Weekly Forex Forecast (10/10/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (10/10/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Show Video

foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this  week's weekly Forex forecast I hope you're   having a great weekend last week we had strong  employment data out of the US and as a result we   saw the dollar bouncing off the lows the dollar  bull market is still intact and going into next   week we have inflation data out of the us and  this is a big event you need to keep your eyes   open for and pay attention to next week okay so a  quick look at the economic calendar and last week   we had ISM Manufacturing come out on Monday  worst than expected and this actually caused   a two-day rally in the stock market and also  saw markets like gold and silver rallying to   the upside but the actual reading itself was still  above 50. so what this is telling you as a leading   indicator is in about 12 to 18 months time the  US manufacturing sector is actually set to grow   still but at a slower rate than previously we then  had ISM services and remember the service sector   in the US is actually greater or larger than the  manufacturing sector and this came out better than   expected and pretty much unchanged from last month  so we are still seeing fairly strong leading data   out of the US and when you couple this with  the strong jobs data that we had a surprise   to the upside in and also the unemployment rate  actually dropped and this is an extremely tight   uh labor market here at 3.5 this just gives the  fed the green light to hike even more aggressively   and now a 75 basis points hike in November  which was previously thought was going to   be 50 basis points by market participants they're  now baking in the likelihood of a 75 basis points   rate hike and this is why we started to see the  dollar bouncing at the end of last week and I   am interested in dollar long plays once again  heading into this week so if we come ahead to   this week on Monday it is a U.S Bank holiday so  I expect the markets to be very dull not much   happening on Monday the markets are likely to  start to get moving from Tuesday onwards and the   important piece of data coming out this week is  the CPI data on Thursday and the reason this is   so important is because the FED as it currently  stands are hiking at the fastest rate in history   and it's to control inflation and just with the  data we saw out of the US last week if this comes   in hotter than expected it will be bullish for the  dollar bearish equity is and if it comes in cooler   than expected or if we start to see inflation  coming down this would likely elicit a negative   reaction from the dollar and a positive reaction  from stock so keep an eye out for this on Thursday   but just bear in mind if inflation were to come  down say from 8.3 to a reading of eight or even   if it came out to 8.1 the actual overall inflation  reading of eight is still very very high the FED  

are unlikely to Pivot at eight percent inflation  just because it's dropped from 8.3 to 8.1 or 8.0   okay so let's have a look at the scorecards  for the coming week and just a quick note I   am getting over a cold so apologies if I sound a  bit stuffed up in today's video but in terms of   the scorecards heading into next week you can see  we have quite an interesting development here with   the US dollar and also the Euro strengthening  in the scorecards and very similar to what we   discussed before when the Euro and the dollar are  both on the positive side or on the negative side   this generally means opportunities are drying up  and we should be cautious really only taking the   best opportunities in the market and very often  the dollar itself is corrective or choppy when   we see the dollar and the Euro both on the  same side of the scorecards on a one month   forward-looking probability basis and in fact if  you go look at the dollar which we're going to do   you will see even though it bounced last week  it's still kind of correcting it's still kind   of moving sideways and we're not back to the  highs we were previously so that's the first   thing to note is that market opportunities are  not expanding just yet and we should be selective   still with the risk we're taking especially with  CPI coming up next week the next thing to note is   that it is the commodity currencies as I said to  you last week which are starting to form over on   the negative side and this is a sign of a flight  safety in the currencies because in a downturn or   in a big risk-off environment you see commodity  currencies like the New Zealand dollar like the   Aussie uh like the Canadian dollar underperforming  even currencies like the Euro like the pound   Etc especially the risk off currencies like the  Frank and the dollar but what's interesting is   the Yen has actually weakened in the scorecards  now for GMT members watching this you will know   that we did look at New Zealand shorts Aussie  shorts against the yen in LA last week's daily   videos if you are involved in those markets this  is now telling you on Monday it's a good idea to   book your profits on those trades so just a  heads up before Monday I will be looking at   booking profits in the New Zealand Yen trade we  looked at during the week and that's because of   the Japanese Yen weakening in the scorecards  so we do have a signal here from the Yen which   is basically saying if you were a long Japanese  Yen last week you should be looking at covering   those positions heading into next week because  they're not the best players anymore and instead   what I would like to look ahead to in this week I  would like to look primarily at the Aussie dollar   and New Zealand dollar and the Aussie dollar has  weakened in the scorecard so we have a sell signal   here from the scorecard saying start to look for  short opportunities in Australian dollar pairs   and although the pound has strengthened it's still  on the weak side of the scorecard so if I am going   to go short the Aussie I am going to go short the  New Zealand I would favor those against primarily   the dollar I'm also going to be interested in  looking at the Aussie and New Zealand shorts next   week vis-a-vis the Frank and I'm also going to be  interested in short Aussie and short New Zealand   versus the Euro and that actually sets up quite  nicely because the Euro and the dollar obviously   move in different directions so there's a very  good chance that you get opportunities either   in Aussie New Zealand dollar versus the Euro or  the dollar next week and in fact you could very   well see opportunities in both of those markets  and all of those markets so as I say Yen pairs   are off the table for me for this week they  are absolutely neutral and slightly weakening   and that really leaves the final currency here  which is the Canadian dollar which is slightly   bearish to neutral at -1 because this is bearish  to neutral this is bearish this is strong bearish   and this is oversold but because of the recent  rally in oil we had the production cuts from the   OPEC meeting last week although I am interested  in just keeping an eye on Canadian dollar shorts   versus the dollar the Frank and also the Euro they  are not going to be highlighted as my top markets   when we look at the markets in a minute and I do  favor Aussie and New Zealand shorts over Canadian   dollar shorts next week okay so let's have a  quick look at the individual currencies before   moving on to the markets and the top markets  that I'm looking at trading next week starting   with the dxy it is the only currency which is  in a bull market and we are still above the   major breakout level of the 102.992 technically  we're still making high highs and higher lows and   I do have a fundamental bullish bias on this  because of the macro driven data we just looked   at the one month forward looking probability  scores for the dollar which is strong so the   despite that I am looking for further advances in  the dxy and I do still think we could be heading   towards the 121.02 in time I laid that out for you  in the dxy breakout thread back at the beginning   of the year you can view that thread in the  description of this video If you so wish it's   on Twitter but just bear in mind we do have CPI  data on Thursday and a bank holiday on Monday so   this Market is unlikely to do anything on Monday  Tuesday Wednesday I would not be surprised to see   this correct and then begin to move on Thursday  when we get the CPI data so just bear that in mind   with the dollar next week I am bullish overall  but you can't ignore the CPI data on Thursday   next is the Euro we are still below the seven year  breakout and the four-year breakout and this thing   is still trending to the downside and all we've  seen so far is a correction in an oval downtrend   so I am looking for any kind of pullback perhaps  before CPI and overall further declines from the   downside in the Euro you may be saying to yourself  well why would you look at Euro New Zealand and   Euro Aussie then well because relatively speaking  I do think that the New Zealand and the Aussie are   still going to underperform the euro you can see  the Euro falling like this or selling off and if   the Aussie or the New Zealand sell-off at a faster  rate you will still see Euro Aussie rallying to   the upside and you will still see Euro New Zealand  rallying to the upside so don't lose sight of the   fact yes the dollar is really the only Market  which is currently trending to the upside and   therefore I do favor a dollar long plays but  you can still make money on for example New   Zealand Frank Aussie Frank and Euro New Zealand  Euro Aussie it's simply on the basis that one   starts to decline or Falls faster than the other  next is the pound all we've had in the pound is a   flash crash and a retracement that pretty much  happens all the time go and have a look at the   Swiss franc shock in 2015 it took many years to  get back there but we still had the flash crash   and then the correction and then it started to  roll over so I do favor further declines in the   pound maybe again if the dxy corrects we come  back up maybe even we test the highs once more   but I am looking for the declines and I do think  we come back down to the lows and onto the 1.0304   this month next is the Swiss franc now again  compare this to the New Zealand and the Aussie   when we look at it yes it's bearish yes it's in  a downtrend and I certainly wouldn't go long the   Swiss Franc versus the dollar but you can see it's  kind of grinding to the downside we're hitting the   lows we're lacking momentum here and on a one  month forward-looking probability basis on the   macro scorecards it is telling us to be long the  Swiss franc relative to other currencies so I do   favor Swiss franc long plays but bear in mind  this is not an outright bullish currency next   is the Yen now this is a very good example of  what I was talking about the scorecards told   us to be bullish on the end last week and  despite the fact that Yen actually declined   there were still good trades to be had like Aussie  and New Zealand Yen last week because relatively   speaking the Aussie and New Zealand underperformed  so the scorecards nailed that but they're telling   us this week leave the Japanese year and it's  neutral and if anything it's neutral and getting   slightly weaker maybe this is a trade for the back  end of the month but as it currently stands next   week not interested in Japanese Yen next is the  cad I am bearish on the cad and as you can see we   may get a little bit more of a correction but  I am looking for further declines down to the   lows and then on to the 0.7088 so I am interested  in looking at CAD short setups US dollar CAD to  

the upside CAD Frank to the downside eurocad but  they're not my favorite positions I would prefer   to short Aussie and New Zealand next week Aussie  dollar we are trained into the downside still and   this is one of my favorite markets to be looking  at in the Forex complex next week any pullback in   the Aussie I do think we're heading down to the  0.62 150 and as I said a number of times it is   one of my favorite shorts next week and the final  Market here we're looking at is the New Zealand   dollar now the interesting thing about this is and  I'm looking at this on a weekly chart because when   we look at the individual currencies we're just  trying to get an idea of the bigger picture I am   looking for the declines in this market but if  we come down to the next Target at 0.54660 this   is actually a major breakout to the downside  in the New Zealand dollar so here is the issue   I have with a number of people talking about  a potential top in the dxy just like with the   pound and the Euro when they broke their major  structural lows they started to accelerate and   the dollar rallied and we could find this is the  case with the New Zealand dollar once we break   the 0.5466 so all of this is pointing to near-term  advances in the dollar and especially versus the   Aussie and the New Zealand and potentially the cad  those are where I think the best opportunities are   going to lie not just next week but probably  for the rest of the month okay so let's look   at the markets themselves starting with crude oil  and crude oil did rally last week and I warned in   last week's video we had the OPEC meetings coming  up on Wednesday last week and OPEC plus as it now   is with Russia involved discussed potential  production cuts and this has caused the crude   oil Market to Rally heading into next week I am  not outright bullish on crude oil I'm just kind   of near-term bullish you could say bullish to  neutral because GMT members will know crude oil   is not positive in the commodity scorecards but it  is weak and getting stronger so it's essentially   given us a signal to cover our shorts in fact  before the OPEC meetings we got a signal to   cover our shorts from the commodity scorecards  so I do expect further advances in crude oil   but my point is we may struggle to get above the  98.04 so any pullback in crude oil is a near-term   potential opportunity to look further advances  into the 98.04 and because we have a little bit  

of near-term strength in crude oil and the fact  that the Canadian dollar only scores minus one in   the one month forward-looking probability macro  scores that does cause me to leave the Canadian   dollar shorts out of my top pairs you can see the  top pairs are highlighted in gold and although   I'm going to be keeping an eye on them those two  reasons specifically are why the cad pairs are not   highlighted as best markets to look at next week  okay so the First Market we're going to look at   here in the Forex complex is New Zealand dollar  and this is my favorite short heading into next   week we have already had a consolidation and  we actually just broke a double top reversal   in New Zealand dollars so what I'm looking for  head into next week is any pullback and I will   be looking for shorts before the CPI data but  just bear in mind if it just corrects into the   CPI data you know why but any pullback in this  market next week any kind of Bear Flag pattern   here would be fantastic and that would give me  the opportunity to start to look for shorts into   the 0.5473 so that is my favorite Market heading  into next week I think it's one of the best places   to look to make money but just bear in mind with  the all of the dollar pairs here we have that CPI   data next is Aussie dollar also just breaking out  of a near-term consolidation in fact with members   we looked at potential shorts in this area last  week alongside Aussie and New Zealand Yen we've   already started to break down so if you weren't  involved from last week any pullback in this area   is going to be the opportunity next week start to  look for shorts once again into the next key of   support to the downside of the 0.6214 next is US  dollar CAD now for reason to discussed this is not   one of my favorite markets I do prefer Aussie in  New Zealand but it does look like we're going to   take out the 1.3850 so any pullback in this area  can still be considered a potential opportunity to   look for long setups into the 1.3850 and the final  dollar pair we're looking at here is euro dollar   they both score positively on the scorecards and  they did last week as well and in fact you can see   since the Euro and the dollar have been on the  positive side of the scorecards euro dollar has   just been ranging it's just been correcting  and that is why we avoid generally speaking   two strong currencies or two weak currencies if  they have a one month forward-looking probability   score because those markets over the course of  the next four weeks are projected essentially   just to correct and range so it's not generally  speaking where the opportunities are but if you   are looking to trade this Market I would favor  short positions still because the dollar is   outperforming or is projected to outperform  over the next four weeks in the scorecards   so any pullback in this market and I would not be  surprised to see this correcting into CPI but any   pullback would be viewed as an opportunity to look  for shorts into the 0.9413 if I'm going to short   currencies versus the dollar next week I would  much prefer these two next is New Zealand Frank   we are breaking out of a near-term correction  and it does look like now we are starting to   break out of here with momentum so any pullback  in New Zealand Frank next week is setting up as   a potential opportunity to look for shorts down to  the next key of support to the downside at 0.5424  

next is Aussie Frank this is my fourth favorite  setup heading into next week and again you can   see we've kind of been consolidating here which is  great because once you have consolidation that's   when you usually get a nice payoff with momentum  then the consolidation then the payoff and it's   actually between the consolidations where where  most of your money will be made so I like the   fact this is Consolidated hasn't really gone  anywhere since all the way back here but now   we are starting to potentially break out and  the scorecards are telling us it's projecting   potential further weakness in the Aussie pairs  because we went from -1 to -2 so it's given us   essentially a sell signal in the Aussie pairs look  for shorts in those markets so going into next   week any continued pullback in this market or if  we can start to break down from here because as I   see here we do have probably on the one hour time  frame but we have a kind of descending triangle   pattern you can see this it's a cell pattern so  any kind of pullback is viewed as an opportunity   to look for sure or if we start to break down out  of this consolidation look for a pullback and a   correction towards the bottom of this pattern and  that would be your opportunity to look further   declines into the 0.6208 and the final Frank pair  here is CAD Frank we are also consolidating you   can see we're kind of stuck in a Range here but  any breakdown in this market is still viewed as   a potential opportunity to look for shorts  into the 0.7061 as I said I will be keeping   my eye on the cad pairs but for reasons discussed  I would rather short New Zealand Frank and Aussie   Frank over CAD Frank next week and the final Forex  pairs we're looking at here are the Euro pairs we   do have a nice consolidation here so any continued  correction next week in Euro New Zealand is viewed   as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts  into the 1.7663 next is your Aussie and this is   six out of six this is my final Top Market that  I'm going to be looking for trading opportunities   in next week in the Forex complex and any pullback  in this market I'd like to see a bit of an ABC   come down test the lows that's going to be a  great opportunity to start to look for bullish   reversals I'm going to be looking up towards the  1.5515 so those are my top six Forex pairs that   I'm going to be looking at trading next week and  last but also least in this case because 0 is my   least favorite Forex Market out of all of these I  am still looking at a potential further advance in   eurocad again maybe next week if crude oil heads  higher it just continues to consolidate maybe   this is a trade for the back end of this month  but any continued correction in this market is   still viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish  breakouts I'm going to be looking up towards the   1.3715 okay so wrapping up the video with gold  silver Bitcoin and also we're going to look at  

the S P 500 in U.S stocks the gold silver ratio  did come down to the Target highlighted at the   82.08 as it stands I am looking for the declines  in the gold silver ratio so I do think gold is   likely to underperform Silver but when we look  at Silver and Gold I do not have a strong bias   on these markets and I'm going to explain to you  why okay so starting with gold and and I'm looking   at gold and silver this week on the daily chart  because we need to have a bigger picture view of   what's going on we broke below the major low here  of the 1676.86 and with the rally on Monday which   we had from us pmis remember the manufacturing PMI  that came out worse than expected but still above   50. that was when we saw this big rally Above This  previous low and we haven't really gone anywhere   in Gold since then the big problem I have with  gold though and getting involved for example with   gold long positions here is that one the dxy is  still bullish two the dxy still has a one month   forward looking probability score three gold is  still in an oval downtrend you can see here is   simply a low here is a lower high here is a  low here is a lower high so I wouldn't want   to get involved in Gold just yet in the face of  a projected stronger dollar I would imagine we're   probably going to come down and make new lows  still in Gold but it's not a fantastic shot either   because we're above the 1676.86 so going into next  week I am neutral on gold if you are looking to   get involved what I would say was I wouldn't be  surprised to see us come back and retest maybe   have a bit of a false breakout above here kind  of inverse Head and Shoulders false break and   then start to roll over again so I'm being patient  next week on gold I am bearish overall but not a   great week in my opinion to either get long or  short gold next is silver now also with silver   just as gold I do think patience is required on  both of these markets however silver paints a   little bit of a clearer picture because this was  the major breakout level highlighted and left here   in gold at 21 4230 and we have not yet broken  above here so going into next week especially   as I do think we have further upside in the dollar  over the next month and potentially over the next   quarter I think what we're most likely to see is  probably one more up and a retest of the major   breakout level in silver and this is where I'd  be starting to look for silver to roll over but   again next week with gold and silver I'm more in  an observation mode I'm not really going into next   week with a strong bullish or bearish bias on gold  and silver I'm bearish overall but next week I'm   going to be waiting to see how they play out and  if we are going to start to get further declines   for example in silver after a retest of the major  21.4230 breakout level next is Bitcoin now Bitcoin  

is a market that I'm interested in looking for  shorts next week and I do think we are about   to start the next leg down in Bitcoin again I'm  looking at this on the daily chart because if I   look at this on the four hour chart all you see is  this big correction so I kind of want want to have   a bigger view here we broke below the previous  low we sold off and we've been in a correction   ever since we bought them down here I do however  think after this consolidation and this failed   attempt to break Above This ascending triangle  I do think this is likely the start of the next   leg down in Bitcoin and I am looking to be short  Bitcoin heading into next week finally I think   we're going to come down to the Target that's been  highlighted for a while here at 16 492. okay so   wrapping up the video with the S P 500 because  it's very important to be keeping tabs on what's   going on currently in the S P 500 I have been  warning on YouTube in previous videos and also   on Twitter that there are alarm bells ringing that  we could be facing now a stock market capitulation   in this quarter of this year so Q4 of 2022 and on  the first two days of last week Monday Tuesday we   had a big bounce many were comparing to April 2020  and I was warning this is not April 2020. this is   October 2022 and the difference between the  monetary policy of April 2020 and now is literally   almost the opposite in April 2020 the Fed was  pumping money into the economy at an extraordinary   rate and now they're doing the opposite they're  tightening at the fastest rate in history so I did   warn about this two-day bounce and in fact myself  and GMT members during the daily videos in the   week we were looking to short this and fade this  and it has worked out very nicely but we are now   approaching the previous low which was set at the  end of last month why is this significant because   with such a large amount of buying coming in on  Monday and Tuesday a number the vast majority   of those buyers are going to be looking to exit  their positions below this previous low and if we   do come down especially if we break that low on a  hotter than expected inflation print next Thursday   this could very well proceed quite a strong  sell-off to the downside in the S P 500 and that   is going to bring a risk off sentiment into all of  the markets overall and especially when we look at   say New Zealand and Aussie dollar to the downside  New Zealand Aussie Frank to the downside Euro   New Zealand you're Aussie to the upside and even  Bitcoin to the downside all of those are markets   which would benefit from a risk-off environment so  extremely important to keep an eye on this heading   into next week this Bounce has not yet failed but  it is very close to failing and if those buyers as   usually is the case on the mechanics of a breakout  start to scramble to exit their positions below   the previous low you will see likely quite a  strong sell-off in the S P 500 once we break   these lows so that is it for me for this week guys  as always I hope you enjoyed this video and if you   did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so   far if you enjoyed today's video why not consider  joining us during the week where I share my   charts as well as the setups that I'm personally  looking at trading with members on a daily basis   and we also published the scorecards for over  75 markets in different asset classes including   Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find  out more about the benefits of GMT membership by   clicking the links in the description below and  also in the pinned comment below so thanks for   watching the only thing left to say is take  care and don't get straight safely foreign

2022-10-13 17:20

Show Video

Other news