Seminar: Can technology improve delivery of school feeding programmes?

Seminar: Can technology improve delivery of school feeding programmes?

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Rahu. Everyone, welcome to Hawkings India welcome. To the one second, developments. I'm, shameeka. I'm. Very pleased to welcome professorship. They've not from the Indian School of Business, she sure is one. Of our own, leaving, micro economists, in, India he, has. Incredibly. Sound. Technical. Expertise. In looking at how, the level, data looking, at, you. Know disaggregated. Data, across. Different sectors, of. Interest. Today what he's going to present is while. It is within. The school system it's. Pertaining, to education. But. But it's really about how, do you use technology to, improve governance. How do you how to improve performance of, public, schools how do you improve performance, of bureaucrats, so. It broadly. A governance, question that is going to address it's, a joint work with Chappelle sikri, from University. Of Michigan the. Rule, of, of the game she said is you have an hour to present and, then we can do half an hour of Q&A with the audience I will have three questions right so come. Thank. You for. That generous, introduction I don't know about leading, but I do love to play with theta so. This. Is, joint. Work when she kept shaking she, was also my, advisor and, we. Started, working on this around. In 2015. And. Here. Is a, working. Paper version, so. Comments. You. Know questions. Are always, welcome so. I will also be taking down notes. In. The middle but. I. Guess. We have to get you any other end. So. You. Know one of our prime, minister once regretted that, every, rupee. That we spend on public, programs. Only. 30%. Of it reaches the poor but, that was long time back but. Leakages, them inefficiencies, are, our, big. Concerns, in government, projects, and. What. It does it essentially, apart. From the making, program, ineffective, it erodes, the trust of people in those government, programs and in general restart living government. Doesn't, work you, cannot provide public goods so. We. Always in, developing, countries particularly, we have programs, which are intended, or targeted, towards certain, beneficiaries, because we have limited funds and. Often. Time these better things do not really reach to the intended, beneficiaries. It's, a different argument altogether, who should be beneficiary, who should not be beneficial I have not getting into it but once you identify, a certain set of beneficence, the, funds do not really reach. Them he does reach them but there is a large chunk. It. Doesn't reach to them and often reaches for someone who are not supposed to benefit so there are these two. And. This. Is, observation. By world bank and in, 2003. The water and. Land. Spigen you will puts harsh, words even, harsher than this and he, says, that institution, capacity, to do this program is. Close. Is high enough or thin enough to call. It just failing so, these programs and have failed and. So. You. Notice the public interest, in the government program at the same time it also effects, the, intended.

Goal Of the program I mean if you really care you carefully, look into it so most, of the public. Programs. Have some benefits, or some Intendant, you, know welfare, you. Know question. That we want to answer for example maybe, you can think of it as if they are trying. To entice kids to come to school and improve learning, outcomes but at the same time it's, also trying to push certain, micronutrients. That are not. Available in, their daily food intake and, also trying, to meet them healthier, so that our health expenditure, later on when, they become adult is much less similarly. For example, when, government. Is subsidizing LPG. For some. Beneficiaries, of, course the intention is to make the process of cooking much. More enjoyable, but at the same time it is also trying to reduce indoor. Air pollution so you. Know the moment a particular program, of the program fails of course you do not tell you what that public good but at the same time you know you are also not achieving, certain other education, of old health, goals that, the program. Host is. And. Once. A particular, program, is rolled, out subtly, set up infrastructure, gets created, certain software's will create and subtle. Bureaucratic. Positions, get created, an institution gets created. Dismantling. It and creating something new is very very, expensive so the. Question that we are trying to answer is are. There scalable. Low-tech. Technologies. Which can help us due. To. Existing. Public. Service delivery we can some more efficient and. Probably. The question will be clearer if you're most whites but. This. Is a. Topic. Which is which. Has a larger, context. And that context, is very very recent, and it. Is called the personal, economics, of the states so. And. There's. Personal economics, of the state is also, a sub, area, of something, in economics, that we refer to as a circulation problem, to. Put it very very, loosely, principal-agent. Problem had, traditionally, been defined as, a problem, of a form and, the. Firm or, the owner, of the firm or, you can call the shareholders, and they have essentially. Hired, a person a manager, in, order to look, after that daily operations, of the firm and. The. Principal owns the resources, but the principal, doesn't get to see what the manager is doing in their daily lives. And. Then. They sign, a contract about what the salaries, are going to be and what.

Would Be the performance of the basis of which the manager, would, be evaluated. But. The problem, is the principle can never see. Exactly, what this manager is doing and at, the end of the day if the outcome, of the efforts of the managers, are bad the manager can go ahead and say oh it, was not my fault it's, I put in all possible efforts that I could but simply. There was not enough rainfall so my. Hood was very very small so, this. Is this particular problem, of information asymmetry. That we refer to in economics, is. Also. Common, across various, other fields not just for firms you, can also think of. The. State as. A principal, you can also think of the bureaucrats, as a, agent. And there could be multiple beer, and spirits have, their offices, 1,400. Observing could be another layer. Of agent, and there could be district, office yourself district, officer Headmaster's, so you can think of a tree, diagram where, there, is someone sitting on the top there is not a person under them then there is another person under them and, they. All try to achieve something, but, the problem is no. One gets to see what is the effort, level that is being exerted by the lower level will proceed or you know the procedure, below, that ultimately, the headmaster, and ultimately, what the beneficiaries, are get. And. This. Is called multiple. Agent, or. Principal. Agent and. We. Don't need to know much about the, I was digress, a little bit I just wanted to mention that this is how economic. Theorists would see this problem but, this problem exists, in public. Service, provision also and. The, way. The. United. Nations have tried to attempt to solve the problem is essentially, to design, the incentives, properly, so you have to design the salaries, of them execute. Is properly in order to make sure that they are putting their best, foot forward and the, principle is realizing, in scope but. There. Are other possible, solutions as well you can monitor, them better you can put cameras, in schools, that we the first paper pages of the flow-on and run the. Publish in here in 2012. One. Of the highly cited journals, in macroeconomics. And what. They didn't understand, they put cameras. In classrooms. And saw. What the teachers were doing, and. Took. Photographs of, them with the students every single thing with the date stamped, on the, photograph, so that's simple monitoring, technology, infu, teacher attendance, and later on improved, students. Learning. Outcomes, and so on so. That was one way you could use these monitoring, tools in, education, then the second paper which. Is by NA Mahara and valuable which were published in Journal of development, economics in very recently 2013. They. Look in cannot occur and they look at what happens, to hospitals, when, the, nurses and the doctors are, supposed to get. Their thumbs, scanned. To, want their presence and. Before. The this, particular introduction. Of this tool the rate. Of presence, or hospitals, and nurses, or doctors and nurses we're, below. 40 percent 10 50 percent respectively so. We to prove their attendance. Rate and subsequently, improved. Public. Health care by people like this because religious, area would not come to hospitals, because they would say what. Should why should I go there I mean the doctor is never present trend. Then. There. Has been bunch of other studies as well, karthick malignant, public, house and some leaves of Concord a recently published a paper in here again, and here. The idea was, that we. Can make public, programs much more. What. Should I say you, know we can use technologies, which are very very simple to make sure that payments, are going to a person who is the actual beneficiaries.

And They'll to show that they've acacie of the public goods delivery. Increases. So. That it's in a very very large-scale randomized. Control trial in in. The state of, Appalachian, so, similarly, Bendall can also used monitoring, versus audits as to see what how quality. Of their roads are. Determined, in Indonesia, and so on and but by and large most. Of the people what they do is they show you that monitoring. Helps and. So. There. Are some literature, in this area and. What. We are doing is attempting. To do something very similar but we. Are using a very large-scale roll-up, of a, particular, intervention, in the state of the heart and in, the context, of provision of meticles. So. I I. Won't spend much time but, just to make sure that everybody is on board it, is the material. Is. One. Of the largest, coal feeding program in the world currently, it feels about every, day freshly. Cooked. 290. Million kids but is a challenging. Exercise in itself and. The. Reason. Why this particular program, was instituted is, to essentially. Combat, malnutrition among, school children but. Started with providing, them with raw, greens and later transitioned, to go to meals and so. So. Kids. Initially kids in the primary schools where eligible later, it was. It. Was increased at the beneficiary, something, included. The primary kids is going to plate 6 7 & 8 was included, in the list as well. But. There. Is so many new speaker reports, that we keep hearing that this particular program is just fraught, with corruption, people, you. Know siphon off the resources, that are meant for the kids the food quality that is served is not good and. Typically. There. Are reports, of huge, over reporting on beneficiaries, because the more you over report the beneficiaries, the. Government a lot more, funds, and you. Are eligible, to receive more rates as well which decreases the scope of percent. So. And. You. Know I went ahead and talked, to the director of materials. In a couple of states and. What. Seemed to be a big problem is the flow of information if. You if I ask the medical director. In any particular, state and ask. Them, do. You know what fraction, of schools provided. Materials, today you, will not have a response, and you, will bring a pig. Out a a4. Sheet with. District. Level information, on what, percentage, of, in each of the districts, we're selling materials, at least three to four months back because, that's the frequency at which data. Reaches, them and this. Data gathering, process itself is very onerous, like how do you know how what fraction, of schools in, the eighth District is, providing, me tables quarterly, right so the, data collection process is.

And. Despite the processor. In. A bit but. The. Collection. Process involved. That. You. Start asking headmaster. Are. You cooking means that. Is done by a block local officer for. Those who don't know block is a subdivision. Of a district administrator and, then, the, block resource, person, collects, all this information. And then submits. At the district level so. This is occupied racism, Mis, system through, which this data is entered and, then someone, at the district level collects, this information. Creates. An average out of it submit to the state level then, the state level folks. They. Collected, send, it to the. Ministry the ministry then allocates, forms, and allocates, grains through FCA and then through. The same channel both money and the, grains float back to the. School. So. You can see that this collection procedure, manual, collects impossible, procedure of the data is very, very onerous. And. We. Are sidetracked, the system and. In. Order to you, know get, more detailed, data more real-time high, frequency, data they. Insert introduced an IVR, system, so, I Garrison's, interactive, voice response of, system is the same, annoying. Voice. That Greek system what, we call a active that and. You have to press this in order to know your balance, and so on so they use the same technology apparently, this is a very cheap technology and, that. We did, it is essentially. They. Collected, the creatures in database, of all school. Teachers, in become, well, roughly eighty thousand schools they created the database and then. One automated. Phone call goes to every, teacher, at. Least one teacher in every school and, every. Single, day right, around them, before. They're served meals, or rather after the service and they ask three, four question the first question is did you can, immediately today, and, they. Don't decide need to have a smart phone to answer these questions feature forms also to for answer this type of question they. Have to press either the button, zero or the bottom. To confirm no more yes and then. The response get registered, registered. In the system and, the next question would be how many kids had been tabled if the response was yes and then, again they punch numbers according, to how many kids. With. Getting. Meals in that particular, thing and then. They ask her some, but, the third question berries they might ask what is involvement, they, did not serve be dignity, us what, was the reason the meal was conserved, and so on so, this is a humongous, data, set that is getting creative, with, about. 80,000. Responses, every single day of. So. Apart. From collection. Of this data set, which was completely. Dependent on whatever the Headmaster's, felt they need to respond to there, was nothing else that was done so just, regular, collection, of information, from, a masters, who were responsible. To, serve these fields now. Why. Do, we think that, this act of collection, of data alone, can. Improve, provision, of meals and there are multiple reasons to think. So. Now. What you can do you can actually cross, tally their. Formation, that the middle theory Rock recei have been submitting. To, the state. Government, you, can see if some district, is saying that 100, percent of the schools in our district, is low value materials, you can check using the idea as data whether the masters, themselves are. Saying that or not that's, about one point another, thing is that once, the headmaster, responds, through. IBRS, it. Is essentially, one sort of a government, document that enters a system that I have saved this much and if there is an inspection team that arrives on that day they, have a reference point to see what, the headmaster.

Right. So it must have not can be held responsible that. They have responded. Differently to die pls and the inspection, on something. Yes, our every, school is supposed to be inspected, once a year. So. That, depends. It is quarter. And. Above, all this very safe community monitoring. Involved, - so. All these responses. By the Headmaster's. Are open. In the body so there is a website called overhead, order, and, there are drop-down -, through which you can find your school and see what your headmaster has responded only, particular they do, the minimal Authority whether they supplied is also, not right so, these are the reasons that we believe that this might affect the provision, of materials, and. As. You can see it's just collection. Of regular. Data from, those who are supposed to provide this and. So. What do we do well, our this. Is an empirical study of what is the impact of this particular program, on, provision, of materials, so, our idea is base so, Bihar started, this program in 2012, and, we. Collect data on BigTable provision. Both. From, government, and from, another, thank you, now. The NGO is prefer and. We. Have data from Bihar, from. 2009. 40 from. The government, we also have, data from the NGO from 2009, to 2014. So we, just see how. The. Average provision. Of meals is, changing, in Bihar, over. Time and. Not only in Bihar in order to have a control, set and others take a set, of states where this programme was not introduced, we, also crossed, it what, is happening in those states, around, that same time so that's right. So. Essentially. We re-examine. Changes. With in Bihar before, and after this, is also referred to as even study analysis, this is very common, in, in. Finance, when. There, is very high frequency, data and you know that something happened in one point in time and. But. This can, be conferred, by confounding. Factors, you know if you use only, data from Bihar, because. In Bihar. There. Could be something else happening. Let's. Say state why this something. That changed, in the material. Provision, all over India around, 2012. And Subhan we captured that if we look at just because so, just to have another. Set. Of controls, we include, bunch of, neighboring. States of Bihar as control, state and we see what is happening in those things around that time and compare that their, averages, with Bihar. Savage, so. Essentially. This is referred to as differencing, in different approach.

So Where the first difference is will. Be hard before and after the policy change and the second difference is coming from the. Difference in other states, before and after and then we take the difference, which, is different. Some difference and. Then. We do a lot, of empirical, checks, of robustness, to make sure that whatever we are estimating, are, validated. For difference, or, concerns. So. We, or you estimate, it generalized, theoretic, model which I explained in effect and then we also control, for, district. Specific, secular, trends, which might indicate that things very improving, even earlier, but, somehow we are capturing this in our data. Analysis. So. The, roadmap for the talk is I will talk baby, very briefly because, almost, everybody here and guessing knows what meeting Elsa and I. Will talk about that your assistant will talk about data destination. Strategy. Results. And there was a stress to be embedded on those results and deaths will, come true. So. What. Everything, does essentially. Started, with the National Programme for nutritional, support to primary education in. India which in 1995. And initially, they were students. Were given raw. And cooked food, just, to incentivize, them to come to class. Because. There was a concern that kids, don't come to class because they have to work outside because. Families cannot afford to, put food on the table so. That was also to prevent child labour at that time when they introduced the program, and then, of around after 10 years the program transitioned. From raw, food. Trains, to cooked meal and then. There were some major. Changes, in 2006. So, the government added a lot of micronutrients. Then. The, calorific. Requirements. Went into a sort of, increase, their some states. Included, eggs, the. Coverage was expanded, and not only the primary school going kids but other primary, kids were also included, and, the. Way it works is essentially, central, government provides free grades for. Rice eating districts, it is States. It's going to be nice for wheat. In the States or. Jabari. They, will provide, you. Know the. Wheat and the, state government, the share the, costs all which is referred to as commercial, cost. Grass. To the school could be of to attack it could be a record contract adding record neutrons are essentially, graphs for conversion, costs and not, reckoning costs are essentially cost to set up the kitchen utensil, sensors and.

Of. Course the grass vary by school because, the grant size is determined by the number of enrolled, children and, the moment, you have something. Like that the. Grants are dependent, on a number of enrolled, children you, can expect, what. Is going to happen yeah, so, if. The, fun that is school, is getting depends. On how. Many children, don't load with, obviously. Incentivizes. Enrolling, more and more children to, the. It's. Also important to know how the fund serve flow. From the, government, to the schools so, first. Schools. Report. Their annual requirement. To, someone, called block resource, person, and these. Reports are essentially. One-page, very simple reports, which, include, number, of beneficiaries how. Many meals, that are served as the status, of the funds and the food you know food, grade that has been supplied to that school so. The block officials, then submit, these report of the district official, when they go back to the Block headquarters, in name software, and this. Goes directly to and. District. Officer, then ultimately goes, to the maintenance. Director so. These data are aggregated, first of the block level then at the district level then at the state level based, on these aggregated, reports, a. Annual. Work, plan budget, is made by the state and it is submitted to the. Project. Approval board, of the Ministry, of Human Resources, and then. The minister of Human Resources based on these awbb, the ports releases. The amount, of the, amount of money, if. They are approved and more in general they are approved and all these AWP, reports, are available online, and. If you are wondering what are the fingers or be hard it's all the districts always providing, 100 percent of the schools are providing details, that's, what it is. So. And. Then then once the funds are sanctioned. They flow back to the school following the same. Change. Of bureaucracy. So the. Way my immune system works, typically, a primary, school is supposed to have five, teachers, and some. Of them could be permit some of them could be temporary and, the. Government. Has actually created a database of all these teachers and library. System, also. One. Particular, teacher, from, a school, at random, every single day if the school is you. Know there's no her national holiday or state holiday, and. They. Ask some simple questions such, as did you cook a meal today Chris you know if you did not and. You. May ask the valid question to here ask is how many of our head muscles do have your phone and you'll be surprised, the, penetration. Rates of mobile telephony, in even, in rural ii there's almost more than hundred percent actually, so, for, our dataset that we analyzed, in 2012. And the program was started about. 99%. Of the Headmaster's have their mobile phones registered, so. Essentially. After completing. All these calls after the end of the day the software, summarizes, the entire data, at that district, level so if. You are the state material. Director, you can log in and you'll, see that, district. Level for each and every distinct, what fraction, of the schools were serving, meals on, that, particular, thing now, this level of disaggregated. Data is. It was not just there and not. Only it is provided, at the state level these are clickable, reports, as well so if you click on a particular district. Let's say Cuddy her and then. All the, sub districts, under the district opens, up and. Real time in the computer and then you can click on one particular, sub district then, all the way. Up and jets open up you click the map and tell the function is open up you click the picture the schools open up and you can then see what. Each school, has responded, or each, teacher, has responded, from each and every school every single, day and, now. Since, you have this data you can drill a lot, of applications. On top of these databases for example if. Some headmaster, has. Reported. That they have not provided meals for last, 7 days so their response was zero zero zero on hello for seven days you, can write, a simple program to, flag those who put a flag against those codes and then, someone, calls up those and masters and ask why, did you not supply materials, and, then try to solve that problem if.

There Were any supply Jimmy shows this right, so. But. In, order to do that you have to know which school is not providing, meals and that's, what this technology. And this is also uploaded, on a publicly, accessible website. Which is called the power org, where, you can essentially, provide, the school code each good has a unique code called iceboat even, if you don't know the code of a particular school there is a drop-down menu to go through this trip then select the subdistrict and so on and see, what that is Marcel is devoted for, a given day so. To, summarize, this, is how the system used to work so the flow of beneficiary. Information, first. Initially. It would be. The. School headmaster. Who. Would be supplying, this information, so. The. School headmaster would, supply this information, through, the. Nurses. Person manually. This. Information, would import beneficiary, think of the status of the funds how much grain is there in the school and then. The VRP the block resource person would, essentially, take this, data every, month feed it to an Mis and, then the. Administration, of the district system of for education, every, year so this frequency, was monthly, through PRT and then, it went to the district officers, and. And. Then. The PRP block resource person would upload this data on Mis, manually. Which is a software and. This. Will go to the district nodal officer for, education, in charge and then. They. Are also supposed, to audit, schools and verify, so. This is this was the top of the block resource personnel and the, districting, child would essentially, import. All these PRPs. Aggregate. All this data from all that we are being and district they, will manually at the data in Mis, it goes to the meeting with electorate, and then with, them until after it releases the funds availability, and protein, availability, to the schools and it goes back to the schools following the same chain of commands right what, did I hear is do it, did that so, it kind. Of eliminated, the wizzle's bureaucrats. Through which information flowed, to. Millimeter. Throat but, they, were not obsolete, the data would still, come through the traditional mechanism. But you have an additional, source of data which is much more frequent and. Which. Is much. More. Disaggregated. And it. Would come directly to the director. Completely. Parallel, system of data collection. So. What do we do what are the sources of our data we have. Primarily. Two. Sources of data that we extensively, use for our analysis, the first one is animal, status of Education report as a dataset, and we. Have Bihar, of course because the program, was, introduced. In Bihar and we have four other states that, we felt are compatible to be heart adjust, this purge heart and would assign multiple - and, I. We did not include you P in this list, because you we had something similar to begin with but deep we're not very. Cooperative. To, hear the other data said that we wanted from the state level and. So. This is essentially a repeated, cross section at school and household level so for, every year they will go to certain number of schools in each district, and will, give, us certain variables. That are of interest to us and. For. Each of the villages that covered in we're, covered in a Cell one, government school to be covered and it. Is also they would collect information, such as weather was, was. Cooked on the day that that enumerator. From acer, went, to the school and, whether. There's what evidence of food being served, and what. About the school infrastructure. So. This. Sample includes, about five thousand schools for bihar and wrong, twenty thousand schools for all the five states taken together. And. This. Is the second data set that we use extensively. This is annual, work plan budget, these are the budgets that are produced, by the minimal, deduct rate and sent for approval to, the ministry, and this. Has it's, a huge huge report. But. The variables that are of interest to us and, shall be total number of schools that are serving with a meal children. Number of beneficiaries, awaiting, meals amount. Of rice. Which, is consumed, amount of license, arrest, that is lifted, from, FCA godowns and this, is district level eater so the number of observation, is much much less here so, we have thirty to thirty eight districts, from bihar and we, have about 190, districts. Stay, clear of the patients called only Bihar and, we have over one hundred fifty seven. Districts, for all the five states taking together well, around seven hundred and eighty-five district. Here of their wishes for all five. States together. Okay. So. This. Is a summary, report of. Of. What. We have so the first panel is from the annual work plan budget, data so this is the state government report data and I want, you to. Note. That averages. For the first two, variables, right or rather first four variables, the percentage, of schools a primary, school serving, materials, according to government report, is.

99. And. That, simply her and not. Only bahar in other states as well is 99%, of the schools are serving materials. But, that, is our data schools, that are providing, materials, for the entire period you. Will see that it's only 65% so. There's a huge discrepancy between, what they independently, collected, NGO finds and what the and. World work plan budget data tells, you and we. Are essentially. Investigating. These two sources of information on. The same outcome, variable, that is whether a school is providing meals on and. The. One question could be called completion, rates so if all calls, are made -, are, they always picked up by their headmaster and these, are those rates so you can see in a given month. Typically. The number of all's would range between. 22. Or others. 19. To 25, ish depending on Khalid a is another, stuff and, you can see there are some big drops in the month of June, and all that because these are summer months and so on, you. Can see that roughly 80% of. The calls are picked up by the Headmaster's, and they cannot, go to voice. Lessons and. This. Is the heat map of the call completion, rate so where our headmaster so, we know exact. Location, of each of the 80,000, schools in Dakar and we. Know their. Response, for, all the schools for a period. Right after the program was started so in, 2012. April Harvard, until, 2017. And 18 so, we could figure out for, each school what is the call completion, rate and. Essentially. We mapped it out by give. The number in the color is red then the call completion rate is very made, or the color is blue then I call completion rate is very very high and, you can see that it is scattered all over the place. But around. The conga. Gang. Pieces in being idle as you can see it but. In. The right in the middle of the heart the, cross, crosses, and those. Are the places where, Headmaster's. Are reporting, to this, particular, forum ball much. More frequently.

Compared. To the peripheries, which are to, the west. Southwest and, Bihar and the. Upper parts of. The. Connectivity issues. Yeah. So whether the answer is called. Oh. Kisses. So. As. I said earlier the estimation, frameworks, involves, two, strategies, the first one is even study framework, where I look, at the. Average with. Tables served in Bihar, before. And after the program and, after. Controlling, for a bunch of district. Level observations. And. School. Develop divisions and then we also have a difference-in-difference, network where we compare Bihar, and the rest of the states when this policy was not instituted, and, now. We do it annually. So typically. Difference-in-difference. Analysis, is done as a comparison, between pre and post but, our result, was so stark, that we could we, could actually afford, to break it up by here to show you how, things change and this. Is how things, so. You can see the blue. Line there so, this, is coming, from a set data right so, blue line is essentially showing that, ninety percent of the schools in a Cell data, says. That they, served with day meals and that fraction doesn't really change over, time so these are all states except, to be hard. This. Is us a cell for four states on four states under control state survey and, look. At me hard before, IBRS. It was down below around, the close to fifty five ish percent, and this, is substantial jump, in 2012. And then. The it declines, a little bit but the jump persist so that's essentially, what. We are estimating in our data set so even, difference in the difference, ultimately. In economics, later said if you cannot have a picture. That says out loud you. No matter how much estimate, the to present this picture. Should be convincing, enough and if I do this, in economics. So. These are. Sharpened. And B. That's. Why we excluded, Kerala and Tamil Nadu and other states. And. That, is obvious. That, I do so, this is just sheer data what could be the reasons we have to decline we are not sure about so. But. Here. We will also see that decline in the numbers as well if you look at so this is just data from Bihar, and this. Is he said Ella said we are analyzing. Two variables that a cell reports first whether, this is the school that the a cell anywhere in terror went, the. School provides meals and we, table was quote on that day of inspection, these two variables and we are looking after. Control is the second, and the fourth column have. The same outcome variable, but it additionally, controls, for some others Oh specific, variables, that's why the number of observation, just drops in column. Two from column one and then again in column 4 2003. And you. Can clearly see that both, variables. Which measures. Whether. The school provides a meal or not in percentage, terms there. Is a statistically. Significant. Improvement and, at. The bottom what we do present is post, IVRS - VIP air so essentially we, are subtracting, the. Effect. From, it's. A 15-point. 10. Sorry. Subtracting, 3.47, from 15.10. If, we find 0 and this, is the statistic, that we are reporting here so essentially here it will be reporting. Subtracting. Five, point nine four from ten point five what is the effect before, and after, Paris, was implemented. Oh. Yeah. So that should be compared, relative to the top number so the baseline average. That means before the idea escaped, in according. To a sin theta about, 50s. Six percentage. Of schools claimed, that. They provide meals and the enumerator, found, that about. 50 percent were, actually serving, meals on, the day of when. They went to collect the data and the. Improvement. Was on the. Baseline, of of, 50. Percent -. That. Is a 24. Percent increase. In the, provision, of meetings yes. So. Here, there are a lot of school catchment Sigma that the school has a toilet or not to go starlett separate from boy stall if it is a boundary wall or not number of teachers with their disappearance, I. Don't. Remember the entire list but quite a bit, there. Are also districts. As fixed, effects as well in, order to counter for the fact that distance, could be different. Now. This is just from Bihar if, we do a, difference. In difference estimate, so now we are comparing the heart of the rest of the states and again typically, these, estimates, are done just by three post-analysis our result, was so star that we could break out by here to show exactly. When this big same right, at 2012.

You See a huge increase, in the provision, of materials. And. Now. Surprisingly. If, you look at the in wpv, data the, annual work plan budget, that is essentially. Submitted, by the state government. To the, ministry. The. Story completely, changes, right so, other states are still claiming that 100 percent represented. By the blue line that, they are essentially. Hundred. Percent of the schools are serving Windemere's, but suddenly for Bihar, which is the broken. Right there there, is a slight, drop, in the. Percentage of, schools that are claiming that they are serving, within the same so, these. Two data. Set are. Completely. In opposite. Direction in terms of effects and. This. Is also present, if we do we, estimate this econometrics, early as well so again. Close. To from one point six percentage, points or, rather if, you look at pre versus post right, here is in the upper primary and primary schools that decline was about 1.5, percentage, points to five. Point three percent rate ones so the government, reports, are, saying, that, lesser, and lesser schools, are providing building, this after IVRS but. If you look at the NGO data it, is telling us that more, and more schools are providing. Tables. And. It. Is there in the difference and difference analysis, as well if I compare with the rest of the states I see the exact same story. So. This. Is you. Know these two results alone, potentially. Point out the fact that, earlier. When before I here as schools were crawling with, our state's, and submitting. Inflated. Data to. The. Committee. In order to get more resources. Then. We do a bunch, of robustness. We. Have only few minutes, 15. Minutes or so I do happiness. I wouldn't get into the details, but I will. Just roughly tell you what we did this. Is the benchmark result, which I just showed you this is just I have not breaking them up I here I'm just showing pre post what is the difference then. We, added district. Specific, trends so we are assumed that each and every, district, in the dataset, we're following their, own.

And Even after controlling for that, the, effect size is exactly the same then. We did something which is referred to as generalized Eid so essentially we put predict, schools, or districts, which, are similar in terms of their composition, in Bihar and outside Bihar and. These. Are essentially predicted, probabilities, from be in Bihar and being outside other, four districts is better than MPL Orissa and what, we did we, chopped, off the ends of little distributions, to make the districts look very very similar and, you. Can also see that in the apparatus, where, for, the state's control, sticks and Bihar the differences, are statistically, it's, you, know. Insignificant. So. This means that these districts, are selectively, similar, in Bihar versus the control states if, you do the analysis, for those selected, sample we, still get the exact, same estimate, almost we. Do a propensity, score matching that's, another way to do the same thing and even. With this where we are essentially weighting. Re-weighting, the, observations. To make sure that the control, and the treated, or Bihar districts. Are very very similar, even. There we see, basic. No matter what. Metric. That we use how rigorous model, we use our, robustness, data, shows. Or tells us that indeed the effects were high. Then. We also look at what happens, to rice, consumption, and the amount of rice that was actually lifted from their cellphones and what we find here is that. They. Should have been stars some of the stars are missing. If. You look at column, number one and column number. So. Call of si 3 this. Is how, much rice that, was being consumed, of in primary, school and. That, increase, by. 2160, 2 victims, before, an after IBRS, and the, amount of rice that was lifted, in, those schools that remains, exactly, the same, so. That means consumption. Has increased, but. This, is coming, out of, new. Food. Grains or you, know foods, that is coming to, the system which was not there earlier and the data matches, almost exactly. Uncanny, however. This data matters, similarly, the, same effects, we see for, upper, primary schools, as well and if, we do difference. And difference will also see. So. We see that more. And more rice, is being consumed, in, the, hard primary. And upper practice bowls and, this. Consumption. Is coming, not due, to the existing, stock is being utilized properly but. Almost. Same amount of additional rice, is being lifted from, have share codons so this tells us that. Probably. Nobody was siphoning, rice. Because. Of course. If you provide more materials, you need more rice and the, amount of rice that you're additionally, using, is you, need to lift those much amount of rice as well however. There. Is another thing that we did we looked at enrollment, so this data is coming from us Elizabeth enrollment. And attendance, so. There, were some pre trends, in the data so, estimated, trend rate model and if. You look at the very last row, which says Bihar interacted, with post. 2012. That is gamma 3 in this paper you can see 4 so the columns different column represents, different grades plus 1 plus 2 of the classifier for. Each and every, class or great, suddenly. The enrollment, numbers have decreased in Bihar right under 2012. But. If, you look at attendance then it's a complicated. So, attendance. Has improved. So. It, tells us that you know that enrollment, fingers, are probably getting corrected, which was inflated, earlier and since. Meals, are provided, more frequently, the, number of schools, attending, schools has improved. So this is the story that we can get out of this, at. The same time. So. Since. We, know that we. Have. This watery progressive, force from government. Of the heart and, we. Also have, the. Enrollment. Data that the Headmaster's, report to the IBM system, and we, could actually create, a distribution to see whether these two distributions match or not so, exactly what we are trying to say here we have the same data from, two different sources one.

The Data is on enrollment. How, many kids are enrolled in each and every school in Bihar the, two sources our first, source is coming from the, government data that is quarterly progress report how, many kids are enrolled and the second, one, is coming from IPRs, and if we plot, the distribution they. Correspond. To each other. But. If. You plot, the distribution of, beneficiary is from the same data set we, see a completely. Different picture right. So, what we see here so the QPR report, on the number of beneficiaries is, we to the right of the. Number of beneficiaries reported. In, that awareness system so. Immediately. Tells, you and we tested whether these two distributions are statistically, significant, or not and they are very. Very busy. It's. Telling you that. The. QPR, reports are, much. More, inflated. Compared. To what. Is the headmaster reporting. To. Die here system so there is some, inflation, or there was some inflation in, the reporting. Of the, number of beneficiaries. We. Investigated. Whether there was quality. Quantity trade of so if a lot of schools are suddenly little around 24%, later schools are more. Like a motor selling materials, more does, the quality, of bills deteriorate. And there's, a lot of collection, that went on to creating this table we have to call this out of inspection, reports and we. Do not find anything actually so these, reports, tell you within how many schools they found, good. Quality meals bad quality, meals sufficient, quality bills and insufficient, quality bills so these are inspection, reports, that are sent to the ministry by. You. Know eminent. Scholars. Or retired, professors, in different colleges they are sent at random, to school to expect and they submit these reports in PDF. Copies. To the ministry, all these reports are available online so you downloaded, all the PDFs cleaned up the data and that analysis. For Bihar. And for the rest of the states but it says that the quality has improved and. Sufficiency. Of the means have improved as well so there was no quality want to be trade off and. Then. What we did is we, also, looked at if a headmaster is, completing, the cause does. It really mean that students, are more likely to attend those schools. Now this is something that we cannot. Draw. Inferences on causality, because it, is a master's, choice to pick up the phone :, and receive the calls from my peer system but nonetheless we, do find very positive, correlations, between the. Number of completed calls and average, daily attendance average.

Daily Meals average, attendance, of our enrollment, and so on so forth so essentially. If, what. Though it would read, this information is. If you look at column number one. So. If, it. Had mastered. Complete. One call the. Marginal effect, of that translates, into, one. Six, kids additional. Kids attending. That particular, school, so. The more likely, they are to pick, up these calls the tendons rates of that slowly increases, these, are very very significant. Results and then this. Is just a pure attendance, numbered, so there's no level here and if you look at attendance. Over it Goldman so percentage, of and. Low student worth anything that increases, by about point. Two one if they just accept, one phone caller coming from the IPO system so that's a marginal, effect of one, phone call away from, that is to, a particular, school headmaster and. You. Can look at the number of observations, here we have about. Two. Million observations, this. Is cool daily. Data which we are regressing, and we, have about, 80 thousand fixed effects because these are the number of schools and we, also have eighty thousand, time. Trends so we have assumed different time chance for different schools to these results are very very strong. So. That. Is. The summary of what we just saw earlier, I. Will, give this an interest of time another. Thing that we wanted to talk, though this is preliminary result, so that's why I kept it at the end we haven't flushed them out in detail but, another thing that we have noticed is and also administers, this at Metacritic, and reading test to the kids, but, we found surprisingly, that will be hard in public. Schools right after 2005. The. Scores. For these tests, that were administered, suddenly. Increases, both. For a definitely and for reading, test and that. Is given by the second, column all these coefficients, negative here and all. These coefficients here are also negative, some. Of them are significant, others are not but if you look at private. Schools they, are very, tiny and they're hardly. Negative, or statistically, significant, so this tells us that somehow. What. Has happened in Bihar after, 2012. Is that number of enrollment, has gone down number. Of attendance, has improved yet. Their. Test, scores have worsened, in public, school but somehow they did not worsen in. Private. Schools so. We, are yet to pin down what were the actual mechanisms, why did this happen, one hypothesis. Could be that since, Headmaster's, are getting, more involved in provision of meals maybe they are paying less attention towards. Educating, could. Be that since meals, are served, more. Regularly, the. Marginal, kid who is coming to school induced, by this, food. Is. Coming from a you, know weak associate, having background, so that, is lowering. The average. Test score further than third-class but, these are competing hypotheses, we have no way to, substantiate. This at this moment. So. We. Have ton of more data that we, are essentially, analyzing, this right now and, this. Data set is so large that our. Computer, is, collapsing. Every time we want to do any analysis, line but, nonetheless a lot to be done but, what, so far we, could show is from. NGO. Collected, data it shows that the performance, of materials. Have improved, substantially at, the same time the, common data set shows that. The. Lesser. And lesser schools, are providing here so these do not cannot. Go hand in hand unless, over-reporting into the system and. So. We also used a central government audit, data and it reveals that the quality, of the meals did not deter you either in the real sufficiency, we, also find enrollment. Decreases, but attendance, increases, and. Taken. Together, but we could say that it could reduce leakages, and we. Are able to do a cost-benefit, analysis, if we can, really, see how many so. From the state government data, we can figure out how many less kids are attending or beneficiaries, are being affected now because their numbers is decreasing we, can multiply that by the, per. Kid allotment, of funds we can figure out that, is us money, that is savings, to the state exchequer and the.

Cost To the system here, as we know it up front in 60 lakh rupees Organa, for the entire state so, we are doing that AHS benefit analysis University to figure out what, is the bang per buck for, this technology so, in, a nutshell, monitoring. Simple, monitoring, without any consequences. Potentially can, improve public service, delivery and this. Is one case where we saw that just, increasing, the frequency of, data collection, and I. Haven't. Much disaggregated. Level making it public can, just, doing that can improve delivery of public services. You.

2018-08-04 19:20

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