Weekly Forex Forecast (11/07/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (11/07/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're   having a nice weekend in last week's video we  identified the dxy to the upside as one of the   best opportunities to be involved with and we had  a fantastic move to the upside this was a great   market to be involved with on the long side we  also looked at the swiss franc pairs and last week   the swiss franc pairs just kind of corrected so  we're going to discuss in today's video why that   was the case but first as always we're going to  have a quick look at the economic calendar because   there were some very important pieces of data  that came out last week which affect this week's   scorecards okay so two things to note from last  week we did have the raising of interest rates   out of australia in line with expectations at  1.35 and we also had employment data towards the   end of the week out of canada out of the us and  the us data is important because we had a strong   jobs number at 372. it was over and above what  was expected at 260 but it wasn't as much as the   previous time the jobs numbers came out and what  this means is because the jobs data is better than   forecast better than expected and still fairly  robust it gives the federal reserve the green   light to get even more aggressive perhaps although  i think most likely it's just going to keep being   aggressive as it is in other words we've got  the green light for the 75 basis points rate   hike at the next meeting from the fed so the fed  are not going to back off this process of trying   to crush u.s inflation the whole time the jobs  numbers are coming out as they did last friday   so the fed are going to remain very aggressive  and of course this is going to be a fundamental   long driver of dxy and coming up this week we have  interest rate decisions out of new zealand and   also out of canada and of course the all-important  inflation data coming out from the us on wednesday   this does mean wednesday is likely to get volatile  and the canadian dollar and also new zealand   dollar pairs next week i am going to be interested  in trading but they will be from wednesday onwards   after the interest rate decisions have taken  place okay so if we look at the scorecards   heading into next week the first thing to note  is the swiss franc and the dollar were the two   best long positions we were looking at last  week the us dollar performed fantastically as   we already discussed and the swiss franc pairs  kind of just corrected now the reason for that   was you can see we did actually have a score last  week of four which is overbought and it means that   yes we can be bullish on that currency but it is  likely coming to an end and we should be looking   at booking profits into the highs we don't  want to actually hold on to that for too long   so in hindsight to be honest with you  perhaps i should have been looking to   prioritize us dollar pairs over swiss franc  pairs because i did put swiss franc as number one   and dollar as number two but if you got involved  with some swiss franc pairs and some dollar pairs   you still over performed because the swiss franc  pairs just kind of corrected they didn't really   go anywhere heading into this week you can see the  us dollar has in fact increased its score and the   swiss franc has come off of that overbought level  so it doesn't mean we want to be selling it it   just simply means that we are going to look at the  swiss franc pairs and i do think we're going to   see the swiss franc outperforming to the upside in  the near future but it just might not be next week   it may actually be the next two or three weeks as  we'll see when we go through the charts so heading   into this week the swiss franc is still at the top  of the leaderboard but because it's coming off of   an overbought level from four to three we actually  have some momentum going this way so we are going   to look at swiss franc longs but as i said don't  be surprised to see it continue to correct next   week and perhaps start to move in the following  weeks so that really leaves the u.s dollar which   has increased its score from two to three here  as my favorite play heading into next week dollar   long positions are going to be my primary plan for  next week and the best place i believe to actually   make money in the forex markets next week we  also have a strengthening of the canadian dollar   from bullish to neutral which is one too bullish  because we have neutral bullish to neutral bullish   strong bullish and overbought and to the downside  we have bearish to neutral bearish strong bearish   bias and oversold which means start to look  to book profits into low doesn't mean to buy   it just means start to look at booking  profits on any short positions you might have   and that's why last week i should really have  been looking to prioritize dollar pairs because   the scorecards were telling us the swiss rank  is strong but it's probably coming towards the   end of the move so coming into this week the  canadian dollar pairs also have some momentum   to the strong side of the scorecard so i do like  caglons we're going to be looking at but we have   the interest rate decision from wednesday onwards  so those pairs will be from wednesday onwards   and the second thing to note here is that the  commodity currencies the australian dollar the new   zealand canadian they've all kind of strengthened  somewhat and this is indicative of a little bit of   a reflationary bounce now why might that be the  case well it looks like what we're seeing or we   may even see next week in some of the markets  is essentially a painting of the candle because   we came into the second half of the year we  also started a new quarter and when you have a   new candle open even on say the three month chart  well most candles they have wicks on both ends so   very often in the first week or two you can see  markets which have sold off for example like   aussie franc we were looking at last week they  can correct like this and that actually forms the   top wick and then you get the move say over the  next ten or eight weeks and then the last couple   of weeks profit taking comes in and that's what  actually causes candles to be formed like this   with their wicks so we may just be painting the  upper wicks of a lot of these larger candles now   we've come into the second quarter sorry the  third quarter and the second half of the year   and that's why i say we may see for example the  swiss franc continue to correct for a week or so   and even the commodity currencies bouncing  especially the aussie in new zealand for a   week or so but i do think they're ultimately going  to roll over and start to see them moving this way   from left to right in the scorecards and being  good shorts once again in subsequent weeks   so just bear that in mind coming into a new  quarter into a new second half of the year we do   need to see some corrections which we saw a bit of  last week and may see a little bit more this week   in summary what i'm going to be looking for  here then is primarily us dollar long positions   versus the pound new zealand japanese yen and the  euro and my favorite trade next week will be euro   dollar to the downside why because although  the euro is minus one compared to say the   new zealand dollar which is minus two compared to  the japanese n minus two and the pound minus two   the difference is the euro has been moving from  this side to this side and what i'm doing here   is we're anticipating the euro to continue  moving maybe to minus two minus three minus   four when that happens you're going to see  moves to the downside so i like euro shorts   as one of my favorite opportunities this week  alongside u.s dollar long plays i also like the   japanese yen which is now sitting at -2 and  although we're going to be looking at pound   aussie and new zealand pairs there is a little bit  of an issue with a couple of these which is like   the aussie in new zealand they are strengthening  a little bit so yes we can look at shorts in those   markets as well but because of the strengthening  the scorecards i am going to be prioritizing   euro shorts yen shorts somewhat pound shorts and  primarily i'm going to be looking at dollar longs   and catalogs okay so let's have a quick  look at the individual currencies here   and we're in the daily charts as always just  to get an overall picture of what's going on   you can see the dxy took out both targets to the  upside we finished the week at the second target   and just a note here when you get to the first  target because usually we'll have one or two   targets when you get to the first target you  always want to give it a chance to see if it   will break through because very often it will  go straight through with hardly any pullback so   if you are looking to book profits at these  targets you always want to at the very least if   you have two targets here try and give the market  an opportunity to just move through the first   target and into the second target heading into  this week you can see the momentum here in the dxy   so it does look like we're going to perhaps have  a little bit of a correction first perhaps down to   the 106.50 but i am still bullish on the dx wine  any pullback in this market is viewed simply as an  

opportunity to look for bullish setups once again  in the dxy pairs and the next kia resistance the   upside is the 108.73 this is a market which is  in an overall uptrend and it is the strongest   not just in the near term but also structurally  in terms of all the currencies next is the euro   the euro came down took out both targets and  finished the week right at the second target   you can see not only do we have the euro turning  from slightly bullish to bearish in the scorecards   from left to right for the first time in a few  weeks we also have really good technicals so the   macro and the technicals here are aligning we have  strong momentum to the downside any pullback in   this market is viewed as an opportunity to look  for shorts in the euro and that will be we're   going to be looking at eurocad to the downside  for example you can look at eurofrank if you   really want euro dollar certainly but shorts in  the euro pairs next week are going to be something   i'm going to be looking at now you can see also  the next thing to note in the euro is not only   are we still below the major breakout level of the  1.06710 which i've highlighted recently but we are   heading towards parity and in fact the next target  to the downside is below parity at the 0.99610   next is the pound the pound is still trending  to the downside we are failing at previous lows   so we're starting to run out of a little bit of  momentum and this was actually reflected before   this happened because the pound actually went  from minus three to minus two in the scorecard so   the fact that the scorecards which are forwards  looking by one to four weeks told us the pound was   running out of momentum and then technically we  started to run out of momentum it's not surprising   but i am still bearish on the pound relatively  speaking i'm looking for the declines perhaps we   start to correct a little bit more first but  i'm looking further declines into the 1.1734  

next is the swiss franc the swiss franc is  bullish in the scorecard so although i am   bullish on the swiss franc on a relative basis  you can see here i mean if you compare this to   the uptrend and the bull market in the dxy it  is not as strong going into this week as the   dollar so i do like the swiss franc pairs but the  risk heading into this week is now they're moving   from left to right in the scorecards from four to  three they may continue back to two back to one   and then also back to neutral this is what tends  to happen the scorecards themselves oscillate   just as you would see in any kind of standard  deviation from one side to the other they kind   of swing so on a relative basis i am still  bullish on the swiss franc but i think the   xy pairs are better this week next is the yen  the yen is below the major breakout level still   and we are approaching next year of support to  the downside the japanese yen was oversold in   previous scorecards at minus four and it went to  minus three and then to minus two very similar   the opposite to what we just discussed with the  swiss franc and look at how choppy the market got   after the scorecards went from minus four to minus  three to minus two you can see it just corrected   so the scorecard told us probably stay out of this  for a couple of weeks just as it's telling us with   the swiss franc don't be surprised to see the  swiss franc get corrective over the next one to   two weeks as well and that's why i'm saying to you  yes we will look at them still but for next week   maybe they're not the best opportunities so now  we've had a bit of correction in the japanese yen   i am looking further declines into the 0.0073 i  do think yen short plays next week could be a good   one and we're going to look at that in the form of  dollar yen to the upside also cadyan to the upside   next is the canadian dollar the canadian dollar  itself is not particularly bullish but it is   bullish on a relative basis you can see vis-a-vis  for example the yen or the euro which are selling   off hard the cad is kind of grinding to the  downside we're kind of bouncing at all the   lows here so it's not particularly bullish but  relatively speaking the scorecard is telling   us to be bullish vis-a-vis other currencies so  going into this week i am going to be interested   in cad long positions but again i favor the dxy  pairs because you can see the dxy is stronger   than the canadian dollar next is the aussie we  have started to correct but i am looking for   clients to the downside into the 0.668.50 so i do  think that bounce in the scorecard is going to be   short-lived and we're going to start to see the  australian dollar heading back towards a score   of -2-3 and finally the new zealand dollar i am  also looking further declines but the new zealand   dollar has kind of corrected a little bit into  the interest rate decision this week so what i'd   like to see in the new zealand dollar is i would  like to see a continued correction into wednesday   and then if we get a sell-off and a break to the  downside like this on wednesday that's going to   be opportunity to look for a pullback and follow  through to the downside in the new zealand pairs   so i'm only interested in shorting new zealand  next week if for whatever reason we see the new   zealand dollar explode to the upside and it looks  like the market's going to start to reverse from   the interest rate decision then i won't trade  it at all because i'm only going to be short   or do nothing with the new zealand pairs next week  okay so let's look at the markets themselves head   into next week starting with crude oil last week  i noted this breakout over here of this correction   and i said to you that this was a market to look  for the downside we came down very quickly this   was a great opportunity last week and we took out  the target and that was the entire move into the   98.76 last week heading into this week i'm still  bearish on crude oil in the near term and any   continued pullback like this is simply viewed as  a better opportunity to look for bearish breakouts   to the downside and any setup like this where the  market breaks down and then we start to correct   i am going to be looking further declines into  the 93.85 first forex pair here is eurodollar   this is my favorite market heading into next  week we came down took out both targets last   week and then some heading into this week we  can see this breakout here from this previous   consolidation and any pullback towards this  perhaps we attempt to get a re-test down here   of these lows this is going to be viewed  as an opportunity to once again look for   bearish reversals and i'm going to be looking down  towards the next care of support to the downside   0.9971 there's a very good chance we take out  parity in euro dollar either next week or the  

following week next is us dollar japanese yen us  dollar japanese yen has just kind of corrected   sideways recently and we have not been looking at  this market because the yen itself was coming off   of the oversold level and you can see it saved us  a bit of a headache recently however now the yen   has come back towards minus two and the dollar  is strengthening and we also have a little bit   of risk on although as i said it looks like just  a very near-term bounce in the market this would   actually help and be supportive of us yen to the  upside because u.s dollar again to the upside is   a risk on moves because in a real risk-off move  you would see the dollar selling off vis-a-vis   the japanese yen so we're still correcting so  getting involved right here would be a little bit   risky what i'd like to see is i'd like to see us  break out you can see we've already started to   break out of this but if we can break out of this  with momentum like this then i'll be looking for a   pullback and that will be the opportunity to start  to look for long positions into the 138 handle   next is pound dollar highlighted as a good short  in recent videos and we came down to the target   set at the 1.1905 that was pretty much the low of  the week any continued pullback is simply viewed   as yet another opportunity to look for bearish  breakouts in this market down towards the next key   of sports the 1.1715 next is new zealand dollar  highlighted in blue to remind you of that interest   rate decision on wednesday when you have interest  rate decisions i mean the cad pairs and new   zealand pairs are unlikely to do anything heading  into wednesday so if you get involved before that   you're probably statistically speaking going to  get involved in a market which does nothing or   just correct so what i'd like to see here is i'd  like to see this continue into wednesday and if we   get a strong sell-off on wednesday to the downside  like this that is going to be a great opportunity   to look for a pullback and follow through to the  downside to 0.6015 so i do really like this market   next week but it's going to be one from wednesday  onwards as an interest rate decision trade   and i'm going to be looking for the move to happen  on the interest rate decision and then i'm going   to be looking for the follow-through after the  interest rate decision next is aussie dollar   aussie dollar just kind of correcting we may come  back and take out previous highs over here you can   see have a bit of a descending triangle here and  if we do come back and we re-test this and this   turns into just a bit of a range look for a brake  lower once again in aussie dollar i'm going to be   treating any correction here as an opportunity  to look for a breakout and a pullback   and that will be the opportunity to look for  shorts into the 0.6684 moving on to the cad   pairs we took out previous targets here in eurocad  alongside euro dollar and us dollar japanese yen   eurocad and kadyan are my two favorite forex pay  attendants next week notice because we have those   commodity currencies coming off the lows like  new zealand like aussie opportunities are drying   up somewhat we're seeing some corrections taking  place in the markets we're seeing a bit of a risk   on bounce in an overall risk of environment so  it's really going to be key not to take too much   risk next week to really look for the best setups  i'm going to be trading less looking for the best   opportunities and i do think eurocad caddie  and us dollar yen and eurodollar are the four   forex pairs which are most likely to provide those  opportunities so any pullback in eurocad heading   into wednesday and am i either going to be short  eurocad or i'm just going to do nothing if we pull   back into the interest rate decision look for this  pullback and then a break that's going to be the   opportunity to look for shorts at the tail end of  the week into 1.3029 next is kadyan now i quite  

like kadyan heading into next week for reasons  disgust but we do have an interest rate decision   we are kind of corrective i mean look at this  this is really nice momentum to the upside and   but over here we're just kind of failing at the  high failing at this low over here and so we do   need to see some momentum come into this but the  good news is we have an interest rate decision so   if candian just corrects into wednesday and then  we get strength from the canadian interest rate   decision look for a pullback this is what i'm  going to be looking for into the previous high   of the 107.15 if we do break through here with  momentum i'm going to be looking up to the 109.56   but the main opportunity next week is into  the previous high over here at the 107.15   if you remember from previous videos i highlighted  this breakout over here and said look for a nice   move to the upside and the scorecards got us  involved with this right on the breakout and   if you look at this it looks like we have a one  two three and this looks like a four so it does   look like we're going to come up and finish this  over here taking out the previous high it's one of   the reasons why i really like this alongside the  macro score cards confirming a potential fifth   wave or final move up into the previous highs  over here next is pound cad you can see pound   cad has been a bit corrective recently so any  pullback in this area i'm going to be looking for   a break to the downside with momentum like this it  should be quite clear when you get these brakes if   you have to squint probably hasn't happened  any breakdown with momentum i'm going to be   looking for a pullback i'm going to be looking for  shorts into the 1.5443 it's highlighted in blue  

to remind you have an interest rate decision out  of canada so this will be from wednesday onwards   and the final cad pair is aussie cad we do have  a correction here and a nice bear flag setting up   any break lower on the interest rate decision is  going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for   a pullback i'm going to look for shorts into the  0.8522 now there is nothing but air between price   and the 0.8522 and that's because the last time it  made this move it ran during the covered crisis so   there is a good chance when you see markets in  the past running these levels very very quickly   you can often see them doing it again however if  you want to be conservative because it may take   a couple of weeks to get here start to work your  way through the psychological numbers so the first   target then as a more conservative target would  be the zero point eight seven hundred then you can   look at the zero point eight six hundred as a more  conservative target then finally on to the zero   point eight five two two which is the next key  area of support okay so let's have a quick look   at the frank pairs before we wrap up the frank  pairs are not high up on my list that's why none   of these are highlighted in gold but we did look  at them last week i'm just going to keep an eye   on them we did take out the targets previously in  eurofrank although this was not a market we were   looking at last week any continued pullback in  eurofrank over the next couple of weeks is going   to be viewed as an opportunity to start to look  for bearish breakdowns once again into the 0.9775  

if you are going to trade any swiss franc pairs  i would prefer out of all of them euro frank to   the downside purely because euro is my favorite  short currency next week next is frankie again   unlikely to do much next week but you can see  we are just correcting we have a little bit of a   double bottom over here so maybe next week we see  the market breaking up like this and then we start   to correct and then we get a rally to the high and  the one four four one eight in the next few weeks   but again for next week the swiss franc pairs  are not really high up on my list pound frank   again you can see the market is correcting don't  be surprised to see this continue to correct next   week until we start to see a strengthening of the  swiss franc in the scorecards once again and being   patient waiting for that strength and you should  see a correction and then you'll start to see the   market coming down like this and that will be the  opportunity to look for shorts once again so i am   looking further declines but look how strong this  sell-off was in pound frank the market needs time   to correct it needs to come back you know at least  close to 50 usually 25 percent before it continues   it can't just pull back five percent every time  and continue down has to have a breather and that   is what looks to be happening in the frank  pairs so patience required on all of these   new zealand frank again look at the previous  sell-off big big sell-off here the market needs   time to correct so i am looking for further  correction in this market and once we see the   swiss franc strengthening the scorecards that will  be the opportunity to look for shorts once again   into the previous lows and then to the 0.5798 in  this market and finally aussie frank once again   just to highlight the fact look at this steep  sell-off that we had here and the australian   vis-a-vis the swiss franc needs time to correct  so don't be surprised to see this continue up   over the next week or so and then once we see  in the scorecards the swiss franc strengthening   that will be our sign to get back involved here  for the next momentum leg to the downside so again   just to clarify i'm not looking at the swiss franc  pairs in terms of trades next week i actually   expect these to continue to correct that's what  scorecards are suggesting but keep them on your   radar this month as it does look like we're set  for further declines in the near future if not   over the next week or two so it's the dollar pairs  and the cad pairs that i'm focused on trading next   week that's where i think the best opportunity  to make money is wrapping up with gold silver and   bitcoin starting with the gold silver ratio look  at where the gold silver ratio went right to the   9297 that was the high of the previous move that  was the level identified in previous videos i am   still bullish on gold overall and now we've taken  out this target i am looking further advances into   the 9 500. both gold and silver have been short  in recent videos because of the strength of the   dollar primarily and heading into this week i am  still going to be short both of them but i still   favor shorts and silver over gold starting with  gold we took out bow targets to the downside last   week really nice momentum in gold any continued  pullback in this market is simply viewed as   an opportunity once again to look for bearish  reversals into the 1721.80 if we come down next   week first and we take out this target and then  bounce i'm going to be looking down towards target   two at the 16 82.30 next is silver silver has been  highlighted as a best short to the downside it's  

been highlighted in gold here over previous videos  and last week we had a fantastic move taking out   the target set at the 19.05 i did sound the  alarm bell when we broke the major breakout   level of the 21.45 and we have finally started to  see capitulation down below here any pullback in   silver next week is going to be viewed as a great  opportunity once again to look for shorts into the   18.45 and last but not least we have bitcoin i did  highlight the breakout here and that i was looking  

further declines into the 16492 we really just  came down failed to make a low and we've pulled   back and we've taken out the previous high over  here it does as it currently stands just look like   a bigger correction any continued pullback in  bitcoin therefore is viewed simply as an abc   correction and what i'm going to be looking for  is i'm going to be looking for a breakout to the   downside so we continue to pull back any breakout  down here with momentum in bitcoin is viewed as   an opportunity once again to look for a pullback  and i'm going to be looking for shorts into the 16   492. so that is it for me for this week guys  as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing  and subscribing a big thank to everybody who   does that on a regular basis and a big thanks to  everyone who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next   week the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-07-11 03:24

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