Weekly Forex Forecast (28/11/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
foreign [Music] ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having a great weekend it isn't on fun payrolls week next week so bear that in mind when we go and have a quick look at the calendar that is the key event heading into next week and a quick note say that next weekend there will not be a weekly for its forecast as I am away however I will be resuming once again the following weekend on the 10th of December okay so a brief look at the economic calendar we do have some important events coming out next week consumer confidence and GDP out to Canada Etc but there's nothing we really need to plan our trades around for power will be speaking next week and also we have the core PC price index coming out which is Pal's preferred measure of inflation alongside the manufacturing PMI so there is a number of dates coming out which can move the markets however it is non-farm payrolls on Friday which is likely to be the headline event next week and although this is a lagging piece of data employment data is not a leading economic signal very often you can see markets especially the dollar being corrective leading into non-farm payrolls and I do think next week we could see a continued correction in the dollar okay so if we look at the scores for the coming week you can see last week it was the Swiss franc to the upside and the Canadian dollar to the downside that was highlighted as the best opportunities and CAD shorts last week were by Far and Away the best Forex trades we had a big sell-off in the Canadian dollar as crude oil also sold off and paired against the Swiss franc that was a great trade last week to the downside and also against the Yen for example and also eurocad we looked at to the upside last week was also a good move in the Forex markets coming into this week you can see first and foremost the markets are again choppy they are range bound opportunities have dried up and this was after the big move we got off of the CPI out of the dollar a lot of markets rallied we saw the Swiss franc which we've looked at in previous videos the Japanese Yen big rallies in those markets as well on the U.S CPI data and now the markets have been correcting since then so that's the first takeaway here don't take too much risk in the Forex markets because opportunities are somewhat drying up after that big CPI data but the Canadian dollar to the downside is still highlighted as the best opportunity and although there are no outright bullish which is a score above two currencies it is the Euro and the Japanese Yen also that I think are the better markets going into next week the Swiss franc is still relatively the strongest currency here on a one-month forward-looking basis however you can see it is down on the week and very often this is what you see when the market is about to correct so I am still interested in Swiss franc Longs we'll look at Aussie Frank to the downside CAD Frank to the downside but just bear in mind we may need near-term correction next week in those Frank pairs before they start to move okay so if we look at the individual currencies first before moving on to the market starting with the dollar you can see this was the big three standard deviation move that I was high writing on Twitter and also in previous videos that when you have these moves the markets tend to correct to consolidate after that and we did see a consolidation then we sold off and we started to pause down here now in last week's video I covered the bigger picture in the dollar we're not going to go to that again today but if you are interested in the bigger picture here go and have a look at last week's weekly Forex broadcast video because we cover in detail the bigger picture how I think the dxys likely to play out however heading into next week especially since we have non-farm payrolls and the dollar itself tends to correct in non-farm payrolls week I do think what we're likely to see here is perhaps a slight pause on Monday and I would not be surprised at all to be coming back retesting this high up here for an a b and a c and this basically implies near-term dollar strength and therefore likely some risk off coming into the markets next week that would be equities to the downside Commodities to the downside and in terms of the Forex markets if we do see the dxy correcting higher or pushing higher that will also if it brings risk off will benefit the Japanese Yen and also currencies like the Euro but against the commodity currencies like the Aussie pound Aussie to the upside Etc now what is also possible next week is say we would come down on the Monday and test the low I still believe downside there is going to be somewhat limited and that would actually therefore also in my opinion lead to a bounce to the upside in the dollar so I do think we're coming back to the 108.0 in the dollar in the near term whether we test those first or whether we just correct for an ABC remains to be seen but I do think that's going to bring some risk off into markets next week okay so if we look at the Euro on the daily chart you can see the downtrend is still clear and as it currently stands this should be viewed as a larger pullback why because we've only come back in the euro to retest The Seven Year breakout of the 1.03750 and above that we have the four-year breakout which we've been looking at pretty much all year we've been following these levels now in the Euro you can see we have big momentum and we pulled back what I think we're going to see I think we're going to start to see the Euro consolidating around this level and if the dollar does which is currently doing this if it does come back for a deep correction in that c wave you're likely to see the Euro pulling back and once it does this I do think the next move up is the previous high and this as I said in last week's video is where I think we could see a double top in the Euro and in the dollar that would be the double bottom in the dollar from the potential fourth wave corrective area we looked at this in last week's video in the bigger picture and that's when I think we could see the double bottom for the next rally up in the dollar and also in the Euro that would be the double top for the next leg down in the Euro so as you can see if we come down first test the lows and then rally to the highs especially with non-farm payrolls we could be in for a kind of ranging week and some near-term consolidation in the Euro the dollar Etc next is the pound now the pound is also still in an overall downtrend you can see these are the larger waves to the downside and this leg was so sharp and so Steep and we finished here with the flash crash that we basically had a much deeper sharper correction and as this correction continues to the upside you can see we're testing into the highs we're starting to lack momentum I again would not be surprised to see this come down a little bit and then up a little bit higher possibly even testing the 1.2295 and that to coincide with the dollar doing an ABC
and then coming down testing the low like this and that is where I think we could start to roll over a test of the previous high in this oval downtrend and then start to roll over to the downside even if you were looking at a bigger reversal in the pound this is what you would expect to see because very often it rejects from this area and then you get a right shoulder and then you get the reversal so whether this is going to continue for the next leg down to the lows which I think is the higher probability or if we start to form a right shoulder either way I think we start to reject from the 1.2295 in the pound next is the Swiss franc now the scorecards did give us a signal to say that the Swiss franc is likely to correct somewhat and this was when it went from three to two this week we went down minus one in the Frank score and very often that is what precedes that's forwards looking for Corrections in markets so I would not be surprised to see this come down a little bit lower this I believe feeds in with the dollar Index doing that ABC D and then I think we're going to come up we're going to flag this would be an ABC ball flag in the Swiss franc and we're going to take out the highs here now I did discuss in last week's video why this is very significant because we have huge momentum and if we take out the high this is actually where a new trend is born in the Swiss franc and this would be viewed as an inverse Head and Shoulders over here so potentially quite a significant move to the upside coming in the Swiss franc but especially with non-farm perils I think we see a near-term correction consolidation first next is the Yen also bullish on the Yen but again you can see it does look like we're going to come down and correct somewhat in the end so maybe a little bit of near-term weakness however the overall picture is for consolidation and a break higher and again in the Japanese Yen this would be the Inception of a new trend on a break Above This High over here this would be a confirmed inverse head and shoulders and just like the Swiss franc this is indicative of quite a large risk-off move were this to materialize in the near term again I think we see a consolidation in the Japanese Yen next is the cad now if you look at the cad the cad was a really good short highlighted by the scorecards last week in fact it was highlighted as the best Market to the downside however you can see one two three four five we pretty much finished the week where we started the reason that the Canadian dollar shorts worked so well was because relative to the other currencies it underperformed so we could come up a little bit higher next week especially if the dollar starts to correct and these markets correct maybe we form a double top up in this area for the next leg down you can see this is a Big Bear Flag as it currently stands and we are approaching the underside of this breakout over here so I would not be surprised to see this retest in the highs once again however as the dollar comes down test the lows I do think that's when we get that double bottom in the dollar and I think that's when we start the next leg down in the cad Aussie dollar very similar to what we just looked at in the cad this is the previous leg down in the bigger picture and as it currently stands we are in a bear Market rally a karate action so I would be anticipating this to come up test the highs and possibly the 0.68570 the question is do we come down for an a b and a c first and then test the highs which is what I think we're likely to see as the dollar does this or do we actually test the highs first early on in the week in which case if we do test the highs first early on in the week if we come up like this on Monday and Tuesday and the dollar instead of doing an ABC actually test the lows on Monday Tuesday then we're already in that stage where we could see the next rally up and perhaps perhaps that is what it does it takes out the high tags are 0.68570 and then on non-farm payrolls on Friday if we get a better than expected jobs number we could see this selling off and that could be the Catalyst to form the double top in the Aussie dollar and also the double bottom which I've been discussing in the dxy so I think a lot is going to depend on that job's number next week and I wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar correcting or testing the lows into that and then potentially reversing next is the New Zealand dollar we came up and took out the 0.6228 last week again we should be treating this as a bear Market rally here is the previous leg down and although this is sharp and deep it is not yet a reversal and I am looking for the New Zealand dollar to double top or reverse in this area somewhere as the dxy trades into the low and into that fourth wave area we looked at in the bigger picture last week as that happens I'm expecting the New Zealand dollar to start to roll over whether we double top or we form Head and Shoulders who really cares if we start to reverse in this area I do believe the next leg down takes us to the 0.54660. so again perhaps we consolidate into non-farm payrolls and that provides the Catalyst if we get a good jobs number for the next leg down in New Zealand dollar as the dxy rallies okay so let's look at the markets themselves starting with crude oil crude oil has been a market that have been highlighting to the downside we've had some fantastic opportunities to the downside in crude oil and last week we sold off again so any pullback in this market once again is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for shorts into the 74.23 next is eurocad now these
markets highlighted in Gold are the markets that I think present the best opportunities next week but just bear in mind the scorecards are showing us there aren't too many Fantastic opportunities because a lot of the markets are failing to score two or more or minus two and less so just bear that in mind when you're trading next week it's not a great week especially with non-farm payrolls to take lots and lots of risk and we may see the markets correcting until non-farm payrolls and then we start to move last week eurocad was a market highlighted to the upside to look out for and we did take out the 1.3890 head into this week I do still favor long positions in eurocad we're quite close to the Target so what I would like to see is any pullback in this market is once again viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals into the 1.3976 and if we trade into this level and then reverse I would be looking up towards Target two at the 1.4287 next
is cadient cadion was consolidating last week and I highlighted this as a market to look for further declines we did have a really nice sell-off and we started this kind of Bear Flag so any correction is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts down to next year of support at the 101.76 next is pound CAD big breakout to the upside in this market you can see we kind of have this sort of an ace ended triangle pattern then we get the break with momentum and now we're starting to consolidate so what I'd like to see here is a deeper pullback any deeper pullback is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals I'm going to be looking into the 1.6332 and the final CAD pair is CAD Frank now not highlighted in Gold because the Swiss franc has gone from three to two so it's showing near-term consolidation so I favor the other markets here but what I'd like to see is we did take out the target to the downside at 0.70610 and cap rank was highlighted as the best short and this did pay nicely last week heading into this week any pullback in this market and again if we're going to get the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc correcting as the Swiss franc corrects I wouldn't be surprised to see it even come back and retest this High over here and any pullback towards this era is viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the 0.6993 so next week the cab pairs are my number one Forex
opportunities and also crude oil to the downside I do think they represent the best opportunities heading into next week after that I am looking at Australian Dollar short positions you can see here we are starting to form a potential right shoulder in Euro Aussie what I'd be looking for next week then because we are coming down we might come a bit lower but if we can reverse and get some momentum to the upside look for a break higher and that will be the opportunity to start to look for bullish setups into the one point five seven zero two again just bear in mind the Australian dollar is not super weak it's actually only bearish to neutral but after the Canadian dollar it is the next best short next is Aussie Yen now Aussie yen is a market that I like to the downside in last week's video we looked at the major Head and Shoulders forming in the bigger picture in Aussie Yen but recently it's just Consolidated and in fact you can see it coiling and coiling getting Tighter and Tighter so perhaps we come up test these highs maybe even test this High next week but any pullback back in this market is still only viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals I'm going to be looking down towards the next care of support to the downside at the 90.53 and again in last week's video I highlighted the break of this is in fact the break of a right shoulder in the head and shoulders here if we zoom out and the final Aussie pair is pound Aussie now you can see we've started to break out this is actually a double bottom here we came up and you can see tested the load test the load then we broke this is a confirmed double bottom in an overall bull market and this is a big bullish consolidation down here this is where we double bottom so any pullback in this area is viewed next week as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals into the previous height the 1.8190 and finally we have the dollar pairs now I do think especially with non-farm payrolls the dollar pairs continue to correct and we're looking at this in the daily chart just to get a better understanding of what's going on in the dollar pairs I would not be surprised to see euro dollar for example and at the moment it's just crisscrossing the seven year breakout but I would not be surprised to see this do one of two things either take out the high before Friday and then reverse to the downside with a double top on non-farm payrolls or if we come down and take out the low into Friday I would not be surprised to see non-farm payrolls reverse it from the low into the high and then we could be looking at a double top heading into December so patients required on the dollar pairs because of non-farm payrolls next week and one thing I will also be looking for because I do believe this could be a near-term double top in the the Euro I am looking for that potential setup where we trade into this before non-farm payrolls and then confirm the double top on a strong jobs number so keep an eye out for that next week next is US dollar Franc now I think you can see clearer here because of the momentum and the correction this kind of ABC pattern we could be seeing in the dollar into non-farm payrolls you can see the pullback and I think we could probably see this coming back up and testing the high here and then you get that reversal to the downside taking out the low so that's what I'm looking at potentially in US dollar Swiss franc next week again if that's the case and that does materialize we move up into this area test this high and then we roll over that of course in euro dollar would be and ABC and then a test of the however in this area so again that is what I think we could be seeing and that is also confirming what we're looking at in the dxy which is currently like this that's why I do think after that three standard deviation moved down we could just have a bigger correction ABC into non-farm payrolls either way once again I do think non-farm payrolls next week will dictate the next move in the dollar and the final dollar pair here is New Zealand dollar and you can see in New Zealand dollar again we are still in an overall downtrend we are still making lower lows and lower highs and this should be viewed as a bear Market rally so any pullback in New Zealand dollar I would not be surprised to see this coming down lower if the dollar does start to consolidate higher into non-farm payrolls and then rallying for a double top I do think we're coming close especially as this is the previous High whether we come up and test the previous high or we fail to test the previous High which of course would just simply be confirming the downtrend a lower high essentially I do think we're quite close now to reversal to the downside and I do think the New Zealand dollar comes down to the 0.54 700 in the near future again a lot will depend on that NFP number next week okay so wrapping up the video with gold silver and Bitcoin on the daily chart once again to look at the bigger picture here you can see we are starting to make our way down after this sell-off to the downside and a consolidation down to the 7j62 in the gold silver ratio and that's why I do favor silver long positions or rather I favor silver to the upside versus gold heading into next week starting with gold then what I think we're going to see next week in gold is I do think we're going to pull down perhaps test the lows and I think that coincides with the dxy doing this and if that's the case then as the dxy does come back down to the lows I think gold comes back up to the highs and likely onto the 1807.16 so look out for this move in Gold the game with non-farm payrolls we might just kind of be
corrective next week but that's what I'm looking for next in Gold next is silver silver all also pulling back after a big momentum move and again I think we've probably come down test the lows and we have this a b and a c and that likely coincides with that bigger correction I was looking at in the dxy then as we test the lows in the dollar this is my base case we test the highs maybe and likely testing the 22.49 as the next Target and then as the dollar reverses and if we get a double bottom in the dollar that coincides with the double top in silver and of course the next leg down in silver near term however I do think we have a little bit more upside left in this market and I do favor silver to the upside over gold based on what we're looking at in the gold silver ratio and last but not least we have Bitcoin now Bitcoin has become much harder to trade because it's just been consolidating very very tightly recently we did have a big sell-off but again after a big sell-off look how tight this has got you get another consolidation correction so I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin pulling back deeper because that's what happens after very very steep sell-offs like this so any pullback in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts once again into the 14 858.30 however I don't think Bitcoin is a fantastic market for next week so that is it for me for this week guys as always I hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thank to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far if you enjoyed today's video why not consider joining us during the week where I share my charts as well as the setups that I'm personally looking at trading with members on a daily basis and we also published the scorecards for over 75 markets in different asset classes including Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find out more about the benefits of GMT membership by clicking the links in the description below and also in the pinned comment below so thanks for watching the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget straight safely [Music] thank you
2022-11-29 23:40