2024 Predictions for HR: Productivity, Growth, and AI

2024 Predictions for HR:  Productivity, Growth, and AI

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[Music] hello everybody from all over the world  we have a amazingly interesting group of more than   2,400 people at the moment and more joining so  there will be lots and lots of interesting things   to talk about so what I'm going to do for about  45 minutes is take you through the year ahead   and this is an effort I go through every year I've  done this about 20 years and it's not just me kind   of pontificating on things that I think are going  on it's based on all the research we've done over   the prior year and the things we see going ahead  and you all see a lot of this and so you will   recognize some of these ideas but they're going  to be in a new context there are three assets here   you can get the report you can get the infographic  and there is a micro course that's a six session   little mini course you can take on these materials  and the reason we do this is we really want this   to be a tool for you to use to talk about within  your companies to talk about within your teams   to look at for your own professional development  not just a list of predictions so there there's   four big themes that we're sitting on right now  as we come into the new year the first is we'll   talk about labor market we are going to have a  difficult hiring Market you'll see more on that   the economy is probably going to do reasonably  well this year and due to the fertility rate and   the Aging of the Baby Boomers and the retirement  of baby boomers virtually every country developed   country at least is going to have a shortage  of Labor we'll talk about that in a minute the   second is transformation the PWC 2024 CEO survey  60% of CEOs now believe that their company as it   exists will not be around in 10 years that  was 49% last year so the rate of change and   the pace of transformation has accelerated that  has a huge impact on what we do we are a part of   responding to that I'll talk about that in terms  of the dynamic organization in a minute number   three of course is AI I'm going to talk about AI  as much as I can you know that we're into this   we've spent a lot of time on it we're offering  you AI through Galileo and you're going to be   very involved in AI in many many ways as is your  entire company and then the fourth is a complete   completely different mindset for employees the  essential change is coming out of the trauma of   the pandemic by the way we're still getting covid  I mean everybody I know has covid right now people   are saying to themselves and this is all ages but  primarily younger people you know I don't want to   work so hard I may not want to climb the corporate  ladder make my life better I'm happy to work on   something that's good but if I don't like what  I'm doing I'm going to find something else to do   and given the job market they're going to quietly  quit or leave there are 15 predictions I call them   maybe predictions or imperatives in the report  and in the report you will also find detailed   analysis and research in each one and then at  the end there is an action planning guide with   a series of questions you can use in your group  and your company and your team to walk through   how you want to address these issues because not  every company is going to focus on all 15 things   but I'm going to hit through most of these on the  webcast okay so let me start with the labor market   Market you've probably all seen us talk about the  post-industrial world where we're witnessing it   right now you're witnessing it happen before  your eyes this is a chart of unemployment and   we all believed certainly I did you know prior in  earlier parts of my career that unemployment was   just cyclical you know when we had a good economy  unemployment was low when we had a bad economy   unemployment was high no that's not true there is  a secular decline in unemployment it's going down   it's now at 3.8% it went down as low as 3.4%  % this is an effect of the productivity growth   that's going on around the world the fertility  rate I talked about earlier the retirement of   the baby boners and just general demographics in  developed countries but while that has happened   GDP has gone up if you look at this chart it's  actually fascinating the red line is GDP the   blue line is unemployment rate and the aqua line  is the number of people working and you can see   this is us that in the United States we have not  really grown the workforce much a little bit each   year now the labor participation rate goes up and  down but it's a very tiny variation and what this   is showing you is increases and increases and  increases in productivity productivity is going   to be a big theme this year and because this sort  of little equation here is going to get worse and   the reason this is happening is historic just  really good paper I'm really proud of called   the post industrial economy that explains this  is that companies were originally founded as you   know small groups of artisans in The Agrarian age  or farmers and they scaled by human scale so if I   want to milk twice as many tacow I need twice as  many milkers if I'm a a weaver and I want to weave   twice as much wool I need twice as many Weavers  and then and so we had a linear growth with   business growth or GDP by human beings double the  number of human beings double the number of growth   Along Comes the Industrial Age we have electricity  we have Steam engines we have Automation and all   of a sudden things scale up and we have machines  and automation to improve the scalability of our   companies and we designed many many of the HR  practices we have today from the Industrial Age   I'm going to show you a picture of Jack Welch in a  few minutes things like succession management job   families career hierarchies pay for performance  cascading goals even Balan scorecard stuff that   I used to read about when I was first starting  in business really comes from this model where   we had hierarchical industrial companies and by  the way people retired in their 60s during the   Industrial Age and so they didn't move around  between companies or between Industries very   often at all along comes computers Along Comes  mainframes PCS and other forms of technology and   all of a sudden we realize you know we can make  money because of our data and if we're a better   information company we can sell more stuff we can  understand our supply chain better Erp became big   I mean I was at IBM when Erp started and the  CIO became sort of the king of the company in   one of the most important roles we had a war for  skills during that period of time and then as the   internet came along we had a war for digital  skills and the internet really changed it even   more because what happened with the internet  was it was very easy to change jobs I graduated   from college in 1978 and when I graduated from  college you typed a resume on a piece of paper   with a typewriter by the way if you made a mistake  you Whited it out out you stuck it in an envelope   and you mailed it to a company and you waited  and hoped that you might get a call by the way   there was no email in the early days about a job  well or you got a letter back well of course now   that we had internet recruiting and Linkedin and  monster and you know all of those all you could   change jobs very quickly so in the information  Age We suddenly suffered from retention problems   and people started to do job hopping and job  hopping was considered to be good not bad and   now it's even worse I mean now obviously most  young people will have seven 8 nine 10 Employers   in their career whereas you know certainly in  my early days it was one or two but it's going   to get even faster because in this new era what  we're entering now we have vast amounts of White   Collar Automation in AI not just blue collar  Automation and so even the lawyers the analysts   the writers the marketing professionals are going  to see massive productivity Improv improvements   while we have this shortage of workers and what  that leads to is this and that is an increasing   curve of productivity growth this is the history  of productivity measured by GDP per employee by   country and you can see during The Agrarian age it  was flat didn't grow at all it was sort of a flat   line and then as cars and Manufacturing equipment  came along it steep steeped up steep up steep too   and it's going to go steeper and steeper and  steeper and the question you're going to have   to answer in your company is where are you on this  curve because as I'm going to show you in a minute   if your company falls behind in this curve you're  not going to see it coming somebody's going to   come up your tailpipe and take your business  away at a rate you can't really address and   the real story here is the super workers is  really the Superhuman power that every worker   now has the manufacturing worker has machines the  office worker has AI the HR professional has AI   we'll talk about that too and the company with  the fastest ability to take advantage of this   technology and use it and obviously understand  their customers and have a great culture is going   to win now while all that's going on we have a  really changed employee base and I think most   of you know this but the statistics are just  staggering this goes on month after month after   month I see the same statistics yesterday I read  the new Gallop engagement research they do with   you know all over the world employment engagement  is down again it went up a little bit during the   beginning of the pandemic and it's down and a  lot of the issue is people feeling burned out   you know remote work is hard I mean it's hard to  feel connected to people when you're on the end of   a video call people have suffered mental health  challenges productivity challenges disconnected   people leave companies much more easily and this  affects their perception of value of their career   interestingly enough for young people they're  looking at work differently you know if you   look at that chart in the center that 69% of baby  boomers believe they go above and beyond the job   every day that's me that's my age I mean we kind  of went to work with this you know mentality that   you know if you don't hustle you're not going to  get ahead only 43% of genz agree with that and 52%   of genes and Millennials are growing disenchanted  with a 9-to-5 lifestyle so things like the 4-day   work week are going to come this is going to  happen and I'll show you the experimentation on   that it's actually pretty cool look at what really  people do want in a job it's not as different as   you might imagine they want to grow their career  83% of companies believe that is the number more   reason they will change their job number two they  want a sense of empowerment they want a sense of   flexibility they want a sense of autonomy there's  this idea of job crafting that you make the job   the job doesn't make you you know in the old  days you fit yourself to the job now the job fits   itself to you and you implement it in the way you  want and the third is they want to work in company   companies and jobs where they feel like they're  having some positive impact and these are not   necessarily brand new ideas but they're critical  issues in this labor shortage the other thing I'll   just say is you know Mark and Terry and the rest  of us here we talked to lots and lots of companies   you know we're sort of like microeconomists we're  hearing stories of of issues in companies you know   dozens and dozens of companies per week everybody  is facing the same issues I would say these nine   things in here I hear in every single organization  so this is a commonly understood issue and that's   why these Solutions are repeatable from industry  to Industry now in the middle of all that we also   have a very different way of Designing our  companies now this chart comes from actually   the 2016 human capital trends when I was at deoe  that was seven years ago and at the time it was   more of an idea than really a reality and only a  few percentage of companies Define themselves on   the right today virtually everybody operates in a  flattened organization people working on multiple   projects cross functional collaboration being  critical to success dynamically spinning up new   groups shutting down other groups moving people  around the organization this is just the way po   industrial companies work I'm going to show you  an example of one in a minute and the reason of   course they do this is we don't make money by  scale anymore we make money by time to Market   speed to Market closeness to customers product  Innovation and if you can't move quickly to take   advantage of new technologies or Market changes  you know your margins go down your Revenue starts   to decline and you can buy other companies but  even when you buy other companies you have to   go through the same process of integrating  them well this new world changes HR a lot it   changes the architecture of our systems in the  pre-industrial age or in the Industrial Age by   the way all the Erp systems workday Oracle sap  are designed for the left virtually all of them   there's only a few that are designed for the right  we had a job which was basically a container and   we defined a job we defined the level the title  The competencies required for this job supposedly   and we slotted people into it and you applied for  the job and then we managed the job through our   HR systems as the way we ran the company and that  actually started to fall apart 10 years ago when   all of a sudden people were doing things that we  didn't have job titles for because let's face it   whatever your job is and it's certainly true  in our company it really doesn't matter what   the title is because dayto day you're going to  do different things and it's going to change   over time because of things that go on in the  company and new needs and changes in the systems   and Technologies and so forth we do so we need a  new model and the reason skills are so important   is we're moving to a people Centric architecture  in a people Centric architecture you have a much   more flattened organization we move people around  they work on cross functional projects we promote   them and pay them and develop them based on  skills not jobs it's very very different way of   thinking about it and we have different technology  underneath it and if you read the PO Industrial   Paper you'll see a little more details on what  this differentiation really is we're also in a   world where workers are not abundant we can't  slot them in and out of jobs the way we did   before because it's so hard to to hire them the  average time to hire based on the research we did   last year is almost 50 days on average and in many  cases it's 60 70 80 days so we have to take care   of and manage and help every person in the company  and think about the organization as a network of   people not a network of jobs now the way this  manifest itself I'll just take one more minute   on this and then we'll get into the predictions  is through different organizational structures   and what Kathy enderis and I did the last year and  we published this in the fall is we wrote a very   comprehensive study on this and we looked at the  financial performance of the companies that are   taking advantage of this more what we call Dynamic  organization there's a fair number of companies   you can see 7% at the very top 24% up there their  outcomes are extraordinarily higher than their   peers now we do these charts all the time we do  these for all of our major studies where we look   at the financial people and Innovation outcomes  of the the top two levels in the maturity model   versus the bottom two levels in the maturity model  usually the top performers are three times higher   performance four times higher performance these  numbers are another order of magnitude higher   so if you're not Dynamic you're going to pay  the price and let me give you an example and   I just put this together this morning because  of Netflix's numbers yesterday we went down and   visited Netflix last year last summer or during  the our irresistible conference we met with the   management team they came to the conference and  we talked to them about how they run their company   Netflix just added 13 million new subscribers in  Q4 their revenue grew by $8.8 billion they are   now worth 244 billion dollar their priced earnings  ratio is 45 their revenue per employee is almost   twice that of Google almost two and a half times  that of meta like significantly higher than their   Media Company competitions how do they do it well  read this page on their website about the culture   this is a company that thrives on meritocracy on  Mobility on feedback on inclusion on agility on   data central decisions and when you meet them  you feel it I mean we were there we met them   these are hardworking respectful smart people and  they are delivering and this is the the kind of   thing we're going to have to think about in our  organizations throughout the year now let me talk   about AI I have been in the technology area since  the late 70s and I was around for the Mainframe   era the PC era the client server era the it was  the web then it was the cloud mobile and now this   I think AI is as big as the internet itself I  think the implications of this are so massive   in our ability to manage data in companies and  to do M data management analytics are ability to   manage textual information graphical information  creative processes decisionmaking and so forth PWC   thinks it's 15.7 trillion dollar it's massive and  it's going to affect everything it touches every   area of HR and the reason it does is because most  of what we do in HR and and I know this as well   as you guys do is help people make decisions  about people where there is no right answer   or wrong answer should I promote this person  should I promote that person does this person   get a level three or level four what is the right  development path for this person why is this group   underperforming why is this leader successful and  that leader is not successful we can debate this   stuff all day you can read books on psychology  you can have different models and call experts   ultimately it's a difficult answer and using AI we  can collect more data and we can make more sense   than ever before I'm not saying people analytics  is going away but people analytics is going to   look pretty slow and behind when these things are  making decisions based on vast amounts of data and   AI based modeling and I know this because I've  worked with the talent intelligence vendors and   our tool Galileo basically does this and so you  can see all the implications it's going to have   over the next year now there's also the business  side of this virtually every business group in   your company is also looking at AI the marketing  department the finance department the sales the   customer service the go to market people and so on  the one hand we're going to spend the year working   with them helping them with data management and  role design and job design and skills and then   we're going to do the same thing for ourselves  and and really that's why we pioneered Galileo   I started working on Galileo a year ago and I had  to really kind of push it through our company to   make sure we were doing it and now that we have  it and you guys all of those of you that are   corporate members are going to get it you're going  to see the Revolutionary way AI can help help you   manage data answer questions and give information  to employees that is very difficult for them to   find or for us to deliver in a call center on  ourselves now in the HR Tech Market of course   it's also having a huge effect all of the vendors  are adding AI generative AI modules or features   to their systems but the real big part to me is  this green area in the middle and that is the big   AI platforms the talent intelligence Platforms  in many ways most of the HR tools we've bought   over the years are transactional systems they're  workflow transactional systems they capture data   they put it into a screen and you run reports they  weren't designed for AI they weren't designed for   massive amounts of data at all I mean they just  the architecture was not even considered when they   were designing that well these systems in the  B middle which I'll talk about in a sec which   started in recruiting are really becoming the  people data systems of companies over time I mean   in some sense the Talon intelligence system is  like the Google of people for your company who's   ready to be promoted what is our pay is our pay  Equitable amongst these people what's the career   path for this person what are the trending skills  in our company versus the trending skills in our   competitors this is going to be massive and so  all of the HR vendors and you know this you're   probably hearing from them are are figuring  out how to take advantage of this it's going   to affect everything it's going to affect employee  experience there's lots and lots of applications   there it's going to affect L&D I'm going to  I'm going to show you something I called the   autonomous learning platform I think we're going  to you know sort of wake up and suddenly realize   that a lot of the formal Education and Training  we're doing can be done automatically almost like   autonomous driving all of these things you can  you're going to happen recruiting of course is   massive and and recruiting in some sense has been  using AI the longest because it has been trying   to determine the characteristics of people through  social information and analyzing that information   for a long long time and their attractiveness and  their potential fit into an organization or a job   example of this if you saw Walmart I talked  to Donna Morris about this a week or two ago   Walmart has a very sophisticated it Department I  I think most of you would not be able to pull this   off as fast as they did but they basically took  their HR technology which is very very well put   together and they built an generative AI chatbot  and she told me which by the way can be used for   all sorts of things Galileo is one of these which  you'll see and she told me that the call center   agents that answer calls for health and benefits  tend to answer the calls correctly about 70% of   the time what is my benefit for this what are my  benefit for this what's my option here ver there   she said the AI chatbot is correct 95% of the time  so think about just the call center operations   we have in companies to deal with employee issues  and how that can be radically changed with AI and   then it's going to change this whole area of data  you know people analytics is a wonderful domain   and it's been fascinating to be a part of it and  and really contribute to it but that's going to   go to AI too and I think you know this idea of  running a survey doing an analysis coming back   three months later and telling people what you  found that's going to happen in near real time   through Ai and we have examples of that too what  about hybrid work now we've talked about this in   the beginning I know a lot of CEOs fought this  they tried to force people to come back to work   we had mandatory two day a week come back to the  office and so forth I mean the real reality of   this and all the data shows this is that when  it is done well employees love it they love   the flexibility they love the fact that they may  not have to commute all the time they can work at   home and take care of their family things that are  going on there and it allows them to manage their   lives better but it creates stress it creates  distance between you and the team and you and   the company it can alienate people there are lots  of young people that want to go back to offices   again so what are we going to do about it well  the big problem we really have and I think this   is continuing and I see this in the PWC Story by  the way let me tell you one more thing in the PWC   survey another just absolutely staggering thing  that came out of that was of those two or three   th000 CEOs that were surveyed they believe on  average that 40% of the work in their company   is wasted time is bureaucracy is inefficiencies  they believe there's a 40% inefficiency in their   companies number one inefficiency is email number  two inefficiency is too many meetings number three   inefficiency by the way is recruiting number  four inefficiency is expense reports number   five inefficiency is Performance Management  so okay we're responsible for two of those so   we've got this issue with CEOs very aware of the  rate of change and the bureaucracy in the company   not believing people are you know productive yet  87 employees are saying I'm working really hard   I'm doing everything you asked I'm delivering  on my you know promises and I'm taking on more   responsibility this year two-thirds of them said  so what is going on here what's going on of course   is you can't know what's going on in everybody's  life in your company unless you're sitting right   next to them and so employees are basically  reaching the point because of hybrid work   because of the pandemic because of the rate change  going on in organizations where they're saying you   know if you're not going to listen to me I'm just  going to go call that union guy back and so all   of a sudden we have more unions and labor strikes  than I've ever seen in my career now only 11 or   12% of the United States workforces in unions  but it's much much higher in the public sector   and this is growing now and this is basically an  issue of what we now call employee activation and   I want to thank medalia and also Julia Bon who  worked with me on this on really coming up with   this concept that it is time to think about how  we Empower employees and managers and leaders to   listen to and accommodate and change the company  based on information we're hearing from employees   now you've heard me say this before and I'll say  it one more time I believe employees are the most   committed stakeholders you have in the company  customers will not tell you when they go away   why they didn't buy your product shareholders can  sell sell their stock and go buy somebody else's   stock employees are committed to your company and  when they're unhappy about something or they see   a problem or they think something could be done  better they are doing that because they love the   company and they want it to be better but we make  it hard for managers to do anything about that   so you're going to hear a lot about this idea of  activating employees and allowing the company to   evolve and adapt interestingly enough something  like 65 to 70% of employees said in the element   trust survey that they believe they individually  can change the company they work in and if they   can't they are going to go to social media to  impact that change so this is really what we're   dealing with here now among the many many things  going on of course to deal with this there's also   the 4-day week and I'll take just one minute on  this because you can read the report the 4-day   week is not a benefit like you know you get to  take Friday off every two weeks till you can go   to the dentist this is an in initiative where  these companies that have done this have said   you know let's look at how we do our work how the  schedules of meetings what kinds of bureaucracy   and systems we have and let's see if we can  eliminate eight hours of work but still do   the same amount of work in four days and what  these companies found after you know a little   bit of work on this and you can you know get our  help or there's some Consultants who will help you   on this is you can literally take work teams  and reduce the work time it's called worktime   reduction yet get the same amount accomplished so  in a sense this is a productivity initiative and I   don't think you guys are going to be immune from  this I think many many of you are going to want   to try this I think it's going to come out of the  stories from other organizations and please call   us if you'd like to talk more about it we've  got lots of examples to share so this issue of   hybrid work is real I wouldn't say it's solved  yet but there's lots and lots of best practices   now on what to do next topic is leadership now  I could talk about leadership till I'm blue in   the face every year we it seems to be another  issue this year things are different and I want   to just give you a quick highlight on this first  of all if you look at what we do in HR and how   it affects companies what kind of impact it has  we've looked at data from our Global capability   project and those of you that are either corporate  members or in the jba you've probably taken this   capability assessment and so we've had about I  don't know 11 or 12, HR professionals take it   and if you look at the organizations with the you  know that are the highest growth companies when   we have that data in the assessment and also in  other sources what are the HR capabilities that   these companies are good at well it turns out  the top three HR capabilities for the highest   performing companies are developing leaders and  managers number one change managing Communications   number two and understanding and applying  organization design that's the reason by   the way we built a super class on organiz ation  design because organization design is very very   important in this evolving changing World well so  impacting leaders is number one of course it is   because the leaders are running the company and if  we can impact them then all of our great ideas are   going to stick and have more impact and we also  know that if you go back in time and I'm going   to show you a little bit about the Jack Welch era  that where we've now landed in leadership is what   we call human- centered leadership and this is  based on some research we did during the pandemic   and there's a Playbook called the H the human-  centered leadership Playbook it's part of the big   reset by the way that Mark talked about earlier  and what it basically shows is that for every   single business situation a good one a bad one a  complex one and uncertain one there is a business   way of thinking about it as a leader and there is  a human way of thinking about it as a leader and   where we are today given the stress and the job  market and the number of opportunities people have   we really have to move to the right now the proof  of that is you know kind of what we found now   the historical context I was just thinking I just  put this chart together yesterday you know when I   entered this industry in the uh early 2000s every  company I talked to asked me the same question how   does GE do X you know I would talk about you know  learning or training or succession whatever they   say how does GE do it how does GE do it how does  GE do it well because at that point in time and   this was you know 5 years ago we were running the  industrial model in our companies and you can see   on the left all of those artifacts or practices or  ideas that were written about in Harvard Business   Review that we implemented during those years  today things are different we've got all these   issues of agility and change and skill shortages  and people being able to move between companies   and gig work we have to work on the things on the  right and so this is a PO industrial mindset for   for leadership by the way you know this book I'm  very proud of it we would love you guys to read it   it really is a great way to get your head wrapped  around these new issues what we found though in   the research we just did last year was that there  were three things that really characterized great   companies leadership development practices number  one is that leaders have to be able to energize   change it isn't enough to just be running the  group you have to know how to change the group   because every group and every team and every  function in every organization in every company   is going to be impacted by AI they're going to  be impacted by labor shortages skills changes   Etc so if you as a leader can't lead change  and facilitate change and create energy out   of change you're not going to end up keeping up  number two is we've got to relook at our model   the reason to relook at the Leadership Model is  not because it's a fun project but it gives you   a chance to come together as a leadership team  with the business group not just in HR and talk   about what is really working in our company now  what do we keep from our past and what's new most   companies have lots and lots of important  practices to keep but some things that have   changed the third of course is to lead through  behaviors you know what we found in this study   is it is not necessarily what skills you have or  what courses you went to or what books you've re   read or how much you understand the industry but  what do you do every day how do you behave how do   you react do you listen do you mimic or reinforce  the behaviors we want in others so there's lots   of things to think about unfortunately you know  the thing that disappointed me last year is the   maturity of leadership development programs is  still staggeringly low only 16% of companies   believe they're spending enough money in this area  we discovered you know from our research that the   amount of money spent on leadership development  is down significantly and you can see you know all   these things are relatively low so so there's lots  of interesting things to do here and I'll just   leave that up to you to talk about in your teams  and decide uh what changes you want to make next   thing I want to talk about is skills so there's  been a massive focus on skills skills technology   skills skills based this skills based that skills  based learning skills based Talent Mobility skills   based recruiting skills-based pay is coming let  me tell you where we're at so there was a lot of   excitement about this in the beginning of it when  we talked about LX p s and skills-based sourcing   and talent marketplaces and then everybody said  oh no we're going to put the skills stuff in the   Erp we're going to stick it in the workday skills  Cloud we're going to stick it in work you know sap   success factor we're to stick it in Oracle and  everything came to a grinding halt because those   systems weren't designed to be AI systems those  are basically Legacy in a sense skills databases   and so what we really discovered and now we're  coming out of that trough really starting now   and we're looking at much more applications the  basic issue with skills is it's everywhere the   technolog is everywhere I mean there isn't  one vendor that has a better skills infen in   everybody else they're all working on it and all  doing it in different ways the real issue is not   centralizing it and sitting around and trying  to design a global taxonomy which probably is   not worth the effort it's really applying it to  the problem and this is something we talk about   all the time with clients fall in love with the  problem not the solution skills is a solution to   something what is the thing that you're working  on is it an underperforming operation if so then   you're going to want to look at the skills of  the high performers and you're going to design   your skill solution to uncover the gaps and fill  those gaps is it a skills Gap where we actually   don't know something and we're behind then we're  going to have to bring Outsiders and we're going   to have to you know bring thirdparty data into  the skills system to figure out what skills we   don't know we don't even know what the skills are  that are missing you know oil companies are going   through this tech companies are through this or  is it the third one where we just did a merger or   moving into new industry and we're just not set up  for it and there's a whole bunch of stuff we have   to deal with what we find is the most successful  skills projects are pragmatic they are solution   oriented projects chevron's doing skills analysis  to understand the future roles of energy Engineers   Starbucks doing skills analysis to find a better  pool of leaders and supervisors and district   managers Master cards using skills to do a better  job of talent mobility and internal development   Intel is using skills to figure out how to build  better chips and and Advance their manufacturing   New York Presbyterian is trying to use skills  to rapidly increase their pipeline of clinical   professionals Baker Hughes is using skills to  try to figure out a move from their Oil Business   to their chemical business that doesn't require  sitting around for 10 years is trying to build a   corporate taxonomy those are pragmatic projects  and that's really you know the story there and   you can read more about it and talk to us if you'd  like some help recruiting now recruiting is very   complex we have a client we're working with right  now that has uh something like 42 recruiting Tools   in their stack they're a pretty big company but  you know what this is like I mean there's dozens   and dozens of tools and companies and vendors  on this we really have to spend some time this   year simplifying the technology and modernizing  it applicant tracking systems as interesting   as they were back in the early 2000s are really  just a commodity at this point it's really what   level of AI do you have what is your assessment  strategy can you speed the candidate experience   can you reduce the time it takes to get somebody  scheduled into an interview can you better Source   people these are more complex problems and I  think a lot of you that work in bigger companies   are dealing with the Legacy applications that you  have we also know that it's getting harder we just   published this we're going to be doing this on a  regular basis working with AMS the time to hire   went up by almost two days last year the number of  applicants applying is going up because applicants   are using AI tools to spray their applications to  hundreds of companies at the same time see got a   flood of applicants longer time to get people  through the process it still takes people on   average five minutes just to apply for a job with  filling out the forms creating an account doing   all that kind of stuff tools like Paradox and  other AI tools are going to revolutionize this   and so there's lots of work to do here and of  course then there's the implementation of the   talent Marketplace Talent Marketplace technology  has turned out to be exceptionally successful I   think all of you are going to want to do this this  is the link between recruiting and learning and   internal development and career and succession  management to tell you the truth and so where   this fits this is going to be a big theme for  next year it's going to affect recruiting it's   going to affect internal development it's going  to affect L&D and it's going to affect careers   so lots and lots of things going on in recruiting  and then there's the issue of talent intelligence   now we have a talent intelligence primer you  can download from our website this is really   a new idea that's only about five years old that's  really sweeping across the market and this is the   AI layer that I showed you earlier where you have  vast amounts of data at your fingertips to look   at the characteristics of all the people in your  company and hundreds of millions to billions of   people outside your company to better see what  you could be doing differently and where the   skills gaps or capability gaps may be between you  and the rest of the market and your competitors   and this is generally a technology that starts in  recruiting and then expands and moves to different   areas of HR so this is continuing to be bigger and  bigger and bigger in 2024 okay let me talk about   L&D now L&D is where I started in HR you know back  in the early 2000s so I've been involved in it for   a long time you know we've been through a lot  of eras we were in the sort of Blended learning   era and then the LMS ERA with t driven learning  and and competency modeling then we were in the   digital era where we kind of stuck everything  on YouTube and created a lot of videos and did   Collaborative Learning and crowdsource learning  and internal development and sharing of knowledge   then we're now we're in the world of learning  in the flow of Works microlearning in fact we   have a microlearning course I'm going to show  you in a minute that you're going to be able to   take yourself and all the work that happened  with L XPS and Microsoft entering the market   and now we're entering Ai and believe it or not I  actually kind of think this part of HR is going to   be as transformed as recruiting Because of AI and  the reason for that is learning is fundamentally   a Content business you try to figure out what  the problem is you look for all the content   that describes the capabilities and skills and  processes that are needed and you try to build   a course that teaches people how to do that stuff  better by the way that's what AI does if you look   at all the information you have in your process  documentation and your LMS if you put that into   an AI system like Galileo and we've been doing  that people can just ask it questions it can   understand what they're looking for and give them  an answer and point them to a video or Point them   to a course instantaneously and you don't even  have to author that content because the system   will do that for you now the tools to do this are  coming and they're not all out there yet but I   think this is going to be a massive change and so  those of you that are in L &d are going to have   a lot of fun over the next couple of months dking  on this and I like to think of this as autonomous   learning the reason I put this chart together  is there's a five level model for autonomous   driving and if you look at the autonomous driving  maturity levels that the nist uses to basically   measure car companies it's not that different from  what's been going on in learning and you guys know   those of you that have been with me all these  years these five history Pro processes actually   have happened and so your L&D teams are going  to have some really interesting opportunities   to re-engineer and probably replace a lot of  those old Technologies as this Market starts to   pick up speed and I'm very very convinced this  is happening okay and that'll really simplify   this huge stack we have of L&D technology one more  thing and I'm sure a lot of you are dealing with   this right right now I'm sure somebody has come  to you and said hey would you build a course on   AI for the rest of the company what I mean come  on AI is not a topic for everybody there's AI   for sales there's AI for marketing there's AI  for engineering there's AI for it there's trust   issues that affect the legal organization this is  the other thing that you have to think about now   is building what we call a capability Academy  for AI and we're happy to help you with that   because we've been through this process now in  many many other domains couple more topics and   I'll wrap up Dei so as you know there's all sorts  of political and societal issues fighting the Dei   initiatives for years the number of postings for  Dei Chief diversity officers dropped by 48% last   year I mean that is just staggering more than 40  40 lawsuits have been filed against companies the   educational industry is is getting attacked  by right-wing people and various other groups   that that believe Dei is a waste of money but  despite that the research that we have talking   to most of you is that this is not going away it  remains vital to the successive organizations and   it's going to continue but I think it's going to  happen this year and you can read about it in this   article and also in the research is we're going to  have to sort of shrink the size of the Dei police   Poli force or whatever you think about as your  Dei group and get it embedded in the business   because the investments in Dei and where we go  over the top and and try to teach people about   oppression or slavery or whatever it may be that  you think is the history of all this isn't really   sticking well right now with people so so I'm  not convinced that this is going to go away I   think we're going to see more and more focus on in  fact there's an article in the Wall Street Journal   just yesterday that's very much in keeping with my  thinking but we're going to have to be sensitive   to it because those of you that are in Dei jobs  are going to hear a lot of noise one more thing   pay and performance now Performance Management  is too complicated for me to talk about it's   it's a NeverEnding discussion but the area that  I think we're going to have to think more about   in 2024 is pay pay Equity as you can read about  in our research and Kathy anderas has done just   a masterful job of talking about this and teaching  people about it it is isn't an issue of how much   you pay you make it's how fairly you're paid when  we did this research we found that it is 31 times   more important to have a pay Equity strategy  than it is to pay people more money of course   people want want more money everybody wants  more money but they really want it to be done   in a fair way and we don't know if we're paying  people fairly if we have years of old performance   reviews raises that were you know distributed  unequally based on the you know the politics of   Performance Management and so the discipline  for this year and going forward is to do pay   Equity audits look at the statistical correlation  and really take this problem seriously and as you   can see in our research there's lots of ways to do  this and yet the level of maturity remains low so   so that's another one that I think to think about  this year then the final thing before I talk about   the report is HR and you know a lot of you know  we we introduced our systemic HR research around   November December and the reason we did that is  everybody was telling us about all these projects   and initiatives and tools and systems and things  they were trying to do in HR and we realized that   operating model just isn't what it used to be and  just yesterday or earlier this week I was on the   phone with MasterCard and we're walking through  how they've changed their operating model the   history of HR is of of course functional we really  built the HR profession around lots of individual   specialist jobs that grew over time this is like  a tree I think of it as a tree where you know in   the early days of HR it was mostly payroll and  benefits and then it was legal and then it was   safety and then it was operations and you can  see if you go around this tree sure enough you   know all of these domains kind of popped into  the world of HR over time well where we are now   of course is that the problems we're dealing  with are very interconnected we can't think   of these as a specialist for this special this  most of the problems we have require many or   all of those disciplines together so we have  to think about the HR function as a almost a   Professional Services Group with a set of products  and offerings and a set of services for employees   and that's dramatically different from where we  are we call that that systemic HR we also know by   the way that when you do that and when you improve  the capability of the HR Professionals in the   company the revenue goes up this is a statistical  correlation of four categories of companies high   growth companies medium low growth and no- growth  companies relative to their HR capabilities green   is good to excellent and our capability model blue  is world class and you can see the fast growth   companies are twice as likely to have highly  skilled HR people and that's not an accident   that's because a lot of these decisions on who to  hire and who to promote and how to pay people and   how to reward people and how to create a great  culture and org design are really done through   the skills and expertise that you guys have so  so so this remains a continued issue this year   to say nothing of all the work we have to do to  learn about AI so how do do you get this stuff   essentially there are four real deliverables here  there's the report which includes a 2024 planning   checklist it's about 40 pages long it is available  to members of our Academy and corporate members   there is the infographic which all of you can get  for free which is available through a link you'll   see at the end of this report and then there was  a course we built we built a microlearning course   that is a fascinating relatively easy lift you  can take on your PC it's free you can scan this   OR you know type this in your phone you can run  it on your phone under SMS or on WhatsApp for   those of you that are not members of the jba I'm  not telling you to join the jba just to get this   report there's way more in the jba the jba as you  can see here has 25 certificate courses we put a   lot of our research in here it has 90 primers  on various parts of HR tools ideas there have   more than 60 or 70,000 HR professionals that have  come through here so I encourage you to check it   out as part of thinking about the predictions  because you know in addition to reading about   the predictions and sort of grappling with  all this stuff you might want to learn about   it and see what other people are saying and  and if you're not a corporate member the jba   is a really simple easy affordable way for you  to get into this information so I think we are   in for a very very exciting important year ahead  I think the role of HR is going to be escalated   and elevated even further and I couldn't be more  thankful and excited that so many of you joined us   today we're going to be going to virtually every  conference around the world we we always like to   talk to you and you know I really want to thank  you for coming and paying attention Terry let's   go back to you and tell me what kind of question  questions people have okay thank you Josh we have   had an amazing amount of energy in the chat we  are using the Q&A function so the first question   that has been upvoted from Caroline Clark is are  we seeing any differences globally related to   burnout as an example is it more prevalent in the  US versus Germany for instance or is this across   the globe it is worse in the US and Asia than  it is in a in Europe believe it or not I think   the reason for that is the European countries are  more mature and older there's more Social Services   there's more unions there's more understanding  of the balance between work and economic life   you know we're I feel like the United States is  like a teenager just keep pushing all the time   to go a little bit harder and we're a little bit  hard on ourselves with it but I think it varies   by company I think the bigger variation is not the  global issue it's the companies there's a body of   research we have called the healthy organization  that walks through the issues in mental health and   well-being and basically what it shows is that  you know a lot of the issues in wellbe have to   do management culture you know are the goals do  we have too many stretch goals are we listening   to people is it inclusive company those are much  bigger factors than the geography great thank you   Josh okay the next question how do you recommend  that we train leaders to effectively manage in   this environment as many of their skills need  to be developed or improved well you know you   saw the research and you can read more on that I  think there's two very simple things number one   is leaders need need to take care of themselves  leaders are under even more stress than employees   because the leaders are thinking about the job  they have plus taking care of all the people   around on them so so I think you need programs for  leader support leader development the second is   connecting leaders together I think what happens  in most companies and this is true in my career is   the problem that you're facing in your group your  department your store whatever it is is actually   not that different than the guy down the road  who's got the same group you do in a different   department and so bringing leaders together at the  same level peers to talk to each other is another   really simple way to give leaders the perspective  on how to deal with some of these you know human   centered issues that everybody's facing and then  there's thousands and thousands of courses and   I won't mention all of them but those are the  two biggest things I'd recommend right okay how   do you see the increasing number of War conflicts  impacting World Companies and people functions in   particular War conflicts we had some guys from  Ukraine at the conference last year obviously   if you're doing business in Israel or Ukraine or  you know parts of Palestine you have huge issues   you have employees that are under attack you have  people that don't have homes you have people that   don't have food you have people that are worried  you need to take care of that first you know those   human life or death survival issues are at the  bottom of maso's pyramid and honestly that's not   stuff a lot of HR people were designed to do but  we have to do it you know I talked to the chro of   Oracle last year and she said I asked her what are  you guys working on she said the number one thing   I did was worry about Ukraine because we had a lot  of business in Russia and we had to shut it down   we had employees there we had engineering teams  there you know so so that's that's the main thing   and then there's the issue of sort of the social  stress that people have debating them and I don't   I don't think you know most Business Leaders want  to take a position on Israel versus Palestinians   and so forth but they need to you know reflect and  sort of tell people that look I know this is a big   topic you can talk about it in your ergs we as an  organization may or may not take a position on it   but we understand that there are differences and  we want you to be nice and inclusive to each other   as we discuss these issues because there are no  Rights and Wrongs here you know even though you   know you may be on one side of the other yes it's  very complex uh environment we're operating in I   think we've got time for one more question as AI  advances could it reach a point where it surpasses   human intelligence and HR decision making okay  I was just listening to you know Zuckerberg is   talking about it again and all the AI guys by  the way you know I have a list of podcasts for   those of you want to know what the podcasts are  Listen to I don't think AI is going to be smarter   than humans that's my own personal opinion I  mean I know how it works I know what it does   it's very fast at assimilating and analyzing  and predicting information you have to really   remember that we are actually emotional beings  I mean our emotions actually rule us most of   us are not that logical I mean we have logical  moments but under the covers of the logical is   how do I feel about this do I like this person  is this a threat is this good is this bad am   I in a good mood did I get enough sleep did I  not get enough sleep and that's what makes us   what we are I don't think AI is going to build  you know the world's best art the world's best   movies I mean you know you look at you know I was  just listening to the founder of um Pixar who was   in a uh podcast he said look he said AI is going  to make all these characters easy to build we're   going to build animations and cartoons it's  going to be great but we need Stories the AI   doesn't come up with the stories we come up with  the stories and the stories are human stories and   that goes by the way for sales for marketing for  product design I mean there are huge sort of human   nature things that happen in organizations that  I don't think AI is gonna do so I'm not worried   about that myself great we are at time so thank  you everybody for your engaging questions Q&A um   as mentioned in the chat you will be receiving  the recording and um and the infographic in the   next few days um and with that I wish you a very  successful 2024 thank you all thank you Terry bye [Music] everybody [Music]

2024-02-09 02:56

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