Weekly Forex Forecast (31/10/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Hey traders it's John Fortune here with this  week's weekly Forex forecast I hope everybody's   having a great weekend last week we had three  interest rate decisions and this week we have   another two including fomc on Wednesday now  the big thing is the dollar has been selling   off but it does not appear to be a top in the  dxy it does look like the dxy is heading back   to the highs of 11450 and possibly higher  okay so quick look at the economic calendar   as we usually do and the first thing to note  is all the PMI data that came out on Monday   recessionary recessionary below 50 below 50  below 50 all of this recessionary apart from   the French Services PMI and basically just  confirming Global slowdown and the incoming   Global recession that we're facing in the interest  rate decision Department we had the bank Canada   coming out raising interest rates but it was a  dovish raise so they raised less than expected   and they started to talk about the concerns  or their concerns over of a contraction the   economic growth because of interest rate hikes as  opposed to just being fixated on inflation and we   also saw the ECB raising rates and we also saw  the boj last week but we also had Advanced GDP   coming out of the US positive for the first  time although don't forget this is a lagging   piece of data and very often the market does the  opposite or discounts that although last week   especially considering we had the pce data at the  end of the week as well the markets were fairly   subdued we saw a bounce in the dollar however we  didn't really see much volatility from that and   that is leading me to believe this is now because  of fomc which is coming up next week on Wednesday   so if we jump ahead to next week you can see we  have the RBA coming out on the 1st of November   which is a Tuesday and it's important to note  that we're heading into a new month coming into   next week we do start the new month and I'm  going to go through what I think we're going   to see in the dollar into these interest rate  decisions and also for the rest of the month so   keep an eye out for the RBA on Tuesday because  if you are trading the Australian pairs you would   probably be better off waiting for this to pass  before getting involved with them and they're   unlikely to move leading into this piece of data  uh on Wednesday we have the all-important fomc   now this is really going to dominate what happens  in markets next week especially in Forex with the   dollar and I'm going to talk you through what I  think we're going to see in the dxy Leaning into   frmc I have two base case scenarios as to how I  think the dollar could behave leading into this   we are expecting a ray hike and BlackRock came out  and said that they expect the Federal Reserve to   strike a more dovish tone in this meeting well it  remains to be seen uh I certainly think the FED   are getting towards that point but don't forget  they haven't got federal funds rate above core   PC inflation data meaning that historically  whenever they fail to do that they fail to   control inflation so perhaps the Federal Reserve  are banking on this incoming Global recession   which they almost certainly induced now to crush  inflation as opposed to ramping up rate hikes   like volca did because you know volcker had a much  less indebted system so he could do that whereas   Jerome Powell cannot also on Thursday we have  an interest rate decision out of the UK so just   bear that in mind and finally we have non-farm  payrolls on Friday so quite a bit of data and   again it really just points to the fact that once  we get past this and we start to get into week two   three four of November this is when you'll start  to get opportunities generally coming back into   the markets a lot more and uh would be a better  trading condition in all likelihood okay so let's   look at the scorecards for the coming week and the  first thing to note is I've added two green lines   two red lines here just to denote the levels at  which these currencies actually form a bullish or   a bearish bias and you can see anything in between  these levels is actually just bullish to neutral   or bearish to neutral it's essentially neutral  it's not a strong bias or even a solid bias one   way or the other so the first thing to note is  that the scorecards are continuing to project   corrective markets however with fomc on Wednesday  this could be the Catalyst to start to break this   kind of sideways consolidation range in Market  condition that we've seen in the Forex Majors   that makes it more tricky and of course when  we come into the scorecards and we see multiple   currencies above two multiple currencies below  too this is when we get those really good trading   opportunities so the first thing to note is  especially heading into fomc may be a good idea to   actually just reduce your risk look for the best  opportunities the second thing to note is that   the JPY is for the second week in a row the best  opportunity to the short side and since there's   nothing really to the upside what we can do is  we can look at the Euro and the pound currencies   vis-a-vis the Japanese Yen but we can also look  towards the US dollar versus the Yen and also   even the Aussie the cad and potentially the New  Zealand as well but we really have to look at the   dollar pairs next week as news events so wait for  the news event to take place and then looking for   opportunities in the direction of those markets  once the frmc event takes place because remember   markets especially the dollar are unlikely to  do very much heading into fomc so outside of   the scorecards telling us that opportunities are  drying up we should look to restrict our trading   somewhat until opportunities start to come back  in abundance into the market aside from that we do   also see the Canadian dollar going to minus one so  again only bearish to neutral this is not a strong   bias but it is a signal here outside of everything  else which recently has been showing a bit of risk   on so New Zealand strengthening pound strength  and Euro strengthening dollar weakening but you   can see the dollar and the Euro are still on the  same side of the scorecards and this is again just   another sign that opportunities are drying up but  as I said with fomc on Wednesday that could very   well be the Catalyst and it's likely going to  be the Catalyst to break this kind of lethargy   in the Forex markets currently okay so let's  look at the individual currency starting with   the dollar and this is what's likely to dictate  Market Direction next week the dollar is still   in an over uptrend as it currently stands this  should just be considered an A B and a c and the   probabilities are still that we rally to new highs  and probably onto the 115.32 but as it currently   stands going into fomc we did have the sell-off  last week and what I think we're likely to see if   we drop down to the four hour chart here you can  see we do have this kind of Bounce in the dollar   but what I think we're going to see is either  one of two things either we go nowhere into   fomc on Wednesday in which case look for the  market to sell off into the 109.480 like this or   we do the opposite which is we come down we trade  into the 109.48 before fomc and if that happens I   would be looking for the market to bounce in the  opposite direction so those are the two outcomes   that I'm looking for fomc but either way what  I think we're going to see here in the dollar   is I think we are going to see one more move to  the downside into the 109.48 this actually will  

bring with it some risk on which would be you know  commodity currency strengthening it would see Safe   Haven assets selling off so as the dollar trades  into the 109.48 look for those moves to the upside   in Euro Yen look for that move to the upside in  pound Yen uh those kind of risk on setups are   likely to work quite well and then after we trade  into the 10948 I do believe that the next rally to   the upside into the highs over November and into  December possibly is the next move in the dollar   so I think the dollar is going to struggle to get  below 109.48 and it's going to be interesting keep   an eye on this level heading into frmc next week  because I think this could actually be the low of   this near-term correction in the dxy over the  next week or so next is the Euro now of course   just doing the opposite of what the Dollar's been  doing but you can see we've just been correcting   we are still oval in a downtrend we're below the  four-year breakout and we're below the seven year   Breakout and as it currently stands we should  just be viewing this as a correction and look   how Market opportunities have dried up as this has  just kind of corrected inversely with dollar which   has just kind of gone sideways and corrected  as well so going into next week I would not be   surprised to see the Euro pushing slightly higher  probably into fomc and then that could very well   be the Catalyst to send this lower down to the  0.9574 next is the power now ever since the pound   flash crashed we've just been correcting this  big sell-off here and I would not be surprised   to come out and take out this High very often you  see that with flash crashes they come all the way   back up and they retest the highs or lows we've  looked at this in previous videos with the Swiss   franc crash back in 2015 or rather I should  say Euro Swiss franc crash the Swiss franc   itself actually appreciated so heading into this  week I would be looking for further advances to   the upside in the pound and again we may see  the pound start to struggle once we run into   fomc because it does look like next week we're  probably going to see a near-term bounce in the   dollar and of course this will affect not just  the Euro but also pound to the downside however   as it currently stands the pound does look like  one of the better relative opportunities heading   into next week next is the Swiss franc now  the Swiss franc did bounce off the lows and   I highlighted this engulfing candle in last  week's video and I said the Swiss franc was   like to bounce and we did get to bounce but it's  still relatively underperformed the Aussie and the   New Zealand last week as those markets continue to  correct I'm adding these in again this week we're   going to revisit them it does look like we're set  further declines in those markets so if you did   want to get involved in the Frank pairs especially  with a plus one score it's not very bullish but   it's bullish to neutral relatively better than  some of the other markets and certainly in a   risk-off event if we see the dollar rallying hard  on fomc on Wednesday and you see risk off coming   into the markets that would also likely catalyze  Aussie Frank and New Zealand Frank to the downside   next is the Yen now despite the intervention I do  once again believe the yen is going to continue   down and this is probably the best opportunity  heading into next week Euro Yen pound Yen are   my two favorite opportunity cities and the yen  is really the only currency that we see in the   scorecards with a strong bullish or bearish bias  so I do think even if it's tricky trading next   week the Yen pairs are once again going to provide  the better place to look in terms of making money   next week any pullback in the Yen then is simply  viewed as an opportunity to further declines into   the lows and then on to the zero point zero zero  six five two next is the cad now the cad is an   oval downtrend and we did get a macro cell signal  minus one this week on the Canadian dollar however   bear in mind it still only bearish to neutral so  it's not a very strong sell signal it's just that   there isn't really anything else going on in the  scorecards outside of those Yen week signals so   any continued pullback in this market and if the  dxy is going to come down and it's going to retest   those lows as discussed potentially into fomc  I would not be surprised to the Canadian dollar   pushing higher same with the Aussie New Zealand  all of these commodity currencies as the dollar   trades into the lows but that is when I would be  looking for these markets start to reverse down to   the lows and onto the 0.7088 Aussie dollar again  we are corrected and I am looking for new lows  

and a move to the 0.61240 so as the dxy pushes a  bit lower as I suspect it will next week I would   not be surprised if we see the Aussie coming and  taking out the hides and that is where I'll start   to look further declines into the lows and onto  the 0.6124 and last but not least the New Zealand   dollar very similar setup to what we're looking at  in the Aussie the Canadian all of these commodity   currencies they're just correct and higher there's  no real momentum this is momentum this is momentum   this is momentum this is momentum to the downside  and you can see this is not really momentum here   this is just correction this is corrective so  again as the dollar sells off into that Kiev   support highlighted I would not be surprised to  see this pushing a bit higher but coming into   fomc don't be surprised to see this start to  reverse down to the lows and onto the 0.5466   whether this happens before fomc or just after  remains to be seen but I do believe this is the   next move down in the New Zealand dollar okay so  let's look at the markets themselves starting with   crude oil now I did tell you a few videos about  crude oil has moved into the neutral part of the   commodity scorecards and it doesn't look like a  fantastic opportunity I still don't think it's   a fantastic opportunity I haven't been trading  crude oil but I do think we come up and test the   highs over here of the 9375 so if you are trading  crude or any pullback next week and you can see   this would actually sit right at this trend line  for you to draw this on any pullback in crude   oil would be viewed as an opportunity to look for  Longs into the 93.75 next is Euro Yen now Euro Yen  

has been very very volatile here because of the  boj intervention however you can see pretty much   like over here we had the intervention we came  down a bit and then we started to reverse and we   are seeing the same here and we've just kind of  started to move sideways if you look over here   at these highs we're right here there's kind of  a consolidation here so any pullback in Euro Yen   next week is viewed as an opportunity to look for  Longs into the 149.77 next is pound Yen now take   what we just looked at in Euro Yen where we said  the Euro Yen was kind of consolidating after the   intervention and look what's happened in pound  Yen you could look at this almost as the future   potentially of Euro Yen starting to break out of  that consolidation and making its way higher so   any pullback in this market next week is viewed as  an opportunity to look for Longs Into the 174.86   Now very often when you have the dollar which  is kind of ranging or correcting or you have a   big news event you can split the week into two  parts you have risk on which is where commodity   currencies uh risky assets equities for example  Commodities tend to do well on rally and risk off   where Safe Haven assets tend to do well and rally  like the dollar like the Yen like the Frank and   you tendency commodity selling off utensil Equity  selling off so what you'll find is these first   three markets are all risk on and you would expect  these to do especially well if we start to see the   dollar selling off into the lows next week once we  get fomc however if you have the dollar rallying   based on what said on frmc and you start to see  risk off because if the dollar rallies you're   probably going to see equity sell-off and you're  also likely going to commodity sell-off because   they're priced in dollars so going into the start  of the week those three risk on currency should do   well if they've starts to roll over but if you  get that rally in the Dollar on frmc and you   start to see risk off coming in you could look to  Pivot towards some of these dollar plays down here   and also Aussie Frank and New Zealand Frank to the  downside are also risk off setup so you can split   these markets into two oil to the upside you're  again to the upside pound the end to the upside   risk on but if you get a reversal on frmc start  to look at either the dollar pairs Aussie Franks   and downside New Zealand Frank to the downside or  even eurocad pound CAD to the upside because they   are all risk off currency pairs next to the cad  pairs now not highlighted in Gold because the Yen   pairs are the only ones giving us a strong sell  signal whereas the cad pairs are just a kind of   weak sell signal it's minus one Barrister neutral  however any pullback in this market is viewed as   an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts  up to the 1.3715 next is pound cab you can   see we're trending to the upside what I would  like to see is because we don't really have any   momentum we're just kind of testing the height  any correction like this is going to be a good   opportunity perhaps even into fomc to start to  look for bullish breakouts and if we start to   break higher I'm going to be looking up towards  the 1.5955 and always remember guys we're looking  

at a number of opportunities here but you only  really need to catch one or two good trades in a   week in order to do well you do not have to catch  every single move okay so moving on to the dollar   Pairs and they're highlighted in blue because of  that fomc so these are news event trades next week   and what I think we're going to see next week is  very often you see markets correct into the news   events especially interest rate decisions and then  start to move what I'm looking for then next week   is if we can start to pull back in Aussie dollar  re-test the highs and possibly even test the six   five four hundred if we start to do that into fomc  and at the same time the dollar sells off into its   lows I'm going to be looking for potential  reversal in these markets dollar strength to   come in and if that happens if we start to see  the bounce I'm going to be looking to trade the   follow through so any pullback after that down  to the previous lows and onto the 0.6124 next   is New Zealand dollar again I would not really  be interested in buying New Zealand dollar even   if we start to see the dollar selling off on frmc  I'd rather pivot to some better risk on currencies   or markets which are in the direction of the  trend I.E Euro Yen to the upside would benefit   from a weaker dollar pound the end would benefit  to the upside from a weaker dollar you would see   Bitcoin benefiting to the upside and this is a  market we're going to look at in the event that   the dollar does sell off in fomc but my base case  is for a new high to be made just as we looked at   in the quality currencies in and of themselves and  and then I'm going to look for this to potentially   double top like this on fomc and once we get the  sell-off any pullback is viewed as an opportunity   to trade the follow through down to the lows and  onto 0.5469 US dollar CAD testing the low of the   1.3503 I do think we come down probably retest  this again into frmc and I'm going to be looking  

for this to bounce on fomc any pullback like this  after that is going to be viewed as a breakout   and the start of the next leg up into the 1.3970  it's unlikely to do some of these moves all in one   week but over the next couple of weeks certainly  next month I'll be looking at this move into the   highs in US dollar CAD next is the Euro again  I do think the Euro probably comes up for one   more high and this forms a big a b c we are below  the major seven year breakout and I'm looking for   this to correct into the highs in frmc and if we  start to reverse on frmc we get a bigger sell-off   because the market just discounts maybe we do get  a more dovish fed but the market just discounts it   because you've already got BlackRock for example  coming out and telling everyone so it's very well   known and the market does the opposite as what  people expect this happens all the time so if the   Market discounts this and you get a big rally in  the dollar after potentially making a new double   top let's say any pullback in this market from  Wednesday onwards is going to be viewed as an   opportunity to look for shorts into the lows  and onto the zero points nine four one three   I have been saying all year the dollar has not  topped we should be expecting High highs and I   am once again beating the table on that and saying  yes the highest probability play even if we come   up a bit higher in the short term the highest  probability is that we're coming back down to   the lows in euro dollar and the final dollar pair  here we're looking at is US dollar Yen now all of   these are based on US dollar strength so any  pullback in this market if we come down maybe   test the lows once again and then reverse on frmc  we get some dollar strength coming in that's going   to be the opportunity to look further advances  back to the 151.64 so I reiterate all of these   are based on strength from fomc in the dollar  and if we do not get that then this should boost   Euro Yen pound Yen further still crude oil to the  upside and even Bitcoin to the upside of my four   risk on markets that I'm looking at next week if  we get dollar weakness from frmc and finally we're   going to look at the Frank pairs now Aussie Frank  to the downside New Zealand Frank to the downside   are risk off plays because they are commodity  currencies underperforming a safe haven asset   like the Swiss franc so just as when the dollar  sold off we saw Aussie Frank and New Zealand Frank   correcting a little bit higher so too if the  dollar bottoms and bounces on fomc you should   expect these to break lower like this as well so  if we get that risk off if we get the dollar rally   on frmc look for these to break lower and then any  pullback is viewed as the opportunity to look for   shorts into the 0.6208 and the final Forex pair  here we're looking at is New Zealand Frank now  

look at this zoomed out a bit because this move  here is what is currently being corrected this is   just simply a bigger correction of this down move  and because this was such a big down move we're   having a much larger correction however if we get  on fomc the dollar bouncing from the lows in fact   comes down like this we're looking at in the  dollar and then we get that double bottom we   get the rally because the Market discounts  for example a slightly more dovish fed then   you should expect Aussie Frank New Zealand Frank  to sell off as well just as the opposite of what   happened they started to correct higher when  the dollar sold off so any rally in the dollar   next week from fomc look for a sell-off in these  markets and then any pullback is the opportunity   to look for shorts into the previous low at 0.5512  okay so wrapping up with gold silver and Bitcoin   starting with the gold silver ratio we are moving  sideways consolidating in the gold silver ratio so   I do not favor gold over silver or silver over  gold as it currently stands either to the long   side or the short side I have no bias outright  on one of these over the other next is gold now   out of gold and silver I do have a bearish bias on  these markets because I do not believe we've seen   the top just yet in the dxy and any pullback next  week especially if we retest the 1676.86 which is   the major Breakout level highlighting previous  videos I would be looking for potentially after   a pharmacy or on fomc if the dollar rallies  for these markets to sell off back down to   their lows first and foremost and then on to the  15 75.72 again if you get a sell-off from fomc  

in the dollar then obviously you'll probably see  Gold Spike higher and this would not be assured   so really this is again one of those news events  almost where you want to see the dollar rallying   off fomc in order to get involved with this to  the downside next is silver and exactly the same   applies to Silver if we continue to pull back  in silver and then we get a rally in the dollar   from fomc you should see silver breaking down  like this and that would be your opportunity to   come and have a look to see if you can find good  opportunities to the downside down to the lows   first and foremost in silver and then on to the  16.96 again if you get a sell-off in the Dollar   on FMC this is not going to be a good short next  week and last but not least we have Bitcoin now   Bitcoin did break higher and it does look like  Bitcoin could be coming to the 22.6620 so this   is risk on if Bitcoin is going to go higher this  is risk on and what this means is it sets us up   quite nicely with these three markets to trade  fomc potentially in two ways depending on what   happens if you get dollar strength from iPhone C I  would favor gold and silver to the downside if you   get dollar weakness and you see risk on coming  in this is likely to lift risk assets include   equities including Commodities and also Bitcoin  so in that scenario if you get a sell-off in the   dollar from fomc you can be reactive as opposed  to being predictive and come and have a look for   Bitcoin to break higher and I will be looking up  towards the next care of resistance 22 666.20 so   that is it for me for this week guys as always I  hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please   let me know by liking sharing and subscribing  a big thing to everybody who does that on a   regular basis and a big thank you to everybody  who has subscribed to the channel so far if you   enjoyed today's video why not consider joining  us during the week where I share my charts as   well as the setups that I'm personally looking  at trading with members on a daily basis and   we also published the scorecards for over 75  markets in different asset classes including   Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find  out more about the benefits of GMT membership   by clicking the links in the description below  and also in the pin comment below so thanks for   watching the only thing left to say is take  care and don't get straight safely foreign

2022-10-31 16:46

Other news