2.08.РЫНОК ОТСКОЧИ!Курс ДОЛЛАРА на сегодня.SP500.Нефть. Золото.РТС.VIX.Газпром.Сбербанк.Норникель
friends greet you on the ninja capital channel today, Monday, August 2, let's look at what events are coming today, what to expect today, what movements are supposed to be in oil, the dollar, gold and silver, the euro and other assets, and also what stocks may be of interest today for short-term speculation, let's start with the calendar of events for Regarding the dynamics of changes in the position of the social network, what are the expectations in this regard on the market on Saturday I did the issue, if you are interested to see so today we have Pima day iv in China with calcium released another index in the manufacturing sector, it is again lower than the forecast and the previous value, but here Already an alarming bell is ringing today if you look at the Chinese stock market, then we see such a pretty 2 percent rebound and an attempt to return to this area about trading, but here it is connected with a number of factors, firstly, Newton's third law if something starts to move sharply down it sooner or later meets resistance and pushes against Each action has its own opposition, the only question is how much this opposition will lead to the zone from which the movement began, well, for such a rebound, there is, and in general, a number of reasons are that it is that the fallen Chinese shares began to buy back at the direction of the party, it is that one of the initiators of this celebration due to the drawdown of the Chinese market ever grande, the developer there is actually a conglomerate of companies, he sold his Internet divisions there partially went to pay off bond debts, the shares of this company themselves today are also bouncing stabilize in the area of the long-standing payment of their well, and thus the Chinese market today has a positive impact, but Again, the fundamental economy of China begins to stagnate, in addition to this, there is an interesting article on paper on this score that the Communist Party of China took the direction of movement towards the population, it turned away from high-tech business from billionaires from the one who moved the economy in the past years, respectively, a trend was taken on what can be called the stability of the middle class in reducing the gap between rich and poor, and so on and so on, but in general, they embody the great Chinese idea that for 5000 years they nurtured they grew in different forms in different forms here, in principle, what is the moment China is very consistently slowly but consistently moving towards its goal at the moment, what is happening with the Chinese stock market, including with those companies that are located in the United States here, I think all the same, the political will of China of the Chinese leadership is mostly just a formalization of that the process that took place in the world Chinese economy has reached a maximum and, accordingly, there is nowhere to grow further, we can see it from the Chinese catch, which begins to stagnate, and, accordingly, here from the point of view of competent and effective management when you are on the side of the vertical, the economic and social and political are the most logical to deploy it the trend is a trend that is aimed at building politics and the economy within the country in favor of the population to turn away from big business a little, and immediately when such moments occur, as a rule, it improves, in fact, it worsens and the global and local economic conjuncture simply suggests that the development model has developed for itself and now there will be something, but there is a lot of interesting material about the fact that he traveled around the country, the Chinese leader complained to him from representatives of the Chinese folk middle class that unbearably expensive tutors for children and therefore, well, in general, from a formal point of view, therefore, such restrictions were introduced on Chinese companies that are engaged in education, but what about high-tech about the provision of export of personal data on China to the Chinese, respectively, this idea will limit it for a long time and it was in the air, especially as the main trajectory of growth it happened and when it starts stagnation is no longer here barking but still it will come to the fact that there will be a drawdown, so today is an interesting day today and mine is coming out in Russia, catch it in the European Union in Germany, steam is published today at three o'clock in the afternoon, so on, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on monetary policy issues, but also in the afternoon of the United States will show what is happening there in their drink mine so we in the united states as usual the soap opera began to count down to the X-hour when the money runs out the budget needs to be coordinated before its deficit so if the Russian agenda is addressed in russia, the demand for commercial real estate has jumped, but here it is not we need special illusions to feed this as a consequence of what is happening in the Russian economy, the housing market has already been dispersed in a certain way, followed by some small commercial real estate, so friends, let's move on to the schedule china this morning sets a positive agenda regarding baltic drive the cost of sea freight here yandex doesn’t want to go down and thus it reproduces increased in cost inflation so friends moving to cryptocurrency bitcoin is a tighter weekly timeframe and here there is a battle for the level 39500 from my point of view it has a more significant level exactly 39500 not 40,000 although 40,000 is a round figure and today there is a struggle in order to gain a foothold at the level of 39500 if it is will happen and it will be very good because in this situation it means that the fuse of the movement that arose here after this powerful blow, it can be realized very quickly and, accordingly, bitcoin goes right here at 54 thousand five hundred fifty-five thousand from this value, but if now everything there will still be a drawdown and consolidation on the fact of today's tomorrow's close below 39500, this will indicate that it is consolidating in this range, again, I draw attention to those who think that cryptocurrencies are rubbish, but this is actually quite natural, everyone should have their own opinion point of view, the main thing is that it is sufficiently substantiated and it is the greatest degree corresponded because what is happening in reality, firstly, as if this is a new world, new technologies that have arisen and the second moment if we look at the dynamics of movement for 21 years, then we will see that the level 28 520 9000 it acts as an armor plate and it is simply swept away from this value of course this does not mean that there cannot be a sharp downward movement and a departure by 10,000 to 3,000, but here, as it were, the nuance lies in the fact that the cryptocurrency is largely distributed among large players who are disinterested there and cost a cheap price for a long time and are interested in buying in addition for a long time no, well, now the persecution of large crypto starts, I will offend by us, this is also a completely natural move because the evolutionary struggle between the old and the new world begins, well, now, at the moment, perhaps the so-called new world, it will give up a little so friends next weekly timeframe index fear and volatility here we see m that in fact the situation we are so positive as it seemed at the end of last week when there was a closing, in fact, everything goes to the fact that a position is set before a rebound and movement upward, the timeframe is a weekly and therefore, in general, it is based on the fact that it is a weekly timeframe you do not know that right now there will be some kind of upward movement there this week and there is no oval land of but the brushwood is dried preparation it has been passed the positions are recruited medium-term and, accordingly, here any convenient reason he will come to the fact that the movement will develop first in the area of 40 then perhaps even higher here here in the region 57 but for now, next week seem to be peace and quiet was so taken further smps to go on futures SanPin here at all well here is a movement to a new high master, and if the switch to hour timeframe here in general that all indications the fact that today a pair of trading points in this range will be higher than 4400, respectively, if there is a corrective rollback from p by hitting 4390, this is the value here it passes, then in this situation the corrective rollback can become really serious and we can quite today go to the end of the day in the area of 4300 50 here again it will be only if this value is broken if this value is not broken happens, we are safely testing this x and trying to break through to gain a foothold above it, well, either a correctional pullback and movements in this range at the moment there are more factors that indicate that today the trade will be quite positive, perhaps the maximum will be rewritten once again, but so far no abyss is thickening over the horizon of China well this morning I jumped up and therefore the wind fills the sails and moves everything forward and upward, so they took the oil brent weekly timeframe, but look at the cells there, it seems like the situation is more or less stable for oil, no one is now expecting a drawdown , nevertheless, a corrective rollback he first this week develops nowhere from it can not get away but honey agarics But now 74 and 72 are almost like a triple seven ace while these levels are broken through, they will respectively redeem and either consolidate or at the top, as it were, the tendency has deteriorated a little, but some consolidation should still continue here, such false breakdowns are possible, but this will accordingly be a little later now, I think the positions have been unloaded here and for some time we have to bargain in consolidation so we are moving on oil to the person here is an excellent picture bounced now the target of the movement the first target is right here at 75 15 the next target of the movement at seventy-five and seven here here this scenario is positive in terms of growth, it will not happen if there is now a correctional pullback and we get a breakout of 73 and 874 of this range, but here in fact the hourly level it coincides from the more global level at 74, because if an empty breakout of 74 occurs, then you are not automatically goes into the range of 70 274, while more factors here indicate that we are now at the background of the positive in China should rebound a little, well, in China, the positive from my point of view is very conditional Chinese technological shares of course can rebound and some have already jumped, but I draw your attention here to the risk associated with freedom in circulation because this is a key point, that is, there should be free circulation no restrictions but in China it constantly arises and now the trend is that it will intensify, so I think you need to be extremely careful with the Chinese who are active if you don’t practice at all, ideally, I don’t get in touch with him. but this is the daily timeframe, it closed somewhat insidiously, that is , this risk reduction, which began anew, was sharply prevented by such a close, respectively, but it gives, let's say, enough reason for the movement to weaken and dex the dollar by 90 15 either did not take place or was short enough so friends gave gold there about the garden assorted force of ash then the growth of the position, unlike other metals, silver platinoids, gold and copper are growing well, and now if the hourly chart of gold is directly viewed locally here we have this range chik magic 1814 1811 and 9812, respectively, if for 1-3 hours we hold this range here this is the lower border impenetrable, we have a rebound from here and the goal of this rebound of movement is right here at 1824 and a half to this value if there is a breakdown of tpa, we go to consolidate in the area of 1806 here there may be a short blow at 1800 but based on the previous week that's all attempts to break through 1800, they were unsuccessful, and here is the set of positions that took place in the area of 1800 1692 1800s, the exit here until I observe, respectively, this indicates that there will be unloading at higher values because here gold was bought very well so friends further silver let's put the weekly timeframe here the situation is quite interesting despite the fact that speculators do not believe while positions are unloaded in silver and unloading here, it is very likely on the weekly timeframe reversal formation the target of this reversal formation is to move right here at 27 4 if so the medium-term is guided well, and according to the daily timeframe, everything went fine here, but the only thing that was needed was a slightly lower limb it is better to ascend here by 23 and 8 even by 20 15 but in general everything is ready here on the daily timeframe so that silver this week goes to 26 and 3 to 100 are not very positive and here, therefore, there is some contradiction if there is a corrective rollback with a break 2520 49, then it is very likely that for silver, it will not develop from here that growth, which in general has matured, but a movement first by 24 5 then testing the lower local levels that have also accumulated here, but again here this breakout with a high degree of probability led to the fact that we gained strength and this or next week the probability of movement up in silver is quite high, so well and here o'clock the view is quite cheerful, because it indicates that today the 1st plan of the day is very likely to be testing 25 and 8 a little left to go completely, but here the picture is quite optimistic and it indicates that all the same this movement now with a high degree of probability will take place here very likely there will be a breakdown and a movement in the direction of 26.1 for a start, according to the criteria that now this movement will not go to a corrective pullback and a breakout of 20 5 3 so friends gave futures on the RTS index there is an excellent movement upward now it is very likely that this cover will be tested 163 food 500, respectively, here in case of breaking through the value of 162 400 162 300, a downward movement develops from here and the goal of the pates city is this support 161 1250 161 1300 well, if here you go to the girl, then all the conditions for there to be an attempt to test the breakdown of this value and this week movement here with or work out 165 thousand four hundred and fifty here only a landslide a Merike China and the oil can this situation level and accordingly send tests to steam 161 thousand one hundred sixty thousand five hundred here this range so but if a week to take what is more likely is that we are most of the time this week will be in the range 161 1160 3500 here after this movement, there should be consolidation for some time, here it is necessary to clearly understand that if oil grows, then, accordingly, the RTS will also try to launch into space, so before taking natural gas further, the daily timeframe is good this week, already the growth has opened against the background of a gas shortage, respectively, this is will give a lot of strength today and this week for Gazprom and the length . so friends gave the ruble-dollar, let's look for a change, since the beginning of the month futures ruble dollar chip the monthly timeframe we have on the monthly timeframe here August is an insidious month and therefore, according to the traditions of August, there should be a movement to the area of 74,575,000 let's see how this will be implemented here there are just so many opposing forces In this, in August, great chaos came together on the one hand, which, in August, occurs on the other hand, as if it is not quite expensive and to a certain extent there is a significant interest in Russian assets, therefore, this factor, these factors, they will struggle very strongly with each other and for now it is not completely clear what will win this way, but if the girl is taken to move, then, accordingly, we get very likely this movement to strengthen the ruble, she has largely exhausted herself because the tax period has ended , but we need currency in order to introduce them and, accordingly, here we have such the picture comes out that it was quite logical oh well, at least consolidate in the range of 70 3 650 74 250 here, in this range of key tags from 857 to Moscow, so we had enough opening today in favor of the ruble, but at the moment this is the movement that should have developed from here the goal of which is 3073 400 it did not realize itself and now it starts to choke and the dollar is trying to rebound with the aim of moving right here to the area of 73 1900 if you look at the futures on the basis of the hourly time frame for the ruble dollar futures here everything indicates that this movement to strengthen the ruble is very Probably now my friends have exhausted themselves locally, but if you look at the ruble dollar on the spot, then the situations are almost identical, I clarify generally identical only to discard thousands and there is a small lag of values , but if you switch to a clean mattress here it turns out there was a breakdown in this range and this range if it will not tighten if there is a way out and fixing it now during the morning, then it is very likely that сегодня в течение дня либо завтра будет отсюда движения с целью закрепиться выше 70 334 если смотреть по споту ну и соответственно по исходя из того что на споте если сейчас будет коррекционный откат с пробоем 7305 73 то весьма вероятно сегодня вторая половина дня она пройдет вот здесь под торговки на укрепление рубля но как видите фьючерс из-под они дают картину похожую но значение немножко отличаются так друзья дали его рубль давайте spot посмотрим здесь все время интригующие всякие штуки рисуются ну конечно как 20 июля было и до этого таких повторений пока не происходит но вот сегодня тоже здесь немножко порезвились кустика такой нарисовали ну как видите в евро жизни она кипит хвост на хвосте так вот переходя на чистовик здесь можно сказать ну я думаю все таки но я вот хотел проверить то есть закономерность какая то есть по каким дням недели чаще всего этого возникают ну такой прям закономерность нет тоже допустим если в понедельник или пятницу там в пятницу кто-то на радостях что недели закрывается выбросил рыночную заявку еще сумел в понедельник возможно у кого-то руки трясутся после выходных нет у заявку видел такую тушу бывает вот но в целом здесь такой закономерности нету и по-видимому здесь ну действительно какие-то локальные задачи осмысленные решаются такими хвостами то есть это не ошибка это не какой-то там злой рок судя по всему это вполне пал намеренные действия которые основываются на все таки значительно менее ликвидности евро рубля по сравнению с рубль доллар хотя там тоже нас пути резвятся будь здоров но вот евро рубль это конечно шедевр так друзья давайте посмотрим че savic ну евро рубль часа века здесь в большей степени указания на движение на версии более вот ракета обозначила верхнюю границу 8738 соответственно в наибольшей степени сейчас будет попытка движения но если не на это значение то хотя бы на 87 сценарий этот отменяется если сейчас будет откаты пробитие восемьдесят шесть и семь вот этого значения если такое сейчас произойдет то мы ухо дим укрепляться по рублей консолидироваться в восемьдесят шесть и пять пока больше факторов указывает на то что где-то вот в этом диапазоне сегодня основные торги будут проходить так друзья далее газпромом давайте 4 часа их возьмем по газпрому ситуация очень позитивная он протестировал можно сказать про торговался выше 208 6 вот в этом диапазоне ки газ как вы видели по графику газует вот и весьма вероятно что на этой неделе мы увидим закрепление выше этого значения и соответственно движение целью по тысяч триста наконец-то вот здесь у нас есть локальный уровни это 283 соответственно если он пробивается и начинается проторговка на нем то газпром весьма вероятно будет откатываться и консолидироваться вот в этом диапазоне так друзья гмк г-н касс только вопросов столько более на смотрите 4 часа вик сразу здесь беру по 4 часа вику сегодня движение наверх цель вот этот диапазон соответственно это движение срывается если будет коррекционный откат и повторные пробитие 24 девицу вот сюда если м ы уходим и пробиваем то вот эта вся попытка роста она переходит в консолидацию и возможна дальнейшая просадка но структура сделал указывает на то что здесь готовились к росту несмотря на все эти заморочки с катастрофами которые там к сожалению завидной регулярностью происходит вот но тем не менее здесь кто-то сделал ставку на то что рост произойдет так друзья далее сбербанк четырех часовой таймфрейм здесь идет движение наверх первая цель 309 потом цель 313 половиной 314 соответственно критерий того что эта цель срывается это коррекционный откат и пробития 300 целых пять десятых если такое происходит то здесь возникает консолидация или дальнейшей откат так друзья на общем то все основные активы основные акции спасибо за внимание успешных торгов
2021-08-02 14:42
