Weekly Forex Forecast (28/03/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (28/03/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Show Video

hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're   having a great weekend last week was a fantastic  week we had 11 out of 12 forex pairs highlighted   in last week's video closing successfully in  the direction outlined and we also had all   five of the best pairs highlighted in last  week's video closing successfully as well   and with the recent uptick in volatility in the  markets this is bringing tons of opportunities and   we've had really good trading conditions recently  alongside these increased levels of volatility   we're seeing so if you have a quick look at the  economic calendar heading into next week you can   see there isn't too much we need to pay attention  to here in terms of short-term trading we do have   non-farm payrolls on the friday it is non-farm  payrolls next week and it's also worth remembering   that it's the last week of the quarter so you may  see some corrections some profit taking coming in   i wouldn't go too crazy with your trading next  week because of that i would look to take maybe   just a few trades but again just be careful  because you can get corrective markets in the   last week of the quarter as profit taking comes in  people booked their profits so we may see a little   bit of neutrality in the dollar leading into this  but when we look at the scorecards the dollar is   fairly neutral anyway i think there are better  currencies to trade next week and the second   thing to note just jumping ahead a week is the rba  interest rate decision on the following tuesday   and this interest rate decision on the 5th of  april is something we need to pay attention to   because again when we look at the scorecards the  australian dollar is currently overbought it's the   strongest currency and usually when you have an  interest rate decision coming up in the next week   or so you can see that currency correcting turning  neutral into the event itself and when you combine   that with the fact that the australian dollar  is currently overbought with a score of four   there are two things here that are suggesting  we could see some near-term corrections in the   australian dollar pair so very important when  we go through the markets to bear this in mind   and it's for these two reasons that although i  am going to be looking at potential aussie dollar   opportunities next week they are not going to be  highlighted as my top pairs because the risk of a   correction is greater you have three things really  going into next week you have the overbought score   of the australian dollar as we will see when we  go in the scorecards which increases the risk of   the australian dollar pairs correcting you have an  interest rate decision just over a week out which   increases the risk of the australian dollar pairs  correcting and you have the last week of the   quarter where you can see people who have made  profits on these large australian dollar moves   recently booking profits at the end of the quarter  so there's three reasons for the australian dollar   to be corrective heading into next week so you do  need to pay attention to that if you're trading   the aussie pairs next week okay so if we have a  quick look at the scorecards and again remember   these are one month forward looking scorecards  they're showing you the highest probability   direction for the currencies over the next one to  four weeks and you can see the australian dollar   scores four which is overbought you have strong  bullish bias bullish bias bullish to neutral   neutral bearish to neutral bearish buy strong  bearish buys and oversold and you can see we   just already discussed that the australian dollar  is not just overbought we also have an interest   rate decision just over a week and it's the end of  the quarter next week so there's three reasons why   the australian dollar could actually correct over  the next week so i do still favor aussie longs   if you are already long the australian dollar i  would be using this to book profits into the highs   that's really the best way to use overbought and  oversold it's not to be contrarian try and pick   tops and bottoms i would be looking to book  profits in the australian dollar and i would   primarily want to get back involved in the aussie  pairs after the interest rate decision on the 5th   of april because between now and then upside in  the aussie pairs is likely to be capped and in   fact i would expect the aussie pairs to correct  into the 5th of april so after the australian   dollar which is currently overbought we do have  the new zealand and the cad now these represent   my two favorite long currencies heading into  next week and i would primarily like to pair   those with the pound and the euro because you  can see these have a bullish bias scoring two   and the pound and the euro they have a  forward looking bearish bias of minus two   the japanese yen is scoring minus four so it's  oversold so really opposite to the australian   dollar it suggests over the next one to four  weeks we're going to see a correction in the   japanese yen in all probability that's the  highest probability so you can almost take   those two out of the equation for now the aussie  and the n because we don't really want to try and   pick tops and bottoms in those markets however if  you are short the end or you are along the aussie   it does look like we're coming to the end  of those moves in those currencies and   profit taking in my opinion would be advised it  doesn't mean the aussie can't go a bit higher it   doesn't mean the yen can't go a bit lower it just  means the probabilities of a correction in those   currencies over the next one four weeks is high  now you can also see the us dollar and the swiss   franc are kind of neutral so my primary currencies  going into next week will be euro new zealand to   the downside we'll be looking at primarily pound  new zealand to the downside we're going to have a   look at pound cad to the downside is certainly a  market i'm going to be interested in and eurocad   to the downside i'm going to be very interested in  we also will look at the aussie pairs and the yen   pairs but just bear in mind their overbought and  oversold status when we go through those markets   okay so a quick look at the individual currencies  just to corroborate the scorecards that we've   looked at you can see technically speaking the  dollar is neutral just as the scorecards show   two weeks ago the scorecards told us to be  neutral on the dxy and in fact it's just been   coiling inside a pennant ever since it isn't an  overwatch trend so i am looking for higher highs   in the dollar but as it currently stands i think  there are better markets or better currencies to   trade because who knows for how long that this  market can continue to coil and we don't really   want to be involved in that if it's just going  to range we want to find the markets which are   going to move next is the euro now the euro is  quite weak and you can see it's really just the   opposite or very similar to what we're seeing in  the dxy but we are forming a bear flag in the euro   and i am looking for further declines down to the  1.0744 this would also push the dollar higher we   would see dxy rising in this scenario and euro  weakness is definitely something i'm interested   in looking at next week next is the pound this is  my second favorite short currency next week again   you can see we've just been pulling back and i  think there's a high probability we come down   to the 1.2984 so this move down to the 1.2984 in  the coming week or so is definitely something i'm   going to be paying attention to and i think this  is representing one of the best opportunities to   get paid over the next week so i like pound to the  downside next week next is the swiss franc this   market is currently structured to the downside and  it does look like we also have a bear flag here so   the swiss rank is bearish to neutral i think there  are better currencies but what this is showing us   is that i definitely wouldn't want to be long the  swiss franc if you're going to trade the swiss   franc it's better to be looking to be short so  that would be something like aussie frank to the   upside or even better because of reasons discussed  with the aussie pairs new zealand frank to the   upside cad frank to the upside etc i think buying  swiss francs next week is the lower probability   play here if you're trading swiss franc next is  the japanese yen now the japanese yen has just   crashed to the downside we did see a close higher  right at the end of the week and with the oversold   reading we have in the scorecards this suggests  that there is a higher probability than not that   the market is going to correct so i wouldn't be  surprised to see this market snapping back you can   get quite vicious snapbacks when you have short  covering rallies i am still bearish overall but   i wouldn't be surprised to see a correction first  now in the japanese yen so with this really strong   momentum what i would like to see is for the  next real big opportunity in the end is any   correction in this market would be the opportunity  to look for shorts once again down to the 0.008083 next is the cad now we took out the target to the  upside in the cad last week cad is benefiting from   the recent rally in crude oil and we're seeing  the stagflationary scenario playing out feeding   into all of the commodity currencies like the  australian dollar like the new zealand dollar like   the canadian dollar you're even seeing this in the  mexican peso the knock all of these currencies are   strengthening and cad longs are one of my favorite  plays next week next is the aussie now the aussie   took out the target set to the upside last week i  am still bullish on the aussie however i wouldn't   be surprised to see a bit of a correction first  and my guess would be perhaps we come and take   out the target first in the aussie at 0.75540  and we then correct into the 5th of april that's   what i think is most likely to happen so i am  bullish on the aussie i wouldn't mind looking at   maybe a position in the aussie pair but i think  new zealand pairs cad pairs euro pairs and pound   pairs are better markets to trade next week  because of the risk of correction in the aussie   and finally new zealand we took out the target to  the upside last week to the pip and you can see   technically we've broken out of a major inverse  head and shoulders here in the new zealand dollar   so i'm looking for further advances next week  and i really like this for long opportunities   okay so moving on to the markets themselves  starting with crude oil last week i was bullish   on crude oil and we came very close taking out the  target missed it just by a point so any pullback   in crude oil once again is views an opportunity to  look for further advances into the one one eight   one nine and if we can break through here going  to be looking up towards target two in crude oil   at one two eight one seven now aside from crude  oil itself being bullish as i said earlier you're   seeing this feeding into the commodity currencies  especially the oil producing nations like   canada norway and mexico and it's another reason  why the canadian dollar pairs to the upside   our favorite plays going into next week and  eurocad poundcad are both highlighted here in gold   as best opportunities next week so the first pair  we're going to look at is euro new zealand this   is my favorite market heading into next week any  pullback we've already started to form this kind   of sideways pattern but any continued correction  in this market is simply viewed as an opportunity   to look for bearish reversals into the 1.5667  and because we're fairly close to this target we   i think we can break through here next week and  i'm going to be looking down towards target two   or the one point five four seven four next is  pound new zealand now alongside euro new zealand   these were both shorts in last week's video and  although they didn't reach the target they were   very good moves i do think we're going to come and  take the target set from last week at 1.8859 so  

any pullback first would be fantastic as anybody  who's not involved from last week this would give   another opportunity to look for shorts into the  1.8859 and i'm going to be looking through there   down towards target two at one point eight seven  three two euro new zealand and pound new zealand   represent my two favorite markets next week next  is new zealand yen now last week we took out both   targets to the upside this was a fantastic buying  opportunity highlighting last week's video coming   to this week i am still bullish on new zealand  gen but because of that oversold rating in the yen   it doesn't get highlighted as a best opportunity  because there is an increased risk of a correction   so any pullback in this market and preferably the  deeper the better because it gives us a much nicer   or more room to run to 85.89 but any pullback  in new zealand yen will be viewed as another   opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into the  85.89 and then on to target two at the 87.72 next  

is eurocad now eurocad took up the targets at the  1.3752 last week and this is the third of my four   favorite markets heading into next week you can  see we're already breaking down with momentum   so any pullback in this area any bear flag type  pattern is simply going to be viewed next week as   an opportunity to drop down and look for bearish  breakouts down to the next target to the downside   at 1.3523 keep an eye out for this move because i  really like eurocad to the downside next week next   is poundcad and this marks the fourth out of four  best forex pairs i'm keeping my eye on next week   we have come very close to the target at the  1.6416 so for anybody not involved from last week   what i would want to see here is one of two things  either we pull back before taking out this target   and that gives us the opportunity to start to look  for reversals to the downside and bearish setups   into the 1.6416 or if we come down at the start of  the week and take this target out first and then   bounce what i'm going to be looking for then is  any pullback from that bounce i'm going to be   looking for shorts into the 1.6335 so really  like poundcad keep an eye on this market to  

the downside next week next is kadyan this was a  fantastic buying opportunity highlighted in last   week's video we took out all three targets to  the upside we had huge moves in the yen pairs i   am still bullish on candy n which is why i've put  it into this video but just bear in mind we may   spend a week correcting in the yen pairs because  the yen is currently oversold so any pullback in   this market if we can get a deeper pullback like  this perhaps it just corrects for next week and   then maybe towards the end of next week or the  following week any breakout to the upside would   be viewed as another opportunity for the next leg  up into the 99.59 so i am bullish on cadyan but   we may have to be a little bit patient on this for  the next wave up because there may be a correction   due in the m pairs next is euro aussie again  none of the aussie pairs highlighted here in gold   because of the risk of corrections so we may need  to be patient over the next week in these markets   but they're worth keeping an eye on we took out  the target to the downside last week which was   really nice short last week what i'm looking for  here is any pullback in this market and perhaps   we spend the next week or so correcting like this  in your aussie and then when we have the interest   rate decision we break down like this and that  would be the opportunity to look for shorts once   again into the 1.4431 so i do like your aussie to  the downside but we maybe do a correction first   next is pound aussie another really nice short  last week we took out all three targets and then   some coming into this week what i'd like to see  is any pullback in pound aussie will be viewed as   an opportunity to look for bearish reversals i'm  going to be looking down towards the next target   at the 1.7427 next is aussie yen highlighted as  a really good buying opportunity last week we  

took out both targets and then some any pullback  in this market will be viewed as an opportunity   to look for bullish setups just bear in mind the  aussie is overbought and the end is oversold so we   could get a very deep correction in aussie yen if  you are long aussie yen again it's always entirely   up to you how you trade your accounts but if i  were long aussie yen i'd be certainly looking at   bookings and profits in the near term because we  may get quite a sharp correction in aussie yen so   i'd like to see this market correct in first  i wouldn't want to be buying at the top here   but once this market corrects any deep correction  in this area will be views an opportunity to look   for bullish reversals once again into the 92.66  and what i'd really want to see is as this market   corrects i'd want to see both the aussie and the  yen coming off of their oversold and overbought   scores which would prepare us for the next  rally in those currencies and finally we have   euro dollar we cover euro dollar every week i'm  still bearish on EURUSD but you can see when the   dollar is not strong or you have kind of neutral  currencies even if you have a neutral versus a   slightly bearish currency it really doesn't go  very far and all of these kind of corrections   are what the scorecards keep us out of they put us  in front of the most volatile markets the biggest   movers each week and so i am looking for the  declines in euro dollar perhaps we start to see as   the euro breaks down we start to see some momentum  coming in i would like to see some momentum first   and this would be somewhat of a head and shoulders  breakout down below this level so if we could   break down here with momentum next week like  this i would be looking for a pullback in EURUSD   and i'd be looking down towards the 1.0781 so  i do think this move is coming but look for the   momentum and the breakout first otherwise this  could just continue to correct and if you jump   in before you get any of that momentum to the  downside you could just be stuck in a ranging   market for the next two weeks so i like EURUSD  but look for the breakout to the downside with   momentum first to finish off with stocks gold  silver and bitcoin starting with stocks and   starting with the spx last week i was bullish on  spx we are approaching the four five eight one   which is a target to the upside any pullback in  this market would be views an opportunity to look   further advances into the 481.78 and if we break  through here we're looking up towards target 2 at   the 4733.77 something which i mentioned last week  however is that although i am bullish on stocks   as it currently stands the market is still  in a downtrend this is a counter trend move   and counter trend moves are always more risky  so if you only like to trade long positions for   example in an uptrend then you can just sit these  out because any longs in stocks currently do have   slightly higher risk it's close to trying to pick  a bottom you're not quite picking a bottom because   the market is already trending to the upside in  the near term but because the overall market is   down any long positions in stocks next week are  higher risk so just bear that in mind there's   nothing wrong as i always say with just sitting  on the sidelines waiting for nice trending markets   in order to get involved next is the nasdaq now  last week we took out the target set at the 1464   the nasdaq is bullish in the near term but again  this is count to trend the overall trend is still   to the downside so any pullback would be viewed  as an opportunity to look for further advances   in the nasdaq into the 15 165.51 next is the dow  jones last week i was bullish on the dow jones  

and we did come up and take out the highs however  you can see moves up are slightly capped somewhat   because again the overall trend is down so i am  bullish but it is counter trend any pullback in   this market would currently as it stands be viewed  as an opportunity to look for further advances   into the 35 594.05 next is the russell now out  of all of these you can see the russell is the   most corrective and it actually is the weakest of  all the indices which in and of itself is fairly   bearish for stocks overall because the russell  tends to lead other indices we are approaching   the target set last week at the 2107.08 we don't  have much room here so i would be looking for this   target to be achieved as i've said in previous  videos this is a major inflection point and if we   break above here with momentum that would be very  bullish for the russell so if you're not already   involved from last week it doesn't look like  there's much risk reward now to the target 2107.08   i really think patience is required in the russell  look at this range this tight correction i'm very   interested to see what it does when it takes out  or if it comes up and hits the 2107.08 does it  

reject from here which would be very bearish given  how important this is as an inflection point in   the russell or does it break through with momentum  if we get a breakthrough here with momentum and a   breakout of this near-term correction that would  actually be somewhat of a lean indicator for   the stock market and it would suggest that the  bounce we're seeing in the other stock markets   may actually continue up to new highs but i would  really like to see the russell breaking above the   2107 with momentum before i look to get involved  in this i think the russell overall is a bit of   a wait and see risk reward at these levels is  not great uh finally we have the nifty now the   nifty is currently bullish near term but again it  is bullish in an overall downtrend so any longs   in the nifty although we're seeing sharp short  covering rallies and counter trend moves any longs   as it currently stands is actually counter trend  the better trade in my opinion in the nifty is   below the one seven zero forty if the nifty starts  to break down like this especially with momentum   i'd be looking for pull backs and this would be  in line then with the overall trend in the nifty   and that's where you're most likely to get really  nice moves back down to the lows in this area so   if you want to trade counter trend i don't think  there's much risk to reward here i personally   would leave the longs in the nifty for the time  being the real main opportunity i'm looking at   in the nifty is a break below the 17 0 40. so if  it breaks down here with momentum and pulls back   look for moves into the lows down towards the  15600 so finishing off with gold silver and   bitcoin i have been bullish on XAUUSD recently  and we are making our way towards the 2001.49   the slight issue in XAUUSD is we had such a  huge amount of volatility and a steep run up   that you tend to get kind of corrective markets  when you see such big moves and we have been kind   of not correcting but we've been not really going  anywhere kind of just grinding to the upside ever   since we retested the 1910. so as it currently  stands you can see we had a really nice breakout   to the upside and we're starting to pull back  from the highs so any continued pullback in gold   next week is viewed as an opportunity to look for  bullish reversals and especially with the dollar   being kind of neutral XAUUSD actually to the  upside looks quite good next week i am interested   in keeping my eye on this so any breakup in this  area i'm going to be looking at initiating longs   into the 2001 2001.49 next is XAGUSD now silver  also looks nice heading into next week you can see  

we've started to break to the upside and i think  i actually prefer silver over and above gold next   week just the way it's technically setting up  and remember just like with gold we also have a   kind of neutral dollar which is going to assist  or support price to the upside in both gold and   silver so any continued pullback in this market  you can see we're currently forming a ball flag   it is going to be viewed as an opportunity to look  for bullish reversals i'm going to be looking up   towards the next care resistance the upside in the  target set at 26.89 there is a bit of a gap here   so it may take a couple of weeks to get to 26.89  but that is the next key target to the upside and   last but not least we have bitcoin now ever since  we sold off to the downside hard here i have been   bullish on bitcoin we had the initial spike we  pulled back and i've been looking for the targets   of the 45 six and four nine and just like a magnet  price has been drawn to this level here and we are   very close to achieving this so either one of  two things here next week either we pull back   first and that gives us an opportunity for anybody  not involved previously once again to look for a   bullish reversal into the 45 649 or if we come  up and take out this target and then reverse i'm   going to be looking at a breakout towards target  two at the four eight five two three so it took a   little bit of time from down in these areas but  anyone who went along in bitcoin in the weekly   forex forecast down here and holding to the 45 649  does look like you're now going to be paid on this   next week so that is it for me for this week guys  as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank you to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and  i want to wish you all the best in your   training next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-03-28 12:46

Show Video

Other news