HOW I IDENTIFY SHAKEOUT (Price Action Trading Live)
good morning guys so the market is currently open 11 40 in the morning today i have a long bias in the market i've just gone long at this Candle here in nifty bank and my stop-loss is set at this particular level so this was some sort of a shakeout candle that developed and this is where a lot of people would have adjusted the positions that is exited positions had they been long after looking at the way nifty bank opened today so at present the price is at 33 620 and the stop is at 33 370. so that's roughly about a stop of 0.9 that is my risk in this trade and i do feel you know we'll go to something like at least this level here this will be about a movement of one percent and if the momentum continues there you go we can see some of movement is happening we can even go to this level here so i wanted to do a detailed short selling video today and i wanted to explain things live but the overall market structure is such that you know i'll be only able to explain a long trade today we'll take a look at there you go some momentum is definitely coming in a nifty bank and this is a good sort of structure that is forming at least in the short term and look at the long tail candle that is forming right at the day's low this is this is a good sign and very close to even yesterday's high level this sort of price action is developing right at the v web and if you just take a look at this price action here a couple of bearish candles but price did not move lower again here this long tail candle some sign of demand so at the viva per se the signs are really good in terms of price having some sort of up movement at least for the day and i'll just review things back let us go to nse advanced decline so if you look at nac advanced decline advances 142 declines is 14 so strong momentum exists on the upside if we go to something like nifty bank so this is nifty bank i'll just refresh it so all stocks of nifty bank can you see are in the green so it's a good place this particular region here to initiate our trades to go for long opportunities yes this particular candle is not positive as such but i think given the overall broader market momentum we will see some sort of positive movement coming in the market and these are actually the structures that i prefer when it comes to day trading in terms of price volume some sort of confirmation coming in with respect to advanced decline these are sort of things that i really really prefer a lot of you know if you look at the sectors nifty bank 1.2 percent finance
1.5 percent metal 3.5 percent this is not a surprise because metal index is the strongest index in the market followed by nifty id and then banks and finance these sectors are also strong again i won't get into the detail of how to identify this because for that you'll have to watch some other videos so for the timing i'll just leave the topic aside in terms of stocks if you see a lot of stocks are doing very well today something like chola mandalum has been a good stock cci container corporation again a good stock this is hindalco entire metal sector is buzzing mainland mineral finance i mean most of the stocks tata steel is up five percent today i mean this stock is also doing really really well take a look at something like tata power so a lot of stocks are moving up tata motors gold rich properties so it's a good session where you know your bias only has to be to take trades on the long side and i've just marked out my scale out level let us see what kind of candles develop i'll just take a look at the kind of volumes that are coming in so this will be volume indicator some bit of volume expansion has happened as the price has moved up so this is a good sign so before we move forward please note that there are over 200 free videos available on this channel for you to learn trading and investing just go to the link here i'll make sure the link is easily visible also when you click on the playlist each and every video has been organized in a playlist so that you can learn in a proper sequence take notes and get better at trading and investing and make sure you have clicked the subscribe button and the bell icon this is the only way you will get notified when a new video is released on this channel and if you think our videos deliver value to you please consider hitting the like button because it really helps out our channel so in terms of you know if you just take a look at overall 30 minute structure it is still a structure of lower high and lower low so this is just some counter trend movement developing in the market and this is very common unless an until nifty bank goes above something like this point here the structure won't turn into higher high higher low so this is again a day trading kind of structure it is not a structure that you know one should carry forward unless and until one is a systematic trader investor or a positional trader as of now for short-term trading at least on the long side opportunities are a bit limited but of course for day trading opportunities always exist either on the long side or on the short side today if you see even the small cap index is up 0.93 percent mid cap is up 2.11 so overall things are fine i mean it's it's also a friday i think monday we have a holiday so market is only going to open on tuesday so 1.89 so this Candle right above the v this is not a negative candle it has a some sort of volume spike a long wick i don't read this as a sign of supply it is not a sign of supply here this is just some sort of rejection developing because we already have a bearish candle here with respect to 30 minute time frame and the midpoint of such candles always pose resistance so you know this is one concept a simple price volume concept that i cover in great detail so we are just seeing some pause here but i think overall trajectory is is really strong for the day and when i look at the advanced decline data also i mean advanced decline is also really really positive if you just refresh again so there's some lag in advanced decline nifty 50 if you see 48 stocks are moving up two stocks are moving down so those stocks are dr reddy power grid both are from low beta sectors okay so 141 advances and 15 declines so which stocks are declining because that tells you a great deal about the texture of the market arti industries dr reddy pfizer biocon alchem bhatta lupin so can you see mostly defensive sectors are down today that means high beta sectors are doing well so your bias cannot be on the short side unless and until you start seeing reversal in the market you should never go ahead and short sell when high beta sectors are trying to move up so we may consolidate some more for the day this is the reference point if it gets hit that is completely defined yesterday i uploaded a video about short selling how i managed positions there but in general you know overall market is doing well a lot of stocks are giving entry opportunities today and a lot of v-shape reversals are happening in the market that is also something a very common that plays out in the current structure so that is something you know i i definitely take note of so banking metal finance these are the kind of stocks that are relatively doing well so some sort of rejection is happening just at the vap level this is again completely fine it's a normal market activity that plays out on a consistent basis and during during these times you know you just have to sit back and not do much in terms of day trading and just wait for you know some sort of sign of reversal some sort of weakness to come in so if i see a bearish candle on the downside below the v with volume spike that is the only point i go ahead and try and you know manage some positions so many times i'll use these candles actually to accumulate a bit more that is something i do but that entirely depends on you know how the broader market is shaping up so nothing much i mean you just have to wait for the structure to develop i'm i'm pretty sure this structure will work out i'm already 10 minutes into the video approximately so some sort of long week rejection here these are also long wicks here so you can see that there is some sort of supply here that nifty bank is not able to counter and in case we don't violate this low point here i'll try and carry the positions for tuesday also because till the point this is not violated there is a possibility that price will go out and test something like thirty four thousand four hundred and price is currently at thirty three thousand six hundred so that's about eight hundred points so i don't wanna miss out on that opportunity because my stop loss is just thirty three three seventy so i'll definitely consider carrying my position and maybe you know this video will be about trading over two days or not just about a day trade here let's see how it pans out so 33 630 some sort of long tail developing at vivap these are very common common patterns that play out consistently in the market so you just have to wait and and see you know how structure evolves so in terms of daily time frame i mean yesterday i was explaining a few things about daily time frame structures i'll just explain one thing about nifty that i'm observing today i'll i'll pull up the spot chart of nifty because so for those of you who are channel members please note that the market update video about current sectors stocks will come out tomorrow i'll also be talking a few things about systematic investments trading and in terms of positional trading and along with this trading at anchor viva part one will also come out please keep the notifications on and please be active in the community section that is where i discuss a lot of things about current market structures sectors and stocks and for those of you who are not channel members you can just join channel membership for one month and watch all the 44 videos in price and volume analysis series so these videos are spread out across five main playlists the first series is about price volume analysis the second series is about application of price and volume analysis third series is about detailed rules and structures about pullback trading fourth series is about pivot range and poc analysis and the fifth series is about gaap trading now futures chart so if you look at the futures chart of nifty yesterday's candle was pretty bearish we're getting this wide range candle on the downside today we have opened here and we are trying to move higher so this combination of candle is actually called a kicker pattern i've covered this in great depth in kicker pattern first day you get a candle i'll just fill this just give me a couple of seconds so that i'll just replicate how the candle actually looks so consider this as a bearish candle of yesterday and today we are seeing something very similar to something like this and i'll just adjust the colors here so that you can understand the concept of a kicker pattern that plays out quite frequently so can you see the psychological implication here the first day that is yesterday price moved lower with momentum a lot of traders you know take short positions of course this was not the ideal place and then today we've got a gap opening very close to the high point of yesterday's session and now we are seeing some sort of range expansion happening and we are also seeing i'll just use a trend line here that there is some sort of long tail also developing so this is a short-term reversal pattern that plays out quite frequently i don't know whether it will work immediately or not or let's say this time around but just test this out on historical charts because this pattern works exceptionally well and just in terms of short-term reversals you know there are there are a lot of stocks that reverse this way so this is actually called a kicker pattern i have covered this in swing trading series just use the playlist of the channel to go down and study about this pattern specifically this really works well so let us just get back to nifty bank no major movement happening as of now on end of day basis nifty bank is also seeing two long tail candles here so this long tail yesterday's long tail was something i really liked in nifty bank but you know let us see how how the overall structure pans out here so it's 11 52 we are just about 13 minutes into the video and the price is at 33 645 i'm fairly confident we are heading higher at least testing out something like 33 840 today this sort of test will happen in the market i'll again get back to you in some bit of time in 15-20 minutes i'll just i just have to enter some positions i need some time here so in 15 20 minutes i'll again log back and again record a 10 15 minutes sort of segment so that there is some continuity and you can understand this better so i'll check back in some time guys so welcome back guys it's 12 40 in the afternoon and no major movement has happened in nifty bank you've seen some deviation away from the vivap then prices again retraced back again this is nothing but a shakeout structure that has developed will simply see price moving higher that is what i believe look at the candles now you know that are formed when price is pulled back to the v app there's no pickup in volume activity so this is just a shakeout structure scaring a lot of people and what i anticipate here is again movement towards this side here so these are just some very normal viva patterns that develop consistently in the market and even the broader market performance has improved from the last time look at mid cap index up two percent small cap one percent a metal three point two four percent take something like pharma it's relatively underperforming i t is up 1.42 so overall market is
you know really strong and even if nifty bank does not see some sort of movement is happening even if nifty bank does not see a movement today i'm going to carry this position with this particular level as stop loss because on tuesday again we'll see some upside momentum developing in the market and in case you know this trade does not materialize today i won't release this video on saturday i'll then release it on tuesday after you know we have had a tuesday session either gap up gap down that does not matter in terms of stocks if you see the performance of a lot of stocks has come in chola finance continues to perform well cci again has moved up hindalco all the metal stocks mainland mineral finance these were the names tata steel look at tata steel 762 tata consumers tech mahindra tata motors i mean the same kind of names are again moving up as the market is bouncing back it's still too early to say whether you know this corrective phase in nifty bank has ended even in nifty because we are consistently moving lower we need to form some sort of congestion region and then attempt to move on the upside that is when we'll know so it's still pretty early to say this particular thing and in terms of the day structure we're just consolidating at the vivap after some bit of deviation happened away yesterday now i did a video where you know i short sold here till this particular point this is what i released on thursday a lot of you were surprised by this move here please go back in the video where i was explaining this that when the down move happens on back of low volume activity then counter trend movements develop pretty quickly so that is what played out yesterday this is what i was explaining during the segment where i was recording when market was moving lower so these are just some low volume setups that develop in the market yesterday was also expiry session so just based on how price is moving today after this particular long tail candle i find nothing wrong in the structure over the very very short term just for one two day kind of setup this is what i will think nifty bank is currently doing some long tail candles on daily time frame also so there is nothing wrong that i can spot here if i go through all the nifty bank stocks we'll just get a better idea with respect to the structure again long tail and access bank consolidating right at the vivap i would like to see what hdfc bank is doing this remains an important bank in the nifty bank sector so this is also forming a nice structure let us look at another main stock icsa bank icsa bank is also consolidating above the vmap in recent times even state bank of india is very important for nifty bank structure kotak bank is consolidating above the viva app good structure state bank of india state bank of india this is also right about at the v app so i can't find any negative structure per se nifty bank that is why i'm fairly confident that what you are seeing here is just a larger shakeout structure that is developing and in terms of what we discussed i'll switch this to 30 minute because i'll just explain one particular pattern that is developing and apart from the low pa low point here that is this point here i'll remove all the markings so the way i'm reading this structure is that we're getting again some sort of flat pattern on the chart yesterday i discussed this with respect to day trading today let us look at it in terms of one to two day kind of structure so i just feel there is some consolidation going on can you see this is a flat pattern developing and we are going to break out i am pretty pretty confident that this is this will happen unless and until of course i have given you an exit criteria that if i see a wide range candle developing below the v app with volumes that is when i'll i'll consider exiting those positions but other than this i just don't find anything wrong in the market in fact i think there is some sort of short-term reversal that is materializing in the market and we just need to see how how we close today so closing will be important a lot of lot of stocks sectors are showing some sort of reversal patterns of course these patterns need a lot of confirmation typically in form of follow-through days on the upside so even indian wicks is down about six percent today so this is just some consolidation playing out nothing else i was of the opinion that today will be a good day trading day at least in the nifty bank space that is not materialized yet so yeah if you're a community member yesterday i was just explaining why i think it will be a good trading day today but that opinion for now has not proven right anyway such things happen sometimes opinion come true sometimes these don't it is completely fine but with respect to stocks with respect to sectors i mean the known names are doing well i.t metal and nifty bank finance so we're seeing some down movement happening can you see this any trader would get scared looking at this look at this sharp movement that is happening here again right at the vivap the way i will read this Candle is with respect to the long tail here so nothing is going to happen don't worry seeing such things we have we are seeing some volume spike also but let us see how it closes the closing of the candle is important if it closes in a negative manner wide range closing near the low point and volumes are spiking up then i'll see what to do as of now just don't worry nothing will happen 2 minutes 42 seconds left this is again within this larger shakeout structure this is one shakeout candle developing so don't worry guys even if you take a hit here stop loss gets hit it's fine take it as a learning but in my opinion this is just a shakeout structure developing within this long tail candle here we'll rotate some bit more but we will head higher maybe today maybe on tuesday that is something i i cannot pinpoint exactly just because of the way market is structured lower high lower low on 30 minute trend is not that up so this is just in terms of risk reward yes there was a trading opportunity that is why i went behind it and we'll just see what happens at the most this level will get hit nothing else will happen we're already seeing some long tail here see when the candle is playing out when the price is moving lower the first thing you do is you go and look at your m2m figures this is your profit and loss this is the main reason you're getting scared if you stop looking at this this is nothing but a candle getting printed on the chart and and i'm happy this is playing out in real time because i'm not scared about what is going on because my risk is defined this is my risk here if the stop is hit it is hit it is as simple as that some trades work some don't but if you keep focusing on m2m mark to market figures profit and loss this is where you will lose out on your piece of mind and let me write this out because this is important your peace of mind in terms of trading it is the most important asset so just don't do this to yourself because you know i can understand why a lot of traders focus on this because this is what floats around in social media and youtube profit and loss sells big time and that is where you're losing out in trading don't do that to yourself see we're getting a long tail what was turning out to be a very bearish candle has now turned out to be a long tail candle with huge volumes right within the previous demand region so this is an exceptionally bullish candle that is how i will read this situation i let 30 seconds pass i'll just wait for the Candle to finish if it if it closes above the v app i'll consider it super bullish so let us just see 19 seconds left for price to for the Candle to complete so the way i'm reading this this is a this is a shakeout structure that is developing and when i see such structures forming i become more confident that price is going to head higher so and again i don't mind being wrong i think this is coming in nifty bank just based on how price is shaking out a lot of traders here and lot of traders would have been shaken out let me tell you the moment price comes here you just rush to your terminal exit your position then you feel some sort of you know satisfaction by exiting positions then you try and give out n number of reasons why this exit was justified i've done all of these mistakes in the market that is why i can tell you it's a huge mistake first let the candle finish analyze the structure what has changed in terms of structure despite of the Candle forming nothing has changed in fact the only thing that has changed in this particular structure is that i after this Candle can tell you the nifty bank structure has further strengthened in my opinion this is the only remark i'll make on the chart for the very short term one to two day kind of structure this is nothing but immense strength that is how i will read this entire scenario and you know i've already scaled in a lot but had i not completely scaled in this is where i would have doubled my position because it's a low risk opportunity my op my stop loss is 33 370 price is exactly at the vivap and we are going to see deviation away from the vivap that is something again if i'm wrong i will happily accept it but i definitely think we are going to see deviation away from the vivap in the very short term so these are some very common patterns that play out and it is just practice nothing else if this trade works out so that will be two days in a row that i captured the downfall here and the upswing here so this is not a coincidence it is just practice even if the trade fails i am not going to get disheartened by it because that is the attitude you need to have as a trader again you have to be content with what you do don't worry about what others are doing that is again a huge trap see people talk about market trying to trap you to take positions actually the market is not trapping you the problem with i will i will put it this way the problem with the current time is that we are looking at so many things at the same time that we are often getting distracted with with you know what what we need to do in our own trading so everybody has strength and weakness in their trading but we are trying to replicate someone else who's doing something else on some other platform we want to be like them people you know this is a human nature and you need to escape from this sort of mindset because otherwise you will just not remain consistent and i just hope this stop-loss is hit today because i want to show you that these things also happen in the market where your opinion can go wrong you just have to accept it just have to close out your positions and you have to you know live to fight another day that is how i would like to put it that is what market is all about taking it one day at a time and again whatever i am telling you is from a short-term trader point of view there's nothing to do with positional trading investing swing trading those require a very different mindset this is only from day trading short-term trading point of view that identify good structures just just believe in what you are seeing after you have obviously back tested it for at least three four years and then just go ahead and take trades don't worry about what will happen there is no one in this world who can tell you where the market is going it is all about probability at any given point of time and such structures i think are high probable structures i absolutely love trading those structures where i can easily identify a shakeout that has played out because this is a common psychological pattern lot of people will be exiting and this Candle is not moving higher so people will be thinking that decision is right again see some rejection at vap so this is where a lot of traders will be getting comfortable those who have not exited at this Candle here now they will be exiting here thinking that this is a rejection happening this is not a rejection in terms of overall structure in terms of flag structure that is developing this is a buying opportunity this is accumulation on five minute time frame chart on 15 this is 30 minute timeframe chart this is nothing but accumulation happening in nifty bank and i've already told you that if the trade does not materialize today i'm going to continue recording this even on tuesday just to show you how things progressed so guys it's 12 55 very close to 12 55. already i've recorded this 15 minute segment i'll again record one more segment before the market ends another 15-20 minutes segment because so that there is some sort of continuity and you can actually pick up from where i left so again i'll check back in some time take my remarks nothing is going to happen this is nothing but accumulation that is going on in nifty bank so i'll check back again guys so before we move forward please note that these are the only social media platforms where i am present my twitter and instagram id are mentioned here and while joining the telegram channel please check the spelling because there are many fake channels that are using my logo and are giving out trading investment calls please note that i don't give out trading investment calls and i don't run any webinar seminars or any sort of trading course so please be aware and whenever i reply to you on youtube you will always see my name highlighted in this black color with the verified sign because again there are a lot of people in comment section who are just using my logo they are taking you to their website to sell courses to sell webinars please be aware of this and please check the spelling before joining the telegram channel or any of my social media platforms so welcome back guys it's 120 and we have just seen this particular low point being you know breached on intraday basis just take a look at the Candle again a long tail candle look at the volumes that have come in i will again consider this as a test of demand that is going on at lower level this is not a bearish structure i will still read this as a shakeout structure that is developing over one to two days so i don't think that nifty bank you know is in any sort of a bearish structure just for for the next one or two days i think this is just a shakeout structure developing you can just look at the candles that have formed as prices moved lower not one strong closing has happened on the downside and this is again shaking out a lot of people who have gotten today i'll keep this update very short because i just saw this a breakdown happening again this is where a lot of people will be thinking that their decision about exiting here was right exiting here was also right but if my reading is correct this is again a further shakeout structure developing again i would tell you that the overall structure has strengthened over the over the next one or two days again take a look at this 30 minute candle long tail forming within the long tail candle we also have a gap here entire structure so we may still sort of consolidate here but i just don't see any meaningful supply coming below the v-vap indicator this black line is the vivap indicator here so i'm not closing out my positions it is 33 484 yes i'm already in about you know 133 points loss per lot this is completely fine i don't i don't mind this i'll now shift the stop loss again at this level i want a decisive breach of this of this low point with a wide range candle that is the only way i am going to exit my positions in loss so this in my opinion is again a shakeout structure there is nothing to fear look at the advanced decline advanced decline must have worsened little bit no it's the same 141 to 15 so market is overall very strong let us just take a look at nifty bank so this is how you build conviction and control your emotions in the market it's not easy it comes with practice nifty bank again let me try out so again there are 10 advances to decline so there is nothing to worry here federal bank and bandhan bank are the two banks that are down so the best performing bank is idfc icici hdfc kotak access so i mean the market is fine that is what even nifty bank is fine as of now and i'll again check back in some bit if you look at the broader market metal is doing exceptionally well i t infra it's a broad based we are seeing today especially after the kind of sell-off that we saw yesterday these things happen over the extreme short-term in the market and what i am particularly interested in about again you're seeing some sort of movement there's no decisive breach of this level and a lot of traders exit their positions prematurely so i'll try and do one more update this is just a quick three four minutes update that i was doing just because the breach had happened and i wanted to record this in real time just to show you this is how you need to learn to control your emotions this is nothing but a shakeout structure developing within a larger flag pattern here we've just tested the low point of flat pattern earlier low point was this much so you know even this can be tested this particular low point here but i will still read this as a shakeout structure that is developing over the next two days that is how i'll read this overall the structure of nifty bank is is not ideal it is still forming a structure of lower high and lower low so if on tuesday we gap down this is taken out it's completely fine i'll simply accept that but the way it is i only go by the evidence that is suggested by the market and as of now the evidence tells me that this is just a shakeout structure and we are definitely heading higher something like this is coming in nifty bank whether it comes in the form of gap up that i don't know but this is nothing but a shakeout structure developing so again i'll try and record back closer to 3 p.m let's say if something does not change and then i'll make another quick recording so i'll again check back in some time guys so welcome back guys it is now 3 7 in the afternoon and just about 20 minutes left for the market to get over and there's no structural change as such a nifty bank from a one to two day kind of point of view this is a nice flat pattern that is developing i think even on monday we might that is on tuesday just consolidate some bit and have a breakout if the global markets do well we can break out with a gap also but this structure is that of accumulation and i'll make this point here this is not a distribution structure we won't see a down move at least for the next one or two days we'll have to obviously review things from little long time frame point of view because structure is still lower high and lower low but i think definitely we are heading into this region at least 34 400 34 200 so still there are about 800 900 points left on the upside and before i end this video if you just look at the broader market this is a nifty bank first advanced decline is still 10 is to two which is really good 10 stocks advancing two are declining and only something like indus and bandhan bank or in the negative if you take a look at something like securities in fno 134 advances in decline 21 last time we tracked this was 142. so not much deterioration has actually played out in the market which is really good i want to check with respect to nifty 500 also let us see if we have nifty 500 data here i don't think we have nifty 500 i think we have nifty 200 so we'll just check for nifty 200. with the nifty 200 if you see we have 163 advances in 35 declines so so it's completely you know fine in terms of short-term momentum in the market i just feel that a lot of buying has happened in nifty bank today this is in accumulation structure and we will see further up move in the market vix is also down eight percent today which is good and a lot of key stocks in the market see cci we were discussing that is further moved up by another four percent even tata steel we were discussing various tata steel tata steel has moved up six percent now so a lot of good stocks have picked up today momentum wise and metals was already a strong sector the strongest sector in the market currently and this is this is really a good from one to two day kind of view we'll obviously update as the market as the structure evolves because on little shorter time frames we are still forming a structure of lower high and lower low so with respect to what i showed in nifty the kicker pattern that i explained i'll just open up the daily time frame chart i think it was on future symbol so that actually has not materialized so this is not a confirmation because you're getting i'll remove this arrow you're getting some sort of long vic also so this is not exactly a kicker pattern but it is still relatively bullish because price has moved away from yesterday's low point in a gap fashion you're seeing some supply ahead but that is fine the overall structure still remains valid and heading into tuesday see tuesday is a holiday a lot of people will not be taking positions today and this is another psychological point that i want to touch upon if i see such structure forming i just go ahead and take the position because it's a on a 30 minute timeframe chart i have a gap here i have two long tail candles here some sort of flat confirmation this is a this is a beautiful structure for me just for one to two days and i definitely look into carrying out these structures into the week and of course global markets will play a role here we can head down also i don't know the stop is defined here if you get a nasty gap down that is also fine because these things happen in trading and mentally you have to be prepared for this especially if you are carrying positions some loss of momentum today has come into the its sector which is fine i mean iit sector is also one of the strongest sectors in the market so these things do happen periodically but overall i'm satisfied with the at least in the short term how the market has moved and i'll again begin recording on tuesday morning let's see i hope or i sincerely think that we are going to get a strong opening on tuesday so even if that fails i'll completely accept that and then we'll re-analyze the market as the structure evolves so that's the end of today's recording again i'll see you on tuesday depending upon how the market opens i will make my remarks
2021-03-27 22:22
