ADVANCED MASTERCLASS $BTC Market moves explained - 9/13/22
thank you foreign what's up what's up good evening good evening friends it's great to see you it's great to have you joining me here tonight it is what is it Tuesday September 13 2022 and of course and big chats I'm a chart nerd I like to follow price I like to trade price I don't really care what it is it doesn't to me it's it's easier to just think of it as just it's just numbers on a chart I don't really take anything seriously um kind of in the course of my career that has has helped me to kind of just look at the price and consider just pretty much assume everything is a scam um trade momentum trade support and resistance folks let me know if I can hear you uh please let me know if you can hear me actually um in the chat room I'm reading the chat room I'd like to hear uh you know where you're from let me know where you're where you're joining me from this is a worldwide thing uh many of you are you know staying awake here in Europe and other parts of the world so it's great to hear you uh we see just a few of these coming in here uh greeting from Brazil it's great to hear you thank you so much I'm just getting my mic uh in position Michigan as well London shout out from the UK uh from Daytona Florida Nigeria Argentina here we go folks so this is what we do it's kind of a worldwide thing so um anyway just honestly thank you thanks for hanging out um let's get this party started so on big chats you find me on Twitter um I'm the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every Trader should know uh there's four formats you can get the book for free on my YouTube there's a playlist this is YouTube chess Trading tons of free Alpha check out the uh trading wisdom 50 lessons playlist something that's really cool and I think is um underutilized is Twitter spaces so I've been I'm hosting a lot of conversations I have what is this 13 videos already these are like an hour and a half two hour long um ask me anything section segments if you're a new Trader if you're you know brand new to trading you gotta listen to this hi hi Chad's India Portugal Germany Argentina Texas North Carolina California Vermont fantastic I love it Arizona thank you so much these are awesome conversations these are it's just people it's just me talking like I'm talking to you now people asking me questions which kind of you know chewing the fat shooting the [ __ ] however you want to put it um and they're fun they're great I learn a lot um I think they're they're constructive so check these out check out the Twitter spaces check out the rest of the playlists of course I'm a founding Analyst at Bitcoin live it is the best in class it's the best it's just the best world-class team I've been doing videos there Market updates for four years I mean there's nothing like it and it's it's it's ridiculously cheap if you ask me um anyway in terms of the it's just it's just a great really great value I'm really proud of that so what I want to do tonight I have all these um tabs open these are tweets that I want to point to and I want to kind of walk us through uh Bitcoin daily chart I want to kind of walk us through the last few um a few weeks of price action you know I've been changing my studio I've been traveling I've been doing stuff I haven't really done a video update I've been live streaming these Twitter spaces and some people are like ah what's this these are awesome these are is this ridiculous free Alpha so don't like take this seriously these are this is unbelievable they should have tons of views it's only like a thousand views each that's ridiculous you people are lazy um that's some great value um so but this I haven't done these these these videos in a while where I essentially explain tweets I want to kind of catch up on what bitcoin's doing last time I did a video uh quick market update was um let's see the most recent one is going to be at the bottom and this this will scroll that'd be great what do we got 913 I sent top oh that's I guess I was watching uh some you know this is my core top five moments that says watching um somehow that got into that playlist but I'll deal with that later it was about a month ago it was on 8 11. so let's take a look at 8 11. we're back here boom right around the top and what were we talking about here we were talking about the rising wedge um and you know when I try to do is I try to make it plain speak as much as possible um you know when people are listening especially on YouTube I don't know what your experience level is so I'll try to make it a much plain speak but we had essentially the price bouncing um you know resistance support and then we got into this kind of pattern here and this is all the backdrop for this was that ethereum hello from Italy great to see you Florida thank you so much um hey thank you this Twitter spaces are great think you can uh you know this is like you know pre-merge hype on bitcoin and I think Bitcoin really propped up um ethereum probably propped up Bitcoin you know kind of with the hype what was going on at this time is we were observing this bearish Divergence you know the higher highs in price lower highs and the on balance volume that's incredibly problematic so my last update was August 11th right before we topped off but I was looking for for a topping here somewhere um August 11th we had that gravestone doji so let's do this um what I have here is I have two views I kind of have this marked up from just like Bitcoin live videos and just kind of I have that ready to go kind of levels marked out what I want to do is take the first tweet so and by the way I forgot to mention my third book is coming out later this year uh trading quotes I think it's a great cover the artist is world of Rusty it's cool like you can see the different years like you're learning your lessons it's quote on the postcards um it's like journey of travel trading journal to chart I just awesome cover the book's really cool I'm really proud of it I'm work I work on it every day if I I every day I do a little bit no matter what I work on it every day and I'll be ready for you soon so book three right Christmas release probably um so here we go so what do we say here so BTC clean off the daily eight that's the EMA eight we've talked about it exponential moving average uh more sensitive to short-term price movement um and a strong close of 40 minutes to go note the price still stands in the shadow of the gravestone doji that's interesting all right so let's talk about that so what I'll do is I'll copy it I'm going to go over here boom and see what we're talking about right here so we're just a day after the doji and it's a before the close and I'm basically remarking because I have remarked hey we have a gravestone doji and then still a follow-up to that as wow you know nice response up into that but it's in the it's in the shadow of the doji and so you think about Japanese Candlestick signals the best entries come on the retest of the range so if this is a short candle you don't really want to short here you want a short kind of bounces up and retest the middle to the upper part of the doji and hopefully it continues down under kind of an easy to trade you know type of scenarios that's the kind of the general idea of how you want to approach a Japanese Candlestick reversal signal same would be true in Reverse if this was you know flipped upside down it was a dragonfly doji you know right here normally you'd be looking not to buy up here you're looking for to come can I come back and retest it maybe even you know double bottom so going back um and we'll just get rid of that so we were talking about the following day so what did I say I said and I'd like to explain my tweets because people say oh you're too you're too vague I can't like every tweet can't be a textbook like at some point you know you have to either want to learn so clean off the daily eight what does that mean well bounced uh here we go right off the daily ema8 boom right off the eight okay clean off the daily eight uh should note the prices this is what I'm saying I'm trying to say like um temper your expectations we're still in the shadow of the doji we're still trading within the range of a reversal candle so you really want to be careful at least until we break that candle okay and I say here Candlestick Theory teaches us the best entries come from the retest and then I have a couple pictures there's the gravis and you know the gravestone doji yada yada yada okay um let's go next tweet so this is this is where I'm like okay this is ridiculous I said I've never I don't think I've ever seen this you have triple negative Divergence regular meaning reversal Divergence um as opposed to um you know a hidden Divergence which is which is a continuation Divergence so here triple Divergence where we had the higher high another higher high another higher high lower high lower high lower high and it's on on balance volume you can trust it way more than RSI which is in my opinion overused misused um it's also you know not an opinion it is a bounded oscillator has a fixed limit that's why you get um false false uh Divergent often you got to get to wait for at least like the second Divergence um with RSI so anyway I'm pointing out here look I've never seen this before this is ridiculous we have triple negative Divergence right here I said not a healthy look all right and I started looking for shorts here for sure I I basically said to myself I can't ignore this I mean it's gonna top off here I've never seen triple negative Divergence usually double negative is is like 80 I mean this is triple is ridiculous um that was here in the 13th and what was interesting if you you know look back what happened at what happened um afterwards uh let's see boom what happened afterwards we had an outside bar the following day which is a reversal candle signal let me get another outset bar double outside so this is a very very academically it's very interesting these these five candles you know both you know Candlestick and and classical charting you know Western and Eastern ta right outside bars that's not Candlestick Theory right that's classical charting but in the gravestone doji and then you have the up thrust it's just very very interesting five candle combination for someone like me who kind of you know watches these things um you know you can call it reading the tea leaves so there it is there it is right there's this tweet I've never seen this before and I said it's not a healthy look and it's basically like this this is not good um and of course you know a lot of skepticism and I get it you know uh not to not to be ignored whatever okay so let's move on not to kind of um Pat myself in the back but it's fun when you kind of uh something that that obvious plays out and then here we go August 14th so what am I saying here Chad what does this mean well I'll explain it to you right now boom day after all right I can read it easier I'll just read it in here uh or maybe I'll show you easier to read here now an outside bar this is like this is like okay pay attention this is really not good like we just confirmed the fact uh that it's not good right at this point okay outside bar after in advance it's really important because you know every CA every signal is context if it's an outside bar okay rock paper scissors what's an outside bar it's the piece of paper wrapping around the stone and the stone is the moving up the outside bar envelops it it's squashing that momentum often leading to a reversal and you know it doesn't an outside bar if it's just sideways who cares it's a chop range but a move up into boom an outside bar right that's an outside bar after in advance so this is context I'm giving you context here's more context you could also also Confluence combining upper Bollinger band which is where you want to see a reversal signal okay so uh that's unbelievable I mean this is this that's what I said it's such a really interesting set of candles I mean look at this I mean this is ridiculous you should see this in a textbook and you could you could write about this forever um you know the gravestone doji the up thrust the outside bar you're like okay like this is a really you see this and you're a bull you you have to be taking profit moving your stop loss up you're in like this uptrend is in major danger when you see these signals um November and I you know typo thanks to it or I can't edit November Earth what's November Earth Chad's it's November 10th November 10th candle shown for comparison I showed you uh what we had when we topped off at 69k we had the outside bar after an advance with an up thrust this candle broke up above the prior High created the outside bar um so we've and then so I'm basically showing you here like this doesn't look good here's a comparison be careful um you know check your Perma bear but this is like a big spot right that was a big spot all right what do we have next we have double 2x outside I mean I don't know if I need to show you on the chart it was the next day it was immediately the next day we had another outside bar which is ridiculous I'll show you in the chart anyway I mean this is ridiculous 2x outside so this after we had another outside bar so outside bar outside bar I mean that's that's ridiculous triple negative Divergence and these up thrust outside bar um and then outside down we're starting to break below the range looking to close below the prior close uh looking like it's confirming these signals we've been looking at for the last three days so like this like the top was tattooed uh this local top was tattooed with signals I mean there was just there was no way to say there's no you know you can't say what you could that you couldn't see it coming I mean there was paying attention off this doji you're really paying attention you're watching the price retest the range then you get the up thrust then you get the outside bar and the double outside is ridiculous and the Divergence I mean so um it was a very well you usually don't get this this well defined um top of Channel okay uh let's see uh let's see next up 2x outside down um here we go and here we go follow through you see the rising wedge Illustrated now I've I've drawn for you here's what I've done let's copy the Tweet what I've done is that early fall through on those outside bars um and I've said at upper PB after in advance to contacts and contact with the word context I was trying to really try to be educational not all the time um I don't always give as much as I can every tweet because I can't do it all the time I get burned out okay but here's a tweet where I'm basically trying to like teach you something I'm teaching about context here's the context early follow through on the outside bars and we're breaking this Rising wedge um and then but what I do though and if you look in the image what does this mean right hlhl HL high or low I'm showing you the progression I'm showing you I'm putting the keyboard down because I can talk about this for a second I'm showing you the progression of higher lows you need to stair step to build a trend you know in in Japanese candlesticks there you know Rising Three valleys but just it's a stair step where you create a resistance you break up above it it becomes support you break up again above it again that becomes support and along the way you have a higher low structure so Bulls need to defend these higher lows because the loss of the high or low structure shows a loss of momentum it's evidence of a weakening Trend and your job as a technician is to ride the trend watch for science of weakening that's why we watch our higher lows higher highs we'll look for deviations over you know prior to find resistance levels that are broken and then lost so I'm still I'm I'm saying yes we've broken down already you need to start watching these higher lows that's what that is and this one right here this last higher low is the most important level on the chart right now still uh we dealt with it today I'm gonna much of the rest of these tweets talk about this level HL high or low with the top of this move right at 22.5 that was the higher low and what was interesting about this move I don't have the Tweet here but I talked about it a lot um in Bitcoin live videos where you noticed the the change in the texture right of this consolidation range right here right here in August let me show you on the chart a little more interactive um you notice right here so you notice that the texture of the consolidation had changed because from all these prior higher lows we're going to move to the upper Bollinger band higher low moves upper Bollinger band higher low moves I'll bronzer band higher low okay and we immediately went into a lower time frame equilibrium or tightening range of consolidation and that point we noticed that the structure of this range had changed that was an even earlier sign than the gravestone doji right so you started to notice you can look at these things you can understand that's a loss of momentum yes Bulls did eventually win that that tightening pattern but they were forced into it I mean these prior ranges you didn't do that boom boom boom higher low we go back higher low and then here's the last higher low and that's the level you're watching that's when the price structure changed 22.5 this low here a lot of people use this low that was not important I think that's a mistake
that was just kind of a lonely a lonely candle you wouldn't use that candle wick you've got much more Confluence right here obviously taking that law we take this this you know long like doji boom so it's kind of obvious this is the level to watch not right up here right whatever that was like 22 7. um this was the level to watch right 22 5 22 6 right there so there you go what do we have next first study it's worth observing this is very interesting as well so I pointed it you know in this consolidation range outside bars have played a key role in this correct it was a corrective Channel what is a corrective Channel this is correction it's a correction after move down right this is a corrective Channel that's a corrective Channel this one a little bit longer it's a much stronger relief rally than we saw here move down corrective Channel move down corrective Channel and we're still morphing into a larger range you know we can talk about that later but this is the corrective Channel and in this corrective channel the outside bars so we talked about a moment ago um you know by the way if this stuff is confusing you need to go to my um YouTube playlist and watch the tutorials Master Class these are ridiculous video like that this you you won't believe how like how much you'll learn I lay it all out you got to watch these um I I did these to make it easier so I don't have to keep answering every question over and over again on Twitter like this will teach you 90 of your 90 of your questions to be answered in there so take a deep breath outside bars right we noted here boom outside bar After Decline at the lower ball instruments the opposite of we have just observed here if you look at this way it's an outside bar at the upper Bollinger Band After in advance right which is exactly what we had up here the signal I talked about a moment ago high or low boom what do we have another outside bar at the lower Bollinger band after an advance so I'm remarking here uh for study I'm remarking here that's interesting and I'm also kind of pointing out like you know like we probably still have some downside left in the tank uh given the kind of strength of those signals these these outside bars led to pretty strong moves um and you know at a minimal at this point it's 23. at that point it was it was still it was like 80 90 you're gonna go to at least 22.5 I mean you knew you were
going to test 22.5 based in momentum right once you topped off you have to test the higher low bullish ones and lower bearish upper bubbles both after strong move into so that's what I'm pointing out to outside bars I'm always I'm always paying attention to outside bars but you can't over interpret them it needs to be um kind of the right context right that's incredibly important just checking in the chat room everybody's doing well I tried telling it's all about Alpha brother uh I can confirm extremely educational I appreciate that and thank you so much hey I appreciate that I try to put out value I can't do this all the time there's some great YouTubers who come on every day they make funny faces and they tell you what you want to hear I I can't just do this every day like you know in my life and you know I I give it all I got to bitcoin live twice a week so I can't just I can't be doing this all the time either so thank you though I appreciate the feedback so here we are focus on and basically I'm building up hopefully you're understanding as I'm going through this these slides this lecture you know kind of digesting or dissecting the last few weeks of price action kind of building up to that higher low I've been talking about boom now I'm drawing it for you what have I been talking about in the last few tweets and I say here as well continue to focus boom let's see right there have a little bit boom and that's right here somewhere in this candle it's before um it's actually before we we broke down because you see we actually broke down later in that day so this is before we broke down during that candle I'm telling you this is as the price is dropping you know I could I could go into one hour and show you but that's not the point you can see it in the image right we hadn't broken down yet we're 22 8. I'm basically saying watch this level right we have the daily I made 50 here did I mention that yeah boom daily ma50 Confluence Confluence means in addition or you know combining together like you you want a bearish signal at you know with multiple data points strengthening that signal it's it's bumping up into the you know a key resistance moving average resistance and a horizontal level for example something like that um you know upper Bollinger band is is a big one you know for Candlestick Theory so and then lower Bollinger band and July is high well-defined level this is like pay attention I don't really do this like you know thing a lot it's kind of pretentious um but this is like pay attention I'm trying to teach you something right and this is what it is loss of higher low would suggest range low retest this is at like do you know 22 8 at this point I'm saying if we lose this level we're going to like 17 18 5 19k that's range lows this is range lows on The Daily it's not literally not low but these range lows losing this level right here suggests we're probably going down there that's what it says that's what I'm saying that's exactly what happened because it's momentum it's understanding what the price is telling you the price is telling you this level needs to hold it's the higher low you know we've identify we identified all along the way the higher low we talked about it okay got a bunch of these to go let's try to punch through these before this um it's already been 24 minutes so all right logical spot now here's what's interesting I'm basically saying I could be broke through but I I'm you know and we're way below the lower Bollinger I think we should probably bounce here at least a little bit and what I'm thinking is Bounce and you now you look for an Underside retest now that we've broken the higher low you have to immediately switch in your mind and understand that if we bounce I want to fade that move I want to short any balance up to that level and if it breaks it then I can go long because that then it recaptured that level and that move below uh uh you literally nailed the 18 level swing country as well thank you I appreciate that yeah I mean it just made sense it just made sense intuitively um you're looking for a bounce into the underside now of broken support okay and so let's look at what happened there basically saying though it's a logical spot to pause because tangible pausing consolidate yes we've broken down but I'm saying well maybe we can bounce and it should bounce but I think it didn't didn't have that strong amounts so this is right here uh where was the price what did I say we were right at like what 21.4 so uh we were right up here it was right in this range it actually went lower I mean I'm not perfect I'm basically saying we should probably bounce here and we had a bounce but it was weak I mean look at this bounce only up to 21.8 I don't think I found the tweet I should have I should have um darn yeah
I should have I should have found it because I basically said it looks like it's not even strong enough to bounce up and do a pullback which is an Underside retest right of the broken uh of the broken support level right I'm like man this is weak it's not even strong enough to do that that was a really bad sign I mean You observe that that's your job as a chart technician that was another big clue I mean you're not ignoring that okay um you shouldn't be ignoring that right um so so we I you know we couldn't even make it all the way back up there but I was but I was saying that we should probably bounce and you know and retest this um because it still was decent strength I mean to go from 17 5 to 25 you know okay that's that's some strength that's a pretty solid relief rally so I was expected to find support here at the kind of top of this ascending triangle it had broken out of and it did but it was just such a weak bounce and that was interesting and then EMA eight it's uh people always ask me Chads why do you use ema8 it's like I don't use it the price does like I just respect I just respond to the price and here we are in the daily chart and lo and behold we have a very vanilla very ABC kind of a a trading 101 type of uh lower Bollinger boom to ema8 type of a relief rally and oftentimes you'll do that and kind of continue down wow Jason thank you so much that's unbelievable Jason um hey uh thank you man I you folks make this possible I love doing this thank you for that for that feedback um wow that's uh but em so ema8 right ema8 is primary resistance or its primary support right that's that first level so I flip it upside down and this is a breakout right on the retracement you're looking to buy at ema8 always it's incredibly strong if you look at the Bitcoin moves um you know that the big move up to 64k most of the moves at the beginning stages of acceleration these the minor retracements will bounce off the eight you always watch the eight and you know look at this look at the ema8 how sticky it was the price couldn't break couldn't close above it rejected rejected rejected rejected rejected I mean that's ridiculous uh you're the man brother that's ridiculous look at that ama 8 right so you know before we even test it for the first time in this range you're thinking okay EMA eight I'm gonna start to you know look to take long profit and Longs move my stop loss up uh that type of thing EMA must be respected it's not that I use it the price does and that's the point boom ema8 and I'm drawing here for you we've initial rejection and up thrust we have volatility candle the long leg dodgy it's a pretty weak look this is not a good look right here right this this kind of five six candles um it's not a good look at that point and here we go all right what happened here um this is a couple days later and oh and this is me just kind of milking this good call I'm human I'll milk my good calls I'm basically saying I'll be obv bear Divergence thank you so I was kind of I quoted back to the call where I said not a healthy look I mean what you know I'm human I get it I still it's fun it's fun to you know I'm human we'll leave it at that so here we go and I'm basically saying look we are now sweeping below range lows it looks like that happened here and boom we were starting boom we just broke the local lows so this is after and it's just fun when technical analysis works because we spotted this top happening like in real time we followed the signals we saw it break down we understood where to fade the mean reversion and then we watched it break the range lows and so it's like we're in control you can feel in control because you're following the trend you're trading with the trend um you know and it makes sense um wow thank you I don't know what what dop is but sweet thank you ten Credo uh you folks don't have to do that um but it's it's nice it's a nice way to show it just showing up is great like I just showing up um and and talking in the comments and sharing the videos and and when I do spaces I wish more people would ask questions I love talking to people especially if I've never talked to them before um it helps me learn it helps me learn how to teach it helps me I can learn something from everyone and um it's great for sentiment so just obviously thank you for everything um this is just like a big love type of show uh thanks for my teacher thank you thank you I think you'll like the third book I'm really proud of book three so thank you so much so look the price uses ema8 um and then we're breaking range lows so it's nice to kind of follow the trend you so you can kind of feel in control at this point and in this point you still have right above you 20 you know this this level to watch 22.5 so you kind of understand you're now consolidating below this big level and even though we've just broken down at this point you still also know hey I'm still long back up above 22.5 okay boom boom boom ema8 below level and then here we go it's the next one and another day another EMA eight another day let's see it cleared up and that's not what I want to do let's go there let's go there let's go there another day another EMA eight so that's I mean look at that I mean it's ridic it's ridiculous do I do why do you use EMA like I don't use it it's the price I was looking at the price and rejected brain breakdown and then another another bounce EMA eight like what are we talking about is this the magic is it magic no I'm it's just an exponential moving average it's more sensitive to short-term price movement and it works you watch it you're trading Bitcoin pretty much everything but especially Bitcoin right um and then I basically said in the next video another day I bet you said if you're trading this and not watching daily email you are literally asleep at the wheel there's no excuses look at this thing it's it was unbelievable this is a couple days later yeah I remember I remember getting fired up about this where I was like I can't like like how can you not be it's just watch the eight look at the prices telling you your job you need to listen to the price like don't pick your own moving averages have the same moving average for every chart you look at and then when the price tells you to pay attention to one of them do it ema8 works don't use all of them use the eight fine or use the 12. you can do 12 26. I use 834 I don't use the 26 because I'm I'm using the middle Bollinger the ma20 the simple um you know and by the way again all this stuff is just in this playlist go to the tutorial master class I explain all the moving averages right again if you get confused about anything I'm saying so it's like hey pay attention use the ema8 and so this is really interesting some of you may remember this this is when we started to form this descending triangle so it's a little bit later and this is after um you know kind of all these uh at these further rejections and it's you're kind of observing that the price is dropping and remember I don't know if you guys remember guys and gals folks remember you know every time it dropped down here we found buyers right we started to find buyers every time it dropped down here if you go to the four hour chart it was a little bit better Illustrated we had a descending triangle descending triangle with a flat base of support you kind of actually draw it this way let me just there you go oh Chet how can you ignore this you're not ignoring it it's captured in the trend right there's no line there is only a trend so you understand a trend line is about identifying a trend a trend not identifying a line and this is just a little bit of move above the line but it's basically still price action captured within this trend line and you more or less have a falling level of Supply that means more anxious sellers right a descending hypotenuse right a right angle triangle descending hypotenuse with a flat base of support right look at that it's what's your measure move height of the triangle boom right right down to basically 18 5 18 6. it would I mean this this whole move down from 25k was super textbook I mean it was ridiculous and and basically what was interesting though is you're watching you know either the ema8 is going to break because it's rejected or this this base of support is going to break so you kind of know what to watch you say one of these two things will give us a clue um you know because you could bull break break from here and you could bounce up very easily and test you know you know the top top of this prior consolidation pattern but you're going to watch those things too this is an interesting tweet and I want to talk about this so what is that Chad what's a w it can still w What does that mean what does that mean it can still W four hour daily it can still W this is like right here at the bottom it can still W because what I'm telling you is you know we can still dump it's a double bottom but a double bottom this I'll show you what I'll show you what's not a double bottom all right boom like that's not a double bottom that's two tests that's two thrusts that's just that's just two two tests in an area a double bottom is when it comes up breaks above the peak this is the peak this is the peak this is the trough you have time interval between the troughs um you have time interval between the Peaks it's valid in classical charting height measured move right A B C very simple stuff so you look at double bottoms you have variations of a double bottom or a w you know we talked about the atom and Eve we don't have to do all this but in this context you're thinking about three types of W's you're thinking about the W with the higher low which I think is not as ideal because I think it's less likely to it's counterintuitive because it actually I mean it suggests that there's more demand but for my feeling not my feeling just my experience you need this I'll get the third type so that's the first type higher low and you're the second type same low Right double bottom pure and then you have the lower low and this is per Bitcoin been the money been the kind of the best one with a slightly lower low you trigger all the stop losses and then you go so we can still W I'm saying we can still W even though this thing looks terrible oh treasure you're getting bullish no I'm basically trying to add context I'm always trying to add context because I'm thinking about consolidation within larger ranges within larger ranges I kind of get I kind of have a sense of I've contextualized everything it's as bad as it looks it can still W lower low and the second thrust is ideal for stop loss trigger and bounce is what I'm basically saying you know the best case scenario and that would help form a panic bottom which we haven't had yet we haven't had the lower we haven't had a panic bottom the first low if we come back and go to like 16-5 and break we might be able to get enough Panic um we wouldn't do it here but it would have to be more like this it would have to you know did it come back like that you have to get and basically get the lower low if you get to like maybe 16 5 that's the W with the lower low your breakout still 25 25k you get a panic bottom because everyone's like okay that's it it lost 17.5 it's going to 12. but if it goes
to like 16 and quickly gets back up above 17.5 then you have a spring right boom boom lost support you come back above then you get a spring so you get all this kind of the potential playable scenarios you're always on watch for that so I'm kind of looking at that and thinking what might make what might make sense you know because I've been talking about 12 to 14K uh you know since Bitcoin was around 40K I mean since March on bitcoin live I've been talking about 12 to 14K right but I'm still open to the idea that we may not get there and I want to know like what would be a scenario that would give a panic bottom but also might get us there so here we go boom and there's so basically I talked about the descending triangle which I just talked about before this is just a tweet where me um and basically say hey we're working on a descending triangle oh it would you know invalidate around 20.5 so you want to kind of think about any pattern not only where it confirms but you want to think about uh when the pattern would be invalidated uh thank you appreciate that brother um so you want to think about when the thank you best crypto content I'm just being me so it's when it confirms like a Head and Shoulder right when the when the right shoulder invalidates or when it confirms neck Baseline is broken I'm pointing out the pattern to you I gave you this little handy chart what to look at yada yada and then boom tags 6 18 675. so I'm saying that this it even though it did go a little bit lower I think 18 5 and basically saying this is kind of played out you see right here like this is kind of played out at this point we've played out that move which basically means you want to be on guard to start to look for a bounce um you know back on bitcoin live I don't know that I really talked about on Twitter but back in Bitcoin live when we lost 22.5 was the daily chart and back and pick online when we lost 22.5 boom I started basically saying you know we don't really have well-defined support but I think we're going to go to at least 18.5
and it's essentially what we did so it's kind of nice to see how that played out then you start to look for about you got your spring boom and then you know we'll get to what just happened um so descending triangle descending triangle has played out now we have five tweets left uh six years off here we go escalator up elevator down 60 days of price action wiped out in 23 long grind up and then boom right back essentially here 18-6 this is right back to range lows this it's played out like this is you know you you as as Peter Brandt calls it the popcorn trade you know popcorn to the pan bounces up boom comes right back down this is the popcorn move the round Tripper um you know 60 days wiped out in 23. this is this is kind of a more I'm giving you more strategy right so this was interesting this is as um ethereum and Bitcoin were both bouncing again so this is right when was this there we go oopsie let's go there let's kind of get a little bit more granular so it's it's like all right I'm thinking bounce here a little bit you can see I'm thinking bounce a little bit um but I'm basically saying you know given the backdrop right um I'd rather either short Bitcoin or long ethereum right I'm not I don't want a long Bitcoin and I don't want to short ethereum like I want to play both of these with their Trends and their strength there at this point had been relative strength in ethereum to you know versus Bitcoin so I'm basically saying um because they have a pivot right BTC at pivot right what is BT pivot what does that mean 22 5 is the pivot um you know I'd rather fade BTC a pivot and then close it and flip long and close that BT she's short so basically this means like let's say the BTC shortcuts failed fails and it's a theoretical BTC long I'm actually gonna go long eth Instead at that point because it had relative strength the way things have been Trading so it's one of those things where I'm only going to play each of those only one way and I'm trying to explain it uh in that sense rather than playing both both ways right because I'm trying to trade with the trend um and then here we go BTC visual uh so I know I'm kind of glossing over this a little bit I hope that point makes sense where you know I'm still looking to fade this I'm still thinking you know if we bounce here I'm still thinking that I'm looking to fade Bitcoin right um you know I'm certainly looking to fade here right on the underside of the descending triangle definitely and you could have gone long there because it makes this a spring but so I'd rather short Bitcoin here but a Bitcoin breaks from here and I'm thinking the whole Market's gonna rise I'm then going to shift to long in ethereum rather than long in Bitcoin because I you know because ethereum had a better bounce last time and has relative strength right so you want to trade with the trend as the point I'm making uh and then PTC visual this is quoted another tweet and I basically said and so I'm kind of setting setting kind of expectations or I'm kind of talking about My Philosophy my strategy here um and nope let's try that again and thanks for being patient 42 minutes we're wrapping up this is a very long one this might even be like a I might even put this in the in the master class webinars but it doesn't you know we'll see um so at this point we've bounced a bunch right around 20.3 but I'm basically saying I'm trying to set expectations this is really important okay and I'm quoting and then visual so I said the words I'm like well people don't know what I'm talking about so I drew the visual basically said here's the pivot and I pointed out the arrows this was the support resistance rejected right we talked about that triple Divergence outside bars this was the initial uh the initial resistant that was broken failed to hold even uh Morning doji Star bounce came back it did hold and now it's a level we're watching it that's the higher low high or low higher low higher low that was the higher low so on the way down for Bulls it could very easily you know catch a bit here it'd be it would be a very logical spot for the price to Pivot and bounce that's the pivot but now that it failed it's resistance and so we need to set up these binary above and below levels where it's bullish or it's bearish because we're trying to structure our wrist or risk we're trying to picture uh Define levels ideally the price price is defined and and not us but we need to rather identify levels that are momentum pivot levels this is a momentum pivot level and basically I'm saying even though we've had this ridiculous bounce I mean this candle was uh was was absurd it was beautiful this green candle was gorgeous uh I wow right and it was after the um you know after the uh after the spring recaptured the low of the descending triangle beautiful follow through and you're thinking wow I'm ready to fomo but I'm I'm preparing a short I'm starting to I'm thinking about shorting up to Route 22.5 because that's the pivot we lost that level you want to fade I'm basically saying like like let's keep it simple from a trend following standpoint you want to fade any move below 22.5 because it lost that and that's the major pivot level and I
talked about the fact the initial bear Target from the loss of the higher low has been met right so a mean reversion bound here is only logical what does this mean yeah it makes sense for us to bounce here because the descending triangle played out and we already dropped 25 to 18.5 off of the the triple Divergence and the outside bars this is what I'm saying this is what I'm saying it's saying okay yeah like it's not because it's not it's not a straight line down this is basically saying we're probably going to pause here and the price will extend attempt to establish a w trough that means a second low right the trough the low of the w above 22.5 watch W Peak what does that mean oh Chad you're so cryptic really I mean basically saying like you're short uh you know you're short below this level but if you're above this level we're watching the peak peek of The W boom boom boom boom above here we're thinking pay attention probably go long confirm add on that break unknown texture or structure of this of this trough maybe get a lower low maybe it's here unknown but we're kind of on Watt for some type of a w all right and that boom there simple tread Trend falling point and then boom here we go all right pay attention this is uh you know what is that five words five words with some numbers in there I'm basically saying you know because I know people have me on alert I'm not trying to abuse that and this is one where you want to have me on alert because I'm saying all right you know this is it you know I'm telling you this is it right this is the key spot we're basically right here it's in this candle let's see where it was boom right there right at the top because it's 22.5 that's the key level you know it's and we went a little bit higher but we
topped off and what's interesting I actually got caught on a long hair I went long and my stop loss you know a stop loss is like you know 22.3 so it's like a tiny a tiny a tiny loss but you know I follow my own thinking what I've said you know I follow what I say to you and I say above 22.5 what you know watch the peak I'm saying okay I'm thinking above 25 we're probably going 24.5 25 Point K so I took that trade right it's 20 trying to fit flip it and it's flipping it I'm long it was like 22-6 22 550 I took a long right here but then I got stopped out right which is fine I have no problem with that um you know and what that illustrates is the fact that that's a really bad sign that's a momentum reversal you have the key resistance uh boom boom boom it did this came back it held it you came back below and it looked like you're about to flip it again boom then it came back below that's a deviation that's an up thrust that's a big momentum reversal signal you pay attention to and then the follow through on it was just obscene I mean we had a we had a ridiculous candle today um you know a pretty crazy standpoint uh let's see uh WP and trying to flip 22.5 and then this is back to really illustrating that level um so that's let's see boom 22.5 so that's that's I mean that's how it played out that was it you know you got right up to the key level that's why we watch uh that's why we watch these key levels right that's why we watch these key levels and it it's been it's kind of been fun to watch even though it's it's been a bit of a wild ride you know from the rising wedge the outside bars ema8 rejections the descending triangle descending triangle playing out mean reversion rally keeping in mind the 22 5K level then all this price action right here um at 22.5 flipping it and then failing to hold it so that is that is what I wanted to say we're 48 minutes in that was a lot of fun I'm kind of talking through uh thank you appreciate that Chef uh that's uh hey good to see you my friend I know you stay up late appreciate that I appreciate that um and we're having fun thank you so much this is textbook masterclass content faux show so listen um I could go on longer I could talk about ethereum we could talk about these altcoins but it's it's 50 minutes and uh we'll leave it here this has been an awesome show um I don't do these a lot because I am a founding Analyst at Bitcoin live I'm doing twice a week a full market update there I I don't miss a video I literally twice a week you're gonna hear from me whether you like it or not I stop and um I give a market update I'm just one member on a team it's a world-class team if you're serious about learning how to trade if you enjoyed this video tonight it's more or less what I do answer all the questions uh from the uh wonderful members um the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every Trader should know you can get it in four formats it's um narrated by me in the audiobook so I would encourage you to check that out um you can get it for free on my YouTube check out the playlist I think I'm going to do lesson 17 tomorrow I've got 16 of the 50 I'm doing one lesson at a time I'm going to try to do lesson 17 tomorrow uh to get that out um let's see and that's about it so listen uh let's remove that folks I want to say thank you I thank you I want to thank you for being patient with me I haven't been doing these videos much lately I've been kind of changing some things in my life moving around doing this and that but um I'm glad you joined joined tonight it's been great to have you and I hope that you'll stick around check out some of these other videos and we'll see you next time so look at this dancing going and slide off into the evening in style foreign
2022-09-17 06:50
