Вступит ли Беларусь в войну с Украиной? | Лукашенко и его мотивы (English subtitles) / @Максим Кац
The third important news after massive shellings of the Ukrainian cities and “the second wave” of mobilization is the potential joining of Belarus to the war. Today Belarus is the only ally of Russia which at least can be called this way. It doesn’t participate in the war on the side of Russia but at least it gives its territory, and now – machinery to continue the war, Putin doesn’t have any better allies than the country which is 15 times smaller and with an even more destructive regime, so, any Lukashenko’s statement draws attention. Now, we are not in the place where we can say something for sure. We are in the world of probabilities. And this video is about the probability of Belarusian military intervention in Ukrainian territory which is low rather than high.
For the last several days Alexander Lukashenko’s behavior has been quite disturbing. On October 7 he met Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg where he complained on the threat on the Western border and agreed on creation of the united troops of the Allied state. Since the next day Lukashenko and the Belarusian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, military people, intelligence and propaganda have started shouting that Ukraine is collecting troops near the border with Belarus, getting ready for terror acts on the Belarus territory and planning to seize Belarusian cities. The creation of the allied troops is supposed to prevent the West from involving Belarus in the conflict . Listening to that fake information, political and military power of North Atlantic Alliance and some European countries openly consider probable aggression against our country, including a nuclear attack. We know this story very well. Similar accusations towards Ukraine together with the threats and the denial of their own aggressive intentions we’ve heard from the Russian government seven and a half months ago.
So, many people think that Lukashenko is trying to find a formal reason to join the war. There are other disturbing signs too. The day before yesterday Belarus reduced the list of acceptable reasons for conscription delays, also, the law was approved that KGB can forbid a person to leave the country if it contradicts national security. It looks like a symptom of mobilization. Meanwhile, Ukraine does nothing which can be considered as preparation for the attack.
On the contrary, the Ukrainian army is anxious about the attack from the North, so they plant mines in the railways and highways and blow the bridges up. Obviously, it is done to prevent the attack from both sides. Vladimir Zelensky has also urged G7 countries to place international observers on the border. The Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has denied this option saying that third party peacemakers will mean direct involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. LUKASHENKO’S MANEUVERS It isn’t the first time when Lukashenko threatens Ukraine with joining the war. Since April he has been arranging training near the border making the Ukrainian army take some soldiers from the active directions, however, in general, after the first days of war when the possibility to take Kyiv easily evaporated, Lukashenko has refused from direct participation in military actions, and now, when the Russian army is being humiliated again and again, when it became obvious that he can’t join Russia in its great victory, Lukashenko is making a fuss. The thing is that after the defeat during the election, the main support of Alexander Lukashenko is not his legitimacy, or public support, but Vladimir Putin himself.
So, it means that he has to obey his wishes. Because the most horrible regime in Europe, if we talk about the internal situation, exists just because it parasitizes on the neighboring autocratic regime. Lukashenko himself depends on Putin politically, the Belarusian economy – financially. Putin supports Lukashenko, Putin gives money to Lukashenko. It’s a fact. In order to preserve his own power, Lukashenko became so dependent on Putin that he gave Putin Belarusian territories as a platform for intruding into Ukraine, today, when the Russian army has lost and given too many armored vehicles to Ukraine, Lukashenko has to give his own tanks to Russia. It might look logical that dependent Lukashenko must send the Belarusian army to Ukraine because he has nothing to lose. But it’s not like that at all.
Now, an ad. We’ll continue soon. ADS Let’s continue. Lukashenko is not Putin’s ally. Lukashenko is a parasite who discovered an effective strategy to survive. So that the master couldn’t get rid of him, the master should believe that he can get something from the parasite in future. It means that Lukashenko must always have something in his pocket he can make a deal on, something valuable.
In peaceful times it was clear what exactly Lukashenko was selling – he sold Belarusian sovereignty. “The allied government” with Parliament, President and power institutions existed just on paper for 22 years. Each time when the internal economic and political situation got out of hand, Lukashenko went to Yeltsin, Putin, Medvedev and again to Putin to talk about deeper integration, and each time getting new credit and forgiveness for his old debts he became the defender of sovereignty and independence of Belarus again. Now, it’s not the case.
What kind of a land master are you if foreign troops use your territory, your airfields and machinery to attack your neighbor? Now, you have just one thing you can sell – your full participation in the war. WHAT ARE THE RISKS FOR THE BELASRUSIAN DICTATOR? What will it mean for Lukashenko to join the war? First, he will get the same sanctions as Russia, but the damage will be greater, belarus is a small economy, it’s less than 70 billion per year, it’s 20 times less than Russia. To punish it severely and introduce a strict embargo for any cooperation will be economically safe and politically convenient for Europe and the US. Second, all those problems which are left from the revolutionary
2020 will be back again. We’ve already said it – the Belarusian regime is like the Russian regime, the further – the greater. But still, Belarus is not Russia. Belarus is 10 millions of monoethnic and monocultural population. It’s one of the most urbanized countries in Europe. Lukashenko has no Tuva, or Dagestan and Buryatia, no forgotten corners where he can get people without any damage for his regime. All Belarus will know immediately about any people's losses.
Those people who said it quite clearly two and a half years ago that they didn’t want their old President. Third, Lukashenko’s forces aren’t significant compared to Putin’s. In case of a frontal war, the Belarusian army will be destroyed quite soon, it will have no effect on the general course of military actions. What will happen in reality is that Lukashenko’s regime will lose its army.
And finally, Lukashenko is not sure at all that the army is loyal to him. We saw a lot in 2020, we saw complete inhumanity, but what we didn’t see is that the army was involved in suppressing the protests. Police – yes, SWAT – of course, internal troops were used to some extent. But the army – no. It didn’t look like Lukashenko thought the army supported his regime. In reality, during the war we are coming back to the same status we had in peaceful times. Lukashenko is selling something he can’t give.
Without Belarus as a sovereign country he would mean nothing to the Kremlin masters. You can sell such an asset just once, after joining the war Lukashenko will share all Putin’s risks and get his own risks and will get the same result – he will lose the thing to sell, for now, even from his fantastically vulnerable and dependent position Lukashenko manages to get momentary benefits. Belarus became one of the main hubs for emigration from Russia, the citizens of Russia open still-working Visa and MasterCards in Belarusian banks. Smuggling through Belarus is still an option because Belarus did not get all the sanctions Russia got. There is no doubt that if Putin’s war followed his initial scenario, Lukashenko would join it very soon.
Not immediately though – he is too sly and careful for that. He would be happy to participate in something victorious. Just imagine – Lukashenko with his shoulder straps with the Belarusian coat of arms is receiving a parade on Kreschatik together with Putin and Shoigu. Military victory, strengthening of legitimacy, “Allied decisiveness” indeed (the motto they chose for the training). But joining the war now is not participating in something victorious, it's a huge risk for the sake of Putin.
But it’s Putin’s responsibility to save Lukashenko, not vice versa. Moreover, it’s quite obvious that no military help from Belarus would ever help Putin. Now, the matter of losing is a matter of time. WILL HE PARTICIPATE OR NOT? I would hate to give you any prognosis, today everything is possible, but if you want to assess the possibility of Belarus joining the war, you should ask yourself – why hasn’t he joined it yet? He didn't join it when the Russian troops were in the suburbs of Kyiv, when they took city after city, when the situation on the front was just about losses and retreat. He didn’t join it when there was a trench war,
the situation we had by summer. All that time Lukashenko was an unfulfilled threat. And of course, he played his own important role in this war. Not just as a platform for attacks and shellings but as a force which prevents the Ukrainian government from forgetting about the threat to Kyiv and taking all the troops to Donbas and Kherson leaving Kyiv without any protection. Putin needs this threat ideologically. Russia will have an ally in this war. You can sell it to the internal audience as a new step in escalation.
Missile attacks, mobilization and joining of Belarus – Telegram-channels should like it and compensate for the defeats on the front. On the other hand, it has never happened that Putin solved his internal problems with Lukashenko’s help, it has been vice versa forever, there’s no doubt Lukashenko doesn’t care about his citizens or soldiers. We know this man pretty well to hope that he will tremble if the territory of Belarus becomes a legitimate military aim.
But we know it for sure that Lukashenko cares about himself. We know for sure that he cares about his life even better than Putin about his own. And of course, he cares about Putin until Putin is the only support of his power. We know for sure that unlike Putin, Lukashenko doesn’t live in the world of ideological fantasies. He is very rational when it comes to keeping his power.
He will bury his own country without hesitation if he gets all the power, joining the war at this stage doesn’t help to keep power, it can just weaken his power, in February it was Putin who could enjoy the illusion that the Ukrainian army was a joke, that there’s no such thing as the Ukrainian government and that Kyiv would be taken in 3 days. Lukashenko, however, saw what we saw. He couldn’t have those illusions. If the Belarusian army joins the war, it would mean nothing else than death and the status of the country at war with all the consequences.
Both results make the end of the regime closer, we can’t exclude anything, and the most extreme variants too, for example, if Putin gives Lukashenko an ultimatum – either you participate in it, or lose the power. Or we will imprison you in Moscow! But if we don’t consider such scenarios, the probability of the Belarusian participation seems to be quite low. CONCLUSION In the end of today’s video a small message for my Belarusian audience. At least 200,000 viewers from Belarus will watch this video.
It means that among the viewers there will be half of the management of the Belarusian army (or the whole management) and the half of the army too through one handshake. Surely, relatives of the soldiers will watch me too. If Belarus joins this war, it will be suicidal. The army will be totally killed. If you want to explain the situation better, please watch the message from Lieutenant Colonel of Airborne troops Valeriy Sakhaschik and show it to your military friends. Till tomorrow! Dear Belarusians and everyone who can hear me! It's been 8 months since we've been witnessing and participating in a horrible and bloody absurd theater no reasonable man could believe in a year ago.
To any sensible person it's clear that Russia has lost this war. Having great resources, it can postpone its agony but it will make the end even more terrible. No one will ever forgive the agressor killed and disabled lives of civilians, children, women and senior people. Warriors will never live peacefully until they take revenge for every killed friend, destroyed house and piece of infrastructure, they will have to rebuild it and every new day of war will make the consequences even more terrible and severe for the agressor.
For many people in the world it became a surprise how well the Ukrainians got united and their readiness for self-sacrifice in a tremendously difficult situation, dozens of thousand of Ukrainians left their calm life in Europe for the fight, and it was the time when the enemy was in the suburbs of Kyiv. Now, the Ukrainians felt they are stronger and they will chase the agressor away from their land like a wounded animal. Trying to find a solution, the Russian government, which has no connection to the reality, want to use Belarus as their last chance. What will await us if they manage to do it? In this regard I can be an expert as soon as I've spent a lot of time in Ukraine since February having vast connections there. During the first days Moser oil-processing plant will be destroyed. And most of other big objects near the border,
as well as all the critical infrastructure, we should understand that lots of people can be killed and wounded, the Belarusian armed forces will lose most of the officers as it was with the Russians because Belarusian communication equipment is even more obsolete than the Russian one. The whole management system will be uncovered and destroyed. And the attitude towards the Belarusians will be even more severe than towards the Russians. It's not a surprise about the Russians, but the Belarusians were a sister nation and a good neighbor until recently. And a stab in the back will cause terrible reaction. The Ukrainians are very well prepared for the attack.
Belarus will undoubtedly have great losses. Are the Belarusians ready to get hundreds and thousands of its sons in black plastic bags? This aggression will activate the Belarusian Patriots who are ready to fight for honest name and international reputation of the Belarusians, the number of Belarusian volunteers in the Ukrainian army will increase. Belarusian soldiers will be met by Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine but better trained, equipped, and motivated. Belarus will become a pariah and will share the shame with Russia and will pay reparations for many years. The armed forces of Ukraine is undoubtedly the army No.1 in Europe with the support of the whole civilized world. They will manage the attack from the North but there will be no restraining factors preventing them from using the most modern weapons against any objects used by the aggressor in Belarus.
All the wars end one day, this war will end even faster than some people think. And when it ends, the epoch and the lifestyle we got used to for several decades will change. The lies of propaganda, manipulations with facts and substitution of concepts will stop working. White will become white again. And good will be good. Think about this near future. Whom will you be in it? Respected society members or the International Tribunal criminals? Belarus needs us in its future.
Don't spoil your future until it's too late. Let's think about it. People in military and political management of Belarus, the future of our country depends on you. For many years the system has forgiven your mistakes and let you make experiments which resulted just in technological, lifestyle and civil rights regress. It has happened gradually, and not everyone could assess the results. The price for the mistake in the question of participating in the war is fatally high. Its destructive consequences will emerge in weeks and it will be impossible to change anything.
Aren't you scared that your own children and grandchildren will curse you? And many Belarusians will never have children. And the main question is "What is it for"? Ukraine has never threatened to Belarus and there's no threat now. For now, Ukraine is very patient and they haven't attacked us back for the missiles and UAVs flying from the territory of Belarus. Though they have all the potential to respond. I think it's the greatest wisdom of the Ukrainian people who consider their
moves in advance because civilians will be killed and wounded first. Such response will break our nations up for decades. You'll say that Belarus is too dependent from Russia and can't refuse to participate. This means absolutely nothing. The Belarusians are an extremely clever, hard-working and active nation. People just need freedom to show their talents. And some years later we will become a self-sufficient and successful European country. I know what I'm talking about because I'm honored to manage a big team of Belarusians working in several European countries. I'm asking you to realize the seriousness of this situation and possible horrible
consequences. Each of us (maybe to different extent) can influence the future of Belarus. If we let the war in our land, it will affect everyone. Dear fellow citizens, please be reasonable and realize the responsibility for the future of our children.