互相嚴重誤判 兩岸關係如何變局?紅色賭盤掀政權黑幕 20大前中共政治局恐有大變動!習近平脫鉤世界 準備與美打持久戰。210918

Hello everyone and welcome to the forefront of political and economic Uncensored see China host Zhang Honglin I thank you once again for joining us in what we misjudged the first few episodes have to talk about a topic called it a miscalculation of misjudged talk between the US and Taiwan to talk about blue-green miscarriage of justice between the time a lot of people said it was not a miscarriage of justice between the two sides is called between mainland China and Taiwan there are any number of conditions misjudged each other that I think and we need to think about these questions because, after all, through these analyzes can be more rational understanding of each other what we have or do not have much rigid from the bottom of this so-called paranoid of a condition some misunderstanding for some things so this and we need to reflect on what course we think this very happy to invite our perspective is also a senior fellow at China's National Taiwan University professor emeritus of political science at the Ming Juzheng teacher again, to help us resolve what misjudgment that Ming Lin Xiong teacher hello moderator macro Dear viewers, good friends, hello, everyone I think teachers If we just mentioned previously talked about the miscarriage of justice in the United States talked about the miscarriage of justice between the Taiwan blue-green cause I think a lot of people very very strong idea with some imagination you say that obviously should have some many between the two sides Some teacher status miscarriage of justice so the subject you want to talk about it from where to start I would like to talk about the miscarriage of justice that is the root of this miscarriage of justice from where the root of this ideology should come from both sides on the basic belief is not the same as this basic belief is not the same so resulting in a wide variety of differences, say they have gone in the communist mainland resulting in politically is the instruction that prohibits economic and social diversification of this culture is very strict control is very strict control so the experience of life is not completely one-party dictatorship and then in the past on economic like this resulted in the miscalculation you say to misunderstanding Ye Hao should put it this way as you say there are a lot of misconceptions Taiwan to see the mainland with Taiwan and the mainland false positives there are a lot of misconceptions with false positives that will be divided into two blocks I think so let's talk about it is to see the mainland with Taiwan, which misunderstandings about false positives can be divided into four or five areas it first on provincial issues on the continent, especially to see the provincial Communist Party official on Taiwan has a great deviation second this the relationship between the mainland species differences with the party with the provincial Taiwan independence had a lot of false positives with third misunderstanding some people in Taiwan will support reunification of the mainland, but Taiwan's pro-unification is a misunderstanding of the fourth is the CCP does not know why the people of Taiwan feel more afraid death is relatively small guts this is the fourth misjudgment fifth observation is a Taiwanese society as a whole feel loose and chaos in Taiwan society as a whole I think this is probably five more serious it is and I think we will do some one by one resolve the issue of provincial teacher just mentioned the issue of Taiwan's Taiwan Province I am very curious about this may be watching from mainland China in Taiwan provincial issue, I believe there may be different and even some provincial political party with Taiwan's independence with a little Some old association Teachers are not we talk in terms of these two good course, this Taiwanese born there or let's say like this From the sociological point of view there is no such problem on the provincial community for everyone to see the first of several indicators Can children go to school is just different provincial Can children go to school together Hakka Taiwan province with other provinces that Aboriginal Can these children go to school with this first and the second is when they graduated from school in Can the same company or work in a factory inside some provincial areas is a serious problem that they can not be third after leaving school or left the work environment of inter-provincial membership can people make friends that I am a Taiwanese you are mainlanders we will go to dinner and a movie and then go play go swimming or do anything again play pool, etc. the last is the most important indicator of the different provincial people can can marriage married so school work Dating marriage probably say that we generally look serious not serious provincial standard early with the four indicators considered serious in front of Taiwan have no problem with school work no problem making friends not to marry Taiwanese do not want to say his daughter to marry the provinces then people do not want to say marry mainlanders will not have a daughter now this is the first encounter with a second provincial party identification should put it this way always feel that mainland with Taiwan's provincial political party is simply cut Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party is supported by outsiders to support the KMT in Taiwan so elections are not the result simply is distributed in Taiwan, if the provincial very clear to us since that is about 70% of Taiwanese mainlanders or outsiders think of probably about 12% of the second generation of Hakka think probably about 15% of the rest is probably such a proportion of aboriginal If this is the case from start to finish DPP should take 70% of the vote and the Kuomintang can only get 12% of the vote and then see how he Hakka investment law but not like this ah we know up to now barely more than half of the DPP thing to get half of the edge of the Kuomintang thing a long time since a long time it is more than half of its dominant so in other words what we saw of it until now I do not say this in front of a long story short voters to vote provinces so far concentrated mostly in these new Kuomintang party who these voters that the province is basically similar to two points almost 35% of the semi-cast relatively green party voted 35% comparing blue party which is a very long time Hakka voters very interesting and just 7.5% for the half-cast Kuomintang 7.5% greenish cast party so simply mainlanders in Taiwan voting behavior is more concentrated and the province is split vote and then vote Hakka also split vote with the result of today's provincial parties agree not agree with this third part is fully consistent with the mainland often feel that the KMT party unity is about the Association The party is the government of Taiwan independence Now blue-green party in Taiwan are still not really feeling we have to look carefully there are a lot Kuomintang proportion of Taiwan independence Democratic Progressive Party there are a certain percentage of unification that we often overlook the very early so I found this thing I was surprised because I was there to pay a lot of friends who DPP is very conventional person to my system a little surprised, of course some people later left because the concept of substandard away but some people still inside then today KMT you say there are a lot of pro-independence system it inside so I often tell me that can not be used to divide the KMT DPP unification and independence because it is an imprecise indicator we all know that Taiwan is now the biggest party called the Party of the status quo does not maintain the status quo What does it mean that no party system is not only how much it accounted for about 70% of the system so we said the KMT DPP alone do not necessarily put up a real good repeat that the status quo is the last word why the status quo because we do so much If the CCP is afraid not so afraid of the CCP, then now with the unification and independence ... sounds may be called more loudly so it is not like the status quo is simply the core reason for Taiwan's largest party and the status quo is that we are afraid of the CCP afraid of communism Communist doctrine for fear that it actually deserves full of interesting to think that a good teacher and another of those mentioned include Taiwan Taiwanese misconceptions include unification of the fear of death on society as well as including Taiwan loose confusion this part of the teacher to see how it is that sub-Taiwan unification had this to say now because Taiwan did not put it inside a clear distinction and interesting is Taiwan's pro-unification he did not make it clear which supports Taiwan's unification with the communists unified Taiwan accounted for 1% of the population there are about 3% to 3% error of 1% to 3% as well as about 3% of the error is low can be high low high 0 to 6% 0-6% Usually we simply grasping the figures on the intermediate 4% to about 5% of these people then the entire unified support of Taiwan's population accounted for about 15% other 10% what people do is to send a unified democratic future democratization of China, then we are unified or that we hope to promote democratization in China so he unified China in the future is that these good people that you say that since this is the case that unification is not the most I've just talked about maintaining the status quo is to send 70% of what it maintain the status quo when the CCP was like this annoying I'm going to maintain the status quo but when the Chinese Communists once the collapse of the time I do anything else I have to consider other options so today most of the candidates said that maintaining the status quo because I can not see Well I can not see changes in the future I do not know what will happen in the future I do not way to predict the future of the case I had to be here, this is the status quo so I stay here, I'll see about maintaining the status quo so send I often say that they will wait and see send'll see how thing go away in the future well I'll go separate the good that I actually unified frankly I think I say you really going to be some people in Taiwan independence He really did not want him to say if there is a chance I get back to the mainland become more than good so I chunks of place so rich in resources, not to mention why I give the people of Taiwan independence in the future even if I continent by others took me how I feel unsafe to get their hands are not more secure, not to mention my ancestors may have come from Henan to Shandong from the northeast come from or how do you know so this is the first point of the second point is about the people of Taiwan can not fight this timid afraid of death is left behind, then the Manchu Qing Dynasty ceded Taiwan was in order when he has to disparage Taiwan would not let him because his face is difficult to see what kind of bird it was, without a word such as flowers not fragrant ruthless men and women nonsense words a result it seems everyone is talking about this thing is catchy Manchu self-stall, then get a lot of people today really have this misconception that the people of Taiwan are generally grew up reading the book of Confucius and Mencius so relatively speaking, we are more polite polite is not afraid of death is not the kind you see us timid social news every night when the kids to play more fierce fight ah play more powerful ah There is not any fear of death this is the first another is that Taiwan is an immigrant society we often underestimate the time that Taiwan 2, 300 years ago or even earlier time of Han Chinese immigrants from the mainland came to this group of people was arduous when Taiwan is not developed to the mountains he must start he is open to Aboriginal life on the one hand is to keep competing competition competitive competitive source of water and then this land what Zhangzhou, Quanzhou people with competing competition competitive water resources land so very serious fights at that time you completely invisible Taiwanese fear death and then Taiwan fight the Japanese at that time to account for the time when Taiwan Taiwanese up anti-Japanese very brave so afraid to die so you can not see what the CCP say this is not to make our own ambition this is the first layer of a second Wuhan layer of pneumonia when we self-closed city, he said you see Taiwanese fear death then Chinese people say you look at the people of Taiwan are not afraid of death or how it is our strong self-discipline all of us feel that we want to protect our first second, we want to protect their own people do not just come out scared to death of us all wearing masks to protect themselves not just say that we often talk about wearing masks to protect themselves to protect others say that the thing we are so Taiwanese frankly suffered heavy this Confucian education comparison of someone else consider compare gas and gas does not mean the fear of death when we are faced with aggression when we all stood up scared to death of you know that we are not afraid of death that just speaking of the fear of death is the third part of the problem is that the CCP believes said Taiwan society loose and confusing this is what I just said because I believe the CCP ideology dictates a communist party dictatorship believe believe believe strict rule of the rule of violence so when he was ruled down when violence and high-pressure society appears to be totally organized not at all the turmoil, say for example, the KMT vote took 50.1% Democratic Progressive Party took 49.9 percent of the votes of the vote or vice versa Democratic Progressive Party took 51 percent of the vote KMT took 49 percent of the vote in parliament and then also fight in the legislature fighting in the streets to fight you is that Taiwan society is not loose and chaotic this is because the rules of the game on the other hand it is listed mainland tickets 3000 3000 3000 vote for the same person to vote for the same party to the day when you let him have free will you look at this will not just be the second such vote so part of the third part of the Chinese Communist Party, said Taiwan society think that's a very loose and confusing standards seen from the ideological point of view the results of their looks Taiwan society will be unrest and demonstrations inside the parliament feel that Taiwan will fight social chaos then a very loose because they are used to seeing totalitarian one-party rule under the high pressure on the surface everything appears to be orderly but once burst up, then if the confusion is unbearable to pack a democratic society which allows various interests cross-cut each other competition but we have rules of the game so I remember before I speak Taiwanese society looks messed up but we do after a game to play with the rules of the game but then we mess to a certain extent but did not stop to totalitarian social rules of the game surface the look is very thorough, but once the mess up when it was really out of hand so they see chaos in Taiwan society and which is loosely twisted totalitarian vision that I think is so that we can understand what we just talked about of course is the Chinese Communist Party for many Some Taiwan miscarriage of justice, of course, look back and say that Taiwan do not have to misjudgment of the communist Party of China do your part to see how this teacher had the first course is a fact, we often do not know they are communist countries know we do not know too that we often find ourselves saying it's just another country to forget that the characteristics of communism that is a fundamental problem here, but derived from the first few misjudgment misjudgment feel that the mainland is very strong nothing the second is not very good and the continent's economy will get better this thing is good now many people still believe that this is the third continent has vast market and great opportunities for the future also we do not go to the fourth angered Communist otherwise bad luck then the fifth is what I think most people unconsciously exaggeration to say that many mainland communist one-party dictatorship regime will not collapse will not continue down this I think is the most absurd that I should talk about the first one to say that mainland because it is a powerful all-powerful one-party dictatorship mainland propaganda anything so what you want to control what you want to know what you want to hear me tell you that you do not have outside material you want so I used propaganda in the hands of Finally, to promote it on the whole you have been brainwashed you noticed all the tyranny before the collapse looks very strong this we have the opportunity to say so in detail the CCP propaganda to constantly brag about the powerful because he thought says Once, after my weaknesses are exposed on the problem so that I may be the first to boast of his propaganda and everyone got used to the Chinese Communist Party propaganda propaganda propaganda brainwashing everyone is after Xi Yan be aware this is the first second I simply continent's economy said privileged private enterprises the rule of law issues in question are often subject to bullying and the core of the technology is relatively weak and the market economy has not been established so the continent's economy is not as good as it looks on the surface is only temporary prosperity of a larger political question of our past and more times talked about the one-party rule of the brutal factional fighting and finally into the pressure cooker once broke out when you look at Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union see very clearly the CCP military is now the favorite to come up with something to promote you see me cover navy ship very fast 1 year to 1 , two under the dumplings as fast as what a very, very now and then I cover aircraft carriers and so very surprising, and so on and then with the US hegemony so everything must appear strong as it once exposed weaknesses like I just said you think and take advantage of the Soviet Union gave us a good lesson of the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, when it was the world's strongest military strength it is the world's largest nuclear arsenal of its navy is no less American than the United States Air Force may slightly worse point it's the Olympics gold medal than the United States more than it should launch a space station or even the United States has not the capability to launch a space station so how do you say that I think this is also a part of this we see the extension of some of Taiwan's misjudgment of China's portion of the course, according to the teacher just mentioned in fact, part of the Chinese economy is clearly still a lot of questions really China's economy would just like you to extend the terms of this question is obviously not only a lot of a lot of very serious and should say this means that the communist way no way Having a good job of the modern economy sentence why this way it keeps the first communist privilege we have talked about the privilege has caused a lot of unfair, especially where it unfair competition among a civilian population simply open a company with a company equally among the children open competition a subject matter you think will win it we have not talked about if 92% of the wealthy are among the children of senior cadres, then that means this society which says there is unfair competition privilege this is the first point second point between the rule of law not been apparent among commercial disputes to have a lot of last resort to the administration of justice if the law does not really protect the rule of law and justice, then to finally destroy the competition it must cause too much confusion this matter too much Taiwanese suffer too much I do not have a third example I always say I speak with you finally believe mainland state-owned enterprises of private enterprises is very dangerous years ago, many private bosses told me that no matter what I did not say you are careful of secondary public-private partnerships to come now to the right in recent years we see again is very much suitable for the market economy we say that the economic structure of modern industrial society must be a perfect market economy today, this is my long story short on the mainland Because of those reasons just did not build a market economy and so in the end competition is unfair and dangerous competition in the economic part of the continent to the last point is the reason for so many years because the front and there is no good development and a lot of core technology out today many rely on the economy to the core technology is not piled up the core technology economy in the end it is always better to people of this continent's largest economic weakness this really means that we look in the end there may be a so-called totalitarian politics and want to take on economy enjoy this open and democratic part of it and now we've seen a lot of tightening of policy that affect some of the so-called common prosperity will produce interlocked I think and we need to do some observation is of course the last thing I think a lot of people concerned about even I believe it is in China or overseas Chinese pursue a question that free Chinese democracy Chinese people on the teacher just mentioned, we have always thought that the CCP authoritarian particular, it is now recognition that technology can face a lot of Chinese people are very proud to say you see we can now take the phone we all pay for this stupid joke that you all your cash flow are controlled on the free government you do not even know what you buy him nothing you shun people ignore you as long as you change trouble-making or you begin this government has all the information listed ultrafast this is Janus-faced technology turn out to be a greater control of the authoritarian state so according to this reasoning, if the CCP incredible wow that he called for people to control in fact is more powerful pair of unbreakable ah ah it should be more for me just talking about a problem that is actually tainted speak a little of this market is still a lot of business friends in Taiwan with business friends outside business friends feel that mainland China is a good market in fact, speaking in front of a four-point first economic law privilege second third fourth danger of private enterprises in the market economy has not been established that these four points already tell you that the mainland market is not a good market, it is not a mature market it is at most an adventurer's paradise If you are willing to take risks I did not put it neatly if you are willing to do business if it is not a good place to details we will have the opportunity to say Taiwan is being unfairly unfair pressure on the mainland and we just have not told you just Well spoke last few months to strengthen the supervision of the continent against a number of industries on proven time and again said that the mainland market is a market that is dangerous supplement the previous section you just say that the problem of the Chinese Communist regime unbreakable I will still return to my argument just before the collapse of the Soviet Union in the world no one saw the collapse of the Soviet Union would at least not openly talked about this first point of the CCP is currently very much internal and external problems we have repeatedly in the past few on the second point of the program we will go back and look at our program now you know that it is unbreakable because he used propaganda to cover up you can not see it but if you look at our detailed program and then if you do not believe me, then you Are some of the highlights you carefully go down control to see if it looks like we are talking about a lot of things we used to predict things have happened not by accident that is, we must master the Chinese mainland with social and even political structure it developed some rules of law we deduce from this some of the possible evolution of this process and in which we continue to look at correcting what the CCP to do what we revise our observations we see that our observations are basically simple to say is that mainland China serious internal and external problems now super continent so there will be great changes in the future this is only a matter of what you say third Chinese Communist Party is to know know do not know it just would not let the people know about it within it is an internal senior executives know more the more clear two years ago when a few years ago, this time to Taiwan, but also people from the mainland every few years from time to time I encountered the mainland and some senior officials met to talk on this thing and then they asked me to talk about my perception of the continent I speak out when he said that they basically agree with that is, I later noticed the mainland to Taiwan people talk to me about his higher the level the more he knows the more mainland insider agree with our belief that those underlying after people watch all day long just look at CCTV read the news network's "people's Daily" see "Xinhua" he could not believe what I say, but listening to what we are talking about a closer look at him as long as he returned to his sanity slowly I have to see to understand we are talking about is the propaganda that is constantly brainwashed by the CCP continue to cover up because he knows he has to have a problem so we talked about in the past that he knows he is so fast he was such a problem to do so because he did receive all the resources on hand to cope with the future in case you want to collapse that day he was really worried about this thing good now repeat that back in the Soviet Union began about 3 years 10 communist regime has 1989 1991 the collapse of basic smoothly so Su Dongbo this thing on the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe that Poland magnificence of this change things in the future we have the opportunity to do it again in detail a few albums, but I can tell you that if human nature does not change, then human nature remains as we do now, then nobody can endure a long-term one-party rule with a long-term system pressure so once people understand the wisdom slowly opens the truth he would choose the path he should take everyone will say that if the Communist collapse, then it is not very dangerous to do day-to-CCP later told us that the collapse of the communist regime can not continue or do you want to communist Party rule their heads chopped off that scare you with the collapse within three years we have said Poland and Hungary East Germany, Czech and Bulgaria with Romania, Albania, Yugoslavia, the Soviet communist regime in Mongolia 10 I ask a few countries have a big bloody Yugoslav no other reason that we say and we can see the future conclusion of these countries after the collapse of the communist regime not only social unrest as the communist Party did not go as predicted Most countries will soon calm down only the Yugoslav civil war in other countries have not only stabilized the economy and stabilize the slowly improving like this is probably not a good four years ago but has started to go up the fifth year usually begins it is back to the collapse of the communist regime began six years beyond the first year in many countries beyond Poland, Hungary and Czech many countries are now more than three Taiwan you say how do we explain this thing so the collapse of the communist regime can say right now that we observe the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe experience our conclusion is that the collapse of the communist regime and society tend to be stable within a few years a comprehensive political and economic social and cultural change for the better religion I think this section if you doubt the easiest part is that if you can find that you can not just over the wall come over the wall to the forefront of political and economic message Please take a moment to look over the wall to see which of these regimes in Eastern Europe democratization process certainly will not all people are the same opinions, but we can ask the majority of them have a rather miss the Communist Party of the country that in the end it is a high or low proportion I think this is self-defeating this section can be understood but it is not so this is not what we think it should be the people of any country should be subject to such a treatment which is what I think it is a program in which we clearly want to drive a demand expressed very grateful today Mingju Zheng teacher to another part of some miscalculation between the two sides, I think we can make this more clear, of course there should be a lot of faces can be sustained further depth do discuss I think in the future we have the opportunity then please state teacher can continue to help us resolve today, and thank you for watching the same please everyone if you are certainly fond of our program, then welcome to help us CTR by Chan turn pass the message to we know what you think of the program with the idea that you want to know what some of the topics I think for now we will try to find a way to make these topics for everyone to share or re-emphasize course I know a lot of people are coming over the wall, although I am looking forward through this CTR to express support for the program but we certainly still a goodness of a program we hope you under the protection of the safety of all good to watch our program because after all, we are not a commercial one channel we still hope to play a long time may be longer concerned about China's democratization all friends are very important to our family, we hope that we can have a stable life and longevity then we refuel with still the same friends I still believe the idea that we take time final Lin will become trickle we continue to refuel thanks again next teacher also thank you for watching Hello everyone and welcome to the forefront of political and economic Uncensored see China host Zhang Honglin I thank you for joining us again recently I think many in China's internal affairs internal Some of the past as we have done in a few episodes contain some discussion of industrial package for these so-called entertainment For these games industry with even contain up to teach the industry have done a lot of some of the regulation means friends but fear is this is just an opportunity to act by an event like this to actually exercise his purpose, I think there are other this is worth a good to explore today I am very happy to be invited again for a long time gone far we Tangjing teacher told us to connect Tang teacher hello Moderator viewers hello everyone is a good teacher Tang said it was because of course we talk about this in the past, said Ali Baba Ma Zhao Wei ah ah say they will buckle is attached to the past, this so-called systems of these systems Jiang Zemin, of course, this has a variety of vivid a number of statements which we ask Tang teacher in the end is how the actual situation is such that I that look is so purged Ma Ma in fact he was not a person in fact it also includes many other Internet giants are such that this area Tencent bit like this, and so it seems we have got rid of this, but just to varying degrees Ma is got rid of most weight behind this one I think he is at least a factor of three major factors first, I think he is Xi Jinping to purge some personal grudge between him and Ma Ma this should be secondary to the most the main factor is Xi Jinping he should be got rid of Ma would like to take him to be cut apart the cut-fan is a noun on our past history means that there are some kind of power on this place once he is likely to center after his unwieldy constitution a threat then this is the example that is similar to the cut Fan Ma like that sometimes we can see in the official reports of the official who spoke in the discussion to Ma ah like the pieces of this time include those like Tencent it has three key words of a keyword that is what we are official anti-monopoly, anti-monopoly in fact, this monopoly, it does what I think it means a sense it is actually a bit in the past said that the equivalent of species dominate the party as large wealthy rival principalities such as Xi Jinping so he thought after you have forces and expanding the formation of a threat to him, especially under the CCP's political and business system, it is one that he is not a simple businessman Ma like these he is actually behind this there is a deep political forces in this first key word is the second key word giants antitrust official called it he said that these capital have emerged "sprawl" right this "sprawl" in fact, we literally alone, this you can see its meaning so it is called a disorder in that it is not in the hands of the control of authorities inside if the control is in the authorities' his hands will feel it belongs to the orderly expansion of such sprawl so it means that it's such a hands on control of the authorities so that it is not the authorities that he will find this to be so himself if you sit it's really big down would constitute a danger in this is the third official rhetoric, he has mentioned that is to clarify the relationship between this government and business To clarify the relationship between government and business actually mean it, I think it is actually a bit of what the meaning of it is that he does not want a modern Lu Pu appeared to say you are a businessman you are not too much of your business is business to participate in this political involvement inside be so like Lu Pu this one is historically typical of a man is right by the supplier into politics and finally even the control of the regime throughout the country so the authorities is a huge threat so this in my opinion is one of the most important reason that is, he wants to cut Fan Xi Jinping second factor is that he is in fact carried out an industry consciously adjust the industrial restructuring What this means is that we see Xi Jinping him now that he has clearly demonstrated that he thought the first two trends they have to do is re-elected Xi Jinping is preparing a second he showed to the West and the US-led fight a protracted war is the relationship between strategic competitive this competition is to enter into a protracted war in this state so in such circumstances Xi Jinping him he was still even consider the possibility that he may have to implement such a force to invade Taiwan in his next term of office inside this action then this will inevitably bring about a result that is likely to be the CCP faced with this kind of decoupling and the world, or the most severe sanctions so that in such circumstances he must advance into the kind is fully equivalent is such a state is preparing for should he be forced to enter into after the cycle so now we see Xi Jinping, he did a lot of action, including what to teach what medical cosmetology training these in fact, it is relatively empty this industry, he put these relatively empty as he squeezed the industry as extrusion foam extrusion he forced the financial and human resources so these resources are automatically compare real flows such areas as manufacturing industries such as agriculture we see Ma is not only out of it just right to show in a moment that this dish is not it shed agriculture this is about agriculture in fact he is a little mean is this that he made out a model you see us now this gradually to take off the virtual to the real fact, this model of economic development in Xi he in fact he's in the open the field is expressed is implicitly expressed that China's future economic model should not be like the United States what kind of financial development of this model or the Internet to go such a comparison is true, he should go is the German model the manufacturing sector such as manufacturing entities that their focus is on this model this is the second factor is the third factor Xi Jinping what he meant this fight against these oligarchs focus these capital transfers to social conflicts in the use of it is說我們在國內看到 現在他把國內這種貧富分化 造成越來越尖銳的這種社會矛盾 還有就是習近平他自己在外部是吧 國際社會的這種孤立這種矛盾 他都統統把它轉嫁為說你看在國內 你們這些資本是在掠奪老百姓的財富 所以我們現在要走共同富裕的道路 意思就是好像是因為你們這些資本 你們賺太多錢了 你們這個剝削了老百姓 那麼在外部那意思就是你們現在 在充當著這個敵對勢力的 相當於是急先鋒是吧 就是在要對我們進行顏色革命了 你看李光滿那篇文章不是這麼說的嗎 一會兒顏色革命 一會兒什麼第五縱隊了 這些語言都出來了 其實他在用這種方式讓你無形中 就把這種老百姓大家對這個 中共他自己的這種矛盾的焦點 就轉移到了所謂這些資本家的頭上 他避開自己的這種責任 對在我看起來 最主要是這三個因素 是我想唐老師剛剛提到的部分 值得我們來關注 也就是我們一開始 我自己在這個推論就是說 表像上當然你聽起來很有道理 其實唐老師剛剛提到的內容 你會覺得有誰反對 對啊你們這些這個過度 尤其我們過去有看到 包含這些禁奢華 你可以看到以往也有過 就是說覺得這個宴客不要浪費食物 是真的宴客不應該浪費 我自己這個環保團體出身的人 很關注這樣的議題 真的覺得食物不要浪費 但真的是只是為了打擊食物 還是又產生了食物的糧食的危機 會有其他我們不知道的原因 我覺得這個在細節上都有 所以馬雲的確也被逼著要丟出這個 捐出這些錢 這個大概就讓大家認為說 最輕一點的 像剛剛提到了 只是要求馬雲這個卸任職位 然後充公或者是要他這個 捐一些不義之財 嚴重一點的我覺得連性命都會丟失 這部分唐老師你怎麼看呢 這問題我是這麼看的 就是對習近平至少他在現階段來說 他對像馬雲包括像馬化騰 他們這一批人吧 他目前暫時還只是需要取財 就是屬於薅羊毛這種階段 因為他暫時還沒有說是有這種必要 要通過殺人就是要取命是吧 拿你的人頭來立威了 因為這個階段其實在毛澤東 那個時候他已經做過去了 就是他在整個中國社會 對整個這個中國民眾 形成這種恐懼心理 他就有點像一種條件反射一樣 他其實都已經形成了 所以現在習近平 你看他只要稍微做一做這種動作 馬上整個社會的反應 就已經非常的強烈 所以至少在我看來 在現階段他可能對馬雲來說 他現在緊急的表態是吧 我馬上拿出1000億 這個數字其實不是一個小數字了 然後又來表態就說 你看我要去發展農業了 我不搞那些虛的 像剛才我們提到的 說他要由虛轉實了 那麼像這種都是在響應中央的號召 至少是一種服軟的表現 那麼在這種情況下 我覺得習近平不太可能說是在 現在會對他採取一些什麼極端的措施 但是有一點就是中共這個體制 它從來都是這樣的它是分階段的 他在現階段他可能只是說 告訴你取財你不要擔心 你只要交出錢來你就安全了 其實在過去你可以發現 中共他針對這些 就是剛剛建政的時候是吧 他對資本家對這些地主 不也是這樣說的嗎 剛開始你把土地交出來 你把你的錢財交出來你就安全了 但是再過個下一階段 當他覺得這種整個政治形式 需要這樣做的時候 需要用人頭來立威的時候 他同樣會毫不手軟的 所以對馬雲來說我覺得像他這種人 他現在所求得的安全 他只能是一個暫時的對 是我想這個也是我們大概值得 好好來關注這個後續的一些發展了 那當然另外一個有一本書 這個叫做《紅色賭盤》 這裡面當然就是針對 中國共產黨的一些 相關的一些作為 做出一個很清楚的這些評析 大家都會認為說 因為這本書未來會揭...

就是說他有揭露了一些內幕 大概引起世界上也好 或者是我想中國內部 或者像台灣的部分 大家對這本書的內容都會非常好奇 大家當然就說這尤其在20大前 這本書到底會不會造成什麼樣的影響 或者這本書有可能後續引發哪些效應 這部分這個請教一下 我們唐老師您怎麼分析呢 我是這麼看的 這本書其實它對當局的這種衝擊 還是滿大的因為我們看到 這個新聞不是已經有報了嗎 就是當局馬上就把沈棟的這個前妻 也就是這個段偉紅 當事人就把她放出來 然後馬上跟這個沈棟通了一個電話 還拿死亡來對他進行威脅是吧 就如果說你要是非要出版這本書 很有可能你的這些親友親人 他們可能就有性命之危 就是說它說明一個什麼問題呢 就說明這本書它很有可能對當局 至少在他就是習近平20大之前 他覺得這是一個不利的因素 在這裡面我看到 我大致看了一下這本書的內容 我覺得它至少是有四大因素存在 首先第一個就是這本書裡面 他不是披露了很多 這些都是中共高層 而且都是常委這個級別最高層的 很多的這樣一些內幕是吧 比如說這個溫家寶的夫人張培莉 還有包括這個習近平 還有王岐山孫政才像令計劃 還有曾慶紅江澤民等等 全是這樣的一些人 他們好多的這種 他們本人以及他們的親屬之間的 一些這種就是權錢交易 或者是這種一些高層互相之間 怎麼這樣勾心鬥角的一個 真實的這種生態 我覺得他的可信度 其實是比較高的 所以他就帶來第一個後果就是什麼呢 就是他讓外人 讓普通的老百姓都看到了 就是中共高層內部 他是如何進行這種暗箱操作的 這麼一種敗壞的一種行為 這個對中共的形象其實毫無疑問 是一個比較重大的打擊 這個是第一個因素 第二個因素就是我們看到這本書裡面 他其實還揭露了很多 這些紅色權貴們是吧 就是這些高官他們的親屬 其實相當於利用他們的親屬 去作為一個代理 然後去進行權錢交易 比如說利用內幕消息 還有利用這個自己手裡握有這種 像監管審批的這些特權吧 各種各樣的特權一夜暴富 甚至是一夜就暴富到 富可敵國的這樣的一種程度 這樣的一個內幕 它對中共合法性的打擊 我覺得它是非常大的 尤其是現在我們看到 習近平不是還在提嗎 就是說要這個共同富裕 意思就是你們這些有錢人 要去幫助這個窮人 要去帶頭要去幫助他們 其實這本書它說的 就相當於告訴大家 在中國大陸這個社會裡面 誰才是真正的有錢人 這些所謂企業家 像什麼馬雲等等這些人 他們其實都不算 他們只是都是前台的或者是手套 或者說只是說攀附著權貴 來發了一些財的這種紅頂商人而已 真正有錢的其實是這些官員 尤其是這些高層官員 他們真的是富可敵國的 這個是第二個問題 第三個因素就是我們看到這本書裡面 它有特別吸引人的一段這個內容 就是他特別提到了這個孫政才是吧 孫政才他和胡春華 都是被視為當時是接班人的 這麼培養來的兩個人 那麼孫政才就和這個 對這個胡春華他就有一些 這個搞一些動作 他就特別拉攏這個段偉紅是吧 對這個胡春華去進行一些 相當於就是我們說的 現代的宮鬥劇了 就這種宮鬥劇當然在這個 大眾老百姓看起來 它當然是非常戲劇 這個可不是戲 這個是非常真實的 就是中共高層紅牆裡面的 勾心鬥角是吧各種明槍暗箭的 所以它就會帶來一個問題 就是它很有可能會讓習近平 他產生一種聯想 因為大眾他很有可能也會聯想到這點 就是習近平當初他上台 他能夠成為這個接班人是吧 就是他和薄熙來之間 其實也是有這種 很類似於孫政才和胡春華的這種情形 那麼他們之間是不是一樣 也有類似這樣的 就是明爭暗鬥是吧 你爭我奪的這些 就是說是比較齷齪的 就不能夠見光的這種行為 它對習近平的形象毫無疑問 肯定是一個打擊 因為習近平現在我們看他 正在給自己造神嘛對吧 正在塑這個個人崇拜 所以以這樣的一種形象 那你看你就是這個 搞陰謀詭計的這種人的話 對他是不利的 第四個因素就是這本書裡面 它其實涉及到的人 他不僅僅是一些退休的高官 他其實也涉及到了很多現任的 比如說剛才我們已經有提到的是吧 像習近平王岐山 還有習近平的這個 就是算是他的親信陳希等等這些人 還有胡春華等等這些人 這些都是現任的 而且很有可能他們在 這個即將到來的20大 可能他們都是有一些安排 就是有一個人事布局在裡面 如果說這本書裡面 對他們其實很多一些不利的這種新聞 要是被披露出來被曝光的話 那麼就有可能會影響到 這些人的這種前程 它可能會引發政治局內部的一個變動 甚至嚴重一點說 很有可能會引發整個20大 人事的這種布局 整個它可能都會因此而發生改變的 這個可能它就相當於打亂了 習近平的一個打算一樣 這個對他來說 它就是更大的一個威脅 他是不願意看到的 所以這本書我覺得 就是無論是對大陸的是吧 就是我們華人吧 就是比較瞭解中共的這種政治生態的 還是對西方人他們普遍其實對中共 因為中共長期都是暗箱操作 他們基本上不太清楚這個 就是中共高層內部 是怎麼一種運作的方式 我覺得這本書其實它還是有 滿大的一種這種參考價值 它讓人看到了中共內部 哪怕只是一個局部 但是它也可以讓很多人就是說 可以讓很多人可以知道 就是中共內部他們的這種運作 往往是超出我們一般人的想像的對 是我想這本《紅色賭盤》 大概值得大家如果有興趣 這個未來都可以來閱讀 那很多人都喜歡罵說習近平草包 習近平這個在整個執政的過程當中 讓全世界與中國為敵 那我們在最近看到他有這個有強調 他說這個總想過太平的日子 不想鬥爭是不切實際的 要丟掉幻想要勇於鬥爭 在原則問題上寸步不讓寸土不讓 當然我們不知道他意指什麼 但顯然戰鬥性格又上來了 這個不免讓我們想像 在他主政的過程當中 所謂的戰狼的外交 這邊習近平談的 所謂的丟掉幻想勇於鬥爭 其實大概有人就回想起在1949年 毛澤東也曾經說過 丟掉幻想準備鬥爭 有人說他難道必須在20大前 他為了要鞏固他確定可以再連任 他要這個推動中國新一波的 所謂的再毛化的運動 是嗎這聽起來是還滿嚇人的 這部分我們也請教一下唐老師 唐老師針對這個部分 您又怎麼分析呢 這個事情我是這麼看的 就是我個人的看法 我認為習近平 他在接下來的這段時間之內 就是未來的這段時間 他會確定要做的幾件事情 首先第一件就是我們基本可以確定 習近平他現在達成連任 基本是沒有什麼懸念的 所以我們就可以預見 就是在習近平他當前所做的 這種政策的一個整體的 他不是在左轉嗎 他甚至會越來越走向 極左的這種趨勢 這個大的趨勢不會變 當然在這個過程之中 可能他會局部的 就是說他根據情況是吧 比如說反對的這種聲音太大了 他可能會稍微地調整一下 或者是做做樣子 但是大的這種在一個相當 我們可以預見 至少在他下面這個任期10年 未來這個10年任期之內 這個越來越左的 走向極左這個趨勢他是不會變的 他一定會往那個方向走 第二個就是他肯定要做的事情 我覺得是習近平 他自己都已經公開說了 要麼就是在他的有生之年 如果說要是快一點的話 是在他的就是下一個任期之內 他要就是所謂的收復台灣 也就是要武力攻台 因為現在這個我們誰都非常清楚是吧 就是要通過和平的方式 所謂來達成兩岸的統一 這種可能性基本是已經不存在了 所以這個是習近平 他要做的第二件事情 他要在他的下一個任期之內 或者說是就是快的話 他會要達到武力攻台 那麼他就會帶來一個最大的問題 就是在我看來 他最高的風險 很有可能就是下一個5年 也就是說主要就是這個 跟美國總統有關係了是吧 我們大家都看到這次拜登 他在這個阿富汗撤軍表現出來的這種 這種就是完全是沒有一個計畫 也沒有這種能力 就是可以說是 非常混亂的這麼一個失敗 那麼這樣一來 其實甚至包括連美國的盟友 很多都會認為拜登基本上可以說就是 最無能最軟弱的一個美國總統 基本上是這樣 但是這個對習近平來說 它其實可能會產生一個作用 就是會刺激他會鼓勵他 就是會讓他覺得自己遇到了 他經常所說的那個叫做戰略機遇期 尤其是在現在他們可能綜合衡量是吧 一方面這個疫情 我們看到美國的疫情 一直居高不下是吧 這個疫情它可以說是 重創了美國的國力 同時又遇上了這麼一個可以說是 最軟弱無能的這麼一個總統 再加上這個現在的美國 所謂這些盟友吧 尤其是這次阿富汗事件以後 都表現出來對美國的一種 有一些離心力在裡面 所以我覺得習近平他可能認為 在未來的這段時間 可能是他最好的一個機會 也就是說不管怎麼說吧 是確定了習近平他就是 就是要武力攻台 這個是習近平他認為 他在有生之年的一個 他必須要拿到的所謂豐功偉蹟 這個是他已經明確地 在19大就有提出來的 這是他第二件確定要做的事情 第三個就是我們可以看到習近平 他現在是越來越非常不掩飾的 毫不掩飾的就是把自己想要取代美國 要重置整個世界秩序的這種格局 這個所謂的鬥爭剛才你提到的 他要把它進行到底了 也就是說從某種意義上講 習近平他其實現在他想要打一場 非常規的世界大戰 這種世界大戰它和以前不太一樣 以前都是明刀明槍的 就是炮火連天 他現在是打一種就是 就是他們自己所說的那種超限戰 那麼在這種情況之下 他其實就是要讓整個大陸 逐漸地進入到一種 準戰時的這種軌道 剛才我們其實有提到他在各方面是吧 這個在收緊在輿論在這個經濟 尤其是對經濟的產業 他是有意識地進行一種 甚至是不惜是自傷自殘式的這種調整 他為什麼這麼多的動作 我覺得這背後最主要凸顯出來 就是他寧可現在受一些損失 他要盡快地把整個這個國家 轉入到一種相當於是戰時的 這樣嚴格管制的這個軌道上面去 他要為將來一旦他武力攻台 他必然就會遭遇到 全世界最嚴厲的制裁和封殺 那麼他就不得不進入到全面的 就是完全閉關鎖國的 內循環的這麼一種狀態中去 他現在在為這種最壞的情況做準備 這個是我覺得他要做的第三件事情 第四件事情就是剛才提到的 就是他在這個講話裡面毫不掩飾 他已經說了 我們現在這個太平日子就不要再想了 接下來大家要做好這種鬥爭的準備 他在說什麼其實我看來 他實質上是等於宣布說 這個資產階級的自由化 或者說是叫做 市場經濟的自由化的這種時代 也就是說在鄧小平時代 還有一定程度的自由是吧 資產階級也好市場經濟也好 這個時代已經結束了 從現在開始起 習近平他要把整個社會 逐步地要轉入到 全面的政治專政的這種時代 這種時代就是剛才 就是宏林兄您提到的 可能大家把它叫做「再毛化」 就是他表現出來越來越傾向於 怎麼好像是要回到毛澤東那種時代 其實我覺得他在這種趨勢上面 因為他往極左在走嘛 會讓大家有一種熟悉的感覺 我覺得習近平他這種專政 他所希望的專政 他還不同於毛澤東 這個文革之中的那種 大規模的失去了秩序的這種 就是整個社會的大面積的這種動亂 他不想要這樣的模式 他想要的是什麼 他想要的就是由他這個當政者 可以嚴格所控制的 精準打擊式的這種專政 他是這一種也就是說最終 其實要進入到一個比較超大號的 像朝鮮這樣的一種模式了 我們可以看到朝鮮 現在是一種什麼模式呢 朝鮮從某種程度上講 它確實有點像文革 就是他最高領導人是把這個黨魁 他享有一種絕對一尊的 絕對是一言九鼎的 沒有任何人敢反對的 這種獨裁的模式 但是朝鮮他又沒有出現這種大規模的 像文革那樣的這種社會的動亂 這一點我覺得可能是 習近平他比較嚮往的 他非常想自己能夠達到 就像金三胖一樣的這種 這種至高無上的地位 同時整個社會又牢牢地 都控制在他的手上 不至於說出現像毛澤東當年那樣的 整個社會全亂套是吧 政府都幾乎是處於 癱瘓的這麼一種狀態 也就是說在有序的這種控制之下 所以這種文革我可以把它 我把它叫做就是一種「柔性文革」 就是說習近平我們可以說他其實是 的確是在有點像複製這種再毛化 就是像毛澤東的文革 這樣去進行一個演變 但是這種文革它是一種可控的 一種漸進式的柔性文革 所以我們可以把它叫做 就是習近平式的文革對 是我想剛剛唐老師很清楚了 針對幾個面向幫我們分析 這段期間中國或者我們談到的是中共 或者是我們談到的習近平 顯然在做一個很大的紅色賭注 不只是針對中國內部進行許多的 我們認為更毛化的這些作為 甚至我們也明顯地感受到 他不只是對中國內部 他甚至對世界上都伸出了手爪 每次他都會罵這個國外長臂管轄 事實上中國藉由經濟崛起之後 長臂管轄的領域更不會少 其實我們也很擔心啦 美國尤其特別剛剛唐老師有提到 這個拜登到底是不是真的有覺醒 這內部大概就後續有許多 我們所擔憂的一些發展 再次感謝我們唐靖遠老師 接受我們的訪問 那就再一次謝謝老師 好謝謝 謝謝宏林兄謝謝朋友們

2021-09-20 20:21

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