$BTC Market moves explained - 8/4/22
me what is up what's up what is up you know what you're doing you're you're hanging out watching a guy in an orange mask okay that's what's going on all right i'm big chad i'm just having fun i'm just having fun it's my honor it's my privilege i love being able to click a couple buttons on my computer uh i'm able to go live i'm able to talk to you and like for whatever reason there's value you enjoy it i know why there's value i've put in a lot of time in the game to get to this point i've suffered greatly learned a few things and i try to pass them on all that so anyway thank you for showing up today is thursday august 4th 2012 uh 22 when's the last time we did one of these folks we're on um real quick we're on let's see we are on youtube chad's trading last time we did this is a quick market update this will go on the quick market update playlist uh last one was seven five wow it's been almost a full month since i've done one of these so i'm on youtube at chad's trading you're watching this please subscribe it'll help me out it's a re this is a super grind right i'm at on on uh twitter i'm at you know 277 you know almost 280k uh 280k youtube is really a super grind the truth is i would be a lot more act active but i'm a founding analyst at bitcoin live twice a week i do a full market update i stop whatever i'm doing in my life i'm on vacation i'm sick i'm traveling i do an update midweek on wednesday end of the week on sunday it helps me focus i look at the chart i've got kind of a watch list i go over i kind of grind it out take the requests and it's important to me and that's what you need to do to get better so as you know as an as an aside please consider checking out bitcoin live it's a world class world class team one i'm proud to be part of you know be not you don't have to pay for stuff get it for free go to my youtube chat straight trading start with uh the tutorials playlist this is going to get you started on support resistance moving averages all that great stuff um and then check out the long form interview series i just did an interview with peter brandt who's like a super first of all i was like a great guy but he's a legit pioneer i had interviewed him and talked about his book take a good look at that diary of a professional commodities trader it's an excellent book really enjoyed it made me kind of think about things and i like that um so check that out i'll have some more um interviewees in the months to come you know you may know i am the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know has been incredibly well received i mean look at that these reviews are ridiculous it's that's ridiculous i mean it's pretty good you gotta admit it's at least pretty good so um but it's just from the heart it's my mistakes right it's my mistakes so it's like me talking to myself don't do this again don't do that again and anyway thank you so much you can get it on kindle audiobook uh narrated by me look at this let's see this is pretty cool author chats naderator narrator chad publisher chad's that's pretty cool so i i've narrated it check that out hardcover and paperback but listen you want it for free go to my youtube check out the playlist trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know i'm doing one lesson at a time for you for free i just did lesson 16 this week check that out so i'm gonna check in with the chat room we have my friend here from algeria uh bitcoin live member in the house tony great to have you yo chad's listen folks i want to know where you are in the world um by the way i did a spaces earlier earlier in the day i talked to a lot of you that was great i've recently uploaded that to my youtube channel check out the twitter spaces playlist i up uploaded one today looks like i didn't properly catalog it so i will um have to do that but it is my most recent update uh let's see videos and boom two hours ago check that out great conversation folks where are you in the world we're all connecting here we're here to talk about bitcoin i'm a chart guy i'm a newbie helper um just someone who enjoys trading i think a lot about technical analysis i think a lot about how to communicate uh you know the experiences of going being a trader how to teach it i think a lot about all this it's important to me so uh and you're important to me as well so let's see here portugal great to see you nice to see you as well from portugal puerto rico uh tampa in the house that's great that is great bitcoin live member since 2017 marco that's awesome great to see you marco i have to say i'm really proud of our team um it's great i mean you know it's great it's been we've we've been given we've been given the juice for a while germany good to see you ohio o-h-i-o nice to see you hitting up that bob evans restaurant chain out there in ohio bitcoin live groupie uh sean from australia another australian here another aussie uh from melbourne atlanta puerto rico bronx new york what's happening ireland listen i love all of you i want you to know that we're just people man massachusetts mass holes in the house you know new zealand israel alabama look we're all just people you know kind of happen to be enjoying the same habit the same hobby at the same time so um i think it's super cool that you're here i'm here and i hope i can add some value so here's what i've decided to do um you know if i get a little time i'll take your questions uh from the chat room india of course venice love bitcoin live i love you detroit uh texas and calgary that i love canada by the way so listen um i've selected a few tweets uh let's see live streaming on youtube here's what i wanna do i wanna cut what i usually do and but i would love to do youtube more often um but really it's all about bitcoin live i kind of give that like the best i've got and you can't like an artist i love painting i love i love music i love everything you can't like just create art you can't just like it's hard to do that every day all day so i i kind of saved myself for that but um i want to give a little a little bit of love here so that's what i do i'm gonna i'm really gonna talk about some tweets um some tweets since the last time we have uh i've done this so let's see so go check out here's me on july 20th where we go what am i talking chad what oh you're so cryptic chad what do you mean all right here we go let's dig in folks students get ready all right start paying attention right july 20th go check out february 6th to 10th on the daily chart what does that mean what what would that why would you say that well a couple clues here we just started to close above the daily ema 34 the yellow line where the price had rejected in june where the price had rejected end of may where the price had rejected where the prices rejected right we get that point so what happened before that though if we're kind of going back you know we're talking about our double top up thrust outside bar you know yadda yadda i have a million videos talking about the construction of the top um but what's kind of most interesting here we have that failed double bottom we see that that failed you know that kind of cemented the bottom of the range which then became resistance but what's most important daily ema 34. look at the price rejecting off that exponential moving average ema 34 ema 34 ema34 if you review my tweets other folks there's other folks too who are a little bit more prudent who pointed out hey tower top maybe forming candle weakness uh relief rally and you know right here people were talking about you know plan b plan c you know playing you know 100 million whatever people getting really excited but it's just a relief rally bounce to the ema 34 bounce the ema 34 reject reject but then all of a sudden here we go start closing above the daily ema 34. so the concept i've discussed many times there's stage analysis right that's another way to look at it but you have a down a down trend has to go sideways before it goes up the red light turns yellow before it turns green and this type of a phase of price action that we got all right in february beginning of february through march we got that kind of sideways uh where the price started to you know recapture that moving average that was a big deal kind of set up this price range set up the breakout level which you broke out of we eventually um you know and then rejected the ma200 it turned into a deviation or false move um then you had really kind of a nine out of ten sell signal here on that day april 6th um yada yada we've talked about all this but what i say here let's go back to did i move it there it is here we go go i said here on the 20th go check out february 6th to 10th uh appreciate the lesson vince i appreciate you i'm just having fun i'm literally i'm just having fun if i'm not having fun i wouldn't be here you know so it's cool it's fun to be good at something right it's fun to be good at something and you get good at something with a lot of practice and i know i can get so much better i have so many weaknesses anyway that's it for another time so i say here go look at february 6th to 10th when what are we doing here february 6th boom why did i say that because it was immediately after immediately after we started to close above the ema 34. what did we do we kind of set the sideways chop range what i'm saying here to you is set your expectations uh look i'm just i've just survived that's it you'll be if you survive you'll be wise that's just to survive manage your risk you know be prudent luck luck helps you know go check out february 6th through 10th and i'm basically saying you know expect some sideways here we're going to probably chop here sideways because the downtrend is turned sideways and so what did we do it's very int it's somewhat similar so far where i said check out february 10th through 6th where is that exactly i'm going to do that let's add that back and then february 6th through 10th uh let's see ema 34 boom boom boom okay all right so like right here and so you started to watch that i mean that's the beginning of the sideways and what have we done i mean it's not like exactly but it's somewhat similar where you have the two peaks you have the initial high you come back you base you set another high right you set another high and you come back so it's not that dissimilar and the point you want to take away from this is that we're in this is just a sideways chop range that's not what i'm trying to do i don't know what that is what is that circle i've never done that before so you have kind of a um you set that kind of chop range here we're going sideways we're going to establish some price structure in this case it was the breakout level of 45. let me just give me pardon me folks just bear with me today okay it was that you know 45 46k breakout level so you know it's reasonable to kind of stop and think all right do you know are we going to develop a breakout level here um possibly here you know if we grind it up but we're we're more open-minded in the daily time frame given um you know that we started to close above the daily ema 34. that was a big level um if you don't know why just watch like any of my prior videos uh especially watch the one a month ago that's going to help you get caught up definitely uh so let's see here so let's clean that up a little bit clean that up right there let's get rid of that all right what's next keep it simple horizontal strap what am i doing here what am i trying to say chad's what like what is the purpose of this this is after a big move down right um this is after a breakdown so let's just get context on when this happened and we'll kind of step in and i'm just this is to help you kind of interpret my tweets so this is actually a little bit out of order but i have another tweet that will address kind of the candle construction here on these load up lower to upper bollinger band moves um but here you know the point here is that a reversal is going to attempt you know often attempt to do that kind of stair step right and what does that mean that when you set a high and you break it you want to see it respected kind of on the way back you get the breakout you get the throwback right the breakout the throwback the breakout the throwba the throwback and then you get these kind of you know consolidation phases resetting the oscillators pretty basic stuff we talked about it so you know cut thus far you know at that point when i when i had put out this tweet we were you know sort of attempting to do to do that we have kind of the top of this range here where a little bit of consolidation break rejection break rejection break break through come back bullish throwback and as the price um at this this is just how i think i'm trying to explain to you how i'm thinking and listen honestly i tweet a lot sometimes i just wake up in the morning and i see something i tweet it and people are like oh how come you're not explaining everything you mean i just i'm trying to i don't know whatever just bear with me and this is to help you understand all of it um in this position you're you know after you've kind of rejected here at the upper bollinger heading back towards a support range right what just clean it up you're kind of heading back towards a support range so you're already dropping to lower time frames in this candle and this candle you're thinking okay that was the low you start to go long here maybe even right you're thinking okay maybe like a bull flag breaking out or something there's your throwback you're looking at this high you're kind of looking at that you're looking as a deviation below maybe you're back up above and you're thinking i'm already long and then whoosh you get that big drop down you're dropping a lower time frame and what you're trying to just do is is um identify logical support levels levels that are that are well defined that you can use to structure your risk learn the ched's way learn your own way i'm just giving you what i got i'm giving you what i got hopefully it helps um you want to you want to let that structure develop and you're kind of trying to you know structure your risk or your base your trades based on that so um keep it simple horizontal strategy and this is saying start paying attention look at this we have we're kind of dropping into a support zone here uh this is the daily chart so at this point i mean i'm still kind of known to be a bear you know no doubt at this point but you know i'm showing you a chart where we've closed above the daily ma50 you know five or six candles in a row and we're doing a bullish throwback so i'm presenting to you about this is a bullish chart i'm presenting to you and that's why it's important to i mean whatever you think is probably going to happen or if inevitably most likely to happen you still want to follow the price action and let that be what guides your your strategy um you know i talked about here i say on july 25th it should bounce here if the bottom is in and we are about to stair step what does that mean so boom and it almost it was pretty close and i'm basically saying if the bottom is in then we shouldn't we shouldn't break back below this level right you know that's what's incredibly important so we're gonna go to a little bit of a lower time frame and go a little bit lower time frame there's your one hour i mean you know it's not perfect all right but i'm basically saying right about here if the bottom is in we should be bouncing off of this support we should be bouncing off of this support here right that's what i'm saying uh once you recapture you flip resistance right you should you should be able to turn it into support and that's kind of the gist um of what i'm trying to say here and it got went a little bit lower but it found support here on the four-hour ma200 bounced and then made another high but it's interesting to note here on the four hour at least while we're here you get that up thrust right always pay attention to when you was that's not what i'm trying to do again i feel like there's someone else messing with my keyboard i promise you it's not me um you know you establish a high and then you then you stop then you break that high and you come basically right back below it you failed to hold it right you always want to pay attention to that that's a big momentum signal that was a pretty easy short signal um and then you can see here the pullback or the bearish retest here on the sp high wave spinning top on this four hour time frame anyway that's just kind of an aside these are all things i've talked about in my master class webinars and my prior market updates so what do we have next that makes me actually makes a great point before i move on i want to do a little bit of an overview we've i've just so far i've been talking about um who made that point i want to give you credit uh where is it here we go patrick it's a great point you know i really should address that i've been talking about kind of daily chart construction i i really want to iterate and this is something i've been talking about in bitcoin live now for for a while we need to think about the weekly ma200 the blue line and the ema 8 as as a resistance um you know i talked about this on my on my uh update about a week or whatever five days ago whenever four or five whatever sunday was that you know we're you could see people taking this um candle close here above the ma200 is like a buy signal but for me it looked like a potential trap because it had yet to flip the ema eight and ema eight is no joke certainly historically and certainly recently you know it's primary uptrend support and then it becomes resistance um you know if you've studied you know bitcoin in a weekly time frame you should know what the ema 8 is doing it's important when you have these moving averages coming together they kind of converge and they create a zone of resistance so i kind of posited or or put forth um the idea that this candle you know sets sets up on his fa on its face it's a really nice bull trap you got the higher high higher body uh close higher body wick but it's below the eight it shows an initial rejection at the eight on the candle closing basis um and really kind of just based on my experience i'd look at this and say okay you know when you're this close you might as well as well wait for it to kind of close above the eight eight is really important um you know otherwise you're possibly buying kind of towards the top of the relief rally so that's the weekly context that's really important right so that's the weekly context um and then the daily context they're a little bit different because the daily the daily is going to give you a little bit more flexibility because you can still support um a bear thesis really all the way up to kind of 28k and then maybe even you know daily ma200 should that kind of um should it kind of converge i mean you still have that much room in a bear argument you can still um conceptualize all of this uh you know the bullishness quote unquote the bare channel the rising channel in a correction as being just similar to here i mean boom you bounce get a nice little rally ma200 rejection right what if we do that what if we kind of break out of a horizontal structure 27k reject again ma200 i mean that would be like you're screwed if you're along because that would be such neat clean consolidation where it just set up perfectly um to really trap you i went long here i mean i i went i went long uh back at the 45k break i tweeted out that like that you like pretty much have to go long here because it's a really well and i was like it's like chad you're a bear i'm like yeah but look boom i lost my bollinger bands how did that happen that's interesting let me just add those back uh pardon me folks sorry about that favorites maybe bollinger bands all right now i feel a little bit more comfortable look i talked about you know there's your support level the failed double bottom resistance resistance resistance when you have that well defined level you know we broke out even i went long right they made a little profit i slide my stop loss up rather early i don't want to sit around i don't let a trade own me i want to go to bed at least you know stop loss and profit at you know minimally right i'm sorry break even if not you know in profit and then boom you know and then what is this what is this little tweezer here get the tweezer top you know i called that out on twitter i've talked about it in prior streams so you know you get a little bit more flexibility you've got a little bit more room here on the daily chart you get a couple level levels higher you higher you know you can still support a bare thesis on the daily chart a little bit more than you can on the weekly charts i'm kind of looking at this a dual focus so that's a great point thank you for bringing that up so let's get through this i have a couple more and two more tweets here we go someone had mentioned divergence absolutely what are we doing here what are we doing big chad's tweet on uh july 19th big ched's tweet uh on july 19th it says bic uh bitcoin and ethereum bearish divergence so on this tweet uh let's see uh let's see bitcoin and we've got rsi what happened here all right let's try to refresh that sorry about that folks try that again that is weird all right trading view is messing with me tonight but i can hang i can totally hang let's do that let's drop it up top so here's what we want to look at okay when you have when you make a higher high you want to see that confirmed by the on balance volume okay so in this case we have the price and you're calculating divergence based on a candle body close so here we have the higher high based on the candle body and we have the lower high based on the oscillator in this case it's a an index oscillator the on balance volume is adding up uh the buy in the cell volume right the binds the cell uh you know the volume and the green and the red candles and it's essentially not confirming that we have a higher high so we have the the bearish divergence leading us into the candlestick signals the candlestick weakness this is my final tweet that i want to focus on which i think is kind of interesting which gives us um you know something to talk about here let's pull this tweet up here so we want to talk about prior cluster candle weakness candle weakness you know we're in a we're in a channel right we're in a bear channel uh if you think about it is it a bear flag is it not it's gone a little bit long based on classical charting rules to be a bear um flag really a bear flag should complete um you know at about half 50 percent by about 50 percent of the distance of the flagpole it's just a bare channel and you have this bare channel mark with this progression of higher highs and higher lows thus far right we've talked about those 20.8 that are important all right um but
you're seeing interesting japanese candlestick signals japanese candlestick signals are great short term signals they're they're especially if you use them with bollinger bands look at this nice progression of the green candles from the lower the upper bollinger the long leg doji and then another doji so you're already seeing candle weakness right here telling you basically you know if you're a ball you're thinking i should probably move my stop loss up at this point and then boom flush back to lower bollinger eventually make a new high and then you get more candle weakness get the spinning top you have another spinning top or doji and at the time of this tweet uh july 22nd right boom july 22nd observing three small bodies this is before the candle had um basically seeing say showing that we're seeing a little bit of weakness here we had a pretty good flush from that level 22k all the way back down to 20.5 so in terms of these kind of smaller channel signals japanese candlestick singles are really japanese candlesticks are just incredibly valuable for showing you momentum right the momentum is an expression the the candle bodies are an expression of the momentum a big green candle into also big but a smaller candle than the prior candle boom spinning top doji and then we have the exact same thing here exact same thing here boom big green candle big as well but smaller green candle right spinning top shooting star spinning top shooting star and we've just been kind of drifting down uh since that point kind of drifting down towards um really the level that needs to hold but i think we you know 21.7 would it surprise me to see a bounce off of that level not really so i'm kind of you know i'm not really going to close the door in the bulls just yet because we are trading above the 34. um you know february march did set up a nice breakout signal even though it failed um you know so i'm still you know if if if we're gonna stair step that would be for me a logical level kind of right around 21.7 k so that was pretty fun let's see what's up with the um pump likes for chats thank you so much 331 watching whatever 91 likes who cares i mean if you like thank you i appreciate it definitely please do but if you don't it's totally cool we're all just hanging out i'm really just happy to be here um of course i am on twitter at big chats you can find my book on uh amazon chad's trading i'm not [ __ ] straight trading trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know kindle audiobook hardcover and paperback thank you so much for the feedback thank you so much uh for all of your your words um i love your support really appreciate that um if you don't want to buy the book it's totally cool i have it for free on my youtube chad's trading go to the playlist trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know i will eventually have the entire book for free for you um i didn't mention this before but i've uh before but i have other books uh in the works tr um book three i don't have it with me but i'm actually i was editing it tonight um book three the quotes book should be out this year i've sever several other book projects in the works so uh keep an eye out for that um check out all the great free stuff on youtube watch the interviews watch the quick market updates and i'll tell you if you're serious about learning how to trade you definitely want to consider joining bitcoin live i it's it's totally legit i've been doing market updates there for four years i do a twice a week full full market update i cover chart requests answer all the questions and you know when you sign up you get access to everything not just my stuff it's a world-class team absolute world-class team one that i'm really honored to be part of so um you know thank you for considering that and just thanks for watching tonight thanks for hanging out here with me it is august 4th 2022 and i just want to say thank you thank you for being part of the team thank you for um enjoying this space with me and um i wish you well i wish you well i wish all of you well thank you for joining me from all around the world um it's it's wonderful i love that we can connect uh from all around the world so thank you so much for that all right let's get this party kicked off i
2022-08-09 11:39
