Trading In Fear Based Markets
fear-based trading okay fear-based trading so when the market goes into fear what do we do so a couple of things to remember okay when there's panic in the markets right when they're whether it's due to virus or government intervention and everything's on lockdown or anything like that the market freaks out okay when the market freaks out when i say market freaks that means i mean the general public okay who and when i say the general public okay i want you to understand one thing this is not the day-to-day person who was going to a job getting a nine to five salary coming back and then spending all that money into living right and then back to the job back to that paycheck back to the job back to the paycheck and no other life outside of that i'm talking about people who who have savings who have a surplus and they're starting to look for what to do with their money to start growing that little nest egg that they've been you know that they've been building up right or they've been saving up so these are the people who are generally a little bit higher earners and they're generally a little bit more savvy when it comes to money because they have the basic understanding of how do you deal with money they might not be experts at money itself but they might be at least better than the average person of i know how to save i know how to survive i know what a rainy day means and i know how to grow okay okay now it's it's you you can say it's almost controversial so that means these guys must be boring they don't know how to live life no i i can get that i can get that but no that you know you got all kinds of people on this planet right so so a lot of people who are investing because when the market goes into fear like this they're worried that their money is going to take a hit so a big majority of that people who are investing are looking for now what do i do with my money because everyone is panicking okay so you turn on the tv and you see more people buying toilet rolls imagine as an investor who's put in money into certain economies they might be sitting there thinking people are buying toilet paper rolls in masses that means we are in in the gutter okay we're in trouble okay if they're thinking like that they're going to start going into a risk off scenario which means pull the money out of aussie pull the money out of new zealand pull the money away from canadian dollars and put it more into a japanese yen or a gold or a swiss franc area so the money still stays alive instead of putting it back into the bank you know banks might close or or the money the aussie itself might get devaluated so much that you know when you convert it back you're like i got nothing left it's horrible so by putting it into a safe haven you can at least control the downfall okay so it doesn't mean you're you're you're you know turning it around and saying okay now we make tons of money but you're controlling that risk so the the the people who are investing they're aware of this to a certain extent okay so now having that said what does that mean for you as a trader okay for you as a trader first of all you know we i discussed this a little bit in the webinar watch out from the panics okay you have to be careful and and not panic okay and the reason why i say that the reason why i say that now think of this as a as in in general in real life right you see a person you say hello to them they say hello to you fantastic this person is right here with me he is a normal human being but if you tell if you tell a person you say hey man how's it going and that person says michael buble shoes forks kitchen you might be thinking is this guy out of his mind is he crazy what's wrong with this guy because he's living in his own world in his mind okay it is not the reality of right now so having that said what when when a person is thinking about the past of his life and suffering today or he's thinking about what can happen into the future and is suffering today this is a person who is living in his mind about the past or the future that does not exist right now okay a person who is suffering from something that does not exist we call psychosis okay and the medical terminology that is a mental person right but in this world that we live in it is and also an acceptable state which we call panic okay so i want you to always stay calm and i'm not saying do not panic do not stalk i'm saying observe with the calm conscious mind and and really watch what's going on to understand you know what do i need to do how do i need to prepare and think a little bit bigger picture okay as traders you guys are already good at this you guys are just gonna raise the level a little bit more to your conscious level being a lot higher than everyone else who's pulling out their hair saying oh my goodness oh my goodness oh my goodness it is those peoples who always get stuck onto the wrong side of the market unfortunately right it's even though they have so much knowledge to back them up so much history to back them up they still their emotions get to the best of them last minute and it's not just trading right it's in everything in life so the market is just a representation of human emotions on repeat it's on repeat that's all it is as long as there's human players into the market you will see that human factor repeating over and over and over again that's why you have a 95 5 percentage running stably at all times because you cannot run away from that human element now the only way around it is if you're aware of the human element and you get onto the other side okay this is not a strategy this is not a technique this is just pure awareness of what is happening to the people this is how fake outs happen this is how traps happen this is how you know it's a cell inside of a buy happens you know if you're in the iconic trader program this is how a set one set two happens it you know i can go on and on and on for this so now bringing this knowledge and this idea into the trading world so now you're here and you're watching you're observing so panic goes into the market you see it on bloomberg you see it on cnn you see it on all these things and you're like okay the information you're getting is now objective it is not a a debate panel between left and right saying does this mean when the president said this this could mean that and the other guy saying no i think it means that now it's become a reality tv show okay it is no longer based on facts right now of he said this period okay and those people who take it into an extension of that could mean would mean should mean you know it's become a reality show now based on what is his or her own fears versus the next guys his or her own fears right it's a battle between fears when in actuality what's actually happening in the real world might be completely different right so that's the beauty of all this that's the beauty of all this there's nothing wrong with it but if you calmly observe the markets tell you something similar so let me take you on to the whiteboard here so let me draw some stuff here for you okay let me move my screen down okay i am down here hello down here under on the corner all right so let me first do this all right so can you see my circle okay i'm hoping you said yes so great great great job okay now let me start drawing this up for you so if you see in tandem the aussie okay the new zealand oh i'm really good at drawing this today okay okay i just screwed it up by saying it okay the aussie the new zealand the cad okay if these currencies are going down and you see the yen the gold okay the gold here's the ticker for gold xau okay gold and you know swiss francs if you see these in sync generally you know these ones going up those going down then you know the markets are in a fear-based state now what does that mean well how what do you need to do to prepare to turn a profit from it right to to where do you how do you as a trader get involved into this safe haven out of commodity pairs idea to be on top of it so let's say you're a trend pullback trader right so here's a trend here's a pullback and you are looking to rejoin the trend for the sell side if you get this kind of setup in a fear-based market make sure you are not going against these in for a cell do not do the buys on them in a fear-based market watch out for that okay no buying and no selling on this on these particular pairs so having that said let me give you an example so you want to do for example aussie yen for a cell okay why aussie yen for a cell because aussie is a commodity pair okay okay so that should continue to go down and yen will get strong so if you're looking at this currency pair a downward market means yen strong and a downward market means obviously weak okay so having that said this thing will now go down now having that said what do you do in this fear of based markets you need to learn a whole new trade management skills you don't get a market like this this happens like you know only a couple months in a whole year when you get flowing markets like this you do not get out at your normal support and resistance that you would normally do you know okay i'm going to get at the recent low i'm going to get out of 50 fibonacci i'm going to get out at you know you know 61.8 percent or so on and so forth your traditional way of exiting i want you to extend it out even further okay because the markets are in flow okay when they're in flow like this they go they go that's why traders are now switching their strategies and going more momentum based and actually milking out 100 200 300 pips in a single go one with stop losses of like 20 30 40 pips only okay so they're getting some massive risk rewards that is you know two trades is making their year not a month the whole year it's making that much profits okay because it moves that far with less hesitation okay so if you get stuck doing something like for example aussie new zealand and you want to trade that during a fear-based market you're going to have some issues doing that even if you have a technical setup you're going to have issues doing that because they're both commodity pairs so if you're trying to sell it you're basically saying i hope new zealand dollar gets strong okay that's generally not going to happen you know if if it is risk off markets okay remember risk off means they're afraid of the market they don't want to take a risk to make money okay a risk on means economy is healthy again let's put some money in microsoft let's put some money in google let's put some money in cryptocurrencies blah blah blah you know we're looking to put some money into multiple places to take that risk to make more money okay a risk-off scenario is i don't want to lose money does that make sense okay i don't want to lose money so that's how the market mentality shifts also another key thing to remember during these times is when you have a risk-off environment your fundamentals will get overrun i'm not talking about your fundamentals like when you're eating on a dinner table do not put your elbow on the table i'm not talking about those kind of fundamentals you know don't talk down to your parents no not that kind of fundamentals i'm talking about fundamentals as in the economic calendar okay so when you're looking at let's say euro news was really really bad okay you can trade that that's fine but if you're trading that for example euro aussie you can know you're going to run into some trouble if you want to sell that okay because aussie is going to give you a tough time so if you have any news that's good news for aussie or new zealand or cad chances are they're going to get overrun okay they might bounce a little bit but then they might continue the overall the weakness trajectory so during these whole times any small good news okay another thing to remember okay so you can you can mark them out as pointers so another very key element to remember is when the market starts to trend down right like aussies going down new zealand's going down cat's going down and you're like okay aussie yen new zealand yen caddy and i wanna i wanna just sell cell cell cell cell as it's going down any sign of good news a research or a drug that's being in being developed or there's some good news or the numbers of deaths or viruses have reduced or a breakthrough new vaccine is being made you can be sure that there is people who are willing to go risk on to bring that market back into float so whenever you're in a downward movement and you're you're doing momentum trading so here's one thing to understand here when you're doing momentum trading it's all about this the markets are going down it goes up a little bit and you're like i'm going to hit it again and it goes down it goes up a little bit i'm going to hit it again and it goes down here's the thing one good news comes out it'll bounce like this it'll come up very very aggressively very very aggressively and then it will take some time to digest all this information okay even though it market wants to go back down it will take some time before it resumes and makes new lows so remember whenever there's a good information it can bounce hardly against you and you can't look at that as oh that's my pullback cell why isn't the cell working so why isn't the cell working cell why isn't the cell working okay by the time i got up to here well all the profit i made is gone okay so you want to be careful of that and and remember when you're momentum based that any sort of good news is gonna have a sharp sharp pullback okay and when it has a sharp pullback to resume the momentum it needs a big a bit more of time okay so we're actually in that phase right now of we are doing this sideways momentum and now the world is still on standby the numbers are reducing there is no vaccine yet so the numbers are reducing good news okay the the world's on lockdown good news but then a vaccine is still not ready yet bad news people the numbers are people getting infected are are still on the rise bad news there's news about china not reporting the right numbers bad news so there's still fear is looming around into the markets so whoever is more looking for okay i think i think we're good they're trying to hit the buys but the big money is not hitting the buys quite yet until they know for certain okay because they need to you know go back up from all this down move it's done so it's going to recover very quickly once a good news comes out but we don't have good news yet having that said the markets are still going into a downward spiral okay downward spiral so so keep these things in mind so to recap it all when you see these pairs in sync the aussie the new zealand and the cats getting weak and the yens and the gold getting strong know there is fear in the markets okay the markets are in risk off situation okay they don't want to take a risk they're scared okay and in those pairs you want to see if you get your design whichever way you trade support resistance fibonacci you want to stay on the sell side for aussie new zealand cad and the buy side for yens so that way you can make the most of it and practice to understand am i in a nice flow of momentum where i can hold on to that trade and make more than i'm used to making okay so i want you to not do this live check it out look back on your charts re-study it do some back testing do some forward testing before you take it live onto your account don't just be like okay all right tomorrow i'm gonna go do this live you know be very careful because like i said any small movement it can spike back up very very hard and that movement up can be a couple hundred pips as well okay so now we are in a transitional phase and when we're in a transitional phase just know that it is still looming for the downside because we don't have good news yet but if a good news comes out i wouldn't be surprised if it goes down a little bit gets many people short and then jumps up very very hard so these are the multiple scenarios we're looking at so for the most part i would still say it it is a sell you know me and my team are still on the sell side i'm looking at this so december january and most of february a fantastic month fantastic month early march also was pretty decent and then it started to slow down a bit the whole month of march started to slow down but december january february like you know fantastic moves purely speaking from the financial markets perspective this is what traders want okay and many people complain that oh my goodness it's moving so much it's what we need movement trader's job is if there's movement i want to get in here get out here make that profit in there for a sell side if it goes up i want to get in here get out there make that profit on the buy side when you have a market moving like that the chances of you being wrong in the way you're trading lowers as long as you're going with the overall flow okay so now however way you enter based on your own strategy whether it's moving averages fibonaccis macd rsi pivot points you know you name it chances are all of these guys are start are going to see some profits but remember of the risk of as long as you're making that money that's fine just be careful of any slight good news bam you know move back up so stay on top of news events like on bloomberg stay on top of new sites but make sure you're only watching objective information okay so the fundamental data came out and they're saying euro is very strong today that's objective news okay because the gdp got a lot better that's objective you cannot fight that and say no that's fake no it cannot be fake it's it's done it's a done deal it's set in stone now done so you want to look for objective information and not information of well she said on the news panel and then he said on the news panel and then they said on the news panel and then they interviewed one guy on the street and he was like you know the world is ending and then the next guy on the street like no we're just you know we're good we're good we just need more toilet paper no so you want you want to stay away from all that stuff you want to look at objective clear to the point information that's like done it is official from the government or from who it's signed it's sealed done okay now how does that react into the market and then you plan accordingly okay you plan accordingly all right so i hope this entire session was useful your i hope you are you were able to look at this take it to your charts look at them try to understand you know why aussie yen has moved a lot you know if you look at all my instagram videos that i've shared with you guys all my live trading for the last three months it's hardcore something yen right it's hardcore something i made a ton of money with the yen's you know it was very very great you know it was extremely smooth and and easy to handle okay so it was very very busy times so now that things have slowed down a bit we're doing the webinars again so getting back to talking to you guys as well so spending some more time but it was great to see many of you guys yesterday a thousand plus people showed up it's a wonderful feeling a lot of names I recognize a lot of names and you know i know it's a it's a time that you're at home your family's at home too and you want to spend some time with them and i really appreciate that just because you're home doesn't mean you have to attend these webinars but the fact that you chose to attend the webinar already means a lot you know so i you know i appreciate it from the bottom of my heart that it's always fun for me to see you guys as well and you know one important thing always during these times is it's very easy time to get lazy it's a very very easy time to get lazy try to fight that okay so you know so i've read this from a a submarine captain okay i don't know they call them captains i think they call them captains a person who was running a nuclear submarine a captain for that ship he talks about isolation and stuff and he and he goes you know he talks about having a routine you know when you're in isolation you want to have a routine you want to do cleanups you want to clean stuff and you want to keep a schedule and keep building on your skills you don't want to go obsolete right and you don't want to put on bad habits during this you know that's temporary quarantine that there is you know whether it extends or not extends that's not the point you know whatever extends another six months it's okay let it extend what you need to do is understand are you still growing are you still bettering yourself whatever the situation might come right you know our grandparents never lived with technology we do so we adapt with technology you know so whatever the new thing comes we know how to adapt we're in that generation of we went from no technology to some technology to 100 technology so we are in that generation that we can adapt we know how to adapt can you thrive now that is the opening question that we always give to our students at urban forex is i'm not asking you to do just the bare minimum can you be the best you can be okay so do that raise the bar for yourself and for your family and if you have family in your house with you they will look at local look at you and and take you as a leader by example okay you don't need to tell them make sure you do this make sure you do that and no one listens to words these days you want to show them by example you know so i hope you guys are keeping fit as well you know and and staying safe that's the number one concern please stay safe whether it's a small issue for you or a big issue for you regardless your health should be important so you know be safe and you know do what is needed to be done to stay safe all right guys so that's all the time i have for for right now i wanted to make this webinar short and to the point so it's not an hour long because you had those two supplementary videos as well so going forward i'm going to make the webinars like this i'm going to make two small supplementary videos and then the webinar itself so we can interact and talk to each other that'll be like 40 minutes long and again for the major announcements for those of you who did not know actually tomorrow is going to be the private webinar for the iconic trader program not tomorrow meaning april 3rd 2020 okay i'm saying the year because i know people are referring or emailing me saying hey Navin why did you take that poll back by on on this video and then i look back at the video i'm like that's like you know 2010 i'm like oh that's a long time ago like i don't even remember you know so so yeah so again stay safe i will see you guys in the next webinar and those of you guys who are in the courses and in the programs i will see you guys in there growing doing what you have to do to get better because this is a very very active market and i hope you guys are at least staying at home and enjoying the process of making some money and ordering on amazon there you go there you go right so that's the beauty of it so a lot of people are fighting to stay and talk about do i have a job do i not have a job and you don't have this concern you're a traitor so you know another thing to be thankful for it's a blessing it's a blessing your job just got more interesting actually so you know you know appreciate it and make use of it and grow right don't just use this time to netflix and binge so do it on the weekend all right guys thanks a lot that's it for me for now bye for now cheers
2021-05-07 03:25
