Technical Trading Did The Stocks Begin The Next Leg Down Or In Consolidation For A Move Back Up
good afternoon everyone it's chrissy at solsticeatr you can find us on the web on twitter instagram discord as well as if you like this video hit the thumbs up and subscribe for free we use adaptive algorithm for trading side market up market down market with no bias remember we're not a broker dealer past performance does not indicate future results use at your own risk and data may not be copied unless you request it from the website or give us a jingle at the following number up right on the top corner of this powerpoint presentation second slide what i'd like to do in this week's video to cover the nasdaq 100 and part of the smp and the different sectors and the etfs to give you an overall view what the outcome is in the coming week has the stocks made another leg down to continue lower or is it regarding interest rates inflation to be rebalanced and that fear goes away and we rebound back the most important thing i want to talk about the nasdaq 100 i picked up the top 10 holdings in the nasdaq one of them is apple microsoft amazon tesla alphabet which is google google and google uh platform which is facebook now it's known as meta platform class a costco and broadcom which is a v g o so what we want to do is cover those sectors i put them all together on one chart to show you on the weekly we retested basically in this area the august lows but i mean august area and we continued higher we tried to retest above but we're holding the 50 we were closed a little bit underneath the 18 simple moving average which is the midpoint for the bollinger band let's go to the next slide and what i wanted to do is show you every time that there is a drawdown usually in april this is historical numbers from history remember we just look at history as a reference point we do not use it as an indication of entry or exit what i want people to understand we look at the historical facts in relationship what can the future do for us but we just have them as reference points looking as far as you know the 1982 all the way to 2022 but i went back in history and pulled that data off the s p 500 from 1917 1974 87 97 98 2002 you know after the tech bubble the twin towers the real estate bubble i'm just going just a little closer now the european zone and the 2009 after you know the 2008-2009 you know real estate bubble where the returns were after five years as well as the 2020 the situation that happened in february uh 19 through march 23rd and eventually we reversed and continued higher we're showing here march 31st 2020 in relationship to the overall market looking at one month as far as two years outlook we do not have here you know three or five years yet but an average you know drawdown and average draw up we can see that the medium average rate of return after two years was 43 so we don't have to be biased we're going to look at the short term as well as the drawdowns like in 2008 as well as you know to 1998 as well as five years outlook in 1997 looking at the market as an overall indication i used here the spy which is the fortune 500 company electronically traded fund let's go to the next slide here i am showing the vix which is the fixed the market volatility index that shows the people's emotions and feelings in relationship to the trend options you know the breadth of the market but i put the annual fit from high to low we can see where the annual high was to the annual low of last year in relationship where we looked above this here a couple of times and eventually we fell back in we are above the 50 simple moving average on the weekly bar we had a you know an undecided candle we looked up and we failed back in if i take this on a daily basis we have three candles that close the last three days a little bit lower on the vix does this mean that the market gonna find a balance to continue higher we have to look at the overall etfs with the overall sectors in the market to understand where we are in the relationship develop volatility and i want you to take a snapshot read this in just a little bit more smaller details in relationship can you know the future activities of other traders relevant to the charts in front of us what i mean trade what you see in front of you don't be biased to either side we we trade what's given to us on daily basis weekly basis monthly basis quarterly basis annual basis as well as you know outlook three years on a weekly or a monthly chart you know looking at a five ten year history in relationship to where we are today so at last i want you to if you like this video you can hit the subscribe button on youtube you can find us at solstice and you can get in contact with me at that number right here axel is a private uh uh hedge fund well as well as a solstice atr is a private uh algorithm trading platform that we use to help us trade the overall market let's go first of all by taking a look at the annual chart i put here all the combination of the four but i use the annually daily chart instead of the weekly that i showed you this shows us where in relationship where we look back in february low as well as you know the january martian we rallied up and we fell back down halfway we are sitting at the 38.2 fib as well as the 50 simple moving average which is my yellow line if i right click on it it'll tell you what is that study it's the simple moving average 50 day it's it's put in yellow to give you an overall view to what oops i got a box here i by accident i have the letter boxes here it tells you where the moving averages in relationship to the bollinger band which is the 18 simple moving average in the 116. we are underneath the 200 sma we are aware of it on the daily chart but we are holding the 50 simple moving average on a combination of those 10 instruments that represent the nasdaq 100 so let's break it down first by taking a look at the small cap rty on an annual chart and what i want to do is condense it on the micro we're going to go micro 2 okay so everybody can see what i'm doing and i'm going to go down to just an annual chart instead of a daily chart two year outlook so we can see a little bit more in relationship to where we are today we can see that we created last year in november an annual high then we fell back in you know in uh december we consolidated in the distribution at the low end we tried to come back in relationship to this consolidation we had all last year we looked above and failed and came back in it we looked up we fell back in but we have to be open-minded to change in the trend oops i keep using this i'm gonna need to change this to show the channels right here we're gonna connect this one to here to see where the highs and lows are in relationship to this wedge here in relationship to this one right here we can see that we are in the linear regression channel we failed this one we are touching the 61.8 from low to high you can see where the low is to the high here we are at the 61.8 we're a little bit underneath the 50 and the 18 simple moving average does this mean we can continue a lower possibility but if we end up reversing and coming back up pay attention to what the charts offer you i'm going to use now the micro ym which is the dow joe industrial average we can see that the annual high was created in january and eventually we fell down in january rallied back up in february fell back down in march and rallied back up in april we had to look up and we started to come back in but we are holding the 50 simple moving average we close right just above the 18 simple moving average can we clear the 200 sma create like in the shoulder this is a head is this going to create a shoulder because we bounced off right on that linear regression channel or do we continue lower we have to pay such as apples part of the dow chevron is part of the dow caterpillar so we have to pay attention to what the market is offering us in relationship to the trend that we are in a downtrend pay attention to the 18 do we fall back you know 10 percent if i draw a line from this high here just going to about that's 5 if i go down 10 this is about 10 percent draw down where we can fall back in but does it doesn't have to we can just call you know five six percent and continue back higher or reverse back from the mean so let's take a look at the micro enqueue the nasdaq 100 or the qqq that represent those 10 companies that i posted earlier and what we want to do is basically look at that nasdaq 100 we are in a linear regression down channel we looked up we double topped here you can see we had three tops here they are almost very identical and we fell back down we're holding the 50 simple we just slightly underneath the 50 simple moving average and fibonacci 38.2 does the 38.2 hold us to
continue back up or do we fall back down to the 61.8 in relationship to that move up the top and i can take a look at looking at it going up five percent going up ten percent in relationship to going down ten percent or going down to a five percent and reversing back from the mean so let's take a look at now uh btc uh micro btc micro b t i believe micro bt we can see that the uh bitcoin was trying to clear the 47 215 you can see here on the micro it's uh 210 on the large one it's 215. i said to everybody pay attention to this number in case we look up and fail from it we had fallen back and we are holding on the daily the 50 simple moving average we are between the 18 and the 50 if the 50 is going to fail we look to the back side of this channel to see if we can get support because this is an advanced decline line when we pushed higher and we had the 51 000 that we needed to fill this area there's a small gap on the large one that it shows its hands on on the on the micro it doesn't show its hands because of this wick here we pay attention to either the 50 simple moving average if it doesn't hold the 61.8 fibonacci would be a very important
area to hold or we're going to fall all the way back on the micro to about the 30 000 range 32 000 everyone's looking at but in case we do reverse back to the mean to 200 smas right on top do we reverse back to the mean and going back to refill that double top here where we fell down from that gap on btc let's take a look at cl crude oil we can see oh i'm going to use the micro so that way we make we save ourselves a lot of you know micro cl on the micro cl we can see that we were in a linear regression up channel on the fear of the ukraine russia we rallied up we came back to test the 93. we had a double bottom right here um last two days ago on thursday and we pushed up on friday a little bit but the 50 simple moving average in this back side of this small channel that we came out of that symmetrical triangle you can see we had a small symmetrical triangle we fell under it does this mean we hold and continue back to the upside we have to have no bias other than trade what the charts offer us this is very important in trading that we don't end up on the wrong side because if a crude oil is going to come back down you know taking out of the reserve is not going to solve the problem because only you know we use 20 million barrels a day you know that money that the barrels that they took out is not gonna last us nine ten days so they have to figure out between the european russia ukraine you know the oil in the middle east opecs british petroleum chevron to come up with a solution to bring the prices down all those prices are going to stay up we are underneath the 50 simple moving average in the 18th and if we fall up we're going to pay attention to that 88 area as well as the 76 to hold us up because this is the way the area we consolidate we rallied quite a bit we're coming back to this area does this mean that 88 87 hold this possibility so pay attention to crude oil unless it wants to reverse back from the mean because we can create a channel from here to here you can see we are in that triangle and this one we can re-adjust it i'm going to remove this one remove this drawing i'm going to redo it so the computer grabs the correct fibonacci is on i mean the channel declines in upline we are in a symmetrical triangle but we're in a lower distribution in case we clear the 18 once again and the 50 sma pay attention on crude in case we reverse back from the mean let's look at the micro gc which is gold i believe gold on the daily charts trying to baseline to create another move higher after the figure that we had this was in the linear regression up channel we came out of that symmetrical triangle we looked up we failed couple times eventually we broke up on the fear from the russia ukraine we are baselining here is very important to pay attention to the 1960 768 area in case we clear this area and the 38 we look back to the 61.8 bib on micro gc or gold gld or gc which is their original gc which is the futures for the es i'm showing no micros because i don't have too much noise on them or too much fibonacci that way it'll help you see the levels a little bit better um let's take a look at here at aapl in relationship to where we are you can see that apple created three tops looked above failed but we're holding the 50. amazon is a little bit under pressure holding the 50 simple moving average it just tested it closed right on a little bit under it we can take a look at a broadcom av gl we can see that it is under the 50 simple moving average as well i'm just going to go through them just slightly very fast facebook which is meta first i tried to look up remember i called last two weeks ago in the video hey in case we break above this channel pay attention if we look up clear the 18 simple moving average rally up we rallied quite a bit in the last three days we fell back in but we are holding the 18 and 50. if this is going to be
across to becoming bullish and the 18 takes over we can see facebook clearing the 140 24 and eventually 256 and eventually back to the part of that gap here that we we can clear we can fill partial gap if we fall back in pay attention to the 61 and the 50 fibonacci here 61 is looking around the 205 area 206. so that's facebook let's take a look at google do one instead of the regular a i'll do the regular a class instead of the c shares we can see we looked up we failed we're underneath the 50 simple moving average trying to retest the 61.8 pay attention to this channel in case we get a u-turn back up let's take a look at after google we can take a look at cosd which i did not do that's costco it's gone in annual high we had this adx sprint from way back telling us hey we're going to go up to here and it's been there for a while eventually we tested it in the last two days we tested 50 does this mean it can continue to the top possibility but if it falls back below the annual high and fills this partial gap pay attention not to get caught in costco because you know it's a distribution it's got all the products that people need for their home goods or you know technology consumer products staples i mean it's got a variety furniture i mean it's it's an overall diversified portfolio so pay attention to costco such as amazon let's take a look at the last one tesla in relationship to the electric cars you know i don't like the product itself elon musk is a genius but the most important thing is paying attention to the levels and i had this open cone for a while look where it retested and fell back down we're holding the 18 and the 116 sma and we're above the 50. does this mean tesla it may test the 116 simple moving average in a 38.2 f3 possibility pay attention to that 38.2 in case it comes back to it in reverses back to the mean or do we continue lower last but not least i wanted to do um uh one of the like caterpillar to show you where it is because it is part of you know consumer you know developing roads construction and stuff like that caterpillar or john d or d e but remember the chains are a little bit more broken these days or home depot you know for the real estate you know products manufacturing you know rebuilding the property or re you know uh rehashing it i mean basically fixing it up and putting it back in the market does interest rate cause a reaction in those instruments because we are in a linear regression down channel we went to an annual high and we eventually fell below the 50 and the 61. 61 and the 18 is very important
to clear this channel to come back to the 50 fibonacci in home depot that's why i kind of wanted to show it is to tell you hey don't be biased let's take a look at a couple of etfs x lk which is the technology sector you can see how it fell below the 50 simple moving average xlv which is the healthcare we are on an annual high we looked above we closed above it pay attention to the health care sector xlf you can see where we are in relationship to the financial sector and interest rates xle the energy sector is almost on an annual high looking at a basically 200 percent move from the low to high because if i double this extension this was the annual high if i double it you can see the 61 the 78 and 100 is actually up here we barely have dust it tested it they could take a look at the xlp this is basically the consumer staples we can see we created an annual high in xlp tnx interest rates because i want people to pay attention in relationship to the interest rates bearing account the treasury index 10 year we can see it's spiked up quite a bit from 11 to 27 dollars up here sitting more than at a 150 percent higher than where it was before in relationship to the ie f the ief is a seven to ten year you can see where the bond par value has fallen quite a bit more than 200 percent of the move because if i duplicate this field i'm going to show you how to do it um duplicate the drawing and if i drag this down all the way my line or the zero line that's my hundred percent we're just going to average it out to show everybody where we are below the 200 percent average that we would have had in the fibonaccis we are way below pay attention to what interest rates and what the policies are in the federal reserve board if things are going to change or is it going to drag the market a little bit more lower or not um this is very important that you pay attention to these things we're going to go back to the s p 500 i'm going to go on a daily chart i'll put the regular one up which is not the micro i'm i'm gonna show where we tested basically in the extension we looked above that area and we came back down what i want to talk about is this area here the 44 the 45 80 the 44 i'm sorry the 44 85 86 area we looked above it we tested it and we fell back in the range where we broke out of the prior two weeks does this mean that 50 sma gonna hold the 4400 4200 because the possibility in fact they can look at this high here and i draw a line back down to five percent this is a five percent draw down which is about 4 400 if i'm going to get a 10 draw down this would be about right almost there we're almost there just trying to get it as close as i can so we're going to be a little bit below the 116 sma which is around it's just around here the 41 65 area but it doesn't have to fall all this way remember we have the 38.2 feb we got the 50 simple moving average we got the 50 uh fibonacci the 61 and the 50 simple moving average to hold us up in case we clear that 18 simple moving average we'll look for the back side of this channel and eventually up here so don't be biased to one side trade what the charts offer you and we can have a linear channel going back up here to read that's showing that we are in an uptrend unless we lose this trend and we lose the 18 the 50 we look at the 38.250 once again 61. trade what the charts offer you don't have a biased opinion i hope this video was very helpful to help you see the overall market and look forward to seeing you on discord at our website if you'd like to join our group you can check us out be safe take care over and out enjoy the spring break
2022-04-18 16:32
