09.04.Курс ДОЛЛАРА на сегодня. НЕФТЬ.ЗОЛОТО.VIX.SP500. РТС.Курс РУБЛЯ.АКЦИИ ММВБ.Инвестиции.Трейдинг
friends welcome morning review let's look at what events are happening, what to expect today and what movements are expected in the dollar of oil and gold and other key assets this morning and afternoon, let's start with the calendar of economic events, statistics on China have already been released today what I would like to draw attention to here there is an increase in the index and consumer prices and producer prices, this is a rather positive moment, this suggests that both the consumer part and the production part of China are increasing momentum, but there is a certain problem with China now we are with you and we will discuss in detail so on at 9:00 Germany industrial production and the trade balance, you see, unlike most developed countries, Germany has a positive trade balance and this means that it is now pulling us to the top and the economy, because, in fact, for a developed country now this is a rather rare phenomenon, developed countries prefer to export debt, including but Germany is an exception 1 not only exports goods and technologies, but also provides significant assistance itself to other European countries , but further from the fact that for us the most important thing was amazed, we were not particularly interested in the United States from 15 30 base producer price index this report you to the number of active drilling and further in fact, an array of yew and let's go back to China, what is happening there, but what about the producer price index now, at the current moment, the growth of the producer price index has returned, in fact, to the pre-crisis moment of the country itself, this positively indicates that there is a demand for their direct products and there is every opportunity for china as a locomotive to pull the entire world economy, but in china there is such a problem as hidden debt and now the growth of defaults has begun among developers and among local authorities who, in order to develop infrastructure and build up, are also collecting debts but for the current the moment the situation that has arisen, it already acquires a chain price different character and at any moment can get out of control, that is, already the number of defaults for 2021 in monetary terms, it has become very significant and painful, and this is how it looks in percentage terms, that is, on the one hand, we see it seems like it is going in China a rather rapid growth in demand for industrial products, but on the other hand, these defaults and the so-called shadow financial credit sector are gradually starting to make themselves felt, and therefore, in the near future, China, in general, can become a starting point in order to, but even if the market did not collapse, then at least horror-horror, he can catch up, but here is the distribution of defaults, respectively, what can be seen from this map from this map it can be seen that it is precisely those regions that are industrialized, they are most under pressure, but passing the schedule of the Chinese yuan monthly timeframe we can see here that the last month ended the cycle of weakening and the cycle of strengthening is really with Now a cycle of weakening has begun precisely because of the weakening of the yuan and there were many complaints from the United States of China because the cheaper the yuan, the more competitive Chinese goods and services are, and now we can see that this point is, in general, that what was convenient for the American, it has now sunk into oblivion, the yuan began to weaken well, and the consequence of this process will probably be an exacerbation between the United States and China, and plus to everything, those problems are added here, a huge number of defaults, especially among developers and with everything related to the resilience of infrastructure development In the near future, it is possible that some negative events in China may occur in connection with this, but among other things, in general, there may be some one-time event here that will greatly affect the market, for example, a large Chinese developer will declare bankruptcy or not will have time to save him, in general, you have previously observed such training situations a couple of times so, accordingly, if measures are not taken during the bankruptcy of some large Chinese construction company, it can have an extremely negative effect on the Chinese market and further as a house of cards on the American and world stock markets, so friends, but let's see what is the situation with positions in derivatives in Farsi yesterday, at the close, a bet was made on the fact that futures on the RTS index today will continue to grow further on Sberbank, and legal entities are betting on the fact that Sberbank will rebound today and Gazprom will grow further the same situation on the rebound and on the growth of Gazprom shares, etc. friends dollar bet on the fact that the dollar will grow against the ruble euro ruble a similar picture on the growth of the currency against the ruble euro dollar bet on the fact that the euro against the dollar about already trust oil here the bet on the fact that oil will grow you will see what a paradox the rate on the weakening of the ruble against currencies on the growth of the Russian market and oil, silver is a good bet today on the growth of silver, but by gold here is a less optimistic situation, the bet is on the fact that gold will be adjusted today so friends further Chinese fund in yandex site 300 day timeframe but in fact we see that there is most likely growth and consolidation above the level of 5000, which did not work out and now there is a return to this consolidation which 5100 4950 now there is a lot of material on China about the growth of bankruptcies in those related to construction and the issuance of various municipal bonds, there is a very widely developed so-called shadow lending sector I have repeatedly said why it has arisen right now because the beginning of April is closing the first quarter, reports appear and financial results on activities, respectively, all these data begin to emerge just in the first week of April, well, when they have already started to provide some kind of reporting and, accordingly, all sorts of interesting things like that in China began to appear, so on the American stock market of the CIS for futures snt but here for now and children attempt a corrective rollback in general in an amicable way today it would be necessary to roll back, but because a week is even more than a week, upward movement here at least some release of steam is necessary and I suppose all the same, probably we should roll back somewhere at 4050 today, but here Of course, there is no sense in betting right now on a pullback, because here there should be at least some reversal formations, if about 4 hours of wick there are already all the conditions for a movement to occur today well at least by 4080 and ideally somewhere here 4060 and even 4050, of course, taking into account such a powerful pressure, well, here it is not even believed that there may be some kind of rollback, but nevertheless, from my point of view, taking into account the fact that, whatever one may say, there is a gradual decrease in volume , a dome is already looming here, which should start to take shape gradually so friends gave the dollar index a four-hour timeframe here we have today an attempt at a correctional glad how much I think this is an attempt at a correctional rebound about Probably not ninety-two and four will now lead to the criteria for the day that this rebound will not happen, this downward movement and, accordingly, a breakdown value of 90 18 if this happens there this is the whole movement, it develops systematically in points 91 and 5 if you don't have such a thing today what happens we get a correctional rollback to for the beginning 90 24 and then we'll see that is, we see that now at the beginning of the Russian trading session everything develops in such a way that the cards passed the dollar the dollar goes further the week's day timeframe now the week's is not traded this is yesterday's data that we are here we see that he came to area 17, which means the volatility has decreased very much and it is now completely call in order for the water of the beginning of the March 2020 events, but here I am quite confidently a figure for a reversal, therefore the current formation indicates that there will be either a rapid movement from here to 15 maybe even 13, or from here he should tighten because this is the state of the whole a little unnatural to the disposition of forces that is now able from my point of view so friends next brent oil daily timeframe well for today oil since the end of the week it is trying to adjust and go to sixty-two and five and possibly even 62 but on the hourly timeframe we have happened here a reversal and now the target is moving, which is 62 and 662 and 5 then we will see it will not break through and 6235 if not, then there will be accumulation and, accordingly, we will consolidate in the range of 63 562 55 here, while the movement is going on the hourly timeframe, its target, I thought where - here so friends further gold daily timeframe but look here 1752 this level was taken yesterday now it should gain a foothold at this level now nevertheless there is an attempt at a correctional pullback to 1735 but at the current moment 4 hours chart if there is a breakout of 1747 it is very likely this movement it will lead to 1730 5 5 here here to this value if there is no breakdown then it here they will buy and there will be a return movement, the goal of which will be to sign 1758 and in case of a breakdown it needs to gain a foothold above 1766 I do not think that this week we will get such a result, but this week it is important to close above 1752 so friends continue to silver the daily timeframe for silver as well as for gold the trend went up the target of this movement, but for the beginning 26.4 twenty six and seven, here in this range today there is an attempt at a corrective pullback to 25 2485 here in this range Russian yuriks have bet on the rebound of silver and look at the hour timeframe here the following situations in the next few hours, if 25 and 3 are broken, then we have a movement from here today, the goal of this movement is to test 2568 here, if there is a breakdown there and we immediately roll back the target of the movement will be around 25 15-25 so friends next euro dollar four hour timeframe well, as you can see, the trees do not grow to the skies, now a correctional rollback has started, well, there is nothing wrong with it, it’s as if for one the whole 1871 maybe this will last here the main thing is that this movement does not lead to the breakout of 1 whole 1855 because if this is very likely this rollback it will become uncontrollable will lead to one whole 18 until this value is broken all these movements they are, I think most likely they will be bought out and then there will be an attempt to drive the euro by 1 whole 1928 to break through now at the moment the target of this movement is moving 1 whole 1874 if the basis for this movement to end and then we'll see how and what will happen critically not to break through 1 whole 1855 if we do not break it, then this whole trend down, I think the most likely battle is to swim and a rebound will be formed friends gave a ruble dollar and a girl is already yelling there, but look there is a movement with the aim of pates city again this strong inversion level is well and for us quite an important point how will the close of this week be higher under it or lower under it here I draw your attention to these values, but even much the stronger one is lower and there is 80-85 because this is a kind of demarcation line after which the process can take on an uncontrollable character and, accordingly, breaking through the consolidation above this value, it awakens dark forces , so to speak, so to speak, well, that's 4 hours wick yes there is a movement now it is likely that the movement will continue and there will be a testing of the strong level 77 35 but today the most likely movement in the range 76 65-70 735 here is now the most probable scenario is a movement to 77 2577 35 here and further if no shocks arise we fight back from here and roll back to 76 75 if here there is no end and it starts to bargain over this value, then the next targets will very quickly be 7777 right here, and, accordingly, closing this week above this value alone will indicate that next week the depreciation of the national currency is very likely it will continue, we remember from April 21 and very likely the geopolitical situation before this date he but the question of what will happen next is still open, but in general, in my whole situation, the forecast is connected with geopolitics, the forecast will not be extremely so friends, then cut in the daily timeframe here, a lateral is formed based on the clock of the century, the situation also indicates that the lateral upper border is 91 and 9, the lower border of 91 and 4, as soon as there is a movement that will lead to an approach to these values, let's see what is there and how it will happen while the situation in euros rubles is not completely clear on the one hand, he looks up, but on the other hand, the euro is now declining against the dollar therefore, it depends on the dynamics in world markets and the dynamics in oil for the time being, as it were, for the euro, the ruble, despite the lawyers' rate that the euro will grow against the ruble, I do not see much movement, and well, here, probably, we are now going to 91 90 91 92 but then let's see if there is a breakdown, then maybe you are not Steam 92 and 6, but so far, as it were, the euro against the ruble does not look so zealous confidently as the dollar against the ruble so druze I gave the futures on the RTS index here the target of this movement is testing 140,000 140,000 that 39,500 if the breakout is so slightly wrong 140 thousand six hundred 140400 if the breakout of this range is then the next stopping point is at 139,500 if there is no breakout here we fight back and the target of the movement will be the upper border of 142,000 if the upper border is broken, further movement to 146 pizza will go, I think such a scenario is still unlikely because the rather negative trends in the market, the dollar index began to grow and therefore it seems more logical to me to move testing for the breakdown of 140 600 144 100 and leaving for 139,500 now if 39,500 is being held, we will already see if it is not protracted and does not lead to the release of large volumes upon the fact of this breakdown, then a miracle will form today a rebound of us 141700 if there is a confident breakdown of the same next stopping point will be in the region of one hundred and thirty-five thousand for now I think most likely on the move here and then perhaps on 139 pizza so friends further Sberbank four-hour timeframe well here what is noteworthy we get such an extended consolidation 278 and 5 296 the current movement if in the morning there is a breakdown of 281 and a half then we go to test 278 and 5 here if this breakdown does not happen with in the morning, we can bounce back to 288 and that's it, but within the framework of the market dynamics, the fact that now, in general, the negative is being pumped up here is more logical, after all, downward movements and testing of 278 and 5 so friends further Gazprom there is a great insert for growth but judging by the hourly chart we are in a lateral position two hundred twenty-four and a half 223, taking into account the fact that China has asked for general positive dynamics while there is probably no movement for Gazprom to open at 223, perhaps even 221 220 here , to these values for Gazprom, I think it is advisable to see how the opening will be and accordingly, then when it goes down either to 223 or to 221 after the situation is stabilized, I think you can examine it at a rebound, again, if there is a breakdown of 221 220, then it may drag on more strongly, but at the moment, let's say the prerequisites for this have not been created here, it is more likely that there will be a rebound from these values and even a rebound is very likely to be at 223, but here you need to remember about stops because the situation, as it were, carries with it very large geopolitical risks ivy in China there is a downward movement, and therefore, on the one hand, there is quite a reason for a jump, but you can only make a bet on this if there is a reversal formation during my appearance like this main tool thanks for your attention
2021-04-10 07:11
