Weekly Forex Forecast (18/04/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (18/04/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast hope you're having   a fantastic weekend i was unable to do the video  last week however i'm back this week and there   does look to be a lot of really good opportunities  coming up in the markets next week so i'm excited   to get stuck in next week we're going to go  through the same format as we usually do however   there is one change i have temporarily removed the  stock analysis because when i asked previously you   guys seem to prefer to have the stocks separate in  a second video and so from now on this video will   only be for forex it will only be the weekly forex  forecast and i'm going to be working on a separate   second video for a stocks forecast which we can do  and that video will be released separately so as i   say i have removed the stock analysis although  it's only temporary and if you want to follow   along with stock updates and stock indices updates  in the meantime feel free to follow me on twitter   because i will post updates not just on forex  but also on the stock markets on twitter in the   meantime so as always let's just have a very brief  review of the economic calendar to see what we   have coming up and what we had last week because  it's important last week we did have an interest   rate out of new zealand an interest rate out of  canada and we also had an interest rate decision   out of the eu so those three pairs and especially  canada when we go and have a look at the markets   is very interesting to me the new zealand pairs  also look quite good but canada is something we're   going to be paying attention to i'm also going to  look at crude oil and why a breakout now in crude   oil is likely to have a positive effect on the  cad pairs and it's one of the reasons i like the   cad pairs going into next week coming up you can  see on monday we do have some bank holidays here   so i wouldn't be surprised if monday was a little  bit slow apart from that there is really nothing   else we need to pay attention to we have some cpi  data and we have the fed chair power speaking but   there's nothing here in terms of interest rates  that we really need to pay attention to in terms   of short-term trades and if we skip ahead one  more week you can see again a little bit of cpi   and we have a interest rate decision out of the  boj but nothing we really need to plan for in   advance we have a pretty clear run for the next  couple of weeks in the economic calendar if we   move on to the scorecards you can see that the  two changes that took place from last week are a   slight increase in the strength of the pound score  and the swiss franc which went from neutral to -1   now the swiss frank is probably the most  interesting currency to me going into next week   and we're going to see why in this video i think  the swiss franc pairs could be the best place or   one of the best places to make money next week  and possibly even for the next few weeks because   as we've gone from zero to minus one you're going  to see when we look at the individual currencies   we actually have a breakout in the swiss franc  to the downside and you have to bear in mind this   is in line with what the swiss national bank want  they want to see the evaluation of the swiss franc   so when you're in this position where you get  a downward breakout or a bearish breakout of   the swiss franc this is a great opportunity this  is really something we want to be paying attention   to because we have the wind in our sails from  the smb the smb policy is a tailwind to any short   swiss franc positions we're looking to take so not  a lot of changes from last week and the australian   dollar still remains the strongest currency  although it slightly came off an overbought   score which we had in previous videos not last  week but in previous videos we had a score of four   which is overbought and the us dollar which gained  strongly and performed very well last week is   second place i do like dollar long positions going  into next week the cad is plus two and the cad is   also something you want to be paying attention to  we had the interest rate decision last week and   i think we're likely now to get moves directional  moves in the cad pairs and certainly it's going to   be something we're going to be looking at in this  video and we also as i said earlier we're going   to look at crude oil and the breakout that we're  now getting in crude oil to the upside which is   also likely to feed into any long canadian dollar  positions and on the weak side we still have the   euro as one of the best shorts the japanese yen  has been on our list as one of the best shorts   really since the start of the big down move and  i posted that on twitter we pretty much turned   bearish on this just as it broke out and had that  hu basically just collapsed to the downside and   it is still bearish but with the jpy being over  sold with a score of -4 and it's been oversold   for a number of weeks now and with the boj coming  up in two weeks i would not be surprised to see   the japanese yen get a little bit corrective over  the next week or so so although this has been one   of the best shorts recently if we're going  to start to see the japanese yen coming up   off the bottom and we're going to start to see  a little bit of correction coming into this big   sell-off we've had it's probably going to happen  in the next two weeks before the boj meeting   so for that reason jpy shorts although we're  going to look at them in today's video they're   not going to be highlighted as some of my favorite  pairs going into next week i think the risk of the   jpy coming off the oversold levels over the next  two weeks ahead of boj has actually increased now   so to the downside the two best currencies that  are like this week are the euro and the swiss   franc even though the swiss franc is the same  score as the pound the difference is the swiss   franc has broken bearish from a neutral state  whereas the pound has kind of strengthened from a   neutral state so i prefer swiss franc shorts going  into this week over pound shorts for that reason   and euro shorts are alongside the swiss  franc looking like the best plays heading   into next week as well so i do like and we're  going to be looking at EURAUD to the downside   i'm also going to be looking at aussie frank to  the upside we will also look at pound ozzy and   aussie yen but as i said i prefer swiss franc and  euro shorts next week i also really like us dollar   long positions we're going to look at us dollar  swiss franc to the upside is a really nice pair   i like EURUSD to the downside again we'll look  at GBPUSD and also USDJPY and the same applies   for the cad pairs i really like cad frank where  we're seeing a potential major breakout to the   upside we're going to look at and also EURCAD  to the downside and outside of those two pairs   we're going to be looking also at GBPCAD to  the downside and cad yen to the upside but   again heading into next week i'm really looking  to prioritize those euro and swiss franc shorts   against the aussie the us dollar and the cad  so if we have a quick look at the individual   currencies and this is important this week because  there's a couple of things being thrown up here   that we really need to pay attention to in the  individual currencies in the futures markets which   are signals for next week and are going to really  help us out the first thing is that the dxy and   we're looking in the daily chart here just to  have an overall picture of what we're seeing   we took out the target set previously at the  100.52 this was actually last week's target   although we didn't do a video last week i did  post this on twitter as the target was taken out   last week and now we're taking this out i am  going to be looking for further advances to   the upside in the dxy the next target is the  101.74 so i am favoring dollar long positions   once again going into next week and really just  confirming here technically what we're looking at   in the scorecards next is the euro euro really  again confirming what we're looking at in the   scorecards any pullback in this market i am going  to be looking further declines and euros shorts as   i say are one of the primary things i'm going to  be looking at this week next is the pound we did   take out the target to the downside in pound last  week and i am now looking further declines into   the 1.2857 so again nothing here that scorecards  are not already telling us next is the swiss franc   now this is where just having a cursory look at  the individual currencies in the futures markets   really gives us an important signal outside of  the scorecards next week this breakdown in the   swiss franc is really something i'm going to  be paying attention to next week you can see   that we had a head and shoulders break here in the  daily and that was confirmed on a break below here   and this is very likely the start of a bigger  move to the downside in us dollar swiss franc and   if this is going to be the breakout of this very  very choppy correction we've been seeing recently   we could be seeing some very explosive  moves to the downside in the swiss franc   over the next even couple of months but that  would be starting next week having broken this   near-term head and shoulders to the downside  and broken it with momentum i mean look at this   this is indicating further declines are coming in  the swiss franc well if that's the case this is   something i want to be prioritizing next week and  keeping a very close eye on looking to position in   some of those stronger currencies against it us  dollar swiss franc aussie swiss franc cad frank   primarily to take advantage of further declines  in the swiss franc so in the scorecards we see   it go from neutral zero to minus one but when  we look and confirm in the futures markets what   we're looking at in the scorecards we can see we  could very well be seeing the swiss franc going to   minus two minus three maybe even minus four in the  scorecards over the next couple of weeks if this   is the start of a major break to the downside and  what could stop that while the swiss national bank   could step in but they're not going to because  they want to see the swiss franc devalued so   there is really nothing i can see in the near  term aside from a market crash and a flight safety   somewhat into the swiss franc there is nothing i  can see immediately in the next couple of months   which is going to prevent further declines in the  swiss franc next is the japanese yen now as i just   said we turned bearish first in the scorecards  over in this area we turned -2 for the first time   and we had this massive sell-off in the japanese  yen we took out both targets to the downside last   week and so i am bearish on the japanese yen i  would absolutely not under any circumstances go   out and start buying japanese yen however because  it's oversold and because we have the boj coming   up in two weeks i'm not going to be prioritizing  yen pairs we're going to look at say us dollar yen   aussie yen but i prefer the euro and the frank  pairs next week because of that risk of a bounce   or a correction in the end just maybe even near  term over the next two weeks into the boj meeting   so still bearish overall on the end but it's not  one of my favorite shorts heading into next week   next is the cad the cad is technically bullish  and we did take out the target at the 0.8040  

and interestingly in the canadian dollar as well  alongside as we're going to see very shortly a   break to the upside in crude oil we have also  this target here was a break of a major inverse   head and shoulders so having got very  very choppy since really last july of 2022   we could now be seeing a breakout to the upside  in the canadian dollar and we may see the canadian   dollar now catching up with the recent volatility  to the upside we've seen in crude oil so i'm going   to be keeping a very close eye on the canadian  dollar pairs to the upside next week and certainly   looking at this and also what we discussed in  the swiss franc cad frank is a market that you   want to keep your eye on over the next couple of  weeks or so and starting next week we could see   bigger moves to the upside in cad frank so this  is really one of my best pairs that i'm going to   be focused on next week australian dollar coming  from the overbought levels in the scorecards and   we're starting to sell off as profit taking came  in we took out the target set i am still bullish   on the australian dollar and i'm looking for a  continuation into the 0.7673 over the next couple   of weeks and finally the new zealand dollar and  again this is where matching the scores with the   futures markets helps us out because the  new zealand dollar is actually quite weak   although we have a score of plus one what i'm  seeing here in the futures markets is telling me   that i do not really want to be going out and  buying new zealand dollar it's not a great buy   and even though it's got a score of plus one which  is kind of bullish to neutral i would avoid buying   new zealand pairs next week okay so let's look at  the markets themselves starting with crude oil and   we came and took out the previous target to the  pip the 93.38 before reversing higher breaking out   of this downward move here so if we reset the  charts for this week you can see that crude oil is   bullish i am bullish on crude oil and i'm looking  for other advances into the 1138 what i'd like to   see first is any pullback in this area going to  be looking for bullish breakouts in crude oil   into the next care resistance as highlighted this  should also assist it should support the canadian   dollar to the upside and we looked in the futures  market we had that inverse head and shoulders big   break in the daily to the upside i think  we're going to be seeing some cad strength   coming into the markets over the next couple of  weeks next is EURUSD now EURUSD came and took   out the target set at the 1.0781 any pullback in  this market next week and this is essentially a  

post-interest rate decision trade because we had  the big sell-off and then we get the correction   any pullback is viewed as an opportunity to look  for bearish breakouts into the 1.07 to next is   USDCHF now we took out the target previously set  at 0.9405 going into next week this is a market   i really like highlighted in gold as one of my  best pairs one of my favorite pairs top six going   into next week we have a really strong breakout to  the upside really nice momentum so any correction   in this market is viewed as an opportunity to  look for bullish entries into the 0.9472 next   is USDJPY now USDJPY, NZDUSD and GBPUSD i am still  bullish the dollar versus these currencies however   they're not listed as my favorite as they all have  slight issues the yen coming into the boj has the   higher risk of correcting the pound is weak but  it's slightly strengthened in the scoring system   last week and the new zealand is kind of weak but  it's also bullish to neutral in the scoring system   so i would much prefer to focus on EURUSD,  USDCHFnext week but in terms of USDJPY we   took out both targets to the upside any pullback  in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look   for bullish breakouts into the 127.64 next is  NZDUSD took out the target to the downside 0.6793   i am looking for the declines in this market but  it scores bullish to neutral so again it doesn't   make one of my best setups or my best pairs  to focus on next week any pullback in this   market however is viewed as an opportunity to  look for bearish reversals down to the 0.6793  

and the final dollar pair heading into next  week is GBPUSD we took out the target almost   to the pip at 1.2979 as it currently stands i'm  just viewing this as a near-term correction and   any continued correction is viewed as simply  an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts   and if we start to break down like this i'm  going to be looking down towards the next key   of sports on the downside the target set at the  1.2854 it is a bit of a distance here so maybe   this takes a couple of weeks but either way i am  bearish on pound dollar next is EURAUD, EURAUD   is one of my favorite pairs heading into next week  we have a very strong australian dollar and we   also have a weak euro i'm just simply viewing this  as a near-term correction we actually also have   a head and shoulders pattern setting up here  looks to be in the right shoulder so any continued   correction here is simply going to be viewed as  an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down   to the next key of support at the 1.4431 once we  break this i am looking to come down take out the   previous lows over here the one point four three  two one next is AUDCHF highlighted as one of my   favorite six pairs going into next week because  of what we discussed earlier on in the swiss franc   any correction in this market next week is viewed  as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts   into first of all the previous highs and then  on to the next gear resistance at the 0.7122   next is AUDJPY took out the previous targets at  the 92-66 i am bullish on this market but i'm not   a huge fan of the JPY pairs as i said because of  the boj meet in a couple of weeks combined with   the fact that the yen is currently oversold  and looks like it needs to bounce near term   however if y'all can trade this any pullback  in this market would simply be viewed as an   opportunity to look for bullish breakouts  into the 94.44 next is AUDNZD now this is   actually a better setup i think than AUDJPY  because we had the interest rate decision   move like this and we've started to correct so  any continued pullback in this market is viewed   as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals  into the 1.1015 i think this move to the upside  

into this target is actually quite likely in this  pair but it's not scored as one of my favorite   because of the bullish neutral rating in the new  zealand dollar next is GBPAUD now GBPAUD does look   like actually a really nice setup i am looking  for the declines and the next target is the 1.7174   unlikely to come all the way down to this target  next week however i do think we come down here in   the next couple of weeks perhaps maybe three weeks  but i think we could certainly come down in the   next two weeks i am viewing this as a near-term  correction when we look at the currency scorecards   we can see that the pound has strengthened from  minus two to minus one but it's still bearish so   it's telling me that this is likely to roll over  to the downside at some point and so any break   to the downside like this is simply going to be  viewed as an opportunity to look for a pullback   and i'm going to be looking further declines into  the 1.7174 next is EURCAD and this is a market i'm   going to be keeping a very close eye on next week  we are trending to the downside and we have also   as of last week broken a head and shoulders this  is more than likely when you have this pattern   in a downtrend the start of the next bear leg  to the downside and we're quite close to this   breakout level so any correction is viewed as an  opportunity to look for shorts into the 1.3523 and   as you can see there's a huge gap there's nothing  but air between these two levels here maybe again   it takes a couple of weeks to get down here but  once we break the 1.3523 we could see some strong  

momentum to the downside because there's no real  support in between these levels so once we break   here i am looking for the declines into the 1.3249  just bear in mind it may take a couple of weeks   to get here though but EURCAD looks like one of  the best shorts heading into next week and the   final pair out of my top six favorite pairs here  highlighted in gold going into next week is CADCHF   we discussed the big breakdown in the swiss franc  last week and we also discussed the fact that the   canadian dollar should stand to benefit from the  break to the upside in crude oil and we also had   the inverse head and shoulders breaking the daily  in the canadian dollar to the upside so based on   what we're looking at this break to the upside  in CADCHF to me actually looks like it could be   the start of a much bigger move to the upside we  have 0.7522 as a near-term target next week for   short-term profit taking but do not be surprised  to see this pulling back and for this to be a one   a two wave and then a big explosive third  wave coming which could last a month or so   even and i'm just viewing this as it currently  stands here as an a b c correction and so i am   keeping a very close eye on this market next week  any pullback is viewed as the opportunity to start   to look for that breakout into 0.7522 and as i say  we could very well see this breaking if this is a  

third wave we're going to see this breaking the  0.7522 on to the 0.75 and possibly even higher   cad yen took out the previous target set i am  bullish on cad yen for all the reasons discussed   in this video however again it's not one of my  favorite because of the boj meeting coming up   any pullback is still viewed as a potential  opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into   the 101.14 next is GBPCAD now this is actually  quite a good setup and outside of my top six   pairs next week the two that i probably like the  best are AUDNZD to the upside and pound cat to the   downside if you look here we have an inverse head  and shoulders breakout to the upside right here   and so you may be saying well john that's bullish  so shouldn't we be going along but take everything   combined what we've discussed in this video the  pound is most likely going to roll over this is   most likely going to fail to break to the upside  and so what we have here is kind of like a failure   trade so when you have the buyers stepping in and  buying this to the upside but they're not doing   the homework they're not looking at the bigger  picture here we can be on the other side of this   and when they're buying we're selling anticipating  for this to roll over to the downside so any break   lower in this market is viewed as an opportunity  to look for bearish setups into the 1.6297   and the final forex pair before we move on to  gold silver and bitcoin is NZDCAD any pullback   in this market would be viewed as an opportunity  to look for shorts into the 0.8509 however if we   come down and take out this target first and  then bounce because we are very close to this   target i'm going to be looking further declines  into the 0.8406 wrapping up with gold silver and   bitcoin now XAUUSD and XAUUSD actually both look  like buys which is interesting because we have   a strong dollar but they're still both bullish  and they're breaking out last week any pullback   in XAUUSD is viewed as an opportunity to  look for bullish reversals into the 2002.63

now as you can see i've highlighted in XAUUSD here  gold and silver but i've highlighted them against   the euro because if you want to get involved  in gold and silver it would be better to trade   those priced in euros because when we look at  scorecards the euro is the weaker currency and   therefore you should see more explosive moves  to the upside vis-a-vis the euro than the dollar   when you're talking about gold and silver next is  gold priced in euros any pullback in this market   is simply viewed as a correction and i'm going to  be looking for bullish breakouts into the 1900.61 next is XAGUSD any pullback in this market  is viewed as an opportunity to look for long   positions although while the dollar is strong  i would much prefer to be trading these with   a weaker dollar so any pullback is viewed as  an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts   into the 26.91 but again similar to gold if  you're trading silver i would much prefer   to trade it versus the euro so silver  versus euros any pullback in this market   is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish  breakouts i'm going to be looking into the 24.7   and in fact this is a major breakout level if we  come up and take out the 2470 look to see if this   breaks with momentum because if it does and you're  involved you really want to be holding on to this   because this break of this high over here could  very well be the next leg to the upside in silver   priced in euros and last but not least we have  bitcoin bitcoin is bearish for me as it currently   stands any pullback in this market is suffering  with the stronger dollar and the sell-off in the   stock market any pullback is currently viewed as  a near-term correction further downside this is   just a big bear flag and any pullback is views an  opportunity to look for shorts into the 38 000.003   so that is it for me for this week guys as  always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next week   the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-04-18 17:55

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