Weekly Forex Forecast (06/06/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're   having a great weekend last week was a fantastic  week the top highlighted pair was caddying to the   upside and it actually closed up over four percent  last week now something very important to note   is over the next two weeks we do have a number of  interest rate decisions coming up and so the next   two weeks in the markets are likely to get quite  volatile and as always we're going to go through   the same process and we're going to start with  the economic calendar where we're going to see   those upcoming interest rate decisions so quick  look at the economic calendar shows us first and   foremost on tuesday we have an australian interest  rate decision and the rba are expected to raise   interest rates this is interesting because when we  go and look at scorecards the australian pairs are   setting up to be one of the best opportunities  next week so certainly it's unlikely that we're   going to get any movement in the aussie pairs  before tuesday say on monday however because this   happens very early on in the week this is going  to provide good potential setups in the aussie   pairs which we're going to go through when we  go through the charts so i like the aussie pairs   but i'm only going to be trading them from tuesday  onwards after the interest rate decision comes out   if we scroll down you can see we also have an  interest rate decision out of the eu on thursday   they're not expected to raise interest rates but  when you have interest rate decisions you can see   the euro pairs kind of consolidating into this  because it's the end of the week whenever i see   an interest rate decision at the end of the week  i'm still prepared to trade those markets during   the week in case the markets move but i won't take  too many i won't take three or four euro trades   and just sit there while i do nothing all week i  will probably just try and pick the best euro pair   and trade that in the coming week and if it moves  before thursday then fantastic if it doesn't   i'm only holding one through the interest  rate decision now aside from that we also   have some cpi data coming out on friday which  considering the current stagflationary scenario   and the economic conditions and the impact that  inflation is having on bond yields and equities   this has recently become more of an important  piece of data previously when inflation really was   just around the two percent mark before we had the  massive stimulus during the coverage recession the   cpi data didn't have too much of an impact on the  market it's an important piece of data but even   more important in today's economic environment  so i wouldn't be surprised season volatility in   the us dollar pairs and therefore a number of the  markets including the euro pairs etc on friday and   now if we just skip ahead one week you can see  that we have also coming up the following fomc   which is the big one and this is very important  because it may be the case that the dollar pairs   don't move too much into fomc we might see them  kind of correct next week and if that's the case   you're unlikely to see them moving the following  week between monday tuesday and wednesday into   fomc so the reason it's important to take note of  this now is again a bit like the euro pairs yes   i will be interested in trading the dollar  pairs because they show up in the scorecards as   good opportunities next week but because of this  i'm not going to take too many trades i'm going   to pick just the best dollar setup next week  because if the market's going to correct from   now all the dollar pairs are going to correct from  now into fomc then i'm just going to be tying up   lots of capital in markets which aren't going to  move for a week and a half so i don't want to be   doing that so very important to pay attention  to fomc coming up on june 15th and also the   following week we have an interest rate decision  out of switzerland and out of the uk so there's   quite a lot going on in the next two weeks there's  almost certainly going to be opportunities in the   markets but the main one really over the next two  weeks is that fomc out of the u.s being the global   reserve currency it does mean we may see markets  a bit subdued into that so just bear that in mind   when we go through the markets in today's video  okay so looking at scorecards coming into this   week and what is the date to say this is one month  forward-looking scorecards based around macro data   a number of different variables and last week the  scorecards were showing a kind of consolidation   to say that market opportunities were sort of  drying up and we saw over the last two weeks   trading conditions became a little bit more tricky  however one of the things that was noted in last   week's video was although we had nothing  really potentially very strong or very weak   we did take note of the momentum of the  scorecards themselves last week because   very often in the scorecards the direction of  travel or the momentum precedes the actual score   and the thing that was noted last week was the  weakening of the yen and we anticipated a further   weakening and a shifting of the yen from left to  right in the scorecards and that was the result   last week the yen pairs were highlighted as the  best opportunities last week and if you go and   look at their performance they were undoubtedly  the best markets to be involved with last week   and the second thing i was looking at last  week as well was the pound weakness which was   really standing out in fairly neutral otherwise  bullish to neutral or bearish to neutral scores   and the pound pairs held their score at -2  and we did see some declines in those markets   such as pound cats the downside which we looked at  in last week's video pound aussie to the downside   etc so coming to this week we do have some more  opportunities on the table here it's telling   us trading opportunities are increasing and the  australian dollar is highlighted as the best long   and although it's highlighted the best  long we still have to take this as an   interest rate decision trade really going into  next week and so when we look at the charts   themselves and certainly i'm going to be looking  at aussie yen to the upside once again this week   poundlessly to the downside once again we're  also going to look at euro aussie to the downside   i would prefer and i generally prefer to  trade those interest rate decision trades   after the interest rate decision comes  out sometimes i will take a position   in advance of the interest rate decision and i  will hold through but most of the time i prefer   to wait because there's less risk involved because  anything can happen on interest rate decisions   even if the rba come out and raise interest  rates which is inherently bullish for the   currency you can see the market discount  it and you can see the aussie sell-off   so taking positions before interest rate decisions  are always more risky because it's not even about   whether you get the outcome of the interest rate  decision right or not because the market itself   doesn't 100 of the time move in the way you would  expect it to on those types of decisions so those   three currency pairs are certainly going to be  on the watch list and right up there at the top   we're going to look at those in today's video the  second thing to note after the aussie strength or   potentially even before the aussie strengths  really because it's weaker to the downside   is the yen weakness these were as i said traded  successfully last week and they are once again at   the top of my list i'm looking for continuations  in those yen pairs so i'm going to look at aussie   yen we'll look at us dollar yen and we're going to  look at cadiente to the upside as well and we can   also see an increase in the dollar and a decrease  in the score of the euro and so i am also going to   be interested in looking at some euro shorts this  week and also us dollar long positions such as   pound dollar to the downside euro dollar to the  downside and also silver is a market which i   like going into next week the only caveat here  with the dollar pairs is this is not a normal   week per se because we have fomc coming up in  around eight trading days and it doesn't matter   whether the scores are bullish or bearish heading  to an interest rate decision very often you can   see markets consolidating so we are going to look  at euro shorts and also u.s dollar long positions   but i would just treat those very carefully i  wouldn't take too many positions in those markets   until fmc is out way so just to summarize aussie  strength plays next week and yen weakness plays   are my top themes heading into next week but i  am also going to be interested in some us dollar   and cad strength plays and also euro shorts  i'm least interested in the new zealand and   the frank pairs next week and although  i'm looking at us dollar and euro trades   i will be careful and bear in mind fomc coming up  and i'm not going to go too heavy in those markets   okay so let's look at the individual currencies  themselves started with the us dollar and we're   on the daily chart here just to get an overall  picture of the technicals of these currencies   and the reason we do this is because we want to  overlay the technicals with the macro framework   whenever you're trading you want to have your  fundamental bias from your macro framework   because macro explains 70 of moves in markets  but then you want to use technical analysis to   overlay to confirm or deny what your initial bias  is from your macro framework so the scorecards are   telling us we should be bullish on the us dollar  and the technicals themselves are actually showing   this as well although we had a steep pullback  and we broke below the seven year breakout of   the 102.992 which i've discussed previously this  is just a deep correction and i don't go too much   into this because it's i want to keep these videos  as simple as and concise and clear as possible   but this is a first degree correction this is  a second degree correction a bigger correction   this is first this is first this is first this is  second so we've had a few first degree corrections   when you have this the market kind of stalls out  and then you get a deeper correction like this   and you can see we're also alternating because  the previous deeper correction or the correction   to the second degree is shallow in form and we  have a deeper one now very often when you have   alternations like this you do get new highs and it  does look like we're going to rally to new highs   possibly onto the 106.08 whether we double top  in this area and then come back below the 102.992   is a question for another day in the near term it  does look like there's a good chance we rally back   into the highs so the technicals here are  confirming what we discussed and with fomc   that may be the catalyst to push this to new hires  or fomc always has the ability to reverse it but   for the near term i am looking for a push to new  highs in the dollar and as i said fomc is likely   to be the deciding factor of where the us dollar  goes from here from this major breakout level of   the 102.992 next is the euro the euro actually  has a setup very similar to silver which i like   and we're going to have a look at we broke back  above the major breakout level of 1.06710 and i  

did say to you previously don't be surprised just  to see this consolidate around this level into   fmc and we could very well see that which is why  i'm not going to go too heavy on euro and dollar   positions next week if i do trade them because  we may just continue to consolidate in this area   what tends to happen and you'll see this with  the australian dollar when we go and look at it   when we have interest rate decisions the  markets have a knack of getting themselves   into technical positions where they can go either  way and so i wouldn't be surprised to see this   consolidate here and that sets it up for a rally  and a failure of this breakout on fomc or perhaps   even the interest rate decision on thursday or a  break back down below here all of the traders who   are trying to buy this support level and deep are  going to have stop losses here and that will start   a catalyst to the downside you don't have to guess  which way the market's going to go and be wrong or   be on the wrong end of this and lose money the  best thing to do in these scenarios is just to   wait for the initial move so what i'd really like  to see here is i would really like to see the euro   breaking down here first like this take out some  stop losses down in this area see some momentum   and the market will correct it'll probably come  back and retest it on the underside like this that   would be the opportunity and that's where you're  likely going to kickstart the next bigger moves to   the downside so i am interested in this and that's  what i'm looking for in the euro next is the pound   and the pound has traded into resistance and this  is where the scorecards come in handy because   they will give you your bias to say is this a new  breakout to the upside should we be treating this   as an inverse head and shoulders or is this more  likely to fail at resistance and come down lower   the fundamental macro scorecards are telling  us on a one month forward looking basis the   probabilities lie with further decline so i am  bearish on the pound and i expect this attempted   break of previous resistance at the 1.2615 to  fail swiss franc some of you may have noticed   that swiss franc actually went from neutral to  bullish to neutral we had a little bit of momentum   in the scorecard so you may be thinking well why  not trade swiss franc to the upside the problem is   with such a steep pullback like this i think  there's a good chance we start to come down   for further declines in the swiss franc it's  also a swiss national bank policy of devaluation   and so i just personally don't like the way the  swiss franc is setting up this week i would expect   further declines to be honest in the swiss franc  and i wouldn't be surprised to see the bullish to   neutral rating turn to bearish to neutral next  is the yen i discussed previously the reasons   why we were having such a steep sell-off in the  end and the dilemma the boj has between saving   their currency or saving their bond market and  currently they're choosing to save the bond market   and i noted that although this was technically  slightly bullish we were actually just in a   correction and we had the big sell-off last week  and i expect this to break the lows and further   declines in the end would see it come down to the  0.0074180 because of the scorecards this week this   is one of my favorite positions going into next  week is those yen short positions next is the cad   the cat has actually reversed to the upside and  it looks like we may start to form an inverse head   and shoulders in this area and with this recent  reversal to the upside in the fact the cad is   kind of bullish to neutral in the scorecards i  do like canadian positions heading into this week   and we are going to look at those in the form of  pound cad uh eurocad and also kadyem which paid so   nicely last week next is the aussie now remember  how i was saying that markets have a knack of   getting themselves into technical positions  to go either way when you have an interest   rate decision that's exactly what we're seeing  here with the aussie the aussie has pulled back   into resistance this could now consolidate and  then break higher like this and you'd have a bit   of an inverse head and shoulders reversal or we  could have this just pulling back into resistance   and then continuing down like this so the aussie  really can go either way i'm looking for further   advances in the australian dollar based on what  we're looking at in the macro scorecards if we   get an interest rate decision hike out of the rba  don't be surprised see this breaking higher and   that would be the sign to start to look further  advances breaks higher starts to pull back and   those would be your opportunities to the upside  that's what i'm going to be looking for next week   and finally the new zealand on its own we've got  this bear flag which i've discussed in previous   videos and i am looking for this to actually  resolve itself to the downside it's currently   neutral but on balance i think we're going to see  further declines in the new zealand dollar okay   so let's have a look at the markets themselves  last week we took out the slightly longer term   target in crude oil we had a nice pullback here  this was the opportunity to buy into the 11820   we did take out the target and we're now moving  on to the second target any pullback in crude   oil next week is viewed as an opportunity  to look for bullish setups into the 125.95   next is aussie yen aussie yen absolutely smashed  through the targets last week and last week's   video this was a market highlighted it was this  kind of inverse head and shoulders breakout that   caused this massive rally to the upside and we  looked at it as it was breaking out last week   any pullback markets do not tend to have  such a steep rally and then just sell off   any pullback therefore should be considered  as a high probability opportunity to look   for bullish setups into the 95.69 we do have  an interest rate decision so it is one of my  

favorite pairs my top pairs going into next week  are aussie yen us dollar yen cad yen pound dollar   pound cad and also silver but it's in blue  because we have an interest rate decision so   what i'd really like to see here is because we're  right at the top here i would like to see the   market sell off on the interest rate decision  and if it sells off and then starts to correct   say on tuesday and wednesday then look for the  breakout in the tail end of the week in aussie yen   that's what i'm going to be looking at and that's  one of my favorite setups in fact that's my top   set up and top pair going into next week next  is us dollar yen now we also had a rally to the   upside in us dollar yen we're coming close to the  target here so any pullback in this market will   be viewed next week as an opportunity to look for  bullish breakouts into the 131.34 next is kadyan   this was the breakout highlighted in last week's  video and it was a great opportunity we took out   both targets and in fact look how well respected  these targets were we came straight to the first   target we consolidated once we broke that we  went straight to the second target and then we   consolidated again we started to break higher  going into this week any pullback in cad yen is   viewed as an opportunity to start to look for long  positions once again and with such a steep move   we're likely going to need a bit of a correction  a bit of a pause here first but any correction any   pauses simply use another opportunity to look  for longs into the 105.28 pound ozzy took out   the target to the downside last week and started  to break below it any pullback in this market is   going to be viewed an opportunity to look for  shorts and what i'd like to see again because   we're down at the lows if we could get a snapback  on the interest rate decision in other words we   get a raising of interest rates but the market  discounts it and so you see the aussie sell-off   and with that i would be looking to fade  this i'd be looking for this to peter out   and i'd be looking for short positions down to the  1.7174 so i do like pound dollars again it's next  

week but i'm going to be looking at this primarily  after the interest rate decision on tuesday euro   aussie another market i like going into next week  but again what i'd like to see is we already have   a bit of a correction here so if we continue  to correct like this perhaps aussie versus the   euro will be the best market if we get a rally in  the australian dollar because what will happen is   pound aussie which is right at the lows for  example would just sell off like this without   correction but euro aussie because it's already  pulling back it will sell off like this and then   you can have the opportunity to look for shorts  like this so you could even subdivide these two   into different interest rate decision setups  whereby if the market discounts the hike and   you get a sell-off in the australian dollar you're  going to get a nice pullback in all these markets   and then you can look to fade it but if the market  comes out and say we get an interest rate hike   and these markets just sell off because the  aussie rallies then euro aussie will probably   provide the best setup because you have more of  a correction here next is pound dollar this is   highlighted as one of my favorite because of what  we've seen in the scorecards and i do think we get   further declines in pound dollar just bear  in mind we have fomc in a week and a half   so if i am going to trade dollar pairs probably  pound dollar maybe euro dollar or silver would be   the top three dollar pairs i'd be interested in  trading before fomc you can see we've already   started to pull back and we've broken out of this  huge correction here we're now starting to break   out to the downside so any pullback in this market  simply views an opportunity to look for shorts   into the previous lows and then on to the  1.2081 may take a couple of weeks to get down   here because as i said earlier we had a bigger  correction in the dxy next is EURUSD now i like   how EURUSD setting up this is pretty interesting  we've broken down below the major breakout level   in EURUSD we pulled back we retested it we've  now broken lower we pulled back we've retested it   and this is just simply consolidating around this  will almost becomes the mean of the consolidation   around this key area this is very typical and  this is probably going to last going into fomc   what i'd like to see is any correction like this  perhaps this just corrects into fomc and this is a   market we have to look at not this coming week but  the following week if nothing happens into frmc   i would like to see the market break down like  this all of the traders who bought support   so broken resistance turning support they bought  here they're going to have stop losses here   they're going to get essentially stopped out  and they're going to scramble to get out their   positions and if we break lower like this this  is going to set up the reverse scenario to the   downside to the 1.034 so this is the setup  i'm looking at but may require a little bit   of patience to play out because of fomc and also  the euro interest rate decision we have as well   this week new zealand dollar i still like this  market to the downside but you can see we're just   continuing to correct probably just going to  correct maybe next week as well and then we break   down our fomc and that's the opportunity for the  next leg down so again i do like this but we may   have to be patient now with fomc on the horizon  pound cad we came down took out the target last   week at the 1.57370 this is a market i really  like going into this week we have some nice  

momentum to the downside any pullback and this  is one of my favorite setups going into next week   any pullback is going to be viewed as the  opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to the 1.5576 and the final forex pair here  before we move on to gold silver and bitcoin is   eurocad i like this market to the downside  but it's not highlighted in gold because   of the eu interest rate decision on thursday  i prefer poundcad any pullback though in this   market would be views an opportunity to look for  shorts perhaps we correct into the interest rate   decision and then we sell off like this that's  the opportunity to look for shorts into the 1.3393   okay so wrapping up with XAUUSD XAGUSD and bitcoin  the gold silver ratio is still holding above the   83.70 and when i do the commodity score cards and  in fact i put XAUUSD and XAGUSD in the commodity  

scorecards just because of the way they're  constructed in terms of supply and demand   variables not only is the gold silver ratio  holding above the 83.70 but XAGUSD is rated   as one of the worst or best shorts you could say  in terms of the commodity complex so i do favor   silver to the downside and it's one of my favorite  to pair against the dollar if we start by having a   look at XAUUSD i am bearish but as i said i favor  XAGUSD shorts any further declines in this market   and if we come down take out this level we have  a confirmed double top here in gold that would   be the opportunity markets very rarely break these  patterns and just come straight down in a vertical   line any break of this confirmed pattern look  for a correction that would be the opportunity   in my opinion to start to look for  shorts in gold down to the 1789.28   next is silver very similar setup and it's also a  cross between what we just looked at here in gold   and if you remember the EURUSD set up because  we have the double top here which is confirmed   below here but even more so we have stop loss  orders which are going to be on these people who   they we broke above the major breakout level of  the 21.45 price pulled back they bought this as   a dip so broken resistance turning support they  bought this but unfortunately they bought this in   a downtrend you don't buy support in a downtrend  you buy support and sell resistance in a range   and when you're in a downtrend you sell  resistance when you're in uptrend you buy support   but either way they've decided to buy support in  an overall downtrend and if the market comes down   here you are very likely to see some capitulation  as they get stopped out as this double top pattern   is confirmed and this turns into a big bear flag  and a continuation and any break in a re-test   that would be a fantastic setup look for that kind  of setup in silver and then for further declines   onto the 20.51 so i do like silver but maybe a  bit of patience required first look for this to   break down below the 2145 if you want additional  confirmation or further declines before you get   involved in this and last but not least we have  bitcoin bitcoin as i mentioned previously in   videos failed to even come up and try and reclaim  this 3293 we've seen silver we've seen euro   we've seen even the yen pairs tried to pull back  towards it in fact very similar to the yen pairs   like bitcoin got close to it and then sold off so  bitcoin is definitely weak as it currently stands   and i am still looking for declines for the 24  307 that's where i've been looking at in previous   videos we have now started to break down and so  any continued pullback either to re-test this area   here we get a bit of a head and shoulders or if  we break here on a comfort head and shoulders this   would be an opportunity to look for shorts in this  area and if we break down that would be a second   opportunity to look for shorts in this area down  to the previous lows and then on to the 24 307.  

so that is it for me for this week guys as  always i hope you enjoyed this video if you   did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next week   the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-06-08 02:09

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