Weekly Forex Forecast (05/09/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (05/09/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this  week's weekly Forex forecast I hope you're   having a fantastic weekend in last week's video I  highlighted the dollar pairs as the best place to   make money in last week's trading and all of the  pairs highlighted in gold which have now closed   for the week closed successfully and the best  opportunity was highlighted as pound dollar to   the downside and that closed down over two percent  last week Bitcoin was also highlighted in last   week's video but it has yet to close the week it  closes tomorrow and I still think Bitcoin is on   track to close successfully this week as well okay  so a quick look at the economic calendar because   there are some very important pieces of data  coming up and there were some important pieces   of data last week very quickly from last week the  ism data and also the non-farm payrolls data came   out better than expected and this is being  seen as giving the FED more room to continue   with their aggressive rate hiking and increasing  the probabilities of a 75 basis points hike from   the fed this month in this month's meeting okay  so jumping ahead to this week we do have a bank   holiday out of the us on Monday so I expect that  the markets will pretty much do nothing on Monday   but once we come to Tuesday we have an interest  rate decision out of Australia and when we look   at the Aussie pairs today just bear in mind that  this is the case and that the market is likely to   do nothing I'm talking about the Australian dollar  pairs on Monday and lean into this interest rate   decision on Tuesday and then they're likely to  start to move from Tuesday onwards anytime because   we also have a Canadian interest rate decision  this week as well so anytime you decide to trade   an interest rate decision before the interest  rate decision takes place it's going to entail   more risk it's going to be more risky than if  you wait until afterwards so it's entirely your   choice how you wish to trade them but just bear in  mind one carries more risk than the other I prefer   generally unless I have a very high conviction to  trade after the interest rate decisions themselves   and beforehand those markets tend to do nothing so  Monday Tuesday Wednesday don't be surprised to see   the Canadian pairs go nowhere and then start to  move from Wednesday onwards we will be looking at   both the Aussie and the cad pairs in today's video  and the big one next week really is the interest   rate decision out of the EU they are expected  to raise rates by 75 basis points and to me this   actually started out once we had if you remember  back we had good economic data essentially or it's   not great economic data but better than expected  economic data coming out of the US this allowed   the Federal Reserve to be more hawkish this had  Traders investing or piling into the dollar which   put downward pressure on the Euro and it started  out that the ECB came out basically in my opinion   almost to Jawbone the Euro a bit higher by saying  look we're considering a 75 basis points hike at   the next meeting and now the markets have actually  priced that in so whether they were jawboning to   begin with and they've boxed themselves into a  corner here or perhaps because of the inflation   data which has been coming out they really do  feel the need to go 75 basis points either way the   Market is now expecting the ECB on Thursday  to raise by 75 basis points now the problem   with this is that EU inflation and U.S inflation  are not the same thing when you look at it there   is more demand driven inflation in the US which  can be better addressed by raising rates tight in   financial conditions whereas in the EU there is  much more inflation on the supply side which is   not going to be helped by raising interest  rates so the problem the EU has is if they   raise rates too aggressively they run the risk  of really not doing much on the inflation side   because it's coming primarily from Energy prices  which have been driven up by the Ukraine war and   at the same time if their unemployment and growth  Outlook starts to deteriorate very quickly because   their hiking rates aggressively then they're not  only going to have high inflation but they run   the risk of having to cut rates again much earlier  because of Damage Done to growth and employment so   I don't think the ECB personally speaking just  my opinion I don't think they really wanted to   go 75 basis points I think they started out just  trying to put some support under the Euro as the   recent economic data after the US was better  than expected and therefore bullish for the   dollar and on top of that the other problem  that the ECB faces is at the end of last week   going into this meeting which of course I don't  think in any way is a coincidence the Russian   government turned off already gasprom but an  armed with the Russian government turned off the   nordstream one pipeline so now there are no gas  flows going into Germany which is going to again   exacerbate the inflation problem that EU faces and  on top of that they've closed it down indefinitely   so they haven't yet said exactly when it's  going to reopen so all of this is actually   going to put pressure on the ECB next week to  actually come out with a less severe rate hike   and perhaps go 50 basis points and so if they do  this and the market is pricing in 75 basis points   just bear in mind the risk is to the downside  for the euro asymmetrically in my opinion because   there is no way that the ECB is going to come  out in my mind with a hundred basis points rate   hike and surprise to the upside because this is  going to cause all kinds of problems so the far   greater risk next week I mean look anything can  happen you know there is probably a very very   very small odds somewhere of them coming out with  one percent rate hike but I think it's probably   close to zero but far more likely in terms of  probabilities is that they come out with a 50   basis point rate hike because of the concerns over  not just growth and spreads but also now Nordstrom   one and if that's the case you are going to see  a very strong bullish Catalyst for the dollar   and you're going to see the Euro selling off  pretty hard if they come out and they raise by   75 basis points then all their doing is what the  Market's already priced in and you can still see   the Euro rolling over on that so in my opinion  this is the event which is going to dominate   the markets next week not just the Euro but also  likely the dollar and I do think the bigger risk   here is for an unexpected 50 basis points and  therefore the biggest risk is for the Euro to   the downside the dollar to the upside okay okay  so let's have a look at the scorecards coming into   this week and the first thing to note is that the  pound still has its foot flat to the floor here at   -4 so the pound really is the top play in my  opinion heading into next week and in fact last   week it was the best performer even outside of  pound dollar which did well the pound sold off   against virtually every other currency and even  the Swiss franc pairs we looked at last week but   highlighted as not some of the best opportunities  but just opportunities it was the pound that   underperformed the Frank pairs as opposed to the  New Zealand and the Euro so pound weakness is   still absolutely a number one priority heading to  next week and it is my favorite play after that it   is Long Dollar so again pound dollar specifically  to the downside is absolutely something I'm going   to be paying attention to and aside from that you  can see the other signals you could see here are   for the Canadian dollar which has a score now  of two and has increased its score its positive   score from plus one to two and on the other side  is the Japanese Yen which has a score of minus   two decreasing its score from minus one last  week and as I've always said in these videos   those are the best signs usually of setups heading  into next week when you have positive currencies   becoming more positive and negative currencies  becoming more negative now something to reiterate   because often this gets lost in the interest rate  decision weeks is that the interest rate decisions   themselves have the ability to reverse Trends  to reverse markets and this is why I often say   if you want to be on the safe side look for the  opportunities that you see here in the scorecards   once the interest rate decisions themselves take  place because that's when you will have the least   risky setups in the markets which have interest  rate decisions that week so at summarize here   I'm going to be looking at pound dollar to the  downside once again going to be looking at US   dollar Yen to the upside this week also going  to be looking at pound CAD to the downside and   also cadion to the upside they are going to be  preferably interest rate decision trades from   Wednesday onwards because those pairs are likely  to do nothing into Wednesday and then move from   Wednesday onwards so if we get a bullish reaction  from the Canadian dollar from Wednesday onwards   that's your sign to start to look at cadien to  the upside and also pound CAD to the downside   and the same with the Australian dollar here if  we get a bullish reaction from the Australian   dollar on the interest rate decision on Tuesday  that's going to be your opportunity to then go   and have a look at Aussie Yen to the upside  for the rest of the week pound Aussie to the   downside for the rest of the week okay so let's  have a look at the individual currencies before   moving on to the markets themselves starting  with the dxy the whole way through this I was   telling you guys this is most likely a correction  and we are headed for new highs and into the 1   0.76 we did take out the 109.76 last week and that  was a fantastic move in fact that was pretty much   in Forex terms you're August right there from the  roughly 105 into the 109.76 coming into this week   the dxy is still the only currency in an overall  bull market and it's really benefiting from the   weakness of the Japanese Yen because any risk-off  sentiment is flowing into the dollar as opposed to   the end because of the ongoing situation with  the bond market in Japan and the devaluation   of the N so any pullback in this market is simply  viewed as another opportunity to look for bullish   reversals into the 111.30 next is the euro in  the Euro we did break down and retested the major   seven year breakout level of the 1.0375 we are now  consolidating we've pretty much gone nowhere one  

two three four five six seven eight for a couple  of weeks here and so any continued correction or   pullback is still only viewed as an opportunity  to look for further declines in the euro into   the 0.9780 next is the pound now I'm showing you  this on a weekly chart instead of the daily chart   because I want to show you where we are in the  pound we're approaching the next targets at the   1.1450 but this is not a level of significant  support in any sense this is actually a major   it's the start of a major breakout to the downside  in the pound I mean where do we go from here I   posted a while ago that I believed the pound was  heading to parity I do still believe that we are   heading down towards parity in the pound I'm not  saying it's going to happen next week but a break   below the 1.1450 in the pound is the start of the  next major leg down it's not the end it's not the   bottom it's the start of the next major leg down  in the pound so keep an eye out for a break of   the 1.1450 next week because if we can break down  below the 1.1450 with momentum and you see all of   these buyers who are have been underwater if they  bought down here if they bought up here they've   already been stopped out all of these buyers or  the last buyer here is likely to capitulate once   we take out these lows and this does spell some  real trouble for the pound and again if we're only   just starting to break out to the downside in the  pound what does that tell you about the dxy which   of course the pound makes up a part of the dollar  Index so huge breakout to the downside potentially   next week at the 1.1450 I absolutely under no  circumstances would want to be long the pound  

and it is my favorite short next is the Swiss  franc now I believe there was actually a Target   down here last week and we came and achieved the  Target in the Swiss franc however I think I took   this off accidentally I'm not 100 sure but I'm  about 95 sure we took out the target here and   I've accidentally removed it but either way the  Swiss franc is selling off to the downside and   last week the reason I didn't put the Swiss franc  pairs in Gold even though they had a score of plus   two was because they came off of an overbought  level for the first time and when you start to   see markets coming off overboard or oversold in  the scorecards they tend to continue all the way   down usually to the other side of the scorecards  and this is what we've seen in the Swiss franc   and going into this week this is one I'm not  really interested in the Swiss franc and you can   see it's actually yes it's currently bearish and  we're selling off but it's overall fairly neutral   especially relative to other currencies like the  Euro or the pound so I think patience is required   on the Swiss franc pairs they're not a fantastic  short relatively speaking because they are still   positive in the scorecards but at the same time  they're not a great buy I think we could continue   down here in the Swiss franc so Swiss franc pairs  off the table for me for the time being next is   the Japanese Yen the major breakout was below the  0.007945 and we haven't even really looked back   here we took out the target to the downside last  week 0.0072120 going into this week I am looking   for the declines in any pullback is viewed as an  opportunity to look for shorts in the end once   again into the 0.0070260 next is the cat the cad  is not particularly bullish when we look at it  

technically but it is the second best scoring  currency on a one month forward-looking basis   I really would only like to trade the cad  pairs next week say cadion pound CAD which are   highlights here as two is the best but remember  we have the interest rate decision out of CAD on   Wednesday so what I would like to see probably  if we could come down and kind of double bottom   here and then reverse higher on Wednesday that  would probably be the best setup to start to   look for cadion to the upside and pound CAD to the  downside even if don't forget even if the Canadian   dollar just chops around and does nothing it will  still rise vis-a-vis the pound and the Yen If It   Moves sideways and the Yen sells off or the pound  sells off you will still see kadian moving to the   upside and you'll still see pound CAD moving to  the downside if the cad really goes nowhere and   the other two remain very very weak so I do like  the cad pairs relatively next week but again it's   the dollar pairs which are the number one setups  currently Australian dollar I did highlight The   Head and Shoulders breakout this is the start of  a new trend down and I do expect to come down to 0   0.66890 and make a new lower low in this overall  trend to the downside that we have and finally   the New Zealand dollar also bearish but again  not really as bearish currently as I am with   the pound with the Euro or even with the Japanese  Yen any continued pullback is simply viewed as an   opportunity to look for declines into the 0.600  level okay so let's have a look at the market   starting with crude oil crude oil does look like a  good opportunity going into next week in fact it's   one of my favorite I haven't mastered in Gold but  it's one of my favorite setups heading into next   week outside of these pairs here why because I do  think we are going to come down to the 84.49 you   could probably put this in Gold any pullback in  WTI Crude oil next week is going to be viewed as   an opportunity to look for bearish setups into the  84.49 in a week where the Forex pairs might be a   little bit choppy because of all the interest rate  decisions crude oil I think could be one of the   best places to look for opportunity next week next  is pound dollar we smashed through the target last   week at the 1.17150 we're heading down towards  Target Two from last week at the 1.1411 heading   into this week pound dollar is my favorite short  once again this was my favorite short last week   any pullback in this market is simply viewed as  another opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to the one point one four eleven as I just  showed you the 1.1411 is the major low and if we  

break through here there's nothing but air down to  the 1.0886 so pound dollar is really going to be   my favorite short head into next week in terms of  the Forex complex and I think the pound actually   is in quite a bit of trouble next is US dollar  Yen we took out previous Target to the 140.29   we didn't look at this last week but that was a  target from previous videos when we did look at   it any correction in this market is viewed as  an opportunity to look for bullish setups and   when I say this I know sometimes people like  to say look for a pullback to here look for a   correction into this area but but the markets  can correct sideways they can correct deep you   can never predict in advance how a market is going  to correct you don't need to predict those things   you just need to react to them wait for the market  to correct however the market corrects that's your   opportunity to then look for a bullish breakout  and that gives you your opportunity to start   to look for Longs into the 142.19 next is euro  dollar just bear in mind with all of the dollar   pairs that interest rate decision on Thursday out  of the ECB can have an effect on the dollar pairs   but certainly euro dollar I would be looking  for a correction what I'd really like to see is   a correction in euro dollar perhaps even into  the interest rate decision and that would be   the opportunity then to look for bearish setups  especially if we break down on the interest rate   decision like this any momentum to the downside  after a correction into the ECB meeting that's   going to be a great opportunity to look for  shorts once again into the 0.9860 and the final   dollar pair is New Zealand dollar we've started  to pull back towards the end of the week anyway   so any correction like this look for a breakout to  the downside and that's the opportunity to start   to look for shorts in New Zealand dollar into  the 0.6015 so those are my four favorite dollar   pairs heading into next week just bear in mind  especially with euro dollar but potentially all of   them that ECB meeting on Thursday it may dominate  the Euro and the dollar next week next is cadien   just bear in mind as well with the cad pairs we  do have the Canadian interest rate decision on   Wednesday so what I would like to see in this pair  is any pullback and a correction I'd like to see   this Market pull back like this into Wednesday and  then on Wednesday when we have the interest rate   decision if we get some momentum to the upside  that's the opportunity to start to look for long   positions into the 107.64 and just remember the  objective here is not to trade every single one  

of these markets it's to find the opportunities  in these markets you only need to trade one good   Market each week to make money next is pound  CAD now this Market really should be on the top   because pound CAD I prefer over cadien because the  pound is weaker than the end so any pullback you   can see we've broken out of this consolidation  over here any pullback towards this area is   going to be viewed next week as an opportunity to  look for bearish reversals down to the next year   of support of the 1.502 and the final Market  here not highlighted in Gold it's not one of   my favorite but pound Frank did underperform  last week even though the Swiss franc wasn't   particularly strong it was quite weak itself  so heading into this week if you are looking   to trade Swiss franc pairs I would absolutely only  be looking at pound Frank we started to break out   so any pullback in this market and the good thing  with this Market is although it's not as good in   the scorecards it does allow you to sidestep some  of those interest rate decisions any pullback in   this market is going to use an opportunity to look  for shorts into the one point one one one nine so   worth having pound Frank in there purely because  of the amount of interest rate decision affected   pairs we have next week next is pound Aussie we  took out the target at the 1.69 180 we do have the   interest rate decision on the Aussie pairs here  the final Aussie pairs don't forget on Tuesday   what I would like to see is if this Market does  nothing and then we start to break lower like this   from Tuesday's interest rate decision because we  get a bullish Australian dollar reaction from it   that would be your opportunity Wednesday Thursday  to look for a pullback and that would be the   opportunity to look for shorts into the 1.6885 so  pound Aussie and Aussie and I will be looking to   trade only after the Australian interest rate  decision on Tuesday so wrapping up the Aussie   pairs with Aussie Yen again any correction I'd  like to see the market correct first I'm not going   to be looking to trade this on Monday so if it  corrects on Monday and then we get the break like   this on Tuesday morning that's your sign to start  to look for potential long setups into the 96.99  

okay so wrapping up the video with gold silver  and Bitcoin and the first thing here which is very   very important going into next week because we  have an interest rate decision which affects the   Euro the dollar the cad and also the Aussie pairs  if you want to try and sidestep that event risk as   much as possible crude oil to the downside goal to  the downside and especially silver to the downside   and Bitcoin to the downside are probably your top  four pairs to do that because those markets are   not only good setups heading into next week in my  opinion but they are the least affected by all of   the interest rate decision volatility next week  so just bear that in mind because we have a lot   of interest rate decisions next week if you  want to skip or sidestep a lot of that vent   risk I would be looking at crude oil silver and  Bitcoin to the downside and then after that also   gold to the downside okay so starting with the  gold silver ratio we did take out the 95 level   and this has led to an out performance of gold  over silver or you could say an underperformance   of silver relative to gold which is exactly what  I've been highlighting in recent videos if you had   been short silver as we have been in the weekly  Forex forecast and I've personally been trading   you would have done much better recently than if  you'd been shorting gold I still believe this is   the case heading into next week and I'm looking  for the 90 693 next in the silver gold ratio next   is gold we are coming down to the Target of the  167687 and we did bounce and we're putting now in   here A Bear Flag so any continued correction and  again perhaps you don't want to trade next week   because of all the interest rate decisions that's  fine oil gold silver Bitcoin keep an eye on those   for next week any pullback continue to pull back  in gold is simply viewed as another opportunity to   look for shorts into the 1676.87 next is silver  silver was a great short last week and we came   all the way down into the target at 17.63 almost  to the pit that was a fantastic move in silver we   have started to correct but as it currently stands  this is simply viewed as a correction and any   continued pullback the deeper the better because  it gives us better risk to reward to the Target   any continued pullback is simply viewed as another  opportunity to look for shorts into the 1696. our   last but not least is Bitcoin I've been bearish  on bitcoin for a while in fact all the way down   really and this has been a fantastic Market to  trade to the short side what we're looking at here   is simply a consolidation this is a pause before  most likely the next move down and I am still   looking for shorts in Bitcoin this was the only  Market highlighted in Gold last week which didn't   close to the downside negatively or successfully  in the direction we're looking for and that's the   only reason for that is because the market hasn't  actually closed yet I do still think we could come   down today or even tomorrow in Bitcoin because it  trades over the weekend so any continued pullback   in Bitcoin is viewed as the opportunity to start  to look for shorts once again you can look first   of all for a conservative Target down here at  the 17 567.45 which is the major previous low  

in Bitcoin but overall I am looking for the  next key of support to the downside at 16 492   so Bitcoin didn't really go anywhere last week but  I am still bearish and don't be surprised to see   this close successfully to the downside by the end  of Sunday so that is it for me for this week guys   I haven't added in the stock indices this week  if you are interested to know what I think go   and have a look at the previous videos last week  and the week before I am still bearish on stocks   and I'm looking for new lows in U.S stock markets  maybe we get a bit of a correction next week but   I am looking for the declines over this month in  stock markets so as always I hope you enjoyed this   video and if you did please let me know by liking  sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody   who does that on a regular basis and a big thank  you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel   so far I want to wish you a fantastic weekend  and I want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-09-04 21:49

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