Welcome to FacingFuture.TV! I am Raya Salter. According to a new study released this week, climate change is causing widespread and irreversible impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has found that up to 3.6 billion people live in areas highly vulnerable to climate change and there are limits to what we can do to adapt. This is what the UN Secretary General is calling an ‘Atlas of Human Suffering’.
With us to discuss this alarming new report is Dr. Debora Ley, a lead author of the IPCC report, a climate change specialist and an Officer with the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. She's joining us today from Guatemala. Welcome Dr. Ley! >>>Well, thank you very much, Raya, for this invitation! Thank you for the audience who is listening and thank you for the interest in this report. >>>Yes, this is an incredible, incredibly alarming new report and I understand the most detailed report on the impacts of global warming that we've seen to date. What does this report tell us about how the climate crisis is impacting us now… is it much worse than we thought? >>>Well, what we… what the report says is that the impacts that we are seeing now will continue to worsen, as global warming levels continue to increase, so the impacts we are seeing now… we can expect to continue seeing them in the coming years.
And in August we have the Working Group I report on the physical science basis of climate change which had also indicated that the climate impacts we've seen... most of them can be attributed to climate change [all right] caused by human actions. Yes, so basically what - you know - we can say when you combine the results of Working Group I and Working Group II is that the impacts we are facing now have a direct relationship with human action. >>>All right! So, I understand that in 2019 alone, more than 13 million people were displaced in Asia and Africa, and that roughly half of the world's population suffers water scarcity for at least part of the year. So, help us understand: We're at about a 1.1 percent increase in global temperatures now and we need to
avoid 1.5 degrees. How much time do we have to act? >>>So, the question can be divided in several parts: one of them is, of course, dealing with emissions reduction and that will come out in a month, so the IPCC’s Working Group III report on mitigation comes out in a month, and they will have a more detailed assessment on emissions. But on the side of adaptation, as you have already clearly indicated, different impacts like the drought that many people are already facing, we have a suite of adaptation options that are feasible in the short term, which is from now until we reach 1.5 degrees C. The SPM figure 4 has a feasibility assessment of these options across six dimensions, for example - you know - what are the economic… economics of implementing an option? What is the cost effectiveness or the technologies? Are they mature? Are they easily available? Or social cultural issues… what do they tell us about intergenera… intergenerational equity and gender... and gender equity? So, we can look at how these different adaptation options can be implemented, and the different regional and sectoral chapters also point us in some cases to their effectiveness. But something that is very clear is that those options are feasible NOW, but in five years or in 10 years, they might not be, because, as you said in the beginning, we might reach limits, and limits means that an ecosystem can suffer irreversible changes for which no adaptation measure can work. >>>So, what I'm hearing you say
that this report is sending a very sharp warning: if temperatures keep rising, there's not much we'll be able to do to fight these impacts and it will cause human dislocation on a global scale. Can you help us understand more about these hard limits that we can't escape? How does the report come to this conclusion? >>>So hard limits... if you look at figure 3 on the burning embers, you can see how there are these vertical bars that show different types of ecosystems, for example, warm water coral reefs or mangroves, and when you look at the colors of the bars: white means that there's no visible impact, yellow that there is some impact that is reversible for which adaptation options exist, red is that there are many impacts and if temperatures stop increasing, adaptation options can… might still be able to work, and purple, which is the top part of it means that we are… we've already hit irreversible changes. So, if you look at this figure 3, you can see that in some regions some ecosystems have already reached a point of irreversibility, between 1 and 1.5, I think the most common example of irreversibility
is coral reefs. We won't be able to recuperate 100 percent of the coral reefs that have been lost, but there are other systems like the Arctic - you know - the melting of glaciers, some coastal fisheries - you know - populations that live in coastal areas that depend on artisanal fishing; or mangroves: some of those depending on the location are reaching the point where - you know - a couple more degrees, and, I mean, decimals of degrees, and we won't be able to apply adaptation measures, which is why it is so important to apply these adaptation measures. We have the opportunity right now to do it and to save lives and to save ecosystems. >>>So, we are already at the… past the point of more… of no return for some of our most precious ecosystems. You talked before about these different indicators: intergenerational equity and
adaptation, gender and adaptation. Could you tell us more about what is happening there and are we at the point of no return on those issues as well? >>>No, not of no return! So, what we looked at for every single adaptation option, and this is an extension of the work done in the special report on global warming at 1.5 degrees C, is the multi-dimensional feasibility assessment breaks down the assessment of each option in six dimensions and 19 indicators. We don't have sufficient evidence for all of the indicators, I mean, in some cases monitoring and evaluation is not done; in some cases, it's done looking at - you know - specific features, for example, economics or technology. We're trying to gather more information, more evidence on the part
of social cultural dimensions, but what is clear, what we are seeing now is that gender plays a huge role - you know - you always see the statement that women and children are more vulnerable, and that equity plays an important role in how we shape our future pathways, so these are areas in which definitely more evidence is needed. But what we are seeing is that when there is no gender equity or no intergenerational equity, then the feasibility of the option is lower, and the effectiveness can also be lower. >>>So, what I'm hearing is that we still have time, but if we don't impact and focus on women and children and intergenerational equity, we will be less effective in our ability to counter these impacts or adapt. >>>Yes, that is correct, and I think that's one of the core messages of the report. Moving on to figure 5 on climate resilient development pathways. That actually is underpinned by justice,
by equity, by - you know - bringing those most vulnerable to the table, to give them a voice, to include the most marginalized populations of how we can include indigenous populations and their knowledge; how can we use that - you know. One of the things that you'll see in figure 5, for example, is that to start with… to achieve climate resilient development, we are talking about integrating mitigation options that reduce emissions with adaptation options, that reduce risks, to achieve sustainable development. We and… although we mentioned sustainable development goals specifically, we want to make clear that this also goes beyond 2030. >>>Got it! So... >>>Sorry! Go ahead! >>>No, so while justice and fundamental fairness are clearly a part of this picture, it's also… I'm hearing an imperative that we focus on indigenous stewardship and other techniques that prioritize the most vulnerable. >>>Yes, so, as you can see, for example, in panel (a) of this figure we have what we call ‘arenas of engagement’, which are spaces in which civil society… in which people - you know - all of us citizens in this world can engage, whether it be political arenas, environmental arenas - you know - whether it's in a town hall with your elected government officials or whether it's in a protected area fighting for the rights of the populations living there or just to protect Nature because of a certain species, for example, those are the areas in which we can all participate. And what we
highlight in panel(a) is that societal choices are the drivers of how these pathways are chosen. So, it's not just up to government - you know - when we say that governmental policies don't work; it's that civil society, all of us, have a role - you know – like, for example, the role you have in disseminating this information, and in translating scientific terms into - you know - like guiding me how to break down this conversation, so it's more understandable. So, what you see in panel (a) is how these societal choices function to - you know - to determine which pathways we're going to… we're going to choose. So, in panel (b) you can see the different pathways and then in panel (c) you have two illustrative outcomes: one, in which you have equity and justice and environmental stewardship, which is what we all aim to, and I think besides the part of equity and justice and the arenas of engagement, there's two other really important messages tied to this: that we only have one decade in which to act, to achieve this transformation, because otherwise it will be too late, and the other message is that actions have to keep in mind both humans and Nature; we need to ensure a healthy Nature to ensure the well-being of humans. So, this is not just Nature and looking at Nature and seeing what services we can take from them or - you know - where it's useful to us, but just in protecting Nature because of what it is, we need a healthy planet, and we need healthy ecosystems in order to survive. >>>Tell me more about the role of ecosystems in adaptation and survival.
>>>So, thank you for this really important question! Adaptation, I mean, ecosystems give us multiple services. For example: water. If we don't protect forests, we don't have enough water sources, just as an example, or if we don't have correct agricultural practices, then we suffer problems of food insecurity and if you look, for example, at the wildfires that happened in California and all throughout the world in the last summers, you see that it doesn't only have a damage to the forest, but - you know - also all the wildlife that lived there - you know - all the biodiversity and all the other services we would get from forest. You can see that after you don't have forest fires, but then comes the rainy season and then you have these huge mudslides that you can… then the risks get compounded or multiplied, when you have vulnerable populations living nearby or populations that are already suffering from water drop, from water scarcity, so options that help - you know - like forest-based adaptation options or efficient irrigation or some agriculture… agroecology practices can help… can help us use Nature to adapt while - you know - helping us as humans adapt, but also helping the ecosystem adapt. So, for example, different types of forest protection and restoration also work. >>>So, again, as we've gone
beyond preserving and protecting Nature because of its inherent beauty and the dignity of life being an actual imperative. And let me ask one of the... another big piece of this report: who are the most vulnerable? And this study draws that scientific connection from global warming to extreme weather and other impacts much more directly than we've understood it before. So, who is it that is the most vulnerable and how can we tell? >>>Well, vulnerability is… the people most vulnerable, I know, we've always heard, and I said before, about women and children, elderly, but there's also people living in poverty, people living, for example, in unsafe conditions like in informal settlements or rural areas that lack basic services, that don't have radio communications systems, that - you know - can't access weather information or data or other type of climate services. Those are the people most
at risk, people living in isolated, precarious conditions. >>>Are there also regional - you know - intensities of impact. We understand that the Global South is going to experience climate crisis first and worse. What does that report tell us about that regional vulnerability? >>>Well, I think, in terms of regional vulnerability, definitely island nations and coastal areas are one of the most vulnerable, but also, we see areas in Africa, South Asia, Central America, parts of - you know - parts of North America areas where there's a lot of poverty, for example, also create a lot of vulnerability. >>>So, this one thing here is that it brings validity, or at least some hard evidence, to this concept of loss and damage, where many nations in the Global South have been pushing global elites in the wealthier countries to do more to compensate them for that irreversible loss and harm they will experience.
What can this… how can this report inform this concept of loss, disproportionate and irreversible loss and damage? >>>Yeah, so, in the summary for policymakers you can read about that in Section C3, but what we're basically saying is that loss and damage is more than just impacts; it's systems or knowledge that are or - you know - like in some cases, cultures that we can't get back, like - you know - when we talk about limits, when you reach a hard limit, you have a loss - you know - like with the coral reefs, with part of different - you know - when people have to evacuate and migrate and you're leaving your culture and your history behind. That's the loss. And losses, and damages are not always economic and that's something that we also need to keep in mind. You can't always quantify monetarily, because some are - you know - how do you put a price on losing an ecosystem or all the species extinct - you know - like when you lose a species and especially now, when we're talking about losing a species due to climate change - you know - so we also need to keep in mind that there are non-economic losses. >>>There's no price to put on something so precious as ecosystems and biodiversity in life itself. How does the… help me understand how is it that the science can draw ties between what's happening in the atmosphere and what's happening on the ground? Any particular tornado or particular event? >>>So, that's a science called ‘attribution’ in which different models are run. That's more of Working Group I, so I don't run those models.
I couldn't explain more of that, but for those interested you can look at attribution studies, in which you take an event and they basically do modeling of how this event would look like without human interference. >>>All right! Is it fair to say that this study has used the most sort of up-to-date attribution and thus is help - you know - is the sort of latest science on how we can understand attribution in a more direct way? >>>Yes, so Working Group I was like the most recent up-to-date study on the science of it and Working Group II results also take into account Working Group I findings. >>>Got it! >>>So, like in the different projections we do like in the burning embers figure 3 of the summary for policy makers, you can see those are also results that took in Working Group I findings. >>>Got it! In this analysis, in this situation, are there any nations or peoples that are spared from the climate crisis? >>>No! Each region will be impacted. >>>Yeah, each region...>>>You gave me [unclear] like… NO! >>>Sorry for being so stark, but no, I mean, every country even - you know - when you talk about Global North, for example, you can see in the United States, different countries of Europe, the levels of devastation that there are because of wildfires, because of floods, so, yeah, sadly 'NO', which is why it's even more important to stress that we have this small window of opportunity to act, and we can't lose time. >>>This is… another conclusion from this report is that we're simply not doing enough; we're failing to act on climate and as the Secretary General said, we are getting clobbered by climate change.
>>>Yes, and I think, right now we can say that - you know - the window of opportunity for implementing adaptation options will close, as long as global warming levels keep increasing, so it again emphasizes the point of where mitigation and adaptation need to come… need to come together. But... Yeah, one other thing - you know - when we talk about - you know - even implementing adaptation that we can't just do more of what we've been doing, so there's clearly an adaptation gap between the needs, adaptation needs, and what we have on the ground, and, of course, on financing, the most of which is going to emissions reductions projects, but also that we can't keep doing adaptation as we currently do it… we… in some cases we need to help change the attributes of a system, so, for example, there are some examples of communities that used to - you know - their main income, their livelihood source, was in agriculture. Now their land is not - you know - is not able to sustain crops, and some of them have changed to either growing flowers or ecotourism to show that - you know - to show people the devastation of climate change, and that is more what we call ‘transformational’, because it makes people change their way of life - you know - it's like you have to train again; you have to study new things - you know - learn new things. It's not the same as selling - you know - whether it be rice or corn,
to flowers or even ecotourism, and how you deal with tourists - you know - so those are the types of changes that we will need to see more in the coming years. The other major transformation that the report also points out in trying to achieve climate resilient development pathways is what we call ‘system transitions’, so we cannot work in sectors anymore as we've been doing, and this is a concept that came out of the special report on global warming at 1.5, but basically, when we work at a systems level, we can better integrate mitigation and adaptation options; we can better take advantage of the synergies and reduce the trade-offs, because we all know that there are mitigation options that increase… increase vulnerability. But there are also adaptation options that can increase emissions - you know - so where do we come with that balance to ensure no one is left behind, to ensure we're not exacerbating poverty, to ensure that everybody is sure to ensure that we have equity, that we're not endangering food security, for example. >>>What does it mean to work on a systems, a - you know - on a systems level on these transitions? What does it mean? What does the report recommend? >>>So, for example, we have… the biggest system transition right now is on land, oceans, and ecosystems, basically bringing together food, water, forest, oceans, coastal areas - you know - recognizing that whatever action you take in a forest can impact agriculture, or vice versa. Actions that you take to…
for agriculture can impact forests, can impact the water supply, but that same water supply can impact cities or rural settlements; and can impact the way we use or generate energy. So, what we need to see now is that there is an interconnectedness with everything. >>> [That's...] So how… what is mal… this idea of maladaptation - you know - I heard you speak to... there are things that we can do as we're trying to adapt with short-term thinking but could actually make things worse. What is this idea of maladaptation and why is it such a problem? >>>Well, mal adaptation happens sometimes because we aren't planning correctly, because we don't take everybody into consideration - you know - everybody of the population that's at risk, because we don't have enough funding, because we - you know - in some cases we have found that there are sustainable development or poverty alleviation projects that are mislabeled as ‘adaptation’, and while they can reduce poverty to some segment of the population, they don't reduce vulnerability in general, and that's a problem. And, I think, one of the examples that we listed,
for example, of sea walls and in coastal areas how - you know - if properly done, it can reduce vulnerability, but in some cases, they can actually hurt Nature's... ...sea walls, can work against Nature's own ability, and that - in some cases - it has gone to mal- adaptation. Sometimes, for example, not taking into consideration indigenous populations and indigenous knowledge, so that's something we need to be aware of. >>>Can technology get us out of this problem?
>>>I'm...not always… I think, technology is an enabler. I think technology - I think - technology helps, and we need to know how to use it, I mean technology - you know - especially when we talk, for example, about climate services and how climate information is shared, and yes, there are some technologies that can help us, but technologies alone can't do the job, because - you know - together - you know - now that I'm talking about enablers, you brought out a really important point that we have all this - you know - the suite of adaptation options, but they can be effective and they can be feasible, but, for example, if we don't have technology, if we don't have robust institutions, if we don't have strong governance structures, if we don't have appropriate knowledge systems and monitoring and evaluation, then they won't be as effective or as feasible. >>>But that's incredibly helpful. I'm… am I correct that a lot of these 3.6 billion people the report talks about who are really under threat are in cities
and what is the role of cities in this solution? >>>Well, cities play a really important role, because it is predicted that almost 70 percent of the global population will be living in cities in the next coming years, so cities play an important role, and I think that… well, I mean, the report states that adaptation options within cities are important - you know - how to include - for example - green infrastructure of how you can bring in more of Nature of greening areas, how to deal with the heat island effect; how to ensure you have - you know - resilient infrastructure, not just in buildings or roads, but like energy. How to keep your energy systems working and telecommunication systems, so it is very important for urban settings - you know - for cities, for informal settlements, and also for rural populations. >>>It's so… this is interesting as well, because as I understand we have this really short window to act and it's so important on many levels because, as you mentioned, for instance, we need to address urban heat islands and have green infrastructures and trees and if we don't act, impacts could actually accelerate to that near-term action not being effective. So, what it… tell me more about this window
and what should we be doing? >>>Well, the window is - you know - as I said, we need to start acting in the next decade - you know - these transformations of not working in sectors, but by system transition. We need to start doing that. We need to start looking at how mitigation actions can increase or decrease vulnerability - you know - that the sole objective is not reduce emissions or like obviously an adaptation case reduced vulnerability but keeping… ensure that - you know - the most vulnerable people are heard and the most marginalized. There's also other adaptation options that can help the most vulnerable populations, like social safety nets, public work programs, cash transfers, public health systems. I think the report right now for the first time mentions mental health that needs… that have to be addressed with each extreme weather event. So, it's not working on each option in isolation, and I think that the main message of
the special report of 1.5 - you know - saying that there isn't one single option that will get us to our goal - you know - that's really amplified here in that you can't use these options in isolation. For example, disaster risk management and climate services, early warning systems, can help enhance other adaptation options, whether in energy sector or in agriculture, and these other options of social safety nets also work throughout - you know - like having health systems. >>>This is really important. I'm understanding that
sustainable development, just sustainable development pathways, it's not just about - you know – people; should we need to help people because it's the right thing to do and those same people are going to be the first to be hit by climate crisis. It's that part of the answer, this system's transition and meeting basic needs is actually part of our climate adaptation, and I presume mitigation answer. >>>Yes, absolutely, and so when we stress about the window - you know - that it's narrowing is… if global warming levels keep increasing, the options that we will have, that we have available today, might not be available in five years or in ten years. This, I mean, the world we see today will not be the same world in 10 years. >>>If there's one, it's not the right question given the… given what we've been talking about systems change, but if there was one thing or one suite of things that you should say we need to do tomorrow: we need to start doing tomorrow… what would that be? >>>Wow, one thing! >>>Maybe it's to… not think about it as one thing, because maybe that would be the first thing… >>>Well, no, I think to read the report and to listen to this... to this recording,
but I think that we need to realize that - you know - civil society has a very important role. This is not just up to governments or scientists - you know - civil society has a very important role and, again, I'm focusing on panel (a) of figure 5 on the arenas of engagement; that's the space where everybody jumps in - you know - there are multiple places, there are multiple arenas, and we have a range of actors, we are all actors in this. >>>Dr. Ley at that ending with that because I can be… I think, very overwhelming to folks to hear this information and to realize that we really are the answer. And the first thing that we can do is get aware, I think, is very empowering and makes me feel optimistic. As much as we have such a short window. Thank you! >>>There is a ray of hope. There is a ray of hope. We have the decade! >>>A ray of hope, we have the decade, and we have to act now. Thank you so very much for joining us and thank you for joining us with FacingFuture.TV.
you
2022-03-08