Weekly Forex Forecast (08/08/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

hey traders john fortune here with this week's  weekly forex forecast hope you're having a   fantastic weekend as usual last week was a bit of  a slow week because we had non-farm payrolls week   the first week of the month and the markets  you can see here with the dxy just kind of   consolidated there weren't too many opportunities  last week and that's why in these videos i always   say during non-farm payrolls week it's a good idea  to take slightly less trades but the good news is   with that week out of the way it does set a stage  for the rest of the month and i do think there are   some really good opportunities coming up now next  week okay so quick look at the economic calendar   and last week's data is very important out of  the us because it's going to give you an idea of   what the federal reserve are going to do  next and how it's going to affect the dollar   the first thing to notice and we're  going to look at the us specifically just   first is the manufacturing pmis and also the  services pmi and the manufacturing pmi came out   better than expected but not as good as last time  so this is kind of slightly a good result it's   still above 50. it's not fantastic but it's not  bad it's not in recessionary territory below 50.   and we also had the services pmi that came out  last week and this actually beat expectations and   it beat what it was previously in the previous  month from 55.3 up to 56.7 so that's actually a   pretty decent reading again not fantastic it's  not up in the high 50s or early 60s but it is   actually not too bad and especially when  you consider the services sector of the us   is the largest sector in the u.s so that's the  first piece of the puzzle to consider because yes   the federal reserve does tend to work on lagging  indicators such as cpi and also unemployment but   the federal reserve are not stupid they understand  and are aware of the ism reports it actually gives   the fed a little bit more of a green light to get  more aggressive and more hawkish and don't forget   this is a federal reserve that have recently  said they're going to be data dependent so   that's the first piece of the puzzle to consider  and suggesting that the federal reserve are going   to be more aggressive more hawkish which of course  is bullish for the dollar the second piece is the   jobs data that came out on friday now we had a big  upside surprise 528 000 jobs added and you could   look at this and say well this is a sign that the  us economy is doing very well but if you dig a bit   deeper and as our american friends would like  to say if you look under the hood you will see   that the labor force participation rate has been  falling since march now what this tells you is   the labor force participation rate is the  number of people in the u.s who are actively   seeking work or in work and the number of people  who actively seek in work or in work is decreasing   and so if you have the paul or the labor  force decreasing the number of people actively   searching or in work decreasing but you have  more jobs added well how does this make sense   well what this is suggesting and what this means  is that the declining pool of people looking for   work or in work are actually taking more and  more jobs and this of course is to offset the   wealth destruction brought about by the recent  inflation so when you look a bit deeper this is   not what you would expect to see in a healthy  economy people or less and less people taking   more jobs in order to offset high levels of  inflation is not a healthy thing for an economy   but if you look at the headline number of five to  eight this is the third piece of significant data   last week which is going to give the federal  reserve a green light to be more hawkish more   aggressive with their monetary policy and when  you combine everything we've just discussed   it's suggesting that the fed is actually  going to get more aggressive more hawkish   into actually not a very healthy economy and that  greatly increases the risk of the federal reserve   breaking something and the final things to note  are the rays of interest rates out of australia   nothing out of the ordinary what was significant  last week was out of the uk there was a raising   of interest rates but the bank of england stated  that they see a recession coming in the fourth   quarter of this year to last five consecutive  quarters well the bank of england forecasting   is a recession essentially on a par with 2008  the great financial crisis why because that also   lasted five consecutive quarters in the uk and  they are forecasting that in conjunction with 13   inflation so a real serious case of stagflation  being projected by the bank of england in the   uk and this is going to put downward pressure on  the pound and last but not least is the employment   data out of canada it wasn't fantastic and we also  had the iv pmi going into recessionary territory   at 49.6 and both of these pieces of data out  of canada actually helped reduce the score   in the one month forward looking scorecards and  cad shorts are going to be something i'm going   to be looking at next week and the only thing  to note this week is the cpi data coming out   of the us very important on wednesday there's a  good chance that the dollar pairs correct or do   nothing into wednesday and then you start to get  the opportunities from wednesday onwards so we're   going to look at the dollar pairs but just bear  this in mind likely going to get opportunities   if they do arise from wednesday onwards okay  so let's have a look at scorecards then for   the coming week and you can see there was a lot  going on last week the scores did really change up   and again like i said just sets the stage for the  next few weeks the main thing we're looking for   here on a one month forward-looking probability  basis is not just the strongest versus the weakest   but primarily the currencies in the strong  section of the scorecards getting stronger   and weaker currencies on a one-month  forward-looking basis getting weaker so we do have   the us dollar increase in its score in a nominal  sense you could say it's not especially bullish   because this is just bullish to neutral this is  bullish this is strong bullish bias and this is   getting to the point where it's overbought  you should start to look at booking profits   and so the dollar is kind of bullish to neutral  and when we look at the technicals this does   suggest we may be coming towards the end of the  recent correction but it's not very bullish as of   yet so we are going to be looking at dollar long  plays next week but they will be from wednesday   onwards after the cpi data the euro is weak but  it's slightly strengthening so not a fantastic   signal the pound is weak and it's strengthening  not a fantastic signal the swiss franc is strong   but it's weakening not a fantastic signal the jpy  is strong and it is getting stronger so absolutely   we're going to be focusing on jpy long positions  this was actually a currency we were looking   at being long in last week's video which worked  really well at the beginning of the week and then   it snapped back because we had such a strong rally  in the japanese yen and the japanese yen you can   see here last week was doing this so japanese  yen long positions and this is the first time   this year that the japanese yen has actually been  on the left-hand side of the scorecards here so   jpy long positions i am going to be interested  in the canadian dollar is weak and although it's   only bearish to neutral it is actually getting  weaker so cad shorts absolutely i'm going to be   focusing on the australian dollar is still kind  of bullish to neutral and not really moving so   not really a big fan of the aussie next week and  the new zealand dollar which is fantastic is yes   bearish to neutral but it is coming also down here  so really this tells me that next week my main   trading plan is going to be the new zealand dollar  to the short side versus the swiss franc so new   zealand frank to the downside i'm also going  to be looking at cad frank to the downside   going to be looking at euro and pound frank to the  downside because although they're strengthening a   little bit they are actually still bearish on  a one-month forward-looking basis and i'm also   going to be interested in the new zealand  yen to the downside cad yen to the downside   going to be looking also at pound and euro yen to  the downside and the final thing i'm going to be   looking at next week will be the new zealand  dollar the canadian dollar the euro and the   pound all shorts against the us dollar but from  wednesday onwards okay so let's have a quick look   at the individual currencies before moving on to  the markets which form my trading plan next week   the dxy is still in an overall uptrend and i  highlighted last week it looks like we had a rally   a shallow correction in form almost a bit like a  wedge and then we had another rally and now we've   got a deep correction so you've got the law of  alternation shallow correction deep correction   very often wave two is deep and then wave four is  shallow but in this case we have a deep correction   here and it does look like this correction is  coming towards an end and we are set for new   highs in the dxy if we drop down to the four hour  chart you can see here that we do have the makings   of an inverse head and shoulders and we're right  at the breakout level this always happens going   into very big pieces of data and we have the  cpi data so i am looking for other advances   but don't be surprised if it just corrects and  then breaks through on cpi and sets up like this   into new highs so bear that in mind the dxy and  the dxy pairs may just correct into wednesday's   cpi data and do nothing and then you start to get  the move afterwards if the cpi data comes out and   the dxy sells off hard and we come down and make  new lows i'm not going to be looking at trading   the dxy that will come out of my trading plan  and we'll reassess it next saturday with updated   scores next is the euro now look at the euro the  euro really just hasn't gone anywhere one two   three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven  twelve thirty really for two to three trading   weeks this has just corrected this is not going  to go on forever we are set for the next move in   the euro and in all likelihood that's going to be  to the downside i don't usually drop down on these   markets the individual currencies but i'm dropping  down here just to show you we kind of have the   reverse set up in the euro it does also look like  we are forming a head and shoulders in this case   and if we correct and then break through here  this is the opportunity to start to look for   shorts once again in the euro if you get involved  perhaps before wednesday this just continues to   correct but if you get involved anywhere up  in this area you're on the risk of it just   continuing to chop so look for the breakout of the  head and shoulders below the 1.01550 and that is  

the opportunity to look for further shorts in the  euro and therefore euro pairs down to 0.99610 if   cpi comes out hot on wednesday expect to see the  us dollar rally next is the pound we've started to   break out of this correction now you can see we do  have some nice momentum here in this daily candle   so i do think we're probably going to pull back  and start the decline now next week in the pound   and this is suggestive as well of the next up  leg in the dollar starting next week so i am   interested in pound shorts next is the swiss franc  the swiss franc as i've noted in previous videos   is not super bullish but it is relative to the  other currencies bullish and i am interested in   frank long positions this week i wouldn't be  surprised to see this come up and take out   the 1.06250 because the swiss franc is bullish  but getting slightly weaker in the scorecards   i am not prioritizing them i actually prefer  the yen pairs as my number one play next week   and then after the end pairs i think the swiss  franc pairs are the second best play next is   japanese yen we are still in an overall downtrend  but we may be coming back to test the major   breakout level over here of the 0.007945 so i am  bullish on the japanese yen going into this week i   am looking further advances to the upside the next  target is a 0.007811 and last week we had such an   explosive move in the first two days of the week  that the market had to mean revert had to correct   but as it currently stands i'm just simply viewing  this as i said as a mean reversion just basically   the yen got too extended at the beginning of last  week and it had to come back and reset itself and   i am looking further advances this week next  is the cad the cad gap down you can see here   at the end of the week and we had a really nice  breakout this is actually on lower time frame   a head and shoulders breakout as well and this  is right at previous resistance highlighted and   i do think now we're seeing some momentum here  and let me just drop down to show you this on   a four-hour chart you can see the breakout with  momentum any pullback in this area in the canadian   dollar is absolutely a high probability trading  opportunity for further declines for the downside   and cad shorts outside of new zealand shorts are  one of my favorite plays next week next is the   aussie it's also technically starting to break  down and i am looking potentially for further   declines but in the one month forward looking  scores it is actually slightly better than a lot   of the other currencies at plus one and so i'm not  really interested in being along the aussie but   i'm also not really interested in being sure the  aussie is off the table for me for the time being   and finally the new zealand dollar is setting up  as a good short going into this week technically   we are starting to break down and due to data  which came out last week input into the scorecards   the new zealand dollar actually went from slightly  bullish too bearish and it had a net change of -2   which was actually the biggest net change of all  the currencies last week so that is why that is   my favorite short heading to this week followed  by the cad and new zealand shorts are absolutely   something i'm going to be paying attention to  next week okay so let's have a look at the markets   themselves heading into next week last week crude  oil was a great short in a week where the markets   didn't really move too much the some of the  commodities especially crude oil was a great short   and this really made the week last week we came  down and on the third i actually tweeted out that   crude oil looked set to sell off fairly hard and  we did sell off over seven percent since i tweeted   that out and we went straight to the target from  there going into this week i am looking for the   declines in crude oil any pullback in this market  and i'd like to see it come away from the target   first but any pullback is simply viewed as another  opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to   the 87.73 i do really like crude oil heading into  next week so the first currency pair we're going   to look at is new zealand yen this market sold off  really hard at the beginning of last week took out   the target and bounced and that was as i said it  came down too hard and this was an over extension   and basically had to mean revert but the target  in new zealand gem was pretty much the low for   the week as we've already started to correct in  this market i'm now looking for any reversal or   any break to the downside that is going to be the  opportunity to start to look for shorts once again   first of all down to the previous lows that can  be your first more conservative target but over   the next couple of weeks i am looking for further  declines into the 80.15 next is kadyan last week  

we were looking for yen strength plays so that  would be caddying to the downside for example and   we did have a really strong sell-off but it all  happened within the first two days and then we   snap back for the rest of the week i am now  looking because we've had this correction i   am now looking for further declines in cad yen any  break to the downside is viewed as an opportunity   to look for shorts first of all down to the  previous lows once again and then on to the 100.19   those are my two top pairs heading into next  week which i think offer us the best chance   to make money next week in forex euro yen another  market which took out the target bounced last week   i am just treating this as a correction and i am  looking for the declines the fact this corrected   very sharp is actually great news because it  does mean that when this starts to break lower   this does have a very nice distance down to  the previous lows and then on to the 132.77   so not highlighted in gold because i do prefer  the two commodity currencies here better or more   versus the n however don't sleep on euro yen and  pound you into the downside because i think these   markets also decline next is pound yen we did come  and take out the target before bouncing last week   we already started to sell off quite hard last  week from the bank of england meeting because   of what we discussed at the beginning of the  video which is those five consecutive quarters   of forecasted recession which is going to put  downward pressure on the pound and we snap back   a lot of this down move but as it currently stands  i'm just viewing this now as an opportunity to   start to look for bearish reversals in this market  next week and if we start to break down i'm going   to look further declines down towards the previous  lows and then on to the 158.07 so i do really like  

the yen pairs next week next is new zealand frank  this is my third favorite pair heading into next   week we have been looking further declines but you  can see this kind of just chopped around and again   non-farm payrolls week didn't do much for us last  week i am still looking for the declines and you   can see this setting up a head and shoulders  which is a head and shoulders in a downtrend   and in a correction so this is exactly where  you want to see head and shoulders reversals   so any pullback next week is simply an opportunity  to look for bearish setups down towards the next   care of support to the downside 0.5904 next is cad  frank any continued pullback in this market next   week is simply viewed as an opportunity once again  to look for bearish reversals bearish breakouts   i'm going to be looking at initiating shorts down  towards the next key of support to the downside   0.7364 and if we can break through here i'd  like to see if we can break through here down   towards zero point seven three one hundred  so new zealand gen cad yen new zealand franc   and cad frank are my four top markets that i'm  going to be focused on next week next is eurofrank   this is a market been shorting to the downside  and last week we just actually had an inside week   on non-farm payrolls week and i'm just viewing  this merely as a correction further decline   so again not highlighted in gold just because i  wanted to narrow down the top four but don't sleep   on euro frank and pound front because again i  think just like these two here euro yen and pound   yen we're going to see declines in these markets  so any continued correction is simply viewed as   an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts down  towards the zero point nine six five three and the   final frank pair here is pound frank and pound  frank this chart looks very squash because i've   had to zoom out a little bit to show you the next  level because there is really just a gap between   here because the last time the market traversed  these levels there was a crash in the pound   versus the frank so there's nothing but air below  the 1.1496 and as i've said in previous videos   although we've just been correcting if it does  break this level it could come down fairly quickly   so as you can currently see we've started to break  out in pound frank of this previous correction   so any continued pullback in this area is simply  viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts   into the 1.1496 and if we get down to here  i will be keeping my eye on to see if i can  

trail this to get a break with momentum through  the 1.1496 and down towards the 1.1119 it's not   going to come down to here next week but i would  at least like to start to see some break with   momentum below this level and then in subsequent  weeks we could be coming down to the 1.11 190.   and finally the dollar pair starting with new  zealand dollar in blue here the dollar pairs   just to remind you we have the cpi data we're  also breaking out of a head and shoulders as you   can see here in new zealand so look for a break  with momentum down here perhaps on the cpi data   itself and then any pullback is the opportunity to  look for shorts into 0.6015 next is us dollar cad   already broken out of an inverse head and  shoulders with momentum treating this as   an opportunity for any pullback in this area  to look for bullish reversals i'm going to be   looking up towards the 1.3203 euro dollar again  just reflecting what we already looked at in the  

euro index essentially but we have this head and  shoulders reversal and i would like to see it   come and break this level here once it breaks that  look for a break with momentum and then you should   start to see the market flagging and that will  be your opportunity to look for shorts into the   0.9927 and the final forex pair here is pound  dollar we've had a deep correction reflecting   what we looked at in the dxy index itself and  that's fantastic because now we're starting to   break out we have a lot of distance down towards  not just the previous low but the next target   and so any pullback next week is simply viewed  as an opportunity to look for further declines   in this market down towards the 1.1715  and just think about this fundamentally   we have a federal reserve in the us which is  getting hawkish which is data dependent and the   data which is coming out is actually quite good so  they're more likely to get even more hawkish and   compare that with the central banks who generally  speaking are also data dependent in canada for   example who are getting poor data in the uk  who are going to be seeing poor data so there   is really a fundamental discrepancy now between  how the central bank of the us is likely to act   going forwards either likely to get more hawkish  versus other central banks who are likely to be   less hawkish as they see negative data coming  in okay so wrapping up the video then with gold   silver and bitcoin starting with the gold silver  ratio the gold silver ratio is neither here nor   there really so not a huge bias for silver or  gold one way or the other it does look like   because we have momentum this does look like it's  a flag and i do think we could actually come down   maybe test the lows before heading up so maybe  a slightly bearish bias on gold versus silver   but i don't have a very strong bias in terms of  gold or silver next is gold i've zoomed out here   i'll zoom in a little bit more in a second but  you can see we have tested the previous low and   in last week's video we're not going to go through  the same stuff again but in stocks and everything   else i did discuss the idea of some risk on coming  into the markets which was likely to see gold   silver bitcoin testing the previous lows and then  we start to roll over as the dollar corrects and   then the dollar rallies higher we start to see  gold coming down silver coming down bitcoin coming   down and also stocks coming down but i did earmark  the 1850 in the vix as the key level to start to   watch for stocks to roll over which we have not  got to just yet so if you want to know more about   how i think risk on could turn into risk off you  can go and watch last week's video in terms of   gold we're sitting right at the underside but the  uptrend or the near term correction this is just   this is an uptrend but it's a correction this is  the the overall trend this is the corrective trend   i would like to see either a head and shoulders  perhaps set up like this or you could treat this   as somewhat not really because we started to break  a little bit higher over here either way look for   the market to come break down with momentum  once you see momentum coming in that's your   sign you can start to look for any pullbacks and  shorts down to the previous lows and then on to   the 1633.70 not highlighted as one of the best  because we're still kind of correcting the dollar   has not yet really reversed either and we're  only bullish to neutral as it currently stands in   scorecards next is silver also tested and we  didn't even close above the previous low in   the overall downtrend which again we looked at  in last week's video i said look for a test of   these for it start to roll over we have started  to roll over perhaps it comes back up before cpi   and then look for this to break down again with  momentum any pullback in this market therefore   is simply an opportunity to look further declines  down to the previous lows and then on to the 17.63   and last but not least we have bitcoin  bitcoin couldn't even manage to come back   and test the previous low in the overall  downtrend as you can see here that actually   shows significant weakness let's say relative to  even gold and silver so heading into this week i   am still looking further declines in bitcoin but  at the moment it's still a bit corrective what   i'd like to see is perhaps a little bit more of  a correction and then a breakdown with momentum   notice how this is momentum this  is momentum this is momentum   this is corrective this is corrective so i'd  like to see this breaking down with momentum   and then get corrective and that would be your  sign start to look for shorts down to the 16.492 so that is it from me for this week guys as  always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next week   the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-08-08 19:02

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