Weekly Forex Forecast (07/11/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
foreign [Music] ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having a great weekend last week was a very tricky week we had fomc and non-farm payrolls and we started the week in the dxy right here and as you can see we just moved sideways into fomc we rallied higher on fomc and then we did nothing into non-farm payrolls and then we sold off on non-farm payrolls finishing the week basically where we started so it was one big wild goose chase in the dxy and in markets last week okay so quick look at the economic calendar and we had a lot going on last week we had the interest rate decision out of Australia where they raised rates we also had the ism data coming out of the us as well and we didn't get a recessionary reading which is under 50. so for the time being it is still projecting growth in the US 12 months out and if we come down further you can see the big one last week was fomc now we did get the rape rise and what happened last week was we had additional statements which were dovish in the rate statement released before the press conference essentially saying they're going to take into account the lagging effects and the cumulative effects of their rate hikes and this was seen as being dovish and the market actually started to Rally but then Powell came out and stated that the terminal rate I.E the rate at which interest rates are going to have to go before they Peak is likely to be higher than previously anticipated and that was when we saw stocks dumping and we saw the dollar rallying after the frmc press conference now what happened was as we just looked at we rallied into non-farm payrolls and on non-farm payrolls we had a beat on the actual number itself however it was the unemployment rate which went from 3.5 to 3.7 and when you look at the participation rate because this was lower this was showing that this was actually a sign of layoffs in the jobs Market as opposed to more people entering the workforce and looking for employment who hadn't been before and that was why we got the sell-off in the dollar towards the end of the week on the non-farm payrolls data even though we had the actual number itself coming out fairly strong and better than expected and if we jump ahead to the coming week you can see there isn't too much in the economic calendar we need to pay attention to apart from two important pieces of data or one of them is actually an event and that is on Tuesday we have the Congressional elections out of the US but I think more importantly next week it is the CPI data since it's this inflationary regime that the FED are fighting and this is really what's dictating the dollar in a lot of the market so keep an eye out on Thursday I do expect markets to get volatile and I'm going to go through in today's video what I think we're going to see into that CPI event and I don't think CPI is going to be coming down significantly anytime soon and you may well find that investors and Traders are disappointed by this report on Thursday okay so let's have a look at the scores for the coming week and you can see in the currency Majors here we do not have a single currency major and I can't remember the last time this happened you don't have a single currency scoring two or minus two and the scorecards have been warning us for a number of weeks be careful Market opportunities are likely to dry up markets are going to become corrective and choppy and is exactly what we've seen take the dxy last week which went up went down and basically finished the week where it started this is what the scorecards were projecting this kind of choppiness before for last week even started and in previous videos we've been looking at the fact that market opportunities are drying up and the dxy especially has been lacking Direction so going into this week you should still be looking to reduce your risk not going too crazy because we're not out of this range-bound corrective condition in the markets as it currently stands however there are still some opportunities I'll be looking at and they will be primarily based on the net changes this week so I am interested and you can see US dollar and Euro both on the same side of the scorecards telling us again Mark it's a choppy markets are range bound what I'd like to see this week is I am going to be looking at the Australian Dollar to the downside as one of the best shorts I'm not looking at the JPY because this was -3 and it's now minus two so it's actually moving this way in the scorecards and that is a sign when we have a net change here so we have a weak currency getting stronger it's assigned to book profits cover shorts if you're involved in those because we may see some near-term strength in the Japanese Yen it's not a Buy Signal because you can get involved with that and it can fly in your face because it's still on the native side of the scorecards but it is telling us to cover shorts so that really leaves the Australian dollar as the next short I'm also interested in pound shorts and we can also look at Frank shorts and to the long side I'm primarily interested in the cad and the New Zealand dollar but we're also going to be looking at the US dollar because what I think we're going to see this week is essentially what we were talking about last week we are finally going to get that run down in the dollar I believe heading into CPI and then a reversal and as the dollar sells off I expect the commodity currencies like the New Zealand and the cad to outperform especially some of these other markets and then once the dollar starts to Rally from the lows if that's what we're going to get you can actually look at a continuation some of those dollar pairs so let's go and have a look at the dxy and I'll explain exactly how I think this could play out in CPI okay so let's have a look at the individual currencies before moving on to the markets themselves starting with the dxy now in last week's video we started the week right here and I highlighted the fact I believe that the XY was going to come down to the 109.48 and then where we're going to see a rally to new highs of the 111 4.99 over the course of this month now last week what happened was we just moved sideways then we got the rally on fomc as I said earlier they're non-farm payrolls we sold off and we finished the week right where we started the week that's why I say last week was one big wild goose chase because basically it looked like we were going to go into the highs without taking out the 109 and then with the big sell-off it now looks like we are actually going to come back to the 109 48 before heading a bit higher so in terms of the dxy next week I am looking for potentially any pullback and a sell-off into the 109.48 and I believe if we are going to get a disappointing CPI reading on
Thursday which is likely going to see let's say a rally in the dollar if we get that it's just a scenario which I see potentially playing out next week then I would be looking for myself into the 109.480 and if that's the case we could see a potential reversal on CPI and then perhaps the following week that is when we looking at further advancing the dxy so either way whether we get a sell-off into the 109.48 before the CPI or if we just correct into CPI and then get a sell-off I do think based on this failure on non-farm payrolls we are now coming back to the 109.48 as I
highlighted last week and essentially what we were looking at last week is still in play especially as nothing actually happened we just went up down finished the week where we started last week next is the Euro now as the dxy likely comes down to the 109.48 I do think the euro is going to come up to the 1.01310 and this is the move I'm looking at next week in the Euro but I've left this on here look I've got one to the upside and to the downside to remind you that we are still in a bear Market in the euro look at this this is corrective this is corrective and once we trade into these highs especially if we trade into these highs and then we get a hotter than expected CPI reading on Thursday you're probably going to see this start to roll over to the downside so so be very careful remember we are in an overall downtrend in the Euro and in the dxy we're probably going to make higher Highs at some point but I do think we get this initial push up to the 1.01310 next week as the dxy sells off into the 109.48. next is the pound now this was the start of the flash crash
in the pound very often when you get these flash crashes the market pulls all the way back and retests the highs so I am looking for the pound to come up to this area here this High specifically and this is also confirmation that we are probably coming down to the 109.48 in the dxy and if we are going to Rally in the dxy we probably still have one more push to the downside first possibly in CPI so as you can see my Outlook hasn't actually changed from last week because we just got taken for a ride basically with the non-farm payrolls fomc events so I am looking for the pound to come up retest the highs over here potentially into CPI and this is where we could start to look for a potential reversal back down to the lows especially if we get a hotter than expected CPI reading on Thursday next is the Swiss franc now the Swiss franc is a little less clear you can see we have gone absolutely nowhere since the start of October look at this look how choppy this is this is a market yes we had a big rally here but we also had a big engulfing day here which petered out so we are still over on a downtrend but we're at the lows so this is really not something where you can take strong bites one way or the other I am potentially interested in some Frank short positions based on the scorecards but as you can see they're not highlighted in Gold because they are counter Trend and I do expect as I said in previous videos the New Zealand the Aussie to start to roll over to the downside against the Swiss franc once again once we start to see a bit more risk off coming into the market so stocks down dollar higher Etc next is the yen in an overall downtrend technically but you can see we also have gone nowhere over the last five to ten days so it does look like we may be getting a deep correction based on the scorecards going from -3 to minus two I wouldn't want to be long though as I said because at any point these markets can reverse and trade lower so it is really just to cover your shorts signal from the scorecards and as a result I'm just going to stay out of the end trades this week next is the cad now we are starting to push a bit higher in WTI and also we have a big rally in the Canadian dollar on Friday we've actually just broken confirmed and inverse Head and Shoulders here in the daily and the target for this inverse Head and Shoulders would probably take us right back roughly into this area of the previous lows so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Canadian dollar doing this especially as the dxy sells off a little bit into the 109.48 area and as a result I am looking for Canadian dollar long plays as one of the better setups next week although I stress all markets corrective and none of the them are absolutely outright fantastic plays but I do favor cadlongs on balance Australian dollar we also have somewhat of an inverse Head and Shoulders but again this is not something we should be looking at buying in a big way because it's still overall in a downtrend you can see here we're making lower lows and lower highs so I still view this as corrective even if we break the high over here I do think we get some near-term strength in the Aussie in again perhaps this brings us back to the previous low and so I do think we could see a little bit of Aussie strength if the dxy sells off but I would still favor it on the short side against the Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar next week and last but not least we have the New Zealand dollar somewhat of a sloppy double bottom not a fantastic one but we have started to bounce here from the lows and again it looks like we're probably going to come back and retest this and as the dxy sells into the 109.48 I would be expecting some near-term strength in the New Zealand dollar again potentially testing the lows over here and then if we get that hot CPI reading that could kick start the next leg down in this oval downtrend because you can see the market is still trending down so this should still be viewed as a correction as it currently stands okay so let's look at the markets themselves starting with crude oil now crude oil was highlighted as a potential Long play in last week's video we did break up above the previous higher here with some nice momentum So for anybody not involved from last week any pullback before taking out the high especially if we come down test here and kind of stair step this is an opportunity once again to look for bullish setups into the 9375 and if we take this out first and then pull back I'm going to be looking up towards Target two at the 98.18 just bear in mind this is not an outright very bullish chart it is as it currently stands bullish to neutral next is euro dollar now normally I start with the best setups which are highlighted here in Gold but this week because of what we discussed in the dxy I am going to do a quick run through of how I think that reflects in the dollar pairs in the Euro I am looking for any potential pullback remember though this is counter Trend and the risk the overall risk is for a bigger sell-off especially on a hotter CPI data but any pullback I am going to be looking further advances into that CPI on Thursday up to the 1.0091 next is Aussie dollar again I'm
just viewing this as a big correction and I do think we come up and retest the 0.65490 which is this previous high so any pullback in Aussie dollar I am going to be looking for this rally into the CPI data and if we take out this High over here and we go into that Thursday essentially at this level keep an eye out for a potential reversal because if we get the hotter CPI I would then start to look for this to basically be a failed inverse head and shoulders and that's where we see the next leg down in Aussie dollar next is US dollar card again I've left this Target on here to show you the overall trend is to the upside and we should at some point expect the 1.3970 to be taken out but if you come have a look at us dollar CAD on the four hours we had a big big sell-off here not very often do these markets just reverse like that so I am looking for a potential correction here in US dollar card and a sell-off down towards the 1.3308 and again I
think this probably happens into CPI on Thursday what I would say is if we only correct here into Thursday and we do nothing a week that's a sign that we're probably going to see a sell-off on CPI so keep an eye out for the price action before that piece of data I think on balance we correct and sell off into CPI and the final pair here is New Zealand dollar again any pullback is viewed as a potential opportunity in CPI to start to look for Longs the next key of resistance is 0.60780 but again if you want to trade this because the markets are corrective choppy and the scorecards are basically saying there's no outright good long or shorts if you're looking to trade this into CPI please remember you are still an overall downtrend it's important to remember that because the sell-off or the Snapback can be quite vicious and it could as I said beyond CPI which kickstarts catalyzes the next leg down in the New Zealand dollar market okay so starting with aussiecad now the Aussie pairs to the downside and the pound pairs to the downside are the two top setups that I've been looking at again I highlight the fact there are no fantastic opportunities at the moment because nothing is scoring above two or below two so don't be surprised to see some markets being choppy and corrective because that is ultimately what the scorecards are showing however I do like these four on balance and if we get a sell-off in the dollar there's not really much between these as what's better and what's worse but I do think the pound pairs could actually slightly underperform or rather I should say do better than the Aussie pairs over here to the downside because the pound is not a commodity currency so if the Dollar's selling off there's a good chance you see the commodity currencies here outperforming the pound whereas the Aussie is a commodity currency so these markets could actually not do as well as the pound pairs if the dollar starts sell off so just better in mind next week but I think all four of these are the better opportunity is out there we are turning to the downside so any continued pullback you can see we've already started to break down this is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts into the lows if you want to be conservative and the next key of support is 0.8522 both commodity currencies but the Australian dollar is struggling recently against a New Zealand dollar any continued pullback in this market is viewed as a correction and I'm looking for the declines down to the lows again if you want to be conservative and then on to the 1.0809 next is pound CAD now based on the fact as
I said that you have a non-commodity currency set to decline against commodity currency and that's exactly what you would expect to see with a dollar sell-off I do favor the pound pairs over the Aussie pairs next week any pullback you can see we've had a head and shoulders break here with momentum any pullback especially if we come back near to retest the lows over here this is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts down to the 1.5082 I do like this setup for further declines next week League next is pound New Zealand now again a bigger Head and Shoulders reversal in this market and we started to break with momentum any pullback in this market is simply viewed as a correction as an opportunity to look for shorts down to the 1.8864 and again if we get that dollar sell-off like I think we will it is the pound pairs to the downside that I think will be the better markets next week next is cab Frank now these are not highlighted in Gold because as you can see these are actually counter to an oval downtrend and I do think we sell off down to these levels ultimately but the question is when could it be on a hotter CPI print next Thursday absolutely it could be that is what could tank stocks and that is what could rally the dollar and cause a flight to safety which would be CAD Frank to the downside once again so any pullback in this market especially if we come back and re-test this high this is viewed as a possible opportunity next week albeit counter Trend and it would be an opportunity to look for Longs into the 0.74 four seven and the final Forex pair here is New Zealand Frank now again this Market is not highlighted in Gold because the overall trend is down I am looking for the 0.55 120 at some point but we need to see risk off coming back into the markets as it currently stands any pullback is viewed as a potential opportunity to look for Longs into the 0.5963 again not highlighted in Gold because of this counter Trend setup I do favor especially the pound pairs but also the Aussie pairs next week in Forex okay so wrapping up the video with gold silver and Bitcoin look at the gold silver ratio big sell-off and we've actually had a major downward sloping which is usually the most explosive head and shoulders and we broke out last week so I am looking for this to pull back and continue loyal which means I do favor silver Longs over gold Longs next week but I am near term bullish on both as I think the dxy heads down to the 109.48 so the First Market here
is gold and I do like the way this is technically setting up I think there's a very good good chance we come to the 1729.48 in gold and out of all of the dollar pairs if you want to trade something with a dollar in it gold and potentially silver would be the markets that I'll be looking at and favoring next week in order to reflect that bias of the dollar coming down to the 109.48 so as you can see a big breakout any pullback in Gold I do think this is a good opportunity to start to look for Longs into the 17 to 9.48 and I would not be surprised to see this happen into the CPI report on Thursday keep your eye out for gold because I do like the look of this technically and in the context of what we talked about with the dxy next is silver we've had a big breakout of this previous consolidation here and you can see really nice momentum to the upside so any pullback in silver is viewed as an opportunity next week to look for Longs into the 21.4230 which is the major breakout to the downside highlighted in previous videos and if we break through here I'll be looking up to the 22.49 which is the next Kiera of resistance to the upside just bear in mind once the dxy runs into the 109 I'm 480 if it does sell off and we get this rally which I think is likely you may start to see gold and silver struggling if we get a bounce especially from the CPI report on Thursday so just bear that in mind and last but not least we have Bitcoin we did break out of a major consolidation last week and especially if we're going to get some risk on as the dxy heads down to the 109.48 I am looking for a pullback you can see we've had this kind
of uh a b c kind of consolidation over here and we are now breaking out of this momentum so any pullback is viewed as an opportunity to look for Longs and the next key of resistance is the 22 666.20 so that is it for me for this week guys as always I hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thank to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far if you enjoyed today's video why not consider joining us during the week where I share my charts as well as the setups that I'm personally looking at Trading with members on a daily basis and we also published the scorecards for over 75 markets in different asset classes including Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find out more about the benefits of GMT membership by clicking the links in the description below and also in the pinned comment below so thanks for watching the only thing left to say is take care and don't get straight safely [Music] thank you
2022-11-08 02:39