Weekly Forex Forecast (08/11/21) EurUsd / XauUsd + FULL PROCESS! [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're all   having a fantastic weekend we're going to kick  off as we always do with a quick review of the   key events heading into next week i'm also going  to look at the events from last week because it   was quite a lot of data coming out last week it  was quite a busy week last week we're then going   to look at the relative currency analysis we're  going to look at the scorecards for the currencies   heading into this week we're going to then do  the individual currency analysis we're going to   look at the currencies on their own we're going to  match those two together and we want to really see   those two things confirm in the relative currency  analysis and the individual currency analysis   once that's done we're going to go and look at  the currency pairs in order ranked best of first   we're going to look at the best markets heading  into next week as shown by the scorecard system   and that really got us in front of some good moves  last week pound franc especially is a market that   we noted in last week's video the pound was  weakening the franc was strengthening in the   scorecards and it was a market which had a really  nice sell-off to the downside and a market which   could have been traded last week despite the fomc  meeting we had on wednesday because it's not going   to be as effective as we discussed last week as  say pound aussie pound new zealand so pound frank   to the downside was a great trade highlighted in  last week's video and once we've looked at the   currency pairs going into this week we're going  to finish as we always do by looking at stocks   XAUUSD XAGUSD and bitcoin and both in stocks gold  and silver there are some very interesting things   happening we discussed last week in stocks that  it looks like we could be coming towards a peak   in stocks and we might see a near-term correction  that's still the case and we're going to look at   that again but XAUUSD and XAGUSD are something  we really need to pay attention to this week   because it looks like we have a major potential  breakout in XAUUSD and we're going to discuss that   in more detail and if that's the case it looks  like XAGUSD is also going to follow so we also   need to take that into account when we're looking  at the currencies and also the dxy this week so   quite a bit to unpack in today's video and we're  going to put all the pieces of the puzzle together   to war gamer plan going into this week and  i'm going to share my plan with you guys   so let's start by having a look at the key  economic data from last week because there   was a number of key dates coming out last week we  first and foremost had the interest rate decision   out to australia there were no changes to  the interest rate and the rba stated that   uh inflation conditions were likely to continue  interest rates were going to remain low   until 2024 potentially at the end of 2023 they  would look at raising rates but they highlighted   2024. so rba reiterating their patience  when it comes to raising rates we also had   employment dates coming out of new zealand this  is important to take note of because we had beat   on the employment change and the unemployment  rate and when we go over to the scoring system   you will see the new zealand dollar is holding up  better than other currencies and it's something   to pay attention to going into next week and new  zealand strength plays are something i will be   keeping my eye on going into next week we also  had fomc on wednesday was a bit of a non-event   fed chairpal came out reiterated the need  to taper but also added in a little bit of   uncertainty by saying that if anything changed and  they needed to deviate from their tapering plan   they would do so now that could mean they could  be more hawkish in terms of tapering faster or   they could deviate in a more dovish way and  actually reduce the rate of taper and etc   so it didn't really mean anything in particular  but the market took it more as a kind of dovish   taper by adding in that potential uncertainty or  that caveat when discussing tapering so the fed   was being purposely vague as usual and the market  took it as a kind of dovish taper and on thursday   which is very important something we need to  pay attention to is that the bank of england   kept rates on hold the market was looking at a  possibility of a rate hike although as far as i'm   aware it wasn't shown in the economic calendar  last week and there were only two out of nine   bank of england officials who voted for a rate  hike so even the vote itself was not potentially   hawkish and the market is now pushing this back  and looking for the bank of england to start to   hike in december instead now the reason this is  important because it caused a big sell-off last   week in the pound we were already looking at  pound shorts in last week's video and it does   make the pound very attractive going into this  week and when we look at the scoring system   the scoring system is underlining the fact that  pound shorts are going to be something we really   want to keep an eye on going into next week and  in fact pound shorts next week are my favorite   play out of all of the markets and all the  opportunities that we're looking at in the forex   markets gold and silver very interesting setups  we're going to look at as well but currencies   pound shorts are looking like some of the  best plays going into next week i'm going   to be keeping my eye on that and if we come  down finally to the end of last week we had   employment data coming out a hit and a miss  from canada so nothing really directional here   and in terms of non-farm payrolls we had a beat  which didn't really do much for the dxy itself   we saw the dxy rallying a little bit but we also  saw stocks primarily spiking higher on this nfp   print but as we'll see when we come to the stock  market we need to be a little bit careful because   it does look like we're going to get some  near-term corrections doesn't mean i'm short   on stocks but as you'll see it's really kind of  a profit taking opportunity in my opinion start   to take some profits off the table perhaps even  start to look at some of those short positions   for a long short portfolio if you're running a  long short portfolio but again all that's come   when we look through the charts and if we finish  off here just by looking at the upcoming data for   this week you can see we do have some speeches  coming out from bank governors these can move the   markets they have the ability to move the markets  but these are not really something we plan around   or plan for in advance if you see some volatility  coming in you'll know why but again like an   interest rate decision this is not something where  i should say unlike an interest rate decision this   is not something which i would be planning trades  around we do have some cpi data coming out on   wednesday cpi data connects to the catalyst don't  be surprised see it get volatile on wednesday and   we have some employment data coming out thursday  from australia again can act as a catalyst but   it's not something we need to plan in advance  for and plan trades around doesn't quite have the   significance of say an interest rate decision so  not too much we need to plan ahead for this week   we do have a us bank holiday on thursday so if  the market just goes nowhere on thursday it's very   very dull then don't be surprised and you'll  know why it's because it's a us bank holiday   so not too much going on this week but certainly  things we can take from the economic events last   week to give us points as indications  of plays and setups going into this week   so looking at the scores on the doors for this  week what's interesting to note is that first   and foremost you can see the us dollar only really  appreciated by one point from completely flat last   week this was not the significant move in the u.s  dollar and in fact because we're scoring this one   to four anything you see between one and minus one  you should really be taking as a neutral market so   what this is telling us is the dollar is slightly  bullish to neutral in the same way that the yen   and the pound are slightly bearish to neutral the  aussie is completely neutral it's completely flat   and the only real currencies showing potential  for opportunity this week are the swiss franc   and the new zealand that's to the upside two  out of four and again if we're two out of four   or three out of four this is kind of the  sweet spot where we want to see currencies   in order to start looking for positions or trading  opportunities in those markets and to the downside   which is in my opinion the most interesting aspect  of the scorecards this week we had the pound   weakening from -2 which it was last week which  was signifying this was a good short last week   and we're now down to minus three so with the  failure to hike and that only two dissenting   voices in the bank of england voting for rate  hikes this has probably set the stage now for   the pound leading into december and it looks  like we're going to see a continued weakening   of the pound going into next week so you know  what's the point of looking at these scorecards   well it's to try and find where the opportunities  are going to be can we avoid the markets which is   going to move sideways or be choppy and can  we get involved in the markets most likely   to move so in my opinion based on this it does  suggest pound shorts should be a primary thing   to look for next week and certainly as my plan is  again you guys are free to trade just as you wish   but for my plan i will be focused primarily on  pound week setups next week if i can get one or   two trades in pound pairs even just one good trade  and the pound sales off and we can bank a profit   there's no need to start trying to trade multiple  markets it's really just about making money and   sometimes the best way to make money is just to  find the best trade the best market and be short   along that market going into the following week  so certainly based on this i'm going to be very   interested in pound frank once again this week  this was a market highlight in last week's video   because we saw the pound weakening at the  same time the swiss franc strengthened   and i'm also going to be interested in pound new  zealand to the downside we can look at some of the   other pairs like pound cad pound dollar to the  downside but just bear in mind you're trading a   weak currency versus kind of neutral currencies  so you should still expect the pound to continue   to depreciate against those currencies but you're  most likely to get the best moves out of say pound   franc pound new zealand i am also going  to be interested going into next week in   frankien to the upside be looking at eurofrank  to the downside euroframe downside was another   market highlighted last week and it was another  market which sold off very nicely to the downside   taking out the target set and so i am going to be  interested in euroframe to the downside once again   i'm interested also in new zealand yen  and also euro new zealand to the downside   we can also look towards cad yen eurocad to the  downside and potentially us dollar yen to the   upside euro dollar to the downside but again as  i say you're really looking at kind of bullish   to neutral currencies versus bearish to neutral  so once we get into that kind of mode you have a   greater risk of reversal of course anytime you're  looking at markets you have a risk of a reversal   but it's greatest when you have neutral  currencies so in short pound shorts looking   like the best played going into this week the us  dollar is more or less neutral after last week's   fomc and the swiss franc and the new zealand  in my opinion based on the process that we use   here are going to be the better currencies to  look for long positions in going into next week   so let's have a look at the individual currency  starting with the dxy now there is something we   really need to pay attention to this week in the  dxy we had that continued rise to the upside took   out the previous highs this uptrend continued  in the dxy last week this is a very weak close   the way this has come up taking out previous  highs and it's just kind of sat back inside here   and we failed to take out the target just by a  handful of points when we look at the dxy going   into next week it's only bullish to neutral it's  basically neutral and this is really reflected in   what we're looking at in the technicals here you  can see we have this correction and we are back   inside this i mean if we were to just put a line  through the middle of this as a range you can see   we're coming back down towards the middle of  this kind of correction this kind of range this   contraction so this is not a particularly bullish  currency but the bullish uptrend is still intact   so what does that mean why is this important well  the issue here is this we can't look at the dollar   this week without looking at gold because at  the end of last week gold did something very   very interesting we started to break what looks  like a major reversal to the upside in gold now   the reason we're looking at gold here is because  we're putting this together with what we just   looked at in the dollar that failure really to  break the previous highs in the dxy with momentum   and the fact we're kind of neutral and we're  looking at that at the same time we're looking   here at gold and it looks like we have a one a two  wave and this looks like a third wave why do i say   that well first and foremost we're coming up from  a low so whenever you come up from a low like this   and you see and you get a one wave what  you're really looking at is you have one   two three four five followed by an a b  and a c and then you get the third wave   now this is at the bottom of a potential right  shoulder which in and of itself is an inverse head   and shoulders and a reversal pattern to the upside  bullish reversal pattern and one of the confirming   factors you look for when you have these potential  five waves to the upside or you're looking for   a one wave a two wave and a third wave to come in  is momentum momentum is key when you're looking   at the start of a trend other to the upside  the downside because what's happening is   all the traders who are shorting this looking  at this as just a basically sell the rip kind   of mentality price comes up they short it price  comes up they short it well what happens is when   the second wave fails to come down and make a  new low all of these shorts cover their positions   summer to loss and any stop losses up in this area  get taken out and as a result you see the market   moving with momentum and that's exactly what we're  seeing in gold i mean look at the close on friday   this is right near the top it's not exactly the  top which would be a bit of a distress close but   it's right near the top and this is showing  real strength on this breakout on this turn   now why this is important when looking  at the individual currencies is because   gold does have a tendency on the turn to  lead the dollar index so we need to look at   these two things together because what we're  seeing is a real lack of momentum in the dxy   at the same time that gold is starting a potential  big breakout to the upside that indicates we could   be near a top in the dollar index now for those  of you who follow the video you'll know i don't   like to pick tops and bottoms i'm not going to  be short on the dxy unless we come down and break   this low here because this is when the reversal  is confirmed because this would be a double top   reversal this as it stands it's just a developing  double top these i've seen many many times just   continue upwards this is a developing double  top over here comes down and you make a new high   this is a developing double top comes down makes a  new high so you can see this is not yet a reversal   the reversal will come if this comes down and  breaks the low over here so what i'm saying to   you guys is because of what we're seeing in gold  we may be and the fact that the currency score   cards are showing the dollar as being kind of  flat we may be seeing a top here in the dxy now   why is this important and how can we use this  information well it means going into next week   if i am looking at any dollar positions vis-a-vis  other currencies i would want to keep dollar long   positions to a minimum i mean really you'd be  looking at just maybe one dollar strength trade   and we can also be kind of clever about it if  we're worried that this may be a top but we're not   going to jump in right near the top and try and  short this thing there are a couple of clever ways   we can play this one of course will be in gold and  we'll come and look at this later when we do gold   but the other would be something like us dollar  japanese yen which i would be interested in why   because us dollar japanese yen to the upside in  and of itself is actually a reflationary trade   when the dollar weakens you can still see the us  dollar rising against the yen because the yen is   more of a safe haven currency than the dollar  so when you have a risk on mentality you see   the dollar weaken and you see the yen weaken so  you see money coming out of the safe haven assets   it goes into the commodity currencies like new  zealand like like the canadian dollar like the   australian dollar but because the japanese yen  is more of a safe haven asset than the us dollar   you can actually see the dollar falling and at the  same time see us dollar yen rising to the upside   so us dollar yen would be a good market in order  to reflect any bullish outlook on the dollar going   into next week because if the dollar does reverse  you could still see us dollar yen rising to the   upside and the second market i'd be interested  in the dollar is pound dollar to the downside why   because if the dollar does reverse and you're  trading it against the pound well because the   pound is so weak you could quite easily see the  us dollar coming down and the pound could just   either move sideways in which case if you're  wrong and this reverses you're not going to   lose too much money because it's not going to go  anywhere because you've got two weak currencies   against each other so all that happens is the  market goes nowhere or in some cases like we've   seen previously with euro new zealand and euro  dollar you could actually see the dollar coming   down and because the pound is much weaker than the  dollar it can still come down and make new lows   so you can actually have pound dollar coming down  as the dx y reverses just on the basis of the   pound being so weak so to summarize what i've just  said the dollar is still trading to the upside   and we are still in an uptrend it has not yet  reversed based on what we're seeing in gold this   may be the top for the dollar and if that's the  case i would primarily only really want to look   for us dollar yen to the upside because you could  still profit from that in a reversal of the dollar   and i would only really be interested maybe pound  dollar to the downside because you could see   this staying choppy or coming down a bit and  you could still see pound dollar coming down   anything outside of us dollar yen and pound dollar  in the dollar pairs next week in my opinion might   be a bit risky because if this is a top you will  see the dollar weakening and if you're trading   something like us dollar swiss franc to the upside  because you want to be bullish to neutral on the   dollar you know you could actually see that coming  down quite hard if the dollar begins to weaken   so that's what i see in the dxy going into next  week and because of the risk of a potential top   indicated by the gold breakout those are the  two markets i prefer to trade if i'm trading   the dollar pairs next week so a little bit  of patience required on the dollar pairs   next is the euro the euro is still trending to  the downside and we're moving towards the 1.14680  

you can see reflecting just the inverse of the  dollar index we came down took out the low so   we're still training to the downside but we have  no momentum here it's it's showing neutrality in   the euro and this is exactly what we see in  the scorecards with a minus one reading it's   bearish to neutral it's neutral but it's bearish  to neutral next is the pound now the pound is the   market which i highlighted last week as good short  because we started to weaken and we came down very   hard we took out both targets in the pound and we  finished the week right at the second target here   going into this week it does look like we're going  to come down and make new lows which means we're   going to at least take out this low by the looks  of it and i would say come down to 1.3401 so what   i would be looking for going into next week is any  continued pullback in the pound in this direction   is going to be viewed as the opportunity to look  for short positions down to the 1.3401 and as   i said before this to me represents one of the  best opportunities in my opinion to make money   next week based on how the currencies are setting  up so as i always say there's no guarantees in   forex but this looks like one of the best highest  probability moves going into next week next is the   swiss franc the swiss franc is still trending to  the upside and we're approaching the 1.1024 target  

after this inverse head and shoulders break no  reason to be bearish on this in my opinion it   does look like we're going to come up and start  taking out these targets and move even higher so   reflecting what we saw in the scorecards as well  next is a japanese yen the japanese yen is bearish   but we've been very neutral why because when we  saw on the scorecards we got down into this area   the japanese yen scored minus four what did i say  at the time i said this was something which is   telling us it's overextended we're likely to see  profit taking coming in and correction and it's   been doing that now for about three weeks it does  look like we're in a fourth wave here and because in wave counts you have the law of alternation  very often deep wave 2 equals a shallow a4 or   a shallow wave 2 equals a deep wave 4 like this  and you can see here we have this what looks like   1 and then we have a very shallow pullback so i  would not be surprised to see this correcting more   the yen is still rated as minus once it's kind  of neutral bearish to neutral but keep an eye   out in the coming weeks for a reversal in the end  because it does look like we're going to come down   for this fifth wave so this fifth wave is still  on the cards it's something we discussed in last   week's video but it's just waiting having the  patience to wait for this to start to roll over   but this fifth wave to the downside is something  i am keeping my eye on whether it happens next   week or the following weeks is something i would  look to position into on the lower time frames   so how exactly would that look like well we'll go  and have a look at that in the yen pairs when we   come to the markets but what you're looking for  really is momentum to the downside so if we go   to the four-hour chart here on the japanese yen  you can see we're just kind of correcting here   what i would like to see is something like this  the market continues to correct and then you're   going to see it doing this and then you see a big  momentum move in this direction like this that's   what you want to see and the market starts to do  this and that's your opportunity to start to look   for shorts that's when you'll know the market is  starting to roll over because you'll see momentum   coming into the downside which we haven't got yet  either to the upside down so you see this is just   correcting so patients are quite on the japanese  yen i am still overall bearish but we may have a   little bit more correction to the upside next  week if we go and have a look at the canadian   dollar the canadian dollar is a market which very  much like the yen i noted in previous videos when   we took out this target that it was essentially  overextended to the upside and we should expect   profit taking to come in that's exactly what we  saw after the scorecard showed us this in advance   it showed us be wary of cad long positions because  we're likely to profit taken and we got that   we got that also exactly from the inverse head and  shoulders target which i highlighted previously   so this is not bearish this is setting up for a  ball flag i am looking for an advance in the cad   as it currently stands it's bullish to neutral  because it's bullish but it's correcting so we're   in a secondary trend in fact that's a corrective  wave or or a correction so i am looking for high   highs coming to this market and i'm looking  for the reversal but as you can see hasn't   taken place just yet next is aussie aussie has  started to break to the downside and in fact   quite interesting last week we had this  double top set up which is a bearish reversal   and we had it right at the major inverse head and  shoulders breakout so what's interesting about   this is if we are going to see a top in the dxy  then you would need to see this breaking higher   and the fact that this has broken down right at  the previous breakout level which is essentially   dollar bullish at the same time we have gold  breaking out to the upside well something has   got to give it's not going to continue like that  because if the us dollar weakens you're going to   see the aussie appreciating more than some of the  other currencies due to its commodity currency   status so technically speaking the aussie is  bearish after this double top reversal that's   actually very technically bearish however when we  compare them to other currencies it's kind of flat   it's neither bullish nor bearish relative to other  currencies and finally we look at new zealand new   zealand benefited from the unemployment beats  last week and we also noted this major inverse   head and shoulders breakout to the upside and we  have now this bull flag setting up so i am bullish   on the new zealand looking further advances and  compared to other currencies going into next week   this market is also looking pretty good but  once again what we're looking at in gold in   the dollar index and also in these commodity  currencies with the currencies sitting right   at these major breakout levels is telling you that  a big move is likely to come one way or the other   whether the dollar is going to top and you're  going to see it come down and start to see   the commodity currencies rallying from here  with major trend reversals or if the markets are   going to fail here and the dollar rallies higher  you're going to see the start of big moves to the   downside in those commodity currencies so we're  right to the position where we could go either   way but gold based on what it's doing last week  is indicating we should probably be looking for   the next bigger move to come dollar down gold to  the upside and i imagine the commodity currencies   will follow gold to the upside as well if that  breakout in gold materializes continues next week   so let's have a look at the best currency pairs  going into next week the highest scoring strongest   versus weakest currency pairs first i want to just  look at crude oil as we usually do and you can see   crude oil is structured to the downside going into  this week this is going to have a bit of a soft   negative impact on the canadian dollar we saw the  canadian dollar was just scoring one out of four   so it's kind of bullish to neutral and this is  kind of reflective of the profit taking coming in   in fact to the canadian dollar we looked at from  that inverse head and shoulders target last week   i did state that although crude oil was trending  to the upside i wasn't particularly keen on it why   because the dollar was still bullish and whenever  you have a stronger dollar it's going to weigh   slightly on crude oil you can still see the dollar  rising and crude oil rising at the same time but   the best most explosive moves in crude oil tend  to come to the upside when you have a weak dollar   and to the downside when you have a strong dollar  and as we got a new high in the dxy last week we   saw crude oil coming down now it does look to me  as if this is just a corrective wave so going into   next week yes it does look like we could come down  to the 78.85 i do have a bearish bias on crude oil   but you don't have to trade corrective waves if  you have a ball flag like this and the market's   doing this the reward on short positions tends to  be capped why because corrective waves are choppy   so any moves to the downside you tend to catch a  bid and it starts to go back up then it comes down   goes back up etc so just because i have a bearish  buy some crude oil doesn't mean i have to go out   and short it if you are looking to trade it i  would prefer shorts but what i would really prefer   is for this to continue down and then wait for a  new reversal with momentum to break to the upside   and then oil long positions because i  do think we're going to come back up   to new highs in the coming weeks that would be  my preferred play on crude oil so for me patience   required if you really want to trade next week i  would be bearish on crude oil next is pound frank   now pound frank was a market i highlighted to the  downside last week and we took out both of these   targets and we took out both of these targets with  momentum i mean look how nice a sell-off this was   last week and in fact in last week's video this  was exactly what i highlighted i said to you guys   if we take out these lows here you're going to see  all of the bullish traders trading this inverse   head and shoulders cover their long positions  and we're going to see this break to the downside   in all probabilities with a momentum and we  could as a result start to see this very very   choppy consolidation pattern all the way back from  april may actually start to break out and it looks   would be suggestive as a failure to the downside  with this inverse head shoulders failing so if we   break the 1.2470 in this market we could actually  see some strong momentum coming in as all of these   traders who have been trading this to the  upside looking to buy into this inverse head and   shoulders they're going to have stop losses down  in this area some will be more aggressive down   below the right shoulder so you could see some  momentum here and others will be more conservative   in their stop-loss pro should be down below this  low here but either way if we break these levels   we're likely to see some momentum coming in going  into this week look at the momentum we have to the   downside after this previous breakout this is  really strong nice momentum this is indicative   of further lows why because momentum precedes  price so any continued correction in this area   will be viewed next week as an opportunity to  look for short positions down to the next care   of support at the 1.2227 i do really like pound  frank going into next week once again next is   pound new zealand because this is the second pound  pair that i like after pound frank highlighted in   last week's video as a good short to the downside  in last week's video the scorecard showed new   zealand as the strongest and the pound was one  of the weakest and what happened we had a really   nice pull back and this was your opportunity to go  short right into the target i mean we more or less   picked the bottom of the week last week with the  target set so great move last week in pound new   zealand going into this week i am looking for any  pullbacks in this area just like this move over   here will be viewed once again as an opportunity  to look for bearish setups down to the next kia   supports the downside the target set the 1.8867  i do really like pound new zealand as well pound   new zealand pound frank are my two favorite pairs  going into next week just bear in mind though they   are both pound pairs so if you go short on both  of them and the pound reverses for whatever reason   although it seems unlikely then you would be  stopped out on both of them so just bear that   in mind if you are looking to trade those markets  next would be pound dollar now pound dollar you   can see we have really nice momentum we took out  both targets to the downside in last week's video   coming into this week i don't like pound dollar  as much as pound frank and pound new zealand   but we do have very very very strong momentum and  again this is indicative of a potential correction   and then further declines to the downside and i  do think there's a good chance we come and take   out these lows over here and the 1.33 980. so  one way you could use pound dollar going into  

next week is as a synthetic hedge to gold you may  decide to go low on gold to the upside which is a   dollar a week set up and at the same time you may  decide to go short pound dollar and if you have   a two to one opportunity on one of the markets and  a two to one opportunity on the other markets and   let's say the dollar rallies and you make profit  on pound dollar of 2x and you lose your money on   gold of 1x you're still up 1x or if the reverse  happens and you see the dollar selling off and   the pound rallies higher and you lose your 1x on  the pound and you make your 2x or more on gold   that's how you can build a synthetic hedge so  something interesting going into next week but   if you are wary about what gold is showing and you  would rather avoid dollar strength trades because   of it or you would rather look at us dollar yen  then i would prefer pound frank and pound who's   even going into next week but it does look like  we're going to come down at least for one more   low here in pound dollar next is pound cad now  pound cad also took out the target set from last   week's video and again you see the momentum coming  into this market after this previous breakout so   any pullback in this market will be viewed  as an opportunity to look for bearish setups   down to the next kia supports the downside and  target set the 1.6692 with crude oil selling   off and this weighing on the canadian dollar  slightly pound cad is not as preferred next   week for me as pound frank pound new zealand  but it is certainly a possibility and it does   look like we're going to get further declines next  week and finally pound aussie i'm not a huge fan   of pound dolsy going into next week i have added  it into the video purely because you're looking at   a very weak pound versus a neutral aussie but the  aussie pairs because they're just completely flat   i don't think they're the best currency pairs to  be trading next week however any pullback in pound   aussie will simply be viewed as an opportunity to  look for bearish setups down to the next key of   support to the downside in the target set at the  1.8062 so now we've looked at the weakest currency   let's go and look at the strongest currency  going into next week which is the swiss franc   we've already looked at pound frank but the next  market i like is frank yen when you look at all   of the other yen pairs you will see that we're  getting these kind of waveform corrections we   looked at it last week and we're going to look at  it again in a bit but frank yen is holding its own   in its uptrend it hasn't even started to correct  so if we do start to see new zealand yen rising   caddium rising aussie am rising i would expect  to see frankie rising much faster the one thing   to note is i would not go too crazy on swiss franc  strong positions because the swiss national bank   wants to see the swiss franc devalued and you  always have that risk of them stepping in and   saying something and reversing the swiss franc so  i do like swiss franc positions i will be taking   them to the long side but don't take too much risk  on swiss franc long trades just in case the s b   come out and start to talk it down risk management  helps you in those situations you know if you're   going to be wrong you're going to be wrong small  or in just a couple of trades you're going to be   wrong on say six trades or eight trades so going  into next week i do like swiss franc japanese   yen to the upside any continued pullback in this  market will be viewed as an opportunity to look   for bullish reversals won't see that momentum  coming into the upside first and then i'm going   to be looking at initiating longs up towards  the next care resistance outside the target set   at the 125.89 next is euro franc eurofranc was  a market i highlighted in last week's video   and you can see we started the week over in this  area and we came down and we took out the target   almost to the point that was the low of the week  going into this week what i would like to see is   any pullback first i'd like to see this correcting  up we're starting to lack a little bit of momentum   but any pullback in this market would be viewed  as an opportunity to start to look for bearish   reversals in this market i'm going to be looking  if we start to get this momentum to the downside   at initiating shorts down to the 1.0507 and if  we break through here because we're fairly close   to it over here going to be looking down towards  the next care supports the downside the 1.0411 so  

i do favor pound weak setups but frank strength  setups are my second favorite plays going into   next week next is the euro pairs now the euro  is at minus one so it's bearish to neutral it's   not a super weak currency um so just bear that  in mind if you are trading euro pairs next week   euro shorts are my third preferred setups after  pound shorts and swiss franc long positions   EURUSD i put this market in every single week  because lots of people like EURUSD and they   want me to put it into the forecast you can see we  haven't really gone anywhere in EURUSD we're back   inside this range very similar to what we looked  at but conversely in the dxy now how i would   prefer to play this i am personally sure EURUSD  i do things it currently stands we could see euro   dollar coming down why because in the dxy itself  although XAUUSD is suggesting we may have a top   i explained to you guys already we  haven't topped that would come down below   this level in the dxy giving us that double top  that's the confirmed reversal so i am bearish   on euro dollar but what i'd like to see really if  i was going to get involved to the short side is   i would like to see patients first and i would  like to see the us dollar breaking higher   so continuing up failing to reverse lower and  continuing the trend up and what will happen is   when the dollar does that you will see euro  dollar will come down it will take out this   target and it will start to break below this  consolidation and when it breaks below this   consolidation starts to pull back that would be  my opportunity my preferred shorting opportunity   so i am bearish on euro dollar but because it's  in this range what i'd like to see and because   the dollar could be topping i'd like to see  no the dollar is not going to top maybe the   gold breakout fails we see the dollar rally  higher and eurodollar breaks down below the   bottom of this range and any pullback in this  area in my opinion would be the better shorting   opportunity rather than trying to short it into  the bottom of this near-term corrective pattern   so i am bearish on eurodollar as it currently  stands but i would personally like to see that   break higher in dollar index and a breakdown below  the bottom of the range before i looked short this   next is euro new zealand euro new zealand is  pulling back and you can see this has just   been correcting we are seeing a bit of strength  coming in however any pullback in this market   is viewed as a potential opportunity to look for  bearish reversals again look for that momentum to   the downside and any bearish reversals we start to  get this kind of bear flag pattern would be viewed   as the opportunity to look for short positions  down to the 1.6029 next is eurocad we're now   moving into the realm of a bullish to neutral  currency versus a bearish to neutral currency i've   put eurocad in here to show you something which is  that yes i am still looking for further declines   but look what happens when you have two neutral  currencies the market doesn't really go anywhere   so i'm quite happy for eurocad to come down maybe  from here and me not even be involved in this if   you can allocate capital say to pound franc or  you can allocate capital to pound new zealand or   maybe even eurofranc or a market which is more  likely to move so i'm not saying eurocad can't   come down what i am saying is based on the fact we  have two neutral currencies i don't think it's the   best place to allocate capital personally right  now i'd like to see this break out one way or the   other before i started to get involved in eurocad  once again so i think eurocad needs a little bit   of patience and the same for euro aussie as  well we're seeing your aussie pulling back   and what we have here is a flat currency in  the australian dollar and a bearish to neutral   currency in the australian dollar so you're aussie  off the table for me for the time being it does   look like we're going to come down and this would  most likely happen if we get that dxy reversal   because the australian dollar would likely  outperform the euro you would see a break lower   and then perhaps coming into next week this would  be the opportunity to look for shorts so i am   still bearish on this but i'd like to see a little  bit of strength coming into the aussie or a bit   more weakness coming into the euro before i looked  short this and we'll finish off the currencies   with the yen pairs again when you're looking at  the end you're looking at a bearish to neutral   currency so it's not super bearish so you just  need to bear that in mind be a little bit careful   the first one we're going to look at is us  dollar yen i do quite like us dollar yen   and it's for reasons discussed at the beginning of  the video which is that this market is structured   to the upside it does look to me like we're  going to come up and take out the 114.730   and us dollar to the upside against the  yen is something that can take place   with the us dollar selling off why because  as i said at the beginning of the video   you can see safe haven money coming out of the  end faster than it comes out of the dollar which   leads to the us dollar yen rising even when you  have reflationary scenarios going on like aussie   new zealand cad to the upside dollar to the  outside etc so if you are looking to trade   dollar to the upside next week but you're a  little bit wary of that potential reversal   us dollar yen is potentially one of the best  currencies you could look at reflecting that view   so any continued pullback and a reversal i'm going  to see momentum to the upside if we start to get   this momentum upside any pullback will be viewed  as an opportunity to look for further advances   up towards the 114.730 again you don't have to  trade any of the yen pairs or any of the dollar  

pairs if you don't want to next week if you  think there are better opportunities elsewhere   next is new zealand yen now nothing has really  changed in the new zealand yen or cadient aussie   yen analysis and this is that these markets are  all setting up for fourth waves and this is just   reflective or i should say they're setting up for  fifth waves in fourth waves and this is reflective   of what we looked at in the japanese yen and  of itself it's in looks to be a fourth wave   and it's going to be selling off for a fifth wave  to the downside so no change in the analysis on   these gen pairs here we're just correcting for  this fourth wave very often fourth waves reversal   they tend to reverse shallow fourth waves  at the 0.382 fibonaccis which is right here   so we are getting quite close to this especially  if we're going to pull back a bit more in the end   as i said this is a market i'm looking for  further advances in but it may take a couple   of weeks as we continue to correct if we come  down to this area this is when you can start   to look for those momentum moves to the upside  and if you get that if you start to correct into   these levels and then you rally to the upside this  is your sign to start to look for bullish setups   up towards the next care of resistance  the upside and target set at the 82.68   cad yen also in a fourth wave by the looks of  it and any pullback in this area you can see   we're right down near the lows so we're still  correcting but any continued pullback is viewed   as an opportunity to start to look for bullish  breakouts at some point in the next week or two   and if we start to break higher we're going to be  looking up towards the next q resistance outside   the target set at the 93.21 and finally aussie yen  now the aussie is pretty flat going into this week   but if whatever reason we catch a bid in the  aussie going into next week again this is going   to be a setup where i'm going to start to look for  bullish reversals and again what i want to see is   really nice momentum breaks to the upside a nice  ball flag and i'm going to be looking up towards   the next key resistance the upside the target  sets first of all the previous high and then on   to the 87.19 and finishing off with stocks gold  silver and bitcoin for those of you who follow  

the weekly forecast you will know that once we  started to break out this inverse and shoulders   i even tweeted out that this was the bottom of  stocks and we've had a really nice rally this was   the beginning of a new trend to the upside and we  have seen really nice up moves in the stock market   i did note last week that with the work that i  go through and the things that i look at it does   as of last week i did see warning signs flashing  that we could be doing near-term correction in the   stock market and i said to you last week that we  could come up take out the targets and that would   probably be the end of this recent rally we really  finished quite near the highs so we didn't start   to reverse last week but once again guys going  into this week i am seeing warning signs flashing   and it's telling me still to treat this as  a profit-taking opportunity that we may get   some more upside but upside is limited right  now compared to the potential downside so what   does this mean well we took out both targets last  week i am still bullish overall on stocks but what   i would like to see first is i would like to see  the market starting to correct and once the market   started to correct then i will be interested  in looking further advances up to the 4749.90   and this is not just on the spx this is on all the  stock indices that we're going to be looking at   so to summarize for you to make it clear i  do believe that these are levels at which we   should be looking to book some profits and  i have booked some profits on stocks myself   and also if you're running a long short portfolio  this would be an ideal time to start looking for   some of those short setups in stocks not in  the indices i'm not saying short the indices   that's not what i'm saying i'm saying looking for  stocks which are good short opportunities within   the indices and then you can use those as a hedge  as part of a long short portfolio so if the index   does start to correct and come down say three four  percent and you start to see your long positions   turning in the opposite direction you're going  to make money on your short stock positions   within that index because you've hedged it out  if you're not at that level yet and you're not   hedging out or building portfolios you're quite  new to trading i would suggest if you're looking   to trade the index or the indices themselves  not buying at this level waiting for the   correction because as i said i think the upside  is limited here compared to the downside near term   next is the nasdaq you can see the nasdaq also  took out the targets to the upside last week   so a really nice rally in the nasdaq and this was  back when i highlighted for you this inverse head   and shoulders reversal the start of a new trend  to the upside i am looking further advanced in   the nasdaq overall but again i view this as  being a potential profit taking area i think   the risk of a correction is greater so if you are  just trading the indices on their own i wouldn't   look to be buying it at this level i would wait  for the pullback and then any pullback would be   the opportunity to start to once again look for  bullish breakouts into the 16 711 74. again if   you're more advanced in your building portfolios  this would be profit taking and a chance to look   for some of those short positions to hedge out  any risk of a correction from this area next is   the dow jones ever since we started to reverse  down in this area in the dow jones and bottom   i have been bullish and this did kick start a  nice move to the upside and we took out the target   almost to the pit last week at 3 6 4 2 8 4  4 and that was pretty much the high of the   week in dow jones i'm still bullish on the  dow jones what i would like to see though is   a correction take place first as i said before  with the previous indices any pullback will be   viewed as an opportunity to start to look for  bullish setups once again up to the 36 957.52   next is the russell now last week in the russell  we smashed through the target set to the upside   and we started to break out of this multi-month  correction and i did note in videos past that   if we started to break up we could break with  momentum because of the length of this correction   very similar to what we looked at in pound franc  but just in the opposite direction we have had a   really nice rally to the upside what i would like  to see based on what's already been discussed is i   would like to see a pullback first it does look  like we could have a correction incoming in the   stock indices any pullback will be viewed though  as an opportunity to look for bullish setups   into the 2491.51 and last but not least we  have the nifty now the nifty is a market that  

previous videos we've been trading to the upside  and ever since we broke this inverse head and   shoulders it kick-started a really nice trend and  a couple of weeks ago i noted this was now bearish   doesn't mean again to go out short it just  simply means if you're long in the nifty   you can book some profits if you are looking  to be long only this would be a time to wait   um and really look for a new reversal to the  upside just as we reversed up here just as we   reversed higher over here i would really like to  see the nifty breaking higher pulling back maybe   we get an inverse head and shoulders like this  and then we start to break for the next move up   so as it currently stands you can see we went  nowhere last week and that tends to be the case   when you're in a correction so i would be patient  on the nifty and really i'd like to see this start   to reverse higher before i'm really interested  in the nifty once again if you like short stocks   i do have a near-term bearish outlook on the  nifty but i would like to see it reverse higher   personally first so we can get back to being  long on the nifty and finishing off with gold   silver and bitcoin and of course these are things  we really want to look at going into next week   i already touched on this at the beginning of the  video and if you've skipped to the end just have   a look at gold it might be worth going back to  the beginning of the individual currency analysis   when we look at the dollar and i discuss this  breakout in gold and how this can actually   impact the dxy going into next week and may even  be signaling a top in the dxy but in gold itself   as we discussed it does look like we have  not just this inverse head and shoulders but in the right shoulder from the bottom of  the right shoulder it looks like we have one two   three four five choppy fifth wave followed by a  failure to make a new low which is the second wave   and then a break higher with momentum so not just  a break high but a break high with momentum and a   very very strong close tells me this could be  the start of a third wave just as we looked at   in some of those other markets where we saw  in the nifty for example we had that really   nice inverse head and shoulders and then that kick  started the major trend to the upside in the nifty   so this is very important because even if this  breakout to the upside fails and we start to   get the dollar index rally in i do think these  kind of trading situations here namely where you   potentially have the start of a third wave they  provide some of the best risk reward opportunities   and even with the dxy as a plus one  rating which is kind of bullish to neutral   i personally think and i already have taken some  positions in XAUUSD and XAGUSD right at the end of   last week i think it's worth the risk of being  stopped out on a reversal to the downside in   XAUUSD for me personally to be involved in this  to the upside if this is going to kickstart a big   third wave again you guys are free to trade as you  wish i'm not telling you guys to trade XAUUSD i'm   just saying for me personally i really like this  set up and if this is going to be the start of a   bigger trend to the upside i'm personally prepared  to risk some capital a sensible amount of capital   for positions in XAUUSD and also XAGUSD  should also follow it so very simply put   going into next week i am bullish on XAUUSD  i do think that this could well be the start   of a third wave we drop down to the four hour  chart you can see this a little bit more clearly   one two three four five we even have the alternate  wave count you can see one shallow two three   deep four fifth and then you have the correction  and then you have to break with momentum look at   the momentum coming into here so when you pull  back in XAUUSD next week will be viewed as an   opportunity to start to look for bullish setups  i'm going to be looking up towards the next care   resistance the upside the target set the 1834.01  but just bear in mind this in and of itself could   see momentum as we break the 183401 why because  this is the confirmation of the major inverse   head and shoulders in gold so if this is the  start of the minor trend right here this is the   start of the major trend and i personally with  positions that i had from last week would like   to see this break the one eight three four zero  one not to book profits but instead see this just   as it's breaking here with momentum see this  break in here with momentum as well and that   would actually be the sign that this really is  the start of a major trend to the upside in gold   so gold is absolutely a market i'm keeping my eye  on next week next is silver now silver is also   starting to break to the upside you can see  we're forming this potential inverse head   and shoulders some people call this a cup with  a handle even because you've got this kind of   shallower correction here rather than coming  all the way down to the right shoulder or the   left shoulder in this case but the right shoulder  over here that would be more textbook either way   it doesn't really matter the whole point is the  psychology is here you've got people selling in   from these levels over here and these shorts  are failing to drive price down and as buyers   come in all these shorts are likely to cover  and this is going to drive price to new highs   and if we break this high over here this is the  start of a potential trend change to the upside   and a third wave in silver and again you've got a  near-term target here of the 25-31 but if this is   a one and this really is a two and we break here  with momentum i would question why we'd want to   put profit 25.31 this is the kind of major trend  reversal where you would want to hold on to this   for as long as possible again i'm not telling you  guys how to trade it i'm just telling you how i   will be looking at playing this setup and the fact  that i'm seeing this more as a bigger fundamental   position trade if we start to break higher  than a short-term near-term trading opportunity   so i do really like gold and silver coming  into next week and again i've highlighted   the key levels here for you that if we start  to break this high for example with momentum   that is indicative of a major trend change to the  upside and if we pair these with what we're seeing   in the dx y if we start to top out in the dxy that  is going to send gold and silver higher so these   major breakouts in gold and silver to the upside  are in my opinion definitely something we want to   be keeping an eye on next week and last but not  least we have bitcoin bitcoin has been trending   to the upside we pulled back i did highlight in  previous videos the 57 867 for you we bounced   from this level and it looks like we're actually  now forming this inverse head shoulders which we   confirmed above this level here the fact that we  have yet to come and take out the right shoulder   tells me this head and shoulders is  still intact and what's happening here is   we're just coming back by the looks of it and  testing this kind of trend line i'm not big on   trend line so i'm going to take this off because i  was just putting this on here to show you because   you can see already look you're coming to break  down this trend line some people may even view   that as a trendline breakout i wouldn't personally  and i would still look to be bullish on this   you can see here this is the inverse head and  shoulders break but again you don't really need   this on here so i am still bullish on bitcoin and  especially if we start to see the dxy topping out   and we are going to get major breaks to the upside  in gold and silver if we get those trend reversals   expect to see bitcoin coming up to the 67 516 and  potentially even higher so i am still bullish on   bitcoin even though we've been correcting i view  this correction as potentially now coming to an   end with this inverse head and shoulders confirmed  above here so that is it for me for this week guys   a lot we unpacked in today's video and i hope it  wasn't too long for you as always if you did enjoy   today's video please let me know by liking sharing  and subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend  and i want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2021-11-07 19:21

Other news