Tech Sell Off. What is Next for NIO, PLTR, SOFI, BABA...?
Felix a good evening from Hong Kong a happy Saturday morning to most of you appreciate you joining in for this weekend special I love this Saturday lies because we going to talk about things a little bit more peace and quiet without the stock prices rallying up and down there's a great opportunity too kind of question and ask things and think about what's happening next week so let me show you a cuddle little bit of a plan here but I'm very happy to be thrown off course by your questions we've got data out of China is once again Paul substantially ahead of Europe in terms of Evie cells we also have more sort of kovid news out of China the China Chengdu auto show which is one of the biggest months just got cancelled we have discussed motorbike using byd batteries an interesting twist isn't it DDA think that business model is being shattered and then I also want to briefly look at my I think ride and workouts on the way out and speaking of businesses who are struggling we can look a little bit newer preonic that's coming up on the 11th so make sure you join me for that earnings call that of course your questions as always the most important party really Nicholas Eric welcome to the cool great to have you on here as always I truly appreciate you enable subscript sand your likes and we are almost at 24000 can you believe it for the channel I'm very very excited by that and his a second Nicholas lots of you here I'll be aware Patrick Andy from the UK when will use institutions like niorep well earnings are coming up we can definitely go through that a bit here and of course I answer everything as well and see a huge welcome to you there to let me show you this little chats so this is the share of EV sales globally and why can you see well this orange line appear is shining and I'm using my magic Pen and the blue line here is basically Europe and recorded the EU for now all I know they're not the same sort of political statement and then we have down here about 12% we have the US of A and the EU just put the number in is a bad 38% global market share and china about 47 so you can see that I'm going to change depending something a little bit more serious so what does that mean well you can see why Tesla is in China in Europe aggressively because that is 88% of the market basically that 70 not quite right seventy 85% of the market it is obviously a bit for the rest of the world so those two markets matter and that's why I like companies like nio are already at home and the 47% market and now moving into the 38% back H&M market and for this moment ignoring the us because at the moment in terms of volume it's a bit of an irrelevance with incentives and tax credits and all these things all the infrastructure bill that apparently us lawmakers work Saturdays if you can confirm that you're in the US let me know Baron love the drop on Friday Patrick says take off the weekend so I am not live on Sundays and Mondays I take those days to work on on courses on material for another things of bed I am life usually Tuesday to Saturday though and Young's asking about patient at auto ok we can have a look at that in a second and Baroness a basically the higher inflation numbers that we might well get will cost more of a tech correction so we had now for the first time this year you actually reading quite good job numbers better than expected and better than expected job numbers lead to what well we can we can make a little a little flowchart here if you like essentially if you have more jobs and there's more jobs data coming out on Monday and Tuesday by the way that essentially increases two things that increases wages because there is more of a squeeze there and at the same time well it does a second thing really which is it removes the fat argument basically reason 4444 money printing so this is my money printing that so that's what I've been saying again and again and again and in the last week we had two or three organs saying well we shouldn't be waiting we should get to tapering and if the employment data is better than expected we should jump on it so that seems much more likely now they're meeting again and August so that seems much more likely and this Hill course also creates more information which is the other problem is that we might see if we see real wage inflation we going to get some data at them on Monday or Tuesday on that then that would again speed into this remove this feds argument off in a we can wait we can wait no one will believe that anymore so I think we might see Bond yields increased a little bit more and we might see a bit more pressure on the growth stocks that have performed them best so there is a little bit of that going on there is it the end of the world though is mean does it mean it's the end of the market and all that sort of thing no I don't think so I think good of a temporary situation I'm going you are absolutely right or what you just said there on on tapering I totally agree with that and Eric to me that is also largely the course of the dip on Friday it wasn't just need it wasn't just palantirit was absolutely everything and let me show you that on HRT if you haven't gone to my website go to cademy and taking this free 5 part mini stock course to improve your investment returns what are you waiting for job on their right now it's goes academy.org and let me pull up a chat here to show you what I'm talking about in the meantime out copy and paste you that link in here clicking a link easier than typing it and if we if we throw in qqq in here ear it and just sort of zooming a little bit hang on can we wait what I'm fighting with the with the stock about what you can see if you could see to the second ago is that the orange line here that's the qqq right and that went down yesterday so did pretty much every grow stock out there so it's just the market to me that makes the move less important because it's a market sentiment issue it is in stock related isn't specific tunio it is lovely just the market feeling a little bit a little bit worried you might want to talk about the SCC Staples on Chinese stocks ok we can definitely do that so what I will do is I will make a list over here about things to talk about so I don't forget to SCC absolutely on China we'll definitely do that Paltalk Swan game for the talent turning CPI comes out 2 days before but never Powell talks a generally isn't the greatest thing for the market I think we've become used to that a phone now and Peter is asking will you buy more palantir 20s or waiting until earnings for me I'm gonna wait until earnings because I want to see that there is some actual momentum and as if I buy something and my money just sits there for for 6-months I'm losing money I'm losing the opportunity cost of buying something that is actually going to move so that's why I'm going to wait a little bit there and we can have a pump Monday we might well have that Monday reaction to Friday and then see you turned around with a little bit of economic data as well so again let me show you the data that's going to come out on at the beginning of the week so on Monday we have more job openings numbers and then on Tuesday we have labour costs and that is also important in terms of inflation so the more labour cost goes up the worst that is for inflation and the faster with an AC tapering right so that's definitely something to keep an eye out put option lips you know what I never trade lips I I must say because I find it very difficult to predict things that far in advance with high probability what what what do the what's the probability on on those traits that's really what I would look at it I generally only trade options that sort of 70% plus probability so I'll show you in a second what would not have been idea for nio for example let's run through the news on the screen and you're very welcome to Blake YouTube Welcome to you there I know you're asking some questions on the discord earlier thank you for that as well if you're free to ask questions as I will keep an eye on it and I'll keep adding them to make sure we cover them so the Chinese change the order show which is the big one because most car manufacturers are or company manufactures are based at the Enchanted was cancelled with the announcement that prove it is really quite severe in-situ and problems which is the problems around Chengdu so is that is sort of not great news so not covered side of the world Tesla is using b byd batteries in their model y and that was news to me I was very surprised by that hasn't let me show you the actual article here we go so I will be powered by by these blade battery and they'll do that from the second quarter of next year and the apparently testing at present apparently it will not catch fire and it was his first using the handy Model B is a pretty successfully selling model so Tesla diversifying their supply chain there or they can't get their hands on enough or is it just a better cheaper battery candle interesting that there but I'm from by DJ didn't really have them on the market as somebody you might sell batteries to other brands at all they would need to use them over themselves but apparently not certain interesting play there on by by your stock that's definitely very much overlooked I think I just answered your question that you wrote it you thought it I sorted there we have it so that's good it now TV I basically that's the way you look at this is lots of news out of the Chinese pressure hey translate on some of these articles this rumour that DVD would transfer the data into a third party company which might be government-owned and that was denied and we still don't really quite know what's gonna happen the headlines I see still are full of it but they have denied it a bit I'm still little bit cautious with her because we have lots of rumours around Alibaba and and for example and generally speaking a lot of his came true actually pretty much all of those came true it's just initially no comment and then so lovely week and I got that so if that is what's happening there then they have less market share more competition and I think one of them one says there's something up quite nicely and see if I can find it now obviously now I can't find it that's what happens when you want to show that I tell you over it set basically said that as part of this rectification process they have to lower costs pay drivers more and obviously bidetta compliant and for a business is already not profitable this is really a great thing and if they will not be able to use the data because that to me that's the only place that you actually make money because at the moment 90% market share not making money if that's a concern so I I don't love that I think this is really quite bad news 444d the stock so I'll be very cautious on that I also think I wanted to just put it on here and talk about ride sometimes and also work was I think both of them are stocks I would not touch I don't have them if I did I definitely sell them matter what the price arrive lied about pre-order coc Department of Justice investigation and the problem with all of that it could all the overcome with money you might think you just say they find another investor and they got cash again great but you have to ask yourself who are the brightest engineers and where are they going to go and work are they going to go and work and Ride or are they going to go work a tester or maybe even forward or gym companies without the stigma without this problem without possibly going out of business without government investigations the smartest in practice people leave first and you can't hire anymore that's the real no problem with the situation like ride in a thing for that reason personally I think they're going to go to bankruptcy and I think workhorse will go the same direction I think arrival is basically one that space I don't think were course is going to necessarily recover and I think again they all rely on having a really great engineers essentially and how do you attract those if you are you know you didn't get any of the contract that we thought you were going to get so I'll be very very cautious on those and bear in mind what happened to the.com stocks right 50% of them went out of business that look beautiful and shiny at the moment so when there is something in the TV space that is looking a little bit fishy I would go and go to a sofa Haven to look for my my Returns definitely also do that we just write it down over here we will get it and just a moment Michael good morning to you as well now let's look a little bit of nioprene earning so I'm actually going to put out the full video on that so if you if you want to read into that watch Apple ID then you coming out later but I just posted a couple of things in the discourse community earlier here it is I think it's quite insightful this is the key thing I'm going to look out for and that is the purple line is nio's gross profit on so we saw that improve from the last quarter in the previous quarter from 11% to 15.7% last quarter an hour so largely because the 100 kW hour battery was more widely available and that's more profitable for now and we've been told that they delivering those that my air-con hear it's absolutely roasting that they have them now in in order delivering them to all battery substations which basically means my god lots of them so that means a lot of the eevees there were delivered last month or last quarter will have that Hannah kilowatt hour battery so how far can we go can we go to lake you know 18% margins or something like that gross that will be with you tremendous and similarly with the ebit margin they still sitting at about - 14.6% here but they were you know - 25 2030 or something
recorded before so again that's I think the improvement that we're going to look for we have a pretty good idea of what Revenue will be aves to me other numbers that actually matter here so if you want to see what what earnings estimates are it's this it's basically - 9 + 9 cents and we expect in 1.285 billion revenue the best way to watch this guy's is join me on that life called it already on my channel you can just hit that set reminder button and they are truly insightful discerning scores of you haven't joined me on one before because you get to hear the bank analyst ask those inside questions and you and kind of read between the lines what they are worried about and what they are not Patrick's got an interesting question here on on currency do you best in different markets and currencies to diversify and not be invested as single currency I think ok the risk the most risk free thing to do is to invest only in your home currency the currency that you earn and spend your money and that would be the most risk creasing to do do if you put some reason and one currency in living and other than you another then you can have you should probably still if you want to pick one pick the one you're spending and that sort of is it matters more personally I don't think currencies matter all that much if you are say invested in some pound some euros and US dollars if you are buying really truly good companies out come over a 10-year period isn't really going to be turned into massively bye-bye currency movements it'll be by earnings I don't think it matters that much personally I wouldn't split it actively to get exposure to loads of character currency zdrada try to do the opposite and that's my photo that industry hello there's a cat out of the box and dresses by X-Men from the Netherlands alright so why don't we go to a couple of these questions I have on the chat here and I forgot to mention in it's entirety that I haven't you posted out and it's called your incoming 14-days and I'm really excited by this I've worked on this for weeks and weeks and it is not an investment course it is a course to teach you how to build that site business get that passive income and do it without working on it all the time to really automated and set it up in that is at the moment still of the presale because it's about to be launched in two weeks so take advantage of the 40% off coupon double income I've lost it last night on the live call and already guys are joining it which is super exciting so the community for that is also growing and have a look on that link it's also on my website I'll just show it to you briefly here so if you ready website you can click on on on learn more down here and you'll see that offer for the first 100 of you sign up will get that presale offer after that obviously the discount is not going to stay at 40% that would not be sustainable but if you just click on that and you basically get to see all the details listen to my little video on here I really explain it what it's all about but essentially it is to give you that extra income whether you want to our house or go on that trip or you want to Plough into the market in allow yourself to compound that into millions of Dollars over time as that's basically what I teach you in this you don't have to have a business idea you don't have to have a nap for running businesses a break it down step-by-step so you can do it and you can do this in two weeks and that's that's the Promise so check it out on the website language Academy as well just asked me about the possible merger with the Guggenheim in. And also the expanse status status so the Guggenheim post that we haven't really got any more rumours on that is just the rumour at present it hasn't progressed in this sort of public eye I think if it does happen it's going to be a very interesting one I like polestar a great deal but we don't know anymore yet so would I buy this back on that not necessarily because I don't know if that's ok actually going to happen so thank you very much more likes to get to 100 likes which is bird makes this officially a respectable causes hopefully sleeps smashing that like button and then expand status Jasper anything specific you are referring to the something you want to look at one thing I wanted to show you for nioprene running so if you are somebody who does options trading you understand what this is but if you don't want to give you a very brief glimpse so this is a straddle and it's a strange name I appreciate that but what it allows you to do is make profit on nio between $40 and $48 but I'm drawing in here in this whole range you are making money and that's pretty unusual you can't do that was stocks right so say this is our stock shot up here and you are making money whether this goes up or down as long as it stays between 40 and $48 approximately and what does it cost to it cost you nothing at all and thank you get cash upfront you get $393 upfront and why did I pick this because I know from history and history is right here that Leo day after earnings typically goes down to the three to 5% in the last couple of waters so in here and allowed myself about self about 10% Decline and this options expires on the 13th so just a day in a bit after literally one trading day after the earnings are released so you can do these quite exciting things with with them with options you could have caused all to the opposite and you could say so if save this is your stock price and you could say well I think it's going to either go up or down but it's not going to stay in the middle and I'm going to do a little box in the middle here and exclude that and stay in here I'm not making money but I'm making money above it in a making money below it happening with that with my head but if you see what I mean so you can put this little box in the middle and say if It Moves within very narrow range here and not making money but I'm leaving making money that goes up or down 3% or 5% so you can you can do some interesting staff with that don't forget you're well yes you are you are completely right your loss on this is in theory and limited so there will be some impact on your margin account so you will not be able to make this the biggest trade in the world but 1411 Trader this would be $393 you could do things to limit your losses which would possibly reduce your management costs are so there are things you can do to make it a bit more sophisticated but that becomes a little bit too complicated to explain this briefly to people who don't already trade options and if that sounds interesting to you again of course I have a course on options trading so check that out and that also comes with a 20% coupon build wealth so it can go to the link below Felix friends join and you can learn options trading from scratch as well now Richard thank you for joining us good morning to you and California and do you think Lucy is a goodbye A22 says angelite we can definitely look at that to let me add someone things you guys are shouting out here to our lovely list so we put lucid on the and let's dig into a couple of weeks so don't be shy if you want to ask questions ok let me explain the first one near the SECC China story with forgot to ask about is essentially about is at the moment if you are a Chinese company you cannot issue securities in the United States you can issue debt bonds convertible bonds shares at present and that is until you make further disclosures are you going to have to write a few more legalese paragraphs about something all that we don't know what the something are there is the SECC having to find it likely it'll have to do more with variable interest entities and with American depositary shares and just the way they I work in one risk I love yesterday and the listing prospectus and I think it mentions variable interest entity you like 98 times or something like that it's pretty out there is pretty disclosed already it's just people doing read it so be interesting to see what the SCC comes up with hear that might make people actually take notice I don't know people will but that's essentially that so it to me is that a terribly scary thing no because they're just saying we going to ask for an extra disclosure they could have gone further but they haven't they just saying give us more data give us more information so that's really all that is about Brandon wants a deep dive in a of El that's an interesting one I agree with you on that let's make a note that and I'll put put in little corner your DD it as I know it for myself have to do a property in in about 5-minutes on the hour we can have a go at that we can have a look at some of their numbers see what we can come up and asking price target for new end of the year ago we can definitely also look at that so nio price target so we've done the SCC let's look at so fine and what have you got so we've got sofa yesterday yesterday was yesterday going out for percent is having a nice rally Ali here despite the market in orange line has qqq despite the market going the other way and that of course is exactly what you want to see what what we have also done is we have gone you see this great big red arrow so they put in there sometime last week before this rally that was the peak of the previous market we didn't manage to break through it and now we have so that's good news so actually this now act as a support line so that sort of 1664 there abouts that is now support someone to make that make that green indicate support so that's kind of what's going to hold us up somewhat in in a positive sense and what's the next Real resistance on the way up well it's this thin orange line appear which is 100 a moving average which is my flag and therefore that as well is that sitting around 17777 red to indicate its resistance on the way up so that's for me really the real break it make it or break a test on the way up it's another dollar in a bit to go now we do a course of earnings coming up in just a couple of days 12th of August unfortunately there I think at like 4 when the morning or something my time say 5 p.m. New York time so I won't be able to do a live on that but you should listen to it if you are interested in so far because it's always the chat between management and just getting that feeling that sense for how they answered is Anna is questions is really really priceless like MasterCard MasterCard with a price list adverts and we have also here broken out of that channel which I drawn in so previously drawn in this sort of channel here between 15 and 1660 so it is a good move it really matters weather on Monday Wetherby thought back into this channel to be thought back below 1664 and that way we just continue treading water sideways or are we actually breaking out of this that's really the question with a little bit too early to tell at this point I meant volume a little bit less on Monday so that's not you and I want to go into Google bit higher if we look at the omentum that has turned positive so that this is a green line down here 20 Mark from the mentions we are moving into positivity but we're not like massively deposit ivity and it could be at it one could B6 B7 B10 as I could be a little bit higher so we're still a little bit on the edge here do you think will help you stop to grow or just buy and sell self it moves to stock no I think it's a smart way of Raising some money and it's someone risks it reduces the risk and they will hopefully be able to get connected to that southbound connect to that mainland Chinese retail investors can put money into more easily I think that will be the obvious advantage that Astra space rocket lab and SpaceX IPO so I've looked a little bit of this happened on a property that I've honest I don't really want to give an opinion without having done that actually Tom Nash to the video on Astra space I think yesterday but I haven't seen your either but you might want to check that out he's got a good to put a reasonable head on his shoulders that might be one to look at it I will also take a little bit deeper into that because you are not the first to ask about that so I will definitely look at that Astra rocket thanks for for doing my homework for me here I will have a little bit of a look at that so similar JD it's a brilliant company I think it is very undervalued at present I think huge growth free cash flow very profitable and and all that but I don't think it's going to go anywhere in the next 6-months just like the whole China tech space with the space with the exception of eevee's I think the whole other Titanic space is struggling is getting a billion dollar plus fine right so JD isn't really going to move Alibaba just stating that taxes are going to go up so you know do you think that isn't going to happen to JD all of those things happen to all of them because JD was doing the same shenanigans that bad I was doing that mate around is not getting fine for so just a question of time till they are the ones in the headline so I would say great company but not necessarily a an urgency to jump in on it I think there is time for this and also wants me to add the red wire to this might be interesting to do a to do a proper space video we're going to space Sophie yes we just talked about Sophie lucid I think if you look at this just step back a moment and you just think well in American Evie jewellery made in the US it's premium is good quality good backing good investors that's brilliant doesn't it the the people that put up once it works if it works if it doesn't go up in flames and doesn't run on a money now very much less likely to run out of money because they've got serious backers and presumably they will be able to do something decent callebaut manufacturing is a huge risk ramping up manufacturing is difficult supply chain is Hugh difficult a present and there isn't all that much of it in the United States be quite frank ride a lot of it is in is in China and Taiwan and Japan and places so you're really small it is actually not that easy to get your hands on that particularly if your new so so the question really is is this like Tesla 15 years ago which is why people are interested or is this just a more high risk Tesla I could grab the business so I think that's really the other of the fundamentally underlying question here is it worth me know what's the market cap now 37 billion or when they haven't sold the thing so they are they are definitely not cheap that's why I would say so I think it's not really about like one of the technical saying where are we exactly on the child that sort of thing it's more what's your fundamental belief in that management do you have 100-percent faith in that SEO do you think they can pull this off because it's a big thing to pull off to build a new car company and they are a little bit late to the party I think we have to also admit that Richard does not like this by Rolling I don't know the chat I don't know anything about but whenever I watch a video with my presentation I somehow cringe that's just my reaction to it for that reason I'm not buying it and I'm with you on that road Richard I don't know there is something in his background or something that made you come to that conclusion what other reasons than what you are your gut is telling me you for me I listen to this instinctive reactions and if that's also why I love listening to earnings calls because I get to hear the management and if the management doesn't sound the right way I I literally sell the stock and that might sound crazy to you but to me it sort of work but I feel comfortable with it or not and that's a promise production since 2019 and yeah that's an issue so no production there is so you know we have ride also we have a lot of other companies that are going to go out of business I mean if you look at this from a paper who's back them have gone through it and then all that it all looks very good good it's very good sleep presentation where is the production so I would rather put my money into Tesla say because at least they're manufacturing they're selling there going to be one of the market leaders for short industry says come on everybody smash the like button we are need 17 more likes to get 100 likes a triple digit here and let me go through your further questions you are very welcome guys to ask questions just hit the subscribe button and then you can go on the live chat here nio nio price for that I'm going to pull up a patreon because that's where it's at and and if you go in there and you click on DCF so you can pick on near as well and you see those CD vadisi etc Alibaba is near so this is my why regular case nio discounted cash flow model which takes me to $98 now it's a 10-year model that does not mean it's a price tag of 4 and 10 years it means that the price target for about 12 months so I think your question was was it at the end of the year I have no idea I think it lovely move in the right direction because I think you three and Q phone number so we very good but really I think where the excitement will be will be 20-22 because that is when we get if you 7 delivered possibly a new sedan going into production and things for really ramped up into a different level and then also Thomas Driving will be much for that I think the Winter Olympics will be a course to show off autonomous driving to the world and Chinese technologies I think that will push and and Harry along all this regulatory stuff that we are seeing much much faster that's my daddy about a year out of 12-months out if you want to get a little bit did take a little bit deeper into that you're very welcome to check that out on the patreon Patrick I would really appreciate that if you haven't seen that yet I forever for everyone as I donate one sent to the general American animal sanctuary in their based in California I think I want to say South Carolina and somewhere else they do a good job so far I've sent them $1,453 I keep doing that every single month and Industry talking about chip shortage you think it's going to be a good year 20-22 I think so too I think the chip shortage is going to be largely behind us I saw an article out earlier let me see if I still have that open no idea which basically shows that most of the chip manufacturers think the chip shortage the biggest part of it will be over by the end of this year so Neil also said that it would be over by July so you know the proof is in the August number pudding really Nicola says it's insane to buy double exposure to JD in flipkart please like a way to buy a cheap multiples buttstock doesn't really move yeah I think I think Chinese equities are not really gonna move much this year with the exception of eevee's I really think that they won't and that's because I don't like them and I think they are good businesses it's just it's just the regulatory stuff is just gonna hang on sentiment tremendously so we still leaving that he likes to go to 100 and can we do that can we do that in a couple of minutes I think we probably could if there was enough will behind it so we talk lucid we talking you a price target let me do a quick recap here for anyone has just joined us to this lovely chat up here in orange you have the China market share of all TVs sold in the world and it's 47% of all Eevee sold in the world are sold in China 38% of all video I've made in the first half of 2021 will cells in Europe and only 12% in the United States so you can see why from investing point of view and from a stop picking point of view they won this with China and Europe exposure at the ones that matter the US actually isn't that important at this point are you could also look at the other way around and say well us has growth opportunities and yes it does but it'll take some time Patrick just maybe Chinese solar is pretty immunis well I think the whole kind of China green sector is definitely bolstered but you very again get into Sullivan popular good right so little bit like education or something like that how much profit is the right prophet for Society I think that's would you have to look at with Chinese stocks is this something that might go against the benefits to society ultimately Blake says why does nios price fall through to 5% after earnings in the past it's a funny one really there is if I can find it it is so you can see can see on this charger is an exposure whether we have beaten expectations or no we did 43 of the last Four Quarters each time yet this share price went down it's just one of those things I I don't really know why it's it's all of this you don't buy The Rumour sell the news type thing it happens with Tesla as well for example not particularly logical but that's just you know I can just tell you what the numbers so it doesn't make a great deal of sense the sellers talk that's just outperformed to me but then if you are short-term Trader options trading might that's perhaps wear that what he did extenders typically volatility on earnings in a lot of that will also come from the options world because it is a really easy trade for people to do and make some money on fairly consistently if you do that four times a year you'll do it with the basket of stocks you can probably pull out some 70 80% Returns the on on on those straight so it's a good one to understand how that works what are you feeling on covert it's a boring subject I appreciate that the Chinese order showing as one of the biggest ones just got cancelled I just saw the announcement basically sighting that covered was very serious and the province so I know in America I don't know 2.2 million people just flew this weekend or something like that a bit is that just
going to get worse are we going to go back to lock down this autumn and we'll be there for see another recovery and things like Facebook and Amazon and so on and other stocks getting hammered because people are not going out after saying will China's push for carbon neutrality benefits Steel companies my knowledge of the steel sector in China is quite a few years old and I was working as an investment banker and then China couldn't make enough Steel to manufacture to build all the infrastructure so as far as I'm aware they were never really a big scale exporter of Steel I think of is all for domestic consumption so I don't know I would look at the Xbox that is import satistics that might be easier for you to the US how much fuel is to us import importing there so I think that was kind of the issue at the time so I don't know if that will be a big boom therefore for American company steals a pretty everything to move so I don't know how fat gets exported around the world if I have a question that I think is definitely one worth digging into Wayne ok there's that Bank of America article yeah I read that was an incredibly positive piece of news they were basically saying that they will not be a single battery left by 2025 so if there is a battery sorted that we've already had it for the last 6-months it's just been overshadowed by the chip shortage it does seem to be improving somewhat though you have it massive expenditure by and Investment by companies like catl for example the loudest battery manufacturer in the world and they seem to be very confident that they can meet damart at nio just got 100 kW battery out 6-months late in in on a mass scale true and that is the shortage it makes things late but it doesn't mean they don't have batteries to manufacturers I think it's a bit of a negative take on that I think it's a long period of time as well I think you can scale app Battery manufacturing relatively quickly suddenly more quickly than say chips thank you then I pretty-print really appreciate that Richard has any opinion science I don't know but just look at while we do it did on one I let me pull up Finn boxia show it to you as well see if they got any numbers out so earnings history they get a losing money a little bit we are expecting them to lose more money this quarter than last quarter and they're generally sort of alright stock price reaction after earnings massively volatile 10 12% of each time a is a great opportunity for some sun options trading here only a estimate and proving ever so slightly I don't know where they fell off but let's have a quick look at their we can do a comparison to see what else in that space trouble with these sort of science pharmaceutical companies is you can't tell very much from the numbers because they are typically not making anything yet right so at the moment they haven't even got an operating income margin there isn't one and everything is negative so difficult to judge from numbers therefore it really comes down to understanding their science and what they are making house now they are how likely they are to succeed and and well is it just is it is it a good idea is it one you can actually profit from is it when you can sell is there a market for it will regulators like it so that's really the challenge which is why I'm not massively into the pharmaceutical and healthcare companies please I just don't really understand that I'm not a scientist and not medically trained so I'll leave it to people who are if you have an investment manager you trust you is that way inclined I think that's probably the smarter way of doing it so I think if you want exposure to that I'd find the smartest guy around with a focused portfolio Gaston this pays the 1% of the management for year and at least that way there's somebody who knows what they're doing and obviously I was quoted on the stock as well as this one but yeah I think it's a really tricky one to invest in this it becomes complete gambling if you don't understand what's going on there I'm very glad you're joining us to it's fantastic I'm watching the new coverage she put on a video later which goes through Prix earnings so check that out I hope you will enjoy that thank you very much why did is asking about palantir everyone's always lamenting the share based compensation it's it doesn't look good I think that's just the reality of it we know it's here to stay it wasn't DS1 IPO filing it's it's a massive fan of of shares that they're gonna put out there again let me let me show you that here because it's on the patreon Palin to Dagenham to this a while back and we had a bit of a debate or they took it out 1.3 billion shares go to be if it's sensory issues too inside us over the next 8 years or so so they're all these options and incentive plans and yeah that's Wilko dilution and if they keep selling them each time for tax reasons it will also can it hold that the stock someone absolutely not put on here where you can look it up if the Equity incentive plan it is it outlined and all the fighting so it isn't it isn't a secret it's pretty pretty substantial I mean if you look at here it is this is the selling so far does it give us a summary no but you can see just how many trade that is right and absolute total cells so far 1.8 billion by insiders now you can argue well if retains them they owner that been working for not that much money for however many years and I totally get that and I can't really understand also why they're selling because they have to tax bill but you have to do something about it and it looks to an outside are you looking at calendar for the first time on my checklist one of the things I look for is inside us buying back shares that's what I like to see this one does not take that box and that way that therefore it would put up quite a lot of people say I do think it's an issue I I think it will continue to be and Gmail is asking me that structured isn't really very ideal he gets paid a salary of I think it's 2 million I can't quite remember million-dollar figure which isn't all that much for a you know Silicon Valley where abouts is SEO and then he gets like you know a billion dollars and options on that billion dollars he gets a tax bill with a pretty substantial maybe at any 400 million or something like that so he hasn't got the phone and she's got a and that's what happens each time those those options best so you can understand why you selling it but it doesn't look great for the stock and just isn't the way it's setup is it's cheap for the company to pay him a billion dollars without actually paying a billion dollars to just print some chairs and that's when possible that much and it's because the middle bit intact but not that much Ross Kennedy thank you very much you're very kind characters have a look at Visa stop please chat or numbers you have a preference that start with the chatia I like visa I must say I have I have offended of visa what's going on with this charter a little bit visa today so what did we see where we got the same sort of thing we got for most of this kind of grown up tech sector stock and this is what I call it we got good earnings 11% earnings surprise and then the market and why because all of the stocks like PayPal and Amazon everybody gave out Q3 forecast that were a bit more cautious they basically saying well you know you don't quite know what's going to happen and of course it depends on whether Bieber like shopping and spending and covered in all these things but look at this as if I put a an arrow in where we had the last earnings call the quarter before an arrow so that was the last earning score here and then you can see CD that the most recent one here so does this you see the pattern it's basically the same thing really up to earnings crash after earnings after earnings and I suspect it will go back in that direction because it's just a good company of wonderful my agents hugely profitable massive no I mean do you know anybody who doesn't have a Visa card in their pocket yeah you might occasionally usually a mix or your MasterCard or whatever but yeah I'm gonna use the visa card and most of the time so you know it's just accepted everywhere and loads of bills to run through the just make money in there continue to do do so largest financial institution in the world I don't think that's going to change anytime soon it's a brilliant business they have incredible consumer data on what we do where we go where we live what we spend they know more about August and we do ourselves so it is just a brilliant business banking I didn't give you a real sort of chart analysis a I just think this is this is my fundamental you on that I'm very happy to put up some indicators on this aarsi or something like that they will all be pointing down a bit and just recovering so if we put a this is 50 point line the green line is basically my my signal line so we're not purple line crosses from Below above it it's you might go there every single day and I prefer those stocks to say an airline with massive capital expenditure massive overheads fixed costs for maintaining that plane and these kind of things that doesn't have that you know does it cost him anything because you swipe a card know they make money every time you do it those are the kind of businesses that I look at a look at 4 offer I think you are I think you are on the on the picture on her father is a whole list of micropore 30 on there as well but you're very welcome to check out and you cannot close also find out in the master stocks course down below I give you my my whole call that a reliable portfolio that I buy every two weeks that's my new plan every month before hours every two weeks and I keep doing that in a respective of fair price in fact I'm also super excited if you don't know already how excited I am by the double your income in 14-days course it's just out it's the presale it's got about 2 weeks left to the official launch and during that time the first 100 people who sign up get that 40% off coupon and this is not an investment course this is a money earning course so helping you build that side business that will make passive money for you that is automated that runs itself that makes you wake up in the morning look at your inbox and go wonderful I've got orders from happy customers will appreciate what I do and you don't even need a business idea for it I'll give you the business idea if you if you don't have one so check that out it's on my website if you just click on on the the banner at the bottom learn more you will you will see everything that's in there and it takes you through literally every single step you don't need to be entrepreneurial minded you don't have to ever run a business you can have his full-time job and 3 dogs and 6 cats and 12 wives you will still have time to do this it is set up in a way into small pieces that you can do step-by-step you can do this in 2-weeks that's the plan that you can also spend over couple of weekends and you can launch it and you will make extra income and it is of course always comes with my 100% satisfaction guarantee which means no questions asked money back guarantee so I want you to be happy that's always my intention and I think this really will make you happy and just think about you could read that money I mean how exciting with that be if you can take it into a compound it portfolio and say you get $10,000 a month right and you invest at with let's saviour snp500 average for the last 10 years 14% and you do that over 20-years 30 million to you yes and it is but that's the truth that's the way compounding work so having extra income that you can invest so you will earn say 2.4 million over 20-years with a side business and that will give you a return of 13 million if you just plowed into the S&P 500 and I will also tell you you can play it into something better than the snp500 for example the snp500 quality secondary their 80s that just tractor good stocks not all the rubbish at the bottom end of that 500 so that's one way of using the money for or you can go on holiday and have an easy life old buy a house or buy a car or do you know do you want to do you use for your your your dogs are you know something like that history of visa during higher inflation I think the stocks that you well in inflation are those who are able to control prices and and don't have severe input costs that go up and you think about when you have your VISA card and you swipe it what does it cost visa they get a fee from the Merchant and an atom that isn't it where is the Costa for them so that their transaction costs are absolutely minimal and they don't have to start buying number or concrete or anything like that or increase their fleet or employ lots more people because it's just just an automated transaction so I don't think inflation is really a concern for them they also sitting on cans of money to setting a lot of obviously our money so I don't think it's really a big issue for them stocks for which it is an issue as I say those who have very high input costs I think those are those are other ones to look out for generally the ones with big wide margins adviza has let me show you the visa margin Jesus Jesus gross profit margin is 96.8% again it's 96.8% ok MasterCard 100-percent but it's that sort of insanity they return on common equity 30% we just tremendous return of capital 18% also tremendous and then the leverage cash flow margin is 56% of 12.6 billion of
3 cash to slashing around year after year and they're growing so I don't think it will be a problem for the moment eBay is only on eBay is an incredible business but I think visa is probably slightly better red Edwards great to have you on the chat fantastic to see you again what are your thoughts on GLG I Greystone logistics they're turning waste plastic into plastic pallets ok as in for logistics pallets yes interesting business I mean a pallet is a relatively inexpensive item it's a commodity everybody has to buy in that quantity so I I'd like the idea from ethical point of view but I don't really know the them I haven't had looked at that there and what's the how easy is it to replace I know a lot of people they moved away from wooden pallets cos I need to be fumigated in the Fall Apart plastic pallets are more durable problem of course is plastic is use recycled plastic hose and advantage so I can see from a source of CSR point of you why that might be quite a good business for them but I have looked into the numbers read out WhatsApp but thanks for throwing that out them I mean that's all I want to do I always want you to stab thinking about things did yourself deeper and realise whether or not this is for you and fit your portfolio and someone they all these things that's because it doesn't mean you should because your situation and your portfolio probably looks different to mine so just take it as a as a starting point to start checking out the data yourself and think whether this is something worth buying but I I I see what you mean from the child point of view this looks kind of interesting Michael my nio price target is about $98 that's 12 months out that's on the basis that we going to get a foreigners driving we're going to get the 87 be going to get another sit down the second factory will be up and running in all that sort of thing and I think the Eevee world look quite different in 12 months time that's not my price target on on that one hang on on Square I think Square is a good business it's just not a particularly cheap business that's a little bit the issue with that let me have a look at you do a comparison here with PayPal for example and square so PayPal is the orange one let me hide a few lines too many lines on this chart so the colourful one is square and PayPal is the one below so no Square is that this incredible thing where it's become it's got 1000% in to a bit years and that's my only concern with it it's it's just it's is at the top of its history and it's it's it's a little bit on the DS I think it's a great business the question is whether it's is it reasonable to outperformed say PayPal in a two-and-a-half times that's a little bit my concern with it if it took a real nosedive I think I'd be interested but it's so far it hasn't it just keeps going up so it's just one of those things that's very very popular so for that reason why I haven't personally watered but these this hole sectors Square stripe PayPal I think they are all very good businesses it's just a question of finding one at a good evaluation so actually while we pull that up see if we can do a valuation comparison here and do we have ok that's strange some really Batman things in let me see you let me see through PayPal if for example that's one I know a little bit better and here we have at the bottom Square can you see at home and PayPal so the two first two numbers I will always look at his return on common equity and return on invested capital and for both to return on common equity is a really good metric basically says if you give Square $100 how much money will they give you back in a year's time how much money will they create in a year's time and that and they create basically $25 same as PayPal now the return on common equity figure is fairly easily I mean manipulated is it is a negative word that sort of what I mean the return on invested capital is a little bit harder to massage so I thought I like to look at both and on that metric PayPal is almost 3 times better it could be reasons for that but at the moment that's what it looks like and then free cash flow margin it's another one I like to look at and their PayPal again is 5 times better than Square so imagine not not not normal amount so that's it with the issue I don't really look at things like pricebook price-earnings I think that's fairly meaningless let's see if we can see them but I think they are fairly meaning Square is price-earnings 220 x Facebook 67 x similar differentiate between pricebook between between those two sorry for me that's why I'm just keeping PayPal and I think Square very interesting business but I'm not sure it's worth the risk for me at least if you haven't been to my website yet go on there right now and take that 3 part 35 pad mini stocks course to help you improve your investment returns it's entirely free and no questions asked you get it instantly you have to wait for anything at it's like I highly recommend you do that if you haven't already quarry has 75-in professionally managed portfolios and Tuesdays based on a 1-year head-to-head comparison amongst three financial solutions the one that one outperformed the you didn't tell me the end the Left Me Hanging it ok if I only have a 10% it's been 7 months since I slept completely happy returns about 6-months I don't know what the performance portfolio the one thing I would always say with with professionally managed what radius look at fees and the 11th to fees there is some and this that really matters I've written quite a lot about that's if you go my website you'll find some things about that fees is the one thing that differentiates a good portfolio from the great portfolio and what fees do we have left the obvious stuff that kind of management fees that's fairly easy to spot the hidden stuff is trading fees and not everybody tells you what they are if a portfolio was very actively managed and a trade everyday in and out they have lots and lots of little brokerage commissions which really adds up over time so that's one thing I always look at is actually for people who trades as little as possible and then of course there are potentially other fees that you might want to look at some really I would give them all a call and ask them those questions and they should be very happy to answer them and explain to you exactly how they work but trading fees for heavily actively managed accounts cannot add up very substantially but I'm very very glad curry that you are you're getting a decent return the and I actually quite like managed portfolios I have another my money in a fund because I have someone that ok I'll pay them 1% I think that yeah but I a value that individual I think they're ready a good job and therefore I'm very happy to pay the 1% Felix is free breakdown of mutual funds and his master stocks course was very helpful a lot of things I was unaware thank you I appreciate you sharing up there are a lot more to it and then dissolve headline fees that people give you the industry is it can be a little misleading I think they said that they don't want you to really know what's hidden in those numbers snowflake I should mention the master stocks ghost Angelo you can still take 29% off coupon build wealth just go to the link below or go to my website go to cadham e.org and also do you want to we are coming 14 days I will show you I will guide you step-by-step how you can build that side hustle which can be very profitable and you don't need anything for this also there is this mistaken belief that you need lots of money to start a business you do not I can say that in phatic Lee to take advantage of that 40% off coupon that's because it's a presale and the course launches adding on the 23rd of August so that will of course disappear at that same point and it's also only available for the first time with students to say thank you for joining when will I realise this face because I've had one account for over 18 months we're just doing very well and no mention of he's so far will they tend to mention they just said have take them out somewhere so just call me just give him a call literally that's what I would do very few people call these fund managers for the typical very helpful when you do and just say can you give me a fee breakdown tell me your annual fees tell me your management fees what are you internal trading costs which obviously I expect you I pay for them or do they come out of your management fees and so on when you charge how often do you charge and and all that sort of stuff just have the conversation they should be very happy to share that with you and then you know and then you know exactly what you're paying for their butt and I'm very glad you are you are making mine and I really appreciate that Nicolas thank you very much I think that's a great I truly appreciate you I've got two more videos coming out today and then I'm back with the lives on Tuesday tomorrow and Monday after me at days working on course materials and course community n and creating more content for that side of things so if you want to see me in the meantime join the patreon that you can chat with me as well I truly appreciate you I really appreciate you getting the channel to Almost 24000 subscribers thank you very much good keep hitting that like and subscribe and I wish you a beautiful weekend forget about investment for once for a day or two don't worry about your portfolio so much to go out and enjoy yourselves and see you on the next Call hopefully on Tuesday