eXcentral - Trading the Euro with the EURX

good evening ladies and gentlemen my name is michal is after me and i'd like to welcome everybody to today's webinar here at xcentral today we're going to be specifically looking at trading the euro we're going to start off by looking at the basics surrounding the euro we're going to be looking at inflation employment and the european central bank and we're going to be looking at the very basics and then we're going to actually get started at looking at more advanced techniques such as price action such as looking at different time frames and looking at the charts themselves so we're going to concentrate uh on a specific type of uh strategy today where we're gonna be looking at uh trading the euro euro pairs but instead of using solely these types of charts and looking at indicators on the european charts no matter what type of assets it could be whether it's the euro usd or the euro against japanese yen it doesn't matter as long as it's the euro but we're not only going to be looking at those charts we're also going to be looking at the charts of the euro x for those of you who are not aware of what the euro x is do not worry if everything's going to be explained throughout the webinar within regards to what it is how you can use it and how you can benefit from it in terms of your analysis now if you do have any questions throughout the webinar you've got two options you can either ask the question through the go to webinar software in which case i will answer the question live on the webinar but if you don't feel comfortable doing that uh please feel free to send me an email this is my email address here and of course i'll come back to you with all the relevant answers so as always i'd like to do a very quick introduction uh very quickly just for those of you who have never watched one of my webinars previously and then we'll actually get started at looking at different elements within regards to the euro so i'm the market analyst here at accenture so i can assist with anything which is related to trading itself so if it's related to for example at price movements within regards to the market strategies exposure levels risk management and if it's related to trading if it's something to do with changing your password resetting passwords something to do with the website or anything like this i'm not the best person to speak to you can contact the support team through the live chat option on the website and they are available 24 hours a day very quickly a bit about my background i originally started off as a financial advisor in the uk i've been trading for about eight years now and hold the cmap license which is a uk-based license and a seisek advanced as well so if anybody in general does feel the need to get into contact with me and maybe look at look at a couple of strategies a couple of techniques uh or anything which you may be struggling with uh feel free to go into contact with me uh very quickly before we actually get started on uh with the webinar uh of course i want everybody to be aware that here at central we are dealing with investments now where there are investments that of course is the risk to the capital you are investing as there is with all investments it doesn't matter whether you are trading stocks currency pairs commodities no matter what type of investment is there's always a risk to the capital you are investing so this is the reason why we have our risk information on the website we've got it on every single page on our website so the information is clearly there read through it make sure you understand it make sure you're comfortable with before proceeding to a full investment last thing before we actually get started with uh trading the euro with uh the euro x so the content in this video is for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice accenture assumes no responsibility for any potential errors inaccuracies or emissions in this material nothing in this communication contains or should be considered as containing an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purposes of purchase or sale of any financial instrument any views or opinions presented within this material are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of eccentric and that's otherwise specifically stated on uh on the webinar so what i'm trying to say is part of this slide is that these webinars are here for educational purposes only so we do a lot of educational webinars if you go to youtube and type next central you will actually see there's hours and hours worth of educational material however these videos are solely here for educational purposes they're not there to give you direct financial advice so bear that in mind so let's actually start looking at the basics of the euro and the euro x before we actually start looking at uh price movements and charts and different time frames etc so the euro is the second most traded asset in the world and the the euro against the usd is the most traded currency pair the euro x is an index is known as an i acid so the index is basically the euro which is valued against four currencies so when you're looking at euro currency pairs on the platform you're always seeing two currencies you are seeing the euro with another currency now when we're looking at the euro x we're looking at an index so it's giving you the value of the euro against four currencies and those four currencies are the pound the us dollar the japanese yen and the swiss franc so you might be asking yourself why exactly would i need to be looking at the euro x well in a generic answer and throughout the webinar you're going to get a much better understanding of why it's important but more generically uh looking at the euro x is going to give you a fairer and stronger price and valuation of the euro overall why because when you're looking and let's say at the euro against uh let's say for example the japanese yen and you may be looking at the charts and it may be doing something like this and the euro might be massively depreciating against the japanese yen however that doesn't necessarily mean something negative is happening with the euro it could possibly be something to do with the counter currency could be to do with the japanese yen uh all the counter carrying currency in which you are trading it with so when you're looking at the euro x it is going to give you a value against four different currencies so it's more likely gonna give you a stronger fairer and truer valuation and price movement of the euro and you're gonna be seeing today exactly how you can do that when you're analyzing the market euro currency pairs are known to be one of the most volatile in the market so of course we're not going to be looking at for example at exotic uh euro currency pairs where they're extremely volatile but when you are comparing it with let's say the japanese yen the australian dollar the canadian dollar we're looking at a more uh volatile currency now of course volatility can be good because for there to be pit movements and for it to be movements for us to trade and speculate there needs to be volatility it's massively correlated with interest rates inflation and also the performance of the us dollar so there is correlations there and we're going to be looking at that slide by slide as part of the webinar so bear on there with me we're going to look at that in more detail something to bear in mind as well the euro have been increasing since february of this year of course that's not every day this is generically speaking we have seen the value of the euro massively uh increase however it has declined over the past three weeks so we need to look today at the price movements since we've had the covered 19 crisis economic crisis should we say where we have seen the euro increase in value generically but we're also going to look at the past three weeks where we've seen a complete change in the trend we can look at the price at movement and see how exactly that has been affecting the price of different assets different currency pairs over the past couple of weeks now the european central bank is a major player within regards to the value of the euro and there's specific reasons why i'm choosing to have a look today at the european central bank at employment and also at inflation these generically are three major statistics one of the most strongest correlated releases which are related to the euro and generally speaking with most currencies however i'm specifically chosen to talk about the euro today and these three announcements and economic releases because this week is going to be one of the most important weeks in terms of the forex economic calendar for the euro why because we have the european central bank speaking on two occasions uh including on wednesday and thursday on friday we have over 10 announcements which are related to pmis which we're going to look at in more detail uh in the next slide as well so it's going to be an extremely volatile a lot of movements within the week and we're going to have a lot of announcements coming up within the week coming up and this is why we've seen a lot of volatility today and on friday as well and this is what we're going to be looking at later on in the webinar where we go in a bit more depth at looking at the currency movements now the european central bank is always going to be a main player why is it going to be a main player because they're going to be continuously commenting on inflation and what is healthy inflation what their inflation predictions are for the near future and longer term aims as well they're going to be speaking about interest rates which is directly and very very strongly correlated with the price of the euro as well so what exactly do you need to be doing throughout the week when the european central bank is speaking what most traders are trying to do is they're looking at specific comments by the president of the european central bank christine legate now she's going to be commenting on employment on inflation on predictions on these two statistics how they're likely to develop in the coming months and also going to be looking at how this is going to be affecting affecting interest rates now don't forget when interest rates are going up we are very likely to see some positive movements or some support within regards to the price and valuation of the euro when the interest rates are dropping and going down we are likely to see a lot of strain on the price and a lot of the time and you're welcome to do as much research on this as possible uh you're likely to see downward trends and the devaluation of the currency so this is why it's very important to look at central banks because they're the people and individuals that are going to be commenting on what we're likely to see in the near future of course if we're seeing dovish comments then we're most likely to see some strain on the price of the euro whereas if we're seeing uh hawkish comments then we are likely to see good movements or at least support and rumors going forward so let's actually look at the employment within the european union so this is an unemployment rate of countries and regions which have adopted the euro so we're not taking into consideration currencies that may be or partly be in the european union but i'm not using the euro so we can clearly see ladies and gentlemen what has been happening since the current economic crisis we have seen a very sharp increase in terms of the unemployment rates okay not such sub sharp increase when we're comparing it to united states of america but yet uh when we're looking at the characteristics of the european union it is a sharp increase especially when we're comparing it to the near past however what we have seen when we did see it peak in july of this of uh 2020 is that slowly slowly we started to see recover now bear in mind this recovery isn't uh strong compared to what we've seen in america where we've seen the rate drop by one percent two percent three percent we're looking at a steady drop of zero point one percent however we are seeing it drop every month which of course is positive and it is working its way back to figures which were seen in that may and june as well now what people and traders do need to be cautious about and we've already seen this happen in the uk uh where we have devastating employment figures and also the us as well where we also didn't see the greatest employment figures as well bear in mind that the european union has not yet announced december's employment unemployment figures so better to mining when we're looking at other regions we did see negative a negative outcome in terms of the announcement so bear that in mind so we definitely need to see what's happening in december when most of the european union was in lockdowns and have restrictions in place and look at exactly what is going to be released is it going to take a turn in terms of the trend of the recovery and also how's the euro go how is it going or likely to react to that uh announcement and then of course we're looking at inflation that inflation generally speaking has always been a major issue in europe especially in the last few years because when we have seen growth and have seen healthy inflation we normally tend to see it for a couple of months maybe a year a year and a half and then we tend to see it drop to unhealthy levels again when we compare this to for example the uk uh or for example america where they tend to see healthy inflation for years and years this tends to not happen so much in the european union however we have over late seen interest inflation rates sorry uh in regions close to the european union's target of two to two and a quarter percent bear in mind healthy inflation tends to be deemed traditionally as between two and two and a half percent but of course that may differ depending on the region you're looking at however again what we can see is uh after covering 19 crisis economic crisis we saw a massive drop of where it dropped and the heart of under uh to half in terms of the inflation rate we saw a slight increase as we came up to the summer months but then after that dropped even lower so when we're comparing an inflation rate of zero points of 1.7 which is very close to the target to 0.2 percent and possibly this even dropping further in december because very much december has not been released yet then of course it's down to you in your analysis of how globally personally that is likely to affect the value of the euro now let's look at the euro throughout the day and for traders uh i've got a couple of questions from traders and i'll answer that those now uh is there a chart available for the euro x uh yes the charts there is a charts available for the euro x it's available on most platforms is available also on google if you just type in euro x chart it comes up with multiple websites which have the charts available uh and i've got another question are we going to look at the euro x charts as part of today's webinar yes we are so we're definitely going to do that if you bear with me in a couple of slides we're actually going to start to look at the euro x charts now the euro throughout the day now this is just a couple of bullet points for traders which haven't been active today uh basically as an overview of what's been happening today in terms of the euro especially for our new traders because i can see there is a lot of new traders here watching tonight's webinar so the european currency is one of the most declining currencies throughout the day today and also in on friday as well so better to mine as a first the european currency is falling against most world currency this is due to the dire situation in terms of the coronavirus pandemic yesterday in germany we had 1244 deaths that's on sunday uh from the virus which is a new record and bear in mind germany and what is happening around germany and also france tends to have a very strong effect on the euro why because these are the two of the biggest current uh economies in the european uh union now the authorities have announced that current quarantine measures could be tightened up to completely stop public transport and other services again i'm sure you can imagine what kind of effect this is going to have on the european economy uh bundesbank officials said today that the german economy is managing to maintain stability but could face a serious uh recession if it measures uh to contain the spread of the caroma virus uh except extended again so current measures and we're referring to the lockdown and economic restrictions if they do continue uh in the short to medium or possibly longer term then it is gonna unstabilize the german economy and bear money is the biggest economy within the european union and germany tends to have one of the biggest effect on the valuation of the euro the euro is at a seven week low this is a massive uh a massive information piece of information in terms of the price movements i can see a gentleman has questioned with regards to the price movement of the euro and the euro is at a seven week low so that is something we haven't seen since uh early march where we saw the euro drop in value for several weeks and actually be at a seven week low so this is something we're going to look at today as well now what i've got here is one of our signals now this these signals are available to everybody on the website the signals are very easy to get a hold of you just simply go to the website you type in ex and you go to accenture's website sorry you click on uh analysis you click on charts and analysis not they need daily analysis but chart analysis and it will take you to our signals now this is the latest signal uh which is related to the euro against the usd now what this signal would do is it will display the chart the price movement which let's say it looks something like this and they'll put a pivot point uh on the charts where they say any movements above it you should be looking at buys and any movement below it you should be looking at sales this is number one so firstly they give you a pivot a pivot point which is extremely important because you know what direction you're going to be trading in and of course as the price continues to move and then of course they'll give you a signal which is currently active now and of course give you two targets where that price may go according to the analysis and the signal is updated every two hours so of course there's volatility and there's different movements in the market the market is continuously moving in different directions but of course bear in mind the movement the signals are updated every couple of hours so keep an eye on those signals if you wish to use them and trade based on what trade and central analysis analysts are providing now this friday like i said wednesday and thursday but as we're coming up towards the end of the week we've got a number a lot of speeches announcements and economic releases now friday is gonna be one of the most critical days out of those three days why because we have over 10 announcements on that one single day now pmi reports pmi reports uh is one of the main reports which are likely to be released on that uh on this friday now pmi reports a lot of people have been messaging me today in the morning saying that we got this announcement p9 reports i'm reading up on it but i don't quite understand what it means and if it's important now pmi reports in a very basic way of explaining it is a report that is produced by different surveys based within that specific industry of 750 major purchase managers and it's a report where they doing survey surveys and reporting on specific business conditions now we're going to be looking at employment we're going to be looking at production new orders uh prices of goods supplied deliveries and also inventories so it's a very generic it's not a specific report which concentrates on one area of the market but generally speaking it's a report which is a survey based on 750 major purchase managers where they're going to be commenting on business activity and conditions within within that economy now it is a major release it is going to have a lot of volatility in the market uh based on past performances and it's also like it's also based in terms of volatility the higher it is the better it is in terms of the price movement now the lower it is the most likely it's going to have strain on the actual price movement now we also have monetary policy this is going to be released uh throughout thursday and friday uh this is of course going to be released by the european central bank there again they're going to be uh releasing their monetary policy they're going to be releasing their interest rates which is majorly uh which is mentally correlated with the value of the euro and also there's going to be a speech and a conference with the president of the european central bank and of course that is the area where they're going to be excuse me where they're gonna be at speaking and answering questions uh within regards to interest rates what's likely to happen to interest rates going forward gonna be speaking about economic activity within the eurozone employment and inflation as well so very quickly for those of you who have not previously watched one of our webinars we're gonna look at start looking at the charts now of the euro x and also uh euro pairs as well we're gonna add two indicators to the charts and we're gonna add moving averages uh a moving average sometimes known as an m a is very simply an average price in terms of the price movement of a specific period now you can have a 10-day moving average you can have a five day moving average or 20 day moving average it's completely up to you but depending on what period you're putting in into the indicator it's going to give you an average movement it will appear on the chart like this it's a line like this for example now we're going to have those in the charts when we're looking at today's analysis then we're also going to look at stochastic oscillators and stochastic oscillators also have two moving averages so we're going to be looking at those as well they're indicators which help us on two things number one they help us when the price is oversold or of the boots which basically means it's too high or too low or increased or decreased too fast uh and that indication is given when the two lines are above but over boots is saying it's increased too much or too fast or when both lines are below for example here which is saying it's oversold then we're also going to have indications in terms of the price movement when you get the blue crossing over the red like so it's giving you an indication of a downward movement when you get the blue crossing the red upwards of course you're going to get an indication of an upward movement so that's what we're going to be looking at today's chart now something else we're all going to also going to have a look at is the price swing theory now when we're looking at the price swing theory we're going to be looking at the price movement itself not taken into consideration indicated now we're going to be using a mixture of indicators and price swing theory now when you're looking at the price and we're going to look at it on the next slide you will notice the price tends to do something like this now these are known as swing price uh price swings and you see there's multiple swings continuously on at the price movements and on the charts like so what we're going to be doing is analyzing the price movement based on swing so as we get to movement like this what we're doing in terms of price swing theory is we're straight away anticipating there's gonna be a pullback there's gonna be a retracement why because when we get movement strongly in one direction we know there's going to be a retracement so when and as the retracement happens we're going to draw our swing high here now as it crosses over like it does exactly at this point here and we know uh based on this theory that we're having a continuation of the trend and then as we get that second swing we draw a line again where it retraces back and then of course we get as we get another crossover like so we get another indication of the upward trend we wait for the retracement again we draw our swing high if we get another uh breakouts bullish breakout so an upwards breakout we know the continuation the trend continues now if we then start cross below the previous swing low then we know that there's a lot of movements against the trend and either the trend has ended or we're going to get a change of the trend and especially if we start to perform uh swing lows and we get more and more swing lows like so then of course we're instead seeing a downward trend so we're going to be using a mixture of the two now the first thing i want to have a look at is the euro x so this is based on one of the platforms which i found on the internet i haven't choose anything from uh our actual platform in terms of the euro x because of course i want to demonstrate that it's very easily found and you can easily go to google type it in and it will give you the euro x chart now i'm looking at a four hour in the four hour time frame now based on this the euro x analysis is very simple and basic i've kept it simple and basic especially for our new traders now based on its simplicity and how basic it is it can be equally more effective now we've got a 30-day average price movement which is this price here now when we've got price movement below so for example in this area here like we have recently over the past several weeks we're looking for movements downwards we're never looking for movement upwards we are only looking at downwards movement now when we've got movement which is above like for example here we are looking for movement upwards so it is very simple and basic and some of the analysis of the euro x now this euro x is the value of the euro against four different currencies it's not giving you a value against one currency it's giving you the value against the euro the us dollar the swiss franc the pound and the japanese yen at the same time we're looking at the stochastic costuming term in terms of the stochastic escalator we ideally don't want it to be oversold this is ideally okay and of course we wanted to be crossed over downwards so for example there it's crossed over down here crossed over down here as well so we've got multiple crossovers so at the moment very very clearly we can definitely see we're looking at downward trends why because the price movement is below the 30 day average price means so let's have a look at the euro against the usd it looks very similar why because this movement is massively due to the decrease at decreasing euro and of course that's what you want you want it to look similar why because you want to be trading the euro devaluing based on the euro devaluing not on the second currency the us dollar devaluing further okay now let's have a look at the japanese yen at the four-hour time frame okay now this is an index of the japanese gin so we're looking at the japanese yen and the japanese eggs now this basically means like the euro x it's giving you a value of the japanese yen against four other currencies now the reason i've got this here is because you can use two currency indexes you don't necessarily only have to use one so we looked first at the euro x index now the euro x index very clearly so showed us that the euro was decreasing value sentiment was very bad and it was also slightly over sold here we've seen something completely different we've got the japanese yen we've got a 30-day moving average here we can see very clearly here that it's massively gone up and back and if we are looking to use uh price action movement we can definitely see our major significant price movement here and it's crossed over upwards and then we've got our price movement here as well that's a major significant price movement based on the swing and you can see again it's crossing over upwards so we definitely see a trend upwards in terms of the japanese yen so recap we've had the euro x where the movements down and the japanese yen where the euro where the movement is upwards now let's look at the euro against japanese yen so for our time frame again what i would recommend is checking also on the 30 minute time frame or possibly the one hour time frame or even better both as well as the four hours make sure you get in the same indications so refer between two or three time frames now what we can see that if we were earlier on in the month when we first got this invitation and of course this is the latest indication the latest movement that we've had we can very clearly see here that we had a downward crossover so the orange crossed the green downwards the orange movement average is a three-day exponential moving average and then the green is a nine-day simple moving average so we've got a downward movement so we can clearly see there that the movement and the indication is downwards so we tick that then we can see here that the stochastic oscillator has also crossed downwards so again indicating a downward trend again that's the same indication and we're not at this area here anywhere near of assault so we know there's not going to be any support in terms of the price there so we took that again so a quick recap we've looked at the euro eggs we've seen how the ux has dropped below that line we've looked at the japanese yen you can see japanese yen has crossed about then we look at the charts itself the euro against the japanese yen and we look at the crossover the moving average and the stochastic oscillator and we make sure all these indications are directly clearly uh directing in the same direction that the euro will devalue against the japanese yeah so and we can clearly see since that area here so we say this point here we can clearly see that it continued to devalue for one and a half weeks and you can see how much it has devalued by it hits a seven week low so you can see how this analysis and way of looking at the margins using currency indexes like the euro x as well as the analysis of the euro the european central bank pmi reports which are released are going to be released later this week monetary policy interest rates etc but also the euro x and also you can use the second currency index as well for example the jpy x as well and you can see how this is assisting you to look and analyze the market so that brings us to the end of uh today's webinar hopefully you found it informative and educational if you do have any questions feel free to get into contact with me this is my email address here feel free to contact me and i will of course come back to you with all the information in the meantime trade safe trade responsibly and of course if you do need assistance feel free to get into contact with me in the meantime have a good evening and trade responsibly thank you

2021-01-27 12:37

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