Looking at China from the forefront of politics and economics, I am Cheng Xiaonong . We know that since 2023, the relationship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and the issue surrounding the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan have attracted a lot of attention from all over the world. Taiwan is constantly using military planes to harass , and warships have also sailed to the east coast of Taiwan . On the other hand , the CCP is also strengthening efforts in this area of peaceful reunification. Many people in Taiwan are also worried that if a conflict breaks out , the situation will not know what will happen. Well, today I think we are honored to invite Andrew J. Nathan, a professor of East Asian politics from the famous Columbia University . His Chinese name is Li Anyou. There are many students of him in Taiwan. There are many students in Taiwan , and there are many students in China . This scholar is also Students of Professor Li Anyou Many officials in Taiwan are graduates of Columbia University. For
example , Su Qi is a Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University , and Xu Sijian is also a doctor of political science under the guidance of Professor Li Anyou. Professor Li Anyou has long studied Chinese and Taiwan politics. In China in the United States In the circle of problem research experts, he is a senior senior , so he also has many unique and in-depth insights. So today I would like to invite Professor Li Anyou to analyze the current situation in the Taiwan Strait and the possible future prospects of Taiwan and China’s cross-strait relations for the audience friends in Taiwan. Xiao Thank you for your introduction. You mentioned some of my students in Taiwan
, including Taiwan’s current ambassador in Washington. The representative, Michelle Hsiao, is also a graduate of Columbia University . There are many things I’m proud of . Although I can’t think it’s because of me , they are all very successful. But because I have this opportunity to teach so many excellent students from Taiwan and mainland China ANDY at Columbia University, I don’t know if you have noticed that there is a consulting called Eurasia Group , this consulting , it has been analyzed here. One of the top ten global political risks in 2023, the top two are Russia and Xi Jinping , so the two risks of Russia and China should not surprise friends around the world , and audience friends in Taiwan may also pay attention to these two now Question , do you think that now that Xi Jinping has centralized power in one person , will his centralized decision-making model produce results in China, will it cause more and more troubles or threats to the surrounding areas? What might be the threat? For example, Mao Zedong once said that he was going to fight a nuclear war. If the threat posed by Xi Jinping
is compared with Mao Zedong’s previous threat to the world, do you think Xi Jinping will reach the level of threat that Mao Zedong threatened? Well, you have a question Very true. My own point of view is that the Chinese experts in the United States are more optimistic because some people in the US government, especially in the Pentagon, are more pessimistic. They think that Xi Jinping will definitely attack Taiwan in the next five years , so I myself Yes, I am not the only one who takes another point of view , but I belong to the more optimistic side, that is , I think Xi Jinping . My basic point of view is that Xi Jinping is smarter than some American strategists . Xi Jinping is smarter. This does not guarantee that he will always be like this. You know that you will be wise and wise to use a smarter strategic idea , but from the time he was in power until now , let’s take the example of the South China Sea. The South China Sea has very huge economic value and (has) huge strategic value because if If there is a war in Taiwan, the South China Sea will become a battleground for this war . This is a reason why China needs it. They think they need to control the South China Sea . Well, when Xi Jinping came to power, the South China Sea was still the US Navy . That is to say, the US is not in control of the South China Sea. It doesn’t have much territory , but the U.S. Navy is dominant, which
means it has more power. After Xi Jinping builds the seven so-called sand islands, right? In the process of building the sand islands, the surrounding countries in the South China Sea have no way to speak because they It is weaker than China , and the United States does not have one . That is to say, there is a reason to say that the United States has just said something , but it has not responded effectively. So now Xi Jinping basically controls the South China Sea . This is also the case with Senkaku Islands. Diaoyutai is also an example . That is to say, Japan is not effective. The reaction of China is that there are more and more ships and planes near the Diaoyutai , but Japan has no way to fight effectively , so Xi Jinping took a certain risk , but he did not cause it in the end. That is to say, it is a real war , and it is to get his goal . Then Taiwan seems to be the same, that is to say, he will step to the sideline , but he will not cross the red line , so he will release more and more pressure on Taiwan , including military. The pressure of diplomacy, economic pressure, and the pressure of information warfare is increasing day by day , but it has not yet caused a Sino-US war . So in this case, he can think that he is gradually promoting his interests . Does he need something? Solving the so-called Taiwan issue within a certain period of time is also an issue that everyone is debating, because Xi Jinping has various statements, for example , it must be completed before 2049.
I forget the specifics, that is, what exactly he said , but he has one The formulation means that in the second 100 years , he wants to accomplish China’s destiny. Whether this includes the unification of Taiwan , we don’t know, but he didn’t make it clear that there is a certain timetable. I personally think that China’s Beijing’s goal is mainly to prevent Taiwan declares independence or prevents Taiwan Consolidate from consolidating its substantive independence , as long as Taiwan does not declare independence or does not get more and more diplomatic recognition , especially from the United States. If we want to normalize diplomatic relations or gain more substantial international independence, we can say that Xi Jinping has achieved his most critical goal , that is, the Taiwan issue . Taiwan has not yet left the mainland. In this diplomatic or political sense , the unification of Taiwan is the first The second task I think this task is possible from the perspective of the CCP.
If the trend is beneficial to Beijing , they can endure it . I don’t think that the trend is beneficial to Beijing. I don’t think so, but I think Beijing’s point of view is I think whether Taiwan residents want to unify or not , this is secondary. The main reason is that Beijing’s judgment is that the United States is becoming more and more chaotic. The United States is getting weaker and weaker. The United States is becoming less and less willing to fight. of
This is the mainstream analysis , so if they think that the United States is more and more insufficient, they can wait until the United States realizes that we do not have the strength to join the war in the Taiwan Strait . At that time, Taipei can also wake up and know that they have nothing else to do. The way out At that time, according to Beijing’s point of view , we can enter into an effective dialogue, resolve this with Taiwan , and finally resolve the Taiwan issue. So if Beijing is optimistic , there is no need to fight a very tragic war in this strait.
If a war is fought in the strait, this is Everyone has lost a lot , including the United States, China, Taiwan, Japan, and the world , so this thing must be avoided. Then , Professor Andrew , I would like to ask you another question. I think you already know that in January this year, the US think tank , the strategy and The International Research Center is CSIS, they released a research report called "China's Next This War" and the first one, the first battle of the next war , is a war game about China's invasion of Taiwan , so I think You must know the general meaning of this report . What I want to ask you is that the Democrats and Republicans in the
US Congress have made some unanimous support for Taiwan and do not want any changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait because China If the United States follows the predictions of the CCP, it thinks that the United States will become weaker. The so-called rise in the east and decline in the west is the CCP. The United States will become stronger and weaker. According to this trend , he can wait. This is a possibility . When the United States is really as weak as he expected, it is too weak to support Taiwan . Now it seems that the United States has no intention of giving up its support.
In fact, Taiwan has become more supportive of Taiwan . In this case , is it because the CCP has another consideration , that is, when the United States is not fully prepared and its strength is not strong enough, hurry up and attack Taiwan first, and then you will talk about this . The question just mentioned is of course a question , but there are several parts in it. One part is whether the United States is going west . From the perspective of Beijing, China , Biden is relatively strong . That is to say , he arranges cooperation with our allies . Look at this In the case of the war in Ukraine, Biden ’s actions were not as effective as we expected , so Biden’s Administration is not that weak, but the American system is weak . One is the president after Biden, we don’t know. Who or who is the president after Biden? We don’t know who the president is after Biden. If you look at the past , it’s like Bush Junior, right? A popular senator was elected president , who is that Reagan, that Tr Who is the ump? That is to say, the president elected by the United States does not have as much experience and ability as Biden. This is one. The second is that our budget deficit is increasing
, and we cannot solve this problem because we have a separation of powers. What does the president want to do, the Congress will not let him do it, etc. , and our racism (race) in this country, the bad relationship between blacks, whites, and Asians, etc. So if it comes from Beijing, I don’t know Whether the future of the United States is good or bad, I really don’t know because I am I. I often joke that
I don’t know how the United States is because I am an expert on China. If you ask me how is China, it is easy to answer simply because China is governed by one person. I know that he alone wants to What to do We know where China is going , but it is difficult for the United States.
I have no way of knowing . Anyway, I still think that the analysis of Beijing’s words means that although Biden is not bad in the United States , Biden still has 2 years to go. He may not be elected in the next election. So from this point of view , they can be optimistic and Beijing can be optimistic. The second point to mention is that you mentioned the Congress , the President ’s budget, etc. They all have the same view on China
, so I think this is very important. Yes , that is to say, the United States used to have a debate in the United States , that is, whether China's rise is good or bad. Most experts believe that China's rise is a good thing for the benefit of the United States , because the stronger and richer China is, the more friendly they are to the United States . Then this I think our current view of American public opinion and politicians on China is completely You know, a complete 180-degree change.
Yes , it is that the rise of China is very, very, very dangerous . To what extent , there is a small one in it There is room for debate. Some people think that the rise of China is a life-and-death relationship. The relationship with the United States is the new Cold War of Existential Crisis. There are also some people , and according to my own point of view, this includes most of the decision-makers in the White House. I think the rise of China is a challenge , but it’s not a life-and-death crisis . We should have a Strategic Competition
Right, a strategic competition , not a relationship that You know is a comprehensive conflict, but more and more we need to find a way . If we talk about strategic competition It doesn’t matter if it’s a full-scale conflict . The result is similar . It means that China’s rise must be contained gradually, not completely. It’s not like the Containment in the 1950s , but it’s still the same. The difference is not easy to see, so I I think that because the trend of American public opinion and political opinion is so increasingly biased towards the fear of China’s rise , the danger mainly comes from the United States , not from Xi Jinping. Many people in the United States say this is a crisis , and we will all soon This is to contain China. I am afraid that if there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, one of the things that may happen is this. That is
to say, if it does not happen, if the next president is under the pressure of the Congress and establishes normal international relations with Taipei. Right, so this is a scenario Right, is a scenario in this Under the circumstances, I think Beijing has no other choice . It needs this to start a war. In fact, Taiwan is not an issue , but the so-called "Taiwan issue" needs to be resolved peacefully. This is the position of the United States . We don't think this position should change. But there are many people in Washington. Especially in Congress , but the executive branch also needs to change this position , and Biden himself is very clear that we have said four times that if China goes to war, the United States will definitely intervene . This is our view . Then the question you raised is that if it happens In case of war, OK, this question has to be answered in two steps. If there is a war , the CCP and the United States will not use force first. The
United States may say something that leaves Xi Jinping with no other choice. Later, if Xi Jinping uses force , he has two choices. One choice is China. In other words, Blitzkrieg (blitzkrieg)
is a very, very powerful force that will soon hit Taiwan . On the second day and the third day, this thing is over. This is one method . The second method is blockade (blockade) , which is to block the blockade. Then I The average person thinks that the first option is Blitzkrieg is the hardest for the US to break in and blockade is easier My view is the opposite I think if Xi Jinping uses all this force to hit Taiwan soon US is also near Taiwan in Guam Japan is in South Korea, the Philippines is in the South China Sea , has a lot of military power and can respond quickly. In this case, this war is not easy to win for the mainland. The blockade is difficult to deal with. From the perspective of the United States
, because OK, this is not much to talk about. If we want to talk more, we can talk more. OK, the second question is whether the current deployment of the United States is enough to fight against the CCP, or Blitzkrieg (blitzkrieg) or blockade. We all think it is not enough now , because until recently, the military deployment of the United States is relatively complacent , that is, it thinks that the CCP will not fight . We will not change the deployment we have had since now and now we are starting to wake up and think that our deployment needs to be changed . Why is the main reason why the United States' deployment in the Asia-Pacific region from the end of the Second World War actually depends on a small number of very Very large planes , naval bases, and aircraft carriers. Now because the CCP’s military is developing , the CCP has methods to attack the bases and the carrier , the carrier carrier, the carrier carrier , so the deployment of the United States is relatively vulnerable and weak . One point , so this is not weak, very strong, but very vulnerable and has weaknesses . I mean, the CCP has a method of dealing with it. They have developed it. Yes
, they are very clear about what your deployment is , so the force they develop is to face it. We have this thing , so this thing needs to be changed . If such a tragic war happens, the United States will first be Xi Jinping’s own legitimacy. You mentioned that Xi Jinping is now serving this third term and he is re-elected. My impression Among them, Xi Jinping's grasp of this third term will seriously damage his legitimacy . Many people in the mainland do not agree with him.
He is becoming more and more concentrated in power . People in the mainland don’t seem to dare to oppose it , but they don’t support it so much. If you fight a war in Taiwan , especially if you lose, this will very much shake Xi Jinping. The second is the destruction of the triangle , which means that the destruction is very extensive and should be included in China. Of course , we don’t know whether the US military will attack mainland China.
The other is the global economy , because the global economy is now very globalized . Truncated So I mean this issue is multifaceted I hope this won't happen but the first one is to ask American politicians to be a little more responsible I personally discuss this with Taiwanese audiences sometimes about the future situation in Taiwan At that time, I felt that there was a big loophole in the U.S. strategy toward China and Taiwan. Andy, I want to briefly explain this. My idea is that the U.S. is most concerned about preventing the CCP from launching a war . So I think that as long as it does not War, Taiwan ’s status quo can be maintained, then it’s OK . Then let’s talk about how the United States prepares . I think where is the loophole ? If there is no war, Xi Jinping will not launch an armed attack , but he will peacefully reunify Taiwan and occupy Taiwan . So for the United States What does it mean? I feel as if no one in the United States has discussed this issue, and no one has thought about this issue . When Taiwan becomes a province of China, and the People’s Liberation Army is stationed in Taiwan, what does it mean for Okinawa, Okinawa , Guam, and Guam, the current base of the US military ? What kind of contingencies will the US’s overall East Asia policy need to make ? In this case, after Taiwan becomes a province of the People’s Republic of China , for example, some people in Taiwan advocate doing the same . It will be a positive impact on stability and peace in East Asia. The positive impact is still a negative impact
, so in fact, a small number of scholars pay attention to this issue. If Taiwan is unified , either peacefully or by force, the first result is that the Chinese navy can go to this so-called Philippine very freely. The Philippine Sea is Taiwan. The other side is a very big threat. It threatens the Philippines, threatens Japan, threatens the various island countries in the Pacific Ocean, you know, small islands, ocean islands , Australia and so on . A very wide gate, they can come and go freely . The second result is technological issues . Because you know that Taiwan, TSMC , and Taiwan ’s chip Semiconductor Manufacturing are all about semiconductors , and Taiwan has some very critical high-tech technologies.
This thing will be controlled by the CCP and hurt the United States. The economy , harming the military technology of the United States, etc. The third and related to the specific question you mentioned just now is what impact will this have on the relationship between the United States and the United States' allies ? It's hard to say , but generally speaking , if there is a subtle change in the check and balance of power between China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, you know that China, the United States, and the United States will rise from the east to the west, and I don't know to what extent , but to a certain extent, Japan It has to think about its strategy again. Think about its strategy again , because it has no way to independently fight against China. Although Japan has a very large population and a large GDP, and its military strength is not small , it is impossible to deal with China independently.
Not to mention South Korea, the Philippines , Singapore, etc. So to a certain extent, they all need to think again. If they want to nuclearize themselves or respond to China, it’s hard to say. It’s hard to say . Of course, this is related to some Others , other things that may happen in the world will also be related . For example, the Russian war , the US presidential election, etc. may be mixed up to a certain extent , but the worst result is that the US alliance system allies It may shrink and dissolve. If this happens , the power of the United States will be very, very small.
Therefore , I think Taiwan’s autonomy and Taiwan’s substantial independence have great strategic significance for the United States . The reason why the CCP says that the United States is using it Some people in Taiwan , including those on Taiwan Island, say that the United States is using Taiwan for its own strategic interests. This statement is true to a certain extent , and there are certain facts. It means that if Taiwan is not substantively independent , it will harm the strategic interests of the United States. Good
time for us today. Almost in the end, I just want to ask you a small question , that is, based on the analysis you just made, we say that if Taiwan is accepted by the CCP and becomes a province of China , it will have an important impact on the United States. The analysis you just mentioned , then please Let me say a few more words about what it means to the 23 million residents of Taiwan Province. When you introduced me, you also said that I have many students and many friends in Taiwan . For 50 years, you know some very, very kind friends. Of course, if you may remember that when Lee Teng-hui was president , he published a so-called "Unification Program", saying that if China is democratized, we are very willing to unify with you . Of course, if the mainland is democratized, the mainland will become a democratic and free country like Taiwan. If Taiwan is unified with the CCP , the impact on Taiwan residents may not be so bad , but if the mainland continues to develop on this path, it will get worse and worse and harm human rights , as in Hong Kong . The impact of the unification of Taiwan on Taiwan residents will be very, very Tragedy , I don’t want to see that , so the strategic analysis I talked to you today is all objective analysis , not what I want to see in my heart. As a human being
, I support my friends in Taiwan , but as a politician, I am not a politician. As an analyst of political science , I can only analyze the situation according to the reality that I can understand. I am very grateful to Professor Li Anyou for taking time out of his busy schedule to analyze the current situation in the Taiwan Strait for our Taiwan friends. We interviewed you a year ago for your interview.
It has aroused a lot of repercussions in Taiwan , so today I believe that our audience friends will listen to your analysis with great interest , especially your last paragraph mentioned your concern for Taiwan, and I also express to you on behalf of our Taiwan audience friends Deep greetings and thanks Thank you Thank you Xiaonong Thank you viewers and friends for watching our program and see you next time
2023-03-31