Weekly Forex Forecast (18/04/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
hey traders it's john fortune here with this week's weekly forex forecast hope you're having a fantastic weekend i was unable to do the video last week however i'm back this week and there does look to be a lot of really good opportunities coming up in the markets next week so i'm excited to get stuck in next week we're going to go through the same format as we usually do however there is one change i have temporarily removed the stock analysis because when i asked previously you guys seem to prefer to have the stocks separate in a second video and so from now on this video will only be for forex it will only be the weekly forex forecast and i'm going to be working on a separate second video for a stocks forecast which we can do and that video will be released separately so as i say i have removed the stock analysis although it's only temporary and if you want to follow along with stock updates and stock indices updates in the meantime feel free to follow me on twitter because i will post updates not just on forex but also on the stock markets on twitter in the meantime so as always let's just have a very brief review of the economic calendar to see what we have coming up and what we had last week because it's important last week we did have an interest rate out of new zealand an interest rate out of canada and we also had an interest rate decision out of the eu so those three pairs and especially canada when we go and have a look at the markets is very interesting to me the new zealand pairs also look quite good but canada is something we're going to be paying attention to i'm also going to look at crude oil and why a breakout now in crude oil is likely to have a positive effect on the cad pairs and it's one of the reasons i like the cad pairs going into next week coming up you can see on monday we do have some bank holidays here so i wouldn't be surprised if monday was a little bit slow apart from that there is really nothing else we need to pay attention to we have some cpi data and we have the fed chair power speaking but there's nothing here in terms of interest rates that we really need to pay attention to in terms of short-term trades and if we skip ahead one more week you can see again a little bit of cpi and we have a interest rate decision out of the boj but nothing we really need to plan for in advance we have a pretty clear run for the next couple of weeks in the economic calendar if we move on to the scorecards you can see that the two changes that took place from last week are a slight increase in the strength of the pound score and the swiss franc which went from neutral to -1 now the swiss frank is probably the most interesting currency to me going into next week and we're going to see why in this video i think the swiss franc pairs could be the best place or one of the best places to make money next week and possibly even for the next few weeks because as we've gone from zero to minus one you're going to see when we look at the individual currencies we actually have a breakout in the swiss franc to the downside and you have to bear in mind this is in line with what the swiss national bank want they want to see the evaluation of the swiss franc so when you're in this position where you get a downward breakout or a bearish breakout of the swiss franc this is a great opportunity this is really something we want to be paying attention to because we have the wind in our sails from the smb the smb policy is a tailwind to any short swiss franc positions we're looking to take so not a lot of changes from last week and the australian dollar still remains the strongest currency although it slightly came off an overbought score which we had in previous videos not last week but in previous videos we had a score of four which is overbought and the us dollar which gained strongly and performed very well last week is second place i do like dollar long positions going into next week the cad is plus two and the cad is also something you want to be paying attention to we had the interest rate decision last week and i think we're likely now to get moves directional moves in the cad pairs and certainly it's going to be something we're going to be looking at in this video and we also as i said earlier we're going to look at crude oil and the breakout that we're now getting in crude oil to the upside which is also likely to feed into any long canadian dollar positions and on the weak side we still have the euro as one of the best shorts the japanese yen has been on our list as one of the best shorts really since the start of the big down move and i posted that on twitter we pretty much turned bearish on this just as it broke out and had that hu basically just collapsed to the downside and it is still bearish but with the jpy being over sold with a score of -4 and it's been oversold for a number of weeks now and with the boj coming up in two weeks i would not be surprised to see the japanese yen get a little bit corrective over the next week or so so although this has been one of the best shorts recently if we're going to start to see the japanese yen coming up off the bottom and we're going to start to see a little bit of correction coming into this big sell-off we've had it's probably going to happen in the next two weeks before the boj meeting so for that reason jpy shorts although we're going to look at them in today's video they're not going to be highlighted as some of my favorite pairs going into next week i think the risk of the jpy coming off the oversold levels over the next two weeks ahead of boj has actually increased now so to the downside the two best currencies that are like this week are the euro and the swiss franc even though the swiss franc is the same score as the pound the difference is the swiss franc has broken bearish from a neutral state whereas the pound has kind of strengthened from a neutral state so i prefer swiss franc shorts going into this week over pound shorts for that reason and euro shorts are alongside the swiss franc looking like the best plays heading into next week as well so i do like and we're going to be looking at EURAUD to the downside i'm also going to be looking at aussie frank to the upside we will also look at pound ozzy and aussie yen but as i said i prefer swiss franc and euro shorts next week i also really like us dollar long positions we're going to look at us dollar swiss franc to the upside is a really nice pair i like EURUSD to the downside again we'll look at GBPUSD and also USDJPY and the same applies for the cad pairs i really like cad frank where we're seeing a potential major breakout to the upside we're going to look at and also EURCAD to the downside and outside of those two pairs we're going to be looking also at GBPCAD to the downside and cad yen to the upside but again heading into next week i'm really looking to prioritize those euro and swiss franc shorts against the aussie the us dollar and the cad so if we have a quick look at the individual currencies and this is important this week because there's a couple of things being thrown up here that we really need to pay attention to in the individual currencies in the futures markets which are signals for next week and are going to really help us out the first thing is that the dxy and we're looking in the daily chart here just to have an overall picture of what we're seeing we took out the target set previously at the 100.52 this was actually last week's target although we didn't do a video last week i did post this on twitter as the target was taken out last week and now we're taking this out i am going to be looking for further advances to the upside in the dxy the next target is the 101.74 so i am favoring dollar long positions once again going into next week and really just confirming here technically what we're looking at in the scorecards next is the euro euro really again confirming what we're looking at in the scorecards any pullback in this market i am going to be looking further declines and euros shorts as i say are one of the primary things i'm going to be looking at this week next is the pound we did take out the target to the downside in pound last week and i am now looking further declines into the 1.2857 so again nothing here that scorecards are not already telling us next is the swiss franc now this is where just having a cursory look at the individual currencies in the futures markets really gives us an important signal outside of the scorecards next week this breakdown in the swiss franc is really something i'm going to be paying attention to next week you can see that we had a head and shoulders break here in the daily and that was confirmed on a break below here and this is very likely the start of a bigger move to the downside in us dollar swiss franc and if this is going to be the breakout of this very very choppy correction we've been seeing recently we could be seeing some very explosive moves to the downside in the swiss franc over the next even couple of months but that would be starting next week having broken this near-term head and shoulders to the downside and broken it with momentum i mean look at this this is indicating further declines are coming in the swiss franc well if that's the case this is something i want to be prioritizing next week and keeping a very close eye on looking to position in some of those stronger currencies against it us dollar swiss franc aussie swiss franc cad frank primarily to take advantage of further declines in the swiss franc so in the scorecards we see it go from neutral zero to minus one but when we look and confirm in the futures markets what we're looking at in the scorecards we can see we could very well be seeing the swiss franc going to minus two minus three maybe even minus four in the scorecards over the next couple of weeks if this is the start of a major break to the downside and what could stop that while the swiss national bank could step in but they're not going to because they want to see the swiss franc devalued so there is really nothing i can see in the near term aside from a market crash and a flight safety somewhat into the swiss franc there is nothing i can see immediately in the next couple of months which is going to prevent further declines in the swiss franc next is the japanese yen now as i just said we turned bearish first in the scorecards over in this area we turned -2 for the first time and we had this massive sell-off in the japanese yen we took out both targets to the downside last week and so i am bearish on the japanese yen i would absolutely not under any circumstances go out and start buying japanese yen however because it's oversold and because we have the boj coming up in two weeks i'm not going to be prioritizing yen pairs we're going to look at say us dollar yen aussie yen but i prefer the euro and the frank pairs next week because of that risk of a bounce or a correction in the end just maybe even near term over the next two weeks into the boj meeting so still bearish overall on the end but it's not one of my favorite shorts heading into next week next is the cad the cad is technically bullish and we did take out the target at the 0.8040
and interestingly in the canadian dollar as well alongside as we're going to see very shortly a break to the upside in crude oil we have also this target here was a break of a major inverse head and shoulders so having got very very choppy since really last july of 2022 we could now be seeing a breakout to the upside in the canadian dollar and we may see the canadian dollar now catching up with the recent volatility to the upside we've seen in crude oil so i'm going to be keeping a very close eye on the canadian dollar pairs to the upside next week and certainly looking at this and also what we discussed in the swiss franc cad frank is a market that you want to keep your eye on over the next couple of weeks or so and starting next week we could see bigger moves to the upside in cad frank so this is really one of my best pairs that i'm going to be focused on next week australian dollar coming from the overbought levels in the scorecards and we're starting to sell off as profit taking came in we took out the target set i am still bullish on the australian dollar and i'm looking for a continuation into the 0.7673 over the next couple of weeks and finally the new zealand dollar and again this is where matching the scores with the futures markets helps us out because the new zealand dollar is actually quite weak although we have a score of plus one what i'm seeing here in the futures markets is telling me that i do not really want to be going out and buying new zealand dollar it's not a great buy and even though it's got a score of plus one which is kind of bullish to neutral i would avoid buying new zealand pairs next week okay so let's look at the markets themselves starting with crude oil and we came and took out the previous target to the pip the 93.38 before reversing higher breaking out of this downward move here so if we reset the charts for this week you can see that crude oil is bullish i am bullish on crude oil and i'm looking for other advances into the 1138 what i'd like to see first is any pullback in this area going to be looking for bullish breakouts in crude oil into the next care resistance as highlighted this should also assist it should support the canadian dollar to the upside and we looked in the futures market we had that inverse head and shoulders big break in the daily to the upside i think we're going to be seeing some cad strength coming into the markets over the next couple of weeks next is EURUSD now EURUSD came and took out the target set at the 1.0781 any pullback in this market next week and this is essentially a
post-interest rate decision trade because we had the big sell-off and then we get the correction any pullback is viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts into the 1.07 to next is USDCHF now we took out the target previously set at 0.9405 going into next week this is a market i really like highlighted in gold as one of my best pairs one of my favorite pairs top six going into next week we have a really strong breakout to the upside really nice momentum so any correction in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish entries into the 0.9472 next is USDJPY now USDJPY, NZDUSD and GBPUSD i am still bullish the dollar versus these currencies however they're not listed as my favorite as they all have slight issues the yen coming into the boj has the higher risk of correcting the pound is weak but it's slightly strengthened in the scoring system last week and the new zealand is kind of weak but it's also bullish to neutral in the scoring system so i would much prefer to focus on EURUSD, USDCHFnext week but in terms of USDJPY we took out both targets to the upside any pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into the 127.64 next is NZDUSD took out the target to the downside 0.6793 i am looking for the declines in this market but it scores bullish to neutral so again it doesn't make one of my best setups or my best pairs to focus on next week any pullback in this market however is viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the 0.6793
and the final dollar pair heading into next week is GBPUSD we took out the target almost to the pip at 1.2979 as it currently stands i'm just viewing this as a near-term correction and any continued correction is viewed as simply an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts and if we start to break down like this i'm going to be looking down towards the next key of sports on the downside the target set at the 1.2854 it is a bit of a distance here so maybe this takes a couple of weeks but either way i am bearish on pound dollar next is EURAUD, EURAUD is one of my favorite pairs heading into next week we have a very strong australian dollar and we also have a weak euro i'm just simply viewing this as a near-term correction we actually also have a head and shoulders pattern setting up here looks to be in the right shoulder so any continued correction here is simply going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next key of support at the 1.4431 once we break this i am looking to come down take out the previous lows over here the one point four three two one next is AUDCHF highlighted as one of my favorite six pairs going into next week because of what we discussed earlier on in the swiss franc any correction in this market next week is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into first of all the previous highs and then on to the next gear resistance at the 0.7122 next is AUDJPY took out the previous targets at the 92-66 i am bullish on this market but i'm not a huge fan of the JPY pairs as i said because of the boj meet in a couple of weeks combined with the fact that the yen is currently oversold and looks like it needs to bounce near term however if y'all can trade this any pullback in this market would simply be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into the 94.44 next is AUDNZD now this is actually a better setup i think than AUDJPY because we had the interest rate decision move like this and we've started to correct so any continued pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals into the 1.1015 i think this move to the upside
into this target is actually quite likely in this pair but it's not scored as one of my favorite because of the bullish neutral rating in the new zealand dollar next is GBPAUD now GBPAUD does look like actually a really nice setup i am looking for the declines and the next target is the 1.7174 unlikely to come all the way down to this target next week however i do think we come down here in the next couple of weeks perhaps maybe three weeks but i think we could certainly come down in the next two weeks i am viewing this as a near-term correction when we look at the currency scorecards we can see that the pound has strengthened from minus two to minus one but it's still bearish so it's telling me that this is likely to roll over to the downside at some point and so any break to the downside like this is simply going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for a pullback and i'm going to be looking further declines into the 1.7174 next is EURCAD and this is a market i'm going to be keeping a very close eye on next week we are trending to the downside and we have also as of last week broken a head and shoulders this is more than likely when you have this pattern in a downtrend the start of the next bear leg to the downside and we're quite close to this breakout level so any correction is viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts into the 1.3523 and as you can see there's a huge gap there's nothing but air between these two levels here maybe again it takes a couple of weeks to get down here but once we break the 1.3523 we could see some strong
momentum to the downside because there's no real support in between these levels so once we break here i am looking for the declines into the 1.3249 just bear in mind it may take a couple of weeks to get here though but EURCAD looks like one of the best shorts heading into next week and the final pair out of my top six favorite pairs here highlighted in gold going into next week is CADCHF we discussed the big breakdown in the swiss franc last week and we also discussed the fact that the canadian dollar should stand to benefit from the break to the upside in crude oil and we also had the inverse head and shoulders breaking the daily in the canadian dollar to the upside so based on what we're looking at this break to the upside in CADCHF to me actually looks like it could be the start of a much bigger move to the upside we have 0.7522 as a near-term target next week for short-term profit taking but do not be surprised to see this pulling back and for this to be a one a two wave and then a big explosive third wave coming which could last a month or so even and i'm just viewing this as it currently stands here as an a b c correction and so i am keeping a very close eye on this market next week any pullback is viewed as the opportunity to start to look for that breakout into 0.7522 and as i say we could very well see this breaking if this is a
third wave we're going to see this breaking the 0.7522 on to the 0.75 and possibly even higher cad yen took out the previous target set i am bullish on cad yen for all the reasons discussed in this video however again it's not one of my favorite because of the boj meeting coming up any pullback is still viewed as a potential opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into the 101.14 next is GBPCAD now this is actually quite a good setup and outside of my top six pairs next week the two that i probably like the best are AUDNZD to the upside and pound cat to the downside if you look here we have an inverse head and shoulders breakout to the upside right here and so you may be saying well john that's bullish so shouldn't we be going along but take everything combined what we've discussed in this video the pound is most likely going to roll over this is most likely going to fail to break to the upside and so what we have here is kind of like a failure trade so when you have the buyers stepping in and buying this to the upside but they're not doing the homework they're not looking at the bigger picture here we can be on the other side of this and when they're buying we're selling anticipating for this to roll over to the downside so any break lower in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish setups into the 1.6297 and the final forex pair before we move on to gold silver and bitcoin is NZDCAD any pullback in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts into the 0.8509 however if we come down and take out this target first and then bounce because we are very close to this target i'm going to be looking further declines into the 0.8406 wrapping up with gold silver and bitcoin now XAUUSD and XAUUSD actually both look like buys which is interesting because we have a strong dollar but they're still both bullish and they're breaking out last week any pullback in XAUUSD is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals into the 2002.63
now as you can see i've highlighted in XAUUSD here gold and silver but i've highlighted them against the euro because if you want to get involved in gold and silver it would be better to trade those priced in euros because when we look at scorecards the euro is the weaker currency and therefore you should see more explosive moves to the upside vis-a-vis the euro than the dollar when you're talking about gold and silver next is gold priced in euros any pullback in this market is simply viewed as a correction and i'm going to be looking for bullish breakouts into the 1900.61 next is XAGUSD any pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for long positions although while the dollar is strong i would much prefer to be trading these with a weaker dollar so any pullback is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into the 26.91 but again similar to gold if you're trading silver i would much prefer to trade it versus the euro so silver versus euros any pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts i'm going to be looking into the 24.7 and in fact this is a major breakout level if we come up and take out the 2470 look to see if this breaks with momentum because if it does and you're involved you really want to be holding on to this because this break of this high over here could very well be the next leg to the upside in silver priced in euros and last but not least we have bitcoin bitcoin is bearish for me as it currently stands any pullback in this market is suffering with the stronger dollar and the sell-off in the stock market any pullback is currently viewed as a near-term correction further downside this is just a big bear flag and any pullback is views an opportunity to look for shorts into the 38 000.003 so that is it for me for this week guys as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2022-04-18 17:55