WITH NVIDIA. WE THINK THE COMPETITIVE INTENSITY IS MORE ON THE INFERENCE SIDE THAN TRAINING. NVIDIA HAS HUGE ADVANTAGES WITH GPU, SOFTWARE THAT IT CAN BRING TO BEAR WITH BLACKWELL AND INTO RUBEN. WE THINK THEY HAVE STRONG POSITIONING THERE.
INFERENCING WILL ACTUALLY BE MORE ABOUT THE COST OF OWNERSHIP, REDUCING POWER, AND RELIANCE ON A COMPANY LIKE NVIDIA THAT IS IN THE STRATEGIC MINDSET OF THE TYPIST -- HYPERSCALERS. CAROLINE: AMAZON AND WHAT IT PROVIDES. CONSUMER AI. GENERATIVE AI INFUSED INTO ALEXA PLUS TODAY. WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF THAT ANNOUNCEMENT? RICHARD: WHEN WE THINK ABOUT TRAINING PROPRIETARY LIVES LANGUAGE MODELS, DEEPSEEK SHOWED US HOW FAR FORWARD OPEN SOURCE MODELS HAVE COME. IF YOUR BUSINESS MODEL IS TO
TRY TO MONETIZE A PROPRIETARY MODEL THAT MIGHT BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN SOMEONE ELSE'S PROPRIETARY OPEN-SOURCE MODEL, THAT WILL BE A TOUGH GAME TO PLAY. SO COMPANIES THAT CAN TAKE GENERATIVE AI ADVANCEMENTS AND MONETIZE THEM BY HAVING DISTRIBUTION TO BILLIONS OF USERS ARE VERY STRONG ECOSYSTEM THEY CAN -- OR A STRONG ECOSYSTEM THEY CAN ROW PRODUCT AND SERVICES INTO, FORET IT IS A NATURAL WAY TO MONETIZE THE TECHNOLOGY. ALEXA, A WHOLE HOST OF WAYS AMAZON CAN MONETIZE THAT ON THE CONSUMER AND CLOUD SIDE, WE THINK THAT IS AN INTERESTING COMPANY IN AN AI WORLD.
>> ZOOMING OUT TO WASHINGTON, WHAT KIND OF ASSURANCE DO YOU NEED FROM NVIDIA TODAY TO MAKE SURE THE COMPANY IS NOT CAUGHT IN THE CROSS HAIRS BETWEEN BEIJING AND WASHINGTON? RICHARD: WE HAVE BEEN DEALING BACKED -- WITH THAT FOR QUITE A FEW YEARS AND I THINK THAT TIM COOK COULD HAVE A ROLE AT THE UNITED NATIONS FOR APPLE IN YEARS TO COME. WE KNOW THAT AI IS THE FRONT LINE OF THE SUPREMACY BATTLE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONGOING RESTRICTIONS AROUND THAT.
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER MOVES MADE TO RESTRICT CHINA'S ACCESS TO THIS TECHNOLOGY AND THEY WILL MAKE THEIR OWN MOVES TO LOCALIZE THAT. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A MAJOR IMPACT TO THAT BUSINESS AND THE CHINA SALES OF THAT COMPANY AS WELL AS MANY OTHERS. WE EXPECT MORE TO COME. THAT IS WHERE, AS ACTIVE MANAGERS, WE CAN HELP NAVIGATE THAT BY TALKING TO PEOPLE IN WASHINGTON AND GETTING A SENSE OF WHERE THIS MIGHT END UP IN TERMS OF RISK AND OPPORTUNITY.
CAROLINE: AS ACTIVE MANAGERS YOU HAVE TO NAVIGATE VOLATILITY PRESENT IN THEIR STOCK. WHERE DO YOU THINK YOU ARE LONG-TERM SEEING QUESTIONS AROUND THE LONGEVITY OF THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY SIDE? RICHARD: THAT'S WHERE OWNING A STOCK IS VERY DIFFERENT THAN BEING A TECHNOLOGIST. WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE MARKET OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS? ARE THERE REASONABLE? -- ARE THEY REASONABLE? IS THE PRICE PAID FOR THAT EARNING POWER REASONABLE? IT IS NOT JUST THE FRANCHISE OF NVIDIA, BUT IS THE MARKET BEING REASONABLE PRICING THAT OPPORTUNITY INTO THE STOCK TODAY? THAT IS WHERE COST OF CAPITAL IS ACTUALLY GOOD. WE HAVE SEEN MORE RATIONALITY AROUND NVIDIA AND MANY OTHER STOCKS RELATED TO THIS OPPORTUNITY, VERY DIFFERENT FROM 2020 AND ALSO WHY THE STOCK HAS BEEN IN DIGESTION MODE SINCE JUNE OF LAST YEAR. AND AS WE START ROLLING FORWARD
INTO BLACKWELL AND GPC NEXT MONTH WHEN THEY TALK ABOUT THE LONGER TERM ROADMAP AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TECHNOLOGY IT WILL GIVE US A MUCH BETTER SENSE AS TO WHERE, FROM HERE, THE STOCK CAN GO. >> RICHARD CLODE FROM JANUS HENDERSON, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. TESLA PROTESTERS AND VANDALS TARGETING THE COMPANY'S STORES FOLLOWING ELON MUSK'S POLARIZING BEHAVIOR. CRAIG, THIS WAS AN INCREDIBLE STORY THAT LOOKS AT THE CORRELATION BETWEEN WHERE TESLA IS SEEING LACKLUSTER SALES AND WERE ELON MUSK HAS BEEN INSERTING HIMSELF IN POLITICS. WHAT EXAMPLES DID YOU FIND?
CRAIG: THERE IS ABSOLUTE CORRELATION HERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE CAUSATION. IT WILL TAKE US TIME TO SORT THROUGH. WE ARE SEEING, AS YOU MENTIONED, PROTESTS. WE ARE SEEING POLLS IN COUNTRIES THAT HAVE A LOT OF EV DEMAND WERE ELON MUSK ISN'T DOING WELL AND THE TESLA BRAND IS ALSO NOT DOING WELL. WHEN PEOPLE THINK OF ELON MUSK, THEY THINK OF TESLA BEFORE VIRTUALLY ANYTHING ELSE. THIS IS A CASE NOT NECESSARILY
OF JUST POLITICS FOR POLITICS' SAKE. WHEN YOU THINK OF WHAT TESLA IS ABOUT, AND WHAT THEIR VALUES ARE , SOME OF THE PARTIES ELON MUSK IS ALIGNING HIMSELF WITH ARE VERY CONTRARY TO THAT. ABOUT TRUMP'S ATTACKS ON EV'S. -- THINK ABOUT TRUMP'S ATTACKS ON EV'S ARE THEY GOING AFTER EV CHARGERS AT FEDERAL BUILDINGS FOR SEEMINGLY NO REASON OTHER THAN TO STICK IT IN THE EYE OF EV'S. THIS IS A CASE WHERE HE IS GOING AGAINST HIS OWN CONSUMER BASE. CAROLINE: WE EXPECT THEM TO JOIN A CABINET MEETING TODAY WHERE WE WILL PERHAPS HEAR MORE OF A POLITICAL ALIGNING AT THE MOMENT BETWEEN DONALD TRUMP AND ELON MUSK. CRAIG:
IN YOUR STORY YOU HELPED EDIT IT SAID "I DO NOT KNOW IF THERE HAS EVER BEEN A GREATER DESCRIPTION OF BRAND EQUITY." WHERE IN PARTICULAR IS THIS OCCURRING? CRAIG: YOU ARE SAYING PROTESTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND ALSO, AS WAS MENTIONED EARLIER, JACKIE MENTIONED, VANDALISM. WE HAVE SEEN STORIES DAMAGED ALL OVER THE U.S.. IN SOME POCKETS COME OVER HERE IN EUROPE. WE HAVE SEEN A STUNT WHERE ACTIVISTS PROJECTED FOOTAGE OF ELON MUSK AT AN INAUGURATION EVENT FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP ONTO THE TESLA FACTORY IN GERMANY. WE ARE SEEN, ALSO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA EVEN, BILLBOARDS HERE IN LONDON ATTACKING MUSK AND TESLA. IF THIS IS PRETTY WIDESPREAD.
I THINK IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET A SENSE OF JUST HOW MUCH THIS IS REALLY HITTING TESLA SALES BECAUSE I THINK THERE ARE OTHER THINGS AT PLAY HERE. OF COURSE, THE MODEL Y IS ON THE MET -- IN THE MIDST OF BEING UPDATED AND THE PLANS NEED TIME TO CHANGE TO THE NEW DESIGN. SO, THE COMPANY WILL GET SOME LIFT FOR THAT. THE QUESTION IS, WILL CONSUMERS BE INTERESTED IN THAT VEHICLE ONCE THESE CHANGEOVERS AT THE FACTORY TAKE PLACE? >> WHAT DO INVESTORS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT THIS? LOOK AT SOME OF THE COMMENTS YOU QUOTED IN THE STORY AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THEM ARE COMING AROUND TO THE FACT THAT WE AREN'T LOVING WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE COMPANY'S BUSINESS.
ELON IS GROWING POLITICAL EXTRACURRICULARS, IF YOU WILL. CRAIG: GREAT QUESTION. WE DO HAVE A QUOTE FROM A MAJOR INVESTOR IN TODAY'S STORY. I WOULD SAY, WE SHOULD ACKNOWLEDGE THAT INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS HAVE NOT SAID A LOT OR SPOKEN UP A LOT ABOUT ELON MUSK'S POLITICS. I THINK THAT IS >> SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. WHETHER THAT CHANGES, IT WOULD BE ONE THING IF A CEO WAS ALIGNING WITH TRUMP IN WAYS THAT WERE MORE CONSISTENT WITH OTHER CEOS. THIS IS REALLY EMPHATIC.
2025-02-28 05:32
