Weekly Forex Forecast (11/07/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
hey traders it's john fortune here with this week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a nice weekend in last week's video we identified the dxy to the upside as one of the best opportunities to be involved with and we had a fantastic move to the upside this was a great market to be involved with on the long side we also looked at the swiss franc pairs and last week the swiss franc pairs just kind of corrected so we're going to discuss in today's video why that was the case but first as always we're going to have a quick look at the economic calendar because there were some very important pieces of data that came out last week which affect this week's scorecards okay so two things to note from last week we did have the raising of interest rates out of australia in line with expectations at 1.35 and we also had employment data towards the end of the week out of canada out of the us and the us data is important because we had a strong jobs number at 372. it was over and above what was expected at 260 but it wasn't as much as the previous time the jobs numbers came out and what this means is because the jobs data is better than forecast better than expected and still fairly robust it gives the federal reserve the green light to get even more aggressive perhaps although i think most likely it's just going to keep being aggressive as it is in other words we've got the green light for the 75 basis points rate hike at the next meeting from the fed so the fed are not going to back off this process of trying to crush u.s inflation the whole time the jobs numbers are coming out as they did last friday so the fed are going to remain very aggressive and of course this is going to be a fundamental long driver of dxy and coming up this week we have interest rate decisions out of new zealand and also out of canada and of course the all-important inflation data coming out from the us on wednesday this does mean wednesday is likely to get volatile and the canadian dollar and also new zealand dollar pairs next week i am going to be interested in trading but they will be from wednesday onwards after the interest rate decisions have taken place okay so if we look at the scorecards heading into next week the first thing to note is the swiss franc and the dollar were the two best long positions we were looking at last week the us dollar performed fantastically as we already discussed and the swiss franc pairs kind of just corrected now the reason for that was you can see we did actually have a score last week of four which is overbought and it means that yes we can be bullish on that currency but it is likely coming to an end and we should be looking at booking profits into the highs we don't want to actually hold on to that for too long so in hindsight to be honest with you perhaps i should have been looking to prioritize us dollar pairs over swiss franc pairs because i did put swiss franc as number one and dollar as number two but if you got involved with some swiss franc pairs and some dollar pairs you still over performed because the swiss franc pairs just kind of corrected they didn't really go anywhere heading into this week you can see the us dollar has in fact increased its score and the swiss franc has come off of that overbought level so it doesn't mean we want to be selling it it just simply means that we are going to look at the swiss franc pairs and i do think we're going to see the swiss franc outperforming to the upside in the near future but it just might not be next week it may actually be the next two or three weeks as we'll see when we go through the charts so heading into this week the swiss franc is still at the top of the leaderboard but because it's coming off of an overbought level from four to three we actually have some momentum going this way so we are going to look at swiss franc longs but as i said don't be surprised to see it continue to correct next week and perhaps start to move in the following weeks so that really leaves the u.s dollar which has increased its score from two to three here as my favorite play heading into next week dollar long positions are going to be my primary plan for next week and the best place i believe to actually make money in the forex markets next week we also have a strengthening of the canadian dollar from bullish to neutral which is one too bullish because we have neutral bullish to neutral bullish strong bullish and overbought and to the downside we have bearish to neutral bearish strong bearish bias and oversold which means start to look to book profits into low doesn't mean to buy it just means start to look at booking profits on any short positions you might have and that's why last week i should really have been looking to prioritize dollar pairs because the scorecards were telling us the swiss rank is strong but it's probably coming towards the end of the move so coming into this week the canadian dollar pairs also have some momentum to the strong side of the scorecard so i do like caglons we're going to be looking at but we have the interest rate decision from wednesday onwards so those pairs will be from wednesday onwards and the second thing to note here is that the commodity currencies the australian dollar the new zealand canadian they've all kind of strengthened somewhat and this is indicative of a little bit of a reflationary bounce now why might that be the case well it looks like what we're seeing or we may even see next week in some of the markets is essentially a painting of the candle because we came into the second half of the year we also started a new quarter and when you have a new candle open even on say the three month chart well most candles they have wicks on both ends so very often in the first week or two you can see markets which have sold off for example like aussie franc we were looking at last week they can correct like this and that actually forms the top wick and then you get the move say over the next ten or eight weeks and then the last couple of weeks profit taking comes in and that's what actually causes candles to be formed like this with their wicks so we may just be painting the upper wicks of a lot of these larger candles now we've come into the second quarter sorry the third quarter and the second half of the year and that's why i say we may see for example the swiss franc continue to correct for a week or so and even the commodity currencies bouncing especially the aussie in new zealand for a week or so but i do think they're ultimately going to roll over and start to see them moving this way from left to right in the scorecards and being good shorts once again in subsequent weeks so just bear that in mind coming into a new quarter into a new second half of the year we do need to see some corrections which we saw a bit of last week and may see a little bit more this week in summary what i'm going to be looking for here then is primarily us dollar long positions versus the pound new zealand japanese yen and the euro and my favorite trade next week will be euro dollar to the downside why because although the euro is minus one compared to say the new zealand dollar which is minus two compared to the japanese n minus two and the pound minus two the difference is the euro has been moving from this side to this side and what i'm doing here is we're anticipating the euro to continue moving maybe to minus two minus three minus four when that happens you're going to see moves to the downside so i like euro shorts as one of my favorite opportunities this week alongside u.s dollar long plays i also like the japanese yen which is now sitting at -2 and although we're going to be looking at pound aussie and new zealand pairs there is a little bit of an issue with a couple of these which is like the aussie in new zealand they are strengthening a little bit so yes we can look at shorts in those markets as well but because of the strengthening the scorecards i am going to be prioritizing euro shorts yen shorts somewhat pound shorts and primarily i'm going to be looking at dollar longs and catalogs okay so let's have a quick look at the individual currencies here and we're in the daily charts as always just to get an overall picture of what's going on you can see the dxy took out both targets to the upside we finished the week at the second target and just a note here when you get to the first target because usually we'll have one or two targets when you get to the first target you always want to give it a chance to see if it will break through because very often it will go straight through with hardly any pullback so if you are looking to book profits at these targets you always want to at the very least if you have two targets here try and give the market an opportunity to just move through the first target and into the second target heading into this week you can see the momentum here in the dxy so it does look like we're going to perhaps have a little bit of a correction first perhaps down to the 106.50 but i am still bullish on the dx wine any pullback in this market is viewed simply as an
opportunity to look for bullish setups once again in the dxy pairs and the next kia resistance the upside is the 108.73 this is a market which is in an overall uptrend and it is the strongest not just in the near term but also structurally in terms of all the currencies next is the euro the euro came down took out both targets and finished the week right at the second target you can see not only do we have the euro turning from slightly bullish to bearish in the scorecards from left to right for the first time in a few weeks we also have really good technicals so the macro and the technicals here are aligning we have strong momentum to the downside any pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts in the euro and that will be we're going to be looking at eurocad to the downside for example you can look at eurofrank if you really want euro dollar certainly but shorts in the euro pairs next week are going to be something i'm going to be looking at now you can see also the next thing to note in the euro is not only are we still below the major breakout level of the 1.06710 which i've highlighted recently but we are heading towards parity and in fact the next target to the downside is below parity at the 0.99610 next is the pound the pound is still trending to the downside we are failing at previous lows so we're starting to run out of a little bit of momentum and this was actually reflected before this happened because the pound actually went from minus three to minus two in the scorecard so the fact that the scorecards which are forwards looking by one to four weeks told us the pound was running out of momentum and then technically we started to run out of momentum it's not surprising but i am still bearish on the pound relatively speaking i'm looking for the declines perhaps we start to correct a little bit more first but i'm looking further declines into the 1.1734
next is the swiss franc the swiss franc is bullish in the scorecard so although i am bullish on the swiss franc on a relative basis you can see here i mean if you compare this to the uptrend and the bull market in the dxy it is not as strong going into this week as the dollar so i do like the swiss franc pairs but the risk heading into this week is now they're moving from left to right in the scorecards from four to three they may continue back to two back to one and then also back to neutral this is what tends to happen the scorecards themselves oscillate just as you would see in any kind of standard deviation from one side to the other they kind of swing so on a relative basis i am still bullish on the swiss franc but i think the xy pairs are better this week next is the yen the yen is below the major breakout level still and we are approaching next year of support to the downside the japanese yen was oversold in previous scorecards at minus four and it went to minus three and then to minus two very similar the opposite to what we just discussed with the swiss franc and look at how choppy the market got after the scorecards went from minus four to minus three to minus two you can see it just corrected so the scorecard told us probably stay out of this for a couple of weeks just as it's telling us with the swiss franc don't be surprised to see the swiss franc get corrective over the next one to two weeks as well and that's why i'm saying to you yes we will look at them still but for next week maybe they're not the best opportunities so now we've had a bit of correction in the japanese yen i am looking further declines into the 0.0073 i do think yen short plays next week could be a good one and we're going to look at that in the form of dollar yen to the upside also cadyan to the upside next is the canadian dollar the canadian dollar itself is not particularly bullish but it is bullish on a relative basis you can see vis-a-vis for example the yen or the euro which are selling off hard the cad is kind of grinding to the downside we're kind of bouncing at all the lows here so it's not particularly bullish but relatively speaking the scorecard is telling us to be bullish vis-a-vis other currencies so going into this week i am going to be interested in cad long positions but again i favor the dxy pairs because you can see the dxy is stronger than the canadian dollar next is the aussie we have started to correct but i am looking for clients to the downside into the 0.668.50 so i do think that bounce in the scorecard is going to be short-lived and we're going to start to see the australian dollar heading back towards a score of -2-3 and finally the new zealand dollar i am also looking further declines but the new zealand dollar has kind of corrected a little bit into the interest rate decision this week so what i'd like to see in the new zealand dollar is i would like to see a continued correction into wednesday and then if we get a sell-off and a break to the downside like this on wednesday that's going to be opportunity to look for a pullback and follow through to the downside in the new zealand pairs so i'm only interested in shorting new zealand next week if for whatever reason we see the new zealand dollar explode to the upside and it looks like the market's going to start to reverse from the interest rate decision then i won't trade it at all because i'm only going to be short or do nothing with the new zealand pairs next week okay so let's look at the markets themselves head into next week starting with crude oil last week i noted this breakout over here of this correction and i said to you that this was a market to look for the downside we came down very quickly this was a great opportunity last week and we took out the target and that was the entire move into the 98.76 last week heading into this week i'm still bearish on crude oil in the near term and any continued pullback like this is simply viewed as a better opportunity to look for bearish breakouts to the downside and any setup like this where the market breaks down and then we start to correct i am going to be looking further declines into the 93.85 first forex pair here is eurodollar this is my favorite market heading into next week we came down took out both targets last week and then some heading into this week we can see this breakout here from this previous consolidation and any pullback towards this perhaps we attempt to get a re-test down here of these lows this is going to be viewed as an opportunity to once again look for bearish reversals and i'm going to be looking down towards the next care of support to the downside 0.9971 there's a very good chance we take out parity in euro dollar either next week or the
following week next is us dollar japanese yen us dollar japanese yen has just kind of corrected sideways recently and we have not been looking at this market because the yen itself was coming off of the oversold level and you can see it saved us a bit of a headache recently however now the yen has come back towards minus two and the dollar is strengthening and we also have a little bit of risk on although as i said it looks like just a very near-term bounce in the market this would actually help and be supportive of us yen to the upside because u.s dollar again to the upside is a risk on moves because in a real risk-off move you would see the dollar selling off vis-a-vis the japanese yen so we're still correcting so getting involved right here would be a little bit risky what i'd like to see is i'd like to see us break out you can see we've already started to break out of this but if we can break out of this with momentum like this then i'll be looking for a pullback and that will be the opportunity to start to look for long positions into the 138 handle next is pound dollar highlighted as a good short in recent videos and we came down to the target set at the 1.1905 that was pretty much the low of the week any continued pullback is simply viewed as yet another opportunity to look for bearish breakouts in this market down towards the next key of sports the 1.1715 next is new zealand dollar highlighted in blue to remind you of that interest rate decision on wednesday when you have interest rate decisions i mean the cad pairs and new zealand pairs are unlikely to do anything heading into wednesday so if you get involved before that you're probably statistically speaking going to get involved in a market which does nothing or just correct so what i'd like to see here is i'd like to see this continue into wednesday and if we get a strong sell-off on wednesday to the downside like this that is going to be a great opportunity to look for a pullback and follow through to the downside to 0.6015 so i do really like this market next week but it's going to be one from wednesday onwards as an interest rate decision trade and i'm going to be looking for the move to happen on the interest rate decision and then i'm going to be looking for the follow-through after the interest rate decision next is aussie dollar aussie dollar just kind of correcting we may come back and take out previous highs over here you can see have a bit of a descending triangle here and if we do come back and we re-test this and this turns into just a bit of a range look for a brake lower once again in aussie dollar i'm going to be treating any correction here as an opportunity to look for a breakout and a pullback and that will be the opportunity to look for shorts into the 0.6684 moving on to the cad pairs we took out previous targets here in eurocad alongside euro dollar and us dollar japanese yen eurocad and kadyan are my two favorite forex pay attendants next week notice because we have those commodity currencies coming off the lows like new zealand like aussie opportunities are drying up somewhat we're seeing some corrections taking place in the markets we're seeing a bit of a risk on bounce in an overall risk of environment so it's really going to be key not to take too much risk next week to really look for the best setups i'm going to be trading less looking for the best opportunities and i do think eurocad caddie and us dollar yen and eurodollar are the four forex pairs which are most likely to provide those opportunities so any pullback in eurocad heading into wednesday and am i either going to be short eurocad or i'm just going to do nothing if we pull back into the interest rate decision look for this pullback and then a break that's going to be the opportunity to look for shorts at the tail end of the week into 1.3029 next is kadyan now i quite
like kadyan heading into next week for reasons disgust but we do have an interest rate decision we are kind of corrective i mean look at this this is really nice momentum to the upside and but over here we're just kind of failing at the high failing at this low over here and so we do need to see some momentum come into this but the good news is we have an interest rate decision so if candian just corrects into wednesday and then we get strength from the canadian interest rate decision look for a pullback this is what i'm going to be looking for into the previous high of the 107.15 if we do break through here with momentum i'm going to be looking up to the 109.56 but the main opportunity next week is into the previous high over here at the 107.15 if you remember from previous videos i highlighted this breakout over here and said look for a nice move to the upside and the scorecards got us involved with this right on the breakout and if you look at this it looks like we have a one two three and this looks like a four so it does look like we're going to come up and finish this over here taking out the previous high it's one of the reasons why i really like this alongside the macro score cards confirming a potential fifth wave or final move up into the previous highs over here next is pound cad you can see pound cad has been a bit corrective recently so any pullback in this area i'm going to be looking for a break to the downside with momentum like this it should be quite clear when you get these brakes if you have to squint probably hasn't happened any breakdown with momentum i'm going to be looking for a pullback i'm going to be looking for shorts into the 1.5443 it's highlighted in blue
to remind you have an interest rate decision out of canada so this will be from wednesday onwards and the final cad pair is aussie cad we do have a correction here and a nice bear flag setting up any break lower on the interest rate decision is going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for a pullback i'm going to look for shorts into the 0.8522 now there is nothing but air between price and the 0.8522 and that's because the last time it made this move it ran during the covered crisis so there is a good chance when you see markets in the past running these levels very very quickly you can often see them doing it again however if you want to be conservative because it may take a couple of weeks to get here start to work your way through the psychological numbers so the first target then as a more conservative target would be the zero point eight seven hundred then you can look at the zero point eight six hundred as a more conservative target then finally on to the zero point eight five two two which is the next key area of support okay so let's have a quick look at the frank pairs before we wrap up the frank pairs are not high up on my list that's why none of these are highlighted in gold but we did look at them last week i'm just going to keep an eye on them we did take out the targets previously in eurofrank although this was not a market we were looking at last week any continued pullback in eurofrank over the next couple of weeks is going to be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for bearish breakdowns once again into the 0.9775
if you are going to trade any swiss franc pairs i would prefer out of all of them euro frank to the downside purely because euro is my favorite short currency next week next is frankie again unlikely to do much next week but you can see we are just correcting we have a little bit of a double bottom over here so maybe next week we see the market breaking up like this and then we start to correct and then we get a rally to the high and the one four four one eight in the next few weeks but again for next week the swiss franc pairs are not really high up on my list pound frank again you can see the market is correcting don't be surprised to see this continue to correct next week until we start to see a strengthening of the swiss franc in the scorecards once again and being patient waiting for that strength and you should see a correction and then you'll start to see the market coming down like this and that will be the opportunity to look for shorts once again so i am looking further declines but look how strong this sell-off was in pound frank the market needs time to correct it needs to come back you know at least close to 50 usually 25 percent before it continues it can't just pull back five percent every time and continue down has to have a breather and that is what looks to be happening in the frank pairs so patience required on all of these new zealand frank again look at the previous sell-off big big sell-off here the market needs time to correct so i am looking for further correction in this market and once we see the swiss franc strengthening the scorecards that will be the opportunity to look for shorts once again into the previous lows and then to the 0.5798 in this market and finally aussie frank once again just to highlight the fact look at this steep sell-off that we had here and the australian vis-a-vis the swiss franc needs time to correct so don't be surprised to see this continue up over the next week or so and then once we see in the scorecards the swiss franc strengthening that will be our sign to get back involved here for the next momentum leg to the downside so again just to clarify i'm not looking at the swiss franc pairs in terms of trades next week i actually expect these to continue to correct that's what scorecards are suggesting but keep them on your radar this month as it does look like we're set for further declines in the near future if not over the next week or two so it's the dollar pairs and the cad pairs that i'm focused on trading next week that's where i think the best opportunity to make money is wrapping up with gold silver and bitcoin starting with the gold silver ratio look at where the gold silver ratio went right to the 9297 that was the high of the previous move that was the level identified in previous videos i am still bullish on gold overall and now we've taken out this target i am looking further advances into the 9 500. both gold and silver have been short in recent videos because of the strength of the dollar primarily and heading into this week i am still going to be short both of them but i still favor shorts and silver over gold starting with gold we took out bow targets to the downside last week really nice momentum in gold any continued pullback in this market is simply viewed as an opportunity once again to look for bearish reversals into the 1721.80 if we come down next week first and we take out this target and then bounce i'm going to be looking down towards target two at the 16 82.30 next is silver silver has been highlighted as a best short to the downside it's
been highlighted in gold here over previous videos and last week we had a fantastic move taking out the target set at the 19.05 i did sound the alarm bell when we broke the major breakout level of the 21.45 and we have finally started to see capitulation down below here any pullback in silver next week is going to be viewed as a great opportunity once again to look for shorts into the 18.45 and last but not least we have bitcoin i did highlight the breakout here and that i was looking
further declines into the 16492 we really just came down failed to make a low and we've pulled back and we've taken out the previous high over here it does as it currently stands just look like a bigger correction any continued pullback in bitcoin therefore is viewed simply as an abc correction and what i'm going to be looking for is i'm going to be looking for a breakout to the downside so we continue to pull back any breakout down here with momentum in bitcoin is viewed as an opportunity once again to look for a pullback and i'm going to be looking for shorts into the 16 492. so that is it for me for this week guys as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thank to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thanks to everyone who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2022-07-11 03:24