Friends welcome you morning review. let's take a look at the current situation. what news is happening and how it will affect the movement of the market. in the morning and afternoon on the dollar, oil and gold, the ruble and other assets. so friends let's start with calendars. First, let's see what we had yesterday. Yesterday, nothing significant
happened except for the speech of the American President. As for the affairs of today's Saudi Arabia, Eid al-Adha, with which I congratulate them. further statistics came out from China, the consumer price index is declining. what it says. This suggests that consumption in
China is not growing and the Chinese government has relied on the growth of domestic consumption. at the same time , producer prices are rising . that is, a vicious circle arises . what is produced in accordance with world needs and the growth of world markets for raw materials, and so on, it grows, but inside China itself, nothing is accelerated, and so on. today at 12 o'clock the index of economic sentiment in germany then at two o'clock the monthly report of trustees and at 5 o'clock the number of job openings in the United States labor market. so friends, let's move on to the news agenda. But
as far as the world economy is concerned, a traditional shock is threatening, but in fact it all starts with cost inflation. because the money that produces them first of all they go to raw materials. since the stake on the restoration of the world economy here turns out to be such a paradoxical moment when, on the one hand, injections into the economy are needed in order to support the recovery so that everything does not collapse, and on the other hand, this money again goes where it hinders development. and indeed, if you look at the Bloomberg index of raw materials, it turns out that this is a weekly time since March 2020, the growth is more than 50-60 percent. what it says. Yes, everything is good there, prices have jumped and the demand for raw materials is excellent. but the problem is
that this complex index, which reflects all the extracted raw materials and non-extracted raw materials, what is needed for the production of goods with a value, it has already significantly exceeded the level that was in the range of 18 at the beginning of the 20th year, that is, before the onset of the crisis. now all the costs associated with raw materials are obtained, they are significantly higher by 15 20 percent than they were at the time of the emergence of this crisis. that is, the costs have increased significantly in the raw materials sector, at least, and economic growth will stifle this. Well, as a result of this , the brakes failed in inflation, absolutely right. prices
are rising dramatically all over the world. in Russia this is generally a disaster, because in Russia, in fact, monopolies run everything. and therefore Russia is the most vulnerable to this topic . In America, a new interesting topic has arisen which significantly influenced oil prices.
Demand for oil is a cyberattack, it is a colony and a plan for an oil pipeline that passes through America. and, accordingly, now they are beginning to talk about the fact that Russia is not involved. Well, since the conversations have gone, then most likely it will soon turn out to be involved. this is a completely
logical move. I can’t judge the degree of involvement of non-involvement, but I’m sure this card will be played in order to create a certain tension and leverage. At the same time, there was another interesting moment - the intensification of the investigation of the Dutch syndrome in the United States, when American diplomats began to feel bad about themselves. but it all
came from havana. and accordingly to the fact that the American diplomats felt bad, they decided that the employees of the GRU were involved . but now, somehow suddenly, against the background of a cyberattack on an oil pipeline , this topic suddenly came up. and accordingly, they are apparently looking for some additional skeletons in the closet in order to activate new sanctions. so friends further different news agenda in russia the head of the ministry of natural resources told when russia will run out of oil and gas there, in my speech, if i am not mistaken, it is about 50-60 years. but actually already. For the next year, it is planned that the world consumption of oil as fuel combustion , at least for the time being on paper in America and Europe, will either decrease by 30% or even drop to zero.
and therefore here is the period of time that is allocated for this too significant. then there are two moments such a thing as stocks, they are constantly changing and something about the storm is being revised or something has been clarified, it turns out that there is plus or minus here and there and the next moment. here, rather, another trend is more important, which is going on both in Russia and around the world, it is associated with the fact that the cost of production is growing. but this is a completely objective
process, because as it is mined, it is necessary to penetrate deeper and deeper into the thickness and, accordingly, the deeper they penetrate, the more expensive this process becomes . it is inherent not only for russia it is inherent in almost all countries to the least extent it is inherent, of course, for saudi arabia and qatar for those countries that are located on the peninsula. because they are really quite easy to extract and reserves and there are a lot of them. in most other countries this is a problem that is connected, no matter how much stocks, because it is a paper thing, but with the cost of production, it of course becomes more active and it begins to play a significant role. but again, this is now at the level of conversations when there
is an increase in raw material prices in the medium term, if the transition to green energy and green technologies is successful, the cost of oil and gas production is growing and it naturally will not play a significant role. the only question is how these statements, these debates, which not only in Russia are raised but throughout the world, they will affect oil prices, apparently the fact that this topic both in the West and in Russia suddenly began to be raised. after all, it is like an additional leverage in order to accelerate oil prices, such as oil production, and so on and so forth.
and so a new retailer, the eastern union, appears in russia . what a beautiful name. well this is good because the more retailers the more and more they will be forced to fight with each other. and accordingly it will have a positive impact on the price level and on the quality of service and predicted a slowdown in global growth due to an aging population. Well, thanks cap, we didn't know that. all of Europe for more than a decade
and the United States and all developed countries, by the way, and not developed countries, they have reduced the rate of population growth , that is, fewer children are born in a family and, accordingly, due to this , the problem of aging is immediately on the agenda . but this one follows from the other. accordingly, mine predicted a slowdown in global growth, this was understandable.
here, in fact, there is no need to predict anything . the question is, what will be the way out of this problem. the problem is really serious. that is, if at first it was positive, when the Second World War ended, there was a recovery, that is, people realized that they could save money and then live well. this is quite natural. that is, now
against the backdrop of really improving life on the one hand. on the other hand, against the backdrop of the fact that there is probably some kind of universal universal mind that does not allow humanity to enjoy to such an extent that the earth simply choked. now in the near future there will be significant efforts to solve this problem. there are two obvious solutions to this problem . the first is for more people to be born as before. but this will lead to an environmental
crisis . and in general on the planet. and the second point is connected with the fact that a person maintains a productive life as long as possible . that is, this requires the proper development of medicine, and first of all, of course , this is what is associated with genetic technologies. why the problem of aging it stems from biological processes. because a person constantly
continuously, every second every minute, there is a synthesis of new DNA, and this synthesis proceeds through first the disintegration of the DNA helix into two RNA molecules and then each RNA molecule forms a new DNA. Thus, we. we live we exist by this renewal. but the problem is that every time this process occurs, new DNA becomes shorter and therefore, in fact, a person is aging.
All these negative processes with age, they are exclusively related to the fact that DNA and on the other hand have the following problem, it is associated with the so-called accumulation of errors during translation or translation. this problem really is, it is less urgent now in the near future there will be an acute question regarding the development of such genetic preparations of proteins that will allow humans to stop the aging process. such work is already underway to terminate dna. I think it will have a breakthrough in the next 10-15 years . breakthroughs in development will reach a qualitatively new level when people really will introduce certain created biological preparations of proteins that will negate the aging process. I immediately see a new problem here, because then, in fact , a situation arises when people will live forever and the question will be relevant as to whether people are practically not produced at all. but this is already the next stage of development. further began the leader of the
convoy according to the plan warned that even if supplies were restored there would still be a shortage of fuel in the United States of oil and fuel. So, in general, it started and stopped the cyber attack while cutting off the data flow that went to Russia. that is, apparently they found something or followed some traces that lead to Russia. in fact, it is a moot point if you can find any traces. the question really is who is really behind this , because here there are a lot of beneficiaries of this cyberattack . in fact, all oil exporters, they can be considered as beneficiaries of this attack, large American oil holdings that are engaged in the production of fuel and gasoline within the country, they are also interested in this. And so the expansion of Chinese companies
producing electric vehicles to the European market begins, in particular, which considers itself to be the main competitor of Tesla, it is trying to enter through the Norwegian market. in fact, the Norwegian car market is very tiny and as a kind of jerk to enter it is possible, but it seems to me here it would be more sensible to start, for example, from the English market or from the French one, I think it would be more relevant. my friends, this is quite interesting news, it is very controversial from my point of view, but nevertheless it can have very far- reaching consequences. the fact is that in the Seychelles
, where one of the highest percentages in the world is quite high, there has been an increase in morbidity. that is, in the long term, this may indicate that the vaccines that they produced are not very effective and do not save the situation. this is a rather disturbing call. but there is one but. the fact is that there the main lead falls on the Chinese and Indian vaccines. the Indian
vaccine is being prepared under license. that is, it may be quite a stone in the garden of Chinese and Indian vaccines, or maybe it really turns out that all vaccines are not very effective against the species. I think in the near future we will find out how this situation develops and similar cases. and if vaccines don't work it is really a wake-up call. and if
this is nothing more than, let's say, not very well-made vaccines or unfair competition against Chinese Indian manufacturers, I think this will also surface in the near future one or two months. so friends. but here is a seemingly paradoxical situation. raw materials are growing the index of raw materials just flies into space and technology companies fall. why. because tech companies are generally the beneficiaries of the current recovery. before that they were the beneficiaries because everyone was at home and now they are the beneficiaries of the restoration. and accordingly, all this
talk about the fact that raw materials are growing unjustifiably, the inflation of costs is being pumped up leads to the fact that it begins to flourish. Well, we must also remember that now the month of May is approaching the middle, so there is nothing unnatural in its landing . friends. and now a new problem may come from chile. Chile is the world's copper production vega and now a new problem has arisen there. in addition to the fact that there are strikes, mass discontent now, as it turned out, may arise and there is already a shortage of sulfuric acid and sulfuric acid is needed for what not for the production of copper and, accordingly, an increase in prices for it and a shortage may lead to interruptions in the production and supply of copper ... well, or another round of copper prices. so friends here again, a
question that concerns the impact of population aging on the world economy and the economy and in general on the earth. that's just China, he turned out to be at the forefront because this country in which it has been developing for many decades, it is generally the leaders of pension development and, in general, the ideology that stands at the head of it is a primate symbol of pension development in any area, the opposite of pension development is intensive development when resources are used efficiently. and now just China, it will find itself in a more difficult situation than Europe. because there, due to the restrictions introduced in the 70s
in my years, one family, one child, there is now in general the lowest population growth and the most significant increase in the old population for an economy that is focused on production. it's just a nightmare. Well, and accordingly, here is the ideology that the Chinese government is now trying to implement about the growth of domestic consumption, it is likely to give a significant breakdown in the next year or two, so on friends, let's go back to the Baltic weekly time schedule. Well, here the situation is probably even worse than that of the index of raw materials.
bloomberg he generally just flew away growth compared to 20 m in general three times. and this growth continues and, accordingly, it spins inflationary scenarios , the cost of costs increases. that is, this is an additional factor that at a certain point in time, I think it will already come somewhere in the fall, when this inflation that caused growth, it actually turns out to be inflation and a fall, so on, the Chinese stock index spent all 300 this week, but again you see so far here it is critical to break through no, it is trading in consolidation at the moment, of course, this movement will have a negative impact on world markets on the Russian one, it opened with the flu down. but now he is trying to close this gap, not sure what will happen today. but in any case, there is a certain
negative, but it will most likely be moderate, because after the discovery with the flu, an attempt was made to recover, which has not yet been completed, I think today it will not end like that friends. but for us, since it began to crumble before that, it grew on the fact that everything is closed and people are leaving online now it is pouring into everything, and people from online come to the surface a little like this, so incomprehensible. Well, look, in fact, today 13 thousand 200 if it does not break through this network if from the reached value and does not reach 13 200 it will turn around and about consolidate and grow. it would be a good sign that indicated that he does not intend to fall yet if this movement continues 13,200 breaks through the next target will be in the area of 12,000,380 and possibly lower. and here
already, as it were, a double top, it can be from here to 11 311. Therefore, just from the middle of May, I think this week this situation will be determined will not go down. so friends gave 500 today it is about settling in solidarity with China is the middle of futures. but look here actually with him everything is just 4100 thousand then four thousand eighty-five well four thousand eighty.
if this range does not break through. all this continues to be the consolidation of trades. as soon as this range is taken, the downward movement can go very rapidly. so our friend X yesterday
he showed phenomenal growth and closed above eighteen nineteen five. the call to the beach is not yet alarming because the twenty did not break through. but today, if the movement continues at such a rate, then, accordingly , today there will be an attempt to take 23 marches and the markets will begin to crumble. so friends gave the dollar index daytime . but look here actually the first goal of the movement which was at 90 we made now here the next task will be solved will not go to break through 90 point 6 90 point seven. if this is not done, then everything is fine. the next stopping point is 89 17. if such a break is made, then an impulse of movement is immediately formed here, the
target of which will be first 91 then 91 5. today an important bet on germany comes out. let's see how it will recoup not recoup over the day. here a reversal occurred and, accordingly, if this reversal breaks through 96 90 x 70 x this range, then this turns out to be a reversal and it will go somewhere here if it does not break through. that is, here we
come a little closer and we will go to 89 17 in the next few days.This is how friends gave the gold, but look, gold is in tandem with the dollar index in many ways. it cannot be said that it is directly one to one, but it is very strongly interconnected.
at the moment, on gold, the question will be whether or not there will be a refusal to break through. 18 21. If such a rollback occurs, then we leave for gold to correct. the first target will be 1800 to break through 1800. all this growth is most likely canceled out if it does not break through 1800. all
these movements will pay off and, accordingly, they will drive gold because at the top he has a lot of targets up to making an interception. passing to the hourly time here we have the following situation. if today before 15:30 it will be eighteen in 1828, then for gold we will go first to 1821 and then we will most likely consolidate in this range. if here does not arise perfectly then this whole consolidation of the set of positions leads to the fact that in the afternoon we will go to 18 47 and then 1855 1854 possibly even higher. so there won't be a question here. friends further oil brent
weekly oil a little andrei and trying to go down but not in vain to break this pipeline so friends. but when switching to a daytime flight here we will not have a task now at the moment to break through 67 if 67 60 65 is generally excellent. all this will lead to the fact that from here from the current values or from 60 73 there will be a rebound and, accordingly, the target of this rebound from the movement at 71 and 5 and higher. if a failure occurs here, then we will most likely leave to test 64. in fact, all these movements in oil that are now going on, the critical level is 60 if 60 is a bit, then, accordingly, she asks to give and perhaps even very significantly.
but if 60 is impossible, all these kickbacks will pay off and it will either consolidate here or go higher. but again, the same events with the American pipelines with cyber attack, they confirm that, in general, there is a lot of interest in the fact that oil either grows or remains at the reached values, so on futures rtc daily. here we essentially had a reversal and now we will see how to break through its level. but here the last frontier is 152 thousand, in fact, by a four-hour reversal. information on the clock. the target of the movement is
here 146 700 respectively 152 if we keep this level. that is, there will be a consolidation and an attempt to rebound if the nearest target does not hold the movement is here here. further if there is the next wave of sales and 145 thousand 300 145 then here the movement is already below 140. today I think we will not achieve the goal we will not achieve 150 thousand if we achieve that we stay well in the same range if there is a legal one, then there is a high probability that we really do it ... friends next euro dollar daytime take. but
see the daily time friend. here the level is a whole 295. if this level is not now broken through in the near future , then all these funds that occur they will lead to the redemption to the accumulation of the euro, their movement here by one point 23. if this level is now being mastered in the near future , the target of the movement will be in area% 82. if we consider locally within the day of the hour girl, I have now moved upward on the euro . the purpose of this impulse is one 21 75 criterion that this impulse will not pass this movement surf 1 whole 21 20.
but the impulse of the upward movement has already gone. so friends gave the ruble dollar by the sea our braces are the main and main here for a week we have a reversal. the purpose of this reversal is a return to 7: 6 6: 3 and then testing 77 35. in which case this reversal will not happen now if there is a repeated movement and a breakdown 73 5 73 3. passing to the day raid here we have formed an upward movement according to the criteria of that that this movement will not pass this downward movement to the strengthening of the ruble and about the fight 73 3. at the moment here for today
I think there will be 74 80 of all movements . now there is a progressive growth and the goal of this growth is 74 87 here. in which case this growth today will not receive development, it will not receive development if now there is a correctional rollback and break through 74 and 11 74. But if such a simple happens now, then most likely today we will go to bargain here equal to 73 8 73 and 6. this is possible but this requires a breakthrough in oil if it does not happen. here the
structure of the movement to 74 87 has already lined up.so friends gave Sberbank the weekly time the first target which is at 323 almost made the next target 345 350 now at the moment it plays a significant role whether or not there will be a corruption rollback to break through 310 more precisely, even 310 307. now if this the range does not break through, in spite of everything, Sberbank will trade here and accumulate before the next breakthrough to 345 350. If a legal one arises here, it is very likely that Sberbank will go into the range of 296 300 friends further Gazprom daily. his goal was at 256. now at the current moment. what the level 239 238 wanted to pay attention to if
this level is broken through, then most likely the movement will go, the target of which will be a return here to this range. if there is no straight line, then all this passion is a reversal, it turns into consolidation and the impulse will go from here, the target of which will be 256. so here we have a very interesting picture of Gazprom , or in the near future today, before lunchtime, we may have a hangover from the current value or rather from the range 240 to the current value. if such a hang-up does not happen in the near future, he will start the chairman. the first target of the movement will be here in the area of 2030 63. then the movement can go further by 230 friends further gmc gmk approached its key level which is 270. here we have what
is important here we have a level of 26,000 26,000 if we are as a result of this a rollback all the same about the volume, it is very likely today tomorrow, and so on, the GMC goes to the area of% 2. if this does not happen here, then as a result of consolidation we will get an impulse from here, the purpose of which is to break through the network through 28 thousand 250 until a downward movement is drawn to a greater extent and consolidation in the region of 26 27 150, respectively 26 thousand, takes it down immediately . if we don’t buy strength and there is no time for buildup there will be a jerk friends all the basic tools. thanks for your attention.
2021-05-15