Weekly Forex Forecast (05/09/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having a fantastic weekend in last week's video I highlighted the dollar pairs as the best place to make money in last week's trading and all of the pairs highlighted in gold which have now closed for the week closed successfully and the best opportunity was highlighted as pound dollar to the downside and that closed down over two percent last week Bitcoin was also highlighted in last week's video but it has yet to close the week it closes tomorrow and I still think Bitcoin is on track to close successfully this week as well okay so a quick look at the economic calendar because there are some very important pieces of data coming up and there were some important pieces of data last week very quickly from last week the ism data and also the non-farm payrolls data came out better than expected and this is being seen as giving the FED more room to continue with their aggressive rate hiking and increasing the probabilities of a 75 basis points hike from the fed this month in this month's meeting okay so jumping ahead to this week we do have a bank holiday out of the us on Monday so I expect that the markets will pretty much do nothing on Monday but once we come to Tuesday we have an interest rate decision out of Australia and when we look at the Aussie pairs today just bear in mind that this is the case and that the market is likely to do nothing I'm talking about the Australian dollar pairs on Monday and lean into this interest rate decision on Tuesday and then they're likely to start to move from Tuesday onwards anytime because we also have a Canadian interest rate decision this week as well so anytime you decide to trade an interest rate decision before the interest rate decision takes place it's going to entail more risk it's going to be more risky than if you wait until afterwards so it's entirely your choice how you wish to trade them but just bear in mind one carries more risk than the other I prefer generally unless I have a very high conviction to trade after the interest rate decisions themselves and beforehand those markets tend to do nothing so Monday Tuesday Wednesday don't be surprised to see the Canadian pairs go nowhere and then start to move from Wednesday onwards we will be looking at both the Aussie and the cad pairs in today's video and the big one next week really is the interest rate decision out of the EU they are expected to raise rates by 75 basis points and to me this actually started out once we had if you remember back we had good economic data essentially or it's not great economic data but better than expected economic data coming out of the US this allowed the Federal Reserve to be more hawkish this had Traders investing or piling into the dollar which put downward pressure on the Euro and it started out that the ECB came out basically in my opinion almost to Jawbone the Euro a bit higher by saying look we're considering a 75 basis points hike at the next meeting and now the markets have actually priced that in so whether they were jawboning to begin with and they've boxed themselves into a corner here or perhaps because of the inflation data which has been coming out they really do feel the need to go 75 basis points either way the Market is now expecting the ECB on Thursday to raise by 75 basis points now the problem with this is that EU inflation and U.S inflation are not the same thing when you look at it there is more demand driven inflation in the US which can be better addressed by raising rates tight in financial conditions whereas in the EU there is much more inflation on the supply side which is not going to be helped by raising interest rates so the problem the EU has is if they raise rates too aggressively they run the risk of really not doing much on the inflation side because it's coming primarily from Energy prices which have been driven up by the Ukraine war and at the same time if their unemployment and growth Outlook starts to deteriorate very quickly because their hiking rates aggressively then they're not only going to have high inflation but they run the risk of having to cut rates again much earlier because of Damage Done to growth and employment so I don't think the ECB personally speaking just my opinion I don't think they really wanted to go 75 basis points I think they started out just trying to put some support under the Euro as the recent economic data after the US was better than expected and therefore bullish for the dollar and on top of that the other problem that the ECB faces is at the end of last week going into this meeting which of course I don't think in any way is a coincidence the Russian government turned off already gasprom but an armed with the Russian government turned off the nordstream one pipeline so now there are no gas flows going into Germany which is going to again exacerbate the inflation problem that EU faces and on top of that they've closed it down indefinitely so they haven't yet said exactly when it's going to reopen so all of this is actually going to put pressure on the ECB next week to actually come out with a less severe rate hike and perhaps go 50 basis points and so if they do this and the market is pricing in 75 basis points just bear in mind the risk is to the downside for the euro asymmetrically in my opinion because there is no way that the ECB is going to come out in my mind with a hundred basis points rate hike and surprise to the upside because this is going to cause all kinds of problems so the far greater risk next week I mean look anything can happen you know there is probably a very very very small odds somewhere of them coming out with one percent rate hike but I think it's probably close to zero but far more likely in terms of probabilities is that they come out with a 50 basis point rate hike because of the concerns over not just growth and spreads but also now Nordstrom one and if that's the case you are going to see a very strong bullish Catalyst for the dollar and you're going to see the Euro selling off pretty hard if they come out and they raise by 75 basis points then all their doing is what the Market's already priced in and you can still see the Euro rolling over on that so in my opinion this is the event which is going to dominate the markets next week not just the Euro but also likely the dollar and I do think the bigger risk here is for an unexpected 50 basis points and therefore the biggest risk is for the Euro to the downside the dollar to the upside okay okay so let's have a look at the scorecards coming into this week and the first thing to note is that the pound still has its foot flat to the floor here at -4 so the pound really is the top play in my opinion heading into next week and in fact last week it was the best performer even outside of pound dollar which did well the pound sold off against virtually every other currency and even the Swiss franc pairs we looked at last week but highlighted as not some of the best opportunities but just opportunities it was the pound that underperformed the Frank pairs as opposed to the New Zealand and the Euro so pound weakness is still absolutely a number one priority heading to next week and it is my favorite play after that it is Long Dollar so again pound dollar specifically to the downside is absolutely something I'm going to be paying attention to and aside from that you can see the other signals you could see here are for the Canadian dollar which has a score now of two and has increased its score its positive score from plus one to two and on the other side is the Japanese Yen which has a score of minus two decreasing its score from minus one last week and as I've always said in these videos those are the best signs usually of setups heading into next week when you have positive currencies becoming more positive and negative currencies becoming more negative now something to reiterate because often this gets lost in the interest rate decision weeks is that the interest rate decisions themselves have the ability to reverse Trends to reverse markets and this is why I often say if you want to be on the safe side look for the opportunities that you see here in the scorecards once the interest rate decisions themselves take place because that's when you will have the least risky setups in the markets which have interest rate decisions that week so at summarize here I'm going to be looking at pound dollar to the downside once again going to be looking at US dollar Yen to the upside this week also going to be looking at pound CAD to the downside and also cadion to the upside they are going to be preferably interest rate decision trades from Wednesday onwards because those pairs are likely to do nothing into Wednesday and then move from Wednesday onwards so if we get a bullish reaction from the Canadian dollar from Wednesday onwards that's your sign to start to look at cadien to the upside and also pound CAD to the downside and the same with the Australian dollar here if we get a bullish reaction from the Australian dollar on the interest rate decision on Tuesday that's going to be your opportunity to then go and have a look at Aussie Yen to the upside for the rest of the week pound Aussie to the downside for the rest of the week okay so let's have a look at the individual currencies before moving on to the markets themselves starting with the dxy the whole way through this I was telling you guys this is most likely a correction and we are headed for new highs and into the 1 0.76 we did take out the 109.76 last week and that was a fantastic move in fact that was pretty much in Forex terms you're August right there from the roughly 105 into the 109.76 coming into this week the dxy is still the only currency in an overall bull market and it's really benefiting from the weakness of the Japanese Yen because any risk-off sentiment is flowing into the dollar as opposed to the end because of the ongoing situation with the bond market in Japan and the devaluation of the N so any pullback in this market is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for bullish reversals into the 111.30 next is the euro in the Euro we did break down and retested the major seven year breakout level of the 1.0375 we are now consolidating we've pretty much gone nowhere one
two three four five six seven eight for a couple of weeks here and so any continued correction or pullback is still only viewed as an opportunity to look for further declines in the euro into the 0.9780 next is the pound now I'm showing you this on a weekly chart instead of the daily chart because I want to show you where we are in the pound we're approaching the next targets at the 1.1450 but this is not a level of significant support in any sense this is actually a major it's the start of a major breakout to the downside in the pound I mean where do we go from here I posted a while ago that I believed the pound was heading to parity I do still believe that we are heading down towards parity in the pound I'm not saying it's going to happen next week but a break below the 1.1450 in the pound is the start of the next major leg down it's not the end it's not the bottom it's the start of the next major leg down in the pound so keep an eye out for a break of the 1.1450 next week because if we can break down below the 1.1450 with momentum and you see all of these buyers who are have been underwater if they bought down here if they bought up here they've already been stopped out all of these buyers or the last buyer here is likely to capitulate once we take out these lows and this does spell some real trouble for the pound and again if we're only just starting to break out to the downside in the pound what does that tell you about the dxy which of course the pound makes up a part of the dollar Index so huge breakout to the downside potentially next week at the 1.1450 I absolutely under no circumstances would want to be long the pound
and it is my favorite short next is the Swiss franc now I believe there was actually a Target down here last week and we came and achieved the Target in the Swiss franc however I think I took this off accidentally I'm not 100 sure but I'm about 95 sure we took out the target here and I've accidentally removed it but either way the Swiss franc is selling off to the downside and last week the reason I didn't put the Swiss franc pairs in Gold even though they had a score of plus two was because they came off of an overbought level for the first time and when you start to see markets coming off overboard or oversold in the scorecards they tend to continue all the way down usually to the other side of the scorecards and this is what we've seen in the Swiss franc and going into this week this is one I'm not really interested in the Swiss franc and you can see it's actually yes it's currently bearish and we're selling off but it's overall fairly neutral especially relative to other currencies like the Euro or the pound so I think patience is required on the Swiss franc pairs they're not a fantastic short relatively speaking because they are still positive in the scorecards but at the same time they're not a great buy I think we could continue down here in the Swiss franc so Swiss franc pairs off the table for me for the time being next is the Japanese Yen the major breakout was below the 0.007945 and we haven't even really looked back here we took out the target to the downside last week 0.0072120 going into this week I am looking for the declines in any pullback is viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts in the end once again into the 0.0070260 next is the cat the cad is not particularly bullish when we look at it
technically but it is the second best scoring currency on a one month forward-looking basis I really would only like to trade the cad pairs next week say cadion pound CAD which are highlights here as two is the best but remember we have the interest rate decision out of CAD on Wednesday so what I would like to see probably if we could come down and kind of double bottom here and then reverse higher on Wednesday that would probably be the best setup to start to look for cadion to the upside and pound CAD to the downside even if don't forget even if the Canadian dollar just chops around and does nothing it will still rise vis-a-vis the pound and the Yen If It Moves sideways and the Yen sells off or the pound sells off you will still see kadian moving to the upside and you'll still see pound CAD moving to the downside if the cad really goes nowhere and the other two remain very very weak so I do like the cad pairs relatively next week but again it's the dollar pairs which are the number one setups currently Australian dollar I did highlight The Head and Shoulders breakout this is the start of a new trend down and I do expect to come down to 0 0.66890 and make a new lower low in this overall trend to the downside that we have and finally the New Zealand dollar also bearish but again not really as bearish currently as I am with the pound with the Euro or even with the Japanese Yen any continued pullback is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for declines into the 0.600 level okay so let's have a look at the market starting with crude oil crude oil does look like a good opportunity going into next week in fact it's one of my favorite I haven't mastered in Gold but it's one of my favorite setups heading into next week outside of these pairs here why because I do think we are going to come down to the 84.49 you could probably put this in Gold any pullback in WTI Crude oil next week is going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish setups into the 84.49 in a week where the Forex pairs might be a little bit choppy because of all the interest rate decisions crude oil I think could be one of the best places to look for opportunity next week next is pound dollar we smashed through the target last week at the 1.17150 we're heading down towards Target Two from last week at the 1.1411 heading into this week pound dollar is my favorite short once again this was my favorite short last week any pullback in this market is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the one point one four eleven as I just showed you the 1.1411 is the major low and if we
break through here there's nothing but air down to the 1.0886 so pound dollar is really going to be my favorite short head into next week in terms of the Forex complex and I think the pound actually is in quite a bit of trouble next is US dollar Yen we took out previous Target to the 140.29 we didn't look at this last week but that was a target from previous videos when we did look at it any correction in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish setups and when I say this I know sometimes people like to say look for a pullback to here look for a correction into this area but but the markets can correct sideways they can correct deep you can never predict in advance how a market is going to correct you don't need to predict those things you just need to react to them wait for the market to correct however the market corrects that's your opportunity to then look for a bullish breakout and that gives you your opportunity to start to look for Longs into the 142.19 next is euro dollar just bear in mind with all of the dollar pairs that interest rate decision on Thursday out of the ECB can have an effect on the dollar pairs but certainly euro dollar I would be looking for a correction what I'd really like to see is a correction in euro dollar perhaps even into the interest rate decision and that would be the opportunity then to look for bearish setups especially if we break down on the interest rate decision like this any momentum to the downside after a correction into the ECB meeting that's going to be a great opportunity to look for shorts once again into the 0.9860 and the final dollar pair is New Zealand dollar we've started to pull back towards the end of the week anyway so any correction like this look for a breakout to the downside and that's the opportunity to start to look for shorts in New Zealand dollar into the 0.6015 so those are my four favorite dollar pairs heading into next week just bear in mind especially with euro dollar but potentially all of them that ECB meeting on Thursday it may dominate the Euro and the dollar next week next is cadien just bear in mind as well with the cad pairs we do have the Canadian interest rate decision on Wednesday so what I would like to see in this pair is any pullback and a correction I'd like to see this Market pull back like this into Wednesday and then on Wednesday when we have the interest rate decision if we get some momentum to the upside that's the opportunity to start to look for long positions into the 107.64 and just remember the objective here is not to trade every single one
of these markets it's to find the opportunities in these markets you only need to trade one good Market each week to make money next is pound CAD now this Market really should be on the top because pound CAD I prefer over cadien because the pound is weaker than the end so any pullback you can see we've broken out of this consolidation over here any pullback towards this area is going to be viewed next week as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next year of support of the 1.502 and the final Market here not highlighted in Gold it's not one of my favorite but pound Frank did underperform last week even though the Swiss franc wasn't particularly strong it was quite weak itself so heading into this week if you are looking to trade Swiss franc pairs I would absolutely only be looking at pound Frank we started to break out so any pullback in this market and the good thing with this Market is although it's not as good in the scorecards it does allow you to sidestep some of those interest rate decisions any pullback in this market is going to use an opportunity to look for shorts into the one point one one one nine so worth having pound Frank in there purely because of the amount of interest rate decision affected pairs we have next week next is pound Aussie we took out the target at the 1.69 180 we do have the interest rate decision on the Aussie pairs here the final Aussie pairs don't forget on Tuesday what I would like to see is if this Market does nothing and then we start to break lower like this from Tuesday's interest rate decision because we get a bullish Australian dollar reaction from it that would be your opportunity Wednesday Thursday to look for a pullback and that would be the opportunity to look for shorts into the 1.6885 so pound Aussie and Aussie and I will be looking to trade only after the Australian interest rate decision on Tuesday so wrapping up the Aussie pairs with Aussie Yen again any correction I'd like to see the market correct first I'm not going to be looking to trade this on Monday so if it corrects on Monday and then we get the break like this on Tuesday morning that's your sign to start to look for potential long setups into the 96.99
okay so wrapping up the video with gold silver and Bitcoin and the first thing here which is very very important going into next week because we have an interest rate decision which affects the Euro the dollar the cad and also the Aussie pairs if you want to try and sidestep that event risk as much as possible crude oil to the downside goal to the downside and especially silver to the downside and Bitcoin to the downside are probably your top four pairs to do that because those markets are not only good setups heading into next week in my opinion but they are the least affected by all of the interest rate decision volatility next week so just bear that in mind because we have a lot of interest rate decisions next week if you want to skip or sidestep a lot of that vent risk I would be looking at crude oil silver and Bitcoin to the downside and then after that also gold to the downside okay so starting with the gold silver ratio we did take out the 95 level and this has led to an out performance of gold over silver or you could say an underperformance of silver relative to gold which is exactly what I've been highlighting in recent videos if you had been short silver as we have been in the weekly Forex forecast and I've personally been trading you would have done much better recently than if you'd been shorting gold I still believe this is the case heading into next week and I'm looking for the 90 693 next in the silver gold ratio next is gold we are coming down to the Target of the 167687 and we did bounce and we're putting now in here A Bear Flag so any continued correction and again perhaps you don't want to trade next week because of all the interest rate decisions that's fine oil gold silver Bitcoin keep an eye on those for next week any pullback continue to pull back in gold is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for shorts into the 1676.87 next is silver silver was a great short last week and we came all the way down into the target at 17.63 almost to the pit that was a fantastic move in silver we have started to correct but as it currently stands this is simply viewed as a correction and any continued pullback the deeper the better because it gives us better risk to reward to the Target any continued pullback is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for shorts into the 1696. our last but not least is Bitcoin I've been bearish on bitcoin for a while in fact all the way down really and this has been a fantastic Market to trade to the short side what we're looking at here is simply a consolidation this is a pause before most likely the next move down and I am still looking for shorts in Bitcoin this was the only Market highlighted in Gold last week which didn't close to the downside negatively or successfully in the direction we're looking for and that's the only reason for that is because the market hasn't actually closed yet I do still think we could come down today or even tomorrow in Bitcoin because it trades over the weekend so any continued pullback in Bitcoin is viewed as the opportunity to start to look for shorts once again you can look first of all for a conservative Target down here at the 17 567.45 which is the major previous low
in Bitcoin but overall I am looking for the next key of support to the downside at 16 492 so Bitcoin didn't really go anywhere last week but I am still bearish and don't be surprised to see this close successfully to the downside by the end of Sunday so that is it for me for this week guys I haven't added in the stock indices this week if you are interested to know what I think go and have a look at the previous videos last week and the week before I am still bearish on stocks and I'm looking for new lows in U.S stock markets maybe we get a bit of a correction next week but I am looking for the declines over this month in stock markets so as always I hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far I want to wish you a fantastic weekend and I want to wish you all the best in your trading next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2022-09-04 21:49