NIO Q2 FINAL Earnings Preview! Watch Before 11 August!
Felix here and only a couple of days left until turning so what's with the scary headline where there is an article out calling avoid like the plague and talking about falling profits being predicted the next couple of photos they look at that and this ties and very nicely with what I want to do anyway which is earnings expectations so we're going to look at what to expect what to watch out for what the analysts have forecast things casting rather profit margins and how does the stock move after earnings and how can we profit from that with a pretty simple trade and lots to look at here to be in an interesting one prepared quite a few chats which I will share with you and explain and of course I'm going to answer also the headline and take apart that argument about falling profits always be aware that this is not I can't remember this is only so I tried to keep it light and let's jump straight into it so the first thing actually is the move to head again of Europe TV sales is it a background to the broader market hear what you can see is that not orange line is Crossing above Europe again to add of the world EV car sales you can now see a red panda hear that China is China appear is by far the largest market again 47% or thereabouts Europe's drop to about 38 so this is EU about 38% China about 47 and then the US of A around 12% or so so pretty small part of the Worlds TV market and that's of course why teslas making a big pushing to China and into Europe so that's really where the money is acting as something to be aware of in the back of our minds that this is how the numbers are swinging now what do we expect and what are we watching out for well I should mention that I've just launched a new course which is why income in 14-days if that sounds interesting to you I promise exactly that as it says on the tin and I will teach you how to build a side hustle that will make you passive income very substantial passive income and you can order made that even if you haven't got a business idea I'll give you a business ideas I'll show you the whole thing step-by-step in of course it comes with my 100% satisfaction guarantee that means complete no questions asked money back guarantee to 40% off coupon and that's only for the first 100 people until the course launches in about two weeks so check out the speaking now of what actually is happening with the analysts in forecast so can you see this chat I'll make it big as I can for you so what this shows very nicely is that cute little bastard you see a blue Bar and ended in a purple bar and the blue Bar is expectations so as expectations and then the purple bar it was actually and as these negative earnings numbers per share you want the Barbie A smallest possible so for the last quarter we beat expectations the one before we didn't so this was sort of air and no no that was a good one they were called before that was a good one that was a good one and then 2019 and not really going to go and do because that was a tough year for that isn't really are used for comparison you can also see her down here revenue we had beats basically three out of the last Four Quarters or full out of the last 5 quarters weed revenue expectations so generally speaking nio under promise and over deliver Saturday that's the strategy most companies look at changing the expectation so this chart down here shows us what analysts makeup it how analysts in May projected this quarter and how they are doing it right now so you can essentially see it's moving up with so the Expectations are improving to expectations are basically moving up and that's a good thing right so we are expecting at the moment and earnings per share of essentially tense negative chef no profit-making yet and revenue we're expecting 1.285 billion so when you get the earnings numbers and hopefully you join me for the life call and then you have to have me guide you through the whole thing and it's also lot more so lot more fun as a community to do it together these are the numbers were looking for a we're looking to beat this number so we want the earnings per share to be a tensor 7 central sixth sense on minus that is and that would be an improvement in revenue to beat someone bigger than a 1.285 billion that we've got here over here these are just a summary of the analysis of thinking so they're expecting a 27% improvement in EPS this year is earnings per share and this year is revenue under 24% year-on-year revenue growth so pretty substantial growth there on both counts that's what we are expecting now what is really the exciting part about this earnings call well we kind of know how many cars they deliver deliver we have a fairly good idea what revenues going to be by exciting news is that new announced about a week ago that they are delivering the new bigger and a kilowatt hour battery to every battery swap station and China and that means they've got spares they got lots of them we saw a similar movement in q1 in the earnings they said look redelivered more cars with 100 kilowatt hour battery because nowhere available and that boosted gross profit margins and they didn't quite substantially so much so might have to use my magic pens it moved to properly 11% margin to a 15.7% margin and active that's really like a 40% jump and at the same time even margin stand here also moved very very much and the right Direction imagines our operating margins which tell you how efficiently your company is run and of course we want these to be positive at the moment the operating out of us and not then this is 0.0 what you got there but the gross
profit margins improving quite substantially we would like those two had a habit to in front so 20-something would be ideal I think for this court that might be a little bit much to expect but watch out for this number watch out for this number improving and getting bigger and I think that's again what analysts will be looking for and that's what I'll be excited back and let me just make sure you're covering everything we want to cover here yes that's why I have my cheat sheet and it also makes a little bit more visual for you I have actually shed a lot of the screenshots with our a discord community before they say if you out on there you can see that otherwise cause the picture and then we'll get you there I always appreciate everything over there that's particularly useful and interesting so what's the stuck down his directly now this is one day after so one day after the last earnings call Leo 20 and 3% the previous earnings call it went down 5.4% the one before that - 1% before that thing to get the picture each one was a decrease some words out of 32526 percent and that's important to appreciate for what my next answering question is and that's how can we make money out of earnings people always one that how can you tell if you have a symbol if you had a simple structure price soon as this is your stock chart shows that way then when you come to earnings so say this is your earning sta-rite and hear that it'll be on your chart well what's going to happen while they are they are two options you just about 50/50 either it's going to go that way or going to go this way so if you buy a shirt or even cellar Shiraz I'm sure to share you got about a 50/50 chance of making money so what have we couldn't prove that what if we could make money say if the share price stays in this range the opposite if you have a really volatile stock in this isn't a bullet R32 5% isn't that bad that you have shares which move at 10 or or more percent after earnings each time in which case we might not want to say in this range you make money so if it goes between say at the moment to share prices 43-44 say what he could make money between $48 and save $40 and in this range we make a profit no matter what wouldn't that be a marvelous little bed I think it would be and you know what you can do it it's pretty easy to set up so I've actually done one here in in weibo now we use will use options for this and if you are not familiar with options cos I haven't options course which teaches you that this is a pretty simple one is called a straddle and essentially what you do is you sell a call and you sell a put option with the same strike price with the same share price at $44 and this one expires and a bit bigger for you after taking a snapshot of your booty this one expires one day after the earnings call which is just ideal so I love that because there isn't a lot of room after earning some people to absorb it it's just that change at the moment the share price I think it's 4385 so I'm picking the price at close to that as possible it's $44 and this is what the profit and loss diagram looks like so they add to break even point SE1 here just about 40 and one here and $48 so that's my break even here I'm not making any money but I'm also not losing any money so I'm even here to spare you so my handwriting in the middle are you got this green triangle and that is basically your prophet path so what does it cost me to set this up nothing at all I actually get money for it that's the magic I received this one of these trades I received $393 and as long as by the 13th of August we don't go over by break-even points and it's keeping my margin stride however Downside I should I should make you aware of that there is a theory and Unlimited Maximum lost so if nio share price goes to zero or it goes to the moon to like 1000 within 1 day after earnings in theory Milos is unlimited in reality of course very unlikely to happen so this allows me so the good 10% either way given that traditionally we've always dance a434 5% movements I am feeling pretty confident about this particularly given that we only have one day left I don't encourage you to make these kind of great unless you really understanded unless you have an options for true that is well balanced and the way you can set this up I I do have a full explanation on this if you go to my masters training courses for the back end of the inside of it looks like and their neutral option strategy so we don't care which way ago she goes at the goes down you don't care you want to make money this one's called a short straddle here here it is and lots and lots and lots of lectures on in here which explain to you the whole thing in instead of bite-size pieces so it might be something you might want to consider looking at that you can do this and say I need you want to be straight an extra $90 with a reasonable amount of risk I mean I can also sell this so it's not like I have to wait for this to go negative if it doesn't go up and suddenly 10% I could set a limit here to this for me I probably won't because it's such a short period of time so that's how you can profit from earnings and obviously due works or similar ones for every stock now now now it's come to the headlight of this of this video which was earning warning there is an article out saying avoid me like the plague and me just find it for you if you haven't by the way there is a free course also my website good academy.org and there is a five-part mini stock courses which will make you a better investor so to check it out before I forget to mention it out here saying that near is a popular meme stock and St enda's AMC and sandalwood agree with at all I mean sandal is not a great business but the colours of cash and they sort of becoming a marijuana Holding Company and AMC is just having popcorn right no bearing the same movement and what they are saying is that analysts expect me to decline at a rate of 0.2% per annum over the next five years and that is wrong I just don't understand why they getting that number from him then they have a new as a secret for growth T4 sentiment as possibility stability and so on so let me show you where they get these numbers from so first of all the festival with the earnings per share as you go to something like Cruyff images a free website you can look at earnings per share Expectations for analysts and you can see here for the year we are expecting this quarter than - 9 census I showed you next quarter - 9/10 the quarter after that - 5 sense that's a substantial improvement and in the following year we expected to make profits so they just don't know there's nothing about that but that's just nonsense are there in there even on a gap basis we are expecting exactly the same sort of thing so we ever seen an improvement quarter by quarter moving into 2022 which and slightly Gathering with my My Head On My Shoulder expecting to continually improve quarter by quarter past nonsense and then people look at these sort of financial health scanners things that this website by the way spinboxx misoneism free I subscribe to it and then you've got things like kashflow health you know him healthy profit Elsie relative value and then growth is positive and let me show you why these numbers and not very useful to look at because I've also snapshotted dad down here somewhere here it is so these numbers were just looking at he had shot it over 5-years so what you get here is that the green line here is gone down a green pen the Greenline here is is declined in that price momentum and that means the share prices gone down so no because the share prices gone down a lot of the other things are going up relative value for example is going up because of it right because it's getting cheaper and the underlying part of the company which are prophets are improving we have cash flow health improving very substantially and we have growth weld at the very least being well improving over time by flattening out a little bit yet so everything is positive except for price momentum and that just means the stock got Sheba which means if you like the underline company and you think it's a good business then it makes the stuff more attractive so giving it a poorer price momentum school and then the rating the stuff for it makes no sense because I rather buy a good company at a lower price than at a higher price so I just wanted to say that it is straight to you the pitfalls of looking at some of these headline indicators this chats you much better because it shows you overtime what's going on here so let me see what I've forgotten so you're like a Plague article I think it's just short reporting maybe it's written by a bottle something always that money was asleep and sadly didn't check that fact I would not pay much attention to that at all now make sure you go to my YouTube channel and here are the new nio Q2 earnings for is already up there so what you got to do is hit set reminder set a reminder on and that where you get the notification it's 11th of August in the evening Eastern time New York time so depending on where you are in the world it might be early or late for for you you as I said make sure you join the free mini stockholes and you can see down here that we come in 14-days offer that's only available for the first time the people who sign up to it and I'm super excited about this cause I've been working on this really really intensely the last couple of weeks and it's exactly what I want to do it with lots of you guys have asked for as an you show is Felix out of compound but I need some more income to do some more compounding so whether you want to go on that trip or a buy that house or simply build financial independence and sleep better at night through passive income this is ready where to do it and how to do it in a guide you through every aspect aspect of off this essentially to start with how do you actually find that idea how do you know it is a good at it how you know you can make money out of that idea and how to set up with virtually zero investment and then how to structure your product or business or sales identify your niece satellite prices and do smart marketing how to setup your marketing materials and Andrade your automated email campaigns and advertising and absolutely everything else it takes you through all of it and you could do this in 14-days seriously you can launch a successful side business in 14-days and it can just be that little bit of side money that you love it could be thousands of Dollars could be tens of thousands of dollars it could eventually overtake your existing business or it could grow your existing business or it could replace your existing job or you can do both I love having different income streams I am always a fan of them and it just it's fun it's relatively simple to do and I will take you through an alcohol due to it because I really think for this order things structure is hugely beneficial so I'll give you lots of tried-and-tested templates and guide you through lots of that might mean that my list of great business ideas and so and of course there is a a private members chat group with that you can ask me questions you can ask like minded spirited people and you might think I've only ever had a job and I don't know how to do it but I would like to do it well then this is for you or you might say it yesterday someone said on the list I've already have a bit of an online site business what does help to make it better and my answer is unequivocally yes because it'll help you be smarter about still help you with the automation with assistance with the structure how to sell how to cross sell how to advertise all these things I take you through it without wasting a single dollar you don't need money to start businesses it's a fallacy people always think I need startup funding nonsense you don't that lot of things you can do a just B&Q income and you can then invested so take advantage of this while it is on this 40% discount because I definitely will not last and this is launching in a bad two weeks so that's the period you have to jump in on this you have any questions or drop me a line go to go to Academy Broadoak and I really appreciate you guys for watching appreciate you hitting that like and subscribe if you haven't yet so thanks for watching and see you on the next one had a beautiful weekend
2021-08-09 15:13
