LIVE Bitcoin & Crypto What To Expect Now. [trader explains] May 2021 Price Prediction & News
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1 so now wow wow magical crown needs a haircut cave but he doesn't cause i shaved his back that's right that's true that's that's true love welcome back to crown's crypto cave it's a glorious monday over here it's a whole new [ __ ] week we got plenty to talk about see me is open back up and trading once again bitcoin hitting our 31 thousand dollar target from yesterday and we have new opportunities within this market understand though this might be displeasurable i see that there's a lot of new people on this channel today specifically and uh oh yeah that opening too and that was [ __ ] amazing man was living some raging machine uh just this morning i was like man how can you not play this right now this is [ __ ] perfect anyways uh yes yes a lot of new people on this channel i should warn you before we get into it you're gonna be mad you're gonna be very very mad but that's okay this channel as always is focused on traitors and it's not that we discriminate against other you know creeds and religions whenever the [ __ ] you might be within this world we just just understand that you know we can be both bullish and bearish of course and that always comes up with opportunity that's the main thing that's the main thing that we want to be having over here anyways with that said i've been getting this question a lot recently crown is this a bear market is this a bull market look at the end of the day this market's non-binary how about that it's [ __ ] market fluid and it can go from bull to bear in a goddamn second and at the end of the day technically speaking if you go by the textbook definition which a lot of people been arguing with me uh with with me on this which uh you can you're free to argue but fair enough this is this technically the definition what do you want to see on an actual uh macro downtrend on an actual macro bear market you want to see at least a [ __ ] weekly downtrend and you want to see all major move now just training with lower peers traded below higher periods and we do we see that right now no does that really matter because bitcoin sells like a 50 to 60 drop down yes no my point is is that at the end of the day you know regardless of whether regardless whether you're bullish or bearish man this market can [ __ ] zoom both the upside and the downside and so i would actually even just say that that's more or less a talking point for people to kind of get pissed off at and you know you know put moonboy and doomboy hopium in dopamine too at the end of the day it doesn't [ __ ] matter for a trader just make sure that you have your level set off and your biases uh all accompanied for and obviously your risk management what's up mr josh there he is he definitely managed this risk i [ __ ] know that he manages risk because i've been speaking to him to him for a while he got out of [ __ ] vet at like the perfect top what's up back here bears today yeah man uh elsa actually shaved me she actually shaved me trying to make a move on her last night and she laughed at my face do you know how demoralizing that is it's really awful anyways uh okay so into the crown chat application we go uh let's waste one more time because we've got plenty to talk about today fear and greater dex at i believe the lowest that we have seen on this jump on this drop thus far quite literally a 10 read we haven't gotten to single digits just yet but anywhere around here is like extremely fearful now with that said does that just mean that you blindly [ __ ] buy obviously not because you would have done that about three days ago three four days ago and you would have probably held about a uh almost ten thousand dollar loss from forty thousand bucks to thirty thousand dollar low anyways with that said this is you know um a sign that is more on the side of saying hey oh well i do think that bitcoin could could potentially uh continue on downwards from here i wanna start looking for some signs of bottoming at the very least for short-term timeframes because again this asset can [ __ ] move very very very very very very quickly and even if it does put in like a short-term bottom on on a four-hour time frame i mean that can account for like uh you know a 10 move or so which is very much tradable anyways bitcoin don is also sprucing up as well so all coins are going into bitcoins on the whole that does that does imply that as long as bitcoin is uh running this market in this case to the downside then it's not going to be too damn good for the uh for well for the all coins out there unfortunately now i'm sure that there's a few uh outliers here and there who are actually doing well hey what's up mr hamilton there he is i've been trying to call it a bearish phase yeah i'd say i'd say bearish phase is right i mean you know you can't just discount a 50 percent uh you know a 50 or 60 downside move obviously but you know call it what you want to call it that's that's the actual data that's the hard that's a hard and fast facts it's like it's a fifty to six percent downtrend so at the end of the day remember when we came in from this area way the [ __ ] back on over here on the market tab uh we do see that bitcoin took out that last low this was really where this started to look like actual distribution this is what told this channel at around that move to uh what was it about forty nine thousand bucks just below fifty thousand bucks on that first drop that hey it's time to be looking for a lower high because this is risk on right now where do we get our lower high 59 000 bucks have we got a lower high since then on the daily no we haven't we actually haven't which is really [ __ ] uh concerning because at some point bitcoin whether you're bullish or bearish will pop back up and then you got to play the game of is this a lower high or is this a reversal in progress and we just need to be patient so at the end of the day this is incred this is still a massive risk on for the long term right now you know long term i still do think that bitcoin's probably gonna be more less fine but you know how long could that be could be a year could be two years could be whatever the [ __ ] uh personally speaking though i still do think big i would still give bitcoin a chance to bottom out or at least try for a bottom here at the low thirty thousand dollars region or upper twenty thousand dollars region what's up brother christian sir there he is good morning brother crown the plan is underway and the clergy have not deviated god bless sir my [ __ ] man we are in god's plan we are in god's hands and we have our we have our own cave priest right now blessing this place and that's exactly what we want so hopefully brother our sister margaret is not possessed anymore because it sounded like she was having a bad last week but now now now is the time to be looking for opportunities in my opinion anyways uh what else do we see over here opening continues to fall down a little bit more i think we lost about another uh half a billion almost from yesterday to today i believe it was actually below five billion last i checked yeah it was and actually just uh it actually just moved up a little bit there with price action now realistically i want to see this on a daily time frame to really you know clarify moves and whatnot that's where it matters most is that's where it's gonna be mark two but overall i would look at that as you know a small signal again saying hey while i think bitcoin probably does maybe give another go at like 32 or 31 000 bucks i i would look for signs of bottoming around there i think it's been pretty damn beat up and it's not asking for too much to it's not asking bula jesus for too much in order to get a bit of a bouncer even on like an hourly or something which again you know this asset can move thousands of dollars uh rather easily as this is incredibly [ __ ] volatile times in fact we are at you know well well uh speaking like the extremes right now of course which we'll show in a second anyways uh the funny rate over here is actually i think positive now nope it's not global for anybody it's still negative so again another signal saying hey you know yes yes bitcoin prize is a little bit of short-term downside here but uh i would be a little bit cognizant of this you know we're seeing bitmex in huawei now now payne long's uh not 0.5 in order to hold their long finance uh bit uh by bit and okay extreme about the same but to a lesser degree and then derivative just barely [ __ ] positive and same thing with crack and barely negative right there so overall you know i do i do think that we're rather close to at the very least a relief rally um you know after that first markdown phase and that first redistribution phase again looking at this as a y cough top we'll go into the market analytics for the options market here too i'd say this is a little bit more damning to be quite honest with you as we do see the put call ratio now going more in favor of calls once again so yesterday this was about like 0.61 now it went up to about 0.76 but there's a couple things hidden within this data right here which i think are really really really really really important to be cognizant of this 33 000 strike with the puts uh you know grossly overweight anything else on the board does kind of tell me that by expiration we probably do close at the very least somewhere around there probably above there and [ __ ] the put buyers who are just looking for the for the lottery tickets because what are these put buyers like they doing they're likely they're likely not just putting on naked puts very you know professionals do not trade like that i i don't i just not only do not trade like that like your [ __ ] compliance officer and your risk management officer is gonna like call you up and chew you out as i have been in the past myself and uh and what's probably happening is they're either spreading these out or or they got the or they got the strangle on it actually could be a 37 33 strangle and we just played between 33 and 37 for a while i think that's very uh that you know that's very reasonable here too um or or they actually discover it and those and that becomes a synthetic long position now doesn't it anyways looking at the uh i want to see where the expiration on this is yeah we do see that still calls grossly overweight in anything else uh playing the may 28 regulars that's going to be the end of this month and then the june uh monthlies as well uh big time right there and of course that does provide a bit of a range so i want to see how this kind of uh uh evolves into the end of this week we're on the 24th day of may right now it's almost june and i'm really excited for that because i get to get to play chivalry 2 which i'm really excited about massive nerd but recently i actually haven't had too much of a chance to play video games because training is the best video game anyways yeah this month coming to a close relatively soon so we actually should check out on the monthly today but before that um well let's actually go to the price section charts let's let's just let's waste no more time my friends let's waste no more time and what do we see over here on cme actually let's go to this chart over here so cme obviously open on a down tick as we did say was likely coming in from sunday uh school sunday's dump party we did hit that 31 thousand dollars target and i just want to spend a little bit of time on cme chart right here funnily enough remember those strikes that we just saw on the options market guess where the 200 simple is well right around 32 000 bucks and climbing and where's the 200 expense in average right around 37 000 bucks and sideways af so what does that imply it implies that we probably remain in this range probably for this week you know you're probably going to see maybe some wicks above and below but ultimately i do think it's going to be a bit of a rangy week um as bitcoin does test both the downside of you know well you know of our current dump and then probably does you know put in a bit of a uh you know put in a bit of a relief rally but again looking at this from a wyckoff structure i do want to go over kind of what we spoke about yesterday i don't want to do too much repeating so i will just point your eyes and or your ears uh your ears and eyes actually in the direction of yesterday's video on the long-term analysis playlist as uh that's going to go into much more detail with this and i won't go through the full thing here but ultimately this was a textbook why cough top uh again the full-on confirmation was that move below 50 000 bucks that's where we really started to like get actually bearish you know again that was also continuation of downtrend i just want to spend a second talking about trend look trend is one of the most simple ways to trade and it's uh to be honest it's one of the most effective ways to trade as well especially daily trend for bitcoin um and uh and and weekly as well although it doesn't happen as often but as you can see right here i mean these are just phenomenal moves now we obviously have hit the measured move off of that y cough top just kind of take the breath of this um you know of this range right here and that would be pretty much down to about where we're at right now maybe a little bit lower that's a little bit more of an aggressive read as i just did but ultimately when you are getting a y cough um sort of signature here you get this first sort of distributive top right here here's a confirmation on the break below 50 000 bucks and then we got a first throwback not at not at 45 000 bucks not at 40 40 000 bucks but a [ __ ] 30 000 bucks all the way up to about 41 000 bucks that was a quick rejection and that's why we came in bearish over the weekend very likely looking for more downside um which we got and now it's time to be looking for a bit of potential you know or at least i would open up the um i would open up the doors for a potential you know accumulation phase if it does want to happen right here anywhere around low 30 000 i do think is uh you know it is reasonable but i want to be very [ __ ] specifically specific in saying this look if you are looking to invest in this asset which i'm not an investor myself i'm you know i'm a trader i'm just a simple trader a very low iq so i you know i don't like holding things for a long time i just can't sleep in it as well but um you know i wouldn't even consider calling this hello unless of the next few things that i'm going to talk about are met of which none of them have been met just yet so first and foremost i want to go over here to the hash ribbon signal we've been following this one for a while this one was also kind of helping us uh not not just dive into any like long-term longs above especially 50 000 bucks and now and now looking pretty damn good on that and we still do not have that blue buy signal i won't go through the iterations on this video here i did it yesterday and you again are more than welcome to check that out in the long-term analysis playlist but we go through all these iterations on this and until we get that blue bicycle over here i wouldn't even consider that bitcoins put in like a major low that is or or especially a macro low in this case and then even after that you know typically takes about uh you know about a week to two weeks on average for it to actually get that next momentous move uh in the upside direction so in this case right here we still don't have it and they're actually diverging away from each other so it's you know it's not happening it's not happening right now it's not gonna happen anytime soon as you can see that you know we want them to actually uh will actually remain in like a bullish polishing so not [ __ ] good right there obviously and that would be another risky sign so until that happens i i still do not just feel uh you know in any way should perform uh comfortable calling like a major low of course that we'll probably call it a little bit after the fact to be fair but that's you know that's well that that's that's being safe rather than sorry in this case the other big thing that i'll be talking about right here that i really want to wait for in order to see uh some sort of a macro or not even a macro low but like a major low you know probably like a five to ten thousand dollar five to ten thousand dollar rally how ridiculous does that sound i mean it is true uh would be the full hour would be would be at the very least like a low term time from like a four hour putting in a reversal problem is even on the four hour where's our last lower high well before we we had it at forty five thousand five hundred then we moved it down over the week uh over last week to about 41 500 then over the weekend once again to 38 500 and that's where we are right now so as long as bitcoins below this region right here there's just no in there just no talk no talk at all whatsoever of like any you know major uh reversal within this region personally speaking i'm looking for bitcoin to test again on the downside somewhere around 32 to 33 000 bucks and at that point i'd look for a little bit of bottoming signals i do think that we are starting to show some signals of a little bit of uh you know of you know of a little bit of bid catching in the low 30 000 region i like these wicks right here i like the volume again on this one right here and i do like that bbwp did print you know quite literally the extreme the extremist the extremist read it can possibly do um as it did get all the way to 100 tile so if you're not familiar with this indicator it's a volatility based indicator i really really really really really like volatility bits indicators for kind of judging when you know things are at extremes and when are things out of streams well when they're on like major highs and major lows in this case and we did get uh 100 on the 21st of may and then yet again to uh yesterday at 23rd of may and now we're on the 24th of may and another thing that i'd like to be looking for here is i'd actually really want to see this moving average on it which you see right here i'm actually running i forget which period i'm running on this a 16 period right here actually a 16 period um and and i've been testing a few strategies with this it's actually pretty damn interesting um but what i really want to see is i want to see that moving average get above the bbwp and then trend down something like to what you see over here these typically do denote short uh these typically do denote like pretty you know respectable reversals um so uh so so with that in mind you know you can i can give you a few examples i think a really good example to go over would obviously be coronavirus dump times over here you can see that we hit a 100 percentile so very you know some i wouldn't say similar but you know somewhat uh relatable to what we're doing right now as far as volatility goes and then it's not intel that actually got below this moving average right here where bitcoin really started to actually you know continue on with that trend i think that it was you know a lot risky before that but that happened right around here on this higher low so i actually do like that and and again a bit of a timing signal it's not going to get it exactly perfectly but you can see that we have you know we we have some time here so even if you are a long-term investor i would i would perhaps um you know bring up the question in your mind hey uh you know even even if you do think this is going to be like the next major low the next [ __ ] macro before bitcoin goes to whatever ridiculous target you have in your mind you know i think that it could probably get to some like of those ridiculous targets but people are talking about like [ __ ] 100 like 200 000 in a million dollars and just like that i don't know man that's that's too much for me um uh you know i you know i'd have at the very least want to see something like that there's no rush is what i'm trying to say i want i really want to see bitcoin like drop into this region and put in about a similar formation sorry a similar amount of time as what we saw in the top side formation over here a general uh but not necessarily hard rule of y cough accumulation distribution is that once you see the distribution you kind of want to see a similar as you know similar length of accumulation in order to kind of get the next uh you know the next next major low hey what's up hoju42 he says looks like the dollar is what is sitting on daily support ready to go lower s p and now stacker consoling for another move up bitcoin to 500 000 bucks okay so that would be the bullish uh that would obviously be the bullish narrative here so i do want to bring you over to dixie now where where's my damn dixie uh ninety percent right or sorry not ninety percent but uh but ninety bucks right here yes it is basin right on this area mount but um you know i i look it had a chance to break last week it didn't [ __ ] take it it's going to have another chance to break this week yes it does look bearish yes it does look like it wants to turn it down yes we do see almond mixture also it is pretty much south side angled on higher trim time frames i mean we even selling off the same trend line from december 2018 and uh and i would say that you know this is looking more or less like it does want to give another try this week but until we actually get that breakage of it this is a macro bottoming area and if this is a macro body main error you do have to play you know anything against a dollar you know like dollar assets uh as risk in this case and so i you know i like i said it's very likely to test again this region it might even break it might even break uh this week but until that happens i mean this is this is concerning this is very concerning on top of that i mean you know obviously uh rsi right here is very bearish as well i'm sure that someone's going to say that there's a bullish diverse building right there there's actually not just yet uh we'd have to close on lower lows and we don't have that just yet and this is also you know a downtrend on increasing volatility here too so i do look at this as very you know i still risk on in this case um but there are a few you know uh harbingers of maybe peace and prosperity for the boo laws out there as we pour one out over the weekend's uh woes anyways um what else did i want to bring up yeah nasdaq okay so traditional markets i do think are going to play relatively well with bitcoin and the fact of the matter is is that like we said last week look as long as this is holding the range right here oh [ __ ] deleted my chart how dare you how [ __ ] dare you i bet you elsa deleted my chart because she's she's she's vindictive is what she is um but you know i'd be looking at a range like this i do think it's going to bake in this range for a little bit longer as we said last week and then the resolution of this range is probably going to be bitcoin's direction as well problem is if this one breaks down well i'd be looking for further downside on bitcoin you know probably 25 000 bucks uh which is still very much relevant but at the very least i'd give bitcoin you know another chance to kind of uh grind out this low 30 000 region and then uh and then and and then try at least for like a pity bounce and perhaps even a reversal but where do you talk about like full-on reversal on bitcoin at this point so it's similar when we were kind of judging the reversal above 50 000 bucks about a month month and a half ago right here right okay so what do i mean by that well i just lost my train of thought so i actually don't know what i mean by that uh yes okay now i remember what i uh now remembered what i was getting towards so remember this remember when we came in and we put in our first lower low on the daily for this whole goddamn rally right here um on this you know on this last expansion phase well what did we do after that we took a uh we take a we took a bearish fibonacci retracement and guess where guess where the 618 came in right around 58 000 bucks and that was our last closing high that was essentially your lower high before continuation down we can do the same thing here too assuming that this will put in a low again this is making an assumption right now this is not a confirmed local low as it stands at all what so [ __ ] ever i want to be very deliberately clear about that it is not a low right now however if you do start to see maybe later this week a few more weeks within this region and bitcoin still maintaining let's call it like 35 000 bucks then i would be doing something like this i'd be doing something like this and these would kind of be my my areas of interest to the upside of bitcoin want to put in a bull trap but again it is technically speaking risk on or sorry risk you know risky behavior as long as bitcoin's especially especially below 50 000 bucks that is actually the the 618 right here so traditionally speaking uh you know a lot you know a lot of assets like to put in their bull trap somewhere around the 618 um sometimes you see it on very weak assets around the 382 in this case um and on like and just on like complete dog [ __ ] you'll see at the 236 but uh in this case i i don't think bitcoin's like complete dog [ __ ] it's just a little bit dog [ __ ] um just a little bit dog [ __ ] there's no big deal with that um but overall you know these are the areas that i'll be keeping an eye on um now i feel like i lost my truck once again this is very very bizarre today what's going on here man what's going on uh let's see nope no i don't have that one uh are you [ __ ] kidding me i swear i swear what the hell okay elsa is definitely trolling me today um so overall you know do i think that it's possible that bitcoin could do something like this and put in like a you know a three to four month long consolidation on the lows and uh maybe dip a little bit lower and try one of these yeah i do think it's possible and and i know that a lot of people right now want to get super [ __ ] bearish look i can definitely get super [ __ ] bearish as well but uh after about a 53 54 drop down uh from prior highs is that is that the time to really be shorting just you know by [ __ ] probabilistic standards probably not probably not uh even if you do you know if you do want to show this you're probably going to get an entry higher um assuming that that is what you want to do but again i'll bring you back to cme chart over here i do believe that cme chart does uh does matter more than any other chart and uh you know it's you know i i would still be looking at another bounce somewhere around about thirty two thousand bucks or thirty three thousand bucks uh respectively now what would be my conditions for further continuation to the downside uh can we go off structure here that's a real question um we can we can't really on the short-term timeframes cause it's a little bit too uh it's a little bit too close there to be fair if you go to a 12 hour where'd my where'd my continuation point be i'd say about 31 000 bucks on a closure uh you could probably you know you at at that point i'd start to look towards the mood towards about 24 to 25 000 bucks yes it is certainly possible but again as a trader you know i i want to see i want to see proof of that move first i mean this has been a really really really really really aggressive move down here and typically speaking after you do hit extremes on your volatility you're gonna at the very least get like a pity bounce and i think that that's likely what we're going to try around this region i mean even if we go to spot price action we see that the 377's coming in right around guess where 32 000 bucks so i do like that area and are we showing uh would be would be putting any potential bullish divergence um it's possible yes but it's certainly not it's certainly not uh it's certainly not not not close just yet uh so that is its potential but certainly not confirmed in any way shape or form if we go over here to cme chart i do want to point this out uh we do have this trend line coming in from our major lows out about uh november 2018 around 3 100 bucks um connect or sorry i guess it would be december 2018 connected with our coronavirus dumplings we're actually hitting that same trend line on cmu rsi specifically again a little bit of hopium right there to be fair but uh i'm curious if the dual cell signal on the weekly has fully played out now let's go let's go give it a bit of an analysis over here and yes here is your sell signal on the fifth of [ __ ] april the ju the weekly jewel plus the pi cycle indicator [ __ ] man for all the people who down who doubted the the pie cycle indicator myself included myself included uh well definitely eating definitely eating our words now but you know again i do put trend first and at the end of the day i'd still stick with that i do you know i i i do feel quite good about that club especially below fifty thousand bucks and being um and being very cautious on that last bounce there to kind of toot my own horn i probably just sound the egotistical apologies on that it's not my intention but at the end of the day i just want to highlight the fact of how important um obviously uh what's it called just trend is trent trend is your friend if you just let it be and in this case right now all time frames are down trending um as long as we are below about a weekly actually the weekly technically not in a downturn just yet it's pretty [ __ ] close to going into one though if it closed below this last weekly low right here at about 32 000 bucks it will and at that point you know you're gonna have targets down to 25 000 bucks and i i you know you probably need to bounce there but uh do i think that it stops there i mean at that point you know you could maybe even look for for 19 to 20 000 bucks uh you know in uh before before it's all said and done so again we are kind of we are kind of at a uh a very very interesting point here um for pretty much all tr you know uh for pretty much all traders but it's still gonna take a little bit of time here and this is really you know a moment for like technical traders to kind of do their duties and uh and of course and of course the quant firms doing doing arbitrage and whatnot too i mean this is really a time for them to shine and where they're gonna make a [ __ ] ton of money uh but uh but you know investors right now i don't think that there's a rush in this asset and again you know these moves they can be rather seductive even on the short term timeframes like a four hour right here which i see people say four hour short term time frame what the [ __ ] man you're telling me the four is a short term time for it's like yeah actually i do think it is um especially on bitcoin again if you just follow the four hour trend uh well it's been pretty good to you ever since about 58 000 bucks on that lower high so uh so i'll just kind of call it like i see it right there but i should i should denote this uh let me just take a let me just take a sip of this coffee first and then we'll get down into it all right there we go there we go okay so i i do want to call this out as well we are seeing um a lot of divergences a lot of bullish evidences build up on the lower and medium term time frames i believe here's our full hour building multiple drives uh getting the last low right here again i actually do think that this will probably come back down and test around the low like 32 or 33 000 bucks but uh but ultimately if we do take out i guess that would create this is a you know as a local high then uh then then i could be looking for a greater move probably to about 37 to 30 a thousand bucks by to guess uh if we go over to 12 or do we have the same thing in order as well uh no actually we don't actually we don't uh not yet at least uh there is no confirmed local lows right here in fact we did get a death cross on the 12 hour um i'm not a humongous fan of the death cross on a on a time frame like a 12 hour it doesn't have great results historically speaking but excuse me highly unprofessional today as always let's just talk about this over here too how about this we'll get to that later baby iron musk you're at the bastard um anyways uh yeah looking at this right here no not a confirmed local load just yet and uh and and not even resembling one uh as it sounds right now um and what would be needed in order to confirm this is a look low i'd want to see at the very least like a closure above 36 thousand bucks on a 12 hour uh and then yeah you could probably target a move up to at the very least a 10 symbol but i i'd prefer the 21 in this case that will be naturally coming down as it's currently hanging around about 41.5 region and that'd be your last lower high on the 12 hour here too so it'd still be training down overall still be you know risky from uh you know risky from a medium term time frame perspective again it's a time to be a ranged trader in my opinion it's not the time to be uh it's not the time to be like a [ __ ] hero trying to get the ultimate low um in this case uh i i don't even think that that's like a worthy i don't even think that that's like a worthy thing to do as an investor to be quite honest with you you know you have when you're an investor at least if i was an investor i would be thinking in terms of opportunity costs as well it's like you don't want to be [ __ ] sitting in something that's not moving for a while too and regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish even if you do think bitcoins you know gonna bottom out right here at 30 thousand bucks it's probably it's it's not going to be bottom out of here it's not going to just [ __ ] leave the train station and then you'll never be able to get in again at least i would highly highly highly highly highly doubt that i'd be very much willing to put my name on that um although maybe i do that at my own behest because that's usually a bad thing to do hubris is a hell of a drug my friends anyways um you know i'd i'd more or less be looking for like if if you see bitcoin base out here for like three to four months that's at the point where i really start to say okay this is you know this started looking interesting for perhaps another upside move uh john johnson says sir what kind of music are you bullish on take care i'm definitely bullish on rage dance machine this morning but uh you know it depends what sort of a mood i'm in man i i listen to all sorts of just weird [ __ ] um so you don't you don't want to [ __ ] listen to it but you know what i was really enjoying man was finland's uh finland's um uh show at the eurovision concert this past weekend it was [ __ ] epic man uh honestly like they they they really put on a show they have such presence on the stage and uh in such swag man you know i hate that word but they really do deserve it like that was that was [ __ ] special man with all the fire and everything it was just a great great great great performance and uh you know those sorts of things i i have a lot of respect for i just think it's so [ __ ] cool um and uh and it's you know you know even if i wasn't living in finland i'd still i'd still say that that was pretty [ __ ] epic right there that was super [ __ ] epic right there anyways um his favorite is cocaine bob sager says boss 89 no man actually i'm very much not a fan of cocaine i feel like cocaine just makes you into a [ __ ] [ __ ] and more important for whatever reason for whatever reason cocaine everyone on [ __ ] cocaine always wants to start a goddamn business with you like thinks you're gonna rule the world it's uh it's a very interesting drug but uh i think coffee's coffee's strong enough already man coffee's strong enough already anyways um what else do i want to get you before we get into the fun stuff uh or into some other things i want to call out something that um that that one of our community members here actually uh brought to my attention mr renee j big shout out to you sir so this was uh the or what he essentially described was um something that i alluded to yesterday but i didn't expand on and actually i actually hadn't really back tested myself but look uh looking at this what's up chiropractor finland was the best man by the way heard bitboy uh love you and watch the cave yeah man i mean that's awesome you know uh you know mutt you know much love to mr ben over there uh he's got i mean man he's got like the biggest [ __ ] channel this whole goddamn space crazy absolutely [ __ ] crazy uh so hopefully you know hopefully these sort of times are going well for him as well um but uh but yes what was i just about to say ah [ __ ] i lost my trains of thoughts here yes that's it ha all right referencing mr renee j so i i alluded to this yesterday i did not expand upon it and i haven't done the back testing so why should you do it right now um he said or or what i said yesterday was bitcoin got its first open and closed below the 200 simple i believe this was on saturday this was kind of a big deal because you know when you break a moving average it doesn't mean too much on its own when you open and close below it that's like you know confidence within the market and we have confidence within the mark uh right here especially with the 200x benchmark i'm just actually getting a little bit of a negative slope there the 200 simple get the negative slope as well then well if you like bitcoin at 40 000 bucks you're gonna love it at 15 or 20 thousand bucks uh but again long ways to go before that hey what's up abbott dynamic after the bitcoin take yeah man uh could you share any pro tips on improving yeah absolutely uh yeah we could definitely talk about that i actually really enjoyed those topics man because it's stuff that i spent a lot of time thinking about because i struggled with it so much when i first began i still do sometimes too so i can i can definitely i can definitely share a few tips uh that i've been put in my life uh that can uh that that uh that have certainly helped me and added value anyways um so yes we got our first open enclosure below the turning symbol on saturday and any time that we've done that in the history of bitcoin and again i haven't i've been back to this this just yet but uh but but i'm gonna go with renee right now and any time that we've gone that uh bitcoin's dropped off well let's see we got our first one over here and get our first one over here open enclosure below base base base and then from next top next top to next low about 15 and a half percent uh nasty but um yeah nasty i mean we kind of already have a move like that i think uh same thing over here on this one this one obviously led into your next major dump on this region at about oh dear lord okay that one's uh about 30 as you can see um then where's the next one after that uh that was chronovirus dump time so you already know that one's going to be extremely aggressive all the way down about 41 drop down after that uh what about before that yes we have to go all the way back to 2018. um again an opening close below here actually this one would not be a good example so that would be an out or sorry that would be thus far an outlier and an example of this actually failing so i'm not certain how much i trusted just yet open enclosure below here next to rally up to next low what do we see about a 30 drop down okay and then it stayed that way the whole way through yeah the next year and a half it looks like uh any other times before that that we actually traded below there again on this example over here really not a really not a good iteration of this you know at most about nine percent uh nine percent down or actually no no this one's probably a little bit more here so let's give it it's it's full merit uh 17.5 down okay so still still respectable i suppose um and then after that uh we have a couple more over here which i'm just curious what are we what are we looking at on this one fifteen and a half percent so you know it does look like um you know it you know it does it does have some merit but have we already done a move like that i think so actually uh let's see yeah about 20 move off that so you know we could reasonably say that perhaps that sort of a signature has already played out so you know what uh now that i've kind of gone back in time and looked at it uh you know i i definitely appreciate you renee bringing that up um however i would say it's relevant yes uh however i i think that you could just as easily make an argument that we've already played out that move i mean 20 is pretty [ __ ] pretty [ __ ] big pretty [ __ ] big man all right um behold haircut at 25 000 bucks no way man i'm i'm i'm shining this [ __ ] forehead as long as i can my friend i'm gonna get fake hair too it's no problem one day you're gonna see me in like uh in like a full in the full face of hair i'm gonna have like straight hair too instead of this nasty curly nappy headed [ __ ] hair and and it's gonna be glorious my friend but when does that day come well hopefully a bitcoin rally seemed that i can do it sooner uh no just kidding um well maybe not hey what's up there he is caretaker yeah man we already already checked the hash ribbons earlier it's not giving a signal right now and it's still it's still nowhere near to be honest with you as well oh there he is what's up mr decamps yeah man we'll get to uh we'll get to we'll get to matic usd um uh we'll get somatic usd i think um i think we'll go back now to mr abbott dynamic or actually before we go to add a dynamic let's go over here and see what momentum is suggesting on our on our tertiary charts mr character cause stc on the weekly still pretty nasty pretty [ __ ] bad here massive [ __ ] range here too but i don't think that the weekly is going to be too helpful on this maybe the daily is going to be better on this one and yeah we are starting to see daily mental monsters pop back up here a little bit but keep in mind 47 or sorry 47 uh 40 30 oh my god i'm dyslexic 34 750 is is that magical number if we do start closing below there it's pressure onto the downturn once again um probably know the tests towards 31 000 32 000 bucks at the very least i mean at that point yeah it doesn't look good it doesn't look good man um let's see what about the 12-hour right here elsa's having a laugh party in the background uh 12-hour down some momentum as well as long as below 36.5 i'm gonna take a i'm gonna polish off the rest of this coffee
oh i spilled myself i need a sippy cup um she thinks that's funny you're gonna have to clean it up so that sucks for you uh 10 hour same thing four hour four is actually up right now but very weak thirty three thousand bucks gonna be the uh gonna be the magical number there uh three hour 33 same uh two hour 32 720 hourly way the [ __ ] up there uh so yeah you know i would probably be looking for another downside move on bitcoin and then probably try another low somewhere around 32 to 33 and then we'll see how and then we'll see how you know if if and how it recovers from there if we get another closure today let's say let's call it above like 35 000 bucks i'd probably be looking at that as you know bouncy bounce territory maybe for something uh later this week play between you know what we said earlier about 33 and 37 000 bucks maybe a few weeks above maybe a few bucks below but overall i think it's going to be you know a little bit more boring uh these next uh maybe not this week but probably you know starting next week you know junior match is going to be a more or less boring month um and that would actually be good uh it'd be very very bad if bitcoin actually does drop out this current low because that's when well that's when you got to start to move those targets down to 25 000 bucks and beyond so there you go all right sweet um okay so let's get to let's get to abig dynamic he has a really good question over here and um and this is actually something we can definitely cut out and upload to this channel as well oh no my hourly is wrecked my hourly is wrecked oh we got you we got hourly hit and bearish evidence hold on maybe i should check out this here too uh by early uh no it doesn't have it okay so fair enough what about momentum offset is tsi starting to actually you know you know catch a little bit of momentum here too uh some right there what about barley same thing what about hourly yeah and this also can be looked at as as as bullish diverting so you know again i think that we're relatively close here i have pretty much a lot of the same things to say but just another sort of test maybe down around here okay so so so so abbott dynamic says hey sir hope you're well uh i'm doing all right man got a decent night of sleep last night hope you do hope you had a great weekend as well man and uh let's see after the bitcoin ta could you share any pro tips on improving discipline in both trading and life goals okay so trading trading is life like what you do in trading is basically how you live as well like i actually learned a lot i probably learned uh i probably learned a lot more about myself like my actual self and and who i am and like that i'm actually not you know i used to think that i was like really uh uh emotionally sound and like very uh and very stable no man once i got into trading not so much not so much man pretty [ __ ] crazy so uh elsa can definitely attest to that and i'd hope that she wouldn't because it's gonna be embarrassing to sell anyways my point is my point is is that trading is essentially an allegory for life you know they are one of the same the way that you do one thing is the way that you all do all things and in trading what have i done in order to improve discipline okay so the the the easiest thing the the biggest quick fix that i've done in trading specifically specifically trading um to to essentially uh impose discipline was creating a trade journal and a trade checklist now that essentially gave me a road map and a guide that i could always essentially follow that would play into my long-term sorry you know my actual plan because as i've you know as i told that story last week when i actually blew up my account you know years ago it was a matter of coming back and realizing that deviating from that plan is where i you know get wrecked essentially and if i continue to deviate from it then i will naturally get wrecked over time you know i won't go into the full spiel right now but just the main points are is that trading is a game of statistics and probabilities and if it's a game of system probabilities where you can't necessarily be perfect it's a game of essentially risk management and also well knowing you know knowing your targets you know no you know knowing your entry profit profit taken and risk management in its essence so if you can't define those three things and make a plan that's based upon that with some sort of a statistical edge that does give you you know at least some non-zero chance over time not you know not non-zero probability over time to uh to make money you can actually reasonably make a plan now obviously you know the higher the hit rate is the better but you can still make it work even with you know even with the subpar hit rate uh assuming that you know the the the results for it are really really good you know it's an interplay between all three uh anyways okay so the main thing would be creating that trading journal and also the trading checklist the trading checklist was essentially my strategy written down where i would go in before every [ __ ] trade every goddamn trade and i'd say does this meet my current trade criteria if it doesn't do not take trade it sounds simple it sounds very [ __ ] simple but here's the thing most people won't do this like it it it boggles my mind to no end and it actually makes me like quite literally angry i don't know why it makes me angry it shouldn't it's not my problem or i guess it is it's a problem with me psychologically but it makes me [ __ ] furious when someone comes to me and says crown i'm trying to learn trading and like especially if they're in the program or something and uh and and and i need some help it's like okay can i see your trade journal do you have a do you have a plan they're like i keep it in my head oh okay uh this person like you're [ __ ] man look this game is this game is hard as hell and and i'll be the first person to tell you that most people will not be successful in it not because they're not capable of it just because they don't do the [ __ ] bare minimum a very goddamn least like understand if you have a chance to do something that can potentially you know potentially give you a living potentially give you a living especially for the you know for the very serious people out there you got to do the bear goddamn minimum because other people are and if you are you know if you know if you are kind of competing with other people which actually don't think that trading is necessarily competition it's more or less competition with yourself but in the in the essence of this uh this specific example we'll kind of use that then look you better be doing the goddamn bare minimum in order to at the very least think that you have got that even think that you have a chance in this game josh says i need help uh with good examples of a good trading journal where can you point me to okay so a good trading journal is uh i would actually point uh josh you're in the ta program reference the video in the i think it's like the second section the second or third section it's titled trade uh checklist that's that's that's probably that's that's probably where where uh where you want to go the trade journal is more or less just documenting your results over time but the trade checklist and actually it's basically just a plan is getting your plan on paper so that every time you take a trade you have to like literally look at it and then say does this mean my criteria if it doesn't i cannot take this trade and you have to force yourself to literally think about that every goddamn time because a lot of people can actually make a you know a decent trading plan it doesn't maybe not like the best trading plan of all time but a decent one even with like you know a few months of of concerted effort of training uh but the problem is they typically don't follow it you know they start feeling the emotions as do be all i get it as well and then what what happens after that well you just you start deviating from your plan and we start deviant from your plan when you are playing a game that is statistically based you can no longer be reliant on those statistics you can't expect that they're going to work in your favor so you quite literally have no plan you have no edge and you might as you you might as well just throw your money down the drain because that is more or less what's going to happen um at least in my experience so uh you know again these are things these are lessons that i had to learn incredibly painfully like i actually went [ __ ] broke learning that lesson like literally broke zero [ __ ] dollars which uh i would strongly suggest that you do not want to do it's really not fun i can tell you that straight up look i i know that like people who are very enlightened out there will tell you that money isn't everything look money isn't everything but uh it's better to have no money problems than to have money problems or at least you want to have money problems like figuring out your taxes rather than figuring out how to buy food you know so so with that in mind i i you know i do think that that was a big one for me um if i'm talking just in general in life uh one of the things that's really helped me is keeping just a general journal of my days and then also meditation uh for 15 to 20 minutes every morning and then when i do that after that i typically will journal and and i'll do it a lot of the time on my phone it doesn't have to be trading related but i a lot of the time it will you know we'll have stuff like that in it just naturally because that is well i guess that's my life for better or worse which is kind of sad but it's [ __ ] sad but i i do enjoy it i do enjoy it man i do enjoy it so i'm a boomer well [ __ ] off sir anyways um anyways uh i i find i find a lot of value in that and you could even think of that as like a religious thing you know i don't think of myself as like a religious person but that is my religion it's like being adherent to that in some way as brother christiansen come back into the mix what's up man um uh but yes uh and we'll get to that soon enough as well um but overall you know this is this is really really really really really powerful stuff because if you can employ this stuff you know for even just a few years con consistently within your life and i mean consistently like every [ __ ] day uh you really need to carve out that time and can you can you can you carve out like 15 to 20 minutes yeah you probably can you know do you spend 15 or 20 minutes like scrolling through facebook or or instagram or on netflix if you do that or playing video games or whatever it might be if you do that then you got time you definitely have time so there's really no excuse in my opinion um no matter what i will always make time for that i always always always no matter what the situation is uh doesn't matter it does not matter because there's actually well i i don't need to go into that example but more importantly i just want to focus on the stuff that actually [ __ ] works here so that's what i'd say just general stuff very very simple stuff and then also you know having set goals for yourself as well goals need to be relatable and and and definable as well like you can't say my goal is to be rich and happy it's like okay well how do you define that can you quantify that well you can't so shut up no it's not don't shut up but you need something that's like relatable that you can actually measure over time because you want to know if you're progressing towards there because basically what you're doing is you're creating a plan and then you want to see if your plan works over time that's the idea that's essentially the idea with that so uh make sure you know if you know if you are new in this game that would be probably the biggest thing that i could that i could pass on to you it'll save you a lot of [ __ ] pain because look you don't need to go through the same things that i went through you don't you quite literally don't but it is up to you only you no one else here no one else in your family no one else in your [ __ ] life it is only up to you in this game of being a traitor to take responsibility for that and if you actually take 100 responsibility 100 of the time then it'll probably end up you know decently well if you don't then then then you get the same painful lesson that i did and uh and again you don't need to do that you actually don't need to do that the saying goes uh what uh a smart man learns from his mistake a wise man learns from the mistakes of others i'm not that's i'm not that wise man and people are telling me that's the same the same thing when i first started trading too you know i was around some of the best traders in the world and guess what almost all of them have a story of like blowing out at least once um and uh and and they told me and they warned me and what did i think as a [ __ ] mid-20s just idiot yeah i can do it it's like no i can't you know so uh so so so if that that that would be the biggest thing man hopefully hope you know hopefully that is in some way valuable um i'll also get onto this one as well i know that there's a few other comments here too but i do want to kind of flow on this topic for a second here uh brother christiansen says brother crown i find myself staring at the chart from open to close i fear this game of mice and men has taken hostage my soul how can i balance um you know having your own again having your own plan and knowing when you actually have uh your edge on the table is at least my solution to that because a lot of the time you're not going to get hit on that edge if you're like a long-term investor you can go maybe and sometimes in some cases even years you know even a year of waiting you know waiting for your edge to hit i mean i'm sure that the you know the smart investors in 2018 certainly did hey do not play with the goddamn dishes right now uh but you know this area over here uh you know that that was the time to be waiting how do you know because this was an actual [ __ ] bear market how do you know that's an actual bear market all major moving averages were in a bearish posturing for a long period of time again this these are technicalities here i'm not going to tell you that you know 50 to 60 downside on you know on a lot of these crypto assets is not a bear market or not it's just the implications wrong it implies the wrong thing like people think oh it's not a bear market so uh so i i just buy right here no no no like obviously not but if you want to go by the textbook definition you know that'll be it right here anyways my point is is that you got it you got to know exactly what you're looking for so that you're not essentially just having your eyes glued to the to the screen because that's not going to make you a better trader it's just going to make you crazy um and i see a lot of people getting sucked into that you know skipping sleep and whatnot which i actually did last week um just because well my edge was getting hit off a lot and for myself the this really is like where i want to be trading this is perfect right here for for the last six months i've mostly just been holding it and it's been boring as all hell and uh and so this is like actually quite kind of fun for myself but you know to each their own right know what kind of trader you want to be know what your proclivities are and how do you discover that you backwards engineer what kind of person are you do you know what kind of person you are well spend some time with yourself and figure it out maybe you don't want to be on the short-term timeframes maybe you don't want to be watching the [ __ ] one minute i don't i don't want to watch the one minute um even though you can make you can certainly make a living doing that i mean [ __ ] a couple of the guys in the discord are doing that uh jesus christ apriori in the discord like made what like 4 000 bucks into 250 000 bucks or some [ __ ] like just trading the tick charts on traditional market i think it can be done a lot easier there or in comparison to crypto markets but hey even some people doing crypto markets too i mean uh pen uh penny show shows the one minute quite often too it's not for me but but hey to each their own know what kind of person you are know what kind of uh know what kind of you know um goal is maintainable to your life so for myself i value sleep i value uh i value less risky positions and uh and so you know i i really don't like going on time frames lower than a full hour and in times like these you know i actually really want to be hanging on the higher term timeframes because this is you know this is a big move this this is a major move and you know you're just going to get blown through on it on a very low term time frame in my experience uh because again bitcoin can zoom thousands of bucks here and not even break the goddamn range again for for 100 clearness where is bitcoin's last lower high 59 000 bucks so even if you are a daily
2021-05-26 22:23