Weekly Forex Forecast (28/11/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

foreign [Music] ERS it's John Fortune here with  this week's weekly Forex forecast I hope you're   having a great weekend it isn't on fun payrolls  week next week so bear that in mind when we go   and have a quick look at the calendar that is the  key event heading into next week and a quick note   say that next weekend there will not be a weekly  for its forecast as I am away however I will be   resuming once again the following weekend on  the 10th of December okay so a brief look at   the economic calendar we do have some important  events coming out next week consumer confidence   and GDP out to Canada Etc but there's nothing  we really need to plan our trades around for   power will be speaking next week and also we have  the core PC price index coming out which is Pal's   preferred measure of inflation alongside the  manufacturing PMI so there is a number of dates   coming out which can move the markets however it  is non-farm payrolls on Friday which is likely to   be the headline event next week and although  this is a lagging piece of data employment   data is not a leading economic signal very often  you can see markets especially the dollar being   corrective leading into non-farm payrolls and  I do think next week we could see a continued   correction in the dollar okay so if we look  at the scores for the coming week you can see   last week it was the Swiss franc to the upside  and the Canadian dollar to the downside that   was highlighted as the best opportunities and  CAD shorts last week were by Far and Away the   best Forex trades we had a big sell-off in the  Canadian dollar as crude oil also sold off and   paired against the Swiss franc that was a great  trade last week to the downside and also against   the Yen for example and also eurocad we looked  at to the upside last week was also a good move   in the Forex markets coming into this week you  can see first and foremost the markets are again   choppy they are range bound opportunities have  dried up and this was after the big move we got   off of the CPI out of the dollar a lot of markets  rallied we saw the Swiss franc which we've looked   at in previous videos the Japanese Yen big rallies  in those markets as well on the U.S CPI data and   now the markets have been correcting since then so  that's the first takeaway here don't take too much   risk in the Forex markets because opportunities  are somewhat drying up after that big CPI data   but the Canadian dollar to the downside is still  highlighted as the best opportunity and although   there are no outright bullish which is a score  above two currencies it is the Euro and the   Japanese Yen also that I think are the better  markets going into next week the Swiss franc is   still relatively the strongest currency here on  a one-month forward-looking basis however you can   see it is down on the week and very often this is  what you see when the market is about to correct   so I am still interested in Swiss franc Longs  we'll look at Aussie Frank to the downside CAD   Frank to the downside but just bear in mind we may  need near-term correction next week in those Frank   pairs before they start to move okay so if we look  at the individual currencies first before moving   on to the market starting with the dollar you can  see this was the big three standard deviation move   that I was high writing on Twitter and also  in previous videos that when you have these   moves the markets tend to correct to consolidate  after that and we did see a consolidation then we   sold off and we started to pause down here now in  last week's video I covered the bigger picture in   the dollar we're not going to go to that again  today but if you are interested in the bigger   picture here go and have a look at last week's  weekly Forex broadcast video because we cover   in detail the bigger picture how I think the dxys  likely to play out however heading into next week   especially since we have non-farm payrolls and  the dollar itself tends to correct in non-farm   payrolls week I do think what we're likely to  see here is perhaps a slight pause on Monday   and I would not be surprised at all to be coming  back retesting this high up here for an a b and   a c and this basically implies near-term dollar  strength and therefore likely some risk off coming   into the markets next week that would be equities  to the downside Commodities to the downside and   in terms of the Forex markets if we do see the  dxy correcting higher or pushing higher that   will also if it brings risk off will benefit  the Japanese Yen and also currencies like the   Euro but against the commodity currencies  like the Aussie pound Aussie to the upside   Etc now what is also possible next week is say  we would come down on the Monday and test the   low I still believe downside there is going to be  somewhat limited and that would actually therefore   also in my opinion lead to a bounce to the upside  in the dollar so I do think we're coming back to   the 108.0 in the dollar in the near term whether  we test those first or whether we just correct for   an ABC remains to be seen but I do think that's  going to bring some risk off into markets next   week okay so if we look at the Euro on the daily  chart you can see the downtrend is still clear and   as it currently stands this should be viewed as a  larger pullback why because we've only come back   in the euro to retest The Seven Year breakout of  the 1.03750 and above that we have the four-year   breakout which we've been looking at pretty much  all year we've been following these levels now   in the Euro you can see we have big momentum  and we pulled back what I think we're going   to see I think we're going to start to see the  Euro consolidating around this level and if the   dollar does which is currently doing this if it  does come back for a deep correction in that c   wave you're likely to see the Euro pulling back  and once it does this I do think the next move   up is the previous high and this as I said in  last week's video is where I think we could see   a double top in the Euro and in the dollar that  would be the double bottom in the dollar from   the potential fourth wave corrective area we  looked at this in last week's video in the   bigger picture and that's when I think we could  see the double bottom for the next rally up in   the dollar and also in the Euro that would be  the double top for the next leg down in the Euro   so as you can see if we come down first test the  lows and then rally to the highs especially with   non-farm payrolls we could be in for a kind of  ranging week and some near-term consolidation   in the Euro the dollar Etc next is the pound now  the pound is also still in an overall downtrend   you can see these are the larger waves to the  downside and this leg was so sharp and so Steep   and we finished here with the flash crash that we  basically had a much deeper sharper correction and   as this correction continues to the upside you can  see we're testing into the highs we're starting to   lack momentum I again would not be surprised to  see this come down a little bit and then up a   little bit higher possibly even testing the 1.2295  and that to coincide with the dollar doing an ABC  

and then coming down testing the low like this and  that is where I think we could start to roll over   a test of the previous high in this oval downtrend  and then start to roll over to the downside even   if you were looking at a bigger reversal in the  pound this is what you would expect to see because   very often it rejects from this area and then  you get a right shoulder and then you get the   reversal so whether this is going to continue for  the next leg down to the lows which I think is the   higher probability or if we start to form a right  shoulder either way I think we start to reject   from the 1.2295 in the pound next is the Swiss  franc now the scorecards did give us a signal   to say that the Swiss franc is likely to correct  somewhat and this was when it went from three to   two this week we went down minus one in the Frank  score and very often that is what precedes that's   forwards looking for Corrections in markets  so I would not be surprised to see this come   down a little bit lower this I believe feeds in  with the dollar Index doing that ABC D and then   I think we're going to come up we're going to flag  this would be an ABC ball flag in the Swiss franc   and we're going to take out the highs here now I  did discuss in last week's video why this is very   significant because we have huge momentum and if  we take out the high this is actually where a new   trend is born in the Swiss franc and this would be  viewed as an inverse Head and Shoulders over here   so potentially quite a significant move to the  upside coming in the Swiss franc but especially   with non-farm perils I think we see a near-term  correction consolidation first next is the Yen   also bullish on the Yen but again you can see  it does look like we're going to come down and   correct somewhat in the end so maybe a little bit  of near-term weakness however the overall picture   is for consolidation and a break higher and again  in the Japanese Yen this would be the Inception   of a new trend on a break Above This High over  here this would be a confirmed inverse head and   shoulders and just like the Swiss franc this is  indicative of quite a large risk-off move were   this to materialize in the near term again I think  we see a consolidation in the Japanese Yen next is   the cad now if you look at the cad the cad was a  really good short highlighted by the scorecards   last week in fact it was highlighted as the best  Market to the downside however you can see one   two three four five we pretty much finished  the week where we started the reason that the   Canadian dollar shorts worked so well was because  relative to the other currencies it underperformed   so we could come up a little bit higher next week  especially if the dollar starts to correct and   these markets correct maybe we form a double top  up in this area for the next leg down you can see   this is a Big Bear Flag as it currently stands and  we are approaching the underside of this breakout   over here so I would not be surprised to see this  retest in the highs once again however as the   dollar comes down test the lows I do think that's  when we get that double bottom in the dollar and   I think that's when we start the next leg down in  the cad Aussie dollar very similar to what we just   looked at in the cad this is the previous leg down  in the bigger picture and as it currently stands   we are in a bear Market rally a karate action  so I would be anticipating this to come up test   the highs and possibly the 0.68570 the question  is do we come down for an a b and a c first and   then test the highs which is what I think we're  likely to see as the dollar does this or do we   actually test the highs first early on in the week  in which case if we do test the highs first early   on in the week if we come up like this on Monday  and Tuesday and the dollar instead of doing an ABC   actually test the lows on Monday Tuesday then  we're already in that stage where we could see   the next rally up and perhaps perhaps that is what  it does it takes out the high tags are 0.68570 and   then on non-farm payrolls on Friday if we get a  better than expected jobs number we could see this   selling off and that could be the Catalyst to form  the double top in the Aussie dollar and also the   double bottom which I've been discussing in the  dxy so I think a lot is going to depend on that   job's number next week and I wouldn't be surprised  to see the dollar correcting or testing the lows   into that and then potentially reversing next is  the New Zealand dollar we came up and took out   the 0.6228 last week again we should be treating  this as a bear Market rally here is the previous   leg down and although this is sharp and deep it  is not yet a reversal and I am looking for the   New Zealand dollar to double top or reverse in  this area somewhere as the dxy trades into the   low and into that fourth wave area we looked at in  the bigger picture last week as that happens I'm   expecting the New Zealand dollar to start to roll  over whether we double top or we form Head and   Shoulders who really cares if we start to reverse  in this area I do believe the next leg down takes   us to the 0.54660. so again perhaps we consolidate  into non-farm payrolls and that provides the   Catalyst if we get a good jobs number for the next  leg down in New Zealand dollar as the dxy rallies   okay so let's look at the markets themselves  starting with crude oil crude oil has been a   market that have been highlighting to the downside  we've had some fantastic opportunities to the   downside in crude oil and last week we sold off  again so any pullback in this market once again is   simply viewed as another opportunity to look for  shorts into the 74.23 next is eurocad now these  

markets highlighted in Gold are the markets that  I think present the best opportunities next week   but just bear in mind the scorecards are showing  us there aren't too many Fantastic opportunities   because a lot of the markets are failing to  score two or more or minus two and less so just   bear that in mind when you're trading next week  it's not a great week especially with non-farm   payrolls to take lots and lots of risk and we may  see the markets correcting until non-farm payrolls   and then we start to move last week eurocad was  a market highlighted to the upside to look out   for and we did take out the 1.3890 head into  this week I do still favor long positions in   eurocad we're quite close to the Target so what I  would like to see is any pullback in this market   is once again viewed as an opportunity to look  for bullish reversals into the 1.3976 and if we   trade into this level and then reverse I would be  looking up towards Target two at the 1.4287 next  

is cadient cadion was consolidating last week and  I highlighted this as a market to look for further   declines we did have a really nice sell-off and we  started this kind of Bear Flag so any correction   is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for  shorts down to next year of support at the 101.76   next is pound CAD big breakout to the upside  in this market you can see we kind of have this   sort of an ace ended triangle pattern then we get  the break with momentum and now we're starting to   consolidate so what I'd like to see here is a  deeper pullback any deeper pullback is viewed   as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals  I'm going to be looking into the 1.6332 and the   final CAD pair is CAD Frank now not highlighted in  Gold because the Swiss franc has gone from three   to two so it's showing near-term consolidation  so I favor the other markets here but what I'd   like to see is we did take out the target  to the downside at 0.70610 and cap rank was   highlighted as the best short and this did  pay nicely last week heading into this week   any pullback in this market and again if we're  going to get the Canadian dollar and the Swiss   franc correcting as the Swiss franc corrects I  wouldn't be surprised to see it even come back   and retest this High over here and any pullback  towards this era is viewed as another opportunity   to look for bearish reversals down to the 0.6993  so next week the cab pairs are my number one Forex  

opportunities and also crude oil to the downside  I do think they represent the best opportunities   heading into next week after that I am looking  at Australian Dollar short positions you can see   here we are starting to form a potential right  shoulder in Euro Aussie what I'd be looking for   next week then because we are coming down we  might come a bit lower but if we can reverse   and get some momentum to the upside look for a  break higher and that will be the opportunity   to start to look for bullish setups into the  one point five seven zero two again just bear   in mind the Australian dollar is not super weak  it's actually only bearish to neutral but after   the Canadian dollar it is the next best short  next is Aussie Yen now Aussie yen is a market   that I like to the downside in last week's video  we looked at the major Head and Shoulders forming   in the bigger picture in Aussie Yen but recently  it's just Consolidated and in fact you can see it   coiling and coiling getting Tighter and Tighter  so perhaps we come up test these highs maybe   even test this High next week but any pullback  back in this market is still only viewed as an   opportunity to look for bearish reversals I'm  going to be looking down towards the next care   of support to the downside at the 90.53 and again  in last week's video I highlighted the break of   this is in fact the break of a right shoulder  in the head and shoulders here if we zoom out and the final Aussie pair is pound Aussie now  you can see we've started to break out this is   actually a double bottom here we came up and you  can see tested the load test the load then we   broke this is a confirmed double bottom in an  overall bull market and this is a big bullish   consolidation down here this is where we double  bottom so any pullback in this area is viewed   next week as an opportunity to look for bullish  reversals into the previous height the 1.8190 and   finally we have the dollar pairs now I do think  especially with non-farm payrolls the dollar pairs   continue to correct and we're looking at this in  the daily chart just to get a better understanding   of what's going on in the dollar pairs I would not  be surprised to see euro dollar for example and at   the moment it's just crisscrossing the seven year  breakout but I would not be surprised to see this   do one of two things either take out the high  before Friday and then reverse to the downside   with a double top on non-farm payrolls or if we  come down and take out the low into Friday I would   not be surprised to see non-farm payrolls reverse  it from the low into the high and then we could be   looking at a double top heading into December so  patients required on the dollar pairs because of   non-farm payrolls next week and one thing I will  also be looking for because I do believe this   could be a near-term double top in the the Euro  I am looking for that potential setup where we   trade into this before non-farm payrolls and then  confirm the double top on a strong jobs number so   keep an eye out for that next week next is US  dollar Franc now I think you can see clearer   here because of the momentum and the correction  this kind of ABC pattern we could be seeing in   the dollar into non-farm payrolls you can see the  pullback and I think we could probably see this   coming back up and testing the high here and then  you get that reversal to the downside taking out   the low so that's what I'm looking at potentially  in US dollar Swiss franc next week again if that's   the case and that does materialize we move up  into this area test this high and then we roll   over that of course in euro dollar would be and  ABC and then a test of the however in this area   so again that is what I think we could be seeing  and that is also confirming what we're looking   at in the dxy which is currently like this that's  why I do think after that three standard deviation   moved down we could just have a bigger correction  ABC into non-farm payrolls either way once again I   do think non-farm payrolls next week will dictate  the next move in the dollar and the final dollar   pair here is New Zealand dollar and you can see  in New Zealand dollar again we are still in an   overall downtrend we are still making lower lows  and lower highs and this should be viewed as a   bear Market rally so any pullback in New Zealand  dollar I would not be surprised to see this coming   down lower if the dollar does start to consolidate  higher into non-farm payrolls and then rallying   for a double top I do think we're coming close  especially as this is the previous High whether   we come up and test the previous high or we fail  to test the previous High which of course would   just simply be confirming the downtrend a lower  high essentially I do think we're quite close now   to reversal to the downside and I do think the New  Zealand dollar comes down to the 0.54 700 in the   near future again a lot will depend on that NFP  number next week okay so wrapping up the video   with gold silver and Bitcoin on the daily chart  once again to look at the bigger picture here you   can see we are starting to make our way down after  this sell-off to the downside and a consolidation   down to the 7j62 in the gold silver ratio and  that's why I do favor silver long positions or   rather I favor silver to the upside versus gold  heading into next week starting with gold then   what I think we're going to see next week in gold  is I do think we're going to pull down perhaps   test the lows and I think that coincides with the  dxy doing this and if that's the case then as the   dxy does come back down to the lows I think gold  comes back up to the highs and likely onto the   1807.16 so look out for this move in Gold the game  with non-farm payrolls we might just kind of be  

corrective next week but that's what I'm looking  for next in Gold next is silver silver all also   pulling back after a big momentum move and again  I think we've probably come down test the lows and   we have this a b and a c and that likely coincides  with that bigger correction I was looking at in   the dxy then as we test the lows in the dollar  this is my base case we test the highs maybe   and likely testing the 22.49 as the next Target  and then as the dollar reverses and if we get a   double bottom in the dollar that coincides with  the double top in silver and of course the next   leg down in silver near term however I do think we  have a little bit more upside left in this market   and I do favor silver to the upside over gold  based on what we're looking at in the gold silver   ratio and last but not least we have Bitcoin now  Bitcoin has become much harder to trade because   it's just been consolidating very very tightly  recently we did have a big sell-off but again   after a big sell-off look how tight this has got  you get another consolidation correction so I   wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin pulling back  deeper because that's what happens after very very   steep sell-offs like this so any pullback in this  market would be viewed as an opportunity to look   for shorts once again into the 14 858.30 however I  don't think Bitcoin is a fantastic market for next   week so that is it for me for this week guys as  always I hope you enjoyed this video and if you   did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so   far if you enjoyed today's video why not consider  joining us during the week where I share my   charts as well as the setups that I'm personally  looking at trading with members on a daily basis   and we also published the scorecards for over  75 markets in different asset classes including   Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find  out more about the benefits of GMT membership by   clicking the links in the description below and  also in the pinned comment below so thanks for   watching the only thing left to say is take care  and don't forget straight safely [Music] thank you

2022-11-29 23:40

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