Ninjascalp feat TraderKoz Bitcoin (BTC) Live stream - 07/28/2021 - Much Trading Alpha
yo yo what's good who's getting banned today hey yo my boy dino hey what's up guys thanks for joining early you came in here quick note squad hey that's what's up run run you got the naughty's on i see you boy what year is it [ __ ] i don't even know what here it is it's crypto man how's the chat doing market looking bullish bearish bullish paris but we're going to talk about the price action right now and we're going to see what's good because it was an interesting day today yo the great ninja hey my boy i appreciate it what's up guys hey the chat is live that's what i like to see i like to see the chat chatting man that's what's up appreciate you guys how was the um the music to the mic how is the ratio sounding do i gotta lower the music bearish [ __ ] [ __ ] my boy is bearish in the chat yeah i'm gonna talk about this chart uh thank you bro appreciate it the chat is live right now that's what i like hmm so we'll start in like two minutes so i'm i'm supposed to be having like i'm pretty sure you guys know who trader cause is uh he's supposed to be joining and instinct is supposed to be joining but this nerd said he don't got a mic like what are you doing with your life you don't got a mic so yeah so maybe there'll be somebody joining but we'll see but regardless we'll we'll talk we'll discuss some bitcoin and i have this uh zone here highlighted and i'm gonna talk about it i'm gonna talk about this area but yeah how is the chat doing could you tune up mic volume my system sounds are very loud compared to your voice also your tv alarm sound is very loud it's waking my girl yo i apologize [ __ ] i think my mic is at the highest maybe i could lower the music so i lowered the music just a tad bit how does that sound so i think i lowered the music a little bit too much let me just put it up a little bit is the music too low right now the mic is fine yeah the echo was because i was trying to listen to it um i was trying to listen to it on my laptop i think i think somebody is trying to join hold on let me see okay so i think trader joe's trailer causes is in the house what's good so can the chat can you guys hear trader cause right now what's up guys can you hear me i need to pull up your twitch stream on a different tab hold on i'm gonna you know what i'm gonna do i'ma share this screen into google so it won't lag for you oh for sure let's see let's see this is trader cause guys so it's it's me say what's up all right let me see how do you share your screen in this we can do uh you can call me on discord too if you want oh yeah i could see your screen on that yeah you could that's what i did with uh smfx this morning what's up banana ups what's up predator mikel all right i'm down with whatever though go go to um go to discord are you calling me uh hold on let me see let me try to call you on discord troubleshoot troubleshooting right now guys just give me like two two seconds hold on start voice call yo yeah let's let's close let's close that out all right can you hear me cause yeah i just need to change the output so so can the chat here cause do you guys hear cause yeah all right that's good all right so they here there we go all right all right so share your screen um let me see loud and clear says jackie smoking cause they're here cause all right can you see my screen cause yeah yeah oh wow did i just share the obs are you good you can see it yeah i can see i'm good cool all right so we good all right so how should we start this um i usually start reviewing my trade so i'm gonna ask the chat so do your thing bro do you guys want to see the review of last week's trade that that we discussed on stream or should we just start with the price action now neon skull says in my country cos means joint so that's pretty cool all right they they some people want the review some people want the price action so oh no i'll talk about the price action now and then later in the stream i could do a review um based on the chart we had last week with the trend lines all right so i'm just going to start with this chart right here so so cause i'm gonna talk about um this was one of the trades i took with this chart i'm gonna talk about that and then we could discuss uh we could just discuss whatever honestly michelle how you doing though cuz i'm good i'm good i'm having a dream i'm living the dream man no complaints that's good that's good good to have some volatility so yeah bro it was crazy today all right so let me let me switch up the vibes real quick let me get a different different lo-fi going on make sure to check i hear it make sure you don't have any copyright infringements now we good on this channel this is the all right copyright for all right so we're going to talk about my range that i have for weeks so i think um i think i will start on the four hour time frame and i'll put the replay tool so i could give a quick history quick history on this uh chart alright so basically i've had this range pretty much from like i would say the middle of june so once we topped here i put this level right here at 40. 4356 because when i do my ranges i like to put the price levels at where i see the most reactions and i know some people like to put it at the highs 42 but i just like the the most reaction so my range is 40.3 and i like that area because we had this kind of consolidation here right but once we came back to around 40.3 we rejected once and then we rejected again here around 40.3 so that was a swing point here and then
we came back over here it acted as resistance and rejection right so basically i have 32.9 as my range low and that's pretty much because we had a swing point here deviation here consolidation deviation whatever you want to call it capitulation whatever and pretty much this 32.9 level was significant and i explained it uh in past streams but i'll just give a brief explanation right now so when we form this swing glow here and price bounced to 36.7 which is pretty much near my equilibrium level so the equilibrium is pretty much half of this range so from 32.9 to 40.3 you just get a fib tool just get a simple fib tool and there's do something like that and you get the equilibrium around 36.6 36.7 and these are my two ranges all right so i want to
talk about it now so the first time we broke the range to the downside was right here and the reason 32.9 was significant was because as you can see once we broke it it acted as resistance and once we broke it here we didn't even get to retest it so that's why i like 32.9 versus 33.34 all right so let's talk about on to now so on the last stream which was pretty much the emergency stream right we pretty much had this candle right here and um i remember saying that uh i didn't even catch this move like i didn't even take a leverage position because i was i wasn't even expecting this move to be honest but once i saw this move break right through my equilibrium level that gave me no reason to be bearish but at the same time i wasn't interested to really take a long position until we retest equilibrium so as you can see price pretty much squeezed higher to around 40 ks and then we came back to test it the equilibrium right here and i remember this because i did take a long but i didn't get fully filled to be honest i think i got one third size position at the equilibrium because i remember saying in the last stream we broke out and i'm gonna wait at the equilibrium because if we're bullish we should hold above my equilibrium level so basically you long here and in invalidation would be if price would do something like this you know and start acting as resistance so that's why i pretty much longed and i remember when we was dipping here everyone was turning bearish and i put this tweet out i gotta flex real quick i gotta flex the tweet because i was looking for longs but i was seeing people talk about 32k and and whatnot so basically [ __ ] where's my tweet am i between too much huh me too yeah i tweet so much [ __ ] oh okay this one right here so at 40k all dips were for buying at 36k you are scared and ready to go back into cash and it's pretty much because when price was in this area right people didn't people wanted to buy but they were waiting for a dip so like when the dip finally came every well most people were scared but for me i was ready because one i had the equilibrium level and this gives me a bias so like if we're holding above this level then i'm going to remain into a long position and if we start closing below that's when i would exit the position all right so that's just the history and i did exit the position too early so like i took one third position around 36.8 and i had bids literally like 36.2 36 but i never got filled anyways i took profit on this position around uh 39 and i was actually surprised that we continued higher but let's talk about my plans right now since we're at the uh range high level so first of all i'm not interested to take a long position here and why is because we i want to see us close above this first because as you can see it's acting as somewhat resistance so i want to see as close above 40.4 40.6 and a daily close would be nice but um as for now i'm not interested to long hair maybe a dip but i have to reevaluate so i'll do a chart later but we're still bullish all right because as you can see we have like it looks like it's about to explode to the upside i'm not even lying so what i did was i pretty much hedged my long position because i'm still holding uh some of my lungs from 29.3 on the september 24th future contract so i'm holding some of that long like probably 20 percent of position so what i did was hedge that position and i hedged some of my spot so i pretty much hedged on the 12 31 contract if you guys are familiar with um future contracts so the 12 31 contract is trading at a premium so i pretty much hedged that and basically if the daily closes above this level then i would probably um go back into my spot right away and then consider probably longing a retest but for now i'm hedged and um what i want to see is price start closing above 40.6 and i want to see some this level holding basically
and that will give me a reason to be even more bullish but i'm still holding along and i'm not in any uh leveraged longs at the moment so i'm just waiting and um what else do i have to say i have this zone here because i wanted to talk about this zone real quick so basically like i was pretty much scaling into my hedge over here when price broke out i was scaling in and i saw we dumped and i didn't even take profit because when i hedged i'm expecting to take profit near 36 because my invalidation is above so i didn't take profit here so i'm still holding the hedge and during the fed meeting from what i remember we got this because i was looking at price i was in my bed i was looking at it at 39k i was in my discord talking [ __ ] and um in a few minutes we pumped something crazy so the reason i have this zone here real quick is because if you replay it we had this crazy bullish engulfing candle right so when people see this bullish engulfing candle the first thing they're going to do is mark it long because first of all we're at resistance right so this is the four hourly and this is the hourly rate so on the hourly it looks very bullish like the next hour candle is going to get sent right so what happens next all right we pump and then fail so how i look at this candle from like a psycholo psychological view is like people market along into this bullish candle and currently there are trapped lungs at 44 40.4 and what not so the next candle nuked and basically how i'm viewing it is that there's a lot of longs that pretty much along market so in order for me to be bullish i would like to see the trap longs get relief and continuing by pressure so if i see something like this i will pretty much go back into spot and re-evaluate because um there's probably not much above here except for like 42k so if it breaks 40.4 and holds above then i think we could get 40 42k minimum but for now we hold the hedge and hold some longs and just wait patiently um yeah that's pretty much it for for the price action right now but later on in the stream i could uh i could chart something fresh and look at my other charts but for now we got cause here so i must just see if he wants to uh you know talk about anything so what's up guys you still here or you left i'm i'm still here all right still here don't worry i'm not leaving so what's up what you thinking about bitcoin would you like to share your screen or um do you want to just yeah i can do that all right so might as well hear all the shared on discord with you so let me disconnect wait hold on let me stop all right so all right all right you got your screen can you see it yeah i'm gonna um basically i have to switch it into obs i hope it doesn't mess up wow so like i think i would have to like really so that doesn't make my screen up if we if it's too complicated i can just talk you want to just talk whatev whatever is easier man hold on all right cool i'm good with you let me try something right now sorry if i messed the stream up guys i'm going to try something right now he's going to take a risk i risk it for a biscuit your discord really zoomed in yeah i see that's weird all right so let me see if i could uh if you just click like the screen share thing or whatever and make it full screen then it might all right so how oh wow this is like a bootleg yeah yeah i'm not sure if they'll be able to uh all right so you know what oh what's going on i can just talk all right i bet so just talk i'll try to follow it just oh my god you're good just go back to your screen yeah um or actually here let me uh i like send you two charts or something on discord and then you can just pull those up mm-hmm that should be easy yeah definitely give me one sec so we're about to get two opinions on where where price is going this is interesting that's what and i think they're going to be relatively similar yeah so you got ninja at resistance scared until we close above 40.4 and we about to find out how kaz is playing this let me see if those are the only two all right one more can you send me the wait i think i could copy the link and post it yeah just do like open original or whatever oh [ __ ] when you uh actually can you copy it from your trading view and send me the trading view link or i think those are them but discord just automatically opens the uh opens the uh or like gives a preview if you click on the image though and then click open original it should open it like as a tab yeah it's weird you know what i'm saying yeah this thing is weird so you you you know when you could go to your trading view are you looking and you go on the top right you could take a snapshot yeah can you try to do that oh you could and then copy paste that link oh it's it's putting i'm doing so copy paste it but like put some periods at the end all right there's one does that work yeah i think that's going to be good dang i'm so low iq nah this thing is just complicated for no reason all right so this is his chart so can stream see this chart it's a little blur here you want to do the uh the second one first all right i kind of sent him out of order now because all right it it still is pretty blurry but how does that chart look stream not bad yeah that's not bad so yeah this is kind of the main i got it i got an idea too so we're gonna do this all right so this is this is kind of the main range that i'm looking at the range low is about 31.1 range high is the weekly high from like may 26th so basically if you look at a uh so your range is clean it's not it's not bad so yeah you got that first tap there then we swept the high came down to the low and now we've tapped it again so for me kind of like ninja was saying as well like we are definitely at resistance right now um so it's a little bit of a no trade zone for me i'm not super interested in shorts at the moment i did take one earlier but closed it for basically break even after paying fees because i think it doesn't look quite as bearish when you like with monday's range usually when i see a sweep of monday's high i want it to be like a bigger sweep and we kind of went over by like 100 bucks and now we're kind of just hanging around monday's high i'd rather see like an aggressive move up definitely like monday sweeps you're talking about sorry yeah so i'm talking about a different uh so monday here let me let me send you uh let me send you i think this was the sunday candle you're talking about sunday sweep right here this one no like the that high you're pointing at right now that one was one i just i just sent you another oh okay another screenshot that might make it easier yeah so we took out that high that you kind of just drew on um and i mean there just hasn't been much of a reaction like we sold off a little bit right after but now we're kind of just hanging out around the range high and usually i like to see it make a more aggressive move above that high yeah and we only went above it by like 100 or 200 bucks yeah so for me to get short i would want to see us push up maybe take out that high from june 15th at like 41.3 or whatever like this like really get a
uh yes something like that yeah yeah get more of a spike up and then break back down below and that's kind of the only way so like something i know you want to see your ring tie act as resistance yeah pretty much so that's kind of the main short scenario i'd be looking for i don't want to just short here uh when we tap it i would need to see something kind of like what you drew um and then otherwise if we can break above um it's basically 41 that range high if we can break above that there's nothing really there right right yeah then i think i think it can move and move for a little bit so yeah so i'm just watching to see how we interact with that level if either we spike it again or if we break above and stay above then i'll be looking for longs but yeah it pretty much just all hinges around that 41k level and for now i'm kind of just being patient and waiting to see if anything happens and on the other hand if it does pull back i'd be interested in longing around like that 34 35 k level which the monthly opens around there yeah yeah pretty much right there because this is the this candle is pretty much the one that squeezed it so right so maybe we spiked down dip to the origin of that pump and then get back above the mid range or something and that would give me like a little bit more confirmation and then stop loss would go at the low and then i could enter when it's back above the mid range kind of to tighten my risk so i have a better invalidation rather than just chucking a stop loss somewhere because those two kind of consolidations or slow grinds up like it's just a bunch of higher lows and this one right here uh these higher levels right here oh yeah you know about this uh like at 30 at like no i like 34k and that 32k those okay yeah yeah yeah so both of those like those break up a lot of the time when you get that slow grind up um i feel like bitcoin does that a lot but they retrace a lot of time right a lot of times it comes back and takes out everyone who got long in that zone so i don't know i'm a little torn big picture like i do still think we are stuck in a range unless we break out of like break above 41k right and it's good to see some life from bitcoin it's good to see us like push from 28 to 41 in like six days yeah um that's nice like it like it's good to see it actually move but i'm not convinced like this was the low and we're breaking out of the range now so all right i don't know kind of level by level you think that at some point we could take these lows out um yeah so i think let me send you a i'm going to send you another chart on shortcuts he said agreed it's very unhealthy right i'm trying to see what so a lot of people a lot of people think the move was solely because of um amazon but in my opinion it was just like over leveraged shorts and plus a lot of people off like out of the market so like right and there's no dips given so like so like they kind of fomo back in and you can see the cope on twitter and like you can see a lot of coke from even og's that like are salty because they didn't get the longs down here you can see it just look at their timelines they're bearish as [ __ ] and i can understand it people who believe are it is amazon as news yes i agree with crater yeah so most recent chart that i just sent you you want to open that one up really quick so this is talking a little bit more like macro perspective i guess um and i think let me get i think the low could be in i'm not like ruling that out i do think it's i do think it's possible but i think a scenario like this is a little more likely like we we have like six wicks into this uh 28 29 k region and i just don't know if those are gonna stay there and i mean this isn't really super actionable like this is it's just it's it's kind of a theory it's not like oh i'm waiting for this to get long or something like that i'm mostly i mean i was mostly in spot i've started to sell some because that's just what i've been doing this entire range is buying spot between 30 and 32 and selling it between 40 and or well 38 and 41 give or take um oh so you were out of spot no oh okay i was going to say now you got to be a btc maxi bro i was holding from like 50k bro all the way to like 29k no can't i mean right so here's the thing i've got a like long-term spot bag that i just don't touch and every now and then like i'll transfer btc to that account and that's like my this is my moon bag i'm holding this bitcoin till who knows how long and i'm just gonna hang on to it and then within my trading accounts i will rotate between usdt and so i'll actively trade my spot in my trading accounts um and so like on buybit or whatever i'll convert my btc to usdt or on ftx i'll convert it to usd um so i've kind of been trading that spot bag throughout this region and i um here let me pull up a chart i bought spot mid-june like the 22nd to the 27th when we had that spike down and then the retrace back down to that low that's kind of when i loaded up on some spot um for the third time because i held the first like crazy wick down i held a lot through there my buys were higher than i mean like 29.99 uh so the it's the very first wick down you're talking about the the the one around me in june yeah so for that one my spot buys were pretty trash like i kind of thought i was buying between like 39 and 37 mostly i bought 46k really yeah i mean dude how are how are we supposed to know like it did not seem like it was going to drop this far i thought we were going to fill in the gap from the elon candle on like february 8th and then pop right right yeah so that's kind of what i was thinking so kind of mismanaged that poorly but then i was able to sell some of it after that very first big bounce i don't think i didn't get it quite at like 42.5 i think i sold most of that at like 40 or 39 so like more or less break even but man it was a bit of a relief to get out of that and then when it came down on june 8th i bought around 33.4
yeah i mean you can you can go to your chart if you want because you can move it around more um and then sold that june 15th when we had that really clean sweep i remember we were talking in discord about how that looked like the top and i sold spot and shorted it but then closed the short at like 37 because i'm a weak handed paper boy yeah bro trust me i shorted i know what you're talking about because i did the same [ __ ] bro so like yeah you're talking about around this time yeah i shorted that sweet at like right i bro i showed it 40.3 and i covered everything at 37. i think i closed most of it at like 38. but the nice part was i did sell spot there too and i stuck with that and then bought that spot back between 30 and 31 like towards the end of june and then i've been holding that by ever since yeah this this range is like it's gonna go down in history for sure right it's been it's been pretty nice like i did not catch much of this move with leverage but those late june spot buys are up like 30 now and i think i've closed probably around 40 of it but once again this is like i would probably say like 20 of my portfolio of my like spot portfolio i'll trade um because like i said you're basically leveraging that yeah okay but i mean i'm not like i'll just risk one one and a half sometimes two percent but then the like i will trade from a higher timeframe perspective that spot like i'll manage that spot but i won't manage my long-term spot because it's like when you're wrong when you're managing spot like it's just so hard to get back in yeah like if this if this just rips from here like goes up 20 tomorrow yeah it's like well are you going to buy your spot back at 50 and then it's like if it goes up another 10 from there are you gonna buy your spot back at 60. so a lot of the times i prefer to just hedge with a short because then i have an invalidation i know where i'm wrong and then like if i get stopped out that's fine because you're holding spot pumping right yeah that's that's pretty much what i'm doing here like i'm shorting i think my entry on the um the december 31st future is like 41.5 or 41.6 it wicked to like 42 k's and stuff so it was like yeah so like a nice entry so let me tell you guys something on the reason i shorted that um the futures contract so if you guys don't know um there's the inverse swap which is btc versus usd and then they have um future so they have the the one expiring uh september and they have the ones expiring december so these contracts trade at a premium so december the fact that we're uh bullish right now it's it's even more of a premium than it should be see like we wicked um to 40.7 and it was at 40 point 40 42. look at that so it had a three percent premium right right and i want to tell you guys something because this is alpha you guys don't know but this is alpha you know i always give alpha right so pay attention to this so this contract is trading at a three percent premium over here right at the top because we're bullish and the more bullish it gets the more there's a premium on this contract so when we were here right dude do you want to guess what the premium was on the contract cause like two percent or something oh you're pointing sorry you're pointing down there yeah so we have premium down there so it was like less than one percent over here okay yeah that makes sense and um september was even trading at a discount the september one was negative like one percent that's the legal alpha for loss yeah so like futures contract at a discount exactly so the reason i'm short in this is because three percent premium so like let's say right hypothetically that we top out here and we start going towards 36 so the premium is gonna go lower so that will give me even more um a percent win if we go down on that so that's pretty much my theory behind it and my invalidation on that is very it's very simple like if i see a daily close above this area i'm out i'll take the loss quick small loss and then we continue right we go to the next play so there is there's more alpha there too when there's a really big premium or discount and you can just make a risk-free interest rate yeah for sure like it's it's beautiful like let me see if they even have them here so btc 12 so ftx has their contract all right so ftx see this is what i'm talking about see ftx even wicked to 42.5 look at that so that's like we wake to 40 point
what was spot at so what spot topped out at 40.8 let's say so if you look so from 40.5 or 40.8 that was wow see they have 4.3 premium right yeah and the bottom was 29.7 look at that you see that right so like that's like two percent or one percent premium so yeah it's like something like you could think about if you want to hedge so what i do is basically i'm i'm shorting that contract with with spot that i would want to sell at this level you know what i'm saying so like if i have 2pd 2 btc and i want to sell 0.5 i'm gonna short 0.5 worth at this level you know what i'm saying and then once we go lower i'll just buy it back and i'll earn in btc so i'll get btc even though the price went down so you save you save some type of money that's what i mean by a hedge and like if i see the regular price start closing like this yep i'm out of there see like it's very very tight in validation at these range levels but yeah um right you want to discuss anything you want to discuss anything else with with the chat um if people want to learn more about that they can google contango and backwardation now you're giving too much alpha now bro you you got to chill with that bro gotta they gotta follow me on twitter for now i'm joking it's kintango yeah like he said can tango yeah um i'm trying to think i mean i really don't have too much right now just because i'm more so in uh just wait and see type of mode go ahead so no someone asked a good question how how do you trade breakouts so how would you trade this breakout and then i'll answer how i would do it so like would you even trade this breakout at this point um like what would you want to see price do because i know it's lagging for you hold on maybe let me let me screen share so you so you won't get that lag oh am i screen sharing i think you still are yeah you're good um i would say i mean i would want to see it get above that 40.7 i would say i mean so when i trade a breakout i don't want to see like a and i'm usually trading
like a 30 minute hourly time frame like i'm not scalping a lot like ninja um but i would want to see like an impulsive move out of here to convince me that it's like a legit breakout yeah and then i'll just look for any kind of retrace to get along so if i had to like draw it or give an example oh so you don't ate in you don't market by you wait for confirmation yeah all right gotcha so you wait so i would i would want to see it push to like 41.3 41.4 or something like that so you want to you want it to push all the way you would probably you might have to zoom out a little bit zoom out okay i mean because the top of your screen's like 41 point yeah so like yeah so i would want to see it break above those highs not just instantly sweep it and then get a retrace into anywhere in that region like a break like this right and then you want to right get it i don't want it i don't want it to like get swept or i don't want it to have like a strong rejection immediately i want to see price like actually people say find acceptance but like hold above that level you know when resistance is really strong it's going to smack price down quick so pretty much i want to see it actually hold above the level maybe consolidate a little bit maybe it forms like a low time frame range that it sweeps the low of and then it's like all right there's my low time frame setup in context with my higher time frame idea all right so so you you you play it safely you don't you don't really ape into breakouts much not really yeah i rarely do because like i've done it before and like you could take like quick losses and even like slippers because you have to market into them and like you pay fees so like it's very rare i take a break out but i do take them sometimes and what yeah what i would like is the first breakout so like if i was paying attention over here then i would pretty much long this breakout on july 28th so like we could even look at footprints to see if if we could find some type of uh increase in volume and and whatnot and we could go dive deeper into this so we could review a missed trade because this was a nice little breakout right here you could have took it on leverage and made a quick little profit because as you can see right we wick yeah like this one these weren't so good but even if you longed this breakout you could have you know made some profit because like you want to be in and out if you're going to market buy and you can set a limit bid 100 200 away as bitcoin is coming down that's what i like to see so yeah we're going to talk about this price action right now and then maybe later we can review that trade so so how i look at this price action right and i'm going to go back to what i was stating earlier on lower time frame price action it's basically i'm using candlestick psychology and i love using that because i like to to like try to picture what type of people are entering and i i discussed this so this was the fed candle right here and extremely bullish like i was watching order flow and i was like yep i'm about to get right in my hedge but it's fine so like when you see this your first thing is like holy [ __ ] market buy right and then like i said earlier the idiots i don't want to call them idiots whatever so like people market buying they're all trapped right here around 40.5 and that adds some more confidence to my pretty much range high at 40.3 so i would never load that um and pretty much how i'm gonna play it
is like all right so if you zoom back to uh this price action uh this candle that sent us down i don't really know what happened but that that candle right here so how i look at this is this pretty much broke this whole market structure so if i'm watching lower time frame and i'm even scalping i'm gonna use this candle as as my uh bias it's gonna give me bias so um yeah we dipped i didn't take profit like a noob and then pretty much we broke above it so on this first break if i'm lower timeframe scalping i'm going to have a bull i'm going to be looking for lungs because this candle i was using to give me bias and then pretty much once we close above it on the 15 minute it's going to give me bull bias right so same thing coming back around right as you can see right now we close below the bearish candle and you can see even on lower time frames that right you see the region it starts from it starts from pretty much here hold on right it starts from here and that's going to give me the bear bias so like if if bulls get above here then i could start you know being lower timeframe bullish but as long as this candle that sent us down is holding as resistance as you can see on lower time frames then it gives me a better bias on the lower time frame so i know there's people trapped here right because we talked about these people if we zoom into the one minute time frame we talked about these people building positions too long expecting probably a breakout above 41 or whatnot so we have trap lungs here and then we have the whole shift here so how i'm thinking is like if people is long here where is going to be their stop losses right so like we got to see where they're going to get stopped out or potentially and maybe something like right here right because this is the move up so we can see probably a reaction lower time frames and then definitely below here is going to be a bunch of liquidity you know so maybe i could take some off my hedge or whatnot but right now lower time frame i'm still kind of lower time frame uh bearish basically but that's all for this chart i think i'm gonna move on to other charts as well so we could see um i haven't really been been uh been reading the chat they said what caused you what what caused you on a white ninja i think it was like a what cause you on with me oh oh oh oh yeah just without the people and causes kaz is my boy but yeah that's lower time frame bias um let's go to my other charts and see what we have because i have like a bunch of charts and you can feel free to add anything cause by the way like you want the stream i appreciate you appreciate having you by the way so like if you want to add anything and right now my head is looking good i love it that is it's looking good so like if it breaks your meme line yeah so so this right here right it's pretty much my bias on you know higher type of time frames to give me a bull buyer so as long as price is holding above here then i'm i'm bullish on a bigger picture so if we do come down here right now because this was the trend line from live stream best believe i'm going to be looking to long down here so like 100 i will long uh from 38.3 to 37 and then my validation would probably be we can go all the way back to this candle below this this area right here so that's like what so this is a play from this chart but yeah i'm hoping we're gonna dump because i saw a lot of people getting bullish and i'm head short so i wanted to dump right right cause not really but i do scotty says uh scotty says it's got a similar fractal here on low time frame as we had at the 19k consolidation to all-time high so scotty's probably long based on it at you guys should fight i could feel the long on scotty right now but hey pull up the uh he says no but pull up the daily chart the daily it doesn't all right so yeah on bitcoin oh wow scott is short but yeah that it doesn't so even this daily candle we sfp look at that yeah we took out and that was monday's high right there see look at that that's even yeah all right in the resistance here we go now vino said who's getting banned now nobody's getting banned the chat the chat is good right now so i want to talk about daily sfps so i know we have um i know we talked about hourly sfps so right now i'm going to talk about daily s p because we have one playing out right now and this could be huge this could be huge right now all right regardless of how bullish this [ __ ] looks one two three four five six seven eight and then we have um what is it we have one hour left and they have to do some more selling and we're gonna have our first red candle if asia decides to hit the cell button so we're gonna we may have a first red candle but we gotta see how this time this plays out so yeah i'm going to talk about this real quick do you want to add anything um real quick no i mean i i just wanted you to look at it because i was just looking at that oh yeah bro you bailey looks kind of bearish you gave me some nice now i have a new invalidation bro thank you so now i could hold my short or heads a bit longer and maybe add on to it on it on tomorrow's daily clothes hey i have one i got one question sure how many years until kade cunningham's an all-star um if y'all don't know who kate cunningham is that's a college basketball player yo no cap cuz that's the only guy i watched um in college that's the only guy look he's gonna be a star glory days back to detroit like he's gonna they drafted him well he's gonna be the first pick probably drafts tomorrow and the pistols got the first pick so kate cunningham he's gonna be the real deal because i watched him play he got he got a lot of composure and it's a wrap he's going to be good yeah but yeah let's talk about i like to hear it all right let's talk about this daily i just want to get a new chart and i like to look at coinbase because the other charts can we delete this chart let me see nah these trend lines is wait are these trend lines good because maybe if we do come down here all right i'm gonna keep these trend lines [ __ ] see i have i have problems deleting my charts that's what's wrong with me all right so maybe if we go on this daily time frame we have the same sfp all right cool all right so i could talk about the sfp on this right here all right let me change the color because i'm tired of this dark on dark gary just sent me those two uh charts he's talking about i can confirm it does look pretty similar all right so we're gonna we're gonna look at that next well let's see let's see what i'm talking about here all right so yeah do your thing sfp we're gonna do a whole new um chart on daily time frame and talk about sfp so this level right here right 40.526 new chart that i just saw thanks to cause cause this is uh i don't really look at daily time frame like that but this right here is just beautiful all right so we have this level here on a daily right resistance resistance resistance 40.5 and now acting as resistance right so let's see if we could drag this and get a better daily level come to the downside um this is pretty clean i think i like this level right here what is this 34.6 so 34.6 is a good daily level to be honest that's nice yeah all right now i'd say that's pretty close to where i would uh look to wong yeah it looks it looks really nice when when i look at it because you can see how support support deviation um broke turned into resistance broke struggled resistance and then boom wow [ __ ] maybe i gotta start looking at the daily timeframe i'm not even lying like this is this is so clean right here like if i was a swing trader like this is clean all right so let's get let's get um equilibrium all right so we're going to start here and then we're going to try to get it as close as possible here all right this is dark so we're going to make the 0.5 white
all right so what's that 37.558 all right so we're going to get 37.558 that's going to be our eek 37.558 so i want to talk about something right now because this is going to be my new higher time frame uh bias right now because i might even short now because this is a a valid setup now i have risk risk defined setup here all right so first um we had break up market structure on a daily time frame right here so if you could see we'll start back in what is this march first we have this little daily block right here so price tested the daily block once it held and then we bounced to 60s wow that's pretty nice and then once it came back to the daily block tried to hold and we broke right that daily block level so that is 48 48 ish right there all right broke retest on this daily wick and broke down all right so resistance right and now it finally found some demand in this range and as you can see 40.5 acted as the first resistance we went down to 30s came back 40.5 resistance
deviation resistance and now we are here and now we just sfp that level swing failure pattern all right swing failure pattern right here so now my short scenario now based on causes point out is gonna be my new invalidation is gonna be a clean daily close above this level so now i'm actually going to be looking to aggressively short now because now i have real invalidation all right so i'm hedged at the moment but i'm just going to hold that hedge and i'm not gonna look to take profit on it maybe if we come down to 38 i'll probably take some off the hedge and look for another uh another short basically but based on this daily the setup would be any daily close above 40.9 on finance what is the level on coinbase is 40.9 as well so so now new invalidation is a daily close above 40.9 that's my new invalidation on bare bias short bias all right so the short setup would be something like this when you're taking short i'm already short but if we do bounce higher i'm going to be looking to enter into shorts now and maybe i'll look at the order books and see if i could see some increased volume and if i do see increased volume with with longs opening up then maybe i will just wait too short all right but basically anywhere from 40.5 with you know probably 40 41 whatever you want to put your stop all right or maybe you don't even need to use the stop you can target range lows and you have yourself a nice little swing uh position you could you could target um the demand the one that took us out right so there's many things to target and we can even do a fib from this candle because i do like this candle and let's say this is the top so we have something like that um let's see if i could get better green vibes all right so we have start at a fib level from here and pretty much we're going to say that this is the swing high all right so these fib levels is going to act as areas that we can look to buy some uh some long so this is going to be my new chart thanks to cause so cars you better get into in this trade with me so we could uh flex on it together all right i got no i'm saying because this daily candle we just sfp right and sfp is basically as long as it closes yeah as long as it closes like this i don't absolutely don't think they could pump this [ __ ] in one hour to 40.5 i'll be surprised hopefully hopefully it's a red candle let's see what happens if it's a red candle i think we'll see uh some more selling at the daily open but we'll see what happens by the way i'm still holding spot so i'm still holding a spot position and as you can see we kind of are building a order block near uh near the resistance so this is also something to look at this is a nice little order block we have um on higher time frame four hours so i'm going to mark the 618 because that's going to be important i'm going to draw a little tiny zone at the 0.5 all right and then i'm going to draw a little zone at 37.6 so the this 37.6 level is a 3.82 level and it even um coincides with the
equilibrium on this daily uh daily range level and then we have the 0.79 so this is fib this is fib 101. you you i know you messed with fibs right cause um i'll pull them up every now and then for confluence but i wouldn't say like every trade i take i got yeah i definitely rarely use fibs but for now we're going to use it as confluence because yeah it just looks good for me right now right like yeah that that sweep in the resistance can be uh pretty powerful and work out every sweep is gonna work but when it's right into a resistance level that kind of adds some validity to it for me and also if we close a daily candle above 40.6 40.7 then that's the highest daily candle of this entire range um and that might signal a possible breakout out of this range and then you get stopped out of your one short and you just go back to long everything mode for a little bit up to like 45 whatever yeah pretty much so so it's like very tight in validation and now i'm gonna actually look to short pull backs if we dip a little more but i'm gonna wait because i'm already hedged i'm happy i got a hedge off because if you see this tweet always hedge i love to hedge especially if we have range highs but honestly my levels to target if we broke would have been these levels you know so you know i was in spot two so but we'll see it's still early to call it so we'll see how how it plays out but for now i'm gonna keep the the bear scenario and here's a bull scenario now since you guys think i'm just a bear right now all right so let me just hide this real quick so here's the bull scenario for me right so we had this daily sfp that i just made right now and basically for me i would like to see this you see this little order block here that means people are bidding and whoever is going to win will find out who's going to be the winner i have to check the order books and we got to give it some time so um based off of this order block here in a four hour time frame if we do something like this like if we do pump off the daily and we pump violently and we break highs i'm gonna be sitting here and i'm just gonna wait too long to pull back in this order block all right so i'm not gonna long the retest of the resistance but i'll wait in this order block patiently and i'll probably exit my uh hedge so yeah daily sfp um a daily close above 40.9 would get me out of my hedge now that's my new invalidation 40.9 thanks to cars for pointing that out got you so yeah you want to talk to you you so did do the chat want to ask cards anything since we have them here guys got any questions feel free to ask cause questions because even from from the past couple months just being around cause he's a really good trader very a lot of discipline so like yeah you can talk about discipline because i've been following you for a while and you've been trading you've been in the game for a while right and you probably have you know i would say one of the best disciplines from what i see like talk about that tell the chat like how did you develop discipline because your risk management is clean i don't think i ever saw you get really wrecked right like like me i've lost 20 30 on trades i don't think i've seen you lose that much or maybe in the past but now you're more structured i haven't hasn't happened in a few years at least i think when i first started i would i would like revenge trade a little or do whatever you know it i think the emotions can just catch up to you one other here there are a couple quick ones and then i'll talk about some uh discipline slash whatever stuff uh how old am i i'm 23. um i started trading when i was 18 and a
half 19 something like that nice um how are you so good cause um a lot of practice i guess journaling honestly journaling is the key man like you can't just trust your brain to remember every single thing you see every trade you take everything like that and it just comes down to data like that that's all that trading is it comes down to data especially when you use discretion and it's not like we all try to have a systematic approach but to a certain degree discretion is involved and having a journal having that data to back up um the discretionary decisions that you make i think is one of the most important things in trading like if you're constantly closing all your trades early if you're constantly getting stopped out and then it goes to your target like hey if you notice that a lot if you've written that down in your journal all the time then it's like okay maybe i need to adjust my stop-loss placement if your trade is about to hit target and then it reverses and that just happens to you over and over again you might remember it eventually just based off memory but it'll really jump off the screen at you if you're journaling and you're writing down like what's happening after your trades what's going wrong what's going well everything like that i mean just write down as much as you possibly can and i can really quickly go through a list of what i write down so how do you take a trade sorry to cut you off but how's your how's your journaling these days after you found success are you still like heavy on top of your journaling uh i still am sometimes i get a little lazy but when i do i think i like it reflects in my training yeah like i can i can see myself regress a little bit when i suck at journaling for a while or when i'm lazy with it um one sec let me look through the chat so i don't uh optics ask if we're day trading crypto pretty much i mean depending on the time frame he says he's new to all this but trying to get into it and learn trading yeah i mean that's that's essentially what we're doing that's all i do is they trade bitcoin where are you guys trading futures i mostly use buybit i think ninja mostly uses delta yeah i use a mix of both you know and um we could talk about that later because they are sponsoring a stream oh yeah so let me just say that now since you're reminding me so right so delta they're sponsoring the stream and um i need you guys to use my ref link i need you guys to use my ref link all right i need you guys to use my ref link where's my wrestling at here we go right here that's your youtube i need you guys to use my reference so yeah delta is sponsoring the stream and i need you guys to use my ruffling um they have a lot of uh a lot of coins they they added some stuff you know their ui it needs some work but from my experience no lag orders get filled so i need you guys to use my wrestling and um another thing traitor cause if you guys do not follow him this is his twitter so you guys can follow him he's partnered with bybit i'm partnered with delta but i need you guys to use my ref link not his use ninjas yeah my wrestling not his but um yeah do follow him right do follow him right now if you don't and he has a youtube and he does stream as well so i appreciate you for coming on the stream yeah [ __ ] i haven't even subscribed you didn't even see that but i do watch your videos so yeah he has a youtube and just like me he streams see look yeah you see i watch it whole [ __ ] yeah that's right so yeah so love it that's his youtube and that's his twitter he's one of the most disciplined traders i know very good risk management and usually on the right side of the market so definitely follow him if you don't but yeah um appreciate it continue sorry for tying you off no you're good you're good use my ref link continue my back is it his real profile pic uh what does that mean this yeah he's an eighth he's an eight with discipline all right he has good discipline as an eight oh i for i haven't updated that one yet so that's the ape nft that i bought and then what i have on twitter is kind of like art that other artists made for me that came from that original ape which is kind of funny anyway um yeah go ahead i'm listening oh yeah this is a dope they can make that for you it's like i gotta pay money no it's pixel dudes he just made it for me yeah that's though and then that one was parallax island i think it is so yeah you could continue i think you were up to the discipline part right let me go through this well i was going to talk about the list of things that i write down all right cool trade so i'm just gonna go through it and then like if you guys want i can copy and paste it in the chat or something like that but so first i got the i got the date just kind of that one's kind of obvious and very simple just to know when i'm taking the trades pair if it's bitcoin ethereum whatever coin it is direction long short whatever um position size usd risk entry exit stop loss a chart of when i enter what kind of setup it is so if it's like an sr flip um a mondays high sweep uh four hour demand etc so what the setup is um the reason for entry so in that section it's more text i kind of just elaborate um on the setup um trade manager and i like to have set up in a separate category so i can like through calculate strike rates on i do the same thing you have to do that and then just elaborate more on the specific reason um and then the next section is trade management so like if i take any profit during the trade if i close some early i'll note that in that section reason for exit so i think this is really helpful because a lot of times people exit a trade just because they want to like get their profit out or don't want to get stopped out and you can notice a lot of trends within your reason for exit um so i think that's definitely a helpful section um and then sleep is important sleep is important sleep is important uh result so i write the like r result if it's like 1r 2r etc um a chart of when i exit so i have the entry chart and the exit chart the game loss in usd or in bitcoin if i'm trading coin margin versus uh what do they say coin margin and stable mark usd margin token margin you're talking about the inverse versus the usdt right yeah oh yeah something about that since you mentioned that so here's what happened on this squeeze alpha that he just mentioned so i'm sorry to cut you off but what happened here right in this area so people were short on the coin margin contract which is the usdt pair so they got out of bitcoin and they went into the usdt pair so the difference when you short that and when you short the inverse is that when you're shorting the inverse contract you're holding bitcoin so when you're short as bitcoin is going up your usd value is going up all right that's something to think about because you're holding bitcoin but when you're short usdt which is why this squeeze was very violent you have no collateral that you're gaining on the upside you know so as price is going up you're not gaining anything because you're short cash versus being short the swap and bitcoin when the price is going up you're losing bitcoin but you're gaining usd so it makes your liquidation much harder to hit than if you were shorting the usdt and i know that's going to go over a lot of people's head but make sure you replay and understand that because you can short versus usdt and you could short versus the swap all right sorry but continue you're good you're good um so then i have a emotion section and the emotions that i felt during the trade um and then this section called demon finder which is was something i learned from trader dante i think it's or dante i forget how he i think it's just dante yeah um it was from one of his videos from like 2017 or something like that um and the demon finder is basically like a mistake that you made in your trade whether it was closing too early closing too late stop-loss too tight etc um and then that's a good way to categorize like things that went wrong got too greedy whatever and then when you're like looking through um what you wrote down in that section if there was something then it categorizes well and you can see like oh my gosh i've gotten greedy on five of my last eight trades um or whatever and then a notes section and a follow-up section so usually like a couple or i don't know a couple days later maybe depending on the time frame of the trade i'll do a follow-up see like all right i'll pull up the exit chart i'll look at my chart and be like was it the right decision to exit there if yes write it down if not what could i have done better so that's pretty much it so that's i just i just pasted the whole thing oh i was i was i was typing it as you were saying oh there you go so yeah so that right there um so doing a journal is what will separate a trader from an average trader from someone that is above average because even myself i talked about it before i wasn't really profitable until i started journaling and until i started being disciplined with the risk management because you might not think when when you're doing a journal you won't like it won't help you it does help you even if you're a bad trader if you're recording every trade and you take a picture of the chart when you enter and take note of everything he said and even add on to it you will see patterns and you will see like percentages of your win rate and what trades you're losing so you could cut them out so you basically optimize it it's just like with marketing if you're running ads you you run a lot of ads and then once you get back that data you can optimize to see which ads are the best it's the same way with your journal you can optimize your journal to give you you know the best opportunity and you can learn a lot from your journal so if you're not profitable right now start with a journal and start with risk management one two percent and you'll see the the um the progress you make because here's the thing cause right people think they come in crypto and they wanna be they want to lambo they want 100 and sure there's stories of that but nobody ever really made it like that because eventually you get wrecked because you you can never absolutely never be 100 correct in your directional bias because the market is very random so if you're gonna yolo every trade you will get wrecked at some point especially with bitcoin because you can even see people were yolo shorting this [ __ ] look at that 26 percent if you're on three or four times leverage you're done
2021-08-05 00:40
