Friends, I welcome you to review the weekend. Let's look at what changes have occurred in, as well as globally, what disposition and what movements will arise in the near future in connection with the new, designated by the terrible word inflation. so let's start with calendars. First we went to last week's growth of active drilling rigs according to Baker Hughes. This is quite obviously due to the fact that there are logistical problems in the United States that were associated with the oil pipeline at the moment, this value is, from my point of view, overestimated and it does not correspond to the level of oil prices that has resisted at the moment. so as soon as the situation stabilized with oil if it is of course stabilized, we see here a corrupt rollback to 320 300. Ideally if there is no rollback here it means that really there so to speak forces who are interested in high oil prices are taking active steps to prices oil both keep and drive higher. followed by aluminum by aluminum. so far there is no
significant change in the range of 3-4 thousand flank positions. and I draw your attention to the fact that these are all the positions of the comics of American speculators. as of tuesday which is recorded is displayed on friday. that is, they come with some temporary delayed flag. but even despite this, next week, in most cases, in a certain way and significantly affect the fact that the movement of quotations is carried out in the direction of changing these very positions. but again, I draw your attention not always, this all happens unambiguously in the direction in which the change occurred.
and the current situation is fraught with the fact that sounding the alarm about the fact that grow much logistics transportation costs. but already all reasonable limits. and baltika dredges and other relevant indices of the cost of the sea franc, both containers for transportation in bulk and liquid for transportation and tankers, here it is just a step some kind of hell starts to happen. so friends
in general, the schedule of the baltic and the monthly rate here we have the most interesting starts somewhere in the 99th 2000 year. Indeed, if we now look at the current situation, then this situation turns out to be very tense, it is tense due to the fact that there was a significant collapse, then a significant increase and already now we have gone far beyond those values that correspond to the normal state of affairs. if we consider the historical perspective, let's say the 99th year of 2000, when certain changes took place that turned the world economy in general, the way of life in the direction in which we have already reached and continue to move, respectively, here we get a picture that this index should be in the range of one and a half two thousand already at the moment it has reached 3 thousand well, it has sunk a little. but this is not critical. here what is noteworthy are all these movements that they arose, sharp movements in the index, they then led to the development of some kind of collapse of some unpredictable situations. so it was in 2008, when he was driven by almost 12 thousand . so it was in other periods of time that preceded it. Well, now the current situation
is fraught with the fact that economic growth is killed, he is killed by the fact that the prices for raw materials have increased significantly and that transport costs have increased significantly. thus, in the near future, it is time to expect either a corruption rollback in raw materials or, accordingly, the opposite will happen. the next scenario is because all this growth that has occurred in logistics costs in oil in the middle will completely destroy economic growth by autumn by October . Well, you say how to live how
to live how to be. because the modern world is tied to the issue of money and there is no getting away from it. but we have a wonderful instrument. currency, you can inflate a bubble on them, just before settling there are no obstacles there are no restrictions and, accordingly, a completely logical move is brewing here.
this is blowing bubbles in the ridge I think in the near future we will see a significant increase in loans. this will be due to the fact that gradually people are beginning to understand not only the people, not only ordinary people but also officials from the FRS from the American government that when they print money, the purpose of printing money is, conventionally speaking, printing. that is, this does not mean that they take a roll and tear off new bills. it means providing various instruments, various types of monetary support, surety checks and so on. accordingly,
that is, when the money is printed, it led to the fact that with this money they bought some kind of service, released some kind of service, bought some kind of product, released some kind of product. Well, of course, on the contrary, they first released them and then bought them, and then the money, it was as good as possible, it fulfilled its function; it must be hidden somewhere so that it does not hang out in the market. because if she hangs out in the market after she has stimulated this action, she begins to cause just this very worst deadly inflation. before there were attempts to dispose of funds that have already worked out their activity in terms of creating economic growth. this is where the mortgage bubble was inflated . that is, here, as it were, money that
went to the market to stimulate economic growth, that is, let's say monetary credit policy established in such a way that generates an excess of money, these funds are here either in real estate or in specially invented various perverted instruments, including those related to real estate ... this led to the name of the bubble and the bubble burst. but look really how a bubble is born. that is, there is some kind of demand. what is important to people is what people need in this matter, the movement of funds begins.
If there is excess funds, as it was on the eve of the 2008 crisis, then, accordingly, we will get such a movement. but real estate is needed for life, it is needed for life, it is needed as fixed assets for organizing production, if it is commercial real estate, industrial warehouse, if it is a commercial office, then to accommodate clerks of office employees, and so on. and therefore this is an asset that, if it starts to rise in price due to the inflow of funds, it worsens the situation of the economy and ultimately creates such a situation. any asset it is bought is sold to the seller, there are a lot of buyers, fewer and then the whole dialogue takes place and the economy collapses, that is, in fact, this process. there is nothing terrible here, nothing terrible has gone on at all this stage because in 2008, when these chemical experiments with excess money supply began, the crisis was simply flooded and flooded.
that is, they did not make any serious structural changes, they simply said yes to blowing bubbles in the real estate market is bad and that's it. but the principles and mechanisms themselves have not changed and therefore we have come to this current situation. now at the moment. they are actively trying to stir up the economy to restart it globally. The problem is that there are no new markets, that is, every time there is a significant change in the way of life, it should be formed. after realizing that the
wind direction has changed, the sails have changed , a new market should be formed. so it was at all times of internal combustion engines computers internet and now decided to invent green technologies. green technologies are gradually being rebuilt, but until such huge financial and production flows go that would launch the economy and we find ourselves in a situation where at a crossroads when there is money that should stimulate but there is too much of this money, they cannot pass into the channel that should swing the economy. and so all this wonderful effect
arises - a significant rise in inflationary costs. what solution is possible here all this magical money supply that has fulfilled its task, it as a guild must go somewhere. it is necessary to sterilize the ideal credit facility. while the loan is not needed in order
to live now and the interest is actively played out, this interest is really connected with objective reasons so that in fact it is, in general, a new round of human development, no matter how they treat it, they did not try to stifle it, they did not predict its sluggishness and vanishing ... but someday it collapsed on the air and will cost zero. but first I think they are fulfilling their task of mega bubbles because the ridge is not needed for life, unlike real estate, unlike oil.
and therefore there it is ideal to go there all this economy that is printed when parking. but this is to the question of what kind of movement will be carried out here. that is, in the near future, either there is a drive in the Baltic region, a corruption rollback and a return of 500 thousand, this is most, let's say, a comfortable cost so that there is no inflation and then hyperinflation, or if such a movement continues, it will lead to a collapse and then possibly hyperinflation like it will all seem fantastic, incredible, but it may well happen. accordingly, if there is a downward movement, then I think it is very likely. in any case, they will most likely inflate to the ridge. but if the outflow from the main assets that were pumping starts and at the same time there will be no economic growth at all. I
think this will be a criterion for the fact that very large financial flows either have entered or will continue to enter or will continue to go exactly into corruption in which to the Beethoven ridge while he probably won back his movement on the approach of the air and on the way all kinds of arrests that will artificially inflate like us have seen the example to which the mask to pump up in a matter of days and months. I in no way urge anyone to drop everything and start driving everything into a turnip. everyone has their own head on their shoulders and everyone makes their own decisions. I just
indicated the paths of development and the movement of capital and resources that may well be drawn here. and such a movement, it is the most logical from my point of view, can occur in the very near future. And so there is still such an interesting point of view that is stated that we are on the verge of a new raw material cycle and, accordingly, in this case, this is explained by the ratio of the prices of oil products to a high technological index. but here a certain index is taken to the so-called Serbia index and, accordingly, on the way to start a new mega powerful raw material super cycle. if we follow this logic, then here we just get a movement that will lead to an even more powerful conditional growth of copper nickel oil and so on. By the
way, this is also quite a possible scenario that there will be no rollback either in raw materials or in the Baltic. and we will see further growth. the fact is that history never repeats itself. the whole problem of human perception of
reality, including financial markets and stock markets, is that. history does not repeat itself. Yes, there are certain points that are similar, there are certain points that tend to reappear. but in general, the movement is always unique. every time it is reproduced taking into account the specifics of what is in the yard. And if you believe
this picture, then we are on the verge of some magical new rebound from the commodity super cycle that will lead to an increase in commodity prices. at the same time, everything in essence will grow in price . in reality, this will mean either very strong inflation or even hyperinflation. but it means in relation to cash and, accordingly, all assets. that is, people will look at all assets because money will lose very much in value and the effect of the Weimar Republic will arise when if you did not buy shares in gold, oil, real estate in the morning, or something else in the evening, your money depreciated. This sounds extremely fantastic, an extremely gimmick, but taking into account the fact that this graph shows the emergence of a new raw material cycle, while in order for economic growth to start, raw materials need to be cheap.
it can just lead to such a fantastic inflation if this scenario is realized to the ridge, it can also pull for the company very much, but in general, it will not pull everything at all, even there is some kind of felt boot that is probably sold and traded somewhere . but the essence of such a movement will be that money will rapidly depreciate and people will buy everything. and it is just such a movement that it will become a completely fair reckoning for the financial and economic policy that has been carried out, one can say since 73. and if we look at it
more closely and let's say the use of less balanced began somewhere in the zero years. so friends. but back to ours. what is happening here but for copper are now trying to slightly from the prices of key levels for copper, I announced. you can look at the previous issues, respectively, if they are bit, then this will lead to the fact that copper can be significantly corrected. in fact, the time has come for this . but since bubbles can be inflated, this
process cannot occur. And here now everything is in the hands of either the central bank, including the Federal Reserve System, which can take very drastic measures in order to relieve the situation or some kind of crash event that can suddenly occur, for example, in China. so friends gave the oil but the oil side remains. If, by the way, it is about oil and is considering the schedule starting from the early 90s of the bearded years, then we will see that here the potential of bubble 2 for oil has not really been exhausted, there is something to strive for. this is 94 and then 110 and then
rewrite the historical high. but here, since there are no candles, but the line is displayed 140, in fact, 147 and a half was a historical high. so that the current policy of infusions, if it persists, it willy-nilly dragged upward, including oil. But the problem here is that all the same events, although it may happen in the next six months, is either some kind of cardinal decision of the FRS to combat growing inflation, or some kind of event. in the same China, which will be due to the admissible bankruptcy of a large company due to the fact that raw materials have grown significantly and the company does not know what to do, how it is permissible for it to pay on bonds or somehow fulfill obligations.
so friends. but if we consider the dynamics of position changes with strong comic speculators and the movement of the weekly chart, then it is clearly indicated that we have entered the consolidation, that is, the fee, and in the near future this situation should be resolved by going upward or both and inflating a bubble. the first goal of the movement will be 94 or some kind of coalition rollback to the prime minister somewhere in the area 56 comes to my mind. here is a slightly different quote because it was not a brand. if we still rely on positions that show a decline, then the coming week will bring us a new mat on oil.
and, accordingly, the court and to a greater extent indicates that the oil output will be down. but those processes that are now taking place and where it is heading. they still indicate that they will try to bring oil upward like all other commodities. and here, as it seems to me, human nature has not changed for many centuries for some time, we are accustomed to the fact that it works very effectively with bubbles and still saves. and it is possible that this movement will continue here until the last until some event occurs. and therefore, judging by this logic, the judge is destined for a further downward movement for oil . I beg your pardon made a reservation. friends further. then, with regard to the
position on gold on gold, an upward movement began. the previous ones indicated that gold is in the sideways, in fact, always some kind of growth is preceded by some kind of certain accumulation, including in hundredths. Accordingly, the current change in positions with strong comics indicates that it is highly likely that the gold movement will continue upward in the coming week. here an important factor is that when there is an excess money supply, it will be parked somewhere. one way or another it will affect this and gold, especially since gold has kept the level of 1800, this is very significant because now, since it has shown its strength in the coming week, it is very likely that it will either sideways or still an attempt to go to 1864. friends further silver on silver the situation is such that there is silver where to strive.
metal on the one hand on the other hand is needed for green technologies. and now, taking into account the more the ratio of the price of gold and silver, it is likely to be pulled upward. and perhaps even more energetically than gold. the current change in position indicates that in the coming week silver may even end at 30. it may hang out in the bq century, but here still more factors indicate further growth. so on the fret got the situation
came to a corrupt rollback. here, both the price itself and the flanking positions of speculators indicate that platinum will be a little bit lowered from the skies along the fret . здесь ситуация аналогична с падением они друг друга повторяют дублируют только там есть такой момент когда ладе начинает стагнирует нередко начинает платина. в эти моменты расти. друзья далее. британский фунт паунд но здесь очень серьезная заявка на продолжение роста британского фунта против доллара то есть вполне вероятно что мы на предстоящей неделе возможно даже увидим попытку сходить на 43 канадский доллар против американского.
здесь тоже все пузыри изготавливается на рост. ну и конечно евро доллар но здесь на самом деле тоже ставка на рост но здесь она такая более осторожные в отличие от британского фунта и канадского доллара. то есть спекулянты ставят на то что евро против доллара на предстоящей неделе будет укрепляться и японская йена по японской шорты практически не поменялись. то есть японская йена она
на предстоящей неделе возможно в этом пока веке так и будет находиться. но здесь я обращаю внимание здесь на графики обратная котировки то есть не 100 йен с наоборот здесь сколько сколько. один доллар стоит и так далее. швейцарский франк про который меня в свое время спрашивают я практически никогда не упоминаю здесь спекулянты делают ставку на снижение швейцарского франка хотя до этого он показывал рост но на самом деле с моей точки зрения субъективно это не та валюта которой стоит привязываться почему она несет в себе очень высокие традиционные издержки связанные с обменом туда сюда и использованием этой валюты. поэтому я вообще бы достаточно прохладно отношусь к швейцарскому франка ну и не особо к фронту. по той же причине но швейцарский франк здесь еще больше возникает издержки при проведении каких либо денежных операций с ним. и поэтому я его особо даже не рассматриваю. имеется в виду конечно
не комиссия на максе а ситуация когда возможно потребуется как либо его использовать либо активы швейцарских франков во что то другое переводить так друзья далее индекс доллара здесь ставка на то что он немножко будет расти. но мне кажется здесь кто то либо с жиру риски либо погорячился так и бетховен здесь по сути шатова и ставка. но я так думаю здесь просто кто то под жируют бетховен и поэтому реальной картины в данном случае не отображает. так друзья. ну и далее рубль по рублю здесь движения нету. но на самом деле даже те движения которые до этого были там 6 7 5 тысяч это для того чтобы определиться с направлением абсолютно не критично исходя из того что сохраняется положение вокруг нуля можно сделать вывод что в паре рубль доллар никто ставку на значительный рост доллара против рубля не делает несмотря на тот трэш который.
происходит на российской бирже. так друзья но давайте сразу тогда по позиции на ммвб и ртс здесь сделали ставку на то что ртс в понедельник будет отказываться и корректироваться вниз втб. здесь ставка на рост действительно как втб оно должно ли вас что взять потому что те цели которые еще остались вверху они далеко не все сделаны и ближайшая цель 6 копеек если мы держимся в районе пяти копеек то очень быстро может произойти движение на 6 7 копеек. сбербанк здесь также ставка на рост. газпром также ставка на рост поэтому есть определенные раскрываться с тем что ртс и ртс в долларах. так норильский никель здесь ставка на то что норильский никель будет председатель. на самом деле текущая ситуация в палате никеля и меди она не такая оптимистичны для норильского никеля на предстоящую неделю лукойл ставка на то что лукойл в понедельник будет отказываться вниз рубль доллар ставка на укрепление рубля евро рубль здесь ставка на укрепление рубля и против евро. евро доллар здесь ожидают и
нефть. опять же диссонанс получается по нефти юрий ждут роста по сути. но на самом деле эта ставка она работает понедельник либо первую половину дня суд она более долгоиграющий. и здесь ставка на то что нефть погонят возможно даже на 70 серебро. здесь
ставка на отскок и на рост серебра золота здесь тоже ставка на рост золота и соответственно возможно уже с утра мы увидим движение на 1854 друзья все основные инструменты. спасибо за внимание если вам понравилось. подписывайтесь на наш канал. хороших выходных до свидания.
2021-05-16