Weekly Forex Forecast (09/05/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (09/05/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here with  this week's weekly forex forecast hope   you're having a fantastic weekend we're going to  go through the process that we normally go through   in today's video last week was a fantastic week we  had fomc as well on the wednesday and the markets   really just corrected and then started to move  from fomc and i did state in last week's video   that that was most likely to be the case and  as you can see we came down below the major   breakout level highlighted previously and also  in the thread that i posted on twitter with the   major dxy breakout at the 102 992 and that was  purely on the basis of the fed taking off the   table the 0.75 rate hike however markets quickly  realize this is not super dovish because the fed   are still hiking into an economic slowdown we've  already seen the contraction in gdp for q1 of this   year and as a result we saw the dxy snapping back  above the major breakout level of the 102.992 and   we close the week up in this area so if we have  a quick look at the economic calendar and we just   skimmed through what we had last week in terms of  economic data because it was quite a bit going on   we did have an interest rate decision out to  australia where they raised interest rates   very slightly was fairly hawkish however this  is not a significant increase in interest rates   the next key thing to pay attention to from last  week was fomc on wednesday we had the hike of 0.5  

however we saw that initial dip as the fed took  0.75 off the table again this is not dovish this   is actually bullish and when you add this hike  cycle to the recent contraction in gdp this is why   we're seeing the dollar climb even higher since  fomc we also had an interest rate decision out   of the uk where they raised rates up to 1 from  0.75 and we saw the pound actually sell off   quite hard and one of the primary reasons for this  was that the bank of england forecast a potential   recession in the uk and of course if there's going  to be a recession markets are forwards looking so   they're selling the pound because they're  looking at interest rates having to go down   which of course is bearish for the pound and  finally we had non-farm payrolls on friday we   did have a beat but with everything going on  in the rest of the week with fmc especially   this is really nothing we need to pay attention to  per se in terms of short-term trading if we jump   ahead to what's coming up this week you can see  we have a pretty clear calendar the main thing and   the only thing we really need to pay attention  to is the cpi data out of the us on wednesday   generally speaking this has not historically been  a massive event because inflation has been pretty   stable but as inflation has picked up this event  has become more and more important so again just   like with fomc last week if you see the dollar  index kind of not doing much monday tuesday into   wednesday it may be getting ready to move on the  cpi print so just be aware of that heading into   next week but apart from that we have a pretty  clear run and a pretty clear economic calendar in   terms of major events next week okay so if we look  at the scorecards heading into this week there's a   few key things to take note of first and foremost  is that the us dollar is still currently scored as   the best long on a one-month forward-looking basis  the pound is still the best short going into next   week and also on top of that we actually have the  pound weakening from minus two to minus three this   is really the best signal you can get when you  have a weak currency which is becoming even weaker   that is your best short signal so absolutely i'm  going to be focused on pound shorts once again as   an absolute priority next week i am going to  be focused on usd long positions but because   the pound is also weak and weakening i actually  like pound shorts as a place to make money next   week over and above even us dollar long positions  so pound shorts are my number one theme heading   into next week that i'm going to pay attention to  the second thing to note is the euro has actually   strengthened from last week minus one and it  now sits at one so this is kind of going from   bearish to neutral to bullish to neutral but it's  still kind of neutral but why this is important is   because whenever you see the us dollar and the  euro scoring either both strong or both weak   it tends to suggest markets are getting a little  bit corrective and especially if they've had   long runs which we've seen in the dxy and in  markets in general it's a sign that the markets   may start to become a little bit less volatile may  go into a slight contraction or consolidation and   generally speaking this is a good sign to actually  take fewer trades perhaps and look only for the   best trades because it's a sign that the overall  market condition may be turning less volatile and   when that happens you tend to have less trading  opportunities so the best way to think about this   is like a sign curve like this and one  of the most overlooked aspects of trading   is when to allocate capital take more risk  when to allocate less capital take less risk   and when the market is more volatile you have more  trading opportunities so for example the market   is more volatile you have more opportunities and  therefore it's a good time to allocate more risk   and when the market becomes less volatile over  here and there are less trading opportunities this   is when markets can get more choppy overall and  this is when it's a better time to actually take   less risk and what happens is a lot of traders  they completely overlook this and they just try   to trade and allocate capital the same way every  day or every week or all the time essentially   whereas really it should be a process of  trading more because market conditions are   good and then trading a little bit less because  market conditions are not as good and then when   they start to pick up you can trade a little bit  more and of course what happens in reality is   that traders or new traders especially will  end up on the wrong side of this because   when they get really good market opportunities  they have either made money and so they want to   make more money and very often let's say they  traded this and they've made really good money   well now up in this area just as opportunities  are about to dwindle or contract they get   perhaps greedy and they actually start to trade  twice as much because they've made more money   and they just end up giving all their profits back  as opportunities roll over or even worse what will   happen is traders will be scared because down in  this area they've traded and they've taken losses   and the market opportunities come back  in and they kind of sit on the sidelines   and they watch and they say wow trading conditions  are fantastic and then right up in this area   as they've sat all this out they start to  allocate capital and the market rolls over   and they feel like they're always on the wrong  side of trades and it's partly because of this   so when you see the euro and when you see the  dollar both strong or both weak you tend to be   sort of around this but it's a sign we could  be either peaking or troughing and of course   because we've had fantastic moves it's a sign we  may be over here so just in case we're about to   see the markets contract and opportunities kind of  present themselves less often over the next couple   of weeks that is why i'll be taking a little bit  less risk and looking only for the best trades   until we start to see the us dollar and the euro  at opposite ends of the scorecards because that   will be telling us that once again we're moving  into a point where market conditions are providing   more opportunities okay so let's have a look at  the individual currencies and we're on the daily   chart as always because we want to just get an  overall view a big picture of what's going on here   and in the dxy you can see we have broken out  of the 102.992 i mentioned in the twitter thread   and previous videos this is a major multi-year  breakout it's a seven year consolidation breakout   and we closed the week above this level with  the appearance of the euro in the positive end   of the scorecards maybe i mean this would make  sense technically we start to see a little bit   of a consolidation in the dollar index around  this level you very often get that with major   breakouts because you have disagreements you have  traders trying to sell them and you have some   traders trying to buy the breakout and as a result  market can kind of consolidate or just chop now   the important thing to note and you'll see when  we go through the rest of the currencies is the   dollar is the only outright technically bullish  currency and i am still bullish on the dollar   so i'm still going to be focused on dollar long  positions next week next is the euro now the euro   is a little bit of an indication of what we may  see in the dollar because it's essentially the   inverse of the dxy and the euro unlike the dollar  which kind of dipped back below its breakout level   this has not even come back to test the major  multi-year breakout at the 1.06710 so it tells me   that these breakouts are at least the time being  technically holding and again perhaps seeing the   euro and the dollar both at the positive end of  the scorecard is just an indication that we're   going to come back and re-test this level for  example and consolidate before continuing and   in this case down to the 1.0376 so i am bearish  on the euro but the scorecards may be indicating  

a near-term consolidation perhaps for a  few days or maybe even a week we will see   and for that reason euro is not one of my best  pairs next week but i am still looking for shorts   especially as the euro remains below is 1.06710  major multi-year breakout level next is the pound   now last week we came and took out the target  set at the 1.2350 we are quite close to the   next target maybe we take this target out first  if we do then any pullback will be viewed as an   opportunity to look for shorts into the 1.2081 not  necessarily going to be trading pound futures but  

this of course will be bearish for the pound pairs  next is the swiss franc we took out both targets   to the downside and finished the week right  at the second target i am still bearish on the   swiss franc and you can see we have some strong  momentum to the downside so any corrections in   the swiss franc are as it currently stands viewed  as an opportunity to look for short positions in   the swiss franc this is also in line with the snb  policy of devaluation so we have the wind of the   swiss central bank in our sales with any shorts  and they are usually always the best trades next   is the japanese yen i highlighted in previous  videos the major multi-year breakout of the   four 0.007945 we broke through and we haven't even  come back and retested this this thing is just   continuing to the downside i explained also in  previous videos why this is taking place because   of the interventions in the japanese bond market  by the boj and as it stands i'm still bearish on   the japanese yen next is the canadian dollar we  actually took out the target to the downside at   0.7754 and the interesting thing about the cad is  you can see technically this is a bearish currency   however because of the price of crude oil which  is rising it has been supported and retained   some relative strength vis-a-vis the other  currencies when i put all of the macro data   into the scoring system the canadian dollar  scores relatively better than the other   currencies this is why you see it scoring plus  two and as we can see from last week although   the canadian dollar itself sold off we still had  some profitable trades we identified such as new   zealand cats such as poundcad so once again  the cad itself is not particularly bullish   and i much prefer us dollar long positions but i  will also consider cad strength plays head into   next week especially pound cad and new zealand cad  which once again highlighted as two of my favorite   pairs next week next is the australian dollar  we had a bit of a rally and then we had a rate   hike out of australia and this hasn't really  changed the outlook for the australian dollar   because we're in a kind of stagflationary scenario  still it has been benefiting however you can see   this has been waning and the aussie has been  losing some strength recently so overall bearish   but kind of bearish to neutral technically  speaking on the aussie and of course in the   scorecards we are kind of neutral as well bullish  to neutral and finally the new zealand dollar the   new zealand dollar is bearish it's kind of bearish  to neutral in the scorecards but i do like the new   zealand dollar for further declines and as you can  see it's going to be one of the things i'm going   to be focused on next week primarily in the form  of new zealand and new zealand cad which we're   going to look at now okay so let's have a look at  the markets themselves where are the best setups   heading into next week starting with crude oil  crude oil is making its way towards the target   set in previous videos at the 113-888 any pullback  in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look   for bullish setups into as i said the 113.8 and  i do believe this target is now going to be taken   out possibly next week i would say even probably  next week and if we start to break through here   going to be looking up to the 118.20 this  is also important not just in love itself   but in the canadian pairs we're going to be  looking at and also a bonus chart which i'm   absolutely going to be focused on next week i  think is going to be potentially a fantastic place   to make money that is pound mex and we're going  to be looking at that in today's video as well   next is pound dollar now pound dollar was my  favorite short last week and we had a really nice   sell-off over two percent peter trough and closed  at this target set from last week almost to the   point at the 423 going into this week i am focused  on pound shorts this is one of my favorite if not   my favorite setup i think pound mex may actually  be my favorite setup heading into next week but   outside of the bonus chart of powermax we're going  to look at pound dollar is my favorite chart going   into next week we have broken out of this what  i'd like to see next week is i'd like to see a   pullback possibly even a retest of this area over  here and any pullback is simply going to be viewed   as another opportunity to look for shorts into  the one point two two five two after right through   here on to the one point two oh eight ten so pound  dollar shorts are at the top of my list to keep an   eye on four entries next week next is new zealand  now new zealand dollar was also a fantastic short   last week again highlighted in last week's  video as one of the best pairs to look at   this pool back here was nothing more than an  opportunity as we had pre-planned to short this   market into the target we came just short of the  target so anybody short from last week i would   be looking for this target to be now taken out  for anybody not already involved from last week   any pullback in this area is a second opportunity  to look for shorts into the 0.6384 but if i think   which is most likely going to happen if we come  down and we take out this target first and then   we bounce and start to pull back i'm going to be  looking for shorts into the next care of support   to the downside 0.6240 next is us dollar japanese  yen we are completing in fact we're just starting  

to break out of a ball flag here and i do like  this market to the upside the only reason it's   not highlighted in gold is purely because if you  remember from previous videos the japanese gem   was oversold and it's moving from right to left  on the scorecards it's actually strengthening a   little bit even though the yen is over a week so  i do like us dollar yen to the upside don't get me   wrong i certainly think any pullback is going to  be viewed as an opportunity or should be views an   opportunity to look for long positions first into  the previous highs but then on to the 132.15 so i   am going to be looking for setups in this market  but i'm going to prioritize pound dollar and new   zealand dollar if i get some positions in pound  or new zealand dollar i might leave us dollar   yen however that is the setup i'm looking for in  this market now us dollar swiss franc similar to   us yen it could it's very close to being on  my favorite list but i just don't like these   markets as much as i like the top two here so i am  bullish on us dollar swiss franc very similar to   new zealand dollar i believe it was when we  come this close to the target what we want to   really see is the market taking out the target  first because there's not much risk to reward here   the trade was from down in this area on the  pullback last week when we're looking at this   market so i'd like to see this market take out  the 0.9898 first if it does that and starts to   pull back i'm going to be treating this as simply  another opportunity to look for bullish setups or   bullish breakouts into the 0.9959 next is euro  dollar now look at euro dollar to the downside  

again to be honest with you this probably could be  on my favorite list outside of the other markets   here euro dollar to the downside is the one  market you could probably put up here and i   would say it's my third favorite even i've listed  these slightly higher the reason is because we've   pulled back and retested the major multi-year  breakout in euro dollar and look at that retest   of the 1.06359 we have now started to make head  and shoulders and i would not be surprised to see   this market start to break down from the levels  we're already at so going into next week i am   absolutely going to be focused on shorts in this  market down to the next kiev supporter the 1.0341   if there's one other market you could add in to  the favorites list next week it would be this   one and in fact the only reason it doesn't  make the list is because of that plus one in   the scoring system so definitely going to be  looking for shorts but it just misses out on   the favorites list because of that plus one score  in the macro scoring system and the last dollar   pair we're going to look at is aussie dollar my  least favorite out of all of these however i am   still bearish so any pullback in this market  would be viewed as an opportunity to look for   bearish reversals into the 0.6988 next is poundcad  last week we took out the target at the 1.5875   going into this week this is one of my favorite  pairs guys keep an eye out for pound cad to   reach its target 1.5737 i think this is one of the  highest probability setups heading into next week  

and i would put the ability for this market to  reach its target the 1.5737 over 85 percent i   genuinely think this is going to be a place to  make money next week so keep an eye on pound cad   any continued pullback is simply viewed as  an opportunity to look for shorts once again   into the 1.5737 keep an eye on pound cad next week  next is new zealand cad we took out the target set   in last week's video this was one of the best  setups highlighted in last week's video and we   took out target 0.8238 coming into this week this  is a very interesting market because the next key   area of support is down at 0.80 160. this could  potentially come down to here very quickly the   reason i've added in a minor target here at the  0.8150 is because it may not do this all in one   week so going into next week the target i'm going  to be looking at although it's a minor target   and i am looking for the 0.80 160 overall any  pullback in this market is going to be viewed as  

an opportunity to look for bearish reversals into  the 0.8150 and the final cad pair we're looking at   here is cad yen again not highlight is one of my  favorite because the japanese yen is moving this   way across the scorecards it's strengthening  somewhat even though it's clearly bearish   and you can see that reflected in the price  action last week this market was kind of choppy   whereas we've got good sell-offs in pound cad new  zealand cad so any continued pullback is still   viewed as an opportunity to look for potential  long positions and breakouts to the upside   into the 103.45 and if you want a conservative  target i'd be looking for the previous high over   here in cadyan the next market is pound mex now  i think this is a really good market heading into   next week we have some strong momentum and what  i'd like to see is any pullback in this market is   going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for  bearish reversals down to the next key of support   to the downside to 24.71 the strengthening of  crude oil is really a large variable or factor in   the recent strength of the mexican peso and pound  mex may very well be my favorite short going into   next week it's certainly my top three pound shorts  which is pound mex pound cad and pound dollar   those three pairs there are going to be my main  focus for making money in the markets next week   and the final forex market we're going to look at  here is euro pound now i like euro pound because   when we look at the scoring system we  see the euro actually bullish to neutral   and the reason i've highlighted this in purple  is because this is a market we can put on our   watch list as a plan b a backup trade or what you  may term a synthetic hedge and you can play those   markets when you have for example the euro and  the dollar both scoring strong or weak because   you can say to yourself well what if the us dollar  is about to weaken somewhat then pound dollar may   just get corrective like this but if that happens  then euro pound will rise to the upside because   as the dollar weakens and the euro strengthens you  will see this rising against the weakest currency   so it's not a top priority heading into next  week but if for whatever reason the dollar   pairs primarily pound dollar new zealand dollar  fail to provide any good moves and they just kind   of chop around because we see a weakening of the  dxy have a look at euro pound and any pullback in   this market would be viewed as an opportunity to  look for a breakout into the 0.8599 and then on   to the 0.8657 so not a main focus of next week but  a nice market to have in your back pocket if those  

us dollar positions don't really go anywhere  or we start to see a weakening of dxy okay so   wrapping up with gold silver and bitcoin i have  in previous videos been highlighting silver as   the best short to the downside and i said silver  is a better short than gold and we've seen silver   outperforming if you will to the downside  vis-a-vis gold now one of the reasons i've   been telling you this is because the one-month  forward-looking score cards for commodities   clearly shows silver as a much better short than  gold gold is more or less neutral whereas silver   is actually scoring pretty weak and this is why  silver has been a much better short recently than   gold and as it currently stands this looks still  to be the case now last week in gold we took out   the target set at the one eight 1.865.64 with a  strong dollar scoring in the forex scorecards and   gold scoring is currently neutral in the commodity  scorecards i do favor further downside in gold but   it is once again not my preference my preference  if you're going short gold or silver would be   short silver so any pullback in gold is still  viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish   reversals although it's not one of my best trades  or best setups heading into next week and any   breakdown is going to be viewed as an opportunity  to look further declines into the 1814.94 next to   silver we took out the target set to the downside  at 22.52 this was highlighted as a good short   last week going into this week this is highlighted  again as one of my favorite setups to the downside   we're quite close to the target so any pullback  in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look   for bearish setups into the 22.02 and if we come  down and take out the target first and then bounce   i'm going to be looking for shorts into the next  care of support to the downside at the 21.45 next  

is silver versus the euro we took out the previous  target set at the 2120. now very much like euro   pound i've put this in purple because although  i favor silver vis-a-vis the dollar to the short   side if we get the dxy weakening or consolidating  and we see the euro relatively strengthening   maybe the euro comes back to re-test the  major breakout level we looked at earlier   then you can actually look at silver vis-a-vis the  euro very much in the same way as euro pounds as a   kind of backup so any pullback in this market  would be viewed as an opportunity once again   to look for shorts into the 21.88 and last but  not least we have bitcoin with stock selling off   and with the dollar very very strong recently  bitcoin has suffered and we've had a long-term   downside target here of the 34-410 bitcoin  i'm sorry to say to those of you who are fans   of bitcoin it is currently in a bit of trouble  and i do see further declines ahead for bitcoin   any pullback and this is a classic bear flag set  up here any pullback in this market is going to be   an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts into  the next clear of support which is highlighted   in previous videos 34 410 and i think there's a  very good chance we go past that onto the 32 935   so that is it from me for this week guys as  always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next week   the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-05-10 14:01

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