Weekly Forex Forecast (10/01/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
hey traders it's john fortune here with this week's weekly forex forecast i hope you all had a fantastic new year and looking forward to the new trading year i certainly am we're going to kick off today with a quick review of the key events heading into the next two weeks there isn't too much going on so it won't take us too long to go through this it's just to make sure there's nothing coming up that we need to be prepared for or plan our trades around like an interest rate decision we're then going to look at the scorecards for the currencies in the coming week we'll then have a look at the individual currencies to see how they match up with the scores and then we'll go and look at the best currency pairs heading into next week before finishing with stocks gold silver and bitcoin so that said let's get into today's video so a quick look at the economic calendar shows us that there's not too much coming up this week we need to worry about in terms of economic data we have power testifying on tuesday but not something we really need to plan around we have some cpi data coming out on wednesday i wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar pairs get a bit volatile and you may even see this catalyze the dollar pair somewhat but it's not something we need to plan around that's going to change the trends or reverse the trends that we're going to be looking at today and we also have on fridays some retail sales data but again this is not something we need to pay too much attention to so pretty much a clear week in terms of economic data next week if we skip ahead a week you can see we do have an interest rate decision out of japan but the monetary policy in japan is pretty rigid we've had interest rates at minus 0.1 for a while and this is likely to pass uneventfully so you can trade the yen pairs into this even though we have this uh next week because it's unlikely to cause too much of an effect on the market one day that will probably change and we will see something coming out of this event the boj interest rate decision event however it looks highly unlikely that this is going to change so if we look down for the rest of the week you can see we have some cpi data but again and some employment data these are not things we need to concern ourselves with too much uh this week and it pretty much leaves us with a clear economic calendar and a clear run on the markets over the next week or two okay so let's look at the scorecards going into this week and you can see last week the swiss franc was the strongest the euro was the weakest alongside the new zealand and the yen which were highlighted to the downside and the pound was also quite strong the cat was quite strong now we didn't do a weekly forex forecast video last week of course but i did post this on twitter the scorecards at the beginning of last week and you can see now heading into this week the pound is actually the strongest currency this is the best long highlighted on the scorecards going into this week and we have the new zealand as the weakest currency so certainly pound new zealand is going to be one of my favorite if not my favorite market to look at to the upside going into next week what's important as well is not just the scores but also the net change in the scores where's the momentum going do we have currencies which are strengthening or currencies which are weakening you can see we do have a slight weakening of the swiss franc we have a strengthening of the us dollar but overall it only has a plus one rating so the us dollar although we will look at it somewhat this week because it did increase in strength by a net change of two it's still fairly neutral and any currencies which score around one to zero should be considered neutral currencies we're really looking for the strongest versus the weakest i do also like the cad going is this week when we look at the crude oil market you can see it's very bullish and i do think we're going to see higher highs in crude oil this is going to drag the canadian dollar up and the cad also has some momentum going to the upside we have a net change of plus one from last week so it's strengthened it's strong but it's also been strengthening and this is why although it has the same rating as the swiss franc i would prefer to look at the canadian dollar pairs over the swiss franc pairs now going into next week because of the difference in momentum or the net change in the swiss franc and the canadian dollar so the pound and the cad of my two favorite long's going into next week and the second short the downside the japanese yen is my second favorite short going into next week alongside the new zealand dollar so we're going to go and look at the markets we'll look at pound new zealand certainly pound yen these are two markets i really like we'll also be looking at cadion and new zealand cad to the downside we're also going to look at the swiss franc pairs because although it's slightly weakening it is still quite strong but i prefer it as a long after pound cad and then the swiss franc in third place and finally we will look at some of the us dollar pairs because of the plus two net change however it's my least favorite long simply because it scores one which is telling us it's actually currently neutral we do also have fomc in three weeks time so it'd be interesting to see if this corrects interference or not okay so let's have a look at the individual currencies this week starting with the dollar and you can see this is pretty much just confirming what we looked at in the scorecards the dollar is correcting in an overall uptrend and it's really just been moving sideways ever since the end of december we are bullish to neutral going into next week and it is structured to the upside we're actually starting to develop an inverse head and shoulders it's not yet confirmed and that would be confirmed on a break above this level that would likely send the xy higher into the 9610 but really again visually this should just be underscoring everything we discussed when looking at scorecards which is that the dollar is kind of neutral and you could see this moving either way next week so we will look at it somewhat to the upside because it is forming an inverse head and shoulders in an overwatch trend but i do prefer pound cad and also the swiss rank to the upside before us dollar long positions next week so the dollar is currently neutral still the next market is the euro the euro is really just doing the inverse here of what we discussed in the dollar instead of correcting in an uptrend we're correcting in a downtrend and we've also started to develop a head and shoulders that would be confirmed on a breakdown below here so really you can't get much more neutral than this because we're in a correction and we haven't even confirmed any reversal patterns here so the euro yes it scores -2 but this is another reason why i would much prefer new zealand shorts and yen shorts over euro shorts heading into next week because the euro it has the same score as the yen and the new zealand but out of the three of them it's actually the strongest and that's mainly by virtue of the neutrality in the dollar next is the pound now compare the pound to the markets we just looked at this thing is trending to the upside and it's even making new highs here in the four-hour chart so any pullback in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to look further advances next week i'm going to be looking into the 1.3669 and this is my favorite long heading into next week in terms of currencies so i'll absolutely be keeping an eye on pound long positions next week next is the swiss franc now the swiss franc is still structured to the upside and it is still technically bullish overall however you can see we came down at the end of last week and this ended up causing that reduction in the strength of the swiss franc went from a plus three to a plus two so the swiss franc is still strong i do like it over and above the us dollar in terms of long setups however not as good as the pound which we just looked at next is the japanese yen the japanese yen has sold off to the downside and you can see we have a big momentum sell-off down here this is the previous correction right here and what this is showing you is this breakout down here with momentum is pointing towards further declines to the downside so any pullback as we're getting here should be viewed as an opportunity to just simply look for further declines and this breakout to the upside is likely to fail and as a result pound shorts heading into next week certainly pound yen to the upside is something i'm going to be paying attention to next is the cad now the canadian dollar is structured to the upside and you can see we are developing an inverse head and shoulders here that would be confirmed on a break above this level which we're coming very close to although we have a target at the 0.7933 if it breaks this level here and this confirms an inverse head and shoulders you could see this start to rally with some strength so if that's the case cad long positions as well are definitely something i'm going to be paying attention to this week especially as the cad has some momentum in it we saw it increasing in strength from a score of one on last week's scorecards to a rating of plus two this week so look out for this break in the canadian dollar and going into next week especially with crude oil structure to the upside as we're going to see i do favor cad strength heading into next week next is the australian dollar now the australian dollar is currently structured to the upside but if we zoom out a little bit here to me this just looks like a large correction in an overall downtrend and i would not be surprised to see this starting to break down with some momentum at some point now the scorecards are showing the australian dollar as a score of minus one so it's telling us even if this is going to continue lower be a little bit patient for the time being on australian shores let some momentum come into the market let the australian dollar weaken to a score of two or three before we look to short it so i would not be long the aussie dollar even though this is stretched to the upside but it may be a little bit too early too short in any significant way and compared to the japanese gem we looked at i would favor the yen to the downside over the australian dollar next week and finally we have the new zealand dollar and the new zealand dollar is pretty much the same as what we just discussed in the australian dollar in the sense that this is technically structured to the upside here however the scorecards are telling us that this is more than likely just a correction and a downtrend and although it's technically structured to the upside now do not be surprised to see this coming down taking out the low and reversing to the downside usually when you have a score of minus three or plus three you would expect to see that market really trending either to the upside or the downside the fact that we're still correcting the new zealand dollar it tells me that we might be about to start to trend quite strongly to the downside and this -3 rating in the new zealand dollar alongside a weakening because we went from minus two last week to minus three this week this is really telling me we could be about to break out to the downside in new zealand dollar and so alongside japanese yen i would be interested in those new zealand dollar shorts okay so let's look at the markets themselves heading into this week starting with crude oil and crude oil actually bounced to the upside started to reverse to the upside after failing down here if i were to take this level you can see this is actually a failure to make a low in an overall uptrend and we started to reverse and it does now look like we're going to make a run for the highs overall the 85 75. in the very near term though you can see in the four hours we are starting to form a ball flag here so any pullback in this market next week would be viewed as an opportunity to look for further advances into the next key of resistance the upside at the 82-68 the fact that crude oil is trending to the upside and it's looking to make a run to the 85-75 this also adds some weight to cad long positions and it's another reason why i score cad so highly going into this week it's only one variable of a lot of variables that gives the cad it's waiting this week however it is an important one so if we start with GBPNZD which is the best rated currency pair going into this week you can see that we are really trending to the upside here and you can see we've broken out of the previous minor correction here with momentum i do like this quite a lot going into next week i'm absolutely going to be keeping on this pair and you can see it scored as one of my top six going into next week any pull back and i would be looking for a pull back towards the previous breakout in this area but any pullback in this area would be viewed as an opportunity to look for longs i'm looking for the next key of resistance the 2.0262 next is GBPJPY also very high on my list probably my second favorite maybe even first favorite uh looking at that momentum to the downside in the japanese yen but you can see we started to pull back GBPJPY again we didn't do a weekly forex forecast video last week but i tweeted the scorecards and GBPJPY was highlighted as one of the best longs last week on the scorecards and look at the rally we had in fact i think it was the best performing market last week we started to pull back which is great because any pullback gives us a better opportunity to enter these markets so any deep correction is simply viewed not as a reversal but an opportunity to look for bullish reversals bullish breakouts into the 15820 first and foremost and i think if we break through here because it's quite close we could even be coming up to the second target next week at 160.06 next is EURGBP
this was also highlighted last week as one of the best currencies in the scorecards which i tweeted out and it was to the downside it was highlighted as one of the best shorts and if you shorted this last week you got paid nicely heading into this week you can see we're just correcting and so any pullback in this market is going to be viewed next week as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals i'm going to be looking down to the 0.8287 again you can see highlighted as one of my top six currency pairs going into next week next is GBPAUD now we've already discussed the fact that the australian dollar it's kind of bearish to neutral and this is why this is not highlighted one of my favorite yes GBPAUD is structured to the upside yes we have very nice momentum and based on what we're seeing here i would be looking for any pullback towards the previous high for an opportunity into the 1.9145 but i have to ask myself well if the euro is weaker than the aussie and the yen is weaker than the aussie and the new zealand is the weakest of all why tie up my capital in pound aussie when i could trade GBPNZD or GBPJPY or even EURGBP to the downside so i am bullish on GBPAUD but i prefer the other three markets going into next week next is NZDCAD, NZDCAD is trending to the downside and we have some real strong momentum in here again look for a pullback towards these previous lows over here and any pullback in this market is going to be simply used as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next key of support which as you can see is a 0.8460 and with the new zealand dollar weakening gaining momentum to the downside going from -2 to -3 last week and the canadian dollar doing the opposite strengthening from plus one to plus two NZDCAD is a very interesting pair to me heading into next week and it makes the top six here next is NZDCHF now actually shorted NZDCHF last week and that was because the new zealand was weak the franc was the strongest but because the swiss franc dipped back a little bit from its highs of three to two we saw this being a little bit choppy however we did end up closing the week down if you shorted this somewhere near the up move or near the resistance areas up here you would have made money but it just didn't explode to the downside as i quite would have liked it to have last week going into this week however everything we've looked at suggests to me that this is still going to come down to 0.6140 and i do
still have a bearish bias on this so any pullback in this market we've already started to pull back but say we try and take out previous highs over here it's simply viewed as an opportunity to once again look for further declines into the 0.6 140 and as i highlighted last year this is a high conviction target so when you combine all those things i do think we come down in NZDCHF and it makes one of my favorite pairs going into next week next is new zealand dollar this is on here really by virtue of the weakness of the new zealand we have broken now and confirmed head and shoulders to the downside and we pulled back and retested it if you really wanted to trade a dollar strength play next week i guess this would be the one because the new zealand is the weakest so if for whatever reason we get a weakening of the us dollar instead of it flying in your face and you're taking a bigger loss this will probably just chop and range and any losses would be minimum but again you know why short new zealand dollar if you can short some of these markets or go along some of these markets is a good question to ask and for that reason i would probably prefer to look at the other markets maybe on the basis that the new zealand weakened last week and at the same time we had the us dollar increasing by a score of two it does suggest because the dollar is gaining momentum and we just have this initial breakout here i wouldn't be surprised to see this coming down and seeing the dollar ending up being a plus two next week perhaps so as it stands certainly a market i think is set for further declines however i do prefer the other new zealand pairs to the downside as i said next is CADJPY now CADJPY makes one of my favorite markets going into next week it makes the top six here and that's because of what we looked at in the end the fact it scores weak and the fact that we may have a inverse head and shoulders breakout in the cad with a strong crude oil so any pullback in this market is simply viewed next week as an opportunity to look for bullish setups into the 92 90. again one of my favorite pairs heading into next week next is CHFJPY now CHFJPY previously came up and took out a target set at 126.96 and it started to pull back however based on what we're looking at i do think we probably make a run into this target one more time so any pullback in this market is viewed as another run or an opportunity for another run into the 1.2696
but we are seeing some momentum coming out of the swiss franc and even when we looked at the swiss franc itself we saw a break to the downside and we're seeing a bit of a sell-off so i would prefer to trade GBPJPY to the upside and CADJPY into the upside but it does look like we could see further advances in CHFJPY and finally here we have the dollar pairs which of course are my least favorite because of the neutrality of the dollar if you remember at the end of last year in the last video we discussed a couple of markets even i think there was three markets we looked at which were potentially setting up for big reversals indicating deflation all of those failed they one of them was uh USDJPY we were looking at this left shoulder head and we were sitting here and i said if this starts to break down especially if we come down and confirm a breakdown here and we have a confirmed head and shoulders this would be indicating deflation and instead we took out the high or the head and we're making new heights we're trending to the upside so it's indicating the complete opposite now this is telling us that we're probably looking at a reflationary scenario and if we look at the us dollar versus the japanese yen you can see we have really nice momentum here to the upside i mean it was kind of struggling to make new hires and then it exploded with momentum and this is setting up just a big ball flag so any continued pullback i would look for a reversal higher and i would be looking up to first of all the previous high and then on to the next key of resistance to the upside which in this case is the 117.04 and finally we have EURUSD, EURUSD is kind of mimicking what we looked at just in the euro itself it is correct in a downtrend it has formed a head and shoulders reversal pattern here that would be confirmed on a breakdown below here so if i were going to trade the dollar pairs i think i would prefer NZDUSD first and foremost but EURUSD may become interesting to me if we break this low because that would set into motion a head and shoulders reversal to the downside in an overall downtrend and that would more than likely be the end of this correction and a breakdown below this level would see us coming down in all probability to the 1.1146 so you can keep an eye out for this as well i am overall bearish on it but again i think there are better markets to focus on and trade next week over and above EURUSD the neutrality in the dollar the score cards when we get neutral scorecards it's trying to keep us out of this that's the whole point these corrections come to an end but we don't want to be trying to jump into this and just being chopped around for two three four weeks so i'd be very wary of EURUSD unless we break the low over here and confirm this head and shoulders okay so let's finish up with stocks XAUUSD, XAGUSD and bitcoin starting with the SPX the SPX is technically structured to the upside the slight issue we have here is that although it's structured to the upside we are seeing the technology sector actually breaking down somewhat and this is causing because it makes up such a big component of the SPX this is causing the drag on the SPX we also have volatility at higher levels and this is also keeping a drag on the SPX so i am bullish overall on the SPX however for reasons i just discussed i wouldn't want to be naked long on the SPX or on stocks in the SPX i'd rather have long short at least until we start to see some breaks to the upside volatility coming down and even what would be great is the tech sector picking up for the SPX bulls so technically speaking i am looking for higher highs in this market we are starting to sell off i wouldn't be surprised to see us coming down a bit further for reasons just discussed however at some point i would be looking for this to reverse and break higher i would be looking overall back up to the 4815.04 next is the nasdaq now the nasdaq is breaking down
towards the previous low over here and again this is just reflective of what i said about the technology sector and tech stocks in general we are coming very very close to the low down here and the problem i have here in the nasdaq is if we are to break the one five five one three eighty this is going to at the very least be indicative of a bigger correction here in the nasdaq so in order to be bullish on the nasdaq what we'd really have to see first is that have to see this failing to make a low very similar to what we looked at the beginning oil and then reversing to the upside and that would be the opportunity to start to get bullish on this once again for the time being i think what this is showing you is as i said tech is really underperforming and for those of you who like to trade the indices themselves i would prefer the s p 500 over the nasdaq so i am bullish but i absolutely wouldn't just be stepping in to try and buy the low here i would like to see this reverse higher to confirm a bullish bias and a trend reversal to the upside in this market so patience required here on the nasdaq next is the dow jones now the dow jones is actually making new highs and it's just pulled back slightly i actually prefer this compared to what we looked at just now in the nasdaq and in terms of being long or bullish next week i like the dow jones alongside the s p 500 better than the nasdaq so any continued pullback in this market is simply viewed as a near-term correction for a breakout to the upside and further advances into the 36 986.88 next is the russell now the russell of course is showing us or it's indicative of the small cap stocks or the small businesses in the us and we did come down and we tested the low down here around the 2107. if the russell comes down and breaks this low once again this is going to be a major reversal in the russell and since the russell is more sensitive to the business cycle this would be a significant serious warning for the rest of the stock market as it stands this is not the case it has not come down and broken this low with momentum and if anything it's actually forming a developing inverse head and shoulders so i would be looking for the russell to come down in this area and then start to break higher if it starts to break higher it would need to break the previous high over here to confirm a new trend to the upside so it's currently neutral i would be neutral on the russell and i would certainly turn bullish on the russell if it were to break this high so patience required on the russell and certainly if we come down and break this low and we start breaking this low with momentum that is going to be a serious warning for the rest of the stock market so the russell going into next week really is a wait and see and finally here we have the nifty now the nifty is structured to the upside and it looks like we've just finished a large correction in the nifty and we started to break higher so any pullback in the nifty is viewed simply as an opportunity to look for bullish setups into the next target at the 18012.04 so wrapping up with XAUUSD, XAGUSD and bitcoin and the first market we're looking at here is XAUUSD now XAUUSD is an extremely interesting market going into next week i tweeted yesterday when i was looking through the markets it looks like it's set to explode and i wasn't kidding when i said that there's a reason for that that very often when we get into a situation we're currently in now with gold the market tends to explode one way or the other we're going to look and see if we can work out which way this is going to go now let's zoom out here first just to get a picture of what's going on here in gold we've been in a major correction for quite a while stretching all the way back here to august 2020 and the bottom of this correction came over here we then rallied higher and we came down we failed as far as i'm aware to take out this bottom and on the failure to take out this bottom we formed a major inverse head and shoulders in gold that major inverse head and shoulders which is a bullish reversal pattern or a bottom in the market came right near the low of the correction and it was confirmed on a break above this high over here we broke above this high and we pulled back and what we did was when we pulled back we broke the previous low over here so we broke this high confirming the head and shoulders to the upside and by breaking this low and pulling back into this area we actually set up a developing head and shoulders to the downside so we have a major inverse head and shoulders to the upside and now we also have a major head and shoulders to the downside we have a one up one down situation and what this means is it means one of these patterns is going to go and when it breaks after the correction we've had more than likely we're going to see this market explode one way or the other now going into next week the position i'm taking here is a bullish position i would like to have seen the dollar weakening that would have helped with this however the dollar is kind of neutral so it doesn't tell us or it's not extremely helpful in telling us which way the gold breakout is going to come because we have this big correction in an overwatch trend i would in the longer term favor this to break to the upside anyway and what we also have here is we have a confirmed inverse head and shoulders when we broke this level and we do not yet have a confirmed head and shoulders we have a developing head and shoulders so we have to as it stands give preference to the confirmed pattern which is the inverse head and shoulders over in this area if this fails though if this fails and we start to break down below this low so the 176203 this could trigger a major sell-off in gold because not only would we break and confirm this head and shoulders pattern here but we would more likely come down we would break the right shoulder of the previous pattern and we would come down take out this low and if we took out this low all of these traders are going to pull their positions and that would likely start a major sell-off in gold we could even be coming down to the 1575. so as it stands going into next week if this market is likely
to end the correction it's likely to explode one way or the other i really do want to pay attention to this because it might take a little bit of reactivity next week that means watching the market seeing what's happening and seeing the market as it develops i will keep you guys updated on twitter about what i'm seeing in gold as the market more information comes in and we start to develop next week but if we zoom in a little bit further here so we're looking now at the near term we already know this is a potential developing right shoulder you can see we also have a smaller one up one down scenario we have this double bottom which is a confirmed reversal to the upside and at the same time last week we actually broke down and confirmed a potential head and shoulders here and if you look at where we close the week we close the week between these two levels so i mean this is right at the point where it's likely to go either way so going into next week what i'm going to be looking for is the following i would like to see the price of gold breaking above the 1798 0.93 like this and if we start to break higher and especially if we reverse to the upside like this this is going to be a great opportunity to look further advances in gold and we're going to be looking up to the 1842.97 as a near-term target but in truth if we break to the upside as i said i think this market could be set for a bigger move and i would probably almost certainly in fact want to hold on to any long positions i got down in this area because if we break this high that's where we could see the big momentum coming in and to the downside if we break this low that's where we can start to see the initial momentum coming in but a break of this low could trigger that much bigger selloff to the downside so alongside the currency pairs are highlighted in today's video i am absolutely going to be keeping an eye on gold because if this breaks i do want to be involved so let me just summarize this for you to make this as clear as possible where we're currently structured and you can see we have this double bottom in the four hours here with an engulfing candle in the four hours where we're currently structured if you want to be more conservative wait for a trend reversal to the upside the major breakouts would come above here or below here in all probabilities and the initial because you'd be looking at this as an almost a b and a c the initial move higher is what i'm looking at so more or less for us to move up from where we're at but the first warning sign if that's going to fail would be below here okay so if we come down and we start to break like this that is the warning sign that this pattern has failed and we're going to continue down and probably make a run for this over here so i favor long positions in gold next week based on what i'm seeing but in my opinion this is not a market you want to be on the wrong side of for too long because i think it's actually going to make a break now one way or the other so this market is structured for a major breakout to the upside but when you get these setups if they fail you tend to see a large amount of momentum in the opposite direction that's the important takeaway for gold going into next week next is XAGUSD now XAGUSD is actually this should be red this is having broken to the downside this inverse head and shoulders here you can see silver is making its way towards 21.45 the other thing with silver is though this was an inverse head and shoulders break to the upside and just like gold we've kind of broken and now we're pulling back and really where you could consider both of these markets as being neutral but getting ready for what's likely to be a big break one way or the other so going into next week i wouldn't really want to short silver i really would only like to personally trade gold next week either to the long side which i prefer but the very best traders that's the situation where actually you'll find they close in reverse positions because you get momentum both ways so it's technically structured to the downside i personally wouldn't want short silver next week i'm going to leave silver next week and i'm going to prefer to focus on gold you can see as well if we come and have a look at the gold silver ratio gold is actually breaking to the upside with momentum against silver so i'd much prefer to look to gold to break out to the upside down silver and finally we're going to finish up the video with bitcoin now bitcoin is trending to the downside the next care of support is the 3963.
so any pullback in bitcoin is going to be viewed as an opportunity for further declines down to that level and then if we break through here the next gear of support to the downside is a 35 452 so that is it for me for this week guys really like pound longs like cad longs going into next week specifically like new zealand shorts and also japanese yen shorts next week and i'm really keeping a close eye on gold because it's as neutral as neutral can be looking like it's about to explode one way or the other as i said i favor long positions i will keep you guys posted on twitter as gold develops next week and hopefully we can get a nice break out to the upside in gold so with that said i hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week and also for the rest of the year i'll be back again next saturday with a new video until then the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2022-01-09 16:02