Technical Trading Could The Bullish Window Be Closing Or Setting Up For New Highs 04 16 2022
good afternoon everyone it's chrissy from solsticep atr what i want to do happy easter to all i hope you're enjoying your long weekend i know i'm going to try to keep it short and brief and sweet this week because everybody's out with their families and loved ones and their friends you can find us on solsticetr on twitter under chrissy farah instagram as well as the discord you can dm me that's my id we use adaptive algorithm for trading bear market bullish market side market remember we're not a broker dealer past performance does not indicate future results use at your own risk secondly if you need to copy this material please request the information from our website or you can get in contact with us if you like this video hit the thumbs up let us know how you think about it at the same time it's the weekly free video for everyone that they can see the outlook for the coming week what i want to do is start today by think telling you is this bullish scenario or window getting shut down on the bulls or do we continue higher in the next couple of weeks due to the inflation interest rates that are the government increasing their rates in the last 10 the 10-year notes you can see them in the seven years starting to nickel up around that three three and a quarter percent so we have to pay attention for the from the 2008 2009 and 2003 how far interest rates have come and where we are today in relationship after the covet the run-up on where we are going to be in the global markets for the net this year and the coming year outlook where we're going to be so let's first start by taking a look at the bullish window that i talked about and once again happy easter i want to talk about two things using a bollinger band and a fibonacci always the bali gem band is like an elastic band there's a midpoint in it that midpoint is usually the 18th simple moving average it hugs the candle either above or below if we are above the 18 simple moving average the direction is lower until you cross it and come back up i know it's a little bit lagging unless you use a faster five-day simple moving average instead of an 18 but it gives you the direction to stay bullish or bearish on a daily weekly chart in relationship to the overall market secondly we can use a fibonacci which is a sequential it allows you to see the golden ratio what i want to do is talk about you know the zero in the hundred you can see the low for the year and the pri the high for the year from 2007 2008 all the way until 2021 where the highs were in interest rates on the 10-year notes have declined further and we can see they are coming back to that 50 range in the fibonacci at the same time catching up with the 200 simple moving average from 2009 2008 we have not broken this channel until we recently and you can see it on the charts so we'll cover that in details a little bit later but i want to keep it brief we're going to cover most of these indices and some electronically traded funds where we'll get a better idea where we can be for the next coming week in the market let's go to the next slide and what i want to do make sure after the video hit the thumbs up subscribe you can freeze this this slide to make sure you can get our number as well as the website if you need to get in contact with us let's first start by taking a look at the combination of those three instrument s to smp nasdaq and nadal i got them on a weekly chart going as far as you know maximum out till about 2003 where it shows us this scenario and what i want everyone to pay attention since the you know the 2017 2018 2019 and 2020 this is the covet we had the consolidation between august september october and november we rallied back to december degree in a new height in a january low we rallied high we created end of the year an annual high then on january we created a brand new high for the s p na the nasdaq as well as the down eventually we fell back in is this scenario does this look like the 2008 2009 crisis where we had the reversal interest rate spike was still in an uptrend you can see where that low was created that was like a head and shoulder that's an inverted you know higher lows then we fell back in this is like a double top here on the combination of those instruments we have tweezers here then we continued high you can see i'll zoom in here so you can see what i'm talking about this was similar to a tweezers then we fell down we created shoulder head and this is the shoulder we rallied up we tried to clear those two candles we couldn't we fell back in on the combination of those three instruments well so what i want you to do pay attention to this these two channel in a downtrend while we have an open cone and we are coming to a symmetrical triangle you can see the fibonacci is from high to low where the support and resistance where the 6150 and the 38.2 which is close slightly below the 38.2 does this mean we continue to the back side of this channel or do we fall hundred percent to the to the midpoint of this range in the coming weeks so it may the trend may change and go back up because we have the 18 smas above us and the 50 simple moving average this is what you call a death cross we crossed on the 50 and 18 to the downside on the weekly chart so what i want to do go to the daily and take a look at it on a daily basis what we're going to do go time frame daily instead of maximum we're going to go nine months out instead of a full or we can do a year it's not a big bad deal it'll just candle it will be a little bit smaller instead of weekly we'll go to a daily chart so we can see the overall market on those combinations and we can see on a daily chart we are coming into a symmetrical triangle in a downtrend trying to reverse back up but does this mean this holds in order to continue and come back to this side or do we fall come back to the 61.8
fibonacci ratio which is the golden rule in the market let's take a look at them one by one i'll start with the dow that represent the 30 companies in the u.s um this is the law this is the regular dial i'm usually using the micro dial but what i wanted to do is show you where the annual high was in relationship to the january third and fourth before we dumped lower we continued higher so we're gonna go put letter m on it so we can have a clean chart we can see that we are in that downtrend is this going to create a down channel is this considered a shoulder to continue higher and break out of this channel or do we fall and break the prior channel that we broke out of and fall all the way through the 50 and the 61 pay attention to this level in this area here in case we hold the 50 and reverse back or we hold the 38 and reverse back to the mean to the top side on the micro dow or you can use the dow which is the etf let's take a look at now the rty we can use the micro 2k we can see in the micro tk we were consolidating for almost a year in november we rallied high then in january we couldn't keep this inside this range to come back up and break we fell back in we consolidated in feb march january february march we tried to look up and then in april we fell back in this range does this mean that this channel the midpoint of it we can have a like think of this as a line in the sand between the two linear regression channels high and low this is the low this is the high this is the 50 percent is that 38.2 gonna hold us up or the 61.8 in micro russell or iwm or iwn pay attention to small cap because sectors are rotating from these micro let's take a look at the nq the nasdaq or the qqq we can see that the nasdaq annual highway happened in november then in december we tried to do this is was like a look up failed and we fell back in and the nasdaq lodge cap such as microsoft apple facebook meta google netflix tesla these are the big boys correct maybe there's rotation in the nasdaq 100 and we're going to pay attention to the inflation and interest rates on the 10-year seven-year notes and five-year to keep us in line in relationship to the drawdown and the push back up because if we lose this area the 61.8 and that 13 700 i think
the door will open up to the back side of this area in that regression channel before we can get a bounce in this area because these were the prior may lows of 20 21. so let's go now to the micro es or the spx or the sby on the etf we can see that the uh the s p created a higher low we we cleared that uh 45 85 and 86 we looked above and we eventually fell back in this is our 18 simple moving average we below that middle midpoint on the bollinger band after the rally back up in that symmetrical triangle we closed a little bit underneath the 38.2 from high to low you can see where the machine grabbed it but the 50 is right here fibonacci in the 61.8 does this mean we're going to
come back and retest that 4300 area or the 40 uh the 4300 or do we go as far as the 4200 before continuing back up pay attention in case we reverse back up and clear the uh 44 96 45 11 which will give us some momentum and somehow where this consolidation happened the breakout consolidate break up come back re-test that fall back in retest this area fall back in do we end up re-testing this area or do we continue back to the other side of the range in a small i mean the s p 500 let's take a look at now gc and what i want to do in gold i want to go to a long time frame to show you what's going on in it and i'll use the gld or the the we're going to go to a maximum maximum range instead of the daily we're going to go to the monthly chart so you can see what's going on in gold since the 2008 2009 you see that gold in 2011 13 it peaked up it created a shoulder couldn't clear it it fell back in consolidated made a rounded bottom and here we're making another round the top if you can see if we look at this range here is this rounded top is it going to clear or fall back and pay attention because this is a very imp important area where people try to chase and they get they get caught and you can use the gl d to show you the well what's happening in the overall etf of gold so this is how you look at it i'm just trying to show you we are still in an uptrend you can see that that channel is still up we broke out of this one do we come back and retest the channel to bounce or we do we break and make a new high for the year remember trade what you see not what you think let's take a look at now cl which is the micro cl i'll use the micro cl so that way everybody doesn't get caught on training the micro remember the micro i'm going to go back to the daily chart time frame daily we're going to go back to uh daily chart instead of maximum we go one year and we instead of monthly we go to the daily chart and we can see that the on the daily chart in relationship to that spike up due to the ukraine russia we fell back in range we tried to push up we came back in and due to the ukraine on friday uh thursday i should say not friday uh friday is uh you know it we were off for the high for the easter holidays good friday so we were close so thursday they spiked it up as well as wednesday and tuesday from that double i consider this as a triple bottom with this consolidation we tested it we looked a little bit below and continued higher there's a 38.2 hold to come back in do we clear the 50 or the 61.8 then come back in so pay attention to crude oil and the pricing of crude in relationship to the overall market let's take a look at the micro bt which is bitcoin i'm not going to go through ethereum and a lot of the other stuff we had that 50 51 000 area here we have a small gap we couldn't come back to retest it and i said to everybody at the 47 215 be careful if we look above it and we fail that area we can come back in the range and we can see we are in a linear regression uptrend still but btc has fallen from that 47 200 does this mean it can catch up to the 50 and then 18 sm8 in order to continue back to this side of the range where we can clear the 51 600 in order to continue higher or do we fall back to the 30 000 range and pay attention to that 50 and 18 in relationship to the reversal back up or do we fall back to the back side of this area so let's go to take a look at a couple of etfs and i want to start with the ief which is the set seven to ten year uh treasury notes so you can use the n o t l t o t b t but what i want to do instead of the daily we're gonna go to a maximum a chart so we can see how we are in relationship to that inflation and interest rates accounts out there from 2008 2003 we can see that it was a consolidation in 2007-2008 the bond market was at a very low price and eventually we rallied in 2017-18 crisis then we had the uh you know the covered 19 we had a very high spike then we we almost like double top created a couple was supposed to come back in we didn't we rallied high and that interest rate since they are coming back are they coming to the 50 ratio where there was this consolidate lookout tried to break up tried to break up couldn't fail broke up retested it went back up retested this area and went back up does this mean interest rates are coming to this area and the bond par value of it coming to that 101 100 where it's usually a flat area and we can get a three and a half percent interest rates so pay attention to the ief in relationship to the t and x t n x which is the inverse relationship to the ief and you can see this is the 10-year treasury index we can see that the interest rates from the 2008 2000 area we finally in the 2007-2008 we finally broke out of this channel does this mean it's going to retest that 32 to come back to that 50 percent fibonacci from the high and low to say hey we're gonna have a three and a half three point seven five three percent interest rates of course we can on the short term because things are slowing down pay attention to the prices of homes it will keep you out of trouble last but not least i'll do three more other etfs and one equity we'll take a look at the qqq we can see where the nasdaq is i just wanted to put it up to show you in relationship how far we spiked up and this gives me an idea of the 2008-2009-2013 that consolidation in here before the big rally you can see this area when we came back then we rallied harder does this mean it's making the same scenario here before the u-turn back up because 2022 maybe that in that year where we can solid come back in in order to continue to get a little bit higher we can take a look at the xlk which is the tech sector we're going to go to a daily chart instead of what we were doing earlier on the qqq so that way everybody can see what's going on one year we're going to go to a daily chart we can see that on the daily chart xk has lost the 50 and the 18 simple moving average we have a minor little gap here because of the tuesday look above and failed and on friday the tech sector sold off very hard and these are some of the instruments that we talked about apple amazon google netflix and we're going to look at xlv which is the healthcare sector you can see it created an annual high for the year broke above it and it fell back in the range we have to pay attention to the 38.2 fib in xlv because people still need health they still need to spend money and even consumers still will need to spend four to five percent of their revenue out there in order to survive in the market so let's take a look at the xle the energy sector we can see that the energy sector for the year even if i take the high and low from last year you can see from march january 3rd 2021 till 10 27 2021 this was the annual high before we pushed higher to do a double extension even if i take the fibonacci and i do duplicate this drawing and i'll take the zero line and i duplicate it and move that 100 to that zero line so everyone can see it so even if i put it right there you can see where the two that means hundred percent that's 200 percent higher in the market that's how far we've almost reached in energy sector does this mean there's going to be a slowdown in energy to bring prices back down on the pump and consumer products from electricity to gas to transportation to chip manufacturing to industrial and all of that so remember we're going to pay to the global markets attention in order to stay on par where we are heading to in the future don't be biased on one side because if you get caught you're gonna get sliced in half make sure you protect your capital last last but not least let's go take a look at for example amazon and i know everybody's talking about twitter from elon musk is doing you know the buyout at 41.50 53 billion dollar because twitter thinks this is a hostile takeover he owns 9.2 if he goes up to 15
things are going to change to you know the overall market in the in the [Music] media areas such as facebook metaphase google microsoft they probably don't like this happening to him but he got him in a hot spot so i don't want to go over it this is amazon where we are if you look at tesla does tesla get depleted with is he going to raise the money is he going to take his own money is he going to put the shares on the side or is he just going make a reaction to cause a panic and twitter and eventually sell off or buy it out we'll see what the outcome is in the next couple of days because you can see after that announcement twitter was trying to get back to the top it touched that channel nicely and got a nice rejection this week it's holding the 38.25 does this mean from the high and low on the monthly you can see where the 50 is in order to hold or the 61.8 in tesla let's look at let's do twitter so everybody can see i usually don't want to do too too much because it's a short week t w t or twitter and we can see that twitter after the announcement it spiked up it had that professional gap you can see where twitter is right now in relationship to the price action because it it got pushed up and reverted back inside that range does this mean it's going to fill this gap or does it continue on the buyout to reach that 62 this is a very important you can see that there is a small gap in this area here where twitter can go to in case things change let's go back to the spx or the spy i should let's do the spy before i let go of everyone you can see that the sby is in that downtrend we are inside that symmetrical triangle you can see the highs and the low of this triangle does this mean the 50 holes or the the 430 area is very important number for spy to hold in order to continue higher or not pay attention to the charts if you have any questions please check us out take care enjoy your long weekend happy easter to all take care over and out
2022-04-20 09:34
