Elon Musk Talks on NASA, SpaceX, Future of Space Travel and Mars Colonization. Full ISS R&D Talk.
So, you. Were here a number, of years ago July in. 2015. It's not that long ago I guess two years ago and had, a discussion like this with Mike Suffredini and, a, lot of things have happened since, 2015. For. Spacek so can you can, you talk about how things have gone how how, they progressed, how. You feeling about how, the industry, and SpaceX. Particularly, progressed sure. What, I. Think, we are entering, a, new era of space exploration, which. Is extremely exciting. And. It's. It's. Not just SpaceX, but there's a number of other companies that have. Developed. New. Approaches. NASA. Is taking your purchase things which is really, exciting, in, the way that the the contracting, is done for space station resupply, I think is a great, model that, frankly, should be adopted throughout government I. Spoke. A little bit about this at the, governor's, conference, and. Was actually using the gnash, the NASA cargo. Resupply contracting. Process. As a, really. Great model for, government. In general. You. Know it's where you have two competitors. Fixed-price. Milestone. Based where the hot mile sensor, are primarily, Hardware. Oriented, and. Then if one of the two companies, that's, competing. Does. Not. Reach. Their milestones then the remainder of the milestones are competed. To. Another company and that's what happened with cargo resupply start. Off with SpaceX, and Kistler kisses, were made some progress but wasn't going to get cross the finishing line and then, a little sciences, was, competed. For the second slot and they did get a class the finishing line and I both SpaceX, and Orbital. While. Providing out that NASA with cargo services to the space station and, having. That competitive, dynamic is, I. Think it's a very powerful function. For. Getting a great outcome for the NASA, as the customer, and. I think that's just a great, that, was a great model really well executed. And to degree that's applicable in, other, areas of NASA the government I think that's. The potential for. Revolutionary. Progress on, that front. So. From, it from a technical standpoint. The. The. The biggest. Thing. That's happened in the last couple of years which. I'm. Really. Excited about and I think makes, a difference, for access to space is. The, landing. Of, the. Falcon. 9 rocket booster. And. In. The. And. If, you ever get a chance to go out to the, Cape. Oh. Found a burg to see that I'd really recommend it it's really. Pretty. Fun. And. It'll. Be a lot of those flights in, the remainder of the year I've got about a dozen flights still to go this year and, then.
After. Landing. Reef lying that same booster, with. Minimal work, to the booster. And. And. We, believe we can get to the point where in, the not-too-distant. Future in fact probably by by. Next year, where. The. That. The. Balcony. Groups that can be read loan. Within. 24 hours. So. And. And and the key the key to that is that. All. You do is inspections, and. No. Hardware has changed, not. Even the paint. This, is very important. So. That that's our aspiration for, for, next year, obviously. While paying, very close attention to, mission. Assurance and, reliability. But. We think we've got at least a technical, path to to achieving that and. Then, the. I. Think we're quite close to being able to recover the the. Fairing, so. To keep the huge, nose cone on the front, of Falcon, 9 which is a five. Point two meter diameter nose cone you. Can fit a basically. A whole sort, of city, bus in there and. And. That just that that fairing alone with all of its systems and the acoustic damping, and, qualification. All that in separation, system that's. About a five or six million dollar. Piece. Of equipment and. The. Analogy. I use with my team is like guys, imagine we had you. Know six. Million dollars in a pallet. Of cash and that. Was you. Know six million dollars is falling through this guy and. Would. We try to catch it I. Say. We do I say, we give it a shot you. Know worst. Case it ends up at the bottom of the ocean but, maybe we do catch it and then pay six million dollars let me know when ad pallet of cash is coming back yeah. I'd. Like to give it a shot you know it might as well be a pallet of cash because. It cost 6 million dollars so. And. But. I think we got, a decent shot of recovering, the faring by the end of the year, and. Possibly, reef light by either late this year or early next. And. That just leaves the, the. Upper stage of the rocket, upper. Stage is about 20%. Of the costs of the mission, so. If we get through stage and and fairing were right. Around 80 percent reasonable. And then. I. Think. Well, I think we for, a lot of missions so we can even bring the second stage back, so. We're gonna try to do that. Although. Our primary focus will be on. The. Dragon, over the next particular over the next year or so dragon, to spacecraft. Which. Is what we'll wait. Which is the crew crew dragon next generation dragon spacecraft which, has got all. Of the ecosystems. And the, but. It will later do a, launch. Aboard. All. The way to orbit and. And. Do an automated docking, maneuver, so it's not it does it doesn't need to be both with the aid of the arm it can do, a direct docking.
Maneuver, And. Then that will be the once. That's operational, the new method of taking both cargo and crew to the space station. So. If I say what's what's our primary focus it's making, sure we stay on track for. Getting. Getting crew to station, as. We promised NASA around. Middle of next year it's. Gonna be real exciting, I think it's gonna be great, for getting the public fired. Up you, know that's really been, a while since we launched. Astronauts. From US soil yeah we're, all looking forward to that yeah, and. I just like to thank. People. At NASA for, giving. Space extra chance to to. Do this and, just. Want a word, of appreciation for. The working relationship, with. NASA which is great. In. Fact I told the governors, last. Week that you know Tom my password, was I love NASA. But. That is actually true. You. Know, you've just given you've. Given all the hackers around the world yeah. Hopefully. I don't have like some little email account somewhere say okay you know like yeah I think I've had to change this we're gonna cut it on. Very. Good so how you, talk a little bit at Commercial Crew how's that going I know it's. You, know flying flying humans there's more systems involved of course the risk is higher yeah how is that progressing, um, you. Know it's. It's. Been way more difficult, than cargo for sure. Yeah. Misses. As, soon as sort of people into the picture it's. It's really a giant. Step up in. Making. Sure things go right you know and and for. Sure the the oversight. The. Oversight from NASA is much. Tougher. It was thought. That it wasn't tough with cargo but it's. Really. Intense for crew. So. I come. From the right motivations. But. Yeah. It's a you. Know can be a bit tough them on my, guys. Kind. Of SpaceX but but. But I you know I know where it's coming from it's the right right motivation. And. And. There'll be some debates you know going into next, year about some of the detailed technical. But. I think we. Really want to do. Everything humanly possible to make, sure it goes well and. You. Know triple check everything and. Overall. I think it's going you. Know really well. You. Know there's get, it's like these little small technical, bones of tension, which. No. We're. Working through those. Or. Engineers we're late for. That exactly. Yeah. It. And, some of these things were really like, esoteric, I mean unless somebody's. Really in, the weeds on, the. Rocket, and spacecraft design, it'll, just sound. Like you're, talking Greek but. Ancient. Greek you know but. Yeah. But there's you know I think it's good to have these debates and. Overall. I'm. Confident, that it's gonna be a system that. That. NASA feels good about and just, basically feels good about and, I look, forward, to continuing. The partnership into, next, year and. Doing. A great job for NASA excellent. Thank you and, of course we're looking forward to we're excited about it and as, you mentioned we're NASA is working hard with you yep oh yeah.
And. And, yeah and we were also all down in the weeds on those. Yep. Let's, see you lead down to the little ball to the whole thing oh yeah where's. Garrus garrus is here somewhere that's ghosts great, to first. If you can't have a if you can't have a dry lube bolt, pitch discussion, with yours you know it's not a good day just. Many, sort of in Louie's technical discussions, I actually, love I love talking terrorists, with my favorite people in the world actually. Mine. Too but but he's my boss hey. Let's. See so you talked, we talked a little bit about Commercial, Crew we, have cargo. Supply, resupply, one at which you have the dragon which of course dragon, one which is birthed. And in. Fact you've done a reef light recently with. Thanks. For bringing it up you know because. That's kind of important. And. Again. Thanks for the massive support on that god. We really, should. You. Know we, should have made a slightly, bigger deal out of it because it was the first reflow, and spacecraft, since the shuttle. And. We. Kind of forgot to make you know let, people know - I mean I guess it was there in the details but we forgot to you. Know with I don't think the public even realizes, that it's, the first reef light of a spacecraft. Of, an overall spacecraft, since the shuttle. Which. I've formed very well - very good a clean, mission yes solid, I, mean. That now that was a case where, it's in. Full disclosure say that. It. Costs us almost as much - if I probably about as much maybe. More. -. Reef we're not negotiating contract, you know I know I, know I just I just been totally, honest here. The. SpaceX internal, accounting, said that it costs us almost. As much as building. It dragon, one from scratch I suspect. Our internal accounting was probably being wasn't. Counting good and things. There. Were some circumstances, unusual about this one right this one, versions. And things like that so yeah the amount of rework on this beside, a lot of rework yeah but the next one we, think there's a decent shot of being. Maybe sort. Of 50% the cost of a new one. And. Keep. Going my contract. Negotiated. Gates myself yes and. But. Yeah. No I mean, we would have opted for the you know a best possible, deal. Deal for NASA and. It's. Always to have to get that top-line budget to increase hope it is. And, I think so, much good B could. Be accomplished if the NASA top-line budget was increased that, people have no idea. So. Talk a little best we talked about CRS one and and, birthing, in CRS - yeah are we talk about Commercial Crew CRS. - the, dragon is going to its cargo dragon cred it's, it's, a similar. Adam old line is it's, very dragon, yeah. But it's gonna dock and talk. About the then. We'll have good commonality, between synergism. And, things. So. The I mean the only thing cargo, dragon won't have is the launch escape system all. It'll still have the logic associated, with separating from the vehicle so. I think most likely even. Even cargo, dragon - would. Be able to supply survive booster. Anomaly but. Like I wouldn't normally. The. The, we. Don't like this yeah. I guess. I like. The. The. It. One of the Lord, it'll everything else on the dragon crew dragon - has except the the, thrusters, but I think in most cases actually, it would still be able to survive reentry, and. And. If the cargo safe. But. But. Having a commonality is great yeah, yeah. I mean going forward it seems like you, know docking, itself and if you know even, beyond testing of systems, evolutions, and things that might be beneficial, to test on on, the cargo version yeah absolutely. And, I know you've already done some things on on CRS one to prepare for CRS - and the testing. Some TPS. Repair. Capability, and things like that exactly. Actually. I. Really, you, know just like to. You. Know, express.
Some Appreciation for the whole CRS. Team. Because. They've really allowed us to update. The rocket and you. Know add. Quit crazy things like landing legs, and. I've. Been, really fair I think in long. As to iterate, with the booster for for. The CRS, contract, and. Then. And. And then as, you pointed out dragon. 2 being used for both cargo. And crew allows us to iterate. With. Them just a slight little more risk on the cargo version and. Prove, it out for this crew on board yeah. It's really helpful, excellent. Say let's, let's, talk about I know we got a few, more minutes here and then we'll open it up to questions but. You. Know the theme here is for. The conferences innovation, and and, of, course we talked already about some innovations, in the launch business, but what, do you think needs, to be where are the areas are the thrusts for innovation, that we really need both. You, know not not excluding, the launch but but also looking at low-earth orbit what are in low-earth orbit where do we where, do you think we as a as. A you. Know space industry need to go and look for our innovation. Yeah. Well. You know I I think, I. Feel. Even. I think, maybe people do the really, the key to opening up. Space. Space, was orbit. You. Know Elliot Leo and beyond is. Rapid. And complete, reusability. Or. Near, complete reusability. Like. We have add aircraft, or. Cars, or NOAA. Say for transport. That's. It's super hard with space because this is, you. Know develop on a planet with pretty, high gravity so. So. Be pretty easy to learn Mars or something like that. But. But Earth's gravity is really, pretty pretty high and we're gonna thick atmosphere, and. So. Reusability. Is tough and you're going through you. Know high sort, of you had operating vacuum. Hypersonic. Supersonic. Transonic. Subsonic. That's. Just a lot of regimes for, any. Sort, of flying object to go through. But breweries ability I think is absolutely fundamental to right. Through in. Access. To overt, and beyond. Leo. And Leo and beyond. Anything. That can be done and, in. That direction I think is good, mm-hmm, truly. Change the economics, of transportation. To low-earth orbit right really fundamental, you get quick reusability, the, economic, equation it becomes easier, to get to low-earth orbit, and do more things yeah. Yeah. I mean it's kind of like there, are just any mode of transport it's like. An ER before there was a Union Pacific going, across the u.s. to California, and, there's like hardly any people in California, people thought holding the Union Pacific was just crazy because you. Got like nobody, there so why are we pulling a railroad to nowhere. Now, you know California's, most populous state in the country. So. People stopped, in Texas along, the way yeah, yeah. The. Suburb I the way I left Texas you. Know we, do, a. Huge part of our R&D in Texas in Central Texas love people don't know about that. Near. Waco we don't. So, central Central Texas we do you. Don't boast a chica down and the south there that's right yeah yeah exactly so a lot of activity. Throughout. Texas, we're. Building yeah third launch site in, South. Texas near Brownsville. I think. That'll that'll give us good. You. Know contingency. Capability, if there's a hurricane, coming through the Cape and, we still need to get the station we could you, know launch out of South Texas and, that'll, ensure, continuity of service. And. Yeah. I really, spend a lot of time Texas yeah it's great. All. Right traffic's. Not as bad as in Southern California oh man Treach, so, that's the biggest issue with suncast more traffic health I mean, it's. Like it's, like which level of hell are you in, if. You're in hell. Yeah. Washington's, trying, to catch up. I. Mean. This is, I. Mean, they. Were digging a tunnel and. I feared about that yeah, yeah. So. It's, like and. The tunnel starts right across from SpaceX, HQ so if you ever out you want to see our. Tunnel. As. Long as you close. It in after it. Yeah. We're digging the tunnel and. It's. Kind of like a. Sort. Of it's. Like a look actually oddly enough it's like a little low stress. Activity. Because like everyone. Expects. It to fail and. I. Mean. The sort. Of, groan. Worthy joke that I make about, tunnels. Is that they have low expectations. Listen. Nowhere to go but down yes, I, keep. Going. You. Involved in space you involved in tunnels you kind of covered yeah they used. To call me interact guy when I was in started, open space and, this eccentric guy I was, Ling space he's probably gonna fail. It's. Another stuff saying Internet guy I, think that's because I transport, guy.
So Talk speaking of transports, you know so today ISS, is up there and really the conference is focused a lot on on some. Of the research and developments, going on there but. And, commercialization. Too by the way but what, and commercialization. At least NASA strategies, commercialization. Will, be fostered, on. ISS, and then it's a point in the future is, a go away and. And, we expect. We, hope for a vibrant, low Earth orbit economy at that point in time that's cool and I'm kind of curious what what you see in terms of SpaceX and your transportation. Relative. To that of that economy what's next for Commercial Crew after. After ISS, sure, well, I don't think the public realizes how, cool is s is. You. Know that is an awesome thing. That's up there. You. Know. Like. I, told a lot of people first. Of all some people don't realize we have a space station like you can't you can't be serious. Like, we. Have a gigantic, space station as huge. That's. Really gigantic. I. Mean. It's a pretty incredible structure. That we have orbiting. Over. The earth and. I. Think just I, I'd, recommend like man I better do something to educate the public about the awesomeness of the. Space station because this is pretty. Amazing, and, and. Big like, people just lose sight of like they think oh there's like a little thing it was big. That's, real big and. Yeah. So. And. Now it's finally getting into sort of real operational, youth and. I. Was. Great it's like an amazing technological, achievement. So. But. Then yeah, I. I. Think, the, the in, terms of low Earth orbit stuff. On. The commercial side I think there's a lot of opportunities, in, there. Kind of a global internet capability, so providing internet so posh the world that either don't have it or where. It's, very expensive and not very good. And. Like. That the space is really good for, providing. Internet, activity, for. Sparsely, populated or, low, populated, regions. So. So it's not really a threat to telcos actually going to take I. Think. Telcos, life is easier because a lot of customers that are very hard to serve where like. You're. Digging, a fiber, cable, for two miles they'll, never pay off the investment, to you, know to get to one house to everything but. But. For space you can really so so those customers. At. So. Eddie economically, sensible rates. There's. Observation. You're, getting better understanding, of. Crops. And climate, and natural. Is, sort of not. Any or any natural disaster. You. Know information. And. No. But I think the. If. You want to get the public. Real fired up I think we got a we gotta have a base on the moon you. Know. Like. Every. Pretty cool, and. Then going beyond that getting people to Mars yeah, certainly, sitting, further we've ever sent them before I think yeah captivating. For the people so yeah it's nice captivating for me I know that yeah exactly. So. Yeah. Just you, know having some inner presence. On. Another heavenly, body to. Be the kind of main base and then the, you, know getting getting people to to, Mars and beyond, and. You. Know sort of the context that that's the, continuance. Of the dream of Apollo that like. People. Are really looking for. Excellent. You know this might be a good time to to, go ahead and open it up for a few questions from the audience, weird, where. The. Where. There on the side I think microphones, on the side I. Can't. Tell if people are other. Lights are so bright it's hard to tell I know if this is a risk asking, people to ask questions, but any. Any. Questions looks like there's a few people signed up lined, up over here so the. Head. Hi. You Don over here from, the UK pleasure to ask. A question to you my. Question is how. Are you managing the risks associated, with the Falcon. Heavy and. Particularly the, recently. Announced, private. Launch. Around. The moon thank, you for your time sure. So. The. But, first of all I should say Falcon, heavy. That. Requires the simultaneous. Ignition. Of 27. / class engines. This. Is like you, know a lot that could go wrong there. And. I. Encourage, people to come down to, the Cape and, see the first developing heavy mission it's. Guaranteed to be exciting. But. It but it's one, of those things it's really difficult to test on the ground I, mean we can fire the engines in the ground but, and. We try to simulate the the, diamond at the dynamics, of having 27. Instead of 920 ins, and, the you. Know the airflow as it goes through transonic. It's. Like it's, gonna see heavy transonic, buffett. Then. It max Q warehouse behave on a max Q. There's. A lot of risk associated, with Falcon, have a real, good chance that that vehicle does not make it to a but. When. I make sure set. Expectations accordingly. I, hope. I hope, it makes it pass you know far, enough away from the pad that it does not course pad damage I would, consider even that of 1/3 honest. And. Yeah. Very. Excite, major pucker factor really, yeah that's like another. Way to describe it, yeah.
That Wendell that dwindles. The amount of people who want to ride on that the first time yeah, well. People just Waller can't there's still people say and disclosure. Here man full disclosure, I, you, know I think Falcon Heavy is gonna be a great vehicle just. Just like so much that's really. Impossible to test on the ground, and. We'll do our best and. It. Actually. Ended up being way way harder do Falcon Heavy than we thought because. At, first it sounds real easy you just stick to first, stages on it strap-on boosters yeah how hard, can that be but. Then everything changes all the loads change. Aerodynamics. Totally change. You've. Tripled the vibration. And acoustics. So. If. You sort of break the the qual levels on so. Much of the hardware. The. Amount of load you're putting through that center chorus is, crazy. Cuz. You got two super, powerful boosters, also. Shoving that Center core and, it's like so, we had to redesign the, whole center core airframe it's, not like the Falcon iink is good take so much look. Then. You got separation systems. And. Yeah. It just ended up being. Really. Way way more difficult than we originally thought we. Were pretty naive about that. But. I'd better the nice thing is it's it's a yeah. We're on before. He optimized it's about two and a half times the payload. Capability, of a falcon 9 so. You know it's. Well. Over a hundred thousand pounds to Tullio. Payload. Capability. Yeah fifty tons even, get up to a little higher than that if you, know it's optimized. And. And, the nice thing is that doesn't have the throat capability, to toss a dragon to in a loop around the moon. And. I've. Been dragon to itself the, heat shield is. Designed. With a huge amount of margin so. It's got enough margin to handle, a. Lunar. Re-entry. And. Particularly. If we do initial, velocity scrub do. Sort of at least one pass to scrub blasty then coming on the second pass. Yeah. But no. Question whoever's on the first flight in. Brave. Yes. Let's. See this go over here to this side here's a question from over here, hey. Ilan Ted, tegami with educational. Company called magnitude, IO I had. The good fortune of meeting you back, in September watching, your five sons launch their own Rockets Black Rock Desert oh yeah, yeah. And. Since then we've actually been a had, the great fortune of, sending students, payloads, up to the International, Space Station and, we're now working with cases, to extend, that we'd like 50 million students, to, get on the International Space Station their, experiments, on the space station by 2014. So. My question to you is more about the innovations, in education in, your thoughts that same year that I met you and your sons you. Announced, ad astra oh yeah, and. Before the advent, of neural lace gets fully implemented, haha, what, are your thoughts on the innovations, in education today, thank you just. Education. I. Think. There's, definitely some good schools out there but. I think the. Some. Of the mistakes at, least in my opinion that I see being made in education is, that. People. The. Teachers do not explain, why. Kids. Are being taught a subject. You. Know just sort of get dumped into math and like well why are you letting with what's, the point of this this seems like some yeah. Some people like maybe see I don't, know why I'm being asked to do these strange, problems. But. You know the why of things is extremely important. Because. You, know our brain has evolved to not. To. Discard, information, that, it thinks is has, a relevance so. Then if, on the one hand youth, you'll. Be asked to memorize or learn. Say. Formulas, but. You don't not know why this. Is the case then. You have this cognitive dissonance of it. Seems irrelevant but. I mean told to remember it so I'll be punished, so. So. I better remember it but so the why of things is very important and then. Being. Able to it and then, picking. Kind of a problem. And then. Using. Various. Educational, tools to solve that problem. Like. Using math or physics or, economics, to to solve that problem is far. More engaging, than. Teaching the tools. You. Know difference between, if. You say well, we're gonna take apart this this. Engine and. And. See, how it works and put it back together again and. Then in order to take the engine apart we need you, know wrenches and screwdrivers and, a winch, and. Allen. Keys and whatnot, and. And. I said that and then in the course of solving. The problem of taking the engine apart and putting it back together, you learn about, wrenches. And screwdrivers and all the tools that you need and. Then now you understand, the relevance this. Is why the. Wrenches are important I you, know where's if you had a class.
On Wrenches. Why. This not seem that great, you know so. Tying. It to solving. A problem is, I think very powerful, for. Establishing. Relevance, and getting. Kids. Excited about what they're working on, and. Then, and and. Having the knowledge stick yeah and to some extent a lot you know building, a, CubeSat. Or, flying an experiment, on ISS. Is, like that right you've got the yeah the Y or the relevance, the curiosity, in terms, of building that that, device that experiment. Really. Is cool it ties, to the it. Gives you a really a compound, example, of what what, you're learning in Y yeah, exactly I think like such things like cube SATs. Exactly. Where because, so like okay like. What is a solar panel, how does Roble dynamics, work how do we, you. Know how to repair this thing you, know how, to batteries work electronics. Control. Systems, and. You, you need to that, then you're like oh we want to make our satellite work that's why we need to understand all these disciplines, so. Think it's like like CubeSat, student huge stuffs are great. Like. Things like design build fly for model airplanes or Formula SAE we've. Got a design, build a. Kind. Of a, race. Car and and I you know raced out against other people that I think those things are very, powerful for learning. As learning tools yeah, it's very cool all right thank you see over, here another question. Hi. My name is Jacob. And actually live near the Cape so my question it's not much of a tech question but more of what your prediction is so, about maybe a hundred years after we develop. Sustainable. Colonies. On Mars do. You think and, of course many. Other countries will also try to get to Mars. That. There would be like a conflict. For the best resources. On Mars. Like. In I guess you could say in sort of like a, interplanetary. It's. Just like a video game doesn't, it. It's, an idea Mars. Attacks or. The. You. Know I think. It's a pretty open territory, on Mars. So. This I don't think we're gonna be there's, gonna be any kind of scarcity. There's. Like a lot of land on Mars. How. Many people. They're. Hiding on the backside yeah no I mean they're you're. Pretty clever if there are people on Mars man they are way, cleverer than us. They're. Hiding well. So. Yeah. No there's plenty of land on Mars so I mean you, know the history of human. Civilization does, contain a lot of war so I don't. Think we would you, know go, to Mars and that you, know be war free forever. But. But, there's certainly not gonna be a resource based a conflict. Due to scarcity of resources on, Mars I think we're gonna go to the Mars is a multinational, effort, - right so it's not it's, not one country go on in another country going in and they're fighting over Wars I think it's countries. Going together and, yeah, so I think we're we're more likely to be peaceful in that in. That scenario as, well yeah you know I actually, advocate. For I think it's fine if countries. Get together to, form teams but I think it's actually probably better if there are at least you.
Know At least two or three, country. Coalition's. Going going to Mars. In. A friendly way and. And. Competing, to see, who can make the most progress. And. If you look at like say the Olympics they'll be pretty boring if everyone, just linked arms and cross the fishing line at the same time. We've friendly. Better. Woods you. Know not be like the opening ceremony yeah yeah exactly so. Yeah I think friendly competition, is a good thing yeah. Very, good why I think you know NASA wants to be part of one of those carnal coalition's with the United States and yeah and so we're I know we're actually trying to build such a coalition now, let's. See from. Over here another question I am. Yota. Ariel founder, and CEO of Bluefield we are deploying methane, tracking micro satellites and, my question to you I hope to learn your thoughts on, advancing. Remote sensing, capabilities. Of critical, gases, on, earth and on. Mars thank, you. That's. A pretty esoteric question, um remote, sensing of craig asses. Yeah. I think. That. That's something that's gonna be important. Mars. Has a number of trace gases that are pretty helpful. It's. Very helpful that that Mars has, co2. And nitrogen, and. Argon those are those. Are like really helpful, gasses to have in the atmosphere. It's. Mostly co2 but that, little bit of nitrogen and argon really, can be pretty helpful yeah. And. Of again whatever other trace, gases we can get out of there I don't know we always say Mars. Has just enough atmosphere to it's, not to be really helpful in terms of, aerobraking. But it sure makes it a lot harder so it's just enough to be to. Be difficult, so, what but in terms of inserts you research utilization you, know get there to be able to build to. Get. Your oxygen and that's hopefully we'll have a super, build build. Hot get hydrogen main for hydrogen on the. Planet so yeah, and fluid enough resources it'll we don't have to carry everything with us well. The, nice thing having. If, you got h2 and co2, you can, build hydrocarbons, of any, kind you can sing both plastics. You. Can build you know short chain long-chain, hydrocarbons. You. Know the cars, basics thought for. Kind. Of a Mars transport, vehicle is a primary, methane based system. Because. You get to have a kind of a smaller. Living. The tanks are half the size with. Methane. So, and, then, yeah. But sand. And Mars with with a co2 atmosphere and, a lot of water rice is is, grateful, for that. Go. Beyond Mazda has a lot of Merit for a hydrogen, because then you only need water. But. That's, that's also a current thinking on that front so speaking. Of that last last, year in Guadalajara at the IAC conference you talked about plans. To go to the Mars and, and, and, I know you guys have been working on that since then yep you did, so, you plan at some point to talk about that work publicly. Yeah. Thinking probably the, upcoming, ISC, in Adelaide might. Be a good opportunity to, do. The updated, version of the Mosel, architecture, because, it's it's evolved quite a bit since, that. Last talk. Yeah. I might ask for questions. To. Be, elected. Of time for. That is. Good. Strategy, there, was some very enthusiastic, people to the mic at the IAC last time. But. But that. The. You. Know the the, key thing that better. Be figured out is like how do you pay for this whole you know something to go to Mars that's pretty super expensive, and. I. Kind. Of think by kind of you know if we downsized, the. The. Mars. Vehicle.
You. Know make it capable, of doing, Earth. Orbit activity, as well as. You. Know Mars activity. Then you know, maybe we could pay for it with by. Using it for over activity. That's. That's one, that's one of the key elements. In the new architecture. It's. So similar it's similar to what was at ISC but it's a it's, it's. A bit a little bit smaller still big but it's. But but I think it's I, think. This one's got a shot at. Being. Real. And a, bit, on it on the economic front you know that's the trick all. Right let's see I think the question probably here, hi, Jane, mark I, mostly. One important, question in one little aside oh, can. You talk a little bit about your, R&D, strategy for, your companies, and, is it all focused, on short term problem solution, or how much and in what fashion, do you allocate time, and money towards, R&D, spending on some of the long term goals you're working that and then, just as a little aside for, the boring company are you looking at not only as a habit, as, a transportation. But potentially, as a habitat. Company. For. Ton of not, just tunnels with habitats, on Mars mmhmm, yeah. Actually, so I do think like getting, good, at digging tunnels, could. Be really helpful for Mars. Because. Like once you've got a kind. Of a yeah, it would be a different optimization, or for you know Mars boring machine versus, a earth boring machine but. For. Sure there's gonna be need to be a lot of ice. Mining, on Mars and. Mining in general to. Get the raw materials and. Then, along the way, building. Underground. Habitats. Where, you. Know you're good good radiation. Shielding, and. You. Kind of have you. Know as much as you can you can build a really an entire, city underground if you wanted to I think people still gonna want to go to the surface you, know, from. Time to time but. You. You can build a trace amount underground. With. The. Right boring technology, on Mars so I do think that there's some. Overlap. In that technology. Development, arena. And. Then. Rd. You. Know I try to spend as much on R&D as we can at my. Companies. So. We really max out our. ID I mean I spend most of my time on engineering. That's. Probably 80% of my week. Is engineering. Meetings. And. So. It's you, know any money that we get. In revenue we, put. That right back into our, D and. Some, of it is longer-term. Yeah. You. Know like for example the, you know bars. Vehicle. We'll. Get some drinks some bars communication, stuff potentially, with with with NASA. And. Yeah. But one, super priority it's, like it, rings my most fun thing so, kind, of foul that to the max. Over. Here, hi. My name is Chris Lafleur, I work. For Congress for representative, John Conyers a couple, days ago I read about you talking about artificial. Intelligence and the dangers of it and, how, as a, as. A businessman you are. Totally. Against regulation, and stuff like that but as a you, know a human being you think it's critical that we get ahead of this issue yeah, can, you please elaborate. On like. Why. What. Are you saying that we don't get to see and, what. As a policy, maker I should be looking to do to. Sort of I guess protect, us all. Well. I think. It is, difficult to appreciate just how far. Artificial. Intelligence has advanced, and how far it is, advancing. Because. We have a double, exponential. At work we. Have an exponential increase in, hardware. Capability, and. We have an exponential, increase in. Software. Talent that is going into AI. So. Whenever. You have a double exponential it's very difficult to predict the, predictions. Almost always going to be too conservative in terms of thinking. It'll be further out than it is. You. Know you start to see things like if. You seem like the the videos where, you can. Sort. Of really quite accurately, video. Simulate, someone. And. Put, words in their mouth that they never spoke. Use. Google is it's really pretty amazing, and. Then. They they had something, called a, generative. Adversarial. Network I had, two of them. Compete. With one another to make, the most convincing video, so. One. Would generate the video and, then the other one would identify. Where it. Looked fake and, then, but that, would the other one would fix that and. Then they'd go back and forth to, the point where can. Tell which one is the real real, video which one is the paperboy and. You. Know sleep have been some very, public things, like the, defeat of alphago. Or. To be of go by alphago, the, world's best go champion people thought defeating, go was either, never or 20 years away that was, Wells best go, player was defeated, and.
Now That. Same alphago, system can defeat the top 50 players simultaneously with. Zero percent of chance of them winning, and. That's one year later. So. The, degrees of freedom to which artificial, intelligence is able to apply itself are, really. Increasing I. Think. By 10. Orders of magnitude a yeah. That's. Really crazy. So. I think and, we're talking yeah and this is on hardware, that is really not as well suited for neural. Nets you. Know. Like. A GPU is, maybe an automatic to better than CPU, but. Something but a chip. That is designed optimally, for neural nets is an order of magnitude better. Than a GPU. And. That. Is there, are a whole bunch of. Neural. Net optimized chips coming out. Either. Late this year or next year. So. I think. We, should. You. Know the father. All the government is to make sure. The public is. Safe. Like to take care of public. Safety issues and, I think so I think the right move is to establish some. Government. Or agency which, at first is just, there to gain, insight, so. It's. Not about like shooting from the hip and just putting in rules before anyone knows anything but. You gotta stuff agency, it's, got a gain. Insight once. That inside is. Gained then start, applying rules. And regulations. We. Have that full of the you know for aircraft if they got, that for cars, good that for, you. Know drugs for food. And. I, don't think anyone wants, the FAA to go away or FTA to go away or you. Know any. Of those regulatory agencies. I. Think. We just meet them to make sure people do not cut corners on AI safety. It's. Maybe a gate it's gonna be a real big deal. And. It's gonna come on like a like a tidal wave. Alright, thanks to see over, here question. Good, afternoon, my. Name is Anna and I'm a film. Director and VR producer, and, I'm. Currently working on a, film when I documentary, film about future. Scenarios, for Humanity which actually brought me to this amazing, conference. Where I can learn and. Complete my research on the space exploration, area, and in, the previous three days there, was a lot, of talks. Which. Is I think an, extremely, beautiful phenomenon. About this kind, of dual philosophy.
Behind Space. Exploration. And space solutions. About, solutions. That are coming back to earth that can benefit, humankind. In very very wide area and today, we've been talking about the commercialization. Of the of, the space area. And it, brings a, lot of questions, to me about social responsibility, behind. Gigantic. Companies, that would actually, probably take over how. The, space industry would develop in the nearest future so. I'm very curious how you see, in long term, these. Kind of benefits. For people or social, goals for, for, SpaceX, and, especially, in the context that. You. Are an, entrepreneur that, invests. In, infrastructure. And transport, cart, solution, that would probably change, the way, most, of us live and the, way we communicate, with each other so I'm. Very very curious how you see that in terms of long term mission long term philosophy. And, what. Would be your advice or, maybe a, kind of security signal, for. Other, of your colleagues, and for, all of us. You. Know I'm not sure I fully understood. The. Question. The. Yeah. Well the answer. But. Yes. I think. Mainly about. The. Long-term, benefits, from, the, RNG and ever stats, your companies, would conduct that could actually also, not, only serving building, a service that can be useful, for business. Or the people but also benefit. Societies. In, a wider context. And also knowing, that it will probably. Interest. The commercial industry in space would probably develop very quickly and it. Will grow how. Do you see a social. Responsibility. Of the companies, who actually do, that and. Where. Are the limits of what can be done which should be done the, same way as you think about for example open AI mission. And area, of of, AI development, so. Can you track could be translated, into space industry, endeavors. Well. I think there's a pretty, big social benefit, or. Civilizational. Benefit to being. A multi-planet, civilization. You. Know that. Dramatically. Increases the probable i span of human civilization, if we are a multi-planet, species versus, a single planet species. Sometimes. That is misinterpreted as, well. Can, we just focus everything on earth it's like well you, know but we, should focus almost. Everything on earth but I think weather should be maybe, 1%. Or 2% of our resources that are. Applied to making. Life multiplanetary. Because. There's certain irreducibly, reducible, risks, for. Here you know for on, earth, it's, you know it's possible in the future that there there's. Some global war that knocks. Us back many, levels of technology, you know suddenly if it was a, major. Nuclear war would and. There's. Just. So the general decay of societies, over time, we. See this through, history we know look at ancient. Egypt. You. Know they had reached, peak, peak technology, levels and then for reasons that aren't obvious just, declined. And. You. Know something, just having, being. A multi-planet civilization. Having. Human. Bases throughout the solar system, I think. First. Watching was very exciting and inspiring and they need to be things that are exciting, and inspiring and. Make. You look. Forward to waking up in the morning like it's like a futures. Excitement. This. Is underappreciated. You. Know like tunnels. Sorry. Absolutely. And. You. Know but there's got to be things that make. You excited about life. Like. You can't just be problem-solving, you, know one once or miserable problem after another it's got to be like I'm fired up about the future again here's why and.
Space. Is one of those things that that, does that people, all around the world. You, know when. When. Apollo. 11 when, they landed on the moon I mean it was that was something for all of humanity really was you know if, you will you. Know if there's like one TV for 50 miles around people would walk you. Know there's 150 miles just to go find, that one TV with to what should happen. So. You know sometimes people think well what about what, about the nations of the world like you know what it's fire inspires them to, and. You. Know we need things like that we don't, have an awful ooh. All. Right thank you sir over here. Hyeyeon. Quick question. I heard. That dragon, is no longer planned to land propulsively. Is, that true. Yeah. That was a tough decision, it's. Dragon is capable of landing pregnant, to is capable of landing propulsively. And. It. Technically it still it, still is. Although. You'd. Have to land it on, some pretty, soft. Landing. Pad because, we've, deleted, the little legs that pop out of the heat shield. But. It's technically still capable of doing it the. The. Reason we decided not to pursue that heavily, is it would have taken a tremendous. Amount of effort to qualify. That. For. Safety particularly. For crew, crew transport and then. There. Was a time when I thought that the Dragon approach to landing, on Mars. We've. Got a base heat shield and side. Mounted thrusters. Would be the right way to land, on Mars but. Now. I've pretty. Confident that it's not the right way and. That there's, a there's a far better approach. And. And. That, that's what the next generation of. SpaceX. Rockets. To space craft it's. Gonna do. So. Yeah. So just the difficulty of safely. Qualifying, dragon, for propulsive landing and. The fact that. Pro. Technology. Evolution, standpoint. It it. Was no longer in line with or we were, confident was the the, optimal way to land on Mars that's. Why we are not. Pursuing it it could be something that we bring back later, but. It's. It. Doesn't, seem like the, right way to apply resources right, now. We're, high, ulong, my, name is Elia overby I'm a PhD student studying, genomics, we've, all made of evolve together and made a lot of technological progress on.
Space Systems, my, question isn't about the technology, it's about the biology, what. Are the principal biological. Concerns you have about human, health on long-duration missions, such, as a mission to Mars and have. You identified any solutions. To these problems. Well. I say. Gardo. Mars is not for the faint of heart. And. Is. Risky, dangerous. Uncomfortable. And you might die. Now. Do you want to go yeah. You. Know what, a lot of people answer is gonna be hell, though and force no Muscovy hell yes. So. You. Know you. Know there. Will be issues I don't. Think it's like it's. Gonna be a case of like you get it radiated, to death along the way I don't think that's capable. Yeah. You know the radiation, levels sort of roughly. You. Know in, worst-case now I really kind. Of about equivalent to smoking on, the way there now, smoking is pretty bad. But. But. I think with. Weed. With some water shielding. We can cut down on a. Large. Percentage, of the. Incremental. Radiation, and. That should be enough that. That. The the. Sort of marginal risk of. Cancer. Is, not, something that is gonna be a showstopper. That's. That's my best assessment, to, date. Something. Learning a lot about solar. Winds and. You. Know fast particles and, or. Not and. Then. One of things I learned recently that I wasn't didn't, didn't quite understand. Is that the I always, thought of the particles, from the Sun. The. Sort of solar wind is going kind of straight up from the Sun but, they they. Follow the magnetic field lines, so. You actually, can get the. Particles. Coming at you from the side even, though it's. Kind of a directional, thought of all to the Sun. So. You do need some kind of some amount of. Protection. At. Least on. Beyond. Kind, of four, four. Or five sides. Hey. But I don't think it's it's, not a showstopper but. It's is. It's definitely you know if if. Safety is your top goal I wouldn't go to Mars, you. Know there's a there's a bunch of work going on ISS, right now to understand, the risk to the humans for long-duration yeah certainly we're, in the Van Allen belts the radiation of our different, but. And all part of it is understanding what happens to the humans the, longer you stay so so, far we've, had humans stay a little bit longer than a year and that's it so in the history of the species, they've. Had, someone off the planet for a little more than a year and we're talking three years to go to Mars well, you, know I think perhaps. Perhaps, shorter but it's in the years it's, a you, know it's so. Potential. For for things out there that we haven't found yet yeah and so. We'll learn more as we go along hopefully. Learn more before ISS, is done yeah. It's they're saying that actually the yeah. You. Know Mars is only the same. Sort. Of rough. Quadrant, of the, earth. Six, roughly six months every two years. By. Same I mean sort of transfer, slightly offset because it's like a transfer, quadrant but. But. If you can get the ship to and from Mars in inside. That six-month window then. You get to reuse it twice as often, so. There's actually a lot of Merit. To being, able to get to Mars in. Under three months if. You can get there quick and back or skip makes a bigger a bigger vehicle, and, resupply. So, anyway, well the, interesting, problem, that will I'm, sure we'll work on yeah as, we go forward a, lot. Of Earth orbit refueling, over yeah it's not really closely, oxygen, but it. Repellent. We know they look good for word for propellant, for, fuel plus oxygen. Prop. I guess proper. Pablote will, have to do it will have to invent a new word right that's it. Okay. A question, over here. Dmitry, star the performs in Los Angeles first. Thank, you very much for digging those tunnels, they will be really handy during Olympics. My. Question, is like with, Tesla, cars will, we see you writing, the crew module to, Isis and back thank, you. I. Would. Like to at some point I would. Like to. Yeah. I think. Giving. Things, work out you. Know I know. I'd like to yeah, maybe three. Three or four years something. Yeah. Great. Alright. We'll put you on the manifest, okay. Next. Question over here hello. I'm Ana Sofia Bulgaria and, I have kind of a follow-up on the biology question from before it. Is one, thing to say obviously, it's not going to be a safe experience to go to Mars but there are some technologies essential. Especially if we're looking to putting humans there permanently. That, are going to be have that are going to have to be developed with biological capabilities.
Not Worried about wait for it tunneling, machine you're like wait actually one one that's nice and heavy. But. Mars, one you'd have to redesign it to be super light that's a tricky one and I'm just taking account the different conditions on Mars and everything. Yeah. I think. The you. Know the the, Curiosity, rover and the tires being chewed up by the the sharpness of the just of the dirt of the gravel there it's a very very. Foreign. Environment, to us and even in very subtle way so yeah. Let's. See you next question over here hi. Ellen my, name is profiler, Chandra I'm a regenerative. Medicine scientist, from Wake Forest University my. Question is regarding your company, near a link that. Makes a brain machine interfaces. So. What, do you think this technology how. Is it useful for, humans. When they are you know going to low-earth orbits, or even deep space explorations. And do, you have any plans in that direction. Well. The, the. Reason for the reason I want to create neural link was primarily. As an offset to, the existential, risk associated with artificial. Intelligence, I. Think. We, will. Hear. Intelligence, will be, not, I mean will not be able to beat AI. So. Then you know the saying goes we can't beat em join em kind of thing. So. I think having some you. Know some basic not equate up to link. You. Know human, will on mass to, the, outcome, of. AI. Having. AI be an extension of individual. Human well that's really the point, of neural. Link now along the way, I think there'll be a lot of good that's in. Addressing. Any. Brain, damage that's. You, know as a result of a stroke or lesion. Or something. Congenital. Or. Just. Loss, of memory when you get old that kind of thing. And. You. Know they'll be able to happen well before it, it, becomes, a sort. Of. You. Know. Brain, AI some buy out situation. So. If we play it you'll, see it coming it'll be it. Went or what happened all of a sudden. Betty. I do, you think it increases. The long-term relevance, of human, exploration. And. And. Yeah. I think I think it's. For. Me it increased, my motivation, long, term that. That, it doesn't just need to be down by robots you. Know. Yeah. But. If that answers your question. Does. That answer your question oh yes. All. Right let's see maybe were one more question here and we'll we'll, wrap it up on the left here, hey. Caller. From space nation as. We are building the first claw cholesterol, training program for everyone, my, question.
Relates What, you earlier said to the in about the International Space Station and how it's a shame that it's not better known around the world as, probably. Compared for example the shuttle program so. And. Thinking. That in the future we need thousands. And more space, pioneers. So how do you see the significance. Of this public, engagement. And especially, in the time where. We have more and more tools to do that and and, do you have specific plans, on that and how you see that affecting. Accelerating. Or does it have and that kind of effect for the whole. Humanities. Transition, to space and under the new space era, sure. Well. I think just. Getting more more. Human. Spaceflight is gonna automatically, engage the public I just point out that the Space, Shuttle there was a lot, more engagement. When the space shuttle was launching, I. Think. If. There's a public park sees some some, path, even if it's long term where. They themselves, may, be able to go. To orbit, or beyond or just new to the Moon or Mars I think their interest level increases. Dramatically and it may not be even that. That, they want to go but they have a son. Or a daughter. Brother. Friend. That really wants to do it and and and so they want to support this you. Know friends and family in. That in, that ambition. But. It really needs to be something ultimately, that looks like it's going to be accessible to a. Large. Number of people and. Then I think, we'll get a large number of people engaged and. One, of the things about engagement too I think for, the u.s. anyway will be we, have it people launched, from the United States so absolutely, I can't tell you how people around the world said oh you, know oh you guys are still flying well absolutely never stop flying yeah we've had people in on board ISS. You. Know for almost 17, years and. But. They don't see the smoke in the fire right I see that they say they, knew that drone TV and there's a shuttle going and it's got seven. People on board and they see it and, nowadays. At least in the u.s. it's, half a world away so here. In a week a week from Friday we'll be launching three people yeah, but, it. Doesn't feel the same as if it was happening, in in our backyard, and yeah in Florida that's what so so, we're looking forward to to, that happening very soon here in in the, US and, we, wish you the best of luck thank you thanks very much for being here today thanks for for, joining the conference.