friends greet you this morning review let's look at the current situation what news came out how they will affect the movement in the morning and during the day and see the technical analysis of the charts what interesting ideas for today so well as for the calendar of events for today the day promises to be very calm but as a rule, on such calm days, something starts to happen, no, but as for Russia today, data on operating activities for the driver and the board of directors of Rostelecom, but regarding this whole story, some kind of real hell has arisen the Czech Republic accuses of certain unseemly actions and now the development of the conflict has begun and the Pope now and the Czech Republic is noteworthy here is that the Czech Republic is Hungarian, these two sides are actually forpost of Russian policy in Europe, respectively, Hungary has already gradually withdrawn now they are withdrawing the Czech Republic are reducing the number of agents of influence lately we have encountered you with what is actually we can say recoilless e the rise in oil prices, someone there wondered that this was due to the fact that oil speculators began to gain a position, someone so that some regular unseemly agreements would come in terms of reducing the hidden reduction in production of the trusteeship side , but here the situation turned out to be quite simple I grew up the demand for oil why it has grown why no one initially assumed that such a scenario would develop well, everything is very simple as soon as the lock down ended, and yes now in Europe in some countries lock down and continue, but in general, the world has come out of this state to noticeable numbness and as soon as this numbness subsided massive lock down and the demand for gasoline passed, why because people have become larger; a significant share of oil consumption is just what is associated with gasoline diesel with car fuel firstly, whatever one may say, the world came out of a prominent hibernation is once and secondly in the western in the northern hemisphere summer is coming when scientists are actively moving around and against the background here of these factors, as well as against the background of the fact that a very powerful hurricane and the seasons of the United States of autumn are promising, we observe and have an increase in oil prices, respectively, there may of course be a corrective rollback, and given that a demand factor has arisen, it is most likely that these rollbacks are currently they will be redeemed and oil will either sideways or continue to climb again , unless a black swan appears a black swan in the form of some kind of default by a large hedge fund of a bank or, for example, significant oil consumption in china india due to the cooling of economic recovery, the reasons of course can be different in india, it is a raging kind in china, this mass of internal economic problems, in particular the possibility of a banking crisis, because the coding system is built there in a very outlandish way, so here we have a new factor of Iran's return to the oil market , there is an opinion that Iranian oil and it is not significantly will worsen oil prices and will not change the disposition on the oil market but We already heard something similar in 2014, and as soon as Iran jumped out to the market, a significant corrective rollback began immediately on oil, does it mean that in the near future the Iranian factor will significantly affect prices on it, I think not, but after some time it will be possible already this year, in November October, we can undoubtedly see that the Iranian factor caused a strong movement in the oil market, so friends, but here's another moment, green technologies are developing tirelessly and gradually they will certainly displace fossil energy sources oil in the first place and gas now is the current situation in oil, but in fact this is the so-called rebound of a dead cat when something has fallen heavily, it should rebound strongly before moving through oil in the near future, it will most likely be positive, but if you take a medium-term and long-term horizon, then, whatever one may say, there will be displacement in favor so-called renewable energy sources and all the necessary if already produced for this scheduled We are capital expenditures for the coming decades of the United States in Europe, and already, as it were, the whole mood, all plans are connected precisely with the green vector of development; at the moment, Western Europe has become the largest investor in the development of battery technology, just the movement of Volkswagen, which we recently observed, it was largely with this connected at the moment Western Europe occupies 43 percent here in this general chain are associated with the production of batteries and in such a scenario, taking into account the fact that all other technologies associated with electric vehicles, its mechanical device, the electric motor case, they have already been largely modified and brought to a certain more or less perfect state now all development it is used in the properties of rechargeable toray in europe, most likely I will bet on the development of so-called solid-state lithium batteries, maybe sodium batteries and, accordingly, this new technology, it will significantly increase energy intensity but so far it is very expensive, this circumstance, in the medium and long term, will have a negative impact on oil prices, that is, Europe, she saw what was happening, what vector of development of the world was going on and decided to lead it so friends, but now with regard to Russia, see the latest research carried out by analytical centers under the government of the Russian Federation show that there is a high likelihood that a systemic banking crisis will arise in the near future, well, if in fact you read the news and I'm sure you read them all the more in economics and listen, you noticed that lately there are a lot of licenses suspiciously banks are disappearing somewhere, this is precisely due to the fact that on the threshold most likely a systemic banking crisis in Russia, but also leading indicators that indicate what is happening in the economy, they froze a little and do not confirm that further recovery is coming, that is, it seems like a positive trend has been outlined but she is not fully rea lized and, accordingly, such a situation, it can lead to the fact that a rollback will occur, I wanted to draw attention to the fact that this whole situation by Western sanctions by pressure, and so on, it is not a fundamental reason, it is the cause of the initiator of a fundamental reason in the state of the Russian economy and under these external influences it is in it all processes will most likely begin to proceed more vigorously and faster so friends, let's move on to the baltic dry weekly timeframe, but here we are already close to marking a double top, the current situation on the indicator indicates that such a value leads to an increase in cost inflation, this is negative for economic growth and it is not going to roll back in the near future if we look at a deeper monthly timeframe and a period starting from 2006 2005, then in fact, from the point of view of such a global analysis, we have now come to those values that either will be broken and we will see a magical rally and takeoff baltic I'm dragging with all the not very good consequences that follow, or there will be a rebound from this value and, accordingly, it will go to one first target, the movement will be 1500 1700 here, this range, well, in 2008 there was such a powerful exit double top then a collapse and now we have come to a certain logical level which, if it is broken through, we will initiate the movement from here , the first target will be 5000 and then, accordingly, the movement to this transition is 11500 well, here if such a movement occurs, it is necessary to clearly understand that this will leave a very serious imprint on the cost of all goods and services, since most of the load fame they are translated by sea, so friends gave the American ten-year timeframe a week well, look here the situation is very interesting because all this movement it came to the conclusion that a reversal and rollback should occur here, the target of the rollback movement, but up to 135 first and then ideally go to one in general, but of course such a movement now As I suppose this will not happen, this is due to the fact that the money supply is in abundance and even if such a movement is likely to buy out very quickly and they will return somewhere here, either in this range 1 as much as 35 or more will go to test and try to take a height of 1.8, but here you need to understand that this is the whole movement that was growing in profitability, it is due to the fact that in general, bonds as an instrument, they gradually begin to lose their relevance, that is, in order to invest money and even save it, and even more so earn , taking into account inflationary growth, but bonds become the tool that is absolutely not suitable for this, because they grow slowly, they give a small yield, and while you keep money in bonds there are many more ideas, even not so dangerous ones, to make money so friends further Chinese stock index and website 300 last week everyone screamed horror-horror all china fell down did not fall down until at least it did not fall down I kept it at a strong level and, accordingly, while he is trading in this sideways, there will be nothing wrong with him if he goes to break through these values of 4950 4850 of this range, then yes, China will most likely add up while he is here, the longer he is here, the more the probability of movement to 5300 to china is a thing in itself there are very big credit problems associated with the state of the lending system, but at the moment no one is pushing it into the abyss so on snp 500 here, as it were, the picture speaks for itself, there is one solid rocket and when it is a rocket will turn around and began to fall here, it’s probably too early to say, but I think in May, in any case, we will receive some kind of corrective rollback only to the extent of its ticking, because if it goes deep enough and breaks through 4000 3900, in this case, it will simply start massive sales and we we can see the bsmp collapse, but here I suppose so now no one is interested in what was its shaft will be kept by all possible means by hook at the current values above 4000 4100 so friends, but this week the dollar index he is already trying to fight off his main value 91 and 5 if you switch to their hours, then this is the kind of movement and therefore at the moment there are two key levels that if it is broken it can develop very quickly vigorous movement the first level is 91 and 5 if it breaks through then there is a consolidation then the euro and other currencies will strengthen against the dollar and it can happen very strong and the second moment this is the level that is 90 18, but if it breaks through it and gains a foothold further, it is very likely that there will be a very fast movement to 92 and then 92 and 3, switching to a four-hour timeframe, here it means a cycle of movement with a target of 90 18 but today, given that so far no macroeconomic information is important I'm not supposed to think somewhere in this sideways 91 691 75 and will hang out all day so d alley Wicks for IKSU closed below the value of May 16 this indicates that now the beginning of the week well, perhaps even for the entire week here will try to do for Dirk and the movement of 15 13 and a half so friends gave oil brent weekly timeframe but look what we have there was such a good close above 66 25 this indicates that there is a high probability for this the DJ this week, the movement whose target will be to test or rewrite this is the maximum values of 71 and 5 passing to the daily timeframe here we have a picture the next was an attempt to reversal and corrective rollback to 62 and 360 24, but so far there is no breakout of 65 and 9, all these movements, this consolidation, all pullbacks will be bought out and, accordingly, they will tend to take it first to sixty-nine and three, then to 71 and 4 here, that is, the criteria for what will go negative dynamics and there will be a drawdown, this is a breakdown of 65 and 965 and 8 well, and the hourly timeframe on the hourly timeframe everything is fine here, the rebound from the strong the level is 66 25 and it is very likely that today we will see a movement in oil, the target will be 67 11 so long ago further gold the weekly timeframe everything was pleasant enough here, but the sorti ware speculators do not bet on the fact that gold will grow this week, not really I'm with them I agree, let's see why, yes, if we consider a nevka, then here you are quite possible a corrective rollback and, accordingly, all events will develop here in the event of a breakdown of 1770 1766 this range, if this week we break through, then it is likely that a corrective rollback will follow from here the target of this rollback will be a 1731, switching to the hourly timeframe here, what should you pay attention to, in fact, we are now very likely to move up from here if there is a breakdown of 1783 thousand so that 85 of this range, we can see the movement, the target of which will shake the 1800 1800 1810 range here but today probably such passions will not develop today we have an idea max imum movement to 1787 right here and this idea will not work if there is a corrective pullback and I break through one thousand seven hundred seventy three thousand seven hundred seventy two and a half of this range, respectively, even if it does not go up now, but this range is held today during the day it is very likely that the movement at 1787 will be closing, so friends further silver it looks even probably a little stronger than gold, and even more so the players are betting on Russia edges this week on the weekly timeframe, this week the target of the movement is at 27 5 this movement does not work if it goes rollback and breakout of 24 6, so switching to the daily timeframe from the weekly here on the daily timeframe a corrective pullback has been outlined, and if twenty five and six are broken, we will very likely get the movement from here, the target of which will be 25 and it is possible to test 2485 this value under the nickname here a reversal appears, which will occur if twenty-five is broken b and six so for 4 o'clock wick which is the ice for silver but look here we have a very interesting situation on the one hand a corrective rollback started and, accordingly, the corrective rollback would go to twenty-five and a half, but at the moment this value here we have double the bottom has arisen and therefore, if there is no repeated breakdown of twenty-five and seven, he picks up fuel here and sings from here the target of the movement will be good for 20 6 7, but if a pair of boitano appears here, today silver is likely to roll back and consolidate at 25 and 4 while I think there are more factors for a correctional pullback from a double bottom and a move upward so friends next euro dollar four-hour timeframe I put immediately here there was a false breakdown and at the moment if we do not have a repeat downward movement with a breakdown of 1 whole 1937 then we will develop a corrective rebound from here, the goal of this is how many 1 whole 1995, if now it goes home of this range, then the euro leaves two there will be one whole 1885 right here here to this range here while the situation is still unclear because on the one hand there was quite an active recruitment of positions in this range which did not end with the distribution in full , on the other hand these terrible rounded constructions they often lead to this that a strong corrective rollback is developing, so if this breakdown does not happen, then today we have a goal for the movement of the euro dollar 1 whole 1995 so friends further ruble dollar or this mura weekly timeframe look speculators are betting on the fact that American speculators in Chicago, which in general is this the ruble is strong enough despite all the stations, all these nuances, they do not bet on the ruble to fail, but this can change very quickly at any time, but based on the weekly timeframe, the ruble-dollar has turned around and the target of the movement is at 73 5 this is a ride tamura weekly timeframe geopolitics to the station to horror-horror but damn, on the other hand, there is not much here what can not be helped on the basis of the weekly timeframe, let's see what can be extracted on the daily and shorter timeframes, but now it is not so optimistic, it does not indicate that a reversal has occurred, it indicates that now there is just a consolidation in an extended range upper level 77 35 and the lower level, respectively, 75 and 3, based on the daily timeframe, there are more factors for a movement today, the goal of which is to hang out and gain a foothold above 76, barely well, and moving to a clean copy on a purely wick , we have a movement formed right here, the goal of this movement is at 76 and 4 but if , as a result of the opening, a corrective rollback with a breakthrough of seventy-five and six occurs, then in this situation the ruble-dollar can be taken for some time and held at 75.3 I will cut the dollar, of course, a very interesting picture because for a week we turned around and must go вниз то есть рубль должен укрепляться но дневной и более короткие таймфрейм и они указывают на движение в консолидации на то что будет отбой и рост доллара против рубля так друзья давайте дальше посмотрим акции сбербанка но по сбербанку дневной таймфрейм здесь прямо движение как по на знаки и по моему американскому хай-тек у прыгает как лягушка так исходя из 4-х часового тайм-фрейма по сберу здесь картина очень и очень интересная потому что вот сейчас с утра на открытии в 10:00 если не происходит пробоя 289 и 3 294 вот этого диапазона то отсюда наиболее вероятно идет движение цель которого 282 если здесь возникает вот этот пробой то тогда сбербанк подтянут сначала на 294 потом тестирует 296 так друзья далее газпром здесь ситуация наверно даже более интересное потому что судя по недельному таймфрейму он готов к тому что вы на это не сделать пробой 238 и наконец-то сходить на 256 255 исходя из дневного таймфрейма здесь у нас сейчас прямо будет либо пробой 238 и космос либо если пробой не возникает здесь наиболее вероятно возникает отбой цель движения эта консолидация в диапазоне 229 1037 пробой 228 приведет к откату и возврату на 221 вот но здесь я думаю более вероятно сейчас либо движение на 229 либо пробой и уход наверх несмотря на всю там станционную риторику и ужас-ужас газпром смотрится очень уверенно так друзья далее на риски никель сегодня у него отчет за 1 квартал по операционной деятельности дневной таймфрейм очень сильные движения в металлах происходит и поэтому на сегодня если сейчас мы пробиваем 25 650 25 702 отсюда весьма вероятно будет движение наверх первая цель это 26 700 и потом 27 если вот этот пробой сегодня не состоится то мы отсюда отобьемся и поем консолидироваться на 24 тысячи 850 вот сюда друзья все основные инструменты спасибо за внимание успешных торгов всего наилучшего
2021-04-20