Bitcoin day trading – The best Elliott wave analysis – Episode #54
welcome this is bitcoin day trading the best elite wave analysis episode number 54. today we are going to talk about the plunge we had in btc and we will assess the possibility that btc has buttoned that the flat expanded correction is over and that we could be heading for new ultimates but first let's talk about trading so what i want to tell you is that trading is something where you are exposed to a lot of risk and you cannot take a too big position if you if you bet too much money on one single position you will get broke you will lose all your money i've tried doing this collection twice to catch a button and the first time i did i realized that it was that my position was wrong that it was not a bottom and i could correct and i went out not a break even but close to break even and then i tried it a second time because again my outlook went from bearish to bullish so i tried a second time to catch a bottom and that was that was a yesterday i think or two days ago and then today we did get the plunge and the um the drastic price degrees we had now and but and this time i was sleeping so i could not correct my position and i woke up to uh uh now it was a winning position but now it turned into a losing position my stop-loss uh um which for the current trade is also my limitation point it's not always the case but for this right now that's the case did not get hit but it's right now a losing position well why do i tell you that um just that you know that even if i if i'm good at elliott wave even if elijah wave is the best indicator it won't work 100 of the time and sometimes you realize it quite soon and then you exit at break break even or with a small loss which was my last time i i tried to take a long position and sometimes like this the my current position you end up with a bigger losing position but in any way in any way in any in any case it does not matter it does not matter because it is only one percent of the capital i i'm taking for day trading and swing trading it's only one percent of that capital and if this one percent gets this time is a losing position it does not matter at all i'm not upset about it i don't feel bad about it um the only thing i ask myself is did i follow my rules um was my my entry position dictated by my worlds and my words are and my indicators fisher and eliot and if yes if i followed my rules i'm happy with it even if if it turns out being a loss so i'm just telling you that because it's just one percent of the capital i'm using for for trading and i also can tell you that i try to increase that capital so i have an amount of money that i place on a trade right now and that's the amount of money that i can lose on the trade so it's the amount of money that might be lost if my stop-loss gets hit or in when my stop-loss is my reputation point if my duplication point gets hits it's the amount of money that i can lose on a trade and i try to increase that amount so when i feel comfortable with a new amount i increase it i i go 50 on top or 100 on top of the of that amount then then my exposure is bigger but that's a gradual process i'm i'm go i'm going slowly slowly to my goal which is to with time feeling comfortable enough to take bigger and bigger positions and it's quite complicated because as you can imagine if you risk let's say a couple of hundred usd on a position it's not the same thing as risking a couple of thousand and a couple of thousand is not the same thing as risking up a couple of ten thousands and so on so but with time um if as soon as i feel comfortable about it i will expose i will increase the amount of money that i'm risking on a position but anyways for the current position it is only one percent not of my capital but only of the amount i'm willing to expose to to to day trading and string trading and scalping it's only one percent of of that amount so so i could lose um i could have a hundred losing position in a row and only then would have we walk and that's not even the case because it's only my the capital i'm using for trading and next to that i also have a capital that i use for investing so i'm i'm just telling you that and so that you're clear about the thing that to me it does not matter if the current if my current position ends up being a winning position or a losing position if it's a losing position i try to cut to catch a button i did not manage it and i i'm taking a loss but that's fine with me because i know that that might happen once twice if i if i really bad luck it will happen three times in a while but then um one and by that but question of time until i'm right and i'm when i'm right and then i have a swing trade to the upside which i ca which i catch um close to the low and which goes to new all-time highs and i will double um maybe five ten times uh the amount i'm i'm trading so even if if i get two losing trades and then i make 10 winning trades it does not matter or if you never make three losing trades and then i make a 10 winning place it does not matter so for me it it has it it is not the end of the world if if i lose on the current position and that's important in trading you you must know that it's a game of probabilities that you won't be right all the time that all you have to ask yourself was my decision um was my decision um from a technical point of view correct indeed i follow my rules that's what you have to ask yourself at the end the result is fortune who decides if you make money or lose money and from time to time you will lose money and from time to time you will make money that's perfectly normal as i told you a couple of times i'm expecting myself to be one twitter two times out of three and to be right three times out of uh out of three so if i get if i do ten trades i expect myself to be wrong four times on 10 trades and on 10 trades i also expect myself to be right six times and i make money because i'm right more than i i'm wrong and also when i'm when i'm right i let the position run and i make more money than when i'm wrong because when i'm wrong sometimes i can realize it quite soon and i only make a small lot and i only take a small boss or even exit with a small profit that also happens so but the thing is when i'm right i make more money and i think that i'm right more then i'm wrong so it's just to but the important point i want to get over across is that it's only one percent of the amount i'm willing to trade and i would even be fine if i lose that that entire amount which i think i mean i would must i would i must be extremely unlucky because i'm ma i must be wrong 100 times in a row to lose my entire capital that i am trading but even if that's the case i would be fine with it it would not destroy my life i would not feel bad about myself of course i would ask myself question because if i'm wrong that that amount of time then there might be something wrong with my trading system but even if it's the case it would not change my life i still can pay my bills i still can live as i did before and i think that's important you cannot take risk with with with the outcome of of which you could could not believe you cannot take um too much risk i try to increase my risk but it's a gradual process and and it must make sense and it must and it must be possible and with the results i get so it's a it's a critical process it takes month it takes years to increase my position size every every two month or every every month when i feel comfortable with one amount i try to increase it to a higher level and because of because because i want to increase my exposure but that's a gradual process and and by that i mean you should start with a small amount and work you your way up to a big amount and one day you you when you're an expert in trading you might be able to to trade to risk on a position um 10k or even 100k depends it depends on on your capital or how much money you have and how much money you willing to expose to risk on a position but that's a quite well process you you you don't start with risk with this can um 10k on a position that's not how it goes you start small and you work yourself up to a higher level once you feel comfortable that's at least what i do and that's what i would recommend you doing too now that being said we'll take a look at the charts so first i have to show you my disclaimer just that you are aware that the risk involved in trading and that we are talking about with a risky business it's not a given thing that you make money you also can lose money and end up sitting on a losing position and if you're interested in my services i offer live eight wave updates you will receive one two three updates a day i think it always was three no maybe yesterday was only i think it always was more than three maybe yesterday it was only three but uh but most of the time it's even more than three but i only problems one two three updates a day that it's during the week from from monday to 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technical and you should you should learn a lot i personally if i would if i was not always if i was not creating um if i was not the author of the live aid with updates i would personally subscribe to it because i found i find it a very useful service that being said let's jump into the charts so we'll start with the three-hour chart and on the three-hour charts i've now relabeled it one more time this uh correction was a little hard to pinpoint at the bottom because because it was in it gave conflicting signals which made you believe that the question was over when it was not the case but now i quite like how it looks at least the wave c and and with a and b looks fine too so now we have a wave one two and the wave two subdivides into a wave uh double b x and y and then you get a wave three and a wave four three and four and three and four subdivides also into a double ray wave x and y so there's some symmetry between the the wave one two between wave two and wave four and um i find that quite interesting also normally you you look for a sideways collection and then a sharp correction but here it's a little hard to say which one is side is sharp and which one is sideways um but anyways i find it quite interesting that we have a wv x y in wave 2 and a double b x y in wave 4. so i find that good looking and now we are going to talk about the price level we have reached right now so there are a couple of things i want to point out first that here you have wave and that that's the level where you where the price reaches 53 909 and we went a little uh below it but we reach at least that level so that tells me that the correction could be over because normally it's this uh um the most likely point where for the retracement is the bottom of waveform that's a guideline and we've reached that level now so that tells me that the correction could be over and the second thing and that is quite interesting is that we we went we came very close to the fibonacci retracement 0.5 so the 50 percent fibonacci retracement which is at 53 281 so we came very close to that level as you can see here and that also tells me that the correction could be over number three is here and the 50 percent retracement is that level here 53 281 so we came very close to that level that also tells me that we that the correction could be over so right now i'm still labeling it as a bearish count as a main bearish count because i need to see further evidence that the correction is over one clue and that the correction could be over would be if fisher turns bullish but right now it is still bearish so so that would be an indication would not be the only one that i'm looking for but it would be one indication efficient terms bullish and if we look on the smaller time frame so here you have uh the wave three and the wave 4 and the collections of divides in a wb x and y and then you can label it as a wave 1 2 three four and five for the wave five of c or four so you could label it like this and if that is correct then the button would have been 53 uh 242. uh i mean 2024 53 524 that would have been under bottom so but right now even on the small time frame it's still uh from if i only look at fischer on the 30 inch timeframe even fisher on the 30-inch chamfer is still bearish so i need at least the fischer to turn bullish on the 30-minute chart and then on the three hour chart and that level uh 53 524 must hold so that could be the case it could we maybe it's not the case and we go a little lower but if we if the that level breaks then the next level would be where wave 5 equals one point six one eight times wave one um i have to check if that's still correct or if that's if if that was from an odd labeling so i could do it now or i could do it later but i have to check but anyways um let's see if i have any other level yes here i'm not sure about the first one i'm not sure about wave five equaling um i have to recalculate it since i i changed the labeling this might not be correct anymore so i have to redo it i have to see if way 5 from here to here equals 1.6 times wave 1 so i have to see that i have to recalculate it and that takes a lot of time so i won't do it live but i have to take um that amount i have to put it here and then i have to if a a flip extension and see if i get that level so i'm not sure about that but what i'm sure about is the is the 1.618
a retracement of wave 3 and that would be at 50 k 55 27 so if this level does not have will not hold then the next level would be 50k 55 27 but for now i can it looks like if it can hold it looks like if 53 524 could be the bottom as long as it's not violated and we get some um impulsive price action then i would be more confident in it so we have to see what happens um i think i leave it for that for today i talked about the main points i wanted to get over to you people so i can leave it with that as always thanks for watching and hit the like icon also leave me a comment i like reading them especially when they are kind comments and make sure that you have a second way of communicating with me you never know if one day it might be useful so subscribe to my free telegram group it's free on the free telegram group right now not so much is happening because most people are talking in the private group but still still subscribe to it just to have a way of communicating with me a second way of communicating with me and if you're interested in the private group let me know i provide you the instruction how to become a member or if you want to take a look at an example of my analysis i will provide that also to you that's it for today i'll maybe make an update on monday to start a week and then on next friday again uh i think if i do two a week and one on the start of the week and one at the end of the week that would be not too bad so maybe if i feel like it and want to do one i'll do a next update on monday anyways thanks for watching have a nice weekend and see you next time bye
2021-11-28 12:34
