Weekly Forex Forecast (28/03/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
hey traders it's john fortune here with this week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a great weekend last week was a fantastic week we had 11 out of 12 forex pairs highlighted in last week's video closing successfully in the direction outlined and we also had all five of the best pairs highlighted in last week's video closing successfully as well and with the recent uptick in volatility in the markets this is bringing tons of opportunities and we've had really good trading conditions recently alongside these increased levels of volatility we're seeing so if you have a quick look at the economic calendar heading into next week you can see there isn't too much we need to pay attention to here in terms of short-term trading we do have non-farm payrolls on the friday it is non-farm payrolls next week and it's also worth remembering that it's the last week of the quarter so you may see some corrections some profit taking coming in i wouldn't go too crazy with your trading next week because of that i would look to take maybe just a few trades but again just be careful because you can get corrective markets in the last week of the quarter as profit taking comes in people booked their profits so we may see a little bit of neutrality in the dollar leading into this but when we look at the scorecards the dollar is fairly neutral anyway i think there are better currencies to trade next week and the second thing to note just jumping ahead a week is the rba interest rate decision on the following tuesday and this interest rate decision on the 5th of april is something we need to pay attention to because again when we look at the scorecards the australian dollar is currently overbought it's the strongest currency and usually when you have an interest rate decision coming up in the next week or so you can see that currency correcting turning neutral into the event itself and when you combine that with the fact that the australian dollar is currently overbought with a score of four there are two things here that are suggesting we could see some near-term corrections in the australian dollar pair so very important when we go through the markets to bear this in mind and it's for these two reasons that although i am going to be looking at potential aussie dollar opportunities next week they are not going to be highlighted as my top pairs because the risk of a correction is greater you have three things really going into next week you have the overbought score of the australian dollar as we will see when we go in the scorecards which increases the risk of the australian dollar pairs correcting you have an interest rate decision just over a week out which increases the risk of the australian dollar pairs correcting and you have the last week of the quarter where you can see people who have made profits on these large australian dollar moves recently booking profits at the end of the quarter so there's three reasons for the australian dollar to be corrective heading into next week so you do need to pay attention to that if you're trading the aussie pairs next week okay so if we have a quick look at the scorecards and again remember these are one month forward looking scorecards they're showing you the highest probability direction for the currencies over the next one to four weeks and you can see the australian dollar scores four which is overbought you have strong bullish bias bullish bias bullish to neutral neutral bearish to neutral bearish buy strong bearish buys and oversold and you can see we just already discussed that the australian dollar is not just overbought we also have an interest rate decision just over a week and it's the end of the quarter next week so there's three reasons why the australian dollar could actually correct over the next week so i do still favor aussie longs if you are already long the australian dollar i would be using this to book profits into the highs that's really the best way to use overbought and oversold it's not to be contrarian try and pick tops and bottoms i would be looking to book profits in the australian dollar and i would primarily want to get back involved in the aussie pairs after the interest rate decision on the 5th of april because between now and then upside in the aussie pairs is likely to be capped and in fact i would expect the aussie pairs to correct into the 5th of april so after the australian dollar which is currently overbought we do have the new zealand and the cad now these represent my two favorite long currencies heading into next week and i would primarily like to pair those with the pound and the euro because you can see these have a bullish bias scoring two and the pound and the euro they have a forward looking bearish bias of minus two the japanese yen is scoring minus four so it's oversold so really opposite to the australian dollar it suggests over the next one to four weeks we're going to see a correction in the japanese yen in all probability that's the highest probability so you can almost take those two out of the equation for now the aussie and the n because we don't really want to try and pick tops and bottoms in those markets however if you are short the end or you are along the aussie it does look like we're coming to the end of those moves in those currencies and profit taking in my opinion would be advised it doesn't mean the aussie can't go a bit higher it doesn't mean the yen can't go a bit lower it just means the probabilities of a correction in those currencies over the next one four weeks is high now you can also see the us dollar and the swiss franc are kind of neutral so my primary currencies going into next week will be euro new zealand to the downside we'll be looking at primarily pound new zealand to the downside we're going to have a look at pound cad to the downside is certainly a market i'm going to be interested in and eurocad to the downside i'm going to be very interested in we also will look at the aussie pairs and the yen pairs but just bear in mind their overbought and oversold status when we go through those markets okay so a quick look at the individual currencies just to corroborate the scorecards that we've looked at you can see technically speaking the dollar is neutral just as the scorecards show two weeks ago the scorecards told us to be neutral on the dxy and in fact it's just been coiling inside a pennant ever since it isn't an overwatch trend so i am looking for higher highs in the dollar but as it currently stands i think there are better markets or better currencies to trade because who knows for how long that this market can continue to coil and we don't really want to be involved in that if it's just going to range we want to find the markets which are going to move next is the euro now the euro is quite weak and you can see it's really just the opposite or very similar to what we're seeing in the dxy but we are forming a bear flag in the euro and i am looking for further declines down to the 1.0744 this would also push the dollar higher we would see dxy rising in this scenario and euro weakness is definitely something i'm interested in looking at next week next is the pound this is my second favorite short currency next week again you can see we've just been pulling back and i think there's a high probability we come down to the 1.2984 so this move down to the 1.2984 in the coming week or so is definitely something i'm going to be paying attention to and i think this is representing one of the best opportunities to get paid over the next week so i like pound to the downside next week next is the swiss franc this market is currently structured to the downside and it does look like we also have a bear flag here so the swiss rank is bearish to neutral i think there are better currencies but what this is showing us is that i definitely wouldn't want to be long the swiss franc if you're going to trade the swiss franc it's better to be looking to be short so that would be something like aussie frank to the upside or even better because of reasons discussed with the aussie pairs new zealand frank to the upside cad frank to the upside etc i think buying swiss francs next week is the lower probability play here if you're trading swiss franc next is the japanese yen now the japanese yen has just crashed to the downside we did see a close higher right at the end of the week and with the oversold reading we have in the scorecards this suggests that there is a higher probability than not that the market is going to correct so i wouldn't be surprised to see this market snapping back you can get quite vicious snapbacks when you have short covering rallies i am still bearish overall but i wouldn't be surprised to see a correction first now in the japanese yen so with this really strong momentum what i would like to see is for the next real big opportunity in the end is any correction in this market would be the opportunity to look for shorts once again down to the 0.008083 next is the cad now we took out the target to the upside in the cad last week cad is benefiting from the recent rally in crude oil and we're seeing the stagflationary scenario playing out feeding into all of the commodity currencies like the australian dollar like the new zealand dollar like the canadian dollar you're even seeing this in the mexican peso the knock all of these currencies are strengthening and cad longs are one of my favorite plays next week next is the aussie now the aussie took out the target set to the upside last week i am still bullish on the aussie however i wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a correction first and my guess would be perhaps we come and take out the target first in the aussie at 0.75540 and we then correct into the 5th of april that's what i think is most likely to happen so i am bullish on the aussie i wouldn't mind looking at maybe a position in the aussie pair but i think new zealand pairs cad pairs euro pairs and pound pairs are better markets to trade next week because of the risk of correction in the aussie and finally new zealand we took out the target to the upside last week to the pip and you can see technically we've broken out of a major inverse head and shoulders here in the new zealand dollar so i'm looking for further advances next week and i really like this for long opportunities okay so moving on to the markets themselves starting with crude oil last week i was bullish on crude oil and we came very close taking out the target missed it just by a point so any pullback in crude oil once again is views an opportunity to look for further advances into the one one eight one nine and if we can break through here going to be looking up towards target two in crude oil at one two eight one seven now aside from crude oil itself being bullish as i said earlier you're seeing this feeding into the commodity currencies especially the oil producing nations like canada norway and mexico and it's another reason why the canadian dollar pairs to the upside our favorite plays going into next week and eurocad poundcad are both highlighted here in gold as best opportunities next week so the first pair we're going to look at is euro new zealand this is my favorite market heading into next week any pullback we've already started to form this kind of sideways pattern but any continued correction in this market is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals into the 1.5667 and because we're fairly close to this target we i think we can break through here next week and i'm going to be looking down towards target two or the one point five four seven four next is pound new zealand now alongside euro new zealand these were both shorts in last week's video and although they didn't reach the target they were very good moves i do think we're going to come and take the target set from last week at 1.8859 so
any pullback first would be fantastic as anybody who's not involved from last week this would give another opportunity to look for shorts into the 1.8859 and i'm going to be looking through there down towards target two at one point eight seven three two euro new zealand and pound new zealand represent my two favorite markets next week next is new zealand yen now last week we took out both targets to the upside this was a fantastic buying opportunity highlighting last week's video coming to this week i am still bullish on new zealand gen but because of that oversold rating in the yen it doesn't get highlighted as a best opportunity because there is an increased risk of a correction so any pullback in this market and preferably the deeper the better because it gives us a much nicer or more room to run to 85.89 but any pullback in new zealand yen will be viewed as another opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into the 85.89 and then on to target two at the 87.72 next
is eurocad now eurocad took up the targets at the 1.3752 last week and this is the third of my four favorite markets heading into next week you can see we're already breaking down with momentum so any pullback in this area any bear flag type pattern is simply going to be viewed next week as an opportunity to drop down and look for bearish breakouts down to the next target to the downside at 1.3523 keep an eye out for this move because i really like eurocad to the downside next week next is poundcad and this marks the fourth out of four best forex pairs i'm keeping my eye on next week we have come very close to the target at the 1.6416 so for anybody not involved from last week what i would want to see here is one of two things either we pull back before taking out this target and that gives us the opportunity to start to look for reversals to the downside and bearish setups into the 1.6416 or if we come down at the start of the week and take this target out first and then bounce what i'm going to be looking for then is any pullback from that bounce i'm going to be looking for shorts into the 1.6335 so really like poundcad keep an eye on this market to
the downside next week next is kadyan this was a fantastic buying opportunity highlighted in last week's video we took out all three targets to the upside we had huge moves in the yen pairs i am still bullish on candy n which is why i've put it into this video but just bear in mind we may spend a week correcting in the yen pairs because the yen is currently oversold so any pullback in this market if we can get a deeper pullback like this perhaps it just corrects for next week and then maybe towards the end of next week or the following week any breakout to the upside would be viewed as another opportunity for the next leg up into the 99.59 so i am bullish on cadyan but we may have to be a little bit patient on this for the next wave up because there may be a correction due in the m pairs next is euro aussie again none of the aussie pairs highlighted here in gold because of the risk of corrections so we may need to be patient over the next week in these markets but they're worth keeping an eye on we took out the target to the downside last week which was really nice short last week what i'm looking for here is any pullback in this market and perhaps we spend the next week or so correcting like this in your aussie and then when we have the interest rate decision we break down like this and that would be the opportunity to look for shorts once again into the 1.4431 so i do like your aussie to the downside but we maybe do a correction first next is pound aussie another really nice short last week we took out all three targets and then some coming into this week what i'd like to see is any pullback in pound aussie will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals i'm going to be looking down towards the next target at the 1.7427 next is aussie yen highlighted as a really good buying opportunity last week we
took out both targets and then some any pullback in this market will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish setups just bear in mind the aussie is overbought and the end is oversold so we could get a very deep correction in aussie yen if you are long aussie yen again it's always entirely up to you how you trade your accounts but if i were long aussie yen i'd be certainly looking at bookings and profits in the near term because we may get quite a sharp correction in aussie yen so i'd like to see this market correct in first i wouldn't want to be buying at the top here but once this market corrects any deep correction in this area will be views an opportunity to look for bullish reversals once again into the 92.66 and what i'd really want to see is as this market corrects i'd want to see both the aussie and the yen coming off of their oversold and overbought scores which would prepare us for the next rally in those currencies and finally we have euro dollar we cover euro dollar every week i'm still bearish on EURUSD but you can see when the dollar is not strong or you have kind of neutral currencies even if you have a neutral versus a slightly bearish currency it really doesn't go very far and all of these kind of corrections are what the scorecards keep us out of they put us in front of the most volatile markets the biggest movers each week and so i am looking for the declines in euro dollar perhaps we start to see as the euro breaks down we start to see some momentum coming in i would like to see some momentum first and this would be somewhat of a head and shoulders breakout down below this level so if we could break down here with momentum next week like this i would be looking for a pullback in EURUSD and i'd be looking down towards the 1.0781 so i do think this move is coming but look for the momentum and the breakout first otherwise this could just continue to correct and if you jump in before you get any of that momentum to the downside you could just be stuck in a ranging market for the next two weeks so i like EURUSD but look for the breakout to the downside with momentum first to finish off with stocks gold silver and bitcoin starting with stocks and starting with the spx last week i was bullish on spx we are approaching the four five eight one which is a target to the upside any pullback in this market would be views an opportunity to look further advances into the 481.78 and if we break through here we're looking up towards target 2 at the 4733.77 something which i mentioned last week however is that although i am bullish on stocks as it currently stands the market is still in a downtrend this is a counter trend move and counter trend moves are always more risky so if you only like to trade long positions for example in an uptrend then you can just sit these out because any longs in stocks currently do have slightly higher risk it's close to trying to pick a bottom you're not quite picking a bottom because the market is already trending to the upside in the near term but because the overall market is down any long positions in stocks next week are higher risk so just bear that in mind there's nothing wrong as i always say with just sitting on the sidelines waiting for nice trending markets in order to get involved next is the nasdaq now last week we took out the target set at the 1464 the nasdaq is bullish in the near term but again this is count to trend the overall trend is still to the downside so any pullback would be viewed as an opportunity to look for further advances in the nasdaq into the 15 165.51 next is the dow jones last week i was bullish on the dow jones
and we did come up and take out the highs however you can see moves up are slightly capped somewhat because again the overall trend is down so i am bullish but it is counter trend any pullback in this market would currently as it stands be viewed as an opportunity to look for further advances into the 35 594.05 next is the russell now out of all of these you can see the russell is the most corrective and it actually is the weakest of all the indices which in and of itself is fairly bearish for stocks overall because the russell tends to lead other indices we are approaching the target set last week at the 2107.08 we don't have much room here so i would be looking for this target to be achieved as i've said in previous videos this is a major inflection point and if we break above here with momentum that would be very bullish for the russell so if you're not already involved from last week it doesn't look like there's much risk reward now to the target 2107.08 i really think patience is required in the russell look at this range this tight correction i'm very interested to see what it does when it takes out or if it comes up and hits the 2107.08 does it
reject from here which would be very bearish given how important this is as an inflection point in the russell or does it break through with momentum if we get a breakthrough here with momentum and a breakout of this near-term correction that would actually be somewhat of a lean indicator for the stock market and it would suggest that the bounce we're seeing in the other stock markets may actually continue up to new highs but i would really like to see the russell breaking above the 2107 with momentum before i look to get involved in this i think the russell overall is a bit of a wait and see risk reward at these levels is not great uh finally we have the nifty now the nifty is currently bullish near term but again it is bullish in an overall downtrend so any longs in the nifty although we're seeing sharp short covering rallies and counter trend moves any longs as it currently stands is actually counter trend the better trade in my opinion in the nifty is below the one seven zero forty if the nifty starts to break down like this especially with momentum i'd be looking for pull backs and this would be in line then with the overall trend in the nifty and that's where you're most likely to get really nice moves back down to the lows in this area so if you want to trade counter trend i don't think there's much risk to reward here i personally would leave the longs in the nifty for the time being the real main opportunity i'm looking at in the nifty is a break below the 17 0 40. so if it breaks down here with momentum and pulls back look for moves into the lows down towards the 15600 so finishing off with gold silver and bitcoin i have been bullish on XAUUSD recently and we are making our way towards the 2001.49 the slight issue in XAUUSD is we had such a huge amount of volatility and a steep run up that you tend to get kind of corrective markets when you see such big moves and we have been kind of not correcting but we've been not really going anywhere kind of just grinding to the upside ever since we retested the 1910. so as it currently stands you can see we had a really nice breakout to the upside and we're starting to pull back from the highs so any continued pullback in gold next week is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals and especially with the dollar being kind of neutral XAUUSD actually to the upside looks quite good next week i am interested in keeping my eye on this so any breakup in this area i'm going to be looking at initiating longs into the 2001 2001.49 next is XAGUSD now silver also looks nice heading into next week you can see
we've started to break to the upside and i think i actually prefer silver over and above gold next week just the way it's technically setting up and remember just like with gold we also have a kind of neutral dollar which is going to assist or support price to the upside in both gold and silver so any continued pullback in this market you can see we're currently forming a ball flag it is going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals i'm going to be looking up towards the next care resistance the upside in the target set at 26.89 there is a bit of a gap here so it may take a couple of weeks to get to 26.89 but that is the next key target to the upside and last but not least we have bitcoin now ever since we sold off to the downside hard here i have been bullish on bitcoin we had the initial spike we pulled back and i've been looking for the targets of the 45 six and four nine and just like a magnet price has been drawn to this level here and we are very close to achieving this so either one of two things here next week either we pull back first and that gives us an opportunity for anybody not involved previously once again to look for a bullish reversal into the 45 649 or if we come up and take out this target and then reverse i'm going to be looking at a breakout towards target two at the four eight five two three so it took a little bit of time from down in these areas but anyone who went along in bitcoin in the weekly forex forecast down here and holding to the 45 649 does look like you're now going to be paid on this next week so that is it for me for this week guys as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thank you to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your training next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2022-03-28 12:46