Weekly Forex Forecast (22/08/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having   a great weekend i have been warning over the  last weeks that the dxy is only in a correction   and that new highs are the higher probability and  have been the higher probability move next for the   dollar index we are now approaching new highs and  when we go and look at the scorecards you will see   that opportunities are now coming back into the  markets after this period of contraction in dxy   okay so a brief look at the economic calendar  because there's not too much we need to pay   attention to for the coming week but last week we  did have the raising of interest rates out of new   zealand nothing which wasn't already expected and  we actually saw the new zealand dollar selling off   going into this week the new zealand to the  downside is something we're going to look at   but i don't think it's the best opportunity next  week but new zealand shorts are something we're   going to look at in this video in terms of the  uk we did have cpi coming out above expectations   and above what it previously was and usually  you would see the pound rally on this because   traders would be forward-looking or markets  would be forward-looking at this piece of data   and say well the bank of england going to raise  interest rates in order to control this because   inflation is greater than anticipated however  we saw the opposite we saw the pound selling   off because the bank of england have forecast  a year-long recession starting in q4 this year   going all the way through 2023 and they are not  going to hike rates aggressively with this pretty   substantial recession on the horizon and as a  result the markets are looking at this and saying   well they're not going to actually raise rates  aggressively to control this and inflation is   probably going to come down during the recession  itself as demand gets destroyed so we saw a   sell-off in the pound and the other important  thing from last week we did have some data coming   out of australia but it was the retail sales  out of the us which actually beat expectations   and this sets up dollar long plays fundamentally  once again because the whole time the u.s economy   is actually doing slightly better than forecast  although it's not fantastic currently and all   the other economies like the uk are heading into  a recession fairly imminently especially the eu   and germany this sets up the fundamental scenario  of the fed having more room to be aggressive with   rate hikes and the bank of england the european  central bank for example not having that same   amount of room and actually having to ease or  loosen monetary conditions earlier than the   us and this is fundamentally bullish for the  dollar bearish for the pound bearish for the   euro vis-a-vis the dollar so not really something  we need to dwell on but it's just interesting to   know the discrepancy between some of the data  coming out of the eu the uk and also the us   which is going to allow the fed to hike for longer  than its counterparts in the uk eu etc and if we   just jump ahead to this week you can see there's  not really too much we need to pay attention to we   do have core pc coming out on friday this is the  fed's preferred measure of inflation so i expect   some volatility on friday however the rest of the  week we really don't have anything we need to plan   short-term trades around the preliminary gdp is  essentially following on from the advanced gdp   we've already had and the jackson hole symposium  as well towards the end of the week again maybe we   see some volatility on comments out of the jackson  hole symposium but this is not anything we need to   plan short-term trades around so we pretty much  have a clear run at the markets this week okay so   let's have a look at the scores for the coming  week and starting with last week you can see   that the difference between last week in the  scores and this week is there's more volatility   in the scorecards themselves you can see that  means more opportunities are coming in and this   is when we should look to actually take more risk  as opposed to the last few weeks where we've had   less opportunities and we're looking to take less  risk and you can see as well that the us dollar   and the euro are now both opposite sides of the  scorecards they were last week but the us dollar   only just and it was kind of neutral before then  whereas now we have a clear difference between   the us dollar which is actually bullish or strong  bullish and the euro which is bearish so this is   telling the opportunities like to come back into  the markets markets are likely to move and we can   now be looking at taking more trades or more risk  than over the last three weeks and in last week's   video we were looking at swiss franc and japanese  yen plays the japanese yen actually weakened and   this is not totally unexpected because i had  highlighted in previous videos that we were   actually trading a counter trend move essentially  in the japanese yen it was moving up but it was   still below the major breakout level and it was  essentially a counter-trend move in a bigger   trend so generally i don't trade counter-trend  at all but when you have very large counter-trend   moves in the weekly or in the monthly they can  go on for many many weeks and so you can trade   them but certainly not intraday or really even  daily i would be trading counter-strike moves   and this is the exact reason why whereas the swiss  franc which was actually trending to the upside   we noticed previously you can see this increased  its score and the swiss franc pairs were the best   plays last week they actually performed the best  eurofrank to the downside for example pound frank   to the downside with some of the best performing  markets but coming into this week the us dollar is   now giving a strong bullish probability score  on a one to four week forward looking basis   so us dollar long plays i'm definitely interested  in next week swiss franc long positions i'm   definitely interested in once again next week the  pound is the weakest currency so i'm going to be   prioritizing pound shorts and that will be pound  frank to the downside pound dollar to the downside   because the yen is weakening i'm actually going  to leave the end this week i am going to once   again be interested in euro shorts and euro and  pound again were the best shorts last week and   now once again the best shorts this week so i'm  going to be looking at your frank again i'm going   to be looking at your dollar to the downside  this week for the first time in a few weeks   and those four currencies are going to make up  my primary trading plan they in my opinion will   be the best opportunities to make money next  week but because the new zealand dollar is also   weakening and we also have the canadian dollar  which is quite weak we can also look and i'm   going to look at new zealand to the downside  new zealand frank to the downside and also   cad frank to the downside us dollar cad to the  upside okay so let's have a quick look at the   individual currencies before we move on to the  markets themselves just to see what they're doing   the dxy as i've stated for a while now is the  only currency really in a full-blown bull market   the previous down move was a correction and we are  now we have broken out of this and we're starting   to make our way towards new highs and the previous  target of the 109.76 we're also still above   the major breakout level of the 102.99 there is  really nothing bearish currently about this chart  

and going into next week dx y long plays are one  of my favorite plays i did tweet out on the 17th   which was right here that the dxy for the first  time in the scorecards had turned from bearish to   neutral and to look out for dollar long plays into  the end of the week and that was actually when   we had the subsequent rally in the dollar over  the next couple of days so feel free to follow   me on twitter because i do post market updates on  there during the week as new information comes in   but going into this week i am going to be looking  for a pullback early and a move into the high and   also the 109.76 and i do believe that this move  up here is going to be one of the best places   to make money next week next is the euro i've been  warning previously that this move was a correction   and a lot of people got excited about this i don't  know why because we didn't even manage to clear   the seven year breakout level of the 1.03750 and  in fact all this was was a breakout of a seven   year range and a pullback and a re-test and now a  continuation once we take out the lowdown here in   the euro very often especially when you consider  this is a a break a pullback and a retest of a   seven year breakout there could be some real  trouble for the euro below this low once this   low gets taken out all of the buyers who bought in  here who do not realize that this is a seven year   breakout and up here is a four year breakout  they all place their stop losses some of them   place them up here and they've already capitulated  which is why you're seeing momentum coming in but   the rest of them especially ones who bought  up in this area and are currently underwater   their max pain point is probably going to  be this low so when this low gets taken out   we could very well see a very strong sell-off in  the euro and it could actually be the beginning of   a crash in the euro now i don't want to use the  word crash too much because it can be overused   and it can be a little bit sensationalist but  when you have a seven year breakout and a retest   and a break of the previous low like this there  is real risk here of capitulation in the euro so   keep an eye out for this next week i do not at all  want to be bullish on the euro next week i'm only   looking to shorts and i think euro shorts are one  of the best players next week when you consider   this as well this potential set up in the euro and  the risk of capitulation consider that alongside   what we will look at very briefly in the stock  market later which is that the stock market in   the us may now be about to roll over and if that's  the case we essentially have the u.s stock market   and the euro or in other words the dollar both  showing potential for capitulation so something   to keep in mind and i have been warning that the  previous rally in u.s stocks in my opinion is most   likely a bear market and the next leg down is  not too far away and in fact i highlighted the   vixx 1850 as the point at which to potentially  pinpoint the next reversal to the downside next   is the pound i have previously been warning that  this is most likely just a correction in the pound   and we're set for further declines as the dollar  rallies and we are now coming down to the 1.1734  

again pound shorts are one of my favorite plays  heading into next week next is the swiss franc   the swiss franc is bullish technically speaking  and it's actually the strongest currency in terms   of a one month forward looking probability score  so i do favor swiss franc long plays vis-a-vis   the other currencies next week but you can see  that this is actually selling off a little bit so   it isn't technically speaking very very strong  like the dollar is but vis-a-vis the other   currencies and on a one-month forward-looking  basis the swiss franc is still a good long and   swiss franc long plays certainly against the  pound and the euro you can also look at the   new zealand but certainly the pound and euro are  two of my favorite markets heading into next week   next is the japanese yen now this is what i was  talking about previously where i highlighted in   previous videos this was the major breakout level  in the japanese yen we were still below this so   this was not particularly a bullish chart but  in the very near term we got the sign from the   scorecards that we could see a strength in the  japanese gem we did actually see that but now   it started to roll over again so really looking  at this technically this is actually a fairly   bearish chart and with the scorecards themselves  contracting the japanese yen score from two to one   i do think we're probably going to see further  declines at least down to the lows in the end but   i'm going to be leaving yen trades completely next  week because if we do get a strong sell-off in for   example u.s stocks you could see this snap back  in your face if you're trying to short the end   so i'm off the yen next week next is the canadian  dollar we started to break to the downside from   the previous resistance area we never really got  through this which are highlighted 0.78 210 in the   last few weeks and we have now started to break  down it looks like we're actually forming head   and shoulders so next week i'm going to be looking  for a pullback in the cad pairs and look for this   next week in the cad pairs it may actually take a  week to pull back and then roll over in the next   couple of weeks but overall i would be bearish on  the cad we can look at cad shorts in today's video   vis-a-vis the frank and the dollar but i actually  prefer pound euro and new zealand shorts next week   over cad shorts next is aussie dollar a failed  inverse head and shoulders break and we now start   itself with momentum we have momentum here because  all the traders who traded this to the upside   counter trend basically got caught short they  pulled their long positions and this caused the   capitulation we see here probably going to see  a short-term correction next week which will fit   in with the correction in the dollar and then i'm  looking for further declines in the aussie pairs   down to the 0.6689 you could also look at aussie  shorts next week it's just that the scorecards  

are saying the pound the euro and new zealand  and even the cat are better shorts next week so   i absolutely wouldn't be long the aussie if  i absolutely had to take a position in aussie   pairs which i don't but if i did i would be short  but i'll probably not trade the aussie pairs next   week based on what the date is telling me and  finally new zealand dollar we had the big whipsaw   in new zealand with the inverse head and shoulders  breakout and then a failure of this now causing   capitulation momentum to the downside i'm looking  for a correction next week early monday tuesday   let's say and i am looking further declines into  the lows and into the 0.600 and this sell-off to   the downside especially if you pair this versus  the swiss franc and the dollar i do think there's   going to be potential to make money in new zealand  shorts next week okay so let's drop down to the   four-hour chart and look at the markets themselves  heading into next week last week we took out the   target in crude oil i am still bearish on crude  oil and in fact back in june i posted on twitter   that the data was suggesting crude oil has  topped and crude oil is actually down almost 20   since i tweeted that out and that was actually  at the same time jp morgan were forecasting 380   per barrel i do not think crude oil is headed  any higher and i do think as i say in this tweet   that the next leg down in stocks will be with  crude oil and vice versa going into next week   i am still bearish on crude oil and any pullback  is simply viewed as another opportunity to look   for bearish reversals into the 84.49 so the first  forex pair we're going to look at is pound franc   and pound franc is a market that i highlighted  in multiple videos previously as a good short   opportunity and i did also highlight the fact that  there was pretty much nothing but air between the   last breakout and the 1.1119 and we are starting  to come down here with momentum we have a really   nice breakout of this previous correction here and  you can see this is with momentum so any pullback   impound frank next week and this is my number  one forex pair i'm going to be looking at next   week to make money any pullback is simply viewed  as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to the next year of support at the 1.1119  next is euro franc we took out the target to the  

downside at 0.9653 last week eurofranc  has been a great performing market and   been shorting this pretty much all the way down  we've been looking at this in previous videos   i am still looking for the 0.9577 and any pullback  in this market next week is simply viewed as an   opportunity to look for bearish reversals into the  0.9577 if we switch to a weekly chart just very   quickly i highlighted in last week's video we've  now broken the low of the 2015 swiss franc shock   look at this chart this is as bearish as it gets  and bear this in mind also alongside the fact that   the euro index and even the euro dollar it has now  retested a seven year breakout and started to turn   from that level there is something by the looks of  it brewing in the currency markets for the euro it   does not look good it looks like there is the real  risk as i said earlier of a big sell-off in the   euro next is new zealand frank now new zealand  frank is an interesting one because it reminds   us of something about the scorecards we have had  new zealand frank pretty much on the radar for   the last couple of weeks and we had the uscpi day  to come out they saw the new zealand spike and it   kind of just chopped but the scorecards themselves  are one to four week looking probability scores so   if you get the market move against you for a week  or so but the scorecards are still showing swiss   franc for example as one of the best longs and the  new zealand as kind of neutral or maybe bearish   that is suggestive of actually in this case a  selling opportunity the market has moved against   what the scores are projecting but the scores  are holding up and therefore over the next three   or four weeks even if you get a week or so of the  markets moving against them the higher probability   is for further declines and that's exactly what  we saw in new zealand frank we have now started   to break out of this larger correction and any  pullback next week maybe we come down take out   the target first if we pull back before taking out  the target i'm going to be looking for shorts into   the 0.5904 if we take out the target and then  pull back i'm going to be looking down towards   the next k of supports to the downside at 0.5838  next is cad frank we took out previous targets the  

0.7364 on the 0.7310 heading into this week it's  not in my top six markets here or forex markets   because i also like silver and bitcoin which we're  going to look at but it's not in my top six forex   picks however i am still going to be looking for  potentially good bearish setups in cad frank if   they materialize especially if crude oil continues  to sell off so any pullback although it's not in   my top six any pullback is still going to be  viewed as a potential opportunity to look for   bearish reversals down to the next care of support  to the downside 0.7250 moving on to the dollar   pairs and pound dollar is one of my favorite forex  markets it's my second favorite or you could say   third favorite maybe after eurofranc but really  in fact i would say pound franc followed by pound   dollar euro dollar euro frank they're all kind of  the same it's in my top six setups next week and   it's one of the best opportunities in my opinion  we do have a head and shoulders breakout with   momentum so any correction in pound dollar there's  a high probability that that is going to result in   further declines to the downside and i'm going  to be looking for shorts into the 1.1715 next is   euro dollar i did previously highlight the fact  that euro dollar was in a correction and it was   pulling back to retest the 1.03 434 which was the  major breakout level we have reversed from here   and eurodollar is back on the table we have a head  and shoulders reversal in this area and downward   sloping any pullback with momentum any pullback  is going to be viewed next week as an opportunity   to look for shorts in this market down to the  0.9927 it is one of my favorite opportunities   heading into next week next is new zealand dollar  we've actually broken out of a large counter-trend   move here and we are breaking with momentum  any pullback and i do think we'll probably do   a pullback first any pullback is viewed next week  as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to first of all the previous low and then on  to the zero point 0.6015 and new zealand tops off  

my six favorite forex markets heading into next  week and the final forex market we're going to   look at here is us dollar cad we have broken out  of an inverse head and shoulders here and i am   going to be looking for any pullback next week as  an opportunity to look for bullish setups into the   1.3203 may take a couple of weeks to get here but  i do think we're heading now back to the 1.3203   it doesn't make the top six but again just with  cad frank i am still going to be looking at it for   potential opportunities next week okay so wrapping  up with gold silver bitcoin and we're also going   to look at stocks very briefly the gold silver  ratio is breaking back to the upside heading   towards the 95 level and you can see momentum here  in the gold silver ratio so i am bearish on gold   and silver both of them as well as bitcoin but i  prefer silver shorts over gold shorts as i think   silver shorts will outperform gold shores next  week next is gold now gold has started to break   to the downside and it pulled back and re-tested  the 1787.31 i have been highlighting in previous   videos that gold was likely to come back and  test the previous low and that was when we start   to see it roll over same with silver same with  bitcoin we just missed the previous loan bitcoin   but that was likely to also be the first sign that  stock markets were likely to follow and the dxy   was likely to rally so going into next week  any pullback in gold is simply an opportunity   once again to look for bearish reversals down  towards the next key of supports the downside   in the target set at 16 76.87 next is silver now  silver as i said is my preferred short out of gold  

and silver next week we do have a strong dollar  so i do expect further declines in these markets   again we came back and retested the previous low  as i highlighted in previous videos and just said   this was counter trend and that upside was really  capped and if you get involved in silver or gold   longs in this area you're running the risk of  picking up pennies in front of a steamroller   because the upside is capped and you have the  risk of the bigger selloff as the xy rallies   so we have now turned at the previous low heading  into this week we did have a double top reversal   in this area in silver we came back and retested  it and then we sold off any pullback therefore   is simply viewed as another opportunity to look  for bearish reversals down to the next key of   support downside the target set the 17.63 and last  but not least before we have a quick look at u.s   stock market is bitcoin i have noted in previous  videos that bitcoin is in a correction this is a   bear flag this is corrective and that i am  looking for the declines and because we had   such a strong sell-off previously we have a  longer period of contraction well we failed   to pull back and test the low like we did in gold  like we did in silver we just missed it and there   was quite a big reversal to the downside we have  very very strong momentum here and so this goes   into the list of top markets to look at to make  money next week any pullback in this area is   simply viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts  down to the next care of support to the downside   of 16 492. bear in mind that bitcoin is highly  correlated with us stocks especially the nasdaq   this is one early indication that the recent bear  market rally in stocks is now coming towards an   end so finally then a look at the s p 500 as  we've been monitoring it in previous videos we   are above the four one seven seven point five  one and we did break above here with momentum   we did see some strong sell-off at the end of last  week however when we go and look at the vix next   you will see we're not quite at the 1850 level i  do believe it's the 1850 level still that really   has the potential to spell danger for u.s stocks  and where we could really see a reversal to the   downside in stock so we did have a strong self at  the end of last week but don't be surprised if we   get one more rally as the vix trades into 1850 and  that will be the point at which to start to look   for a reversal in u.s stocks perhaps even a double  top and if we start to break below the 4177.5  

which in last week's video i compared the  current s p 500 conditions to that of 2008   the break below the 4177.51 would be the next key  confirmation of the next down leg in u.s stocks   so to summarize this for you i am still  looking for the vix to head into the 1850 area   that may result in a double top in s p 500 that  would be the first time to actually start to   look for reversal in stocks and if you start see  volatility accelerating from the 1850 in the vix   look for confirmation on a break or a close or  better still multiple closes below the four one   seven seven point five one as that is where the  next leg down in u.s stocks is likely to start   if we get volatility from the 18.50 vix  which has been my base case for a while   so that is it from me for this week guys as  always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next week   the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-08-22 00:45

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