Weekly Forex Forecast (04/04/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Analysis [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having   a fantastic weekend last week we had non-farm  payrolls week and as is very often the case the   dollar just went nowhere during non-farm payrolls  week we went a little bit higher then we sold off   staying within this correction this range that  we've been looking at in previous videos the   good news is heading into this week what usually  follows corrections or sideways moves strong moves   so we could have a nice week on the cards and i  think this week could be a very interesting week   and a good week for trading a quick look at the  economic calendar for the coming week shows us we   have an interest rate decision out of australia on  tuesday so in terms of the australian pairs i am   going to be waiting until after this announcement  comes out in order to trade those and we'll be   looking at those pairs in the video but just bear  in mind we have this interest rate decision next   week because the aussie pairs are unlikely to  move until this event takes place on tuesday if   we scroll down you can see there's not really  too much else we need to pay attention to some   unemployment data on friday out of canada but none  of this which we really need to plan short-term   trades around it's really just the australian  interest rate decision on tuesday you need to   be aware of when you're short-term trading next  week and if we just jump ahead one more week you   can see we do in the near future have an interest  rate decision out of new zealand and out of canada   coming up as well as well as out of the eu all  in the same week but this is not the coming week   this is the following week so it's just to give  you a little bit of a heads up because we always   look two weeks in advance but really the main  thing to focus on this week is that australian   interest rate decision on tuesday okay so if  we have a quick look at the scorecards for the   coming week you can see that the australian  dollar is still the strongest but overbought   and the japanese yen is still the weakest but  oversold and i would not be surprised to see   in this coming week the japanese yen actually  starting to correct further we're going to look at   this again when we look at the markets themselves  in this video so although the australian dollar is   very strong and the japanese yen is very weak we  have a slight issue with these currencies which   is that they have a higher risk of correcting or  reversing because they have got so strong they   are actually overbought in terms of the australian  dollar and you could think of the japanese yen as   being oversold needs to pause needs a correction  in the near term so heading into this week i do   like three primary currencies here in the form  of the new zealand dollar which has a score of   two which means it is bullish so neutral bullish  to neutral bullish strong bullish and overbought   and you can see the new zealand and the cad both  score two they both have a bullish bias heading   into this week and the pound has a score of minus  three which means it has a strong bearish buyer so   absolutely when we look at the markets pound  shorts are my main go-to priority in terms of   my trading plan next week last week you can see  both the pound and the euro scored as bearish and   the euro somewhat strengthened although the euro  is not a strong currency i am still looking to be   short the euro this week but the slight difference  between this week and last week was i did slightly   favor the euro only just over the pound but going  into this week the pound which has weakened and   this is actually one of the best signals you  can get when you have a weak currency which is   weakening even more and vice versa if you have a  strong currency which is strengthening this is the   strongest buy signal you can have on that currency  so going into next week i think the best chance to   make money in the forex markets is going to be on  those pound shorts but we're also going to look at   the aussie pairs with the interest rate decision  on tuesday and i am also going to look at the euro   pairs once again because although it is bearish  to neutral i do think there's further downside   and i do like going into next week euro new  zealand to the downside euro cad to the downside   both of which we looked at last week but they've  just basically corrected i think we're going to   get the follow-throughs that we were looking for  last week now in these pairs this week okay so a   quick look at the individual currencies here  just to cross-reference what we looked at in   the scorecards just to make sure there's nothing  we've missed as i said at the beginning of the   video and in previous videos the dollar index is  just correcting and we got a warning on this a few   weeks ago from the scorecards to say the dollar  is turning neutral you don't want to be involved   in dollar pairs because you could be stuck in  sideways moves for the next few weeks and that's   exactly what we have as i've stated in previous  videos though i do expect this to resolve itself   to the upside and it does look like we could even  start to come up to the next target at the 99.40   next week so as it currently stands the dollar is  neutral but it's bullish to neutral and i would be   anticipating a continuation up to the 99.40 so i  would not be looking to short dollars even though   we have a neutral rating on the scorecards for the  us dollar next is the euro and inversely to what   we just discussed in the dxy i am looking for the  declines overall in the euro i'm looking for this   to resolve itself to the downside and as it stands  i'm just viewing this as a big bear flag what i'd   like to see here in the euro itself is for the  market to come down and if we can form head and   shoulders over in this area this is going to be  the indication that we are coming down towards   1.0744 and this is going to support the markets  that we're going to be looking at such as eurocad   to the downside euro new zealand to the downside  as well so i am looking for declines in the euro   but just bear in mind it's still correcting as we  currently stand but i wouldn't want to belong the   euro next is the pound now technically speaking  you can see this is bearish and just like the euro   we are looking to come down to further lows here  at the 1.2984 and i think we could actually come   down here next week and again this sell-off to  the downside is where i think the best chance of   making money is going to be in the forex markets  next week is those pound shorts next is the swiss   franc now in previous videos i highlighted the  fact that swiss franc was neutral and you can see   we have now reversed higher and we are threatening  to break out higher in the swiss franc however   it is still a little bit early and if you jump the  gun and get involved in these currencies too early   you're just going to end up being stuck in markets  which either move nowhere or they reverse and they   start to flip-flop to the upside to the downside  so it does look like we could be starting to head   higher in the swiss franc but i think this is a  currency for future weeks i'm not interested just   yet until we start to see some strength coming  into the scorecards for this currency having said   that i certainly wouldn't want to be short swiss  francs heading into this week next is the japanese   yen last week we came down took out the target set  in the japanese yen we are still oversold in the   jpy and i do think i said in previous videos we  should expect a near-term correction or the risk   the probabilities of a near-term correction have  greatly increased and we have started to pull back   here from the lows and i do think this is likely  to continue heading into next week because the   bottom is not usually in until we start to see the  scorecards easing up a bit we see the japanese yen   going from minus four to minus three minus two  then you know you started to bounce and we can   start to look further downside so i am looking  for the declines in the japanese yen however   because we've had such a steep move i would not  be surprised and in fact i would expect this to   continue to correct into next week so any shorts  in japanese yen may be a little bit premature next   week next is the cad last week i was bullish  on the cad and we took out the target set   almost to the pip coming into this week i do still  like cad to the upside any pullback in this market   is viewed as another opportunity to start to  further advances eventually into the 0.8128 so i  

do like cad longs heading into this week and this  is really confirming what we've looked at in the   scorecards next is the australian dollar now we  have an interest rate decision which is why i've   highlighted this in blue and what's interesting  is we are very close to the target of the 0.7554   so i question whether we're going to take out  this target and then correct like this in the   aussie because we do have an overbought reading  in the australian dollar just like the yen has   bounced over the last week or so we can also  expect a higher probability of the australian   dollar correcting or selling off to the downside  as traders book gains in this market so i wouldn't   want to be short but when we go and look at  the markets themselves because of this and the   interest rate decision i'm prioritizing the new  zealand pairs and the cad pairs to the long side   over the australian dollar because of the risk  of a correction from those overbought levels   and finally we have the new zealand dollar  the new zealand dollar is still bullish   and really all we've done over the last few days  is correct sideways so i am looking for this   short term consolidation to resolve itself to the  upside and again really just confirming what we   looked at here in the scorecards new zealand longs  next week do look like one of the best plays okay   so let's drop down onto the four-hour chart and  look at the markets themselves starting with crude   oil i am still bullish on crude oil crude oil  is just very volatile this is why you're seeing   the market kind of going up and down up and  down but i am still bullish and any continued   correction in this market would be viewed as an  opportunity to start to look for bullish reversals   into the 109.98 now if you don't watch trade oil  as it currently stands because it's too volatile   that's fine in terms of derivatives of crude  oil the canadian dollar is also benefiting from   this and this supports the long canadian dollar  bias that i have going into this week okay so   the first pound pair we're going to look at this  week is pound new zealand this was a short from   last week and we did come take out the target set  at the 1.885.90 and that was pretty much the low  

of the week in this market heading into this week  i do like this market once again to the downside   and this near term bounce is simply viewed as a  correction as an opportunity to short at a better   price and what i'd like to see is any continued or  deep correction and then a reversal lower is going   to be the opportunity to start to look for short  positions down to the 1.8732 next is pound cad   now pound cad was also a short we looked at in  last week's video and as the pound weakened from   minus two to minus three we did have really nice  sell-offs in these currency pairs we took out both   targets to the downside and we finished the week  right at the second target here that was pretty   much the low of the week the bounce we've had  is now being viewed as a really nice opportunity   to look for shorts once again in this market and  any deep correction just gives us better risk to   reward to the target and i'm going to be looking  for any brake lower in this market is going to   be viewed as the opportunity to once again look  for shorts into the 1.6197 next is pound aussie   now pound aussie was a good shot from last week  as well we did come down take out the target set   heading into this week this is my third and final  pound pair that i like to the downside but we have   to take into account that we have the australian  interest rate decision so what i'm looking for is   to specifically trade this on the interest rate  decision or after the interest rate decision i   should say what i'd like to see is any pullback  in this market and this is going to be my number   one go to interest rate decision trade for the  australian dollar if we get a bullish australian   dollar from this meeting if the market starts  to correct and then we get this on the tuesday   we get a steep sell-off to the downside of  breakout to the downside i'm going to be looking   for any flag pull back correction in this area as  an opportunity to go short down to the 1.7220 once   again just remember i'm only going to be looking  to trade this after the interest rate decision on   tuesday and only if we get that steep sell-off and  a big move to the downside first on the interest   rate decision if we get that i'm gonna look for  the pullback and then i'm gonna look for the   secondary move down to the 1.7220 next is euro new  zealand now the euro is one of the three weakest  

currencies we have the japanese yen the pound  and the euro the problem is though the japanese   yen is so weak that it's hard to short going into  next week which really leaves the two best shorts   as both the pound and the euro last week i was  looking for the declines in these markets i was   looking for a correction first and then further  declines well we got the corrections so we go back   to the scorecards and say okay is there a reversal  here are we actually seeing some fundamental   strength coming into the euro for example or some  fundamental weakness coming into the new zealand   and the answer is no we've seen a small  strengthening of the euro from minus two to minus   one and the new zealanders held strong at plus  two so all indications are the highest probability   move here now in this market is for this to roll  over to the downside so any continued pullback   in this market this week is simply viewed as an  opportunity to look for bearish reversals down   to the 1.5667 don't sleep on the euro shorts next  week even though it's only -1 in the scorecards   because i think there's a very high probability  we come down to these targets in the euro pairs   next is eurocad eurocad was a market highlighted  last week to look for a pullback and then further   declines to the downside well we got the pull  back so again we'll look at the scorecards there's   really no change here the cad has held strong at  plus two so all indications are the probabilities   are this is going to roll over to the downside  this week so it's really a continuation of what we   looked at in last week's video so any pullback in  this market once again is simply viewed as another   opportunity for anybody not already involved to  look for short positions down two if you want to   be conservative you can look down to the previous  low but the next target to the downside is 1.3523   next is your aussie now your aussie is the  second interest rate decision setup i'm going   to be looking at and again this is going to  be based off of australian dollar strength   from the meeting so what i'd be looking for here  is any pullback in this market into tuesday and   then we get a strong sell-off from the meeting  and then perhaps we start to correct and then on   wednesday thursday friday i'm going to be looking  at shorts down to the 1.4431 so heading into   next week my four favorite markets are pound new  zealand pound cad to the downside euro new zealand   eurocad to the downside i think those are the  four best opportunities to make money next week   and i also like pound ozzy and your aussie to the  downside but we have the interest rate decision   out of australia on tuesday and so i'm only going  to be looking for opportunities in those markets   after the rba meeting on tuesday and the  final aussie pair we're going to look at for   the interest rate decision is a bit of a bonus  chart here it's aussie mex and this is because   the australian dollar is oversold but i do have  a bearish bias on this market overall so if in   the event we get a weakening of the australian  dollar rather than looking at pound aussie or   euro aussie aussie mex provides an opportunity to  trade this in the other direction and what i'd be   looking for here is this any pullback into tuesday  and then a weakening of the australian dollar   off the interest rate decision that would be the  opportunity to look further declines into the 14   79.70 and last but not least we have EurUsd i  cover EurUsd every single week however for the   last few weeks i've noted this is not one of my  favorite markets because the dollar is neutral   and the euro is kind of bearish to neutral so  we've just been correcting we are struggling to   break the 1.11210 and i believe that this is going  to be a sign here that we're going to come down   in EurUsd i am looking for the declines and in  fact i'm just viewing this as a large bear flag as   it currently stands what i want to see in EurUsd  is i want to see a break out of these levels over   here if we can come down like this and we can  break lower next week what that's going to do is   it's going to set up EurUsd not for next week  but for the following week so if we can come down   and break the lows over here like this just as we  looked at in the euro itself any pullback in this   area is going to be viewed as a right shoulder  and in this situation we would more likely see   the dollar scoring stronger in the scorecards  or the euro scoring weaker and that would be   the sign not next week but perhaps the following  week that the opportunity is now coming in to   look for further declines into the 1.0781 so i  think patience is still required on euro dollar  

it's not in my opinion the best place to make  money next week okay so finishing up with stocks   gold silver and bitcoin but before we move on  stocks just a very important note we did look   in the economic calendar we have four interest  rate decisions coming up in the next two weeks   i do believe the next two weeks are going to  be a case of really preserving your capital   and picking the best trading opportunities so you  don't give back all of the gains from last month   where we had these big moves we had the japanese  yen sell-off the aussie rallying because a number   of these markets look like they're probably  going to correct over the next couple of weeks   as we have these multiple interest rate decisions  and if you think about it as well this is the   first two weeks of the quarter where you can see  markets kind of correcting into place so i really   do strongly advise over the next two weeks to  exercise caution and if you made really good   profits over the end of the last quarter try to  rein in that desire to try and take more out the   markets because we're probably going to have to  thread the needle somewhat over the next two weeks   and once these interest rate decisions are out and  we get through the first two weeks of the quarter   you're probably going to really see some  direction coming back into the markets   okay so looking at the spx last week i was bullish  on spx but bullish to neutral i did say that long   positions are the preference but they are slightly  risky because the overall trend is still to the   downside we are actually as it currently stands  this should be considered a bear market bounce   and so any long positions are counter trend  which i said last week we did take out the   target set at four five eight one point seven  eight going into this week the market is still   bullish but when you look at the internals it  does look like we're going to reverse to the   downside at some point in the near future spx is  still structured to the upside and any pullback   technically would be viewed as an opportunity  to look further advances into the 4733.77 if you want to trade the index then that's  what i'd be looking for i personally think   it's going to be a good idea to sit on  the sidelines over the next week or so   because the internals of the stock  market are pretty bad and i believe   that there's a good chance we could start to  roll over to the downside in the coming weeks   i'm personally in terms of the indices themselves  going to be sitting on the sidelines and watching   but if you really want to get involved i would be  on balance looking for further advances but if you   really want to get involved the market is as it  currently stands still structured to the upside   in a counter trend move next is the nasdaq again  we took out the target set last week it is still   bullish but again like the spx it is counter trend  so any pullback would be viewed as the opportunity   if you're looking to trade this four break to the  upside into the 15 507.98 again i'm personally   going to be sitting on the sidelines not going  to be trading these counter trends to the upside   next is the dow jones the dow jones didn't take  out its target but we did start to move to the   upside as highlighted in last week's video it's  still in a counter-trend move so any pullback   would be on balanced view there's an opportunity  to look further advances into the 35 594 however   i'm going to be sitting on the sidelines as i said  and when we look at the russell next which is the   leading indicator almost of the other indices  you're going to see where the u.s indices really  

are at as it currently stands so if we look at the  final u.s indices which is the russell i did say   last week i was just kind of sitting on the  sidelines waiting for more information to come in   and you can see we traded into the target set  at the 2107.08 and we failed to break out of   here i've highlighted in previous videos the  significance of this level and the fact we are   now sitting right between this key breakout  level to the upside in this case and the   bearish reversal level there is no reason for me  personally to want to get involved in the russell   you can drop down and look at some individual  stocks in the russell if you want to trade during   the week but the russell itself i think the best  thing to do is to wait if we break above the 2107   because you can see this range now contracting  that is going to be the sign if we break above   here with momentum to start to look for bullish  setups and that would be bullish for stocks   but what i think is most likely to happen and i  could be wrong which is what i'm going to wait   to see i do think we could end up breaking down  here in this kind of head and shoulders pattern   and that is going to kick start following moves to  the downside so either way in the russell the next   time i want to be bullish would be in this area  after this kind of a breakout and to be bearish   would be on the downside after this kind of a  breakout in this area so no change in the russell   in my opinion it really is right in an area  where you have to wait and see what the next big   move is going to be and the final stock industry  we're going to look at is the nifty as we always   do every single week and the nifty is currently  bullish and i do like bullish opportunities in the   nifty over and above the us indices the us indices  are actually kind of neutral whereas the nifty is   actually setting up as a good long opportunity  to the upside i am looking for the 17 879.1  

if we pull up the scorecards for the indices you  can see that the nifty is actually the third best   long to the upside after the nikkei the asx and of  course the nikkei here one of the reasons this is   scoring is the best opportunity is because of the  inflows or the projected inflows that we're going   to see into the nikkei because of this severe  devaluation of the currency so certainly if you   look at other stocks the nikkei to the upside is  one thing i'd be keeping my eye on but you can   see the problem here is that the spx is just kind  of neutral and this is why i'm saying to you look   technically these are bullish but i'm going  to be sitting on the sidelines i think there   are better places to look for opportunities and  u.s indices are kind of at a wait and see point   so i really want to ask you guys a question and  let me know in the comments what your thoughts are   i think it may be time to bring the stock side  of this analysis up to date in the same way   we look at the forex markets and i'm thinking of  potentially even doing a separate video for stocks   where we look at the best opportunities long  and short in terms of the indices instead of   just covering us indices and indian indices every  single week because if there are no opportunities   in the u.s indices or in the indian stock market  we're covering markets which are just kind of 50   50 and at the same time we're not covering markets  where there might be very good long or very good   short opportunities so i am thinking over the  next few weeks of changing up the stock side and   looking at the best long and short opportunities  each week so that the content is more actionable   for you so you're always looking at the best longs  and the best shorts rather than just looking at   the same markets every week whether they're good  longs or good shorts so let me know what your   thoughts are in the comments but that's what i'm  thinking making those changes to the content over   the next few weeks okay so wrapping up the video  with XauUsd XagUsd and bitcoin XauUsd has been   very volatile very much like crude oil because  of the ongoing geopolitical events however we are   starting to form a head and shoulders and it does  look like we're going to come back and retest the   one eight seven seven two four so i'm not super  bearish on XauUsd because the overall trend is to   the upside but it does look like there's going to  be a near-term counter trend move and especially   if we get that rally to the upside in the dx  y we looked at at the beginning of the video   i think the retest or the sell-off down to  the one eight seven seven point two four   is the most likely move next for XauUsd so any  pull back and we actually have not just a head   and shoulders here but we're just about to form a  mini head and shoulders within the right shoulder   so any pullback would be viewed as an opportunity  to look further declines into the 1877.24   next is XagUsd again i'm not super bearish on  XagUsd but short term next week i do favor shorts   over longs and it does look like we're already  starting to break down here so any pullback in   XagUsd is going to be viewed as an opportunity to  look for bearish setups down to the 23.72 and last   but not least we have bitcoin now we did take out  the target set at the four five six four nine and   we've been highlighting this move to the upside  into this target for a few weeks now i am still   bullish on bitcoin overall however if we are  going to see a move to the upside in the dollar   say we see gold and silver coming down a bit  i wouldn't be surprised to see a correction in   bitcoin first so any pullback in this market is  going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for   bullish breakouts into the next kia resistance at  the 48 523 so that is it for me for this week guys   it does look like opportunities are drying up  somewhat across the board as we start to see   some currencies oversold some overbought to  a correction we're seeing stocks just kind   of meandering right at if you take the russell  for example a point where it could go either way   and so i do think over the next two weeks the  markets are going to start to resolve themselves   and we're going to start see direction in the  markets after the four interest rate decisions   over the next two weeks so i do think only picking  the best opportunities over the next two weeks   is a very good idea and then once these  four interest rate decisions are out the way   and opportunities come back into the markets  it's going to be time once again to put a foot   on the pedal so that's how i see it guys as  always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank you to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next week   the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget trade safely

2022-04-04 00:04

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