Weekly Forex Forecast (22/11/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
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hey traders it's john fortune here with this week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a great weekend we're going to kick off as we always do by having a quick review of the key events heading into next week i'm also going to look at some of the events from last week specifically that cpi print out of the uk and the effect it had on the pound we're then going to look at the score cards for this week and last week those score cards really put us in front of the best moves euro dollar highlighted as the best trade to the downside and it was the best performing pair last week we're then going to move on to our individual currency analysis we're going to look at the individual currencies in the futures markets and see how they align with our scoring system before moving on to the currency pair selections we're going to look at the strongest versus the weakest currency pairs and we're going to finish as we always do by looking at stocks gold silver and bitcoin so the different parts of the video are indexed and time stamped for you below however i do strongly recommend watching the whole video because all of these different pieces of the puzzle are interlinked and we link all of these pieces of the puzzle together throughout the video so let's start off by having a quick look at the key events we need to pay attention to which came out this week and also are coming out next week the pieces of data that were highlighted in previous video that we need to pay attention to were primarily the cpi data which came out this week in the form of the uk cpi data on wednesday and also the canadian cpi data now the canadian cpi data came out pretty much as expected there wasn't really any reaction to this and this is not really something that we need to pay attention to this week the uk cpi data came out hotter or higher than expected and also over a full percentage point higher than it was previously so what we saw and somebody was asking about this in the last video in the comment section what we saw was a rally in the pound and the question was why is this the case well when you're looking at news events and you're looking at economic data you have to remember the markets are discounted mechanisms they discount the present and they look to the future so when you see a higher inflation print yes this is technically right now bearish for the pound because higher inflation is indicative of a weaker currency however the currency rises instead of falls because traders are looking ahead to the central bank reaction function to that data so they're saying well yes inflation is high now so the central bank is going to have to raise rates or taper faster or whatever it is and so as a result the pound rises in anticipation of future central bank monetary policy reactions to the data so this is why we saw a jump in the pound last week and this is why this is one of the pieces of data that we look at the cpi data the inflation data when we do the economic analysis like we're doing right now at the beginning of the video so that's really the only thing that we need to look at for this week and heading into the next week if we go and have a look at the data coming out next week you can see there is the new zealand interest rate decision which was highlighted in last week's video that we need to pay attention to and as a result in fact the new zealand didn't really go anywhere last week if you saw the new zealand dollar and this is in anticipation of the rbnz statement and policy decision on the november 24th which happens to be my birthday and so this is really a piece of data we have to pay attention to going into this week because if you start to trade new zealand dollar pairs before wednesday they're probably not going to go anywhere and when we go through the trading plan this week that i have i will be focused on new zealand pairs from wednesday onwards looking for moves in the direction of the analysis or the chance we have and that's going to be how i'm going to play the new zealand pairs this week we also have preliminary gdp data coming out of the us which can move the markets and can cause movements but it's not really something we have to plan for in advance uh like we do with the uh interest rate decision out of new zealand and apart from that yes there are other pieces of data manufacturing pmis these are all important in terms of macro outlook but there's nothing we really need to pay attention to on a short-term trading basis perhaps the core pce price index is something as well just like with the cpi data last week that we can see markets moving but even with the pound last week you don't tend to get reversals in trends with the cpi data and i wouldn't be surprised to see the pound revert to being a fairly weak currency in the coming weeks so the big takeaway heading into next week is expect some potential volatility in the dollar pairs or dollar base pairs on wednesday with gdp print also with the core pce print but it's really the new zealand interest rate decision we really need to pay attention to and we want to avoid new zealand pairs between now and wednesday unless of course you want to get involved in a new zealand trade in anticipation of what's going to come in the race statement but just bear in mind that's a high risk high reward scenario because if it goes against you it's going to be volatile so there is expected to be an interest rate rise out of new zealand we'll see if that materializes and if it does we'll see how we can capitalize on that from wednesday onwards being the safest way to play this in my opinion so let's have a look at the scorecards coming into this week the us dollar is still the strongest currency followed by the cad and we have actually seen an increase in the strength of new zealand last week that's interesting you don't usually see too much activity before an interest rate decision either way i still don't think it's a fantastic idea to trade the new zealand pairs before wednesday i prefer to take less risk less reward in other words to smooth out the volatility of returns so as i said i'll be playing the new zealand pairs from wednesday onwards the pound actually did strengthen last week off of that cpi print and this was somewhat meaningful strengthening of the pound because it is a neutral currency this week it means that after being short the pound for a good few weeks and actually having a really nice self in the pound we really capitalized on that sell-off it's now time maybe just to be a bit patient on the pound and look into other currencies we also saw the japanese yen weakening slightly which is good for the potential fifth waves we've been looking at in previous videos which haven't yet materialized are still correcting but it'll be interesting to see if the yen weakens more this week and the swiss franc has also weakened along with the euro which was identified as the best short last week and you can see we are now at minus three out of minus four really telling us the euro is once again the weakest currency and further downside in the euro is something we want to pay attention to and seems likely so all in all the takeaways going into this week the us dollar is still my favorite long the canadian dollar is the second favorite long but we do have crude oil selling off slightly which is going to have an effect on the canadian dollar a negative effect somewhat so we do need to pay attention to that and it's one of the reasons in fact why the us dollar is my favorite currency the new zealand dollar is my third favorite long position and this is also with the anticipated increase in interest rates this week but again we'll see if that materializes if we can get some of those new zealand long positions after the interest rate decision that would be fantastic the yen the frank and the aussie are all weak however they're not super weak like the pound was or the euro was last week or like the euro is this week so i do favor shorts in those positions but just bear in mind they're kind of bearish to neutral and out of those ones the aussie would be my preferred short outside of the euro since first and foremost it's the most exposed to the us dollar so when the us dollar rises as a rule of thumb you would expect to sell off the most and as we looked at last week and we'll look again this week we do have iron oil prices selling off hard which usually drags the australian dollar down with it so euro aussie and my favorite shorts going into this week and the us dollar and potentially the new zealand dollar long positions would be my favorite if we can get that increase in interest rates on wednesday and we start to see the new zealand dollar rallying and we can look for some follow-through in the new zealand pairs so when we go and look at the charts we can look at EURUSD to the downside once again he's going to be my favorite currency pair this week i'll be looking also at eurcad i'll be looking at euro new zealand to the downside will be a great currency pair to keep an eye on coming into wednesday if we do get a strengthening that is absolutely going to be my first go-to currency pair on wednesday i am also interested in AUDUSD to the downside once again AUDCAD to the downside and also AUDNZD to the downside so if we do get a strengthening of the new zealand dollar on wednesday AUDNZD will be the second pair outside of EURNZD to the downside i would be very interested in looking at and we can also again look at the frank and yen pairs vis-a-vis the us dollar the canadian dollar and the new zealand dollar but just bear in mind as i said they're not as weak as the euro and the aussie and finally with the pound being absolutely neutral going into this week i would prefer to wait on the pound and just see where it's going to head next wait for it to strengthen or weaken in one direction or the other before looking to get involved in pound positions personally speaking so i think the pound after a number of weeks of good declines is now a bit of a wait and see currency so let's now have a look at the individual currency starting with the dollar index the dollar index was the best long currency highlight in last week's video and we had a really nice rally taking out the target at the 95 74. it doesn't look to me like this rally is over perhaps we come down at the start of next week and we start to correct a bit more but with this momentum breaking out of this previous correction over here this is indicative of further advances in the us dollar in the coming week or next couple of weeks so any pullback in this area in the dxy simply as it stands is viewed as a correction i'm going to be looking for further advances in to the 96.79 so us dollar index long positions looking like one of the best plays going into next week next is the euro so inversely really to what we just looked at in the dxy highlighted as the best short position going into last week euro and we had a really really nice sell-off anybody who was short euro got paid handsomely last week and we finished the week right at the second target i mean that was almost the low of the week in euro now the reason why i put the levels on the individual currencies as well is not just to have a look at the individual currencies in terms of strength and weakness but it's also to help with market timing if when you see the euro for example trading into the 1.12720 the second target that is a good sign that in the currency pairs the euro currency pairs you're probably going to start to see a bit of correction as the euro snaps back so going into this week i am still bearish on the euro because we had such a nice sell-off don't be surprised to see a bit of a correction first any pullback in this market is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for euro short positions down to the 1.11 920. next is the pound now the pound was highlighted to bearish currency last week and i am still looking at this i mean this is bearish here we had this big double top breakdown over here which i highlighted in previous videos so technically speaking this is a bearish chart but because of the cpi print last week we started to pull back so looking at this you can see yes the pound is neutral but i certainly wouldn't be looking to go and put lots of pound long positions on or belong the pound in any significant way next week because this is not a particularly strong currency and the only pound long position i might consider although there is a good argument to say that any pound one positions next week is not a good idea but the only one i might consider would be euro pound because the euro is so weak heading into next week so i am looking for the declines in the pound but perhaps we even come back a little bit more next week so generally speaking out of the pound pairs going into this week i think there are better currencies to trade next is the swiss franc now the swiss franc broke down last week and we've come down and taken out the targets here at the 1.0755 and this was after a failed breakout
to the downside which i highlighted previously and i still have on here and then an inverse head and shoulders which has now failed so you can see this is kind of a neutral currency it's kind of been bullish to neutral and now it's kind of bearish to neutral it's not out and out bearish like the euro but with the failure to the upside and the resumption of this head and shoulders breakout over here because we resumed this as we started to break down below the 1.08280 also with the fact the SNB is overall looking to devalue the swiss franc i do like swiss franc short positions here and now we've broken back in direction of the bigger head and shoulders reversal in this direction we have the s b wind in our sails short swiss franc pairs are probably going to be quite attractive over the next month or so so we did come down and take out the target set in the swiss franc last week heading into this week what i'll be looking for in the swiss franc is any pullback into the previous head and shoulder confirmation area down here this would be an opportunity to look for further declines in the swiss franc down to the 1.0696 so overall bearish on the swiss franc going into this week next is the japanese yen now the japanese yen is a very interesting one for those of you who follow the forecast on a regular basis you will know that we got short on the japanese yen over in this area and we had a really nice sell-off really capitalizing on this sell-off in the japanese yen and then we turned neutral down in this area as the scoring system showed us we're a bit overextended in the japanese yen well we did come down and take out the target set last week and we are now making new lows so i am bearish on the japanese yen but not extremely bearish it's kind of bearish to neutral it's rated minus one out of minus four we know once we get to two or minus two or three or minus three this is the kind of sweet spot where we want to be for strong or weak currencies a plus one or a minus one is kind of bullish and bearish to neutral and if you have a maximum minus four or plus four which is what we had down here this was where we had the japanese yen scoring minus four and this signaled the fact we were probably going to see a correction in profit taking so at minus one the japanese yen is bearish but it's not super bearish and in fact this could even be a one two three four and this could be a fifth way we could start to get a little bit corrective however i don't like to second guess the process whenever i do that i tend to be wrong and the process tends to be right so i would be interested in keeping an eye on yen short positions going into this week and we will have a look again at the yen setups we've looked at in previous videos and just been keeping an eye on next is the canadian dollar now the canadian dollar is structured to the downside and you may look at this and say well why is the canadian dollar rated as a plus two and again because when you look at the insides of these currencies essentially when you look at data it's relatively stronger than the other currencies and this is why we put the individual currency analysis and the scoring system together because without that scoring system you may be inclined to think that this is a short so looking at the individual currencies you can see dollar long positions are the most attractive play out of the us dollar and the canadian dollar but relatively speaking although we took out the target to the downside last week in the canadian dollar this is actually a stronger currency than some of the others so i would favor canadian dollar long positions but looking at this and looking at the fact crude oil is selling off i would not go too hard on cad long positions maybe just one cad long trade if you want to diversify your setups a little bit i wouldn't go you know too crazy on cad long positions because the cad itself is not super bullish it's just relatively bullish compared to the other currencies so for that reason i do favor the us dollar to the upside next is australian dollar the australian dollar we were looking for further declines to the downside last week after this failure to break above the inverse head and shoulders we took out the target set and i did highlight in last week's video as well the sell-off in iron ore iron ore looks like it's coming down to the 8510 looks like we're set for further declines and as iron r sells off this tends to drag the australian dollar with it so going into this week i am once again bearish on the australian dollar it's my second favorite short outside of the euro and any pullback in this market will be viewed as an opportunity to look for further declines into the 0.71780 and finally the new zealand dollar the new zealand dollar is currently bearish in terms of how it is technically structured after also failing the inverse head and shoulders break out higher this inverse head and shoulders has not yet completely failed because we're still making higher highs and higher lows and if we get the raisin of interest rates we may see the new zealand rallying and if it breaks back up through this level this would be a start or a trend change to the upside so look out for this going into next week and if we do start to get this although it's technically bearish at the moment if we get a reversal on the interest rate decision that is going to be the sign to start to look for those new zealand long positions in for example EURNZD and AUDNZD so that's how the individual currencies are setting up going into this week confirming once again that the us dollar index is the best long and the euro is in fact the best short okay so let's drop down to the four hour chart here and look at the actual currency pairs themselves starting with the EURUSD market which was my favorite pair last week and it is again my favorite pair to the downside this week we did take out the target at the 1.13710 and we came very close to the 1.1241 this was highlighted green last week what did that signify
as i said last week this was a high conviction target i do think when you see these green levels there's a higher than normal conviction that the markets are going to come to these levels so we did come down very close to the target we haven't taken out yet which is great because for anybody not involved it means there's a chance you can get involved before we take this target out any pullback in EURUSD next week is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals and short positions down to the next care of support to the downside the target set the one two four one and if we break through here we're looking down to the next key of support at the 1.1146 so fantastic pair from last week and i will be keeping my eye on this as a priority going into next week next is eurcad because we're looking at the euro pairs to the downside so euro weakness as a primary or as the top theme for next week now in the previous video i did highlight the fact that eurcad was a good short to the downside and i noted that we were setting up a head and shoulders reversal to the downside the currency strength scoring system has thrown this market back up to us now and it's suggesting we may finally get a break in eurcad to the downside if we look at this technically what's very interesting is we have a developing head and shoulders which is a bearish reversal pattern and it looks like we are now setting up further declines pretty much from where we sit i noted that we had somewhat the left shoulder here this was the head and this was the pullback that we should be looking for potential short positions we came down and we turned right at the second target so a great trading opportunity highlighted in last week's video going into this week i am still looking for the declines in this market any pullback any continued pullback is simply viewed as another opportunity to start to look for bearish reversals in this market down to the next kiev support which we just missed at 1.4172 and if we can break through here i'm going to be looking down towards target two at the 1.4057 and the final euro short position that we're going to be looking at here because we will look at EURNZD as well but that's going to be specifically a new zealand interest rate decision setup so taking out that market the final euro short position i would be looking at is euro pound we discussed this at the beginning of the video that it's not the best setup because the pound is currently neutral and when we look at the individual currency of the pound it's still trending to the downside so it's not particularly bullish it's just slightly more bullish relative to the other currencies we did take out a previous target set to the downside at the 0.84160. and so going into this
week any pullback in this market would be viewed as a potential opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next key of support to the downside the target set 0.8349 as i say though i do much prefer euro dollar to the downside and eurcad to the downside over EURGBP shorts moving on to the dollar pairs starting with AUDUSD which is my second favorite market after EURUSD to the downside we did come down and we took out the target set in last week's video so AUDUSD was a nice short set up and a short opportunity from last week coming into this week i am still bearish on this market we already discussed the fact that iron ore is dragging down the price of the australian dollar and i do have a fairly high conviction target at the 0.7120 i do think we're going to be coming down to this in all probability in the coming month or so so with that in mind any pullback in this market is simply viewed as a bear flag opportunity set up any correction is looked at as counter trend as an opportunity therefore to simply look for bearish reversals in this market down to the next care of support to the downside 0.7177 and ultimately on to the 0.7120 where i do think there's a very good chance we come down to this target in the near future the next us dollar market i like is USDCHF we looked at the fact that the swiss franc had broken back down below the major head and shoulders reversal and it is looking bearish going into this week we've already started to flag so the swiss franc vis-a-vis the us dollar is actually looking like a pretty decent market going into next week and would be my favorite swiss franc pair going into next week we've broken above the previous high with momentum this really is a market that i actually like going into this week because looking at the technicals here we have a really nice ball flag the chances are that any continued pullback in this market is going to be met with a rally to new highs and i am going to be looking onto the next target at the 0.93 so if you want a conservative target on this look for the previous high but i do think we could come and see the 0.9370 in this market next week so alongside EURUSD the downside AUDUSD to the downside i would keep an eye on USDCHF to the upside as i think there's a good chance we get new highs in this market and the final dollar player we're going to look at is USDJPY now the whole time the yen pairs were just correcting and we'll look at these in a second they were just correcting moving sideways and a number of those yen pairs look like they're set for fifth waves i sent you to be patient on those yen pairs and if you wanted to trade the markets or i should say if you wanted to trade yen markets you should really look to USDJPY that was the market that you wanted to be looking to be involved with and that was the market that almost to the point came up and took out the target at the one one four seven thirty so as it currently stands i am still bullish on this market i view this head and shoulders break here just simply as the start of a correction a bigger abc and any continued pullback is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the 115.50 just bear in mind it's probably my least favorite
dollar pair i would much prefer to trade EURUSD, AUDUSD and also USDCHF before i trade USDJPY and actually i don't know why i said the final dollar pair because we have a couple more here let's look at GBPUSD, pound is structured to the downside this is simply a bear flag and in fact i would treat any continued pullback in this market simply as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next care of support to the downside at one point three two eight eight so even though the pound is neutral you're looking at a bullish currency in the dollar visa via neutral currency i do think there's a good chance we see further declines in pound dollar next week and the real final dollar pair going into this week is NZDUSD highlighted as a market which was set further declines last week we did come and take out the target at the 0.69820 almost to the pip and that was the move for last week in this market what i'm going to be looking for going into next week then and in fact i probably should have put this in with the new zealand pairs but we'll do it now if we fail to get because on the interest rate decisions really want the opportunity to play that interest rate decision both ways or either way if we fail to get an interest rate rise in the new zealand we could see the new zealand dollar selling off in that scenario if the market starts to correct and coming into wednesday we have a correction and then we fail to get an interest rate rise out of the royal bank of new zealand and on that failure to raise rates we see the new zealand selling off like this this is going to be a go-to currency for further declines to the downside in that scenario i'm going to be looking down towards the next key of support the 0.6886 so i do like new zealand to the downside but it's a new zealand interest rate decision setup and it's a failure to raise rates which would likely cause this further declines or catalyze further declines in this market so i like this setup but it will be from after wednesday or from wednesday onwards when the rate statement and the monetary policy statement takes place so let's move on to the canadian dollar pairs and we'll start off as we always do by looking at crude oil crude oil was a market that i highlighted to the downside last week i had noted previously that we started to reverse and we took out the target and that was pretty much the low of the week in fact in crude oil 76.85 so going into this week i do still favor especially with a stronger dollar further declines in crude oil i think crude oil to the downside is once again a good market and a good opportunity to look for so going into next week you can see we've got a bit of momentum coming in any pullback in this market is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for short positions down to the target set 74.46 note that a declining crude oil is having a negative effect on the canadian dollar when we look at the canadian dollar in and of itself but relatively the cad is stronger than the other currencies this was the same case as last week we saw a decline in crude oil we saw the canadian dollar futures market selling off but we still saw markets like eurcad declining to the downside and they were nice markers so to reiterate i favor first and foremost euro short positions followed by us dollar strength positions my second favorite theme next week and in third place is canadian dollar long positions so let's look at australian dollar canadian dollar eurcad to the downside of course being my favorite cad play which we've already looked at after that the australian dollar versus the canadian dollar this was a market highlighted to the downside last week and we did start to come to the downside so we didn't quite see the sell-off we saw in eurcad for example but that's not surprising because we noted the euro was the weaker of the two currencies last week more explosive and again going into this week i do still favor for anybody not already short short positions in this market so any pullback once again is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish setups down to the 0.9114 and if we can break through him we start to break this low over here i'm going to
be looking down towards target 2 at 0.9045 and the final cad pair we're going to look at this week is CADCHF i did note that the swiss franc is quite weak or setting up to be quite weak this week but look at the price action we're seeing here this market is quite choppy and that's because the canadian dollar is not the strongest currency and the swiss franc although it's weak is not the weakest currency so i much prefer us dollar swiss franc to the upside but CADCHF is a viable option it's just not the best one so any reversal to the upside in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for bullish setups i'm going to be looking up towards the next q resistance the outside the target set 0.7441 interesting to note we do have momentum coming into this market to the upside looks like this could even be a potential one wave and that's off the back of this triple bottom down here which was confirmed in this area and finally we're going to finish with the new zealand pairs so we've already looked at new zealand dollar to the downside let's go and have a look at EURNZD so EURNZD gives us the opportunity here to play the interest rate decision potentially both ways because we looked at new zealand dollar to the downside which would be a failure to raise interest rates we start to see the new zealand dollar selling off but what if the royal bank of new zealand comes out raises interest rates and we start to see a strength of the new zealand maybe they even raise interest rates greater than forecast i don't think that's likely but hypothetically let's say they do something which causes the new zealand dollar to rally then EURNZD to the downside would be my go-to currency pair in that scenario what i would like to see is this i'd like to see the market correct in between now and wednesday and if the market pulls back like this and then we start to see the new zealand dollar strengthening we see a breakout to the downside and i will be looking at further declines down to the 1.6029 and if we break through here down to the 1.5900 so this is a new zealand interest rate decision setup play on wednesday
and just those two pairs there give you the opportunity to play that interest rate decision both ways after the announcement is made and once the momentum if we're going to see momentum coming into the new zealand dollar either way takes place next is AUDNZD to the downside and again this would be very similar to what we just looked at with EURNZD this is a weak currency versus the new zealand dollar so this is going to be an increase in interest rates raising the interest rates or a hawkish interest rate decision and if we start to see that and we see a strengthening of the new zealand dollar what i would like to see is any pullback in this market between now and wednesday and we start to see the new zealand rallying we start to break to the downside this is going to be the opportunity to look further declines down to the 1.0606 and if we break through here down to target 2 which is set at 1.0226 and the final new zealand pair we can look at is GBPNZD now again i don't prefer this market because the pound is not as weak as EURNZD but i do have a high conviction target at the 1.8733 so going into next week and you can see we actually took out the previous
target here set almost to the pip i mean that was a really nice move down to the target here so any continued pullback going into wednesday is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts and that could be on the raising of interest rates any break to the downside is going to be viewed as an opportunity for further declines down to the 1.8733 so the pound is not as weak as euro and aussie but what interests me about this is i do have quite a high conviction target to the 1.8733 so three markets here in the event that we get a hawkish interest rate decision we see an increase in interest rates and we have that new zealand dollar to the downside set up if there's a failure to raise rates or for whatever reason we start see a big sell-off in new zealand from wednesday's meeting and finally we're going to look at the yen pairs here the yen pairs as noted in previous videos look to be setting up for potential fifth waves and i did say to you guys to be patient on this until we start to see the end weekend and it has started to weaken but you can see this is still corrective what we really want to see is we want to see the yen weakening and we want to see the market rallying like this we don't have to try and pick the bottom here let the market rally and as this pulls back like this for a right shoulder we can start to get involved somewhere in this area so i do still like these markets to the upside but i'd like to see a breakout of these flags first so patience required on the yen pairs once again we're just going to keep tabs on these NZDJPY this might be a market to come to on a hawkish or a raising of interest rates and we start seeing new zealand rallying that could very well catalyze the breakout to the upside and this would be an interest rate decision set up as well as the other ones we've looked at here based on a strengthening of the new zealand dollar so perhaps NZDJPY to the upside will be the first of these yen pairs to come into play next week we have CHFJPY which is not really a fantastic currency pair because the yen is weak or bit slightly bearish to neutral and the frank is slightly bearish neutral so i would leave that all together and the same applies for the AUDJPY as it currently stands out of those yen pairs yes it looks like we may be coming up to new highs but with a weaker aussie i would leave this completely so really the only yen pair i'd be interested in going to next week outside us dollar yen would probably be NZDJPY if we can get a rally to the upside off of the interest rate decision okay so let's wrap up with stocks gold silver and bitcoin starting with the spx now i noted in previous videos and in fact right back i believe it was the 30th of october in that weekly forex forecast i noted that the s p 500 was likely to start to correct and the upside essentially was limited compared to the downside now what's interesting we did slightly bounce and last week we kind of grinded to the upside in the spx but for anybody who has a portfolio you're trading individual stocks you'll know that last week although we grinded higher in spx a lot of the individual stocks were selling off we saw some financials selling off so some energy stocks selling off and i've noted really since the 30th of october pretty much this entire month that because the upside is limited in spx i would still have protection and i personally have protection in place because a deeper correction could very well be on the cards here and all of the data that i'm looking at and the process i use for stocks is telling me to keep protections in place and not to turn bullish or super bullish on stocks once again certainly not having just long positions in the stock market so going into this week i am still looking further advances overall in the s p 500 however it looks to me like this could still be in a correction i would not be surprised to see this pulling back first before rallying to new highs just correcting having a breather having to pause after this rally before moving on to the 47 49.90 so to summarize
my view across stocks the upside is limited in my opinion compared to the downside although the markets themselves are still technically bullish and as a result if you like to trade just the indices on their own i would be very careful about going along or being along the industry right here and if you're running a portfolio i would keep protections in place i personally still have my protections in place from the beginning of the month as i say because the risk of further declines in stocks outweighs in my opinion the reward of further advances in the stock market moving on to the nasdaq the nasdaq has rallied to new highs and it's coming towards the target set once again the chart is still technically bullish and i would be looking further advances into the 1671.74 but i do still think there are elevated downside risks in stocks as i said so i do think it's a good time to have those protections in place even when trading nasdaq stocks next is the dow jones now the dow jones has actually reversed to the downside and you can see that if you are long the dow jones i think this is a time to be patient if you're along the index itself because we could see further declines the other way this information is useful if you don't trade the indices outright and you're trading individual stocks if you are looking for stocks to be short then stocks within the dow jones industrial would be a good idea because the dow jones compared to the other indices is actually bearish right now technically so any pullback in this market i would be not surprised to see further declines the downside and the next target is a 35 322.09 so if you'd like to trade indices long only this would be an opportunity in my opinion to sit on the sidelines and be patient and if you're looking for potential short opportunities then stocks within dow jones looks like a good play right now next is the russell so the small cap the industry which is most sensitive to the business side called generally speaking we're also trending to the downside near term we are pulling back it looks to be just a correction however we don't know how deep the corrections can go this could easily pull back and it could continue down and we could even come down to the 2298 before heading higher so again underscoring the fact that protections really should be in place for a portfolio if you like to trade the russell outright i personally would wait in order to be long for a reversal back to the upside and i would take this bearish technical set up here just as i said to be an opportunity to sit on the sidelines and finally just as discussed with the dow jones here if you are looking for short opportunities short stocks within the russell 2000 would also be a good idea because the russell itself is more bearish than say the spx and also the nasdaq and the final stock market we're going to look at here is the nifty now the nifty did start to break higher last week and then it has immediately reversed and started to break to the downside so once again if you are trading the nifty and you like to be long only this would be a warning to me i would be out of this i wouldn't be prepared to hold on to this to see if it comes down any further and if you like to trade the nifty both ways i would be technically bearish on this but just remember shorting stocks especially not as part of a long short portfolio just outright shorting them is a little bit of a risky strategy and don't forget your wrist reward is actually not very good because your downside is only 100 which in the nifty is not going to happen whereas your upside is theoretically unlimited so i do think we could be seeing a head and shoulders pattern developing and any pullback in this area i would be looking further declines down to the 17 437.95 so caution advised on the nifty and finishing off with XAUUSD XAGUSD and bitcoin starting with gold gold was a market that i highlighted in previous videos we had this breakout to the upside momentum came in looks like we're in a potential third wave however the stronger dollar has been capping moves to the upside over the last week i am still bullish on XAUUSD and you can see we did take out the target set almost to the point at the one eight six nine point nine five as it currently stands any pullback in XAUUSD is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals i'm going to be looking up towards the next q resistance the upside in the target set the 1890.1 next is XAGUSD XAGUSD is another market i've been highlighting to the upside despite the fact we've had a stronger dollar we did come quite close to the target and we started to pull back as it currently stands this just looks like a ball flag what i would like to see is any deep correction in this market would be viewed as an opportunity once again to look for bullish reversals just as we saw over here in this inverse head and shoulders are highlighted any break to the upside would be viewed an opportunity to look for further advances to the 25.60 and last but not least we have bitcoin now bitcoin did reverse to the downside last week
i did note this inverse head and shoulders breakout in previous videos and we took out the targets in this area and in fact we don't have the target on here because i removed it but this took out the target almost to the point somewhere in this area and then we started to climb from the previous target so going into this week i would favor short positions in bitcoin and any pullback in this market looks to be a potential right shoulder overhead and shoulders pattern and any pullback i would be looking for bearish reversals down to the next key of support to the downside the target set and the 49317 so that is it for me for this week guys as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thank you to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2021-11-22 17:44