Weekly Forex Forecast (12/12/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's  weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having a   great weekend next week is a big week we have four  interest rate decisions and so picking your trades   carefully next week is going to be key and I'm  going to show you in today's video how I think   that can be done with the Forex Majors okay so  quick look at the economic calendar you can see   not only do we have four interest rate decisions  coming up next week but we also have inflation   data out of the US this is very very important  because the inflation data has been a big driver   of the dollar and as the global Reserve currency  this has been driving other markets as well so   on Tuesday we have the inflation data out of the  US and then on Wednesday we have fomc out of the   US and then we have interest rate decisions on  Thursday out of Switzerland out of the UK out of   the EU so this is why I say picking your trades  carefully next week is going to be key and the   final day to point to really pay attention to was  this PPI inflation data out of the us on Friday   why is this important because it came out hotter  than expected and PPI tends to lead CPI because   what that's telling you is inflation or prices for  businesses went up over the course of the month   more than expected and usually businesses pass  those on to the consumer so this adds weight to   the idea that we may actually see slightly hotter  than expected inflation out of the US on Tuesday   so just bear that in mind okay so quick look at  the scorecards before moving on to the charts   and you can see in the previous weekly Forex  forecast it has been the Canadian dollar that   I've been highlighting as the best opportunity  in the majors and CAD shorts have been fantastic   opportunities over the last couple of weeks coming  into this week CAD shorts are still highlighted as   the best opportunity in the Forex complex although  they may be slightly overextended as it currently   stands I think we're going to need some pullbacks  near term first we'll look at that when we look   at the charts but CAD shorts are still number  one priority on my shortlist in terms of the   Forex markets and to the upside I would like to be  looking at the cad Visa V the pound the Euro the   New Zealand the Yen and also the Swiss franc but  we're also going to be looking at the Aussie and   the dollar vis-a-vis some of these markets as well  like uh pound Aussie to the upside Euro Aussie   to the upside Aussie New Zealand so the downside  Aussie Yen to the downside now going to next week   because we have the CPI data and fomc we we are  going to look at a couple of opportunities in the   US dollar which means we can be reactive from the  events as opposed to trying to predict them so I   am going to be looking at a couple of dollar pairs  which will benefit from Dollar strength and setups   which will benefit from Dollar strength from those  news events next week and also we're going to look   at a couple of US dollar short opportunities next  week again waiting for those events to take place   seeing which way the momentum goes and then  looking for the follow through being reactive   in terms of trading the US dollar next week okay  so quick look at the individual currencies here   just as it's good practice to look at these I  know they mirror some of the pairs you know dxy   mirrors euro dollar Etc but it is good practice  to look at the individual currencies especially   in the daily chart just to get a bigger picture  view of what's going on before looking at the   pairs now with the dxy you can see we had a big  sell-off to the downside and we are sitting right   at a previous low which was actually the previous  Target and we're struggling here and not only are   we struggling here but we're failing really to  break the loads with momentum this is usually the   precursor to a reversal although these are just  the technicals really we know that next week CPI   and fomc are going to have the big effect on the  dollar and that those are going to be the main   drivers of the dollar next week so depending  on what happens in those events that is what   I think is going to capitalize the next move in  the dollar so what we really want to do with the   dollar Pairs and I think the dollar pairs are  going to provide some of the best opportunities   next week why because we have those dollar  events right at the beginning of the week we do   have the EU interest rate decision later which  can affect the dollar but because we have those   dollar events at the beginning of the week we  get them out the way and it basically sets up   the rest of the week for follow through in those  markets the other pairs which involve the pound   the Swiss franc and the Euro the problem with  having interest rates you know out on a Thursday   is you may find those markets just correct and  chop and do nothing pretty much all week into   Thursday that's why in order of what we're looking  at on the right hand side I like the Yen pairs the   best next week because we don't have the risk  event per se although because they're risk on   risk off you know if you get a strong rally in the  dollar this is likely to put downward pressure on   Aussie Yen uh cadient Etc but generally speaking  they are avoiding that risk event directly and   then after the end pairs which are my favorite  plays next week I like the dollar pairs because   the dollar pairs have that risk event early on  in the week and then after that you can look at   the pound uh the Euro and the Frank pit but I  do you think next week if you can just take a   couple of pairs probably after the US data and  they work out or the Yen pairs that's really all   you're going to need next week it's not a week  to be taking huge amounts of risk so I do think   on balance we probably see the dollar snacking  back and you're going to see in the New Zealand   dollar why I think the dollar itself is in a bit  of a place where this has more upside risk than   downside risk and I do think we're going to see  at least a correction at least correction in the   dxy near term next is the Euro now the euro is  doing the same but just inversely struggling at   the highs here we do have the four year break out  of the 1.06710 so do we pop up a bit higher before   CPI and fomc and then reverse maybe but I do think  those events next week more than likely although   we're going to be looking at opportunities to  the upside or the downside in the dollar based   on what happens I do think if I had to guess that  it's going to catalyze a reversal in the Euro and   a reversal to the upside in the dxy so out of  all of these markets the Euro pairs are really   exposed to the news next week because we have  the US data coming out Tuesday Wednesday and then   on Thursday we've got the Euro data so those are  markets that could get very choppy next week next   is the pound we have the flash crash and we've  been correcting ever since and we've had such   a strong rally here that we took out the previous  High which was highlighted as the target last week   and we're just kind of stalling out here so again  we do have the US dollar data which is likely to   affect the pound and the UK data so this Market  could get quite choppy but I do think we're in an   area where this could also start to roll over to  the downside next is the Swiss franc I highlighted   in previous videos the significance of this move  this is the kind of move you see generally in big   risk-off events and you can see this was a major  double bottom confirmed over here and we're not   failing here you know we've broken this double  bottom confirmed it and if this was going to fail   and roll over you would usually start to see this  failing and rolling over pretty soon the fact that   we can solidated underneath here and we're making  higher lows and now we're breaking the higher   gain that is actually indicative of a bigger  breakout and I do think you need to pay a lot   of attention to the Swiss franc pairs because they  are potentially on the verge of major breakouts so   of course if the Swiss franc breaks higher and we  go into a third wave here after we've Consolidated   right underneath this confirmation here of this  double bottom that would be Aussie Frank to the   downside CAD Frank to the downside Etc next is the  Yen this has been one of the bigger beneficiaries   of the dxy sell-off and we are now stair stepping  we had a big move we have started to have a short   covering rally and we are breaking a minor inverse  Head and Shoulders here and I say minor because   it's on the daily this is not Head and Shoulders  on the bigger you know weekly monthly quarterly   but it is still very significant even though it's  on the daily this is a significant reversal and   we are consolidating above the previous high now  if the Japanese Yen maybe it comes back and flags   a bit like this I still think this is an area  you really want to be keeping your eye on the   Yen pairs because a push-up High here especially  when you get a pattern like this which confirms   pulls back retest the breakout point that is very  often when you see Sharp moves so keep your eye   on the Japanese Yen alongside the Swiss franc it  does seem to be indicating quite a big risk-off   event incoming next is the Canadian dollar now I  have been highlighting that this should just be   considered a big bear flag and we are heading  back down to the lows and probably onto the   0.7088 we have started to roll over but bear this  chart in mind when we look at the other commodity   currencies of Aussie and New Zealand why because  they have not yet started to roll over but I do   believe what you're seeing here in the Canadian  dollar where this is starting to roll over back to   the lows I do believe this is exactly what you're  likely to see in the near future in the Australian   dollar and also the New Zealand dollar and as  those markets do that I do think that's when   we're going to see a snapback in the dxy because  as commodity currencies we can you tend to see the   money going into the safer Haven assets like the  dollar and the Swiss franc in the Yen which bear   in mind what we just looked at also look like  they're set for bigger appreciations next is   the Aussie again likely going to be determined by  the events going on next week you know on a risk   on risk off basis even though it's not directly  looking at an interest rate decision itself but   again you should be considering this a big bear  flag and we're really struggling at the highs   here we had a massive outside day over here and  we're kind of slightly recovering nothing to say   we can't come back up and retest the highs maybe  push a bit higher but in terms of risk reward it   does look like we're starting to get to the point  where upside is fairly limited and downside very   much all the way down to the lows and onto the  0.6124 now compare this to what we just looked  

at in the end and this sets up some potentially  bigger moves as I've been highlighting on Twitter   in markets like Aussie Yen and finally if we look  at the New Zealand dollar you can see this has   been the strongest of the commodity currencies  and that's not really surprising because it's   been highlighted in the score cards as the  most likely commodity currency to outperform   and that's exactly what's happened and if you look  at this this is not offset I want to show you this   in the bigger picture because this goes back to  what I was talking about in the dollar being in   an area now where upside is in my opinion the  much greater risk than downside and I know the   New Zealand dollar is not in the dollar Index  but it does move inversely with the Dollar on   a risk on risk off basis you can see over here  in 12 weeks the New Zealand dollar crashed 19   and within that crash was a recession and the  2020 Cove it sell-off which saw a flight safety   and if you look at the 13 weeks from the low we  rallied 20 percent in the New Zealand dollar and   that was on Max stimulus from the Federal Reserve  well over the last nine weeks in the New Zealand   dollar we've rallied 17 17 nearly the same as we  rallied not far off it only three percent in the   13 weeks after Max stimulus from the Federal  Reserve was put into the system we're looking   at a nine week 17 rally in the New Zealand dollar  in the face of renewed tightening next week from   the Federal Reserve so what we're looking at here  really is not aligning with the macro fundamentals   and I do think it's only a matter of time that  this short squeeze this short covering rally in   the New Zealand which was really given fuel by  that soft CPI print we saw recently out of the   US I do think this starts to roll over and I do  think there's a very good chance we're coming   down to 0.54660 possibly in q1 of next year okay  so let's look at the markets themselves starting   with crude oil we took out both targets to  the downside last week crude oil has been a   great short and in fact right in this area was  a fantastic opportunity to short this went out   as a note to members and we had a really good  sell-off and we're struggling now we've traded   into those lows we are struggling in crude oil I  do really like crude or short but very much like   the cad pairs I think we need to see a correction  first so any pullback in this area is viewed as an   opportunity to look for shorts once again down to  the 67.90 keep your eye on this yes it may need a   correction first but I do think crude oil to the  downside is a fantastic opportunity one of the   better ones that we're looking at here next week  next is cadien Cadian has also been a fantastic   short we have this consolidation and then after  we broke to consolidation we had a down leg and   it looks like we're consolidating a bit so again  I do think the chances are we pull back into this   area any pullback in this area is viewed as an  opportunity in cadient to look for shorts down to   the 97.80 again we do not have the interest rate  decision directly from the cad or the year next  

week so I think this is one of the best pairs to  look at next week just bear in mind it will likely   be affected by the other events going on but I  think this is one of the best markets to look at   next week next is Aussie Yen now normally we look  down in order of these but we're doing it slightly   different this week because of the events going  on Aussie Yen also doesn't have directly interest   rate decision so after cadion I do like Aussie Yen  these are my two top pairs heading into next week   alongside crude oil and also we're going to look  at gold and silver but any pullback in this area   continued pullback because we've already started  correct just viewing this simply as a Bear Flag   any pullback is viewed as an opportunity to start  to look for shorts in Aussie Yen down to the 90.53   but to get here we would have to break the 90.834  now anybody who follows me on Twitter will know   this is a major Head and Shoulders reversal point  in Aussie Yen so if we break that with momentum   you may actually want to consider whether you  book your profits at the 90.53 because we could   be coming down in a much bigger way in this market  once we break the 90.83 next is pound CAD now we   do not have an interest rate decision out of the  pound until later on in the week Thursday so there   is a good window of opportunity before Thursday  to get involved with this Market I think all these   CAD pairs are dual correction and so any pullback  is viewed as an opportunity to look for Longs   into the 1.6828 just bear in mind every Market  highlighted in blue has exposure to the events  

that are going on next week so these markets  carry risk event in truth they all carry risk   event because of the dollar and the Euro Etc but  these are the most exposed to the events going on   next week so if you want to avoid that risk event  altogether there's nothing wrong with just looking   at the opportunities which are not highlighted in  blue next week next is eurocad now any pullback in   this market is viewed as an opportunity to look  for bullish breakouts I'm going to be looking   up towards the 1.4629 it is on the list because  of the asset selection of the scorecards however   again it does carry event risk next week so if you  want to avoid those as I said just don't trade the   ones in blue next is CAD Frank we're quite close  to the Target here so what I'd like to see is I'd   like to see this pull back probably taking out  this high so we get a proper correction here that   is going to be the opportunity next week to start  to look for bearish reversals perhaps we get that   off of the interest rate decision on Thursday so  we correct into the interest rate decisions in   these and then we get the sell-off in direction  of the scorecards that would be fantastic for a   follow through trade down to the 0.6818 next is  New Zealand CAD now this rally in New Zealand   CAD has been somewhat outrageous when you go  and look at it on the weekly chart I do still   favor moves to the upside in this market so any  pullback next week is viewed as an opportunity   and it's not directly exposed to the events like  these markets in blue but you are going to see   this affected probably by fomc and even the CPI  data because of the states of the dollar but any   correction is views an opportunity to look for  Longs into 0.8807 next to the Aussie pairs but   the ones which are exposed to that risk event  outside of the Yen and you can see last week we   took out the target at the 1.8190 going into this  week we're already correcting and consolidating   so any breakout of this correction is viewed as an  opportunity to start to look for bullish setups in   to the 1.8508 your Aussie another Market which  took out the target last week we are already   consolidating so what I'd be looking for is  any reversal in this market again perhaps this   comes on Thursday perhaps you have to wait for  these events because very often these can just   correct and consolidate and then we get the rally  on Thursday if that's the case look for the follow   through to the upside into the 1.5839 next is  Aussie Frank now Aussie Frank is a very very  

interesting Market because we're setting up quite  a big head and shoulders here we have that event   on Thursday out of Switzerland however this is out  of all of them this is probably the news event I   would be most likely to get involved with is those  Frank pairs before Thursday any continued pullback   in this market I do think this represents  a good opportunity to look for shorts if we   break the low here we could see this breaking  with momentum because of the size of this and   I'm going to be looking down to in the near term  0.6208 and the final Aussie pair here is Aussie   Island we started to pull back any continued  pullback would be great as it gives us better   risk towards towards the target any pullback is  viewed as an opportunity to start to look for   shorts into the 1.0518 okay so moving on to the  dollar Pairs and I am going to be interested in   the dollar pairs post CPI and fomc next week and  the dollar pairs that I actually like the most are   gold and silver why because we do also have the  Euro interest rate decision later on in the week   which can affect the dollar and also especially  the Euro with euro dollar however gold and silver   tend to be slightly less affected by those other  interest rate decisions and risk events therefore   I do think the best long short opportunities for  the dollar pairs post CPI and fomc next week will   be in gold and silver and it will be gold to the  downside silver to the upside that I'm primarily   interested in however in terms of the Forex pairs  we are also going to look at these four here and   the first two euro dollar an Aussie dollar are  based on dollar strength post CPI fomc if we get   urologists correcting consolidating and then we  get a rally in the dollar from those news events   I'm going to be looking for a pullback and follow  through in euro dollar to the downside and the   next big support area is all the way down 0.9977  the second dollar power I'd be interested in next   week post fomc and CPI if we get dollar strength  is Aussie dollar now if we start to correct maybe   we even test the highs one more time and then  we sell off with a dollar Rally post fomc or CPI   I'm going to be looking for a follow through and  I'm going to be looking for shorts down towards   the 0.6493 the next two dollar pairs are based on  dollar weakness from CPI from C if we get dollar  

weakness what I'd be looking for here especially  the yen to be one of the best beneficiaries of   that as it has been recently any continued  pullback and then a reverse muscle to the   downside from CPI rfomc I'm going to be looking  for a follow through trade down to the 133.59 and   if we break through here onto the 130.62 and the  second Forex pair I'd be interested in if we get   dollar weakness from CPI fomc is pound dollar any  pullback in this area and then we get a rally so   we get a correction and then a rally from CPI from  C I would be looking for a follow-through trade to   the upside into the 1.2458 okay so wrapping up  with gold and silver and starting with the gold  

silver ratio you can see gold is trending to the  downside here and I am looking for the declines   in the gold silver ratio that means I would prefer  to be short gold and long silver heading into next   week and that's why based on what happens with  the dollar if the dollar strengthens I would   prefer to short gold and if the dollar weakens  from fom ccpi I would prefer to be long silver   so starting with gold we did come up and take out  the target at the 1807 16. so any continued move   higher in Gold if we then get a sell-off a sharp  sell-off from cpifemc I'm going to be looking for   a consolidation and I'm going to be looking for  a follow-through trade down towards the 1681.76   doesn't have to happen all in one week but that  is the next key of support to the downside next   is silver now silver is on the long side here so  if we get a correction and a consolidation and   then we get a weak dollar post CPI fomc and we  get that initial rally that Spike to the upside   in silver I'm going to be looking for a correction  and a pullback and a follow-through trade into the   2405 and if we break through here onto the 24 six  seven so to summarize if we get a strong dollar   from CPI fomc I'm going to be looking first and  foremost at Gold shorts then euro dollar shorts   Aussie dollar shorts and if we get a weak dollar  or a sell-off of the dollar from fomc CPI I'm   going to be interested in long silver followed by  short US dollar Yen followed by long pound dollar   so those are the reactive dollar plays that I'm  looking at next week post CPI fomc and last but   not least we have Bitcoin looking at this in the  daily chart we are just correcting consolidating   the big moves are coming to the downside and  so I am looking for the declines in Bitcoin   any continued pullback is simply viewed as an  opportunity to shortlist of the better price   it's not highlighted as one of the best but I  would be short on balance looking for the 14   858.30 so that is it for me for this week guys  as always I hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so   far if you enjoyed today's video why not consider  joining us during the week where I share my   charts as well as the setups that I'm personally  looking at trading with members on a daily basis   and we also published the scorecards for over  75 markets in different asset classes including   Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find  out more about the benefits of GMT membership   by clicking the links in the description below  and also in the pinned comment below so thanks   for watching the only thing left to say is  take care and don't forget straight safely

2022-12-14 08:04

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