Why day trading has a high failure rate | How to fix this
what is up everybody i want to talk about the high failure rate in trading so if you're brand new to trading you have less than a year experience of trading or you're developing or even struggling this video is going to be pretty insightful so as most of us know there's statistics out there floating around about how trading has a 99 point something [ __ ] percent failure rate or 95 failure rate and only a fraction of a percent are actually making legit real money um a lot of people question that stat a lot of people want to know if that's true so i want to kind of address that uh from my own experience and running a trading community and networking with a [ __ ] load of traders for years has given me some insight and i would like to address that but before we do i would like you to meet tarukosaurus rex i am selling him for 25 cents each uh this is his box he likes living in here he's a good cat he's pretty hefty he likes to eat a lot of food so if you guys would like to buy him please let me know again 25 cents i am not shipping internationally i'm just kidding i'm not gonna give him up but he's a badass cat so i'm gonna stick him up here while i uh talk actually my shoulder is gonna [ __ ] die because he's so goddamn heavy um anyways if i want him to hang out with me i just put this box somewhere and he'll just sit in it um so anyways a lot of traders don't a lot of you guys don't really see what trading really is and we're gonna also get into that like what really is trading how do you get better uh at it so first and foremost let's go ahead and start with uh stats so there's been some studies done uh there's been one done at an exchange in a different country and they talk about how high the failure rate is um and then there's been another study out there through a brokerage in the u.s that talks about how high the failure rate is and how uh a lot of people blow out generally pretty quickly and here's the thing when you get in the trading you need to survive for as long as possible this is definitely a survival sport um but are are these statistics true we don't really know what are some specific factors with these statistics is it really is the failure rate really that high because if we look at twitter it seems like ninety percent of the people on twitter are doing really good um [ __ ] i hit my uh daily drawdown on friday i posted that [ __ ] on twitter and it's funny because i got a lot of response to that a lot of people hit me up and i'm i'm pretty [ __ ] transparent with uh what's going on in my trading so it allows me it brings down the defense for other traders that they can approach me and they can be transparent about their trading and most traders are struggling out there in fact uh you know i've ran trading rooms for two years now um i would say that it's probably been my two year anniversary a few days ago as far as running trading rooms go i've been networking and dealing with traders for four years but now for the last two three-ish years i've been dealing with traders almost every single day um especially this last year and i i deal with experienced traders i deal with a lot of new traders so i have a i have a look in the industry that most people don't get to see you guys yeah you guys see [ __ ] on twitter but it's all [ __ ] most people are [ __ ] struggling so i i have you know i've been guiding helping mentoring traders and i've been doing it for free um i've had people even offer me money to help them i've never felt worthy to charge um and if you look through my a lot of my youtube videos if people are asking me questions i write big lengthy [ __ ] messages so i i have a lot of engagement in the community and i have a really good insight for what's going on and in my opinion i definitely do think the failure rate is that [ __ ] high and i want to explain why that is and i want to explain how you [ __ ] fix the [ __ ] problem so that's that's what i want to talk about so this is pretty [ __ ] important [ __ ] but before i like get into a lot of that stuff i want to go ahead and look at uh this all right so this is from you profit this is going to be a trading combine um they only gave out uh there was only a million dollars in withdrawals in 2021 i'm not sure what their profit split is i think it's pretty favorable for the trader so obviously the traders made more than a million dollars uh i would think but like let's look at these stats and a lot of these combines put these things out and these numbers are just as depressing so first and foremost there's uh only a million dollars roughly was withdrawn in the year of 2021. so what does that tell us well that tells us not one trader is a seven figure trader with this combine okay so far there's been 45 4600 roughly 4 600 funded traders in 2021 so let's do some stupid math and let's just kind of look at this so we got a max of a million uh dollars here so million 21 uh 472 45 so we need to add that 45 cents that is very important and if we divide it by the amount of funded traders you can see that that's only 222 dollars that ain't [ __ ] right but what we do know is that most of these funded guys ain't making anything i personally uh every time i see uh new traders try these [ __ ] combines uh i've seen a lot of them get funded and then they just blow it out so i first hand see that [ __ ] happen a lot they keep trying it they keep trying it they keep trying it and then they get funded and then they blow out and then they keep trying it keep trying it they get funded and then they blow out so what i'm thinking is happening is most of these guys here are not making any [ __ ] money so it says 45 97 have been funded right since 2021 is that how many are currently funded i don't really think that is the case right that's how many that actually maybe passed to the funded stage that's what i think that number is and they're just putting that [ __ ] in there to [ __ ] make it look good to make this [ __ ] look better than what it really is so the average withdrawal is a thousand dollars is that per month or per [ __ ] year that's the question uh if it's pre per year that's really [ __ ] bad okay and uh that might be the case because once you get funded you make a little bit of money and then you pay yourself and then you blow it out right that could be the case if that's per month that's better but even that [ __ ] sucks that's not covering your lamborghini payment right there uh that thousand dollars you're not you're not covering your lamborghini payment and you're definitely not uh paying your bills with that thousand dollars and there's your top ten traders down here so what i'm thinking is these top ten guys are probably making most of the money none of them are seven figure traders probably one or two of these guys are the ones who are making the most money but if you really look at these numbers it's pretty depressing so let's go ahead and do this math let's go ahead and look at the million dollars that was withdrawn 1 million 21 4 72 and 45 cents baby so uh how many times does a thousand dollars go into it so let's do that so a thousand thirty it goes in there 991 times now let's divide it by 12 months so if the average withdrawal is only is a thousand and thirty dollars that tells me only 82 traders are actually funded out of the 45 4600 that actually reached the funded stage and what we're not seeing is how many [ __ ] guys tried the combine and never got funded that number is going to be substantially [ __ ] higher so with that being said this is this that [ __ ] right there further proves how [ __ ] up the success rate is in trading this is hard man this is the equivalent of sports i say this [ __ ] all the time and i know some of you guys [ __ ] hate that analogy if you don't like it you know what the door will actually this trading room doesn't have a door it has an acoustic blanket so the uh acoustic blanket right is right there if you'd like to see your way out don't let the flap hit you where the good lord splits you that basically means don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out um let's go ahead and look at this cat real quick look at him god what a fat beast what a fat beast oh he knows i'm talking about him anyways the the failure rate is high so we got stats through brokerage houses and exchanges that say the failure rate is high these numbers on this you profit thing shows that you're really not making that [ __ ] much money doing this and the failure rate is pretty [ __ ] high just to get funded and stay funded because i'm pretty sure that they don't currently have 45 4 600 funded traders i i just don't see that that's the case i could be wrong and i'm definitely not drinking smart water i'm drinking dumb water today so keep that in mind so with my own personal experience dealing with traders every day all day i've dealt with a couple hundred of them i'm not sure the exact number the number of traders that i've consistently worked with on a day-by-day basis is a lot less i've had a many one-time interactions but i think i have a good enough sample size that allows me to see into the retail industry that a lot of you simply don't get to see because you don't network the way i do and again um when i deal with tram deal with traders it's you know there's no defense usually around me people are going to be honest and truthful about what's going on um and that's okay um a lot of traders feel safe around me in the sense that i'm not gonna judge them for being stupid because they want the [ __ ] help whereas if you're somewhere in twitter everybody is having a dick measuring contest and everybody wants uh to make it look like they're doing really good but that's not really the [ __ ] case if you peel peel it back most guys are [ __ ] struggling okay so with that being said um i think i know why traders are are [ __ ] failing you guys don't you guys don't realize uh you guys are thinking about trading completely wrong so there was a tweet i saw that i can't find um on why traders fail and a lot of it is the stuff you guys know about psychology patience waiting trading your setup um all that [ __ ] and that's not entirely true here's a problem when you get in the trading you're thinking about the money that is the problem and some people never stop thinking about the money at some point you got to stop thinking about the money within your first year you're not going to make any money in this you're probably not going to make any money for the second year the first year needs to be spent developing and getting better it is the reason traders fail is they're not developing their skills they're not developing their trading skills okay i have a lot of traders that ask me very specific questions and there's there's just certain things i can't share or teach uh because you la you need experience there's just there's no substituting the time and the experience um there's some traders that know exactly how i trade and i explain everything i'm doing in very great detail and they they struggle and can't do it the way i'm [ __ ] doing it uh because they lack order flow experience and they they aren't fast enough uh they haven't traded specific environments as long as i have so the the experience thing is the biggest thing and listen if you just got in the trading and you've not experienced the summer time you're going to be in for a rude awakening if you started trading in the summer time and then you started experience this high volatility environment we're in right the [ __ ] now it's january 16th so we've had high volatility environments if you started in the summer time this is going to be challenging for you some traders and here's the thing i think you should spend the first year on demo i've spent years on demo and then what i did was i found an a-plus setup that had a statistical edge and then i started trading that live and then i'd go back to demo and then continue to trade just a plus setups live and then start transitioning um but a lot of people can't do demo a lot i hear a lot of [ __ ] excuses with demo i hear things like oh i need to trade micros because i need to feel what live money feels like i need to feel what losing live money feels like that's [ __ ] that's [ __ ] [ __ ] or you guys start doing combines in the first year and you can't you shouldn't be doing that because until you've experienced a full season of trading you're not going to be able to trade the in the environment when the conditions shift if you've not traded high volatility you're going to struggle you're not going to be able to do it if you've not traded very low volume low volatility environment you're not going to know if you should be sitting out you're going to end up probably getting just bleed out in those types of conditions your approach changes drastically as these conditions shift and then also when i was trading the uh the book was a lot thicker pre-covered and then es got permanently thin after covet so that's an example of the market completely changing and you could see that in my pre-covered videos how much thicker the es was hell if you never traded the coveted [ __ ] meltdown i couldn't [ __ ] do it i see i tried to do a tryout uh almost like in combine but it was to get hired at smb on the futures desk and i decided to do it right as covet happened i told i kept telling myself like i said okay i'm gonna do it in january like i'm gonna spend january trying it out on my own demo so i met the target i was able to make the money without hitting the max drawdown and i'm go let's try it one more time in february and i said at the end of february we're gonna go for it and well [ __ ] at the end of february is when the meltdown happened i just couldn't do it i failed miserably i didn't know how to approach that kind of [ __ ] volatility when the [ __ ] [ __ ] is going 50 ticks in a blink of an eye okay and i i was experiencing horrific slippage on my stops too so yeah it was it was bad and if you've not experienced these types of things you're you're gonna get [ __ ] up you need to go through a full season you're not gonna make money the first year you're not all right again i've dealt with so many traders mostly new guys and i've not seen one [ __ ] new guy make it i have not seen one new guy make it i only know if personally i only know of three consistently profitable traders that i personally speak to and one of those guys [ __ ] disappeared i don't know what the [ __ ] happened to him the other two that i know that are consistent have not been consistent for an entire full [ __ ] year and they also have years of experience they have years of experience and they're just now coming into consistency that's the reality of what [ __ ] trading is so when you're seeing all this [ __ ] uh where people are like ooh my [ __ ] 500 a day trading strategy super simple my easy setup in any my market condition that's all at least when it comes to trading the ese mini maybe i'm just trading a [ __ ] up market uh and there's easier [ __ ] to trade uh well then i guess i'm [ __ ] [ __ ] for that but i think trading a really hard market makes you a better trader right i don't know all i know is the es emini it's a co-dependent relationship anyways i'm just like i just don't feel like venturing into other stuff i've tried and it's just like i this is the market i [ __ ] know and i'm coming to terms with just being a specialist in it because i understand it so much better and when i try to read order flow in another market i just i can't um so the problem the problem is though you knew guys you guys are just thinking about the p l um that's all you guys are thinking about you're thinking about the p l and all that matters to you guys is printing a [ __ ] green day it's f that's not how you that's not a win that is not a win you lack you lack skills okay you're not going to come into this arena that has professionals who are smarter than you have more money than you have better technology than you they're going to take your [ __ ] money you're not taking their money okay you're not going to step into this because there's so much you need to learn and there's so many phases you got to go through before consistency there's no just getting into this and then being consistent there's a [ __ ] shitload of stuff in between here and here and the problem is a lot of new traders try to go from here to here immediately you guys rush to do these combines to get [ __ ] funded you guys are trying to make money asap and what's happening is you're [ __ ] hurting yourself because you're going from here to here and when i see guys that have you know five six seven ten years of experience and they're either not consistently profitable or they're barely making [ __ ] that's [ __ ] up because what's really bad about trading is you can waste years of your life doing this and show nothing for it and that's that's the cold hard truth when you start to go down that route eventually it takes a toll on your mental health at some point this is going to take a toll on your mental health and when you're trying to go from here to here without doing all the [ __ ] in between you're prolonging your [ __ ] learning curve because at some point you're gonna have to work on all these other things before you can get here ask me how i know because i've done that myself i've done that myself i've tried to go from here to here there's no reason i'm five [ __ ] years into trading and i'm just now doing really decent i should have been doing better a lot sooner like i'll see these guys that are at smb capital and they they claim some of these traders are consistent in about you know two years or some [ __ ] a year or two years and and a lot of their traitors aren't consistent in their first [ __ ] year and they got professional [ __ ] help and guidance and they get shown trades with edge you don't you're out here on your [ __ ] own you don't have [ __ ] going on to help you so if it takes these professional traders a year and they might not even make it in a professional environment if it takes these professionals if it takes a trader in a professional environment a year to get consistent how the [ __ ] you think you're gonna do it in a few months it makes no [ __ ] sense but you guys aren't thinking about it like this the problem is this is like the movie the matrix you're living in the matrix you're looking at all these youtubers that are making all this money you're looking at all these twitter traders that are making all this money you're looking at these twitter traders that reward themselves with a new ferrari and they're living the lifestyle the trader lifestyle and you're just eating the blue pill and staying in the matrix when in reality i'm trying to show you what the red pill is so you can [ __ ] leave it and that's you need to focus on your skill development you need to learn very basic [ __ ] that has nothing to do with p l that has absolutely nothing to do with p l because again you're not going gonna go to a professional baseball game with zero experience and beat those [ __ ] guys at their own game you're gonna get [ __ ] crushed you're gonna get [ __ ] crushed okay it's one thing if you watch baseball and you're really good at it that's like the equivalent of studying trading for years but until you actually play the [ __ ] game it's a whole different pro set of problems you gotta come in here and perform every [ __ ] day i don't know any other job or you gotta really maybe professional pokers players i don't know of any other job where you're gonna have to show up and perform every [ __ ] day at the highest possible level because you can have one day where you're not feeling that well and you're human and that's gonna happen and you could [ __ ] yourself royally and [ __ ] entire weeks of profit or a month of profit or you could put yourself in a slump and you could give back the entire year really quickly you got to show up to this job and sit in front of a computer five days a week and perform that's [ __ ] hard man to sit here and not want to start looking at social media or start looking at something else start surfing the web to sit here and actually pay a [ __ ] tension to what's going on even if it seems like nothing's going on you should still be paying attention it's hard to say we live in a cold i mean [ __ ] dude the amount of people that are actually going to make it to the end of this video is going to be very low it's gonna be like 14 so if you can't make it to this [ __ ] video how the [ __ ] you gonna sit in front of this computer for hours at a time and pay attention to what's going on in the market you got to develop the ability to do that you can't just do that okay i i can't tell you how many times i see traders put on a trade and they're immediately talking about it stop typing because you need to pay attention to what you just [ __ ] did because when you're not looking at the [ __ ] screen and you're like oh i'm in the [ __ ] trade well guess what you're missing context in the order flow you need i mean [ __ ] here's the thing man for your first year spin it on [ __ ] demo because you can learn everything you need to learn on [ __ ] demo yes it's not live money yeah you're not gonna feel live money but you don't need to feel [ __ ] live money yet the problem is when you start trading micros immediately to feel live money because you need to feel the live money for [ __ ] some reason you're gonna trade the [ __ ] micros you need to feel what it feels like to lose real money why you need to feel the emotion of trading live money no no the problem is when you [ __ ] go do that and you lack experience and skill development you're not [ __ ] confident so now you're now you're taking trades and you ain't really all that [ __ ] confident because i can tell you something if you can develop your confidence on demo and you're seeing you have a st you're trading live data okay obviously you want to have a good demo if you want a really solid demo i suggest the jigsaw trading dom i can use my affiliate link and my coupon code 30 bucks off all you got to do is pay is your data feed and you can just trade that [ __ ] demo for like 10 11 bucks a month for as long as you want and that's your overhead that's your overhead right there that's very cheap way to learn how to do this okay but but i mean [ __ ] dude you know you you you wanna you can develop your confidence on demo that's what i [ __ ] did that's what i [ __ ] did i'm like okay i got set up because you're trading live market data you're being forced to wait in a queue on the jigsaw [ __ ] you're trading live [ __ ] market data it's a real [ __ ] deal yeah there's gonna be slight variations but i can tell you but there's been times where i thought i was live and i wasn't and i thought i wasn't live and i was and honestly i didn't notice that big of a difference between live and demo on jigsaw there is some weird [ __ ] that makes it slightly off but it's pretty close that there's been times where i've actually not toggled one account from the other and didn't realize it so the the problem is you want to feel live money but if if you're not confident you're making it a [ __ ] load worse to when you do trade the micros it becomes a a [ __ ] emotional experience at that point and then you're trading like [ __ ] [ __ ] because you lack confidence because you didn't spend time building your confidence building out a trading system with edge building an actual setup with edge takes a long [ __ ] time it does i have a lot to say about that [ __ ] and you're [ __ ] yourself on micros you get and here's why else you're [ __ ] yourself on micros you're gonna sit there make seven bucks a day that doesn't who don't [ __ ] do that if you want to [ __ ] trade trade a realistic size in the e-minis in my opinion or the micros if tray two lots three lots on the minis on demo so that way you're comfortable with that on demo i know for some people they're like well demo is not an emotional experience good for me it was for me i freaked out when i would lose demo money and it would ruin my day you're at an advantage if it's not an emotional experience if it doesn't feel the same you know why you're at an advantage because now you can think clearly and you can actually [ __ ] trade and don't get me wrong there's some people that get consistently profitable on a demo but they traded like [ __ ] idiots okay if you're gonna trade on demo and you're gonna start scaling 20 lots into a [ __ ] 3 000 [ __ ] losing position and i'm spitting all over the place because i'm passionate right now but if you you know a lot of people trade like [ __ ] complete idiots on demo and they're like oh i'm consistent and and it's like yeah but you wouldn't trade like that for real in real life why the [ __ ] are you doing that you need to treat it like it's real [ __ ] life and if you're trading like a [ __ ] idiot and you're scaling up 10 [ __ ] lots into a losing position and you're swinging a 5 000 loser you ain't gonna be able to [ __ ] emotionally handle that type of drawdown in real life you're not and if you're doing that on a demo that type of [ __ ] problem that that type of behavior is going to translate into your [ __ ] live trading that that's how i feel about micros i mean you can disagree with me and here and another problem is when you're trading micros you start to over manage you take three four trades a day i've seen it i've seen it a lot he ain't [ __ ] learning [ __ ] by doing that you ain't learning [ __ ] by doing that what you need to [ __ ] do is be on demo and you need to [ __ ] trade a [ __ ] load trade 50 [ __ ] times a day trade 60 times a day well yeah but wouldn't that cause impulsive trading when that caught isn't that over trading yeah it is yeah it absolutely is but you know what you're getting gaining from that you're learning how to get fast you're learning the difference between limit orders and market orders and when you should use both of those right you're getting quicker at it you're learning to tap into the order flow because watching the market is entirely different than actually placing the trade because when you place a trade it becomes personal at that point it's like a baseball player that goes to the [ __ ] batting cages is he trying to [ __ ] win and hit home runs no none of that matters you know why you go to the batting cages is because you're working on techniques if my if i get into a trade and my mouse cursor is on a different screen that ain't good i need to learn how to keep that [ __ ] mouse cursor real tight so i can get in and get out really quickly [ __ ] you guys see the way i [ __ ] trade in my videos that's because i spent a tremendous amount of time tick drilling on demo for years and and and the problem is when you're sitting there taking three four trades on a [ __ ] micros you're more prone to freezing up you're more prone to [ __ ] freezing up and not executing when you should first the guy that took a [ __ ] load of trades and now he doesn't hesitate and when you get into the trade you might start letting the loser go against you whereas the guy that's over traded on a demo will have less of an issue with cutting the trade in re-entering you see the way i cut and re-enter trades at times i'm just sharing with you how i got to where i am in my trading right now and i'm obviously very biased and you can absolutely disagree with me but i think i'm arguing with logic here and i think a lot of what i say makes sense at least to me because you guys are hurting yourself when you sit there on [ __ ] micros and you trade like that you need to [ __ ] dude the guy that's gonna it's it's literally like hitting the baseball who's going to be able to hit the baseball better and in the actual game the guy that hits [ __ ] 50 60 baseballs a day or the guy that hits three to four a day right but yeah but what about the fact that now you're over trading and it's a habit yeah but what did you gain from it you're gonna gain more and you're gonna learn more by doing that [ __ ] you're gonna get more experience you're gonna have a better feel for the market you're going to get quicker at it you're going to be able to cut and re-enter you're not going to hesitate as much you're going to gain a lot more than the bad habit you will develop from it yeah you're going to develop the habit of [ __ ] over trading but now now that you have the experience of developing this specific skill set remember we can't go from here to here we can't go from new to consistently profitable we got to develop the skills in between and getting faster not hesitating and and if you want to learn how to read order flow the best way to re learn how to read order flow is to actually trade the [ __ ] otherwise you ain't paying the [ __ ] tension and the best way to learn how to read order flow is go through my tick drill [ __ ] videos get rid of the [ __ ] charts because if you're trying to trade order flow and you're looking at charts well you're looking at charts and you're no longer looking at the order flow so you have no [ __ ] idea what's going on in the order flow you have no idea what's going on in the order flow you got to get rid of it people ask me all the time can i put up the auction vista can i put this up the chart do i need to take the charts down yeah you need to take the [ __ ] charts down do you want to trade order flow the way i do you want to be as fast as i i am this is what i did if i did it you might want to consider doing it too and if you don't and nobody [ __ ] does nobody [ __ ] does right i got a guy that's trying to trade the setups i trade right now and then we did tick drills last monday and then he tried to trade the setups i'm trading after that and he's like hey man i realize the importance of tick drills and now he's going to start to do him every [ __ ] day because he's starting to realize that if he doesn't develop that skill the setups that i take aren't going to really help him i mean really trying to trade just like me is going to be kind of difficult to begin with really you should be trading developing your own trading identity yeah it's good to model a specific trader it's good to try to do what another trader is doing but at some point you're going to have to develop your own trading identity right you don't have to take any of my [ __ ] advice you don't need a trade order flow to be good at this uh but uh i think reading tape and order flow is very vastly important very important and then at least for me because without it i just oh my god he just [ __ ] fell oh [ __ ] you all right bruh he's out of here oh his fat body rolled it over the edge of the table now let's talk about combines real quick i want to i want to pivot and start talking about combines okay that's another issue yeah you're on demo but the problem with the combine is a combine is for a guy that knows he can pass it that's who should be doing it if you don't have trading capital a combine is a good route to get that trading capital if you do have trading capital a combine is a good way for you to experience live money and losing somebody else's money before you do it with your own money i think combines are a fantastic thing obviously the rules are so strictly tight that uh people approach it like [ __ ] jackasses like they do on demo right i'll see guys have really good p l's but then i look at their mae and their mfe and they're [ __ ] losing 60 ticks to make 10 right you're not going to be able to mentally handle that on live money you're going to trade like [ __ ] you can be doing that for real so if you're doing that in pretend world you're hurting yourself so with the problem with the [ __ ] combine is the rules are so tight you should be trading the largest one of the more larger accounts and you should not be trading the max [ __ ] size okay uh trading eight lots i mean because the problem is you're like ooh 15 lots i can make all of this money yeah you're like oh and i can hit the the monetary goal relatively quickly on 15 lots yeah but do you know how much you're making and losing on 15 [ __ ] lots 15 times 12 and 50 cents in the es that's 180 750 per [ __ ] tick right i got a [ __ ] i generally have a six tick emergency stop that's 1 125 stop outs personally i can't [ __ ] handle that okay that's a [ __ ] huge goddamn stop out and at that point you're probably gonna have a hard time getting them filled completely in specific environments trading eight lots is a hundred bucks a tick you can't handle that [ __ ] mentally you gotta like work your size up to the point you can actually handle that you just don't go trading 15 lots you just don't because those are big p l swings baby and if you don't have confidence in what you're [ __ ] doing your setups you don't understand the statistics behind what you're doing you don't know what if you have positive expectancy it ain't going to work out you ain't going to have the confidence you need to be able to pull it off and the problem is i see this happen all the [ __ ] time all the [ __ ] time i see more people fail at combines than pass and when they pass they blow it out and that's probably why the numbers are the way they are on that you profit statement where there's 45 4 600 funded guys yeah but most of those guys aren't funded anymore i see it happen all the time for years man for years just like i don't see new traders get consistent and stay consistent the first year i don't see people first year traders pass a combine and stay funded yeah they can get lucky and pass it but the problem with the combine is now you're treating it like the guy that goes to the [ __ ] gas station to buy [ __ ] scratch-off tickets right you're gonna keep wasting this money yeah sure it's less less money than it would be to trade live but you're going to keep wasting money uh redoing these combines and then it's like the guy you know getting the scratch off ticket he wins 50 bucks you went you getting funded is like the guy winning the 50 on the scratch off but the problem is once you're funded you gonna you need to treat it like that's it you need to treat it like that's that's that because now from this point forward you need to stay consistently profitable for well [ __ ] how long do you plan on trading for 10 [ __ ] years 20 years for the rest of your life well once you get funded you need to stay consistently profitable for the rest of your trading career right and if you really sit there and think about it how are you gonna [ __ ] manage that if you don't know if you lack experience and properly develop skills you need to trade well right when i do it's funny because when i did my tick drills on monday i lost sixteen hundred demo dollars but that wasn't the point the p l was not the point of it uh because you're doing it first and foremost i'm doing it without charts so i lack context i don't know if i'm trading in a [ __ ] up spot or not i don't know if i'm trading at a point of control because if i'm trading at a point of control it's going to trade like [ __ ] so that obviously is uncomfortable but that exercise is meant to be uncomfortable that exercise is supposed to be that's that's how you get better at [ __ ] you need to put yourself in situations where you're [ __ ] uncomfortable and tick drills is uncomfortable and it's not to make p l it's to learn how to get quicker and to be reading order flow and if you're losing on the tick drills that's okay because you're starting to see things in the order flow that you wouldn't be seeing if you weren't doing that practice maybe i see a bid come in and pull maybe i see somebody start iceberging maybe i'm starting to really notice hey there's a lot of large traders hitting at this specific price and then the market comes down and it comes back there and then all of a sudden they hit again and it pops through i'm picking up all this nuanced [ __ ] doesn't matter to make p l what i'm doing is i'm learning how to [ __ ] read the order flow better by doing it none of that [ __ ] matters and the and another advantage of the tick drill is if the tr trade blows out against me six [ __ ] ticks instantly why just hit the flat button and then try to do a good job again and what that's teaching you is how to cut and reset and not have recency bias going into the next trade because a huge problem with traders are whatever just happened tends to shape and influence what your next trade is about to be and when you do the tick drill you're getting in the habit of just cutting it [ __ ] it forget it doesn't matter let's hit the next good trade and that is a that is a specific skill set that you need to develop and use it in your actual [ __ ] trading okay so when i get stopped out it doesn't freak me the [ __ ] out like it normally would if i take two stops in a row i'm not gonna that's not good but i'm not gonna freak the [ __ ] out i'm not gonna sit there and dwell on it i cut it where's the next setup and if i gotta wait 30 minutes for it i will and that is something i've developed and learned through tick drills for doing them for so many years i always did them monday afternoons stop doing them gonna start doing them again because there's an advantage to it and if you can get good at picking up a tick on it more power to you but that's not the point of it and nobody sees that going into it the point is to develop all these little things that have nothing to do with p l and if you can develop your skills in being faster not being so emotionally attached to a trade not freezing up learning how to cut and reenter you develop all that skills and then you start to define and build an actual setup with edge which we've not talked about yet you smash all of that together and then you learn you do tick drills every monday afternoon throughout all of the trading season you're gonna learn what they feel like in high volatility environments you're gonna learn what they feel like in medium volatility environments and lower and you're gonna and if you suck at tick drills in a specific environment and then you're better at them in another environment well [ __ ] now you're starting to notice where when you should be trading and when you should probably consider not trading by doing that [ __ ] there's so much advantage to it and what p l is is simply a reflection of the skills you decided to develop but if you're not sitting there focusing and that's the win that's what you should be winning today i want to get better at this not p l today i want to be more patient in my trading well guess what you want to be more patient you need to [ __ ] meditate on it you need to have a loop timer you need to have a sticky note and you need to constantly be thinking about it you need to build awareness around you need to build the skill of awareness around patience and then if you traded like [ __ ] that day but you were a lot more patient than yesterday well guess what you won the [ __ ] day and you want to continue to work on it relentlessly on just focusing on being patient not p l and it doesn't matter if the p l looks like [ __ ] every single day if you notice that you did exactly what you were supposed to and the trade doesn't have edge that's fine because there's things we can do to develop that but if we start to notice that there's a huge amount of progression in becoming more patient which is very big in trading um and that's something i'm still working on myself that is the win not the p l i don't give a [ __ ] how bad the day is if you were actually patient and did what you were supposed to where you were supposed to that's the win that's the skill development and over time that your p l will reflect all of that so that is that that is literally a [ __ ] gist of everything in between and the problem again on combines is you have to perform on the demo you can't be [ __ ] around experimenting i can't sit here and tick drill on a combine trying to develop specific skill sets because if you go straight to a combine you ain't developing the skill of becoming faster because you got to trade it well you got to trade it like it's real life and the problem is when you fail they offer you a [ __ ] discount they offer you a [ __ ] discount to redo it and then you [ __ ] redo it and it's like the guy getting the scratch off tickets once you get funded and you fail there's a higher likelihood that you're going to come back and start doing it again and because you're like well [ __ ] i made it once i think i can make it again and then you're trapped in this endless cycle of doing combines it's and the guy with the scratch-off tickets when he wins on 50 bucks on a scratch-off ticket what do you think he's gonna do with that 50 bucks buy more scratch-off tickets don't be that guy if you fail a combine you need to sit on your ass and try to pass it on your own demo within the rules and then go do it again or if you fail what you should do is well what skills am i lacking did i get tilted am i getting upset am i too impulsive are you even keeping track of this [ __ ] are you even reviewing the recording of your session because if you're not here's the thing everybody wants to be a [ __ ] traitor until they have to do traitor work i sit here for two three four [ __ ] hours at the end of each session reviewing everything everything i told you guys i was gonna do in my new year's video go ahead and check it out i am doing that i'm building out a book of charts that could take an hour sometimes and then i gotta stat track every [ __ ] trade and that takes a can take a few hours and then i review all the stats and then i talk about what happened what i learned why was this trade so good let's study that right what did the order flow look like around it let's look at that oh i got [ __ ] up in this area why let's really watch the footage and then let's formulate a goal for tomorrow that has nothing to do with p l and we're gonna work on that was i too impulsive today we're gonna work on not being impulsive was i trading dirty levels well then we're not going to trade dirty levels tomorrow i'm going to keep relentlessly working on these goals because my statistics and review is showing that everybody wants to be a trader until they have to do trader work and trader work ain't [ __ ] easy it's tedious it sucks it does it's uncomfortable but that's how you get [ __ ] better and that is why there's such a high [ __ ] failure rate everybody's thinking about the [ __ ] p l from the very beginning you're eating the blue pills in the matrix you're staying in the matrix eat the [ __ ] red pill and see what trading really is it's about developing specific skills because you can't go from here to here without doing everything in here and getting good at those things and now you're going to have to spend time defining a trade with edge and when you do your review and you start stat tracking your [ __ ] you're using tags specific tags and playbooks tags you look at the stats at the end of the month and you need a high sample rate of stats to see what's working what's not working in your trading let me share some of my stats from this month so let me pull this up i'm not sure if i mentioned this video or not on friday i hit damn near my max drawdown so i consider i max drew down because the environment was really difficult to trade but i spent several hours studying it reviewing it in fact when i hit my max drawdown i switched the demo and i started trying to scalp and try to trade the environment so that way i could try to understand what was going on and this is very important i feel like a lot of traders who aren't comfortable with a specific environment they end up just not trading and i disagree with that because i feel a professional good trader should be able to handle themselves in almost any environment and they should be able to adapt and adjust the problem is people aren't willing to go back to demo to experiment people are not willing to go to demo to experiment in a condition that they're not comfortable with and and instead they're just gonna sit out and i hate to say this but not you're missing out opportunity when you [ __ ] do that [ __ ] you shouldn't just be sitting out you should you should be in there [ __ ] testing it and that's what i [ __ ] did i hit drawdown so let's go ahead and start testing [ __ ] do i need to run larger stops let's [ __ ] test it is there something going on within the price action yeah there was actually and what happened was i ended up spending all of yesterday re-watching a huge portion of that specific trading session and i really started to develop like i really started to see what happened because friday was very difficult and and this would be uh what what is it january 14th 2022 so if you remember that specific date and uh i wrote a massive document just talking about what's going on what i think's happening what i'm seeing looking at specific theories and then i did a video on it um it's not a public video by any means it's actually a private video and um i think i figured out what i need to do to adjust to be able to actually trade that type of [ __ ] environment instead i didn't just shut it down and leave and be done i switched the demo to learn how to [ __ ] deal with it looks like one of my cats is going up on the roof yep that would be womack sorry if the camera's shaking and you guys have not seen womack yet but um yeah so that's really important so the the it's only halfway through the month right now it's important that you try to trade exactly the same way throughout the entire month and trying to stay consistent um throughout the entire month is a lot more difficult uh because obviously emotions and [ __ ] get in the way so it's important that you stay i mean trying to trade consistently not being consistently profitable is pretty [ __ ] difficult uh to trade a specific setup in a consistent fashion because emotions get in the way and this is why it's important to do this [ __ ] on demo is because you need to be stat tracking and this is all about developing an actual setup with developing a setup with edge you need to be stat tracking and really monitoring these setups uh and try to be as consistent as possible so that way you get a very consistent sample size and we're only halfway through the month but these are what i'm seeing in my stats and they're actually kind of surprising i'm only going to go over two of them i'm sorry if the camera's shaking because womack's up there so um two things i'm testing trading clean levels versus dirty levels so what clean levels means is there's no other level above my entry so if i get in here i don't run the risk of the trade smacking a level above my entry or if i'm going short i don't run the risk of the trade smacking a level and coming back in if there's other levels there i call those dirty now if there's a bunch of levels behind it and there's nothing in the direction i'm going in i consider that clean so this month so far clean levels uh they make money so do dirty levels actually as well so between tracking those two stats i know that clean levels make money soda dirty but clean levels they win 2.5 more times than losing so i'm making 2.5 more times the money on clean levels than i do losing on them whereas on dirty levels i only make 1.6 times more than losing it's some weird math i did so that could be wrong so what that's telling me is maybe next month i need to just completely ignore dirty levels yeah they make money but they certainly don't perform as well now i also started to track pullbacks um versus when a level gets tested for the first time so i'll i'm tracking if the trade comes in and then pulls back on my entry how does that perform versus the first time we hit a level and then i immediately attempt to trade it well pullbacks also win 2.5 more times than they lose the first test when the trade comes in for the first time it loses four 4.0 times more than it wins so what that's telling me is start trading pullbacks and
don't worry about first test hits but here's the problem is first test hits are working better on a different type of setup so these are just general stats across all my setups um so what i need to do is look at the individual setups and see if the first tests are working better on a specific setup than the other and our pullbacks working better on this test and our pullbacks working better in high volume or medium volume environments so it's that's very important information and that's information that you need to gather as a new trader because with those stat those stats tell you a lot and i'm surprised i'm always surprised by those numbers certain setups i think i suck at i do really good in setups i think i'm really good at i suck at i'm always surprised and and the thing is even when you're consistent you need to continue to do this because you need to continue to refine your trading so that way you can start to scale up more size and these stats tell me exactly where i need to make adjustments i need is trade pullbacks but which setups but i need to trade pullback so now going into the next month i'm going to have to really want to start not trading anything but pullbacks and that might be hard because i have the habit of trading breakouts um so it's gonna have to be a goal of mine to actually start to wean out trading first tests so this is a constant develop developing cycle but this is how you find trades with setups and then i also i tag impulsive trades honestly if i stop being so impulsive and i'm getting a lot better at it um that will make a difference and i'm going to continue to track my impulsive trading because i want to it's like a game i want to see if i can make that the amount of money i'm losing off impulsive trading go down less and less and less each month that's a win so a lot of these stats and these numbers and [ __ ] and the reason it's important to review and do all this stuff at the end of the day tells you exactly what's going on in your trading and what you can do to refine stuff and it allows you to figure out if a setup has positive expectancy it allows you to see if a setup has edge and listen setup setups with edge can be handed to a trader on a silver plat platter but that doesn't mean they're going to be able to make it work because if you don't have your mental framework in check uh nothing's gonna work for you nothing is gonna work for you so that's the problem people think trade some trading courses suck and [ __ ] but you gotta understand the guy that's probably presenting it and don't get me wrong some of the stuff out there is [ __ ] but the guy that's presenting it well he has a [ __ ] load more experience in it and he understands nuancy [ __ ] that he's not simply not able to talk about right there's a feel to it uh there's like this crystal ball thing going on to where he has a feel for what might be happening with his system that you have not developed and that's another thing if you're brand new you don't have that feel that intuition for what's about to happen in the market the more and i've only been trading the es so i like to think i have a decent intuition with it because often there are times where i'm pretty [ __ ] good at accurately calling out a specific test or rotation doesn't mean i'm trading it by any means but i kind of know what the market's gonna do and if it fails what i'm thinking would happen if it ends up not doing what i think i'm like well then it could go here and potentially this could happen oh it is happening that way so if that's happening this way then i think this might happen let's nail it and there it goes and you can kind of see that when i'm reading the tape or whatever there's little things so it's jerking or it's dumping or it's pulling in real quickly those are little things and i can kind of guestimate what's about to happen in the next few seconds or we could tap this level and rotate so i'm going to start cutting the trade there and that intuition it takes years to build that and that right there is going to help make you a better trader that's skill development in a nutshell so i think with all of that being said um i want to touch on developing setups with edge i think that's a whole nother video but it takes time it takes a lot of time to develop a setup with edge and it's best to do it on demo don't do it on live money don't do it on micros don't experiment in combines if you're gonna do a combine know what you're [ __ ] doing know what you're [ __ ] doing you can build a setup with edge on demo and that will give you confidence so when you trade live money it's not as [ __ ] scary and it's not as emotional i mean you would think that's common [ __ ] sense but most people don't think that way you guys need to wake the [ __ ] up if i spend if i spent years doing all this weird [ __ ] and doing tick drills and all this stuff you guys aren't doing i pretty i'm getting pretty [ __ ] good at this i'm not a [ __ ] pro but i'm getting a [ __ ] i'm a [ __ ] load better than i used to be and i'm know what has gotten me to where i'm at i know the things that worked to get me to where i'm at and i'm simply sharing that with you because you can waste a [ __ ] load of time going from here to here without doing anything in here without if you're not sitting there trying to fix specific problems with specific solutions and actively trying to build awareness around it so that way you can stop doing the same stupid mistakes over and over and over and over because that's what happens when you get into trading you make the stupid mistakes over and over and over you don't know what to [ __ ] do about it because you're not doing anything about it and you're not trying to build awareness around it and try to meditate and try you got to do a lot and everybody wants to be a trader until they got to do trader work and most people are [ __ ] lazy and that is why the failure rate is so high or they or they just continuously think about the [ __ ] p l and they don't realize this is a high skill game and you need to develop skills to be able to even [ __ ] print consistent p l i think the failure rate is high because again a combination of laziness and a combination of people who simply are not winning the day by building out skills they're not winning the day by [ __ ] conquering the goal of impulsive trading they're not they're not winning the day by just trying to get better at things that have absolutely nothing to do with actual printing p l a lot of things you need to do to become a better trader has nothing to do with actually taking the [ __ ] trade a lot of things you need to do to get better as a trade you're in control of because when you trade the market you're not in control and there is an element of randomness to it but there is a lot of things you can [ __ ] control you can control reviewing the day you can control doing tick drills and cutting the trade when it doesn't work and just learn how to get better at it you can control journaling you can control stat tracking there's so much [ __ ] you're in control of that if you get really good at those little things that will make you a better trader we don't rise to our goals you don't rise to the goal of consistently profitable what you do is you bui
2022-01-22 07:57
