Weekly Forex Forecast (23/05/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (23/05/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope as always   you're having a fantastic weekend last week was a  bit of a boring week we corrected in pretty much   all of the markets we looked at so in today's  video we're going to have a quick look back at   last week what happened last week in the markets  why it happened and what does it mean coming   into this week and when we look at the scorecards  today there's quite a bit of information embedded   in those scores hidden into next week so with that  said let's get into today's video starting with a   brief look at the economic calendar because there  are a couple of important events coming up we do   have an interest rate decision out of new zealand  on wednesday so in terms of the new zealand pairs   i will only be focused on trading the new zealand  pairs that we're looking at in today's video from   wednesday onwards because we know statistically  you're probably going to get the new zealand pairs   doing nothing into this interest rate decision  and then the opportunity is likely to come from   wednesday into the back end of the week on  the new zealand pairs we also have a bit of   preliminary gdp dates coming out of the us but  because it's later on in the week this is not   really anything we need to plan around but that  can affect the markets and i think you're going   to see some volatility around this but again as i  said not something we really need to plan trades   around and if we just jump ahead a week you can  see we also have coming up not this coming week   but the following week an interest rate decision  out of canada now last week when we looked at   scorecards you'll see we had a softening of the  canadian dollar in fact cash drinks relatively   speaking was something was looking at last  week and it may be the case that the cad pairs   continue to consolidate or correct into this  interest rate decision now if that's the case   the cad pairs are not going to be preferable  markets to be trading over the next two weeks   because if there's no volatility and they just  correct very much like we had last week there's   no real trading opportunities in those pairs so  just something to bear in mind we will look at the   cad pairs but because of this i would not go too  crazy with risk in the cad pairs i'd probably only   be looking to trade one if a nice setup appears  in any of the cad pairs that we look at today   so apart from that there's really nothing else  we need to pay attention to we do have non-farm   payrolls that week as well but nothing we need  to pay attention to heading into next week okay   so looking at the scorecards heading into next  week and there's quite a bit of information here   now the first thing to note is that generally  speaking the markets corrected last week   and when you're looking at the scorecards here we  tend to have three outcomes of the scorecards the   first is a winning week which is where the markets  move in the direction of the scorecards projecting   and that happens usually within the week the  second outcome is what i would term a corrective   week which is where very similar to what we had  last week in the us dollar the market doesn't move   in that direction that single week however the  bias is unchanged and it tends to move in that   direction after maybe two or three weeks and the  reason for that is just because it engages in a   larger correction or it corrects to a high degree  or on a higher time frame and the confirmation   of a corrective week is or tends to be what we're  looking at here which is where the u.s dollar   has corrected and pulled back but it retains  its score it hasn't actually weakened overall   in the macro framework and this is telling us that  the probabilities lie with a continuation to the   upside in the dollar and we should be treating the  pullback last week simply as a better opportunity   to get long in the us dollar and the third  outcome really of the scorecards is when you have   a reversal week or the market or markets change  in the opposite directions we're looking at and   that tends to be confirmed by what we saw in the  swiss franc last week we were kind of bearish and   we have now flipped to neutral but you can see the  score itself has increased and this is a warning   going into next week to say yes we should be still  looking to retain that bullish bias in the dollar   however in terms of swiss franc weakness we should  now be reconsidering that and so swiss franc   shorts are off the table for me heading into  this week and in fact when we go through the   markets themselves because we have some momentum  in the swiss franc moving from right to left i am   prepared to look at a couple of opportunities  namely pound frank new zealand frank and also   eurofranc but the slight issue with the swiss  franc heading into this week although i'm   prepared to look at those markets on a relative  basis this week the swiss franc itself as we will   see in a bit very much like the canadian dollar  we looked at previously it's not strong in and   of itself it's just currently strong relative  to other currencies the second thing to notice   here is that the euro has actually decreased  its score from neutral to -1 and we discussed   this in previous videos that the fact the euro  was kind of neutral and the dollar was strong   those two things don't really go to together  and one of those has to give and we were kind   of preempting in previous videos the euro shifting  from a more neutral position down towards a more   bearish position and that the dollar strength was  going to hold up not the near-term euro strength   that has been the case and so again very much  like the dollar remaining plus three this just is   confirmation going into this week of holding that  dollar long by us and continuing to hold that euro   bearish buyers heading into next week and the  final thing here really to note is that the pound   has weakened from minus two to minus three so this  is confirmation again even though the pound pairs   corrected somewhat last week we should still be  holding that short bias unlike the swiss franc   and we also had the new zealand dollar weakening  however just bear in mind we have that interest   rate decision so i'm really only going to trade  the new zealand pairs from wednesday onwards so   that's really just unpacking what took place  last week we actually had a combination almost   of a corrective week in terms of the dollar and  the pound and also somewhat the euro pairs but   the swiss franc pairs are something we should not  really be looking at shorting going into this week   in my opinion and also potentially even reversing  that bias if we get some good opportunities in   those pairs which we're going to look at so to  summarize here the us dollar pairs are still   the best long positions the pound pairs are  still in my opinion the best short positions and   we should just treat those corrections in those  markets last week as a better opportunity to get   involved in those and just be patient instead of  those markets moving in one week maybe they move   next week or they move over the next two weeks and  you can also see outside of that there is really   less opportunities in the markets heading  into next week and this will be reflected   in the best pairs highlighted when we look at  the markets themselves and you'll see really   my main focus is going to be on those dollar  strength plays heading into next week okay so   let's have a look at the individual currencies  first before we move on to the markets next week   and start with the dollar you can see the  dollar just corrected one two three four   five and we actually pulled back to the major  breakout level of the 102.992 so as it stands   really this is just a pullback and a retest this  retest here was so close that this is really just   if you look on the bigger picture we're going  to look at the weekly in a second but this was   more just a candle wick whereas this is more of a  pullback and a re-test as it currently stands the   macro scorecards are clearly telling us to remain  bullish and they've kept us on the right side of   this all the way throughout this year but looking  at this in the daily chart just allows us to look   at the bigger picture you can see quite clearly  this is just a near-term correction here and so   i think patience is required on the dollar and  i do still favor dollar long positions because   this market is technically bullish as well  as being fundamentally the strongest currency   heading into next week and you can see just  quickly if i zoom out to the weekly here   this was the major breakout level which we started  to pull back and re-test and one down candle or   one red week does not a trend change make so  really just underscoring here that what took   place last week was a larger correction back to  retest the major breakout level of the 102.992 and   i am going to be looking for opportunities to the  upside in dxy as my priority and the main place to   be making money next week next is the euro the  euro also pulled back as we had to pull back in   the dx y but you can see this is quite telling  the euro itself has still not breached the major   breakout level we've discussed in previous videos  of the 1.06710 there is no chance of the euro   making any major reversal to the upside unless  it can get back above the 1.06710 significantly  

and as it currently stands that is not the case  maybe we come back and re-test this next week   but i see no reason to change the bias and  in fact when we look at the macro framework   we actually had a weakening of the euro and when  you have technically a market correcting like this   and at the same time the scorecard is doing the  opposite the vast majority of the time that market   is going to resolve itself in the direction of  the forward-looking scorecards so i am bearish   on the euro i'm viewing this just simply as a  pullback and a better opportunity to look for   short positions next is the pound the pound has  also corrected and again i'm just simply viewing   this as a near-term bear flag and any continuation  is viewed as an opportunity to look for a reversal   down to the 1.2081 this move down towards the next  target will of course be reflected in the pound   pairs themselves next is the swiss franc now this  is what caused the slight issue last week because   we were looking at the swiss franc to the downside  however the market because it had such a steep   sell-off we had a very sharp reversal this kind of  v bottom does not happen very often in the markets   so i still only view this as a near-term  correction in the swiss franc however   because this is so sharp if the swiss  franc continues to correct like this   and other currencies like the pound do this  then you're still going to see markets like   pound frank moving to the downside even though  when you compare this to say the dollar the swiss   franc is not a particularly strong currency in  and of itself so this is why i will be looking   at some of the frank pairs like pound frank  the downside new zealand france and downside   eurofranc to the downside on the basis that if  we get a continued correction the swiss franc   will relatively outperform those currencies but  just bear in mind it's not highlighted as one   of the best because this is not showing  inherent strength like the us dollar is   so that's why the dollar pairs are highlighted in  gold as the best pairs to look to make money next   week in my opinion next is the yen i highlighted  in previous videos that the yen has broken   the major breakout level here and this is just  simply correcting as it stands and we're in all   likelihood going to come back and retest the major  breakout level before potentially continuing lower   so although this is kind of bullish to neutral i  don't think the yen is a great place to be long   because first a corrective move tends to be as  the name suggests corrective you don't get strong   impulsive moves in that direction and so any  moves in the japanese yen pairs for example   they run the risk of being kind of choppy and  corrective reflecting what we're seeing here   and the second reason i'm not enamored with  japanese yen long positions despite the fact   we have some near-term strength here is because  of the boj and their super aggressive bond buying   which of course is in and of itself devaluing  the n so a any yen long positions are corrective   b they fly in the face of the actions of the boj  so i would still personally prefer to wait for the   scorecards to resolve one way or the other for the  japanese gem because they're currently neutral and   then we start looking at the m pairs again next  is the canadian dollar now similar to what we just   discussed in the swiss franc we've been looking  at canadian dollar long positions and actually   they've been working very very well up to last  week last week the canadian dollar softened for   the first time in scorecards and the cad pairs  we're looking at just corrected they didn't go   anywhere and heading into this week you can see  we may be set now for the next leg down in the   canadian dollar if that's the case along with the  fact that the canadian dollar score has softened   and we have the interest rate decision coming up  in two weeks time we can look at the cad pairs   just on a relative basis but they go right to the  bottom of my list even less interested in the cad   pairs this week than the swiss franc pairs and the  swiss franc pairs as we just looked at aren't even   particularly strong they're just a relative play  so we will look at the cad pairs but just bear in   mind everything we've discussed maybe i'll be  looking at taking one good position in the cad   pairs if the opportunity arises but not much  more than that next is the australian dollar   the australian dollar is forming a classic bear  flag here and this correction looks like it's   going to come to an end before further declines  that would be reflected in aussie dollar to the   downside so i am going to be interested in  looking at that although i prefer the others   because they're weaker and the new zealand dollar  finally also displays the same kind of bear flag   characteristics but just bear in mind we have  that interest rate decision on wednesday so what   i would like to see is either the market comes  out rallies on wednesday and then starts to roll   over like this in which case i'll be looking to be  short or the market corrects and then on wednesday   you get the break out like this and you get  strong move in the direction and then that   opportunity will arise from wednesday onwards  as well so i like new zealand shorts but   we'll have to be looking at those as interest rate  decision trades from wednesday onwards next week   okay so let's move on to the markets themselves  where are the best opportunities in my opinion   heading into next week last week we took out the  target in crude oil at one one three eight eight   and so think about this we took out the target we  were correct in the forecast of crude oil and yet   with a strong relative score the canadian dollar  still failed to perform last week so why is that   again this just tells me that this is most likely  money coming out of the canadian dollar volatility   being reduced in the canadian dollar before  the interest rate decision in two weeks so in   all honesty i mean i like to put more markets  in here for a bit of variety and mix things up   the chances of me trading the cad pairs  personally speaking next week are very slim   if you want to trade the cad pairs when we look  at them it's entirely up to you i almost certainly   won't be taking trades in the cad pairs i will  almost certainly be focused on trading these   dollar pairs here and perhaps pound frank the  cad pairs will come into play almost certainly   once again once that interest rate decision  takes place not this week but the week after   so any pullback here in crude oil is  simply viewed as another opportunity   to look for bullish setups into the 118.20  next is pound dollar now when you have   these corrective weeks where the markets don't  really reverse but they just continue to correct   it's really a double-edged sword because yes you  don't get the opportunity necessarily to trade   nice strong impulsive moves that week but what  the market's doing is it's actually pulling back   to better prices and it's giving you much more  downside reward if you can be patient and wait for   a week or two so heading into this week based on  everything we looked at in the scorecards i still   prefer pound dollar shorts as my best play  heading into next week any continued pullback   is going to be viewed as an opportunity once again  to look for bearish reversals and i'm going to be   looking first of all down to the previous lows and  then on to the 1.2081 so pound dollar shorts are  

my number one play that i'm going to be focused  on next week next is EURUSD, EURUSD corrected last   week as we have the correction in the dxy and  again as this market corrected we had the euro   weakening the score cards that is a bonafide  sell signal from the scorecards when you have   the technicals doing the opposite as i said the  vast majority of the time not always nothing's 100   but the vast majority of the time the market will  resolve itself in the direction of the forward   looking scorecards so any continued pullback in  euro dollar perhaps we come back and re-test this   level once again who knows but any pullback is  considered another opportunity to look for bearish   reversals and a breakout of this trend or this  counter trend i should say and any reversal is   going to be views an opportunity to start to look  for shorts into the 1.0341 my third favorite play   is new zealand dollar new zealand dollar is  also just correcting in this bear flag over here   and any continued pullback is viewed and i  expect new zealand dollar probably to do nothing   between now and wednesday what i would like to  see then on wednesday we are expected a potential   interest rate hike which of course you would  think theoretically is bullish for the new zealand   dollar because it is in theory however very often  you can get the markets discount in these moves   and if this move up here is discounting that  interest rate rise then you can very often   see the opposite come out so you can see the  market let's say the reserve bank of new zealand   hikes rates next week but what happens is you  get a whip saw and then it breaks lower like this   and that opportunity from wednesday onwards if  we get this sell-off breaking out of this counter   trend on wednesday and we'll look for a pullback  and i'm going to look for shorts into the tail   end of next week down to the 0.6158 so that's  my third favorite pair heading into next week   but as i said i'm only going to be focused on this  from wednesday onwards this is an interest rate   decision setup and i like to wait most of the  time till after that takes place and trade the   follow-through that's when you'll have the least  amount of risk next is aussie dollar i do also   like aussie dollar i think there's a good chance  we continue down to the target at the 0.6812   it's not highlighted as one of the best simply  because it scores us kind of bullish to neutral   in the scorecard so i much prefer pound dollar  euro dollar new zealand dollar but i also   think there's a good chance i mean if these  three come down almost certainly we're going   to see aussie dollar coming down as well so any  continued pullback in aussie dollar is simply   viewed as it currently stands as an opportunity  you can see we're re-testing over here to look   for bearish breakout i'm going to be looking  down towards the next key of support 0.6812   okay so moving on to the swiss franc pairs and  again just bear in mind you're playing a relative   game when you're looking at the swiss franc pairs  here same with the cad pairs and so they're not as   good opportunities as when you have an outright  strong currency versus weak one that's why   this is my preferred set heading into next week  but pound franc is an interesting one because we   had a very big sell-off to the downside and you  can see we actually have a major range in pound   franc and this is in an overall downtrend so this  kind of momentum i mean any pullback in this area   is going to be viewed as an opportunity or should  be if you use an opportunity to look for a bearish   breakout down towards the next key of support  to the downside 1.1913 out of all of these other  

markets outside of the dollar pairs we're going  to be looking at pound frank to the downside is   probably my number one let's say alternative  setup outside of the best pairs next week   next is new zealand frank it's highlighted in blue  because it's an interest rate decision next week   and any pullback in this market is viewed as  an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts   say we get that bearish reversal on the interest  rate decision itself i'm going to be looking down   towards the next q supports downside at 0.6169  now usually with interest rate decisions we look   for setups both ways going into next week i'm  only really interested in new zealand's short   positions if it comes out the opposite and we get  a really strong rally and these markets reverse   i just won't trade the new zealand pairs at all  next week so i'm either short new zealand pairs   from the interest rate decision or i'm going to be  doing nothing in their new zealand pairs next week   next is euro franc eurofrank is also an  opportunity that can be considered next week   really strong momentum to the downside any  pullback in this area would be viewed as an   opportunity to look for bearish reversals into  the 1.0214 and last and in this case also least   the cad pairs because of reasons discussed any  pullback in this market continued is going to be   viewed simply as an opportunity to look  for further declines to the downside   going to be looking down to the 1.5737 next is  new zealand cad we are also correcting and again   you can very often see this being discounted  or this is the discounting of the interest rate   decision next week so any break lower like this  on the interest rate decision would be considered   an opportunity to look for shorts into the  0.8016 but the question has to be asked if   you do get this breakdown then why not trade new  zealand dollar or even new zealand frank over and   above new zealand cad next week that would be my  personal preference and finally we have eurocad   now the interesting thing about eurocad i actually  like eurocad to the downside i mentioned this last   week keep an eye on this market i think there  is really quite a strong probability of further   declines in this market but the question is are we  just going to correct into that canadian interest   rate decision for a couple of weeks and then on  that interest rate decision break down like this   and start to get the bigger move to the downside  so i do still think as i mentioned last week   eurocad is a really good short but it just becomes  a question of timing we may have to wait until   that canadian interest rate decision not this week  the week after before we get the big break down   in eurocad so i like eurocad i would be focused on  shorts but for next week maybe you just have to be   a little bit patient on this market but keep this  one in mind because i do think we're about to see   further declines in this market in the next couple  of weeks okay so wrapping up with gold silver and   bitcoin if we look at the gold silver ratio you  can see although i'm bearish on both gold and   silver i am still preferably bearish on silver i  prefer silver shorts over gold shorts gold is out   performing silver currently and it does look  like it has further upside as well so i favor   silver shorts heading into next week still over  gold shorts if we look at gold gold really just   corrected like a number of the dollar pairs  last week away from its target and i am just   still viewing this simply as a better opportunity  to start to look for a breakdown in this market   and once we start to reverse that is going to  be opportunity to start short into the 1780.35  

next is silver i've highlighted silver with a  XauUsd tab to highlight the fact that this is   one of my preferred setups heading into next week  what i really like about this is the 2145 was the   major breakout in silver it has come back and  retested this and what actually happened was it   broke above it last week pulled back and tested  it and it started to trade away from this level   now the reason i like that is because there are  clearly to my eye a number of traders here who   are likely to get trapped if this continues  lower and the people who bought this kind of   pull back to this major breakout level they're  all going to be trading with stop losses here   and so next week what i see is a very good setup  we start to break down back below the 2145 in   XagUsd like this and take out the low you're going  to see these people start to capitulate you may   see a small relief rally and that would provide a  nice head and shoulder set up in silver and that   would be the opportunity to come down to the 1966.  even better if it breaks lower like this and the   right shoulder simply pulls back to re-test the  2145 that would be a great setup into the 1966. so   look out for this next week but any break lower  of this counter trend rally and also the 2145   is going to be an opportunity to start to  look for shorts in silver in my opinion   and last but not least is bitcoin i did highlight  in previous videos the major breakout of 32935   and i said in previous videos bitcoin is in  trouble i've been short bitcoin for a while here   and heading into last week we did sell off  hard towards the 24 307 target but we kind of   whipped here and we pulled back the market is  now correcting underneath this major breakout   level very similar to the euro there is going  to be no major reversal in bitcoin unless it   can get above the 32 935 because this is a major  break to the downside that has to be reversed   for any larger uptrend to take place in bitcoin  so any pullback in this market perhaps we even   come back and re-test the major breakout level  but any pullback is simply viewed once again   as an opportunity to look for shorts into the  overall target to the downside at the 24-307   so that is it for me for this week guys as  always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank you to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next week   the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-05-23 14:09

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