ADVANCED MASTERCLASS $BTC Market moves explained - 9/13/22

ADVANCED MASTERCLASS $BTC Market moves explained - 9/13/22

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thank you foreign   what's up what's up good evening good evening  friends it's great to see you it's great to   have you joining me here tonight it is what is  it Tuesday September 13 2022 and of course and   big chats I'm a chart nerd I like to follow price  I like to trade price I don't really care what   it is it doesn't to me it's it's easier to just  think of it as just it's just numbers on a chart   I don't really take anything seriously um kind of  in the course of my career that has has helped me   to kind of just look at the price and consider  just pretty much assume everything is a scam   um trade momentum trade support and resistance  folks let me know if I can hear you uh please   let me know if you can hear me actually um in the  chat room I'm reading the chat room I'd like to   hear uh you know where you're from let me know  where you're where you're joining me from this   is a worldwide thing uh many of you are you know  staying awake here in Europe and other parts of   the world so it's great to hear you uh we see just  a few of these coming in here uh greeting from   Brazil it's great to hear you thank you so much  I'm just getting my mic uh in position Michigan   as well London shout out from the UK uh from  Daytona Florida Nigeria Argentina here we   go folks so this is what we do it's kind of a  worldwide thing so um anyway just honestly thank   you thanks for hanging out um let's get this party  started so on big chats you find me on Twitter   um I'm the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons  every Trader should know uh there's four formats   you can get the book for free on my YouTube  there's a playlist this is YouTube chess Trading   tons of free Alpha check out the uh trading wisdom  50 lessons playlist something that's really cool   and I think is um underutilized is Twitter spaces  so I've been I'm hosting a lot of conversations I   have what is this 13 videos already these  are like an hour and a half two hour long   um ask me anything section segments if you're a  new Trader if you're you know brand new to trading   you gotta listen to this hi hi Chad's India  Portugal Germany Argentina Texas North Carolina   California Vermont fantastic I love it Arizona  thank you so much these are awesome conversations   these are it's just people it's just me talking  like I'm talking to you now people asking me   questions which kind of you know chewing the fat  shooting the [ __ ] however you want to put it   um and they're fun they're great I learn a lot  um I think they're they're constructive so check   these out check out the Twitter spaces check out  the rest of the playlists of course I'm a founding   Analyst at Bitcoin live it is the best in class  it's the best it's just the best world-class team   I've been doing videos there Market updates for  four years I mean there's nothing like it and it's   it's it's ridiculously cheap if you ask me um  anyway in terms of the it's just it's just a   great really great value I'm really proud of that  so what I want to do tonight I have all these   um tabs open these are tweets that I want to  point to and I want to kind of walk us through   uh Bitcoin daily chart I want to kind of walk  us through the last few um a few weeks of price   action you know I've been changing my studio  I've been traveling I've been doing stuff I   haven't really done a video update I've been live  streaming these Twitter spaces and some people   are like ah what's this these are awesome these  are is this ridiculous free Alpha so don't like   take this seriously these are this is unbelievable  they should have tons of views it's only like a   thousand views each that's ridiculous you people  are lazy um that's some great value um so but this   I haven't done these these these videos in a while  where I essentially explain tweets I want to kind   of catch up on what bitcoin's doing last time I  did a video uh quick market update was um let's   see the most recent one is going to be at the  bottom and this this will scroll that'd be great   what do we got 913 I sent top oh that's I guess  I was watching uh some you know this is my core   top five moments that says watching um somehow  that got into that playlist but I'll deal with   that later it was about a month ago it was on 8  11. so let's take a look at 8 11. we're back here   boom right around the top and what were we talking  about here we were talking about the rising wedge   um and you know when I try to do is I try  to make it plain speak as much as possible   um you know when people are listening especially  on YouTube I don't know what your experience   level is so I'll try to make it a much plain  speak but we had essentially the price bouncing   um you know resistance support and then we got  into this kind of pattern here and this is all   the backdrop for this was that ethereum hello from  Italy great to see you Florida thank you so much   um hey thank you this Twitter spaces are  great think you can uh you know this is   like you know pre-merge hype on bitcoin  and I think Bitcoin really propped up   um ethereum probably propped up Bitcoin you  know kind of with the hype what was going on   at this time is we were observing this bearish  Divergence you know the higher highs in price   lower highs and the on balance volume that's  incredibly problematic so my last update was   August 11th right before we topped off but I  was looking for for a topping here somewhere   um August 11th we had that gravestone doji so  let's do this um what I have here is I have two   views I kind of have this marked up from just like  Bitcoin live videos and just kind of I have that   ready to go kind of levels marked out what I want  to do is take the first tweet so and by the way I   forgot to mention my third book is coming out  later this year uh trading quotes I think it's   a great cover the artist is world of Rusty it's  cool like you can see the different years like   you're learning your lessons it's quote on  the postcards um it's like journey of travel   trading journal to chart I just awesome cover  the book's really cool I'm really proud of it   I'm work I work on it every day if I I every  day I do a little bit no matter what I work   on it every day and I'll be ready for you soon  so book three right Christmas release probably   um so here we go so what do we say here so BTC  clean off the daily eight that's the EMA eight   we've talked about it exponential moving average  uh more sensitive to short-term price movement   um and a strong close of 40 minutes to go note  the price still stands in the shadow of the   gravestone doji that's interesting all right so  let's talk about that so what I'll do is I'll   copy it I'm going to go over here boom and see  what we're talking about right here so we're   just a day after the doji and it's a before the  close and I'm basically remarking because I have   remarked hey we have a gravestone doji and then  still a follow-up to that as wow you know nice   response up into that but it's in the it's in the  shadow of the doji and so you think about Japanese   Candlestick signals the best entries come on the  retest of the range so if this is a short candle   you don't really want to short here you want a  short kind of bounces up and retest the middle   to the upper part of the doji and hopefully it  continues down under kind of an easy to trade   you know type of scenarios that's the kind of  the general idea of how you want to approach a   Japanese Candlestick reversal signal same would  be true in Reverse if this was you know flipped   upside down it was a dragonfly doji you know right  here normally you'd be looking not to buy up here   you're looking for to come can I come back and  retest it maybe even you know double bottom   so going back um and we'll just get rid of that  so we were talking about the following day so   what did I say I said and I'd like to explain my  tweets because people say oh you're too you're   too vague I can't like every tweet can't be a  textbook like at some point you know you have   to either want to learn so clean off the daily  eight what does that mean well bounced uh here   we go right off the daily ema8 boom right  off the eight okay clean off the daily eight uh should note the prices this is what I'm saying  I'm trying to say like um temper your expectations   we're still in the shadow of the doji we're still  trading within the range of a reversal candle so   you really want to be careful at least until we  break that candle okay and I say here Candlestick   Theory teaches us the best entries come from  the retest and then I have a couple pictures   there's the gravis and you know the gravestone  doji yada yada yada okay um let's go next tweet   so this is this is where I'm like okay this  is ridiculous I said I've never I don't think   I've ever seen this you have triple negative  Divergence regular meaning reversal Divergence   um as opposed to um you know a hidden Divergence  which is which is a continuation Divergence   so here triple Divergence where we had the higher  high another higher high another higher high   lower high lower high lower high and  it's on on balance volume you can trust   it way more than RSI which is in my opinion  overused misused um it's also you know not   an opinion it is a bounded oscillator  has a fixed limit that's why you get   um false false uh Divergent often you got to get  to wait for at least like the second Divergence   um with RSI so anyway I'm pointing out here look  I've never seen this before this is ridiculous   we have triple negative Divergence right here I  said not a healthy look all right and I started   looking for shorts here for sure I I basically  said to myself I can't ignore this I mean it's   gonna top off here I've never seen triple negative  Divergence usually double negative is is like 80 I   mean this is triple is ridiculous um that was here  in the 13th and what was interesting if you you   know look back what happened at what happened  um afterwards uh let's see boom what happened   afterwards we had an outside bar the following  day which is a reversal candle signal let me   get another outset bar double outside so this is  a very very academically it's very interesting   these these five candles you know both you know  Candlestick and and classical charting you know   Western and Eastern ta right outside bars that's  not Candlestick Theory right that's classical   charting but in the gravestone doji and then you  have the up thrust it's just very very interesting   five candle combination for someone like me who  kind of you know watches these things um you know   you can call it reading the tea leaves so there it  is there it is right there's this tweet I've never   seen this before and I said it's not a healthy  look and it's basically like this this is not good   um and of course you know a lot of skepticism  and I get it you know uh not to not to be ignored   whatever okay so let's move on not to kind of um  Pat myself in the back but it's fun when you kind   of uh something that that obvious plays out and  then here we go August 14th so what am I saying   here Chad what does this mean well I'll explain  it to you right now boom day after all right I   can read it easier I'll just read it in here uh  or maybe I'll show you easier to read here now an   outside bar this is like this is like okay pay  attention this is really not good like we just   confirmed the fact uh that it's not good right at  this point okay outside bar after in advance it's   really important because you know every CA every  signal is context if it's an outside bar okay   rock paper scissors what's an outside bar it's the  piece of paper wrapping around the stone and the   stone is the moving up the outside bar envelops  it it's squashing that momentum often leading   to a reversal and you know it doesn't an outside  bar if it's just sideways who cares it's a chop   range but a move up into boom an outside bar right  that's an outside bar after in advance so this is   context I'm giving you context here's more context  you could also also Confluence combining upper   Bollinger band which is where you want to see a  reversal signal okay so uh that's unbelievable I   mean this is this that's what I said it's such a  really interesting set of candles I mean look at   this I mean this is ridiculous you should see this  in a textbook and you could you could write about   this forever um you know the gravestone doji  the up thrust the outside bar you're like okay   like this is a really you see this and you're  a bull you you have to be taking profit moving   your stop loss up you're in like this uptrend  is in major danger when you see these signals   um November and I you know typo thanks to it or  I can't edit November Earth what's November Earth   Chad's it's November 10th November 10th  candle shown for comparison I showed you   uh what we had when we topped off at 69k we  had the outside bar after an advance with an   up thrust this candle broke up above the prior  High created the outside bar um so we've and   then so I'm basically showing you here like this  doesn't look good here's a comparison be careful   um you know check your Perma bear but this  is like a big spot right that was a big spot   all right what do we have next we have double  2x outside I mean I don't know if I need to   show you on the chart it was the next day it  was immediately the next day we had another   outside bar which is ridiculous I'll show you  in the chart anyway I mean this is ridiculous   2x outside so this after we had another  outside bar so outside bar outside bar I   mean that's that's ridiculous triple negative  Divergence and these up thrust outside bar   um and then outside down we're starting to  break below the range looking to close below   the prior close uh looking like it's confirming  these signals we've been looking at for the   last three days so like this like the top was  tattooed uh this local top was tattooed with   signals I mean there was just there was no way  to say there's no you know you can't say what   you could that you couldn't see it coming I mean  there was paying attention off this doji you're   really paying attention you're watching the price  retest the range then you get the up thrust then   you get the outside bar and the double outside  is ridiculous and the Divergence I mean so um it   was a very well you usually don't get this this  well defined um top of Channel okay uh let's see   uh let's see next up 2x outside down um here  we go and here we go follow through you see   the rising wedge Illustrated now I've  I've drawn for you here's what I've done   let's copy the Tweet what I've done is that  early fall through on those outside bars um and I've said at upper PB after in advance  to contacts and contact with the word context   I was trying to really try to be educational not  all the time um I don't always give as much as I   can every tweet because I can't do it all the  time I get burned out okay but here's a tweet   where I'm basically trying to like teach you  something I'm teaching about context here's the   context early follow through on the outside  bars and we're breaking this Rising wedge   um and then but what I do though and if you look  in the image what does this mean right hlhl HL   high or low I'm showing you the progression  I'm showing you I'm putting the keyboard   down because I can talk about this for a second  I'm showing you the progression of higher lows   you need to stair step to build a trend you  know in in Japanese candlesticks there you   know Rising Three valleys but just it's a  stair step where you create a resistance   you break up above it it becomes support you break  up again above it again that becomes support and   along the way you have a higher low structure so  Bulls need to defend these higher lows because   the loss of the high or low structure shows a  loss of momentum it's evidence of a weakening   Trend and your job as a technician is to ride  the trend watch for science of weakening that's   why we watch our higher lows higher highs we'll  look for deviations over you know prior to find   resistance levels that are broken and then lost  so I'm still I'm I'm saying yes we've broken down   already you need to start watching these higher  lows that's what that is and this one right here   this last higher low is the most important level  on the chart right now still uh we dealt with it   today I'm gonna much of the rest of these tweets  talk about this level HL high or low with the top   of this move right at 22.5 that was the higher  low and what was interesting about this move I   don't have the Tweet here but I talked about  it a lot um in Bitcoin live videos where you   noticed the the change in the texture right of  this consolidation range right here right here   in August let me show you on the chart a little  more interactive um you notice right here so you   notice that the texture of the consolidation had  changed because from all these prior higher lows   we're going to move to the upper Bollinger band  higher low moves upper Bollinger band higher low   moves I'll bronzer band higher low okay and  we immediately went into a lower time frame   equilibrium or tightening range of consolidation  and that point we noticed that the structure of   this range had changed that was an even earlier  sign than the gravestone doji right so you started   to notice you can look at these things you can  understand that's a loss of momentum yes Bulls   did eventually win that that tightening pattern  but they were forced into it I mean these prior   ranges you didn't do that boom boom boom higher  low we go back higher low and then here's the   last higher low and that's the level you're  watching that's when the price structure changed   22.5 this low here a lot of people use this low  that was not important I think that's a mistake  

that was just kind of a lonely a lonely candle you  wouldn't use that candle wick you've got much more   Confluence right here obviously taking that law  we take this this you know long like doji boom   so it's kind of obvious this is the level to watch  not right up here right whatever that was like 22   7. um this was the level to watch right 22 5 22 6  right there so there you go what do we have next   first study it's worth observing this is very  interesting as well so I pointed it you know in   this consolidation range outside bars have played  a key role in this correct it was a corrective   Channel what is a corrective Channel this is  correction it's a correction after move down right   this is a corrective Channel that's a corrective  Channel this one a little bit longer it's a much   stronger relief rally than we saw here move down  corrective Channel move down corrective Channel   and we're still morphing into a larger range you  know we can talk about that later but this is the   corrective Channel and in this corrective channel  the outside bars so we talked about a moment ago   um you know by the way if this stuff  is confusing you need to go to my   um YouTube playlist and watch the tutorials Master  Class these are ridiculous video like that this   you you won't believe how like how much you'll  learn I lay it all out you got to watch these um   I I did these to make it easier so I don't have  to keep answering every question over and over   again on Twitter like this will teach you 90 of  your 90 of your questions to be answered in there   so take a deep breath outside bars right we noted  here boom outside bar After Decline at the lower   ball instruments the opposite of we have just  observed here if you look at this way it's an   outside bar at the upper Bollinger Band After  in advance right which is exactly what we had   up here the signal I talked about a moment ago  high or low boom what do we have another outside   bar at the lower Bollinger band after an advance  so I'm remarking here uh for study I'm remarking   here that's interesting and I'm also kind of  pointing out like you know like we probably   still have some downside left in the tank uh given  the kind of strength of those signals these these   outside bars led to pretty strong moves um and you  know at a minimal at this point it's 23. at that   point it was it was still it was like 80 90 you're  gonna go to at least 22.5 I mean you knew you were  

going to test 22.5 based in momentum right once  you topped off you have to test the higher low   bullish ones and lower bearish upper bubbles  both after strong move into so that's what I'm   pointing out to outside bars I'm always I'm always  paying attention to outside bars but you can't   over interpret them it needs to be um kind of the  right context right that's incredibly important   just checking in the chat room everybody's doing  well I tried telling it's all about Alpha brother   uh I can confirm extremely  educational I appreciate that   and thank you so much hey I appreciate that I  try to put out value I can't do this all the   time there's some great YouTubers who come on  every day they make funny faces and they tell   you what you want to hear I I can't just do this  every day like you know in my life and you know   I I give it all I got to bitcoin live twice a  week so I can't just I can't be doing this all   the time either so thank you though I appreciate  the feedback so here we are focus on and basically   I'm building up hopefully you're understanding as  I'm going through this these slides this lecture   you know kind of digesting or dissecting  the last few weeks of price action kind   of building up to that higher low I've been  talking about boom now I'm drawing it for you   what have I been talking about in the last few  tweets and I say here as well continue to focus boom let's see right there have a little bit  boom and that's right here somewhere in this   candle it's before um it's actually before we we  broke down because you see we actually broke down   later in that day so this is before we broke down  during that candle I'm telling you this is as the   price is dropping you know I could I could go into  one hour and show you but that's not the point you   can see it in the image right we hadn't broken  down yet we're 22 8. I'm basically saying watch   this level right we have the daily I made 50 here  did I mention that yeah boom daily ma50 Confluence   Confluence means in addition or you know combining  together like you you want a bearish signal at you   know with multiple data points strengthening that  signal it's it's bumping up into the you know a   key resistance moving average resistance and a  horizontal level for example something like that   um you know upper Bollinger band is is a big one  you know for Candlestick Theory so and then lower   Bollinger band and July is high well-defined level  this is like pay attention I don't really do this   like you know thing a lot it's kind of pretentious  um but this is like pay attention I'm trying to   teach you something right and this is what it is  loss of higher low would suggest range low retest   this is at like do you know 22 8 at this point I'm  saying if we lose this level we're going to like   17 18 5 19k that's range lows this is range lows  on The Daily it's not literally not low but these   range lows losing this level right here suggests  we're probably going down there that's what it   says that's what I'm saying that's exactly what  happened because it's momentum it's understanding   what the price is telling you the price is telling  you this level needs to hold it's the higher low   you know we've identify we identified all along  the way the higher low we talked about it okay   got a bunch of these to go let's try to punch  through these before this um it's already been   24 minutes so all right logical spot now  here's what's interesting I'm basically   saying I could be broke through but I I'm you  know and we're way below the lower Bollinger I   think we should probably bounce here at least  a little bit and what I'm thinking is Bounce   and you now you look for an Underside retest  now that we've broken the higher low you have   to immediately switch in your mind and understand  that if we bounce I want to fade that move I want   to short any balance up to that level and if it  breaks it then I can go long because that then it   recaptured that level and that move below uh uh  you literally nailed the 18 level swing country   as well thank you I appreciate that yeah I mean  it just made sense it just made sense intuitively   um you're looking for a bounce into the underside  now of broken support okay and so let's look at   what happened there basically saying though  it's a logical spot to pause because tangible   pausing consolidate yes we've broken down  but I'm saying well maybe we can bounce and   it should bounce but I think it didn't didn't  have that strong amounts so this is right here   uh where was the price what did I say we were  right at like what 21.4 so uh we were right up   here it was right in this range it actually went  lower I mean I'm not perfect I'm basically saying   we should probably bounce here and we had a  bounce but it was weak I mean look at this   bounce only up to 21.8 I don't think I found the  tweet I should have I should have um darn yeah  

I should have I should have found it because I  basically said it looks like it's not even strong   enough to bounce up and do a pullback which is  an Underside retest right of the broken uh of   the broken support level right I'm like man this  is weak it's not even strong enough to do that   that was a really bad sign I mean You observe  that that's your job as a chart technician that   was another big clue I mean you're not ignoring  that okay um you shouldn't be ignoring that right   um so so we I you know we couldn't even make  it all the way back up there but I was but   I was saying that we should probably  bounce and you know and retest this   um because it still was decent strength I mean  to go from 17 5 to 25 you know okay that's that's   some strength that's a pretty solid relief rally  so I was expected to find support here at the kind   of top of this ascending triangle it had broken  out of and it did but it was just such a weak   bounce and that was interesting and then EMA eight  it's uh people always ask me Chads why do you use   ema8 it's like I don't use it the price does  like I just respect I just respond to the price   and here we are in the daily chart and lo and  behold we have a very vanilla very ABC kind of   a a trading 101 type of uh lower Bollinger boom to  ema8 type of a relief rally and oftentimes you'll   do that and kind of continue down wow Jason  thank you so much that's unbelievable Jason   um hey uh thank you man I you folks make this  possible I love doing this thank you for that   for that feedback um wow that's uh but em so  ema8 right ema8 is primary resistance or its   primary support right that's that first level so  I flip it upside down and this is a breakout right   on the retracement you're looking to buy at ema8  always it's incredibly strong if you look at the   Bitcoin moves um you know that the big move up to  64k most of the moves at the beginning stages of   acceleration these the minor retracements will  bounce off the eight you always watch the eight   and you know look at this look at the ema8 how  sticky it was the price couldn't break couldn't   close above it rejected rejected rejected  rejected rejected I mean that's ridiculous   uh you're the man brother that's ridiculous  look at that ama 8 right so you know before   we even test it for the first time in  this range you're thinking okay EMA eight   I'm gonna start to you know look to take  long profit and Longs move my stop loss up   uh that type of thing EMA must be respected  it's not that I use it the price does and   that's the point boom ema8 and I'm drawing here  for you we've initial rejection and up thrust   we have volatility candle the long leg dodgy it's  a pretty weak look this is not a good look right   here right this this kind of five six candles um  it's not a good look at that point and here we go   all right what happened here um this is a  couple days later and oh and this is me just   kind of milking this good call I'm human I'll  milk my good calls I'm basically saying I'll   be obv bear Divergence thank you so I was kind  of I quoted back to the call where I said not   a healthy look I mean what you know I'm human  I get it I still it's fun it's fun to you know   I'm human we'll leave it at that so here we go  and I'm basically saying look we are now sweeping   below range lows it looks like that happened here  and boom we were starting boom we just broke the   local lows so this is after and it's just fun when  technical analysis works because we spotted this   top happening like in real time we followed the  signals we saw it break down we understood where   to fade the mean reversion and then we watched  it break the range lows and so it's like we're   in control you can feel in control because you're  following the trend you're trading with the trend   um you know and it makes sense um wow  thank you I don't know what what dop   is but sweet thank you ten Credo  uh you folks don't have to do that   um but it's it's nice it's a nice way to show it  just showing up is great like I just showing up   um and and talking in the comments and sharing the  videos and and when I do spaces I wish more people   would ask questions I love talking to people  especially if I've never talked to them before   um it helps me learn it helps me learn how to  teach it helps me I can learn something from   everyone and um it's great for sentiment  so just obviously thank you for everything   um this is just like a big love type of  show uh thanks for my teacher thank you   thank you I think you'll like the third book I'm  really proud of book three so thank you so much   so look the price uses ema8 um and then we're  breaking range lows so it's nice to kind of   follow the trend you so you can kind of feel in  control at this point and in this point you still   have right above you 20 you know this this level  to watch 22.5 so you kind of understand you're now   consolidating below this big level and even though  we've just broken down at this point you still   also know hey I'm still long back up above 22.5  okay boom boom boom ema8 below level and then here   we go it's the next one and another day another  EMA eight another day let's see it cleared up   and that's not what I want to do let's go there  let's go there let's go there another day another   EMA eight so that's I mean look at that I mean  it's ridic it's ridiculous do I do why do you   use EMA like I don't use it it's the price I was  looking at the price and rejected brain breakdown   and then another another bounce EMA eight like  what are we talking about is this the magic is   it magic no I'm it's just an exponential moving  average it's more sensitive to short-term price   movement and it works you watch it you're  trading Bitcoin pretty much everything but   especially Bitcoin right um and then I basically  said in the next video another day I bet you said   if you're trading this and not watching daily  email you are literally asleep at the wheel   there's no excuses look at this thing it's it  was unbelievable this is a couple days later   yeah I remember I remember getting fired up  about this where I was like I can't like like   how can you not be it's just watch the eight  look at the prices telling you your job you   need to listen to the price like don't pick your  own moving averages have the same moving average   for every chart you look at and then when the  price tells you to pay attention to one of them   do it ema8 works don't use all of them use  the eight fine or use the 12. you can do 12   26. I use 834 I don't use the 26 because I'm I'm  using the middle Bollinger the ma20 the simple   um you know and by the way again all  this stuff is just in this playlist   go to the tutorial master class  I explain all the moving averages   right again if you get confused about anything I'm  saying so it's like hey pay attention use the ema8   and so this is really interesting some of you may  remember this this is when we started to form this   descending triangle so it's a little bit later  and this is after um you know kind of all these   uh at these further rejections and it's you're  kind of observing that the price is dropping and   remember I don't know if you guys remember guys  and gals folks remember you know every time it   dropped down here we found buyers right we started  to find buyers every time it dropped down here if   you go to the four hour chart it was a little bit  better Illustrated we had a descending triangle   descending triangle with a flat base of support  you kind of actually draw it this way let me   just there you go oh Chet how can you ignore this  you're not ignoring it it's captured in the trend   right there's no line there is only a trend so  you understand a trend line is about identifying   a trend a trend not identifying a line and this  is just a little bit of move above the line but   it's basically still price action captured  within this trend line and you more or less   have a falling level of Supply that means more  anxious sellers right a descending hypotenuse   right a right angle triangle descending hypotenuse  with a flat base of support right look at that   it's what's your measure move height of the  triangle boom right right down to basically   18 5 18 6. it would I mean this this whole  move down from 25k was super textbook I mean   it was ridiculous and and basically what was  interesting though is you're watching you know   either the ema8 is going to break because it's  rejected or this this base of support is going   to break so you kind of know what to watch you  say one of these two things will give us a clue   um you know because you could bull break break  from here and you could bounce up very easily and   test you know you know the top top of this prior  consolidation pattern but you're going to watch   those things too this is an interesting tweet  and I want to talk about this so what is that   Chad what's a w it can still w What does that mean  what does that mean it can still W four hour daily it can still W this is like  right here at the bottom   it can still W because what I'm telling you is  you know we can still dump it's a double bottom   but a double bottom this I'll show you what I'll  show you what's not a double bottom all right boom   like that's not a double bottom that's two tests  that's two thrusts that's just that's just two two   tests in an area a double bottom is when it comes  up breaks above the peak this is the peak this is   the peak this is the trough you have time interval  between the troughs um you have time interval   between the Peaks it's valid in classical  charting height measured move right A B C   very simple stuff so you look at double bottoms  you have variations of a double bottom or a w you   know we talked about the atom and Eve we don't  have to do all this but in this context you're   thinking about three types of W's you're thinking  about the W with the higher low which I think is   not as ideal because I think it's less likely  to it's counterintuitive because it actually   I mean it suggests that there's more demand but  for my feeling not my feeling just my experience   you need this I'll get the third type so that's  the first type higher low and you're the second   type same low Right double bottom pure and then  you have the lower low and this is per Bitcoin   been the money been the kind of the best one  with a slightly lower low you trigger all the   stop losses and then you go so we can still W I'm  saying we can still W even though this thing looks   terrible oh treasure you're getting bullish no  I'm basically trying to add context I'm always   trying to add context because I'm thinking about  consolidation within larger ranges within larger   ranges I kind of get I kind of have a sense of  I've contextualized everything it's as bad as   it looks it can still W lower low and the second  thrust is ideal for stop loss trigger and bounce   is what I'm basically saying you know the best  case scenario and that would help form a panic   bottom which we haven't had yet we haven't  had the lower we haven't had a panic bottom   the first low if we come back and go to like 16-5  and break we might be able to get enough Panic   um we wouldn't do it here but it would have  to be more like this it would have to you know   did it come back like that you have to get  and basically get the lower low if you get   to like maybe 16 5 that's the W with the lower  low your breakout still 25 25k you get a panic   bottom because everyone's like okay that's it  it lost 17.5 it's going to 12. but if it goes  

to like 16 and quickly gets back up above  17.5 then you have a spring right boom boom   lost support you come back above then you  get a spring so you get all this kind of   the potential playable scenarios you're always on  watch for that so I'm kind of looking at that and   thinking what might make what might make sense  you know because I've been talking about 12 to   14K uh you know since Bitcoin was around 40K  I mean since March on bitcoin live I've been   talking about 12 to 14K right but I'm still open  to the idea that we may not get there and I want   to know like what would be a scenario that would  give a panic bottom but also might get us there   so here we go boom and there's so basically  I talked about the descending triangle which   I just talked about before this is just a tweet  where me um and basically say hey we're working   on a descending triangle oh it would you know  invalidate around 20.5 so you want to kind of   think about any pattern not only where it confirms  but you want to think about uh when the pattern   would be invalidated uh thank you appreciate  that brother um so you want to think about   when the thank you best crypto content I'm just  being me so it's when it confirms like a Head and   Shoulder right when the when the right shoulder  invalidates or when it confirms neck Baseline is   broken I'm pointing out the pattern to you I gave  you this little handy chart what to look at yada   yada and then boom tags 6 18 675. so I'm saying  that this it even though it did go a little bit   lower I think 18 5 and basically saying this is  kind of played out you see right here like this   is kind of played out at this point we've  played out that move which basically means   you want to be on guard to start to look for a  bounce um you know back on bitcoin live I don't   know that I really talked about on Twitter  but back in Bitcoin live when we lost 22.5   was the daily chart and back and pick online when  we lost 22.5 boom I started basically saying you   know we don't really have well-defined support  but I think we're going to go to at least 18.5  

and it's essentially what we did so it's kind of  nice to see how that played out then you start   to look for about you got your spring boom and  then you know we'll get to what just happened   um so descending triangle descending triangle  has played out now we have five tweets left   uh six years off here we go escalator up elevator  down 60 days of price action wiped out in 23 long   grind up and then boom right back essentially  here 18-6 this is right back to range lows this   it's played out like this is you know you you  as as Peter Brandt calls it the popcorn trade   you know popcorn to the pan bounces up  boom comes right back down this is the   popcorn move the round Tripper um you know  60 days wiped out in 23. this is this is   kind of a more I'm giving you more strategy  right so this was interesting this is as   um ethereum and Bitcoin were both bouncing  again so this is right when was this   there we go oopsie let's go there let's kind  of get a little bit more granular so it's it's   like all right I'm thinking bounce here a little  bit you can see I'm thinking bounce a little bit   um but I'm basically saying you know given  the backdrop right um I'd rather either short   Bitcoin or long ethereum right I'm not I don't  want a long Bitcoin and I don't want to short   ethereum like I want to play both of these with  their Trends and their strength there at this   point had been relative strength in ethereum to  you know versus Bitcoin so I'm basically saying   um because they have a pivot right BTC at pivot  right what is BT pivot what does that mean 22 5   is the pivot um you know I'd rather fade BTC a  pivot and then close it and flip long and close   that BT she's short so basically this means like  let's say the BTC shortcuts failed fails and it's   a theoretical BTC long I'm actually gonna go long  eth Instead at that point because it had relative   strength the way things have been Trading so  it's one of those things where I'm only going   to play each of those only one way and I'm trying  to explain it uh in that sense rather than playing   both both ways right because I'm trying to trade  with the trend um and then here we go BTC visual   uh so I know I'm kind of glossing over this a  little bit I hope that point makes sense where   you know I'm still looking to fade  this I'm still thinking you know   if we bounce here I'm still thinking  that I'm looking to fade Bitcoin right   um you know I'm certainly looking to fade  here right on the underside of the descending   triangle definitely and you could have gone  long there because it makes this a spring   but so I'd rather short Bitcoin here but a  Bitcoin breaks from here and I'm thinking   the whole Market's gonna rise I'm then going to  shift to long in ethereum rather than long in   Bitcoin because I you know because ethereum had a  better bounce last time and has relative strength   right so you want to trade with the trend as the  point I'm making uh and then PTC visual this is   quoted another tweet and I basically said and so  I'm kind of setting setting kind of expectations   or I'm kind of talking about My Philosophy my  strategy here um and nope let's try that again and thanks for being patient 42 minutes we're  wrapping up this is a very long one this might   even be like a I might even put this in the in  the master class webinars but it doesn't you   know we'll see um so at this point we've bounced  a bunch right around 20.3 but I'm basically saying   I'm trying to set expectations  this is really important okay and I'm quoting and then visual so I said the  words I'm like well people don't know what I'm   talking about so I drew the visual basically said  here's the pivot and I pointed out the arrows   this was the support resistance rejected right we  talked about that triple Divergence outside bars   this was the initial uh the initial resistant  that was broken failed to hold even uh Morning   doji Star bounce came back it did hold and now  it's a level we're watching it that's the higher   low high or low higher low higher low that was  the higher low so on the way down for Bulls it   could very easily you know catch a bit here it'd  be it would be a very logical spot for the price   to Pivot and bounce that's the pivot but now that  it failed it's resistance and so we need to set up   these binary above and below levels where it's  bullish or it's bearish because we're trying   to structure our wrist or risk we're trying to  picture uh Define levels ideally the price price   is defined and and not us but we need to rather  identify levels that are momentum pivot levels   this is a momentum pivot level and basically  I'm saying even though we've had this ridiculous   bounce I mean this candle was uh was was absurd  it was beautiful this green candle was gorgeous   uh I wow right and it was after the um you know  after the uh after the spring recaptured the   low of the descending triangle beautiful follow  through and you're thinking wow I'm ready to fomo   but I'm I'm preparing a short I'm starting  to I'm thinking about shorting up to Route   22.5 because that's the pivot we lost that  level you want to fade I'm basically saying   like like let's keep it simple from  a trend following standpoint you want   to fade any move below 22.5 because it lost  that and that's the major pivot level and I  

talked about the fact the initial bear Target  from the loss of the higher low has been met   right so a mean reversion bound here is only  logical what does this mean yeah it makes sense   for us to bounce here because the descending  triangle played out and we already dropped   25 to 18.5 off of the the triple Divergence and  the outside bars this is what I'm saying this is   what I'm saying it's saying okay yeah like it's  not because it's not it's not a straight line   down this is basically saying we're probably  going to pause here and the price will extend   attempt to establish a w trough that means a  second low right the trough the low of the w above 22.5 watch W Peak what does  that mean oh Chad you're so cryptic   really I mean basically saying like you're  short uh you know you're short below this level   but if you're above this level we're  watching the peak peek of The W boom boom boom boom above here we're thinking  pay attention probably go long confirm add on   that break unknown texture or structure  of this of this trough maybe get a lower   low maybe it's here unknown but we're kind  of on Watt for some type of a w all right   and that boom there simple tread Trend falling  point and then boom here we go all right pay   attention this is uh you know what is that  five words five words with some numbers in   there I'm basically saying you know because I  know people have me on alert I'm not trying to   abuse that and this is one where you want to  have me on alert because I'm saying all right   you know this is it you know I'm telling  you this is it right this is the key spot   we're basically right here it's in this candle  let's see where it was boom right there right at   the top because it's 22.5 that's the key level you  know it's and we went a little bit higher but we  

topped off and what's interesting I actually got  caught on a long hair I went long and my stop loss   you know a stop loss is like you know 22.3 so  it's like a tiny a tiny a tiny loss but you   know I follow my own thinking what I've said you  know I follow what I say to you and I say above   22.5 what you know watch the peak I'm saying okay  I'm thinking above 25 we're probably going 24.5   25 Point K so I took that trade right it's 20  trying to fit flip it and it's flipping it I'm   long it was like 22-6 22 550 I took a long  right here but then I got stopped out right   which is fine I have no problem with that um you  know and what that illustrates is the fact that   that's a really bad sign that's a momentum  reversal you have the key resistance uh boom   boom boom it did this came back it held it you  came back below and it looked like you're about   to flip it again boom then it came back below  that's a deviation that's an up thrust that's a   big momentum reversal signal you pay attention  to and then the follow through on it was just   obscene I mean we had a we had a ridiculous candle  today um you know a pretty crazy standpoint uh   let's see uh WP and trying to flip 22.5 and then  this is back to really illustrating that level   um so that's let's see boom 22.5 so that's that's  I mean that's how it played out that was it you   know you got right up to the key level that's why  we watch uh that's why we watch these key levels   right that's why we watch these key levels and  it it's been it's kind of been fun to watch even   though it's it's been a bit of a wild ride you  know from the rising wedge the outside bars ema8   rejections the descending triangle descending  triangle playing out mean reversion rally   keeping in mind the 22 5K level then  all this price action right here   um at 22.5 flipping it and then failing to hold  it so that is that is what I wanted to say we're   48 minutes in that was a lot of fun I'm kind of  talking through uh thank you appreciate that Chef   uh that's uh hey good to see you my friend I know  you stay up late appreciate that I appreciate that   um and we're having fun thank you so much this is  textbook masterclass content faux show so listen   um I could go on longer I could talk about  ethereum we could talk about these altcoins but   it's it's 50 minutes and uh we'll leave it here  this has been an awesome show um I don't do these   a lot because I am a founding Analyst at Bitcoin  live I'm doing twice a week a full market update   there I I don't miss a video I literally twice a  week you're gonna hear from me whether you like   it or not I stop and um I give a market update I'm  just one member on a team it's a world-class team   if you're serious about learning how to trade if  you enjoyed this video tonight it's more or less   what I do answer all the questions uh from the uh  wonderful members um the author of trading wisdom   50 lessons every Trader should know you can  get it in four formats it's um narrated by   me in the audiobook so I would encourage you  to check that out um you can get it for free   on my YouTube check out the playlist I think I'm  going to do lesson 17 tomorrow I've got 16 of the   50 I'm doing one lesson at a time I'm going to  try to do lesson 17 tomorrow uh to get that out   um let's see and that's about it so listen uh  let's remove that folks I want to say thank you   I thank you I want to thank you for being patient  with me I haven't been doing these videos much   lately I've been kind of changing some things in  my life moving around doing this and that but um   I'm glad you joined joined tonight it's been great  to have you and I hope that you'll stick around   check out some of these other videos and we'll see  you next time so look at this dancing going and slide off into the evening in style   foreign

2022-09-17 06:50

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