Weekly Forex Forecast (26/04/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / 30+ Pairs
hey traders it's john fortune here this week's weekly forex forecast we're going to run through over 30 markets highlighting targets in each market for the week ahead as we go through the markets we're going to build out a data driven high probability watch list along the way for next week so i hope you're having a nice weekend let's kick off with the dxy in last week's video i noted that the dxy was still structured to the upside but i went into last week with a neutral bias on the dxy prepared to trade it both ways and i did state that the 9130 could very likely be broken last week and i wouldn't be surprised to see it breaking that level starting to reverse to the downside and if it did that we would see outside of the watch list EURUSD, AUDUSD in NZDUSD as ones to watch last week and all three of those markets work very nicely as we'll see when we go through the markets today so in terms of this week it's quite straightforward i go into this week with a bearish bias on the dxy any correction any pullback in the dxy would be viewed as an opportunity to look for dollar weak positions going into this week and the next kf supports the downside in the dxy which may take a couple of weeks to achieve is the 89.71 so i do favor dollar weak positions going into next week and it's worth noting that total trending markets has risen from 19 to 25 so the watch list is still slimmed down because only a quarter of the markets are fully trending but it does point towards the markets starting to trend and find direction once again coming into the summer with the rolling over of the dxy last week and of course once that picks up even more i would begin to look to risk more in the markets as opposed to the capital preservation approach that i've had over the last two weeks where markets have been choppy and therefore i have been reducing my risk and reducing the amount of trades i've been taking overall crude oil crude oil was on the watch this last week and it is on the watch list again this week i do like crude oil to the upside it has been very choppy over the last couple of weeks like a lot of the markets and this just validating the idea to actually have taken less trades over the last two weeks like we were looking at in the forecast we've broken out of this sideways move and last week i highlighted the fact that i want to see a pullback and then i would start to look for long positions in crude oil we have started to pull back so any deeper correction this week is still regarded as a good opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the upside the target set and the 65.42 EURUSD, EURUSD was a really nice market last week we discussed in last week's forecast that if we started to break down in the dxy this would put some of the dollar pairs on the table like EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD and once we started to break down we did have a really nice rally taking out the 1.2061 very simply put going into this week it's not on the high probability watch list because
that's data driven i don't get to decide what's on there it's all done via data but i do like EURUSD outside of the watchlist pairs this week as well just as i did last week i'll be keeping an eye on it this week so any correction in EURUSD would be looking next week for a bullish reversal in this market up towards the next key of resistance the upside and the second target from last week at one point two one five five GBPUSD, GBPUSD does go down on the high probability watch list and i like GBPUSD because not only is the dxy rolling over to the downside is the data showing that this is quite a strong market to the upside but technically speaking we broke out of a double bottom pattern last week and we are currently sitting with nice momentum and a ball flag so any continued correction impound dollar next week will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the upside in the target set at 1.4081 USDJPY, USDJPY reversed to the downside last week as did the dxy and going into this week although the markets are quite corrective dollar weak positions are probably one of the better plays going into next week so any pullback in us dollar yen although it's not on the high probability watch list would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next care of support to the downside the target set at the 106.71 AUDUSD, AUDUSD was a nice market last week we took out the 0.7810 which was pretty much the high of that week and that's the second week in a row we've pretty much picked the high of the week in AUDUSD i did note last week that i did like this market although it wasn't making the watch list and i repeat that again this week AUDUSD to the upside NZDUSD to the outside EURUSD to the upside once again are markets that i like even though they do not make the watch list this week and i will be looking at these for potential trading opportunities this week so any pullback as we're already seeing in AUDUSD is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for bullish reversals in this market up towards the next key of resistance the upside in the target set 0.7848
NZDUSD again this was a market that wasn't on the watch list last week but i did highlight in last week's video this would be one i'd be keeping an eye on nonetheless we did take out targets at 0.7221 and that was pretty much the high of the week in NZDUSD going into this week i like this market once again even though it doesn't make the watch list so any pullback in this market will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals i'm going to be looking up towards the next key of resistance the upside in the target set the 0.7268 USDCHF last week i was looking further declines in this market into the 0.9102 we came close but we didn't quite take this target out so very simply put for anybody not involved from last week any correction as we're coming quite close to the target any correction would once again be viewed as an opportunity to look for short positions down to the next care supports the downside the target set from last week zero point nine one zero two and any breakthrough here are we looking down towards target two zero point nine USDCAD it was on the watch list last week for a high probability move to the downside we did have a bit of whipsaw with the interest rate decision but we did ultimately finish the week to the downside we came very close to the target at 1.2436 we haven't achieved it yet so for anybody not involved from last week any correction in this market once again would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down towards the next care supports the downside the target set from last week the four three six and on a break through here i would be looking down towards target two at the one point two three six three and wrapping up the dollar pairs we have XAUUSD last week i noted that the market had broken out to the upside and i did like this for further advance to the upside although again it was not on the watch list very similar to this week we only have two dollar pairs on the watch list they are the two primary pairs i'll be looking at out of the dollar pairs but i do like the dollar weakness trades across the board going into next week so although we just stopped shy of the target from last week any pullback as we're already getting would once again be viewed as another opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the upside the target from last week with the 1 1807.87 so that is the watch list so far out of the dollar
pairs i like GBPUSD to the upside USDCAD to the downside primarily because they are on the watch list that means the date is showing they are two of the best pairs out of the dollar pairs but i do like as a theme dollar weakness next week and i like the dollar week positions going into next week pretty much across the board including XAUUSD to the upside EURUSD to the upside etc i do think the better opportunities could very well be in the dollar pairs next week kicking off the euro and the yen pairs is of course EURJPY now last week we really didn't go anywhere in this market and it has been on the high probability watch list for the last couple of weeks the good thing about this it shows you something about the high probability watch list which is that when you trade a strong and a weak currency you really need both of those currencies to reverse in order to take some kind of a decent loss because if one of the currencies fails or reverses usually the market just goes nowhere so you don't make any money but you don't lose any money either and that's really what we've seen on EURJPY for the last couple of weeks going to this week i do still favor long positions in this market and i do think this is just a pause before further advances so any correction once again would be viewed as another opportunity to look for bullish setups in this market up towards the next q resistance the upside the target set the 131.17 CHFJPY, CHFJPY reversed to the downside last week and this is again just a very choppy market more or less left this market completely alone this year and a couple of times that we have been looking at it just started to reverse so going into next week it is structured to the downside i have very little interest in this market i think there are better places to put capital next week especially with the dollar weakness so anyone who is looking to trade this though any pullback towards the 11830 would be viewed as the opportunity to start to look for bearish reversals in this market down towards the next care of support the downside in the target set at the 117.20. GBPJPY, GBPJPY was on the high probability watch list to the upside last week and we did take out the target to the 151.52 and that was pretty much the high of the week last week in this market we then reversed and we're actually structured to the downside so i have very little interest in trading this market to the downside because most of the currencies are structured to the upside against the yen and yet the pound is one of the stronger currencies against the dollar so this chart doesn't make too much sense i think we could see this reverse higher in the near future so i will be filtering out short positions i won't be trading this market but if you are looking to trade it next week the opportunity would be for any pullback towards the 151.540 to look for bearish reversals down to the next key of support to the downside at the 148.54
AUDJPY, AUDJPY is on the watch list next week for a move to the upside i'm interested in this market to the upside however you can see that the market is still quite choppy and this is reflecting what we looked at at the beginning of the video where 25 a quarter of the markets are trending and 75 aren't so the markets haven't found direction yet but based on the total number of trending markets increasing they may be coming into more of a directional move so very simply put any reversal in AUDJPY to the upside next week would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish setups up towards the next care resistance outside the target set at the 84.65 CADJPY currently structured to the downside and quite choppy just whip saw in last week on the interest rate decision so if you are looking to trade this market i think there are better pairs out there especially the dollar pairs we looked at if you are looking to trade this market any correction towards the 87 130 would be viewed as the opportunity to look for short positions down to the next care of support to the downside at the 85.11 NZDJPY down the watch list is one to watch next week and as we see the dollar rolling over to the downside we're seeing the safe haven currencies weakening and we're seeing those commodities those kind of reflationary currencies aussie new zealand etc starting to strengthen so i would be interested in opportunities to the upside NZDJPY next week any continued correction would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals in this market up towards the next q a resistance the outside the target set and 78.67
EURCHF, EURCHF is a very choppy market and we did trade this nicely to the upside it was on the watch list for a number of weeks and then it started to get a bit corrective over here and it came off the watch list and the watch list has saved us all of this headache in this choppy market since we took it off it is not gonna watch this this week and i think there are better markets out there to trade if you are looking to trade it however the opportunity would be for any correction start to look for bearish breakouts down to the 1.0956 EURNZD, EURNZD is quite choppy we look to be in a range between these kind of levels here and this is because the dollar weakening both new zealand and the euro are gaining from this and the market's just ranging so taking this from the range bottom if you are looking to trade this next week and again if you are looking to allocate capital why not take EURUSD to the upside of NZDUSD to the upside instead of trading EURNZD that makes more sense to me but if you are looking to trade this any correction would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance to the upside and the target set and the 1.6916 EURAUD similar to EURNZD both these currencies are benefiting from a weaker dollar and as a result the market is very choppy we did pull back and bounce from the one point five four five twenty and we're grinding up towards the one point five six eighty so if y'all can trade this market and again i think there are better opportunities i would rather put my money into dollar pairs next week any pullback would be viewed as the opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the 1.5680 euro pound although this market was not on the high probability watch list last week i did make a point of highlighting it to say that there was a very good chance we moved to the upside in this market because of things we were seeing in some of the other markets we did have a pullback and a really nice rally so the move has pretty much already taken place we stopped just short of the target but there was a nice rally to capture last week because going into this week the pound is not as weak as it was this isn't as good a market this week but if you are looking to trade it this week and you weren't involved from last week you'd need to see a correction first and i would be looking for bullish setups once again up towards the next care resistance the upside at the 0.8740 so just to repeat the move in this market pretty much has already taken place last week if you are looking trade this week i would prefer dollar pairs now going into this week and i'd let this pass me by if you weren't involved already from last week EURCAD we took out both targets to the upside in this market last week i think i prefer dollar weak positions yen weak positions going into this week especially with crude oil starting to break out to the upside we had a correctional last week which helped eurcad to the upside but if oil starts to move to the upside we could see eurcad struggling so i'm not as big a fan of eurcad this week if you are looking to trade it however any correction in this market would be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance to the upside at the 1.5209 GBPCHF, GBPCHF is not on the watch list and it's structured to the downside it is grinding to the downside but i'm not a big fan of pound shorts next week so i will personally filter this out if you are looking to trade this any correction once again would be the opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next gear support the 1.2575
GBPAUD two currencies benefiting from the weakness in the dollar and so again i would rather trade GBPUSD and AUDUSD against the us dollar next week then against each other if you are looking to trade this however and i will personally be filtering this out any pull back towards the 1.8050 would be viewed as the opportunity to look for bearish setups down to the 1.7695 GBPCAD, GBPCAD kind of whipsawed like a lot of the cad pairs offered the interest rate decision last week it is stretched to the upside i would prefer to trade pound dollar to the upside next week but if you are looking to trade this any pullback should be viewed as the opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the outside the target set at the 1.755 GBPNZD similar to GBPAUD two currencies benefiting from the weakness in the dxy but we're seeing the commodity currencies outperforming the pound and this is why the markets are grinding to the downside in both of these so i would favor short positions but i think there are better opportunities out there any correction for anybody who's not involved on the pullback would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish setups down towards the next care supports the downside at the 1.9058 AUDCHF structure to the downside this market's quite corrective as we see the us dollar index declining this is going to primarily strengthen the commodity currencies over and above the other currencies and this is going to put upward pressure on this market so i don't really like this market going into next week if you are looking to trade it the opportunity would be for any pullback to be viewed as an opportunity to look for short positions down to the next care of support 0.6990 AUDCAD structure to the upside which makes sense if the xy is rolling over because you would expect the australian dollar to outperform the cad but both commodity currencies so this market could get a bit choppy if you are looking to trade this any pullback towards 0.95840 would be viewed as the opportunity to look for bullish reversals
up towards the next care resistance to the upside 0.9787 i think i would prefer to trade USDCAD to the downside or EURUSD to the upside over personally next week AUDNZD we did take out the target set at the 1.0768 last week i don't really like this market that much even though we took out target last week because both the aussie and the new zealand will be benefiting primarily from the dollar weakness so the main takeaway i would have from this market is that the aussie is weaker than new zealand so when you look at other pairs NZDUSD to the upside AUDUSD to the upside for example AUDJPY to the upside NZDJPY to the upside i'll just bear in mind that the new zealand dollar is stronger than the australian dollar so if you are looking to trade this and again i think they're better markets especially in the dollar pairs any pullback in this market would be viewed as the opportunity to once again look for bearish setups down towards the next care of support at the 1.0718 NZDCAD took out target last week at 0.9040 and that was pretty much the high of last week in
the move to the upside going into this week both new zealand and the cad should be benefiting from the weaker dollar you would expect NZDCAD to drift upwards as the new zealand dollar benefits more than the canadian dollar from dollar weakness however you still have two commodity currencies so the market could like aussie cad gets a bit choppy but if you're comparing this to aussie cad what would be better probably this because of AUDNZD to the downside so if you all can trade this any correction in this market should be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the upside the target set 0.9105 NZDCHF is structured to the downside and this market is quite choppy we've seen already the new zealand dollar has quite a bit of strength against a number of the currencies so i would filter this out i don't want to really be short in NZDCHF next week i wouldn't be completely surprised to see it reverse higher that's what you would expect to see NZDCHF drifting higher as the dollar rolls over or you see a weakness so i don't want to trade this market next week in all likelihoods i won't trade it but if you are looking to trade it the opportunity would be from the area we're currently sitting down to the next care support to the downside 0.6441 i'd much prefer to trade dollar weak pairs next week than NZDCHF personally and last but not least we have CADCHF last week i was looking for further declines into the 0.7274 we took out that target that was pretty much the low of the week last week in this market very simply put going to this week i think that this market could actually start to get corrected because if we start see oil pushing higher the canadian dollar pushing higher this is going to struggle so any moves to the downside could be capped i think there are better opportunities out there if you want to trade this market any pullback would be viewed as the opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next ko supports the downside the target set 0.7189 so that is it for me for this week guys those are the markets that i'm looking to trade primarily AUDJPY, EURJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY and USDCAD and you can see the theme there really being dollar weakness yen weakness and therefore that kind of reflationary structure that kind of reflationary book as we start to see safe haven currencies like the dollar like the yen weakening and commodity currencies like the aussie like the new zealand and also the canadian dollar strengthening i do outside of those like all of the dollar weak pairs across the board including XAUUSD next week as well so outside of those pairs i will also be keeping an eye on all of the other dollar pairs so i hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2021-04-26 10:00
