S&P 500: Time To Buy The Dip?
ladies and gentlemen keiki here welcome to the weekly update hope you guys had a good day trading on friday market is down about two percent dare on the smb nasdaq did get hit much much harder there down down sammy sierra so 2 000 it's a bloody red day bloody red banks down two percent energy bit two percent biotech two percent healthcare home builders retail emerging market these guys are all down more than one person looks like only sector that's holding up better is the utilities and utilities been pretty adamant this entire week while the you know these large indices been coming down pretty heavily we've seen utilities holding up right uh bitcoin is down about 12 their gold supper miners also got hit notably miners down about two percent there but they did make some move last couple weeks we're gonna which we're gonna be talking about today dollar uh dollar red slightly oil green slightly their treasure bun slightly green also bix popped about 12 there in this weekly update presentation we're going to look at long-term implication of this market we'll understand the big picture the long-term trend of things we're going to learn about is this market ready to see much much steeper in jarring heart sinking confidence crushing correction that might be coming ahead or is this the time to buy the dip and look for opportunities right we're going to talk about that we're going to cover that in this presentation when we stick with spider cues gold and bitcoin it is all coming up right now nine percent correction on the s p 500 here you can see about nine percent correction this is the first time since 2020 right maybe like late 2020 or something first time we're seeing more than eight seven eight percent correction on the s p 500 in 2021 the biggest decline we witnessed was seven or eight percent so right off the bat in 2022 we start january with the weakness and you can't really blame the market for this because market has seen some tremendous rallies since the colby lows of 2020. so you can see that uh currently we're retesting this gap area right that's the area you can see uh back in october right october 14th we opened up this up gap right bulls bear's been just tearing things apart because there's just there's this gap right here fill that gap there's another gap right here just just pushing through thrushing below all these gaps right gaps usually provide cushion but when there are many gaps it's gonna slow things down though it hasn't slowed anything down looking at the daily challenge you know this entire week it's just been going down and down and down and down when the market moves like this everybody panics in fear right even the market is up quite a bit in the last couple years and the market doesn't just so that you know market doesn't go straight up that's where we're staying at right here we closed the day on friday with weakness and uh and that tells us there's tremendous amount of fear just within that that week period in this trading session that we saw from monday to friday so now we're right on that gap area right we've been blowing through all these other gaps and now we're getting a little bit of bigger gap right here this is where i could see uh some support some buyers coming in at the same time that level 438 level is coinciding with that rising uptrend support you can see that right here right july october and we're right in that vicinity and we have that pivot also prior resistance acting as potentially a new support and that's guarding right now 434 which is the level of the gaff deal area so right now this entire vicinity is gonna act as rather strong support and also not to mention i have my fibonacci here you can see measure from this low right from that peak and that's the first level of fib support there so we got triple support in this vicinity at 438 and 4 30 for this entire vicinity here right again we got the rising support that's the purple we got the gap barrier support and then we have the fib right so we have the triple support market came straight down bears are tired at this point i wouldn't be surprised to see a oversold bounce that does not mean that's gonna lead to uh you know what i'm saying all-time highs obviously we need more evidence of that which we will be looking at this market together next week every single day so if we do see a bounce from here what buyers need to you can see all my short to mid are moving average they're colliding in that vicinity they're colliding and they're curling down what we need to see obviously this gap needs to be filled you guys remember when this gap was first opened up was it monday or friday last week as long as this down gab stays open it's gonna make things miserable for the buyers and that's why when that gap opened up right things got really really hectic here so what bulls need to do kill that momentum by getting up and filling that gap and that's a long way kind of at this point 437 and you'll be surprised how quickly that sentiment can change in the market and you thought this market will never ever see this kind of decline will market will make sure to surprise and that's what it does this is what is imperative that you understand the big picture right in the short term there's a lot of fear but as far as overall trend is concerned i'm talking like uh you know i'm in primary term the longer term are we still in an uptrend or downtrend are we not down i'm not talking about short term i'm not talking my last couple weeks i'm talking about you know this entire move right here right because it's not like we we haven't seen a decline like that before we've seen that before and there was that pivot there as you can see prior resistance acting as new soap or and that was a level we talked about this right you see that there's that pivot there i here you know what i can just go ahead and do this same thing whatever i did right here i'll just do it right here again this does not mean that it's going to play out exactly the way it did in november market is insidiously clever and history does not repeat it ryan so market's probably going to do something different there's a support and there's that secondary support right and then there was that a horizontal support and let me do a fib right here so there's a fib right so as you can see this was what how much decline was this it's about it's about this was about nine to ten percent which is very very similar to um what we are currently witnessing right this is about eight nine ten and do you guys remember the sentiment here again this was the uh this was the um pre-election uh month there was a lot of uncertainty and jitteriness you guys remember this we saw that ten percent we made a new all-time highs why did a lot of people and again this was when the market was trading where 300 300 right you can see that we're trading it went all the way up to 350s and 330 320. the market did see that 10 correction right there and do you guys remember the sentiment what was everybody been saying at this level market is unstable it went up too fast too much we need to see a real correction uh the election week uh it's gonna destroy this market all of that right and if you remember my analysis we talked about okay well first of all let's give benefit of the doubt because and first first thing what i said was hey you know what let's uh are we in a downturn or up trend right overall well looks like we got the higher highs there looks like they got the higher lows there so we have to uh you know i'm not talking about the short term but in the primary and the long term right so we were in an uptrend we see about 10 correction right here people are freaking out but what we have is we got that pivot the horizontal and then we got these two supports as you can see right there that blue dotted line right and you know obviously nobody knows i know we we don't know how this market is gonna behave in this vicinity we initially bounced came right back in and then that was it right that was the low and so then this market went from 320 to where it went to 320 to 480 and we have we did not see another correction like this one 320 to 480 and that correction 10 correction we did not see the entire year can you imagine that you thought that was the top right and you missing out the entire year rally the spider went from 320 to 480. what am i saying i'm saying i'm not saying that's exactly how this market is gonna pan out in this vicinity we're currently experiencing nine percent decline just like how we look i want to be fair in my analysis because we're in an overall uptrend and then we're dealing with my fib here we got the gap area and these two supports which is again similar to what we witnessed right here right here september september of 2020 and so many people that there's no way it's gonna go any higher and he did and one other thing that i kind of realized i don't always look at volume but i do like to look at volume when there's a fast decline people put way too much on the way too much emphasis on the volume here let me make the volume bigger so you can see people put way too much emphasis on this you can see you think because we have a you know rising in volume that means uh you know the downtrend is gonna start known a lot of times what happens is a big volume it usually occurs at the low that the reason is because when in the this is how you look at it in an uh in a primary option it's different in a primary downtrend right so in a primary uptrend when you see the spike in sounding volume like this big spike unusually high selling volume like this that tells us that bears are giving it all of its strength giving it all they are pushing it all the way and when all the sellers are there all the all these market participants are scared hitting this exit button what happens oh that's when the reversal comes the buyers who know what they're doing accumulate when majority of people are running for cover this is why market always pulls the majority so i've noticed this guy you know there's this uh high unusually high volume there that doesn't mean it's gonna you know bounce next day or it's gonna reverse right away but it seems like when that occurs that you know what i'm saying this is that usually the especially that that coincides with this pivotal uh support areas that i just laid down for you guys the fib the gap area that that both of the rising options supports and pivot along with this spike of you know sounding volume activities right so razzak is pretty rather similar first of all let's check out those volume right here it's a big volume swag right here volume spike right here volume spike right here and that's this and that's that and that's uh that's that that you see these big volume selling volume spikes turns out to be that low i mean it's right here too there's a big volume spikes right there and look at this big volume spike the selling volume spike turns out to be that low again that doesn't mean it has happened this way some of you might even some bears gonna say this time is different well you've been saying these people been saying for two years straight so don't listen to these uh depressed people because they uh say the same thing what we have to understand is you know trend is assumed to be in effect until it gives us a clear signal that it has been reversed and nobody knows what that means and that's the reason why a lot of everybody missed out this move right so you can see i even hear a lot of people that that uh there's no way it can go higher it went up too fast well you know what at the time uh q's trading at 232 and he went to 400. you missed that entire thing just because you didn't learn to respect the trend so let's not make same mistake here and look at things that first of all we do have a horizontal support right here right we got some of these support levels and at the same time we also have my first level my fibonacci here so it looks like and you got another secondary support right here and here right that blue uh that we've got the purple dotted and the blue dotted there my long-term moving average is also residing in that this so we got like a triple quadruple uh support here and let me draw this in and that's uh that 350 and 340 level and i believe this is a good level keep in mind you didn't have to pick pick the perfect low after culvert even if you got in near the all-time high level right here and that's when cues were trading at 232 even up to 400. that's still pretty nice
gains if you knew how to write this up and there's chances you could have added more in here and here problem with people is if unless they get they can get the perfect low they missed out the entire move not only they miss out the entire move because they missed out the low because they missed out getting in that train because they're so bored what they do is they're trying to short their market and then they continue to lose money while the s p 500 on nasa or the market makes its move and every decline when there's every decline they all think that's it that's it that's it that's it the market must have the big crash my payday is coming and they burned through hedges burned through put options burned through shorts and realized it is nobody's fault but there's a loan not respecting his strengths i get it it was a big decline in covet during covert in 2020 but now you look back what's better trying to short this or trying to go along on that which is better ladies and gentlemen you tell me what's better trying to capture any of the short term uh you know down move or or writing this entirety of that big move so what was this market doing now that we can see now the hands are dealt now the hands are opened up what do we see market was bluffing the market had nothing marketed nothing so if people who actually went all in here or called the markets bluff big payday did come continuously right but in the short term mid term of things that's kind of what i see right here it's it's very very suspicious of this market acting so hard because we haven't seen and i i get it though entire year 2021 we did not see a real correction on the s p 500 you know when we did see a correction it was short term it was a lethargic we didn't see like a straight down move it was like up and down up and down up and down you know what i mean it kind of made there's the complacency was still kind of in the air but with that move that we're seeing last couple weeks here people are waking up they're like what the hell is this going on market is down every single day and dead ladies and gentlemen i feel like as though this market is trying a little too hard let's go to gold here well quick hey we're packed you guys remember when i did this weekly update i don't know like what a month or so not even a month this is longer than that this was like yeah a couple more two months ago remember what i said man life in gold market is tough because it's been in this uh it's been bound by uh you know what i'm saying and quarantined uh you know under this uh this is resistance and knotted to get above it and every single time it's trying to get above it it has uh it you know that tankage occurs and things get very very difficult we're back here again one more time one two three four five six times is this the day is this the time market is ready to make that move break out see i don't know but i'll tell you what you need to look forward to if you do want to see this market getting up what you do need to see is this all right these are lower highs yes lower highs what you need to see is this thing first of all making that higher high higher high and then come down to the resin come up to the resistance you could maybe go up or you know somewhere deficient come down in this car cultivate its own higher low and then establish that uptrend until we see those stats sequences we still have to categorize this market i can't quite say in a downtrend overall right why i cannot not say downtrend overall why because what's the definition of downtrend lower highs and lower lows do we have a lower lows no bulls are doing something we have higher lows so what is that okay what does that mean we got higher lows with the lower high what does that mean market is in move or phase market is building a base this however this does not mean marquette can do something like this and resume with this primary downtrend or in overall or the midterm downtrend it could do that by breaking below it making lower lower high so this is pretty intense here for gold market is it gonna do this or is it gonna do that which one is it going to do you know i'm leaning more towards to breaking out of this just because in a primary term you can see worse on an uptrend and we're kind of basing you can even look at this as a heavy mega bear bull flagging continuation resting panel we don't know but at the same time you must understand that it's never easy sometimes when market feels like you know when the market feels like he wants to be generous it will give you very very smooth breakout but more often than not he'll play the games because when it's been when it's been basing out like this too long so many people are waiting for gold market to either break out to the upside or break down there will be a lot of head fakes there will be a lot of shenanigans just keep that in mind let's go to bitcoin and the video with that so bitcoin continues to see weakness here and it all came about when this gap was never filled you can see right there it is not a coincidence it is not a mistake it is not a random occurrence when this thing tanked that gap was never filled and that's the level where this thing came earlier 2021 we're back at that vicinity it looks like there's a rising pivot right here you can see from here here here and that's going right there that's the level coinciding with the 123.89 that's a gap area so now we're back down to the base that's a neckline if this is going to be a double top that if if you're a bear and you hate bitcoin you want bitcoin to go to zero well that double time needs to be broken act as resistance and then boom right lower high lower low right now what we have is a formation just the formation of what it looks like a double top we cannot say it's confirmed until we see establishing downtrend well um you know if you're one my uh you know traders cup membership is now open for enrollment and if you're wondering about what is k buying what is k looking at what kind of options is he buying what kind of leverage etf has he bought uh fry there this week or gonna be buying this week or what about is what about the value stocks right what about commodities which one is k buying and and preparing to buy is should there be further decline and further opportunities present itself well if you're wondering about that if you want to come and trade with me and get informations and learn all about because if you're sick and tired of trading in and out in and out burning through hedges and shorts and just letting this market bully around and you want to learn how to position trade and long-term invest when i say position trade we're talking six to nine months when i say long-term invest we i mean long-term investing and we're talking several years of holding positions i'm still holding google since 2019 about more obviously during cover lows and 2020 and google did like 70 so if you understand where to look for value like recently i got into a couple coldest stocks that crashed down i'm watching some more which one has a good value to accumulate recently got into some options trades on friday on the indices and so if you're wondering okay which strike price are you buying which expression date how long are you going to hold what is the strategy there all of that and what are you going to where where when are you going to close how long are you going to hold uh feel free to check out traders cup membership at 2tradersclub.com otherwise i hope that you guys enjoy the remainder of this weekend i'm going to come back for you we'll re-assess the situation enjoy your evening and globetrain next week you
2022-01-25 08:05
