Weekly Forex Forecast (21/11/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's  weekly Forex forecast hope everybody's having   a great weekend I have been warning as many of  you know since March that we are coming towards   the end of the business cycle and I do believe  that stock market capitulation as I've been   saying is going to take place in Q4 of this year  we are in Q4 now and I do believe we have enough   information to start to see how this is likely  to play out and I want to cover that in today's   video as well as looking at markets for next  week okay so a very quick look at the economic   calendar there is one thing to pay attention to  next week it is the interest rate decision out   of New Zealand I do like New Zealand pairs next  week and I will be looking to trade them most   likely after this takes place and so we will be  looking at some potential news trades for the   New Zealand dollar pairs next week and on top of  that the only other thing to note is we do have   Thanksgiving in the US on Thursday so markets are  very likely to be slow Forex markets Etc when the   US has a national holiday so keep that in mind for  next Thursday okay so if we look at the scores for   the coming week you can see that to the upside  the best Forex Market is the Swiss franc and to   the downside it is the Canadian dollar so CAD  Frank to the downside is one of my top markets   that I'm going to be looking at going into next  week I also like Euro Aussie to the upside in Euro   CAD to the upside both of these were highlighted  in last week's video and both of them finished   the week positive what we do have to take into  account and last week in the Forex complex was   actually a little bit slow reason being because  as I noted in previous videos and on Twitter we   had big big moves off of that CPI data in the  dollar in the Swiss franc in the Yen and when   you get big moves two three stand deviation moves  in Forex you often have a pause or a correction   or a breather after that that's exactly what we  saw last week the dxy when we go and look at it   didn't really do much last week and that is really  the same for some of these markets like cadient   outside CAD Frank to the downside so a number  of these markets are really setting up for what   look to be very very nice moves but we may  need a little bit more of a correction a few   days of Correction heading into next week in  some of these pairs as they continue to pause   after those massive moves that we saw from the  last U.S CPI print so just bear that in mind a   little bit of patience is likely going to be  required at the beginning of the week however   outside of the Swiss franc and the Euro to the  upside Aussie CAD to the downside we are going   to be looking at those pairs also going to be  looking at or the end to the downside and CAD   the end to the downside which I like but which  have been just kind of correcting last week uh   we're also going to look at the New Zealand pairs  to the downside vis-a-vis the Swiss franc uh we're   going to look at Euro New Zealand to the upside  and also New Zealand Yen to the downside okay so   let's look at the individual currency starting  as always with the dollar Index but I want as many of you know I have been saying since  March I do think the business cycle is coming   to the end we are headed for Global recession  and we are facing a stock market capitulation in   the near future that was H2 so the second half  of this year narrowed down to Q4 which is what   we're in right now and if we look at this on the  monthly chart we are starting to see quite a clear   pattern developing now many of you will know I'm  not a hardcore Elliot waiver and that's because   markets are not always moving on Wave counts the  idea you can just open the chart read it on a wave   count and know where it's going every single time  is not actually realistic markets they will move   on Elliott waves and they will produce Elliott  waves but they are not always moving on Elliott   ways and if you have to squint and if you have  to try really hard to find the waves then they're   probably not there so I do like to use it but I  like when these wave counts jump out at me and I   don't really have to look for them and that is the  case with what we're seeing in the dxy this is not   something you have to strain very very hard to see  what we have here and we have multiple rules which   this is actually aligning to for Elliot waivers  and that is that these waves develop in five waves   first and foremost one two three four five what  we can clearly see here is we can clearly see the   one wave which was the rally off the low we then  have an ABC for the two it's a deep pull back very   often when you have second waves and fourth waves  they alternate it's called The Law of alternation   usually wave two is deep and then wave four is  shallow but if you have a very shallow wave uh two   then you can have a deep wave four like this so  you can clearly see one ABC two and then one two   three sideways four and then a fifth wave then you  have to pull back for the fourth wave and then you   have this correction here so we come down we come  up and I noted in the big dxy thread that I posted   on Twitter and attached in the YouTube videos that  this was likely a second wave and we were starting   to break out into a third wave and you can see  we do have momentum once we broke the high and   that's exactly what you would expect to see in  a third wave and when we look at the pullbacks   of these waves this was a deep retracement so  from here to here this second wave was deep   and now we do have the shallow retracement  level for this potential Wave 4 right here   and that's at the 0.382 so what I'm looking at  here and when we put all of the pieces of the   puzzle together when we align this with the macro  which is that inflation yes has come down a little   bit in the US but you have the Federal Reserve  coming out now and they're telling you Bullard   was even saying that the terminal rate could go  as high as seven percent why because very often   historically you have to get interest rates  above CPI or core CPI in order to get it down   and they are not there yet so there is room and  I believe we could be seeing a higher terminal   rate than it's already priced in all of this  is bullish for the dollar and in a stock market   capitulation or a crash you would expect to see a  strong rally in the dxy now if we are coming down   and perhaps over the next month or so and we are  in November now so I am open to the idea that   this gets pushed into q1 of next year but if we  can come down for this fourth wave it does look   like we could have one final move up this kind  of blow off top in the dxy and that would likely   in my opinion coincide with the stock market  capitulation and the Crash which will indicate the   bottom in the market because the stock market is  not going to go down forever it will at some point   bottom but stock markets do not tend to bottom  without a panic without fear and a capitulation   and I do think based on what I'm seeing here and  in the S P 500 that we could very well be looking   at a fourth wave correction perhaps into the  previous High down to roughly the 104.50 before   that final rally into the high of the.com Crash  which again was in the dxy thread and we have  

this kind of fifth wave blow off top Target here  at the 121 to 125. okay so how does that align   with what we're looking at in the S P 500 well  we are in an overall bear Market in the S P 500   and as it currently stands we are in a bear Market  rally now going back to the 50s historically the   average bear Market rally in the S P 500 is around  15 you can see the previous one was 19 this was   actually bigger but the average is 15 and 15 off  the lows is the 4016 area which we tagged and we   sold off from so what we're looking at here is  we're looking at the dxy potentially coming down   to the end of a fourth wave which is a corrective  wave therefore followed by an impulsive wave to   the upside of fifth wave and explosive move and  at the same time we are seeing the S P 500 now   at an area where historically you would expect it  to start to roll over if this is going to be an   average bear Market rally when you put those two  things together you end end up with two potential   reversal points in opposite directions leading to  a final fifth wave in the dxy blow off top and a   potential capitulation in the s p 500. okay so  let's drop back down to the daily chart and look   at the near term here in the dxy we do have this  big sell-off three standard deviation moves to   the downside in the dollar Index and I noted at  the beginning of last week downside on Twitter   I posted was limited and you can see we really  struggled to break and now we are correcting   so going into next week I would not be surprised  to see this continue slightly higher the problem   is you are if you go long the dollar trading  this counter trade now that's fine if you want   straight counter Trends you can do that I prefer  not straight counter Trend I prefer to go and   look for markets which are derivatives of that for  example if we get a continued Rally or correction   in the dxy then you could look for crude oil  to the downside would be a good one because as   the dollar appreciates this is a Tailwind for oil  shorts so I would preferred to look for crude oil   and crude oil next week is a market I am focused  on to the downside but if you do want to trade   counter Trend uh New Zealand dollar is probably  the best counter Trend trade you can look for and   I'm going to show you that because of the interest  rate decision next week we'll look at that as well   but before we get to the markets quick look at the  individual currencies well I think we're probably   going to see here is a continued correction now  this might take a few days it may take even longer   than a few days but I think we get this correction  I think near term we get some risk off as this   happens and then I think we have another leg down  in the dollar that actually would be one two three   four five six seven as many of you might know  seven waves is often the sign of a correction   and nine waves is often the sign of an impulsive  move or a primary Trend impulsive moves nine waves   are called primary Trends Corrections are called  secondary Trends often developed in seven waves   so if we have one two three four five six seven  that could also provide us with the double bottom   that we could look for right in the area of that  major fourth wave pullback now that would suggest   potentially one more high in the S P 500 maybe we  do go to 16 17 18 like the last bear Market rally   but I do think that is the area we really need  to be looking at very very carefully for a bigger   risk-off event to take place the next link down in  S P 500 and the next rally in the dollar and the   dollar in my opinion is coming back to New highs  and as I said I believe we could be coming up to   the 121 quicker than a lot of people think okay  so if we look at the Euro on the daily chart the   Euro has actually pulled back to the 1.03750 and  if you remember this was the seven year breakout   we've been monitoring all the way through the  year we've pulled back to here and think about   this in relation to what we looked at in the S  P 500 so in the US dollar we are at a potential   fourth wave end you know not right now but maybe  over the next week or next few weeks we start to   see the dxy bottoming out at the same time the S P  500 is at its average bear Market rally level and   the euro is sitting at a pullback to a seven year  breakout so again perhaps we come down a little   bit further and we correct next week maybe we get  one more high and we double top up here and that   starts the move away from the seven year breakout  that would also be indicative of a bigger more   volatile explosive move because when you get  these pullbacks these retests and you start to   push away from these levels that's when you get  big sell-offs because everybody who's trying to   trade this is a bottom is going to start to panic  and they exit their positions and this causes the   market to pick up momentum gain steam as it starts  to sell off so very important to put all of the   pieces of the puzzle together the Euro also fits  in with what we just looked at in the dollar in   the s p 500. next is the pound now the pound has  been corrective ever since we had the flash crash  

as I showed you in previous videos when you have  flash crashes they tend to come up take out the   high and then they come back over to the lows  so again this also fits in in a different way   for further declines to the downside taking the  dxy back to New highs and above but in the near   term again I wouldn't be surprised to see this  pull back test the 1.2057 I am neutral overall   on the pound but now we're starting to pull back  and re-test these lows over here I would not be   surprised to start to see this roll over if the  dxy does turn around as well like disgust next is   the Swiss franc we took out the previous targets  at the 1.07010 now when we look at the Swiss franc   does the Swiss franc confirm everything else we've  been discussing in the euro in the S P 500 in the   dollar the answer is yes it does because in the  Swiss franc we had a five percent rally which are   raised 50 or half of the entire Year's move to  the downside in the Swiss franc these are moves   you tend to see this is the kind of volatility  you tend to see around big Market events and with   the Swiss franc rallying what this is setting up  in the Swiss franc is a potential right shoulder   and maybe the Swiss franc corrects as the dollar  comes down a little bit further and if we get this   right shoulder because this is a low this is a  lower low and if this becomes a higher low that   would be the right shoulder that is your precursor  and look at the momentum here momentum precedes   price that is your precursor to a potential  third wave in the Swiss franc what would you   expect to see in a stock market capitulation or  a blow off top in the dollar a flight to safety   you would expect to see a sharp rally in the  Swiss franc so keep an eye on this I believe   this is also confirming what we've looked at in  the other markets next is the Japanese Yen big   steep rally and it does look like we need a bit of  a correction first that's why I say in cadien for   example Aussie Yen may be patients required as  the end corrects a bit further but I am looking   for the next leg up and again we are potentially  looking at an inverse Head and Shoulders reversal   pattern in the end and when we look at the Yen  as well the Japanese Yen rallied six percent   on that CPI data and I noticed previously the  last time he did that was during the 2008 crash   that was the last time we had such a rally in  the end so again volatility to the upside in   this Safe Haven asset which you only tend to see  around large risk-off events next is the cad the game dollar is one of my preferred shorts and  if we do push a little bit higher next week   again patients might be required in CAD Frank for  example as it continues to correct but the bigger   move we should be focused on is to the downside  and you know if you're going long the Canadian   dollar the problem you have is you may only have  a little bit of reward to the upside but you could   end up missing the bigger move or being on the  wrong side of the bigger move which would be even   worse so I do like CAD shorts but patience may  be required if we push a little bit higher first   Australian dollar exactly the same as the cad  big rally up and I would not be surprised to see   this correct a bit rally into the highs as the dxy  corrects and then comes down and then I do believe   this could be where we start to see the Australian  dollar rolling over to the downside for the next   leg down and on to the 0.61240 and finally the  New Zealand dollar a steep rally to the upside   and we have on the four hour chart here this is a  small double top and I would not be surprised to   see this correct into the interest rate decision  why because very often leading into interest rate   decisions markets correct because big players are  not placing their money in the build up to this   and you just see accumulation in these markets and  that's one of the reasons why if you did want to   trade the US dollar counter trend it would be the  New Zealand dollar which I think could set up a   good trade into the actual interest rate decision  itself because if the dollar corrects and the New   Zealand dollar probably is going to correct lead  into the interest rate decision this move from   here down this correction into the interest rate  decision gives good risk to reward because it's   unlikely you're going to get an explosive move  to the upside but you could actually see this   snapping back before the interest rate decision  overall I believe all three of these commodity   currencies are set for an X leg down fairly soon  I do believe they're coming down to the lows and   again I think this actually confirms what we've  been discussing in the other markets okay so   let's look at the markets themselves starting  with crude oil crude oil is one of my favorite   markets heading into next week we had a really  good sell-off into the 80.02 last week coming   into this week if we do continue to correct in  the dxy instead of trading any of those markets   counter Trend this should put downward pressure  on crude oil once again and any pullback in this   market next week I am looking for potential shorts  down to the previous low and then on to the 74.23   as I said this is one of my favorite markets  heading into next week next is CAD Frank a huge   sell-off and this is why we've had the near-term  correction the pause so as I said patience may   be required if we are going to get a little bit  of a deep correction but the deeper the pullback   the better because if we pull back and we have a  deeper correction here then it gives us more room   to the next Target the 0.7061 so any continued  correction is simply viewed as an opportunity it  

starts look for shorts into the 0.7061 and then  on to the 0.6930 next is Aussie Frank this was   a market highlighted to the downside last week  and you notice the markets highlighted in Gold   CAD Frank Aussie Frank eurocad Euro Aussie Cadian  Aussie Yen these are all risk offset up so if we   do get a continued correction in the dollar these  markets should benefit I did highlight this last   week but not too much happened we came back and  we retested the high over here and it does now   look like we could be coming down so any continued  pullback is simply viewed as an opportunity to it   for shorts down to the previous low and then on  to the 0.6208 next is New Zealand Frank now I'm   looking at this in the daily because I think it  gives a clearer picture of what we're looking at   here you can see we came back and we retested the  lows over here and now we are forming a double top   I would not be surprised to see this coming up  trying to push through the highs once again and   if this starts to fail especially if we test the  highs and then we get a sell-off on the interest   rate decision itself this is a market I'm going  to be looking to after the interest rate decision   for a potential follow through down to the 0.5512  which as I've been saying I do believe is a high   probability Target and all of this as it stands  should just be treated as a near-term correction   a sell-off in New Zealand Frank is of course risk  off and I do think the interest rate decision next   week could be the Catalyst to push this down to  new lows next is eurocad eurocad was a market   highlighted to the upside last week and we did  come up and take out the 1.3806 as you can see  

eurocad is quite extended so I would like to see  this correct first any pullback like this would be   treated as a bull flag and an opportunity to once  again look for long positions into the one point   three eight ninety and then on to the 1.3976 next  is your Aussie I highlighted this market last week   and because the dollar didn't really go anywhere a  lot of markets just kind of corrected it was a bit   choppy last week we had a quite a low volatility  week but we are forming now an inverse Head and   Shoulders we do have this momentum rally momentum  precedes price I am looking further advances this   week so any pullback in this area especially if  we can come back and test the left shoulder I am   going to be treating this as a ball flag and an  opportunity once again to look for Longs into the   previous high and then on to the 1.5839 next is  euro dollar now we look at euro dollar every week   but I think euro dollar probably does what we've  looked at in the dxy just the inverse of course   and because because we're right up at the seven  year breakout I would not be surprised to see this   correcting a bit more especially as we have a kind  of shallow correction here I wouldn't be surprised   to see this get quite deep as the dxy corrects  that three standard deviation move and then if the   dxy comes down one more time like this that would  be the opportunity to look for a rally in euro   dollar to the previous highs and that is where I'd  be looking for a potential double top and the dxy   and the bigger picture to start to bottom for that  fourth wave or the end of the fourth wave so going   into next week the problem is you would probably  have to look at this counter Trend because it   does look like we have a correction continuing in  the dxy next week if we break this we can look up   to the four-year breakout the 1.06359 I don't  think euro dollar as it currently stands is a   great Market to be involved with next is Euro New  Zealand again highlighted in blue because these   are post interest rate decision trades that I'm  interested in looking at what I'd like to see here   as you can see we have this big ball flag if on  the interest rate decision we get a strong move to   the upside I'm going to be looking for a pullback  and then I'm going to be looking for the follow   through into the 1.7539 and potentially higher  as well but the first near-term Target is the  

previous height the 1.7539 so again interested in  this after the interest rate decision takes place   if we get a rally and a break higher off of that  interest rate decision next is cadien now again   looking at this in the daily chart why because no  normally we look at these in the four hour chart   but we have to keep in mind the big picture  because a number of these are showing major   reversal patterns discussed in last week's video  how a number of these Yen pairs are setting up for   in this case a large head and shoulders a high a  high high and then a lower high and the break of   here is actually the confirmation as you can see  we're currently just correcting one two three four   five we did nothing last week so the analysis  on this Remains the Same any pullback here   is viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts  down to the 101.76 however if we come and   re-break this low after confirming this head and  shoulders we could see some very strong momentum   to the downside because that is when these markets  tend to turn into third waves next is Aussie Yen   now outside of Cadian Euro Aussie eurocad Aussie  Frank CAD Frank those are my six favorite markets   going into next week again on the daily chart so  we can keep an eye on the bigger picture we do   have this head and shoulders reversal confirmed  on a breakdown below here so any correction is   simply viewed food as it currently stands as an  opportunity to look for shorts into the low over   here and onto the 90.53 but just like cadion if we  break here we could be seeing a third wave coming   into the downside and as I said in last week's  video this is indicative of a large risk-off   event and I finally the Empire is New Zealand Yen  what I would like to see is if we can push a bit   higher and then reverse on the interest rate  decision if we start to reverse and we get a   bigger sell-off this is something to pay attention  to high higher high this would be a failed high in   other words a lower high and any sell-off with  momentum to the downside as a catalyst look for   this pullback post interest rate decision because  that could very well be the Catalyst which sends   us back down to the lows and if we break the low  down here that is again potentially the start   of a new trend a third wave to the downside and  indicative of a big risk-off move and the final   New Zealand pair is New Zealand dollar this is  just simply what I was looking at as a potential   kind of range trade so you're trading a lack of  volatility essentially you have the New Zealand   and the dollar if the dollar is continuing to  correct this is likely to put downward pressure   on the New Zealand and New Zealand dollar is  probably going to correct anyway leading into   the interest rate decision so from Monday into  the interest rate decision there is potentially   an opportunity you see how we're failing at the  previous highs we have a Mini double top I would   not be surprised to see this pulling back for a  couple of days into that interest rate decision   so if you wanted a US dollar pre-interest rate  decision trade or New Zealand dollar pre-interest   rates in trade you could look for this if you hold  it through the news event of course you're taking   on that risk event and so if you want to trade  this more conservatively without taking on that   risk event wait for the interest rate decision to  take place and then if you get the sell-off then   you could come and look for the follow-through  trade to the downside because again I do think   we're coming down to the lows in the near future  in this market okay so wrapping up the video with   gold silver and Bitcoin start with the gold silver  ratio you can see we do have this Bear Flag so I   do favor Silva outperforming gold as this comes  lower probably down to the 78.62 in the near   term if we go and have a look at gold I do think  gold comes up and tests the 1807.16 and if you   link this in with what we've discussed in the dxy  that's essentially a continued correction because   this is a very strong move and that would be as  the dxy continues to correct like this and then   a test of this level this High over here that  moving gold is the move I'd be looking forward   to the upside once the dxy correction is over as  the XY comes down I'd be looking for the double   bottom the end of the fourth wave as we looked  at earlier and as the dollar starts to Rally   I do think this is where we could start see  gold selling off and that could actually be   the start of the bigger leg down in Gold but  I do think there's one more up as the dollar   comes down one more time first in Gold next  is silver very much just the same as gold so   any continued correction as the dxy continues  to correct in the kind of Bear Flag that it's   currently in I would be treating this as an  opportunity to look for Longs into the 2249   but as the dollar starts to come down test the  lows if we do start to double bottom here that's   where I think this could be the start of the next  leg down in silver and last but not least we have   Bitcoin as the dollar sold off did we see a big  risk on move coming into Bitcoin no because we   had the FTX debacle and so we are seeing a general  risk of sentiment throughout markets despite that   sell-off in the dollar any pullback in Bitcoin  we did have this big sell-off and again when   you have big sell-offs you get the corrections  so any pullback in Bitcoin patience is required   but any pullback is viewed as an opportunity to  look for shorts into the 14 858.30 so that is  

it for me for this week guys as always I hope  you enjoyed this video and if you did please   let me know by liking sharing and subscribing  a big thanks to everybody who does that on a   regular basis and a big thank you to everybody  who has subscribed to the channel so far if you   enjoyed today's video why not consider joining  us during the week where I share my charts as   well as the setups that I'm personally looking  at trading with members on a daily basis and   we also published the scorecards for over 75  markets in different asset classes including   Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find  out more about the benefits of GMT membership by   clicking the links in the description below  and also in the pin comment below so thanks   for watching the only thing left to say is  take care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-11-21 14:53

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